THINK INDIA (Quarterly Journal)

ISSN:0971-1260

Vol-22-Issue-4-October-December-2019

Floods In Bagmati Basin And Its Shifting Courses In

Muzaffarpur District
Dr. Mukul Kumar (Gold Medalist)
Post - Doctoral Research Scholar
University Department Of Geography
BRA Bihar University Muzaffarpur

ABSTRACT

The Bagmati Riverruns through the Kathmandu Valley of Nepal and separates Kathmandu
from Patan. It is considered holy by both Hindus and Buddhists. A number of Hindu temples
are located on its banks. The importance of Bagmati also lies in the fact that Hindus are
cremated on the banks of this holy river, and Kirants are buried in the hills by its side.
According to the Nepalese Hindu tradition, the dead body must be dipped three times into
the Bagmati River before cremation, so that the reincarnation cycle may be ended. The chief
mourner (usually the first son) who lights the funeral pyre must take a holy river-water bath
immediately after cremation. Many relatives who join the funeral procession also take a
bath in the Bagmati River or sprinkle the holy water on their bodies at the end of cremation.
The Bagmati River purifies the people spiritually. There is no effect of flood in most of the
areas that it touches, but it has caused widespread sufferings to the people in Terai and
northern districts of Bihar. In 1993, people have seen the worst destruction by this river.
Poor water management, lack of proper weather forecasting and awareness were the main
cause of mass [Link] in temperature, precipitation and river discharge
pattern could be considered as indicators of hydroclimatological changes of the river
basins. In this study, the temperatures (maximum and minimum), precipitation, and
discharge data from 1980 to 2009 were used to detect the hydroclimatological changes in
the Bagmati River Basin, Nepal. Simple linear regression and Mann-Kendall test statistic
were used to examine the significant trend of temperature, precipitation, and discharge.
Increasing trend of temperature was found in all seasons, although the change rate was
different in different seasons for both minimum and maximum temperatures. However,
stronger warming trend was found in maximum temperature in comparison to the
minimum in the whole basin. Both precipitation and discharge trend were increasing in
the pre-monsoon season, but decreasing in the post-monsoon season.

KEYWORDS:-Bagmati River Basin hydroclimatological change temperature precipitation discharge

INTRODUCTION

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The Chobar gorge cuts through the Mahabharat Range, also called the Lesser Himalaya.
This 2,000-to-3,000-meter (6,600 to 9,800 ft) range is the southern limit of the "middle
hills" across Nepal, an important cultural boundary between distinctive Nepali and more
Indian cultures and languages, as well as a major geological feature. The basin of the
Bagmati River, including the Kathmandu Valley, lies between the much larger Gandaki
basin to the West and the Kosi Basin to the east. These adjacent basins extend north of the
main Himalayan range and cross it in tremendous gorges, in fact, the Arun tributary of the
Kosi extends far into Tibet. The smaller

Bagmati rises some distance south of the Himalaya. Without glacial sources, its flow is
more dependent on rainfall, becoming very low during the hot season (April to early June),
then peaking during the monsoon season (mid-June to mid-August). In these respects, the
Bagmati system resembles the (West) Rapti system lying between the Gandaki basin and the
Karnali basin in the far west of Nepal. The Bagmati originates where three headwater
streams converge at Bāghdwār (Nepali: बाघ वार, "Tiger Gate"), where the water flows out
through a gargoyle shaped like a tiger's mouth. This lies above the southern edge of the
Shivapuri Hills about 15 kilometers (9 mi) northeast of Kathmandu. Here the Bagmati is
wide and swift with a high load of suspended solids, giving it a grey appearance. The river
flows southwest about 10 km (6 mi) through terraced rice fields in the Kathmandu
[Link] rock strata interrupt the flow in places, including at Pashupatinath Temple.
Beyond the temple, the river flows south until joined by the larger west-flowing Monahara
River, then turns west itself. After entering Kathmandu's urban area more tributaries enter:
relatively unpolluted DhobīKholā and sewage-laden [Link] the river bends
south and the Vishnumati enters from the right at TekuDovan. The Vishnumati also rises in
the Shivapuri Hills, some 6 kilometers (4 mi) west of the Bagmati's source. It flows south
past Nagarjun Hill and Forest Reserve, Swayambhu Stupa and Durbar Square in
Kathmandu. As it passes the centre of Kathmandu, this tributary becomes heavily polluted
and choked with trash.

OCCURRENCE OF FLOODS IN RIVER SYSTEMS

A study has been made to see the flood stages in various river systems during floods in FMISC focus
area. It was found that early flood takes place during the month of May-June in River Bagmati, Kosi
and river Kamla. There after flood generally comes in River Bagmati month of mid July. During
these months River Ganga generally remains low but by September River Ganga, the master drain
also rises making the flood problem more acute. A peculiarity of this year’s flood is regarding the
river Bagmati in which flood remained high even during the month of September –October.

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FLOOD HAS A HISTORY IN MUZAFFARPUR DISTRICT

Muzaffarpur is the worst flood-prone and flood-affected Bihar. Floods are an annual
certainty in Bihar. This was confirmed by the data presented by the home ministry in the
Lok Sabha in July this year. Muzaffarpur tops the list of states in terms of death of citizens
due to floods.A total of 970 people were killed in Muzaffarpur(Bihar) during 2016-19
followed by 756 in Kerala, 663 in West Bengal and 522 in Maharashtra - 6,000 died across
India due to [Link] of the severest floods in Muzaffarpur were seen in 1987 and 2004.
The 1987 flood was unique as most of India witnessed drought-like situation due to what
many call "mid-way flight of the monsoon". Around 1,500 people were killed in Muzaffarpur
in the 1987 flood. It was followed by a massive earthquake in 1988. On both occasions, the
state government was found lax, fueling people's anger.

This is a photograph, shows patients being taken to the hospital wading through floodwate r. Several are as of Muzaffarpur are unde r waist-deep
wate r. (Photo: PTI)

In the next election, the Congress was voted and practically rooted out of Muzaffarpur. This
was 1989. Lalu Prasad emerged as the mass leader. The Congress has been tottering ever
[Link] next big flood was in 2004, when about 900 people lost their lives. The Lalu
Prasad government was voted out in 2005. His Rashtriya Janata Party remained in political
exile for the next ten years. Lalu Prasad had to forge an alliance with Nitish Kumar and
hype on anti-Modi sentiments to come back to power, which the RJD lost in just two years'
time.

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In Muzaffarpur’s Mithansarai and Madhopur villages, for example, boats are being used to
ferry stranded villagers. Meanwhile, in Mustafapur, Darbhanga district, men are building
their own boats to facilitate rescue work because the district administration has not provided
them with enough vessels to ferry people to the nearest shelter. Nearly 100 families are
living in makeshift shelters on this highway. Humans and cattle share space in these tiny
tents. Children struggle to extract potable water from borewells, even as their homes remain
under water. The areas generally affected by floods in West Champaran are the areas around
Ramnagar, Narkatiaganj, Mainatand and Chanpatia etc. and in Eastchamparan Sugauli,
Motihari and Lalbegiaghat etc. Motihari town is frequently affected due to spill of Sikrahana
river (Bagmati is known as Sikrahana in its upper reaches).Bagmati is almost fully
embanked in the lower reach i.e. thestretch from Motihari to its outfall in Ganga, except few
gaps in the leftembankment near

Muzaffarpur town when the Bagmati spills meet the BurhiGandak river. In this reach the
main flood problem is not due to inundation of the area but the erosive action on the banks
of the river which causes breaches in the embankments even in medium floods almost every
year at number of places. This leads to flood fighting works at the corresponding sites for
protection of the embankment. Erosion is more severe from downstream of Muzaffarpur
town till its outfall, which when not contained appropriately causesbreach of embankments
at the eroded sites frequently.
CLIMATE AND RAINFALL

FMIS area has monsoon type tropical climate with high temperature and medium to high
rainfall. The temperatures are lowest during December-January with an average minimum of
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0 0 0 0
8 C to 10 C and maximum of 24 C to 25 C. The temperatures in the hottest months of April to
0 0 0 0
June are minima 23 C to 25 C and maxima 35 C to 38 [Link] mean annual rainfall for the State
is about 1270 mm varying from 1170 to 1580 mm in the Focus area. Most of the rainfall (80%
to 90%) is received from mid-June to mid-October. The late September-October rains (locally
known as ‘Hathia’), though only 50 to 100 mm in quantity, are very crucial to agriculture in the
region and their timing and distribution make all the difference between plenty and scarcity. A
striking feature of this year rainfall pattern concerned with Sikandarpur in Muzaffarpur where a
th th
total of 3900.3mm occurred during 15 June to 18 October 2017.

HEAVY RAINFALL TO FLASH FLOODS IN BIHAR

A total of 25.72 lakh people have been affected by the natural calamity floods normally
struck north Bihar in August or, sometimes, in September, but this time they came a month
earlier primarily because of unusually heavy rainfall in the Terai region of the neighbouring
[Link] the last three-four days, the Terai region of Nepal has been lashed by rainfalls
ranging between 280-300 mm which was many times higher than the 50 mm which is
considered normal for the area during this time of the [Link] a result, several rivers in
Bihar like Kosi, Bagmati and Mahananda have been in spate, the Chief Minister said in the
[Link] districts Madhubani, Sitamarhi, Sheohar, East and West Champaran, Supaul,
Darbhanga, Muzaffarpur Katihar, Purnea, Kishanganj and Araria have been affected by the
[Link] cited the example of the catchment area for Kamala river in Nepal which received
203.60-319.80 mm of rainfall on July 12 -13. This led to a massive discharge of water in the
river which passes through Jayanagar in Madhubani [Link] has inundated a road
bridge in Jayanagar while in Jhanjharpur water level at a rail bridge has reached 54.50
metres, which is higher than the all-time record of 54.34 registered in [Link] Kamala
Balan embankment has been breached at six places, affecting several blocks of Madhubani
and Darbhanga [Link] level in the Bagmati has broken previous records at several
places affecting people in Sheohar, Sitamarhi and Muzaffarpur districts. All embankments
along the Bagmati have, however, so far remained [Link], a dam over Khiroi
river burst in Darbhanga district affecting many villages. Excessive water discharge in
Mahananda has inundated large parts of Kishanganj district. All embankments in the
Mahananda basin are, however, secure till [Link] 10 am Tuesday, 25 people have died in
the floods and instructions have been issued for prompt payment of ex-gratia to the next of
their [Link] flood-hit area covers 555 Panchayats of 78 blocks spread across these districts.
Rescue work is being carried out by 796 personnel equipped with 125 motor [Link]
26 teams of NDRF and SDRF are engaged in the rescue operations and so far 1.25 lakh
people have been evacuated from the marooned areas.
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For those displaced by floods, 199 relief camps have been set up which are at present
inhabited by 1.16 lakh people. Their food is being prepared at 676 community kitchens.
Instructions are in place for setting up more relief camps and community kitchens if such a
need [Link] quality of food and drinking water is being ensured and so is availability
of bleaching powder and chlorine tablets, ORS and anti-diarrhea [Link] Chief Minister,
who has conducted aerial surveys of the affected areas in the past few days, said top officials
of village development and road construction departments have been asked to personally
take stock of the damage that has been caused so that rebuilding programme are initiated
once the situation is normal.

FLOODS IN LAST TEN YEARS IN THE FMIS FOCUS AREA

Floods have caused devastation and acute human sufferings frequently since the dawn of
civilization
and man has had to live with floods since time immemorial. The impact of flood was perhaps
not felt to the same extent in the past as is felt now. This was due to the fact that there were
smaller living population and pressures of industrial activities and other development works in
the flood plains was far less compared to the present day activities. The flood problem was
accentuated due to ever increasing encroachments on the flood plains by the growing population
to meet its requirements offood and fiber. The destruction of forests for reclaiming areas for
occupation and for obtaining fuel for domestic requirements had also caused changes in river
regime. All these have resulted in an anomalous situation where, inspite of protection measures
carried out so far in the State with a substantial investment on flood management works flood
damages have gone on increasing instead of decreasing. A brief summary of flood based on the
Water Resourced Department Annual Flood Report in chronological order during (1997-2017)
is given as follows:2017 During this year rainfall in the catchments of all the river basins was
generally normal. Gandak, Kosi, Bagmati and Mahananda rivers experienced floods from first
week of July. In the mid of July maximum discharge caused tremendous pressure to the
embankment/ structures resulting in wide spread damage. Bagmati right embankment at Kothia
village, Bagmati afflux bund at Mausurha closure, right embankment of Bagmati at Beria
Thoral, Gvindpur and Paharpur, Kamla Balan river at 65.5 Km, were partially damaged. Afflux
bund and main eastern Kosi embankment were damaged at few places which were protected by
undertaking flood fighting works. Besides these few places at Burhi Gandak, Bagmati, Kamla
and Kosi, river embankments faced severe erosion which was protected by flood fighting works.
MONTHLY / MONSOON RAINFALL (MM) OBSERVED IN THE RIVER BASINS
OF AOI _ FLOOD 2017

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Monthly Rainfall Monsoon 2017

No. Normal
River Rain-Gauge June October
of Monsoon
Basins Stations (from July August September (up to Total
rainy Rainfall
15th) 18th)
days
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Simara 291.60 862.20 665.70 739.30 27.60 2586.40 64 1497.40
Lalbegiaghat 61.10 562.40 983.90 572.60 76.80 2256.80 63
Burhi Sikandarpur 136.40 1023.00 1106.40 1230.08 449.60 3945.48 66
Gandak Samastipur 165.20 630.20 383.60 542.00 49.80 1770.80 66
Rosera 141.00 459.60 394.40 394.20 34.20 1423.40 62
Khagaria 149.40 611.50 214.60 309.50 55.60 1340.60 49
Kathmandu 134.00 234.50 226.16 329.70 18.30 942.66 87 1125.60
Nagarkot 231.40 226.80 353.35 422.60 1.20 1235.35 72 1554.30
Benibad 125.20 620.20 323.20 530.50 103.00 1702.10 59
Bagmati Hayaghat 46.20 640.50 379.20 691.40 85.80 1843.10 76
Kamtaul 193.00 528.00 448.10 422.50 148.90 1740.50 53
Sonbarsa 216.20 810.80 509.80 316.00 53.40 1906.20 50
Saulighat NA NA 577.80 629.60 133.70
Jainagar 253.90 622.40 226.00 245.00 34.60 1381.90 55
Kamla
Jhanjharpur 133.60 544.40 593.70 428.10 25.50 1725.30 64
Okhaldunga 140.30 508.90 250.00 420.30 49.80 1369.30 88 1401.60
Taplejang 109.40 456.10 323.40 305.90 116.60 1311.40 101 1404.60
Dhankutta 82.10 253.00 93.20 166.00 19.80 614.10 72 722.50
Biratnagar 211.80 424.10 521.80 375.80 1.60 1535.10 75 1522.50
Kosi Dharan 204.50 573.40 305.50 387.60 145.30 1616.30 88
Basua 117.80 397.43 342.50 375.00 10.40 1243.13 64
Baltara 285.00 374.40 230.60 243.40 47.00 1180.40 53
Kursela 244.00 343.20 197.60 151.60 2.20 938.60 55
Birpur NA NA 386.20 446.00 6.60
1. Rain-gauge stations written in italics are located in Ne pal.
Notes:
2. Monthly / monsoon rainfall have been calculated using daily rainfall obtained from CWC and Nepal
web site [Link]. Underlined figures for Sonbarsa and Jainagar have been taken from
Directorate of Statistics.

3. Source of Normal Monsoon Rainfall is the Nepal web site [Link]

A word of precaution note here is that there have been a few days on which data
was not available. Those gaps have not been filled up. So, similar information from the
parent source may be a little [Link] we look at the above Table, we find that most of
the places have received rainfall on more than 50% days of the monsoon period. Taplejung
in Nepal had maximum (101) rainy days. If we compare this monsoon rainfall with the
Normal Monsoon Rainfall, it reveals that the monsoon has been more active in the western
part of the area (Bagmati basin). Eastern part (Kosi basin) received less than the Normal
rainfall. Sikandarpur received 3945.00mm cumulative monsoon rainfall which is more than
three times the Normal Monsoon Rainfall of the area. Below are the contours drawn with

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th
the rainfall figures given in the above Table. The June rainfall is taken from 15 of the
th
month and the October rainfall is only upto 18 of the month.

BAGMATI
Like Bagmati basin, Bagmati also received good amount of rainfall (average 65.5mm) on
th
15 June (first day of the monsoon season) which is reported to have caused sudden rise
rd th
in the water level and consequent damage. There was continuous rainfall from 23 to 28
th rd
June, maximum being 78mm on 25 . River water level at Sonakhan is available from 23
only which shows slow but continuous rise in the month of June from 67.20m to 67.40m.
Rainfall in Bagmati Basin and Water Level at Sonakhan - July 2017
(HFL-70.77m, DL-68.80m)
80.00 69.50

70.00 69.00
60.00
Average rainfall (m m)

68.50

Level (m)
50.00
68.00
40.00
67.50
30.00

W ater
67.00
20.00

10.00 66.50

0.00 66.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
July 2017

Average Rainfall (mm) Water Level (m)

In July, there has been regular rainfall (28 rainy days) which kept the river water level
st
continuously rising. Maximum average rainfall of 70.50mm was observed on 21 . Rise was
th th
steep from 27 to 29 when level went from 67.90m to 69.10m. It is interesting to note
that most of the time effect of rainfall has been observed on the same day.

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Rainfall in Bagmati Basin and Water Level at Sonakhan - August 2017

(HFL-70.77m, DL-68.80m)
80.00 69.00

70.00
68.50
60.00
Average rainfall (m m)

68.00

Level (m)
50.00

40.00 67.50

30.00

W ater
67.00
20.00
66.50
10.00

0.00 66.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2017

Average Rainfall (mm) Water Level (m)

In August also, there has been regular rainfall with 27 rainy days. However,
th th
rainfall from 10 to 20 August has resulted in significant rise in water level. On
th
12-13 level rose from 67.20m to 68.40m and on 18 it reached to 68.70m. Again
th st
it is interesting to note the rise from 67.60m on 27 to 68.55m on 31 when the
rainfall observed was quite low. In September, maximum average rainfall of
th
149.73mm (season’s maximum) was observed on 5 which caused steep rise in
th th
water level from 67.70m on 5 to 69.30m on 6 . During the rest of the month,
rainfall was low and the water level decreasing except the last week when slight
rise was marked.

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Rainfall in Bagmati Basin and Water Level at Sonakhan - September 2017

(HFL-70.77m, DL-68.80m)
160.00 69.50

140.00 69.00

120.00
Average rainfall (m m)

68.50

Level (m)
100.00
68.00
80.00
67.50
60.00

W ater
67.00
40.00

20.00 66.50

0.00 66.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
September 2017

Average Rainfall (mm) Water Level (m)

th
In October there was almost no rainfall up to 15 , however, rise in the water level of 0.45m
th.
was observed on 11-13 It seems four rain gauge stations could not capture the rainfall
occurred in some pockets.

Rainfall in Bagmati Basin and Water Level at Sonakhan - October 2017

(HFL-70.77m, DL-68.80m)
3.50 68.20

3.00 68.00

67.80
2.50
Average rainfall (mm)

Level (m)

67.60
2.00
67.40
1.50
67.20
Water

1.00
67.00

0.50 66.80

0.00 66.60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
October 2017

Average Rainfall (mm) Water Level (m)

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th
A sample inundation map of 10 October 2017 is shown below.

th
Inundation Map of Part of Bihar State 10 October 2017.

Statistics of Inundated Geographic Area of Part of Bihar state on 10th October 2017:

Actual

Inundation Inundation
Sl. No. District Name Area
(Hectares) (%)
(Hectares)
1 Khagaria 148600 51109 34
2 Darbhanga 227900 66207 29
3 Samastipur 290400 80614 28
4 Begusarai 191800 34152 18
5 Muzaffarpur 317200 51508 16
6 Eastchamparan 396800 26343 7
7 Sitamarhi + Sheohar 264300 6049 2
8 Saharsa 169200 2187 1
9 Madhubani 350100 4366 1
Affected Area 2356300 322535 14

FLOOD INTENSITY MAP

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The maps are prepared using the 15 numbers of Radarsat scenes as referred in above
paragraph. This has been prepared for district level and block level at the end of season
of monsoon 2017.

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Flood Intensity Map in flood season 2017 for DMD at District level.

The flood statistics below shows the district wise maximum inundation during the flood season
2017 and is a by product of above maps. The basis of making these maps are 15 numbers of
st th
scenes of different date from 21 July to 10 October which were the RADARSAT data and
fully covered the focus area. The exact date can be referred from table at 4.5.1. The maximum
inundation percentage indicates the percentage with respect to the inundation area to the
geographical area of the district. It has been categorized in three distinct flood intensity group as
severe, medium and low.

CONCLUSION

A breach occurred in Bagmati left embankment (at 72-73 km) near Basahi Village in
Begusarai District on August 03, 2007 at 1:45 am. It caused inundation in the adjoining
areas. A case study was done in the FMISC to see the inundation effects of the breach on
the adjoining blocks: Khudabandpur, Cheria-Bariarpur and Bakhri all, in Begusarai
th th th th th
District. Four RADARSAT images of 28 July, 4 , 6 /7 and 9 August, 2017 were used in
the study. River water level observed at Samastipur and Rosera as well as rainfall observed in
the basin up stream of the breach location from August 2 to 9 were also [Link] is observed
that an area of only 1896 Hectares (Ha) in the above mentioned three blocks was inundated
th
on 28 July 07. After breach on August 3 the inundation increased rapidly and it became
th th th
6722 Ha on 4 , 9002 Ha on 6 and 9188 Ha on 9 August. The rate of increase of the area
under inundation is fast during the first 2-3 days and slows thereafter. Block wise
inundation on the above dates can be seen in the following Table.

Inundated area on different dates due to breach in Burhi

Gandak.
Inundated Area (Hect.)
Name of Block 28/07/2017 4/08/2017 6/08/2017 9/08/2017
1 Khudabandpur 21 235 289 310
2 Bakhri 95 387 1202 1385
Cheria
3 Bariarpur 1779 6100 7511 7492
Total Affected Area 1896 6722 9002 9188

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Two river gauge stations of CWC are located at Rosera and Samastipur in the up stream of
the breach location. Rosera is about 25 km and Samastipur 65 km from the breach location.
It can be seen from the following Table that the breach has significant effect on the river
water level at Rosera where it dropped by 0.44m from August 3 to 6 and by 1.09m from
August 3 to 9. The drop is not of this extent at Samastipur. Water level on different dates
can be seen in the following Table:

Table Water level at Samastipur

1 Water level (m) Water level (m) Remarks
Average at Samastipur at Rosera
Sr. No. Date Rainfall (mm) (HFL-49.38m, (HFL-46.35m,
DL-46.02m) DL-42.63m)
1 2/8/2007 29.28 48.87 45.80
2 3/8/2007 10.36 49.23 46.03
3 4/8/2007 2.6 49.23 45.74
4 5/8/2007 0 49.22 45.68
5 6/8/2007 0 49.11 45.59
6 7/8/2007 7.28 48.99 45.41
7 8/8/2007 7.72 48.75 45.17
8 9/8/2007 0.8 48.51 44.94
Average of the rainfall at Simara, Lalbegiaghat, Sikandarpur, Samastipur and Rosera.
Average daily rainfall in the basin up stream of the breach location after the occurrence of
the breach is observed less than 10 mm.

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