SEMrush: Investment Insights
SEMrush: Investment Insights
25-02-2023
Company Overview
SEMrush Holdings, Inc. develops online visibility management software as a service (SaaS) platform. It helps
businesses to run search engine optimization, pay-per-click, content, social media, and competitive research
campaigns. The company offers insights and solutions to build, manage, and measure campaigns across
various marketing channels. SEMrush Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2008 and is based in Boston,
Massachusetts with additional offices in Pennsylvania, Texas, Czech Republic, Cyprus, Poland, and Russia.
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Licensed to Mikhail Kakuzin. Email address: [email protected]
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Introduction
This is a special one-time report on Semrush, a leading online visibility management SaaS platform that has
recently been in the news for its acquisition of Traffic Think Tank. The company has made waves in the digital
marketing industry. In addition to its acquisition of Backlinko, Semrush has also acquired Traffic Think Tank,
an exclusive community for digital marketing professionals seeking advanced education and networking
opportunities. These recent developments demonstrate Semrush's commitment to providing the highest
quality tools and training to its customers and community.While Semrush's innovative offerings have caught
the attention of many investors, evaluating the company's financial statements is crucial to understanding its
potential as an investment opportunity. However, as with any investment, there are risks to consider, such as
the potential for increased competition in the online visibility management space.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near
future. In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the
company. We also have a dedicated analysis of the company's Environmental, Social, and Governance
(ESG) risk scores in order to evaluate the sustainability risk.
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Key Drivers
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Historical Quarterly Statement Analysis - Income Statement & Cash Flows (USD Million)
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Let us start off with analyzing the most recent and historical quarterly data reported by the company.
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SEMRush has reported a top-line of $65.79 million in its recent quarterly result which is a 5.08% appreciation
over the previous quarter.
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The company reported a positive gross margin of 81.14% for the quarter ended 9/30/22.
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Its EBITDA for the quarter was $-2.11 million and the EBITDA margin was -3.21%.
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This was a 0.32% margin expansion at the EBITDA level which is definitely a positive outcome.
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SEMRush's operating income (EBIT) was reported at $-4.32 million and a margin of -6.57%.
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This EBIT margin grew by 1.05% in this quarter.
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The company's pre-tax margin for the quarter was -13.33%.
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SEMRush reported a net income of $-9.09 million which resulted in a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $-
0.06.
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The company's net margin was -13.82%
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20
10
-10
-20
12/31/21 3/31/22 6/30/22 9/30/22
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Now let us move on to the cash flow generation in the recent quarter.
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SEMRush burnt $-0.58 million in terms of operating cash flows for the quarter ended 9/30/22.
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The company was able to convert about -0.88% of its revenues into operating cash flows in the recent
quarter.
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This quarter's EBITDA-to-operating cash flow conversion ratio is 27.49%
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Overall, SEMRush delivered a negative free cash flow of $2.29 million for the past quarter.
Assets
Net Intangible Fixed Assets 5 19 18 9
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LT Investments 1 0 0 0
Inventories 0 0 0 0
% of revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Accounts Receivable 2 3 2 3
% of revenue 4.1% 5.0% 3.8% 4.2%
Cash and ST Investments 270 260 249 247
% of revenue 501.7% 454.8% 397.6% 374.8%
Other Current Assets 12 12 18 14
Total Current Assets 284 274 269 263
Other Assets 3 6 7 15
LT Debt 0 0 0 0
Other LT Liabilities 3 3 2 2
Total LT Liabilities 3 3 2 2
% of capital employed 1.3% 1.4% 1.1% 0.9%
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ST Debt 0 0 0 0
% of capital employed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Accounts Payable 10 11 6 13
% of COGS 18.5% 19.0% 9.2% 20.0%
Other ST Liabilities 62 69 76 67
% of revenue 114.6% 120.7% 121.8% 102.5%
Total Current Liabilities 72 80 82 81
Total Liabilities 75 83 84 83
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When we look at the quarterly Balance Sheet of the company, we see that the Fixed Asset base has evolved
from $26.71 million to $16.26 million over the last 2 quarters.
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The current level of fixed assets, including tangibles & intangibles, is around 24.72% of the company's
quarterly turnover.
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The company's receivables were around 4.20% of the quarterly top-line.
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As a result of the negative free cash flows, the company had a final cash and short-term investment balance
of $246.55 million.
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When we analyze the capital structure of SEMRush, we realize that the company relies more on equity to
finance its operations.
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The company's equity accounts for 99.10% of its total capital employed whereas debt (both long-term and
short-term) accounts for about 0.90% of the total capital.
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SEMRush's payables account for 19.99% of its cost of goods sold.
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The following chart demonstrates the evolution of the company's working capital elements and its current ratio
over the past 4 quarters.
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250
3.50
200 3.00
2.50
150
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Licensed to Mikhail Kakuzin. Email address: [email protected]
100 1.50
1.00
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0 0.00
12/31/21 3/31/22 6/30/22 9/30/22
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When we analyze the company's annualized historical income statement, we see that the top-line was $188
million for the previous financial year ending in 2021.
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The revenue growth was 50.54% in 2021 as compared to around 35.58% in 2020.
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SEMRush's cost of goods sold has increased from -23.97% to -22.30% as a percentage of the top-line
resulting in a drop in the gross margins.
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The company's overall annual EBITDA margin of 0.42% is higher than the reported quarterly EBITDA margin
for the most recent quarter.
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Non-cash expenses in the form of depreciation and amortization have gone up as compared to the result in
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2020.
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200 0.0%
180 -1.0%
160 -2.0%
140 -3.0%
120 -4.0%
100 -5.0%
80 -6.0%
60 -7.0%
40 -8.0%
20 -9.0%
0 -10.0%
2019 2020 2021
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The good news for investors holding the stock is that its net margin had increased from -5.61% in 2020 to -
1.75% in 2021.
Assets
Net Intangible Fixed Assets 0 0 0
Licensed to Mikhail Kakuzin. Email address: [email protected]
LT Investments 0 0 1
Inventories 0 0 0
% of revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Accounts Receivable 0 0 0
% of revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cash and ST Investments 37 36 270
% of revenue 40.6% 28.5% 143.4%
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Other Assets 1 8 8
LT Debt 0 0 0
Other LT Liabilities 1 1 3
Total LT Liabilities 1 1 3
ST Debt 0 0 0
Accounts Payable 0 0 0
% of COGS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Other ST Liabilities 30 43 72
Total Liabilities 31 44 75
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Moving on to the company's historical annualized balance sheet, when we analyze the fixed assets versus the
revenues, we see that the percentage has evolved from 2.38% to 4.40%
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Its receivables of $0 million are about 0.00% of the top-line.
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SEMRush has close to $269.67 million in terms of liquidity i.e. cash and short term investments.
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On the other hand, its payables for 2021 account for around 0.00% of the cost of goods sold.
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The company's long term debt is around 0.0x times its equity.
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+ Depreciation &
1 1 3
Amortization
Capital Expenditure -1 -2 -2
% of revenues 1.1% 1.9% 1.3%
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SEMRush's Cash Flow from Operations as a % of EBITDA went up which is a good sign.
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The company delivered a positive free cash flow of $21.38 million in 2021.
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It was able to convert about 2706.33% into free cash flows which was higher than the previous financial year.
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SEMRush reported $215.32 million as Cash Flow from Financing for 2021 which was higher than the
previous year.
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Evolution Of Cash flow from Operations, Cash flow from Operations, & Cash flow from
Financing (USD Million)
250
200
150
100
50
-50
2019 2020 2021
Cash Flow from Operations Cash Flow from Investments Cash Flow from Financing
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The company does not pay any dividend.
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SEMRush's total common shares outstanding have increased in 2021 by 3.16% implying a share issuance.
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The receivables turnover helps quantify a company's effectiveness in collecting the money owed by clients
and demonstrates how well it uses and manages the credit it extends to customers.
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As per the days receivable, the company takes an average period of NA days to collect money from its clients
which appears to be on the higher side and blocking its working capital.
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The inventory turnover shows the number of times a given company has sold and replaced inventory during
the year and is an indicator of how many days of working capital is blocked in inventory.
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The inventory days ratio is not applicable as the company has no inventory.
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The accounts payable turnover is a short-term liquidity measure used to quantify the rate at which a company
pays off its suppliers. It shows how many days of credit a company gets from its suppliers.
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As per the days payable, the company takes an average period of NA days to pay off its creditors which
appears to be reasonable.
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The fixed asset turnover ratio measures how well a company generates sales from its tangible as well as
intangible fixed assets. The higher the ratio, the greater the company’s efficiency to its assets to generate
revenues.
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SEMRush's fixed assets turnover ratio of 22.7 has decreased in 2021 indicating that the company is
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-10.0%
-20.0%
-30.0%
-40.0%
-50.0%
-60.0%
-70.0%
2019 2020 2021
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In the above chart, we see the evolution of the company's return on equity and its return on assets.
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Return on assets is an excellent indicator of how efficient a company's management is in generating earnings
from their economic resources or assets on their balance sheet.
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On the other hand, the return on equity of a company measures the value creation of the management and
profitability in relation to stockholders’ equity.
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The company's overall Return on Assets is -1.10%.
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SEMRush's Return on Equity is -1.46%. The company's Return on Equity is lower than its Return on Assets
and this is because it does not resort to using significant capital gearing.
֍ SEMRush reported a Net Debt of $-269.67 million for the previous financial year.
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The Net Debt to Equity ratio is a critical gearing ratio that shows us how encumbered a company is with debt
and helps us figure whether it is overleveraged or not.
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In this case, we see that SEMRush's Net Debt/ Equity ratio is -1.20 which is below the standard level of 2,
implying that the company is having a low gearing.
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The Net Debt to EBITDA ratio is another key measure of a company's leverage and shows how many years it
would take for a company to pay back its debt if net debt and EBITDA are held constant.
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SEMRush's Net Debt/ EBITDA ratio is -341.35 which is below the ideal level of 4, implying that the company
is underleveraged.
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0 1.2
-50 1.0
-100 0.8
-150 0.6
-200 0.4
-250 0.2
-300 0.0
2019 2020 2021
Net Debt
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SEMRush's Net Debt is expected to increase in 2020 and is expected to follow a similar trend over the
coming years.
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The Net Debt-to-EBITDA ratio is a measure of leverage, calculated as a company's interest-bearing liabilities
minus cash or cash equivalents, divided by its EBITDA. It shows how many years it would take for a company
to pay back its debt if net debt and EBITDA are held constant.
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Net-Debt-to-Equity ratio, also known as the gearing ratio shows how encumbered a company is with its debt.
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The company's Net Debt-to-Equity ratio for 2019 is -2.22 and it indicates that the company has no gearing.
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Key Risks
It is important to highlight the key risks associated with an investment in SEMRush as well as the inherent
risks associated with the financial projections and price forecasts presented in this report.
Semrush operates in a highly competitive market, and faces competition from many other companies that
offer similar services. If Semrush is unable to compete effectively, or if competitors develop better or more
popular products, it could negatively impact the company's financial performance and stock price.
Semrush has been actively acquiring other companies to expand its product offerings and customer base.
While these acquisitions can provide opportunities for growth, they also carry risks, such as integration
challenges, cultural clashes, and potential overpayment for the acquisition.
Semrush generates a significant portion of its revenue from a small number of key customers. If any of these
customers reduce their spending or decide to switch to a competitor, it could have a significant negative
impact on Semrush's financial performance.
Global economic, political and other conditions may adversely affect trends in consumer, business and
government spending, which may adversely impact the demand for the company’s services and its revenue
and profitability.
Rapid technological progress, changing client demands, and developing industry standards may all contribute
to the obsolescence of present and future products and services. In addition, the management claims that the
success of their client acquisition approach will always be critical to their business.
It is worth highlighting that the extent to which Covid-19 impacts the financial results of the company is highly
uncertain and could significantly disrupt the operations including sales, manufacturing and supply chain-
related activities. It could also result in social, economic, and labor instability in the countries where the
customers and suppliers operate.
With respect to our price projection, we would like to clarify that the valuation of SEMRush in this report is
specific to the date of the analysis i.e. 25-02-2023.
We must emphasize that the projected valuation and the share price of SEMRush are dependent on the
realization of the revenue growth, free cash flows and the other assumptions taken into account. Our analysis
cannot be directed to providing any assurance about the achievability of these financial forecasts.
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There is a possibility that the actual results of the company are different from the projected results as a result
of unexpected events and circumstances such as the realization of the threats mentioned in the paragraph
above. Lastly, we would like to clarify that we had no interaction with the management of the company and
they did not comment on the achievability or the reasonableness of the assumptions underlying the financial
forecasts. Please check out our detailed disclosures at the end for further details.
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The assessment of ESG (Environmental, Social & Governance) risks by Baptista Research includes a wide
range of considerations that pertain to the long-term sustainability of a company. We keep our evaluation
focused on updates with the potential to have a material impact on a company’s financial performance.
Environmental and social risks tend to be both sector-related as well as company-specific and could be driven
by external factors such as regulations or demographic changes. On the other hand, we believe that
governance risks are largely entity-driven. Often, if the ESG risks are material and yet remain unmitigated,
they result in a lower price target.
We use the ESG Risk Ratings Score provided by Sustainalytics, Inc. The final ESG Risk Rating score is
measures on a scale of 0-100 with a higher score implying a higher ESG risk. Sustainalytics assesses the
degree to which a company’s enterprise business is affected by ESG issues.
The rating uses a two-dimensional framework that combines an assessment of the company’s industry-
specific material ESG issues and an evaluation of the manner in which the company is handling those issues.
The higher the level of unmanaged risk, the higher the above-mentioned score.
As per this measure, SEMRush has an Environment Risk score of 1.9, a Social Risk score of 16.2, and a
Governance Risk score of 8.4 totalling to an ESG Risk score of 26.
The company lies on the 50th percentile implying a Medium ESG Risk.
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We also evaluate the ESG Controversy level of SEMRush as per Sustainalytics data, measured on a scale of
1 to 5 (5 being the most constroversial).
SEMRush's Controversy Level score is 1 which is considered as a Low Controversy level as it is well above
its industry average.
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Analyst Ratings
Buy: Expected to outperform market over next 6 to 12 months. Minimal risk to fundamentals and valuation.
Good long-term investment.
Outperform: Expected to outperform the market over next 6 to 12 months but there is a moderate risk to
fundamentals and valuation.
Sell: Expected to significantly underperform the market over next 6 to 12 months. There is a strong likelihood
of the security delivering negative returns and a very high risk to fundamentals and valuation.
Underperform: Expected to underperform the market over next 6 to 12. There is a moderate to high risk to
fundamentals and valuation.
Hold: Expected to perform in line with the market over next 6 to 12 months. However, there is a moderate to
high risk to fundamentals and valuation.
Attractive: The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18
months to be attractive vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.
In-Line: The analyst expects the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18
months to be in line with the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.
Cautious: The analyst views the performance of his or her industry coverage universe over the next 12-18
months with caution vs. the relevant broad market benchmark, as indicated below.
Benchmarks for each region are as follows: North America - S&P 500; Latin America – MSCI Emerging
Markets Latin America; Europe – MSCI Europe; Japan - TOPIX; Asia - relevant country index or sub-regional
index. Please contact us to know the relevant index in case it is not specified in the report.
Disclosures
This report has been prepared by Baptista Research (“Baptista Research”, “its”, “our”) for informational
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investment or to engage in any transaction. Key statistical data, historical data, and price-volume information
is sourced from reliable sources. This report is based solely on publicly-available information about the
featured company(s) which Baptista Research considers reliable, but Baptista Research does not represent it
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is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. All information contained in this report is
subject to change without notice.
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solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal.
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the key elements for any user to make an investment decision. Recipients should consider whether any
information in this report is suitable for their particular circumstances, review the company’s filings and, if
appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice.
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Contact Us
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