The Write up
My game “ball drop challenge” is a game that involves probability as the outcome depends on
the arrangement of the dowels. You would find this type of game at carnivals, arcades, or
amusement parks. This game would cost a dollar per attempt or 2 tickets. The prizes for a game
like this could be either trinkets, or more tickets for different games.
Instructions
1. Place the small ball at the top of the dowel board. The ball will then bounce off the dowel
as it goes down.
2. Once the ball reaches the bottom, observe the slot it lands on.
3. If it lands on 3 that is 100 points, if it lands on two that is 25 points and if it lands on 1
that is 50 points.
4. If you play with others, repeat three times, until one of you has the highest score for the
prize.
5. Reset game
Game description:
The Write up
You need one ball to play the game.
The Write up
The possibilities of all of the possible outcomes is ⅓ or 33.33%.
I don't know the value of the prizes but if you score the highest amount of points you get the
best prize or the most valuable prize. To calculate the expected value of winning this game you
need to multiply the probability of winning by the value of the prize for each possible outcome
and then sum these values.
For an examples:
Slot 1:10$ prize
Slot 2: 5$ prize
Slot 3: 2$ prize
Expected value= (⅓)($10)+(⅓)($5)+(⅓)($2)=($5.67)
For a game to be fair it means that if a player wins or loses money when they play they should
expect to get the same amount of money they spend to play the game.
No my game is not fair after calculating the probabilities and outcomes, but if i make slot 3:
$0.99 prize prize, slot 2: $0.30 prize, and slot 1: $.59
Expected value= (⅓ )($.099)+(⅓)($0.59)+(⅓)($0.30)=$0.63
Which is the fairest it can get to have a good prize
My reflection:
I was not able to attend the carnival so I can only do part of this. This project enhanced my
understanding of probability providing me with a hands -on experience of what it looks like. It
helped me observe how the distribution of points and prizes among different slots affects the
likelihood of winning or losing. I learned about the relationship between probabilities,expected
values, and outcomes. After doing this, I wouldn't change any aspects of my game except it
being fair. I would have changed it so that the prize amount was higher and fair at the same
time. By changing the prize distribution among the three slots next time it can equalize the prize
value, adjust the probability, and balance the expected value so that players neither have to
gain or lose money when playing this game. Overall, if i change the distribution of prizes among
the slots it can make the game more fair ensuring that all players have a reasonable chance of
winning prizes that are equal to the cost to play. I can see myself using probability in my daily
life like playing games, whether it's drawing cards or rolling dice. Most of the time almost all
games use probability. Another way is when you are guessing how many of an item is in a jar,
like at doctor appointments they have these or when predicting which team will win a game.
Another more useful way of using probability in my daily life while working in retail, you could
predict customer preferences, anticipation sales, or even the likelihood of clothing selling well.
Overall, after doing this project it has taught me a lot more about probability then what i knew
before.
