ECSS Q HB 30 08A (14january2011)
ECSS Q HB 30 08A (14january2011)
14 January 2011
Space product
assurance
Components reliability data sources
and their use
ECSS Secretariat
ESA-ESTEC
Requirements & Standards Division
Noordwijk, The Netherlands
ECSS‐Q‐HB‐30‐08A
14 January 2011
Foreword
This Handbook is one document of the series of ECSS Documents intended to be used as supporting
material for ECSS Standards in space projects and applications. ECSS is a cooperative effort of the
European Space Agency, national space agencies and European industry associations for the purpose
of developing and maintaining common standards.
This handbook has been prepared by the ECSS‐Q‐HB‐30‐08 Working Group, reviewed by the ECSS
Executive Secretariat and approved by the ECSS Technical Authority.
Disclaimer
ECSS does not provide any warranty whatsoever, whether expressed, implied, or statutory, including,
but not limited to, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or any warranty
that the contents of the item are error‐free. In no respect shall ECSS incur any liability for any
damages, including, but not limited to, direct, indirect, special, or consequential damages arising out
of, resulting from, or in any way connected to the use of this document, whether or not based upon
warranty, business agreement, tort, or otherwise; whether or not injury was sustained by persons or
property or otherwise; and whether or not loss was sustained from, or arose out of, the results of, the
item, or any services that may be provided by ECSS.
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Change log
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Table of contents
1 Scope.......................................................................................................................6
2 References ..............................................................................................................7
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A.2 EEE parts ................................................................................................................. 20
A.2.1 AT&T reliability manual............................................................................... 20
A.2.2 FIDES (UTE C 80-811)............................................................................... 20
A.2.3 HRD5.......................................................................................................... 20
A.2.4 IEEE Gold Book.......................................................................................... 21
A.2.5 IRPH ........................................................................................................... 21
A.2.6 MIL-HDBK-217 ........................................................................................... 21
A.2.7 PRISM (RAC / EPRD) ................................................................................ 21
A.2.8 RDF 2000 (UTE C 80-810, IEC-62380-TR Edition 1)................................. 21
A.2.9 Siemens SN29500...................................................................................... 22
A.2.10 Telcordia SR-332........................................................................................ 22
A.3 Mechanical parts ...................................................................................................... 22
A.3.1 NPRD-95 .................................................................................................... 22
A.3.2 NSWC-94/L07 - Handbook of Reliability Prediction Procedures for
Mechanical Equipment ............................................................................... 23
Bibliography.............................................................................................................31
Figures
Figure 4-1: Boundaries of ECSS-Q-ST-30-08 (inputs and outputs) ......................................... 9
Figure 4-2: Selection process................................................................................................. 10
Figure 4-3: Decision logic....................................................................................................... 11
Figure 4-4: Selection of manufacturer or user data................................................................ 14
Tables
Table 4-1: Reliability handbook selection criteria ................................................................... 13
Table 4-2: Percentiles of the χ² Distribution at 60 % and 90 % confidence for n<30 ............. 17
Table B-1 : EEE families applicability matrix for MIL-HDBK-217 ........................................... 25
Table B-2 : EEE package applicability ................................................................................... 27
Table B-3 : Designation of EEE part quality grades ............................................................... 28
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1
Scope
This handbook identifies data sources and respective methods that can be used for reliability
prediction of components. It proposes suitable data sources and an application matrix for component
families.
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2
References
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3
Terms, definitions and abbreviated terms
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4
Selection of reliability data and methods
4.1 Introduction
This handbook can be used whenever EEE and mechanical components reliability data or failure rates
are needed to perform quantitative dependability or safety analyses in accordance with ECSS‐Q‐ST‐30
or ECSS‐Q‐ST‐40.
The boundaries of this process are shown in Figure 4‐1. Inputs are project requirements, handbook
data and manufacturer or user data. The selection process should consider selection criteria and
methods of use of data. Outputs are usually included in equipment reliability assessments. Selection is
supported by suitable justification.
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No
In the case where there is no prescribed methodology, this handbook should be applied and a suitable
methodology should be selected.
In the case where the prescribed methodology does not adequately address the component under
consideration, this handbook should be applied and a suitable methodology should be selected.
In order to perform any reliability predictions, reliability data is needed as an input, and a suitable
methodology needs to be applied.
Figure 3 shows the decision logic that should be applied when selecting data sources. Data should be
obtained from the following sources, in order of preference:
Handbook data
Manufacturer or user data.
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Start
Collect data on
Collect data on
application
components used
environment
Is there an applicable
Yes Use it
methodology
No
Use manufacturer/
User data
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Select Data
Source
Yes Yes
Yes Yes
Yes
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2. If manufacturer data is available, check whether data is presented in accordance with IEC
60319, in which case it can be considered for use.
If the data is not presented in accordance with IEC 60319, then a detailed review of the
data should be performed to ensure the following is available:
o tests and test conditions applied to the components;
o lot sampling;
o number of lots;
o manufacturing and testing period;
o technological representativity;
o failure analysis.
Once this data is available, assess the effect of any missing data with respect to the
expected list above.
3. If user data is available, check whether data is collected and presented in accordance with
IEC 60300‐3‐2 and IEC 60300‐3‐5, in which case it can be considered for use.
If data is not presented in accordance with these standards, then a detailed review of data
should be made, to ensure the following is available:
For field return data the following should be reviewed:
o data collection procedures;
o relevance of failures;
o analysis techniques.
For test data the following should be reviewed:
o tests and test conditions applied to the components;
o lot sampling;
o number of lots;
o manufacturing and testing period;
o technological representativity;
o failure analysis.
Once this data is available, assess the effect of any missing data with respect to the
expected list above.
4. Once these checks have been performed, the analyst can decide on the use of the data.
5. In case suitability is not determined, the above steps are repeated to find an alternative.
6. In case a data source cannot be found, a risk assessment should be performed to
determine the necessity for obtaining further data, e.g. via a reliability test programme,
whether to use expert judgement or whether to accept the fact that data is not available
for the particular component under consideration.
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methodology followed to be understood at some later time. The justification should be included with
the reliability assessment report (see clause 4.7) and may be used as part of any reliability case
argued. Annex C provides more details of the justification.
n2 10 9
For a time truncated test, where n = 2f + 2:
2T
n2 10 9
For a failure truncated test, where n = 2f:
2T
where
λ= is the failure rate in 10‐9/hour (FIT) at test conditions;
χ² = is the percentile of the χ² distribution at confidence level (failure rates are provided at 60 %
confidence in the commonly used handbooks listed and described in Annex A);
n= is the degree of freedom of the statistics.
The failure rate can be extrapolated to the operating condition by applying the acceleration factor
between test conditions and operating conditions. Information on acceleration factors can be found in
IEC1709 or IEC 721‐3‐3
Percentiles of the χ² distribution at 60 % and 90% confidence level are given in Table 4‐2 for up to 30
degrees of freedom.
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4.7.1 General
For mechanical reliability prediction, four approaches are available:
part failure data analysis,
empirical reliability relationships,
stress‐strength, and
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handbook data.
There are a number of problems that are encountered when performing mechanical predictions and
these are summarized below.
Part failure analysis
Data often not available
Available data is often grouped (individual times to failure are not available)
For a completely new design, expensive testing may be required.
Empirical reliability techniques
Models available for limited number of part types
New process/material not previously assessed
Models are often for life and not hazard rate.
Stress or strength interference analysis
Results are probability of failure not hazard rate
Interference often at extremes of distribution tails
Standard deviation for stress is difficult to get.
Handbook data
Constant failure rates are assumed
Failure rates are not application sensitive
Design improvements doubtful.
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can be significantly in error. In order to perform a stress‐strength analysis, the stress distribution and
strength distribution should be determined using best engineering practices.
If stress is greater than strength, failure occurs. This failure generally occurs in the area under the
intersection of the strength and stress distribution. Hence it is important to understand the shape and
location of these distributions.
More information on stress‐strength analysis can be found in IEC 60300‐3‐1.
4.8 Documentation
Reliability assessment documentation should be prepared in accordance with ECSS‐Q‐ST‐30 and
ECSS‐Q‐ST‐40. The documentation includes:
the selection process for the data sources,
the description of calculation methods,
the derived failure rates, and
the justification for the methodology and data source choices made.
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Annex A
Potential data sources
A.1 Introduction
This Annex provides information to the user concerning data sources for component failure rate
determination. This list is not comprehensive, and is not intended to give a preference for sources. It
remains up to the user to determine which data source is relevant for the application.
A.2.3 HRD5
The British Telecom Handbook of reliability data, HRD5 is a reliability standard developed by British
Telecommunications plc that also provides models for a wide range of components. In general, HRD5
is similar to CNET 93, but provides simpler models and requires fewer data parameters for analysis.
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The HRD5 method is available in a number of commercially available reliability software packages
but the original handbook is no longer on sale
A.2.5 IRPH
IRPH ITALTEL Reliability Prediction Handbook is the Italian telecommunication companies version
of CNET RDF. The standards are based on the same data sets with only some of the procedures and
factors changed.
The Italtel IRPH handbook is available on request from:
Direzione Qualita, Italtel Sit, CC1/2 Cascina Castelletto, 20019 Settimo Milanese Mi., Italy.
A.2.6 MIL-HDBK-217
MIL‐HDBK‐217, Reliability Prediction of Electronic Equipment, has been the mainstay of reliability
predictions for about 40 years.
The handbook was published by the Department of Defense, Washington DC, U.S.A, and is available
via several websites on the internet. Its last issue is the Rev. F + Notice 2.
The handbook is incorporated within several commercially available reliability software packages..
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This handbook covers most of the same components as MIL‐HDBK‐217. The models take into account
power on/off cycling as well as temperature cycling and are very complex, with predictions for
integrated circuits requiring information on equipment outside ambient and print circuit ambient
temperatures, type of technology, number of transistors, year of manufacture, junction temperature,
working time ratio, storage time ratio, thermal expansion characteristics, number of thermal cycles,
thermal amplitude of variation, application of the device, as well as per transistor, technology related
and package related base failure rates.
The standard IEC‐62380 is available at:
The UTE UNION TECHNIQUE DE L’ÉLECTRICITÉ ET DE LA COMMUNICATION, Immeuble
VOLTA, 33, avenue du Général Leclerc ‐ BP 23, 92262 Fontenay‐aux‐Roses Cedex, France.
A.3.1 NPRD-95
NPRD‐95 data provides failure rates for a wide variety of items, including mechanical and electro‐
mechanical parts and assemblies. The document provides detailed failure rate data on over 25000
parts for numerous part categories grouped by environment and quality level. Because the data does
not include time‐to‐failure, the document is forced to report average failure rates to account for both
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defects and wear‐out. Cumulatively, the database represents approximately 2,5 trillion part hours and
387000 failures accumulated from the early 1970ʹs through 1994. The environments addressed include
the same ones covered by MIL‐HDBK‐217; however, data is often very limited for some environments
and specific part types. For these cases, it then becomes necessary to use the ʺrolled upʺ estimates
provided, which make use of all data available for a broader class of parts and environments.
Although the data book approach is generally thought to be less desirable, it remains an economical
means of estimating ʺballparkʺ reliability for mechanical components. This is available from the
Reliability Analysis Center, 201 Mill Street, Rome, NY 13440‐6916, U.S.A
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Annex B
Applicability and limitations of MIL-HDBK-
217F
B.1 Introduction
This Annex provides information to the user about MIL‐HDBK‐217F. Even though it is obsolete, it is
still the most commonly used handbook for the space community and is likely to remain so for some
time after the publication of this handbook
The information here is not comprehensive, and is not intended to express a preference for sources.
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MIL‐HDBK‐217 should not be used (nor extrapolated) beyond its limitations identified in the table
above.
When a specific family is not covered by MIL‐HDBK‐217, the methodology prepared in the present
handbook should be used to choose the most appropriate alternative standard or handbook. RDF
(UTE C 80‐810) and Telcordia (SR‐332) are the most recently updated handbooks among these
commonly accepted in the reliability analysis community.
When no handbook properly covers the considered family, the manufacturer’s data can be considered
and should be collected and worked out as described in clause 4.6.
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MIL‐HDBK‐217 should not be used (nor extrapolated) beyond its limitations identified in the table
above.
When a specific package or technology is not covered by MIL‐HDBK‐217, the methodology presented
in the present handbook should be used to choose the most appropriate alternative standard or
handbook. RDF (UTE C 80‐810) and Telcordia (SR‐332) are the most recently updated handbooks
among the commonly accepted in the reliability analysis community.
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Annex C
Justification
In an audit or similar task, justification for the choice of methodology should be provided, so that the
argument for the use of a particular methodology is technically verifiable. In order to provide a
complete justification the motives for performing tasks on a number of distinct levels should be
considered. The general approach is outlined in Figure C‐1, where in the first instance the use of a
particular technique and then each step of the methodology chosen should be justified.
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If reliability prediction is not the only way, but is the best way, then the justification should
specify why this is the best way.
If reliability prediction is not the only way and is not the best way, then the justification should
specify why it is being used (perhaps because it is specified by a customer).
Once reliability prediction is justified, then the actual prediction methodology should be
justified. This is done in the same manner as the justification for prediction.
If method “X” is the only way to perform the prediction, then the justification should specify
why this is the only way.
If method “X” is not the only way to perform the prediction, but is the best way, then the
justification should specify why this is the best way.
If method “X” is not the only way and is not the best way, then the justification should specify
why it is being used (perhaps because it is specified by a customer).
Once the methodology is justified, any deviations from the methodology, for instance the use of
different failure rates, PI‐factors or equivalents, should be justified in the same manner.
The same approach should be followed when working with manufacturer’s data or other data
sources.
The justifications should be recorded so that the decisions made during the process can be defended.
The justification information can be used along with the results of a prediction as part of any
reliability case (as defined for example, by DEF00‐42 (Part 3) Reliability and Maintainability (R&M)
Assurance Guidance Part 3: R&M Case.
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Bibliography
31