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Bakery Customer Preferences Survey

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
51 views3 pages

Bakery Customer Preferences Survey

Uploaded by

abidkargilee
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Name: _________________________ DISC 203 – Assignment 2(5%)

LUMS ID: _____________________ Tuesday, October,4, 2022


Section #: ____________________ Due: Monday, October 17, 2022 (10pm) Total Marks - 10

Q1. Ten new products have been developed by a food-products firm. Market research has indicated that the
10 products have the characteristics described by the following Venn diagram:

(a) Write the event that a product possesses all the desired characteristics as an intersection of the events
defined in the Venn diagram. Which products are contained in this intersection? [0.5]

PSA

6, 7

(b) If one of the 10 products were selected at random to be marketed, what is the probability that it
would possess all the desired characteristics? [0.5]

P (P  S  A) = 2/10 = 0.2

(c)Write the event that the randomly selected product would give the firm a competitive advantage or
would satisfy consumers as a union of the events defined in the Venn diagram. Find the probability of this
union. [0.5]

AS

P (A  S) = 8/10 = 0.8

(d) Write the event that the randomly selected product would possess superior product characteristics
and satisfy consumers. Find the probability of this intersection. [0.5]

PS

P (P  S) = 3/10 = 0.3

(e) Two of the 10 products will be selected for an ad campaign. How many different pairs of products are
possible? [1]

10 ! 10 ×9 × 8!
10 C 2= = =45
2 ! ( 10−2 ) ! 2 ×8 !
Name: _________________________ DISC 203 – Assignment 2(5%)
LUMS ID: _____________________ Tuesday, October,4, 2022
Section #: ____________________ Due: Monday, October 17, 2022 (10pm) Total Marks - 10

Q2. In a double intrusion detection system, if there is an intruder, system A sounds an alarm with probability
0.9, and system B sounds an alarm with probability 0.95. If there is no intruder, system A sounds an alarm
with probability 0.2, and system B sounds an alarm with probability 0.1. The probability of an intruder is 0.4.
Assume systems A and B operate independently. If both systems sound an alarm, what is the probability that
an intruder is detected? [3]
Name: _________________________ DISC 203 – Assignment 2(5%)
LUMS ID: _____________________ Tuesday, October,4, 2022
Section #: ____________________ Due: Monday, October 17, 2022 (10pm) Total Marks - 10

Q3. Each year, J.D. Power and Associates publishes the results of its North American Hotel Guest Satisfaction
Index Study. For 2009, the study revealed that 66% of hotel guests were aware of the hotel’s “green”
conservation program. Among these guests, 72% actually participated in the program by reusing towels and
bed linens. In a random sample of 15 hotel guests, consider the number (x) of guests who were aware of and
participated in the hotel’s conservation efforts.

(a) Use the rules of probability to determine the value of p for this binomial experiment. [1]

p = 0.66*0.72 = 0.4752

(b) Assume p=0.45. Find the probability that at least 10 of the 15 hotel guests were aware of and participated
in the hotel’s conservation efforts. You can use R for the computation.[1]

P(x>=10) = 1- P(x<=9) = 0.0769

(c) Assume p=0.45. Compute the E(x). Verify your computation using 100000 simulations of the relevant
binomial experiment in R. [2]

E(x) = np = 15*0.45 = 6.75

Common questions

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Probability rules are applied by multiplying the probabilities for individual events occurring together, as in calculating p for the binominal distribution from joint probabilities of awareness and participation. Accurate probability estimates ensure robust predictions and guide decision-making processes, as exemplified by p = 0.66 * 0.72 = 0.4752 representing joint event probability in experimental designs .

The probability that a guest participates in the conservation program is the product of the probability that a guest is aware and the probability of participation given awareness: p = 0.66 * 0.72 = 0.4752 .

To calculate the probability that an intruder is detected if both systems sound an alarm, apply Bayes' theorem considering the false positive rates and probabilities of detection. The probability of both systems sounding an alarm given an intruder is P(A ∩ B | intruder) = P(A | intruder) * P(B | intruder) = 0.9 * 0.95. The probability of both systems sounding an alarm with no intruder is 0.2 * 0.1 .

Using both systems increases reliability as they operate independently. The probability of detection improves because independent operation allows verification through cross-checking alarms, minimizing false positives and capturing true positives with higher certainty. The probability of intrusion is 0.4; hence, combining system outputs through Bayes' theorem helps in better estimation of actual intrusions .

The probability of selecting a product that possesses superior characteristics and satisfies consumers is represented by the intersection P ∩ S. This intersection's probability is 3/10 or 0.3 .

The union of events representing competitive advantage or consumer satisfaction is expressed as A ∪ S. The probability of this union, which represents a product giving the firm a competitive advantage or satisfying consumers, is 8/10, or 0.8 .

The probability that a product possesses all the desired characteristics is represented as the intersection of the events P, S, and A, written as P ∩ S ∩ A. The probability for this event is 2/10, or 0.2 .

The expectation E(x) is calculated using the formula E(x) = np, where n is the sample size (15) and p is the probability of success (0.45). The expected value is E(x) = 15 * 0.45 = 6.75. Verification through 100,000 simulations of this binomial distribution in R confirms the computation .

The union in probability, denoted A ∪ S, plays a crucial role by capturing the composite event of a product either providing a competitive edge or satisfying consumers. This holistic view aids firms in comprehensively evaluating success potential and strategizing accordingly. A high probability of 0.8 indicates substantial success potential in these combined dimensions .

The number of different pairs of products that can be selected is calculated using the combination formula 10C2, which equals 45. This is determined by 10!/(2!(10−2)!) = 45 .

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