Environmental Geology / 4th Stage Dr.

Kareem Khwedim

Global Climate—Past, Present, and Future

We all experience and deal with weather on a daily basis—sun and

clouds, wind, rain, snow—and that weather can vary considerably from
day to day or even hour to hour. Climate is, in a sense, weather averaged
over long periods of time; it is less variable on a human timescale. Both
weather fluctuations and regional climate can affect the operation or
intensity of the surface processes examined in the previously, and thus the
impact they have on human activities. While we can’t do much about a
day’s weather, it has become increasingly evident that humans can
influence climate on a regional or global scale.

Major Controls on Global Climate;

The Greenhouse Effect
Climate is the result of the interplay of a number of factors. The main
source of energy input to the earth is sunlight, which warms the land
surface, which, in turn, radiates heat into the atmosphere. Globally, how
much surface heating occurs is related to the sun’s energy output and how
much of the sunlight falling on earth actually reaches the surface.
Incoming sunlight may be blocked by cloud cover or, by dust and sulfuric
acid droplets from volcanic eruptions. In turn, heat (infrared rays)
radiating outward from earth’s surface may or may not be trapped by
certain atmospheric gases, a phenomenon known as the greenhouse
effect. In the atmosphere, molecules of various gases, especially water
vapor and carbon dioxide, act similarly to the greenhouse’s glass. Light
reaches the earth’s surface, warming it, and the earth radiates infrared
rays back. But the longer-wavelength infrared rays are trapped by these
gas molecules, and a portion of the radiated heat is thus trapped in the
atmosphere. Hence the term “greenhouse effect.” (figure 10.1 .) As a
result of the greenhouse effect, the atmosphere stays warmer than it
would if that heat radiated freely back out into space. In moderation, the
greenhouse effect makes life as we know it possible: without it, average
global temperature would be closer to -17°C (about 1°F) than the roughly
15°C (59°F) it now is. However, one can have too much of a good thing.
The evolution of a technological society has meant rapidly increasing
energy consumption. Historically, we have relied most heavily on carbon-
rich fuels—wood, coal, oil, and natural gas—to supply that energy. These
probably will continue to be important energy sources for several decades
at least. One combustion by-product that all of these fuels have in
common is carbon dioxide gas (CO 2).
A “greenhouse gas” in general is any gas that traps infrared rays and thus
promotes atmospheric warming. Water vapor is, in fact, the most
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abundant greenhouse gas in the earth’s atmosphere, but human activities

do not substantially affect its abundance, and it is in equilibrium with
surface water and oceans. Excess water in the atmosphere readily falls out
as rain or snow. Some of the excess carbon dioxide is removed by
geologic processes, but since the start of the so called Industrial Age in
the mid-nineteenth century, the amount of carbon dioxide in the air has
increased by an estimated 40% and its concentration continues to climb (
fi gure 10.2 ). If the heat trapped by carbon dioxide were proportional to
the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air, the increased carbon
dioxide would by now have caused sharply increased greenhouse- effect
heating of the earth’s atmosphere.

Climate and Ice Reserves

Early discussions of climate change related to increasing greenhouse-gas
concentrations in the atmosphere tended to focus heavily on the prospect
of global warming and the resultant melting of earth’s reserves of ice,
especially the remaining ice sheets. If all the ice melted, sea level could
rise by over 75 meters from the added water alone. About 20% of the
world’s land area would be submerged. Many millions, perhaps billions,
of people now living in coastal or low-lying areas would be displaced,
since a large fraction of major population centers grew up along
coastlines and rivers. (The Statue of Liberty would be up to her neck in
water). Also, raising of the base levels of streams draining into the ocean
would alter the stream channels and could cause significant flooding
along major rivers, and this would not require nearly such drastic sea-
level rise.
Such large-scale melting of ice sheets would take time, perhaps several
thousand years. On a shorter timescale, the problem could still be
significant. Continued intensive fossil-fuel use could double the level of
carbon dioxide in the atmosphere before the middle of this century. This
would produce a projected temperature rise of 4° to 8°C (7°–14°F), which
would be sufficient to melt at least the West Antarctic ice sheet
completely in a few hundred years. The resulting 5- 6 meter rise in sea
level, would nevertheless be enough to flood many coastal cities and
ports, along with most of the world’s beaches. This would be both
inconvenient and extremely expensive. Meanwhile, the smaller alpine
glaciers are clearly dwindling.
Arctic polar ice is also shrinking, in both area and thickness. It is
particularly vulnerable because, instead of sitting on long-chilled rock, it
floats on the circulating, warming ocean.

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Oceans and Climate

One reason that there is no simple correlation between atmospheric
greenhouse-gas concentrations and land surface temperatures is the
oceans. That huge volume of water represents a much larger thermal
reservoir than the tenuous atmosphere.
Coastal regions may have relatively mild climates for this reason:
As air temperatures drop in winter, the ocean is there to release some heat
to the atmosphere; as air warms in summer, the ocean water absorbs some
of the heat. The oceans store and transport a tremendous amount of heat
around the globe.
Recent studies of the balance between the energy received from the sun
and the energy radiated back into space have confirmed a net excess of
energy absorbed, an average of 0.85 watts per square meter per year.
Such a rate of energy absorption, maintained for a thousand years, could
melt enough ice to raise sea level by a hundred meters, or raise the
temperature of the ocean’s surface-water layer by 10°C (nearly 20°F).
Moreover, much of this absorbed energy is, for now, being stored in the
oceans. So it has not yet been reflected by measured global temperature
increases?

El Nin~o
Most of the vigorous circulation of the oceans is confined to the near-
surface waters. Only the shallowest waters, within 100 to 200 meters of
the surface, are well mixed by waves, currents, and winds, and warmed
and lighted by the sun. The average temperature of this layer is about
15°C (60°F).
Below the surface layer, temperatures decrease rapidly to about 5°C
(40°F) at 500 to 1000 meters below the surface. Below this is the so-
called deep layer of cold, slow-moving, rather isolated water. The
temperature of this bottom most water is close to freezing and may even
be slightly below freezing (the water is prevented from freezing solid by
its dissolved salt content and high pressure). This cold, deep layer
originates largely in the polar regions and flows very slowly toward the
equator.
When winds blow offshore, they push the warm surface waters away
from the coastline also. This, in turn, creates a region of low pressure and
may result in upwelling of deep waters to replace the displaced surface
waters ( figure 10.13 ). The deeper waters are relatively enriched in
dissolved nutrients, in part because few organisms live in the cold, dark
depths to consume those nutrients. When the nutrient-laden waters rise
into the warm, sunlit zone near the surface, they can support abundant

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plant life and, in turn, animal life that feeds on the plants. Many rich
fishing grounds are located in zones of coastal upwelling.

Other Aspects of Global Change

It is very important to bear in mind, that “global” climate changes do not
affect all parts of the world equally or in the same ways.
There are consequences for ice amount and distribution, oceanic
circulation, patterns of storms, and more, as will be explored below.
*Changes in wind-flow patterns and amounts and distribution of
precipitation will cause differential impacts in different areas, not all of
which will be equally resilient. A region of temperate climate and ample
rainfall may not be seriously harmed by a temperature change of a few
degrees, or several inches more or less rainfall. A modest temperature rise
in colder areas may actually increase plant vigor and the length of the
growing season, and some dry areas may enjoy increased productivity
with increased rainfall.
*Warming and moisture redistribution also have potential downsides. we
noted the impact of the loss of alpine glaciers on water supplies. In many
parts of the world, agriculture is already only marginally possible because
of hot climate and little rain. A temperature rise of only a few degrees, or
loss of a few inches of rain a year, could easily make living and farming
in these areas impossible. Recent projections suggest that summer soil-
moisture levels in the Northern Hemisphere could drop by up to 40%
with a doubling in atmospheric CO2.
*It has been argued that rising CO2 levels should be beneficial in
promoting plant growth. After all, photosynthesis involves using CO2
and water and solar energy to manufacture more complex compounds and
build the plant’s structure. However, controlled experiments have shown
that not all types of plants grow significantly more vigorously given
higher CO 2 concentrations in their air, and even those that do may show
enhanced growth only for a limited period of time, not indefinitely.
Moreover, the productivity of phytoplankton (microscopic plants) in the
warming oceans has shown sharp declines. The reason may be that as the
surface water warms and becomes less dense, the warm-water layer
becomes more firmly stabilized at the surface, suppressing upwelling of
the nutrient-rich cold water below over much of the ocean and mixing of
the cold and warm waters. The effect is like that of El Nino, but much
more widely distributed. Because some whales and fish depend on the
phytoplankton for food, a decline in phytoplankton will have
repercussions for those populations also, as well as for humans who may
consume larger fish in that food web.

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*Agriculture aside, places where temperature or moisture conditions

already make living marginal are especially vulnerable to small increases
in temperature or decreases in rainfall and soil moisture. There is reason
to believe that global warming may produce more extremes—catastrophic
flooding from torrential storms, devastating droughts, “killer heat waves”
like that costing hundreds of lives in Chicago in 1995, and the
combination of heat and drought that led to deadly wildfires in southern
Australia in early 2009.
*Because of the many variables involved and the complexity of the
calculations, global-climate computer models must also limit the
resolution at which effects are calculated. Typical models operate on
areal units, or cells, that are hundreds of kilometers on a side, meaning
that small local climatic anomalies may be missed. It can therefore be
difficult to anticipate the effects of global climate change at the local
level.
*Public-health professionals have identified yet another threat related to
global change. Climate influences the occurrence and distribution of a
number of diseases. Mosquito borne diseases, such as malaria and
dengue, will be influenced by conditions that broaden or reduce the range
of their particular carrier species; the incidence of both has increased in
recent years and is currently expected to expand further. Waterborne
parasites and bacteria can grow in areas of increased rainfall. Efforts to
anticipate, and plan responses to, the climate-enhanced spread of disease
are growing.
*United Nations studies further suggest that less-developed nations, with
fewer resources, may be much less able to cope with the stresses of
climate change. Yet many of these nations are suffering the most
immediate impacts: The very existence of some low-lying Pacific island
nations is threatened by sea-level rise; reduced soil moisture and higher
temperature quickly affect the world’s “drylands,” where many poorer
countries are located; the tropical diseases are spreading most obviously
in the Third World where medical care is limited. This differential impact
may have implications for global political stability as well.

Evidence of Climates Past

An understanding of past climatic fluctuations is helpful in developing
models of possible future climate change. A special challenge in
reconstructing past climate is that we do not have direct measurements of
ancient temperatures. These must be determined indirectly using various
methods, sometimes described as “proxies” for direct temperature
records.

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Aspects of local climate may often be deduced from the geologic record,
especially the sedimentary-rock record. For example, the now-vegetated
dunes of the Nebraska Sand Hills are remnants of an arid “sand sea” in
the region 18,000 years ago, when conditions must have been much drier
than they are now. Much of North Africa was fertile, wheat growing land
in the time of the Roman Empire; small reductions in rainfall, and the
resultant crop failures, may have contributed to the Empire’s fall.
We have noted that glacial deposits may be recognized in now-tropical
regions, and this was part of the evidence for continental drift/plate
tectonics. In addition, when such deposits are widespread globally, they
indicate an ice age. Conversely, widespread coal deposits indicate warm,
wet conditions, conducive to plant growth, perhaps in a swampy setting.
Distinctively warm- or cold-climate animals and plants identified in the
fossil record likewise provide evidence of the local environmental
conditions at the time they lived. Other proxies involve the chemistry of
sediments, seawater, or snow and ice. For example, from marine
sediments comes evidence of ocean-temperature variations. The
proportion of calcium carbonate (CaCO3 ) in Pacific Ocean sediments in
a general way reflects water temperature, because the solubility of
calcium carbonate is strongly temperature-related: it is more soluble in
cold water than in warm.
A particularly powerful tool involves variations in the proportions of
oxygen isotopes in geological materials. By far the most abundant oxygen
isotope in nature is oxygen-16 (16O); the heaviest is oxygen-18 (18O).
Because they differ in mass, so do molecules containing them, and the
effect is especially pronounced when oxygen makes up most of the mass,
as in H2O.
Certain natural processes, including evaporation and precipitation,
produce fractionation between 16O and 18O, meaning that the relative
abundances of the two isotopes will differ between two substances, such
as ice and water, or water and water vapor.
As water evaporates, the lighter H2 16O evaporates preferentially, and
the water vapor will then be isotopically “lighter” (richer in 16O, poorer
in 18O) than the residual water. Conversely, as rain or snow condenses
and falls, the precipitation will be relatively enriched in the heavier
H218O. As water vapor evaporated from equatorial oceans drifts toward
the poles, depositing H218O-enriched precipitation, the remaining water
vapor becomes progressively lighter isotopically, and so does subsequent
precipitation; snow falling near the poles has a much lower 18O/16O
ratio than tropical rain, or seawater .
The fractionation between 18O and 16O in coexisting water vapor and
rain or snow is temperature-dependent, more pronounced at lower
temperatures. Therefore, at a given latitude, variations in the 18O/16O

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ratio of precipitation reflect variations in temperature. (Similarly, oxygen

isotopes fractionate between water and minerals precipitated from it. This
fractionation, is temperature-dependent). Thus, variations in the 18O/16O
ratio in the oxygen-rich carbonate [CaCO3] or silica [SiO2] skeletons of
marine microorganisms give evidence of variations in the temperature of
the near-surface seawater from which these skeletons precipitated, and
they have been used to track past El Nino cycles.)
The longevity of the massive continental glaciers sometimes hundreds of
thousands of years makes them useful in preserving evidence of both air
temperature and atmospheric composition in the past. Tiny bubbles of
contemporary air may be trapped as the snow is converted to dense
glacial ice. The oxygen-isotope composition of the ice reflects seawater
O-isotope composition and the air temperature at the time the parent
snow fell. If those temperatures can be correlated with other evidence,
such as the carbon-dioxide content of the air bubbles or the presence of
volcanic ash layers in the ice from prehistoric explosive eruptions, much
information can be gained about possible causes of past climatic
variability and the climate-prediction models may be refined accordingly.

Questions for Review

1. Explain the greenhouse effect and its relationship to modern
industrialized society.
2. What is an El Nino event? What is its apparent significance to climate
and to the productivity of coastal fishing grounds? Explain.
3. How is global warming related to the spread of certain diseases?
4. Water vapor and methane are both greenhouse gases. Why is the focus
so often on carbon dioxide instead?

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