Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 503–515

www.elsevier.com/locate/renene

Large-scale integration of optimal combinations of

PV, wind and wave power into the electricity supply
H. Lund*
Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University, Fibigerstraede 13, 9220 Aalborg, Denmark
Received 31 May 2004; accepted 18 April 2005
Available online 1 June 2005

Abstract
This article presents the results of analyses of large-scale integration of wind power, photo voltaic
(PV) and wave power into a Danish reference energy system. The possibility of integrating
Renewable Energy Sources (RES) into the electricity supply is expressed in terms of the ability to
avoid excess electricity production. The different sources are analysed in the range of an electricity
production from 0 to 100% of the electricity demand. The excess production is found from detailed
energy system analyses on the computer model EnergyPLAN. The analyses have taken into account
that certain ancillary services are needed in order to secure the electricity supply system.
The idea is to benefit from the different patterns in the fluctuations of different renewable sources.
And the purpose is to identify optimal mixtures from a technical point of view. The optimal mixture
seems to be when onshore wind power produces approximately 50% of the total electricity
production from RES. Meanwhile, the mixture between PV and wave power seems to depend on the
total amount of electricity production from RES. When the total RES input is below 20% of demand,
PV should cover 40% and wave power only 10%. When the total input is above 80% of demand, PV
should cover 20% and wave power 30%. Meanwhile the combination of different sources is alone far
from a solution to large-scale integration of fluctuating resources. This measure is to be seen in
combination with other measures such as investment in flexible energy supply and demand systems
and the integration of the transport sector.
q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Wind power; Wave power; Photo voltaic; Energy system analysis; Distributed generation; Renewable
energy; Energy modelling

* Tel.: C45 96 35 83 09; fax: C45 98 15 37 88.

E-mail address: [email protected].

0960-1481/$ - see front matter q 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.renene.2005.04.008
504 H. Lund / Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 503–515

1. Introduction

Renewable energy together with energy conservation and combined heat and power
production (CHP) are essential factors for the implementation of European climate change
response objectives. And such technologies are intended for further expansion in the near
future. The EU strategy is that 22.1% of the total EU electricity consumption in 2010
should stem from RES [1–4]. Consequently, there is a growing trend towards distributed
generation in many European countries [5–10]. Denmark is one of the leading countries in
terms of implementing CHP, energy conservation and renewable energy into the energy
supply system [11–14].
Large-scale integration of electricity production from fluctuating renewable energy
sources into the electricity system must address the challenge of designing integrated
regulation strategies of a complex system of distributed power producers. The renewable
energy sources must interact with the rest of the production units in the system to make it
possible for the system to secure a balance between supply and demand.
This article presents the results of analyses of large-scale integration of wind power,
photo voltaic and wave power into a Danish reference energy system. A number of studies
on the integration of wind power and photo voltaic have been carried out with focus on
stand-alone systems including new technologies such as fuel cells and hydrogen [15–22].
Previous studies have analysed the possible solutions of large-scale integration of wind
power into the Danish system [23–27]. Meanwhile also wave power is an emerging
technology [28–32] and here the studies of large-scale integration are expanded to include
both photo voltaic and wave power.

2. Methodology

The analyses have been made on the Danish energy system, which traditionally is based
on the burning of fossil fuels. Denmark has very little hydro power and during the 60s and
70s, the electricity supply has been coming solely from large steam turbines located near
the big cities. Denmark has a long tradition of district heating. And during the 60s and 70s
the total energy system were based on the imports of oil. Thus, 92% out of a total of 833 PJ
of primary energy supply in 1972 was oil.
Since after the first oil crisis Denmark has become a leading country in terms of
implementing CHP, energy conservation and renewable energy. Hence, by means of
energy conservation and expansion of CHP and district heating Denmark has been able to
maintain the same primary fuel consumption for a period of more than 30 years. And by
means of increasing the share of renewable energy Denmark has been able to replace 14%
of fossil fuels. At the same time oil has been replaced by coal and natural gas, and
consequently the Danish energy system has been changed from at situation in 1972, in
which 769 PJ out of totally 833 PJ was oil, to a situation of today in which only 343 PJ out
of 828 PJ is oil. In the same period both the transportation, the electricity consumption as
well as the area of heated space has increased substantially.
Today, the share of electricity production from CHP is as high as 50%, and
approximately 20% of the electricity demand is supplied from wind power. Until recently,
 H. Lund / Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 503–515 505

the CHP plants have not been operated to balance fluctuations in the wind power and
consequently Denmark has had problems of excess electricity production. The CHP plants
have to operate when the heat demand is high in the winter and the wind power has to
operate when the wind is blowing. So far the excess production has been exported and sold
on the international electricity market. Meanwhile the price has been low especially in
hours of high wind productions. In the future, limitations in the transmission capacity may
set limits to the export, especially if the share of RES is due to further expansions.
As reference system for the analyses were chosen the western part of Denmark, in
which the share of CHP and wind is the highest. The region is identical to the area of the
transmission system operator, Eltra. And the reference is based on the Eltra system plan
2001 which was used in the work of an expert group, who in 2001 on request of the Danish
Parliament, investigated the problem of large-scale integration of wind and analysed
possible means and strategies for managing the problem [33]. As part of the work, Aalborg
University made some long-termed energy system analyses for 2020 on the EnergyPLAN
model of investments in more flexible energy systems in Denmark [26,34].
As reference year has been chosen year 2020, which is constituted by the following
development: the electricity demand is expected to be 24.87 TWh with a peak demand of
4400 MW. Existing large coal-fired CHP steam turbines are replaced by new natural gas
fired combined cycle CHP units when the old CHP plants expire. The electricity
production from CHP is as high as 50% of the demand. The reference is described in detail
in [26].
The possibility of integrating fluctuating RES into the electricity supply is expressed in
terms of the ability to avoid excess electricity production. Previously wind power has been
analysed to avoid excess production. But also to find its potential of reducing domestic
CO2 emissions and possible trade value on the international electricity market. Here the
analyses have been made solely from a technical point of view, investments are not
included. At the present development stage of photo voltaic and wave power these new
technologies will be excluded when identifying an economically optimal solution.
The different sources are analysed in the range of an electricity production from 0 to
100% of the electricity demand. The excess production is found from detailed energy
system analyses on the computer model EnergyPLAN (see Fig. 1). The model is an input/
output model making annual analyses in steps of 1 h. General inputs are demands,
capacities and the choice of a number of different regulation strategies, putting emphasis
on import/export and excess electricity production. Outputs are energy balances and
resulting annual productions, fuel consumption and import/exports.
The energy system in the EnergyPLAN model includes heat production from solar
thermal, industrial CHP, CHP units, heat pumps and heat storage and boilers. District
heating supply is divided into three groups of boiler systems and decentralised and
centralised CHP systems. In addition to the CHP units the systems include electricity
production from renewable energy as well as traditional power plants (condensation
plants).
The model emphasises the analysis of different regulation strategies, including
ancillary service restrictions of different power production units in order to secure grid
stability in the electricity supply. For a detailed description of the model, please consult
[35].
506 H. Lund / Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 503–515

EnergyPLAN Model 6.0

Input Output
Distribution Data:
Demands Electricity District H. Wind Ma rket Prices
Fixed electricity Results:
Flexible electricity (Annual, monthly and
District Heating Solar Industrial CHP Photo Voltaic hour by hour values)
•Heat productions
RES •Electricity production
Wind and PV •Electricity import
Capacities (MW) Regulation strategy: export
Distribution Factor •Forced electricity
Solar Thermal and
1. Meeting heat demand
surplus production
CSHP (TWh/year) 2. Meeting both heat and electricity demand •Fuel consumption
Capacities & •Payments from
import/export
Efficiencies Electricity Market Strategy:
•CO2 emissions
CHP, Power plant, Import/export optimisation
Heat Pump, Boiler •Share of RES
Heat Storage
Critical surplus production:
Regulation • reducing wind,
Market prises
Multiplication factor • replacing CHP with boiler or heat pump
Addition factor • Electric heating and/or Bypass
Depend factor
Marginal production
Cost (Import, export)
Stabilisation demands Fuel
Types of fuel
CO2 emission factors
Fuel prices

Fig. 1. The EnergyPLAN energy system analysis model.

The ability of integrating renewable energy depends not only on the fluctuations in the
renewable source but also of the fluctuations in the demand and the flexibility of the rest of
the supply system. Consequently, the result differs from one system to another and from
one country to another. The results of wind power integration into different systems have
been analysed in [36]. Here the analyses are all done in relation to a Danish reference
system, which differs from most other systems by having a high percentage of combined
heat and power production (CHP).
For such reference energy system, the integration ability of a fluctuating renewable
energy source can be shown as in Fig. 2 for Danish onshore wind power. The x-axis gives
the wind power production between 0 and 25 TWh equal to a variation from 0 to 100% of

Excess Electricity Production

With and without ancillery service restrictions
Excess production (TWh)

25

20
With
15 Without
10
5

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Wind production (TWh)

Fig. 2. The integration of onshore wind power into the Danish reference electricity supply system.
 H. Lund / Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 503–515 507

the demand (24.87 TWh). And the y-axis gives the excess production in TWh. The less the
curve raises, the better the integration of the renewable energy sources. The analysis has
been made with the following restrictions in ancillary services in order to achieve grid
stability:

† At least 30% of the power (at any hour) must come from power production units
capable of supplying ancillary services.
† At least 350 MW running capacity in big power stations must be available at any moment.
† Distributed generation from CHP and RES is not capable of supplying ancillary
services.

To show the influence of including ancillary services in the analysis the results in Fig. 2
are shown both in the cases with and without such restrictions. The inclusion of ancillary
service restrictions in the analysis sometimes makes the excess production even higher than
the RES input itself. In the case of very large inputs of RES, the ‘system’ in some cases needs
to increase the production from steam-turbines in order to fulfil such requirement. Previous
studies have analysed how wind power can be better integrated into the electricity supply
(laying down the curve in Fig. 2) by investing in flexible energy systems such as heat pumps
and heat storage capacities and including small CHP plants in the balancing of supply and
demand and in the supply of ancillary services [27,37]. Also flexible demand and the
integration of energy supply for transportation via electrical vehicles and hydrogen has been
included in the analyses. Such analyses show that a high percentage of RES can be
integrated into the electricity supply without excess production if the system around the
RES production units is properly designed. Meanwhile, the influence from investments in
such flexible systems is not included in the following analysis, in which all RES are
measured against the reference system shown in Fig. 2. The purpose in this article is to
identify an eventual optimal combination of different RES productions units. In the case of
large-scale integration of RES the optimal combination needs to be seen together with the
implementation of other measures such as flexible systems.

3. Distribution data

The hour by hour distribution of the different RES has been based on actual
measurements whenever possible. For onshore wind power, which has existed in Denmark
for many years, the distribution is based on actual production from wind turbines located
in the reference area (i.e. the western part of Denmark). The same thing has been possible
for photo voltaic, since measurements form a pilot project of 300 small installations has
been ongoing since 2000. Meanwhile such data do not exist for wave power.
Consequently, data have been generated from wave data with 2001 as reference year.

3.1. Onshore wind power

The distribution of electricity production from onshore wind power is found on the
basis of actual productions in the western part of Denmark, namely the area of the TSO
508 H. Lund / Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 503–515

Wind production Eltra 2001 (1964 MWh pr MW)

2000

1500
MWh/h

1000

500

0
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours

PV production Sol300 2001 (1000 MWh/MW)

250

200
kWh/h

150

100

50

0
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours

Wave Power estimated year 2001 (410 MWh/MW)

kWh/h pr. m wave front

0
0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784
Hours

Fig. 3. Distribution of electricity production from wind, PV and wave power in Denmark 2001.

company, Eltra. Data for 2001 have been downloaded from the homepage of Eltra [38].
The total wind turbine electricity production is shown in Fig. 3 (top) together with the
duration curve. The analysis has ruled out offshore wind power. Small offshore wind farms
between 5 and 25 MW have existed in Denmark since 1991, and by the end of 2003 seven
offshore wind farms were in operation representing approximately 85% of the total global
offshore wind power capacity. The 160 MW wind farm on Horns Rev off the west coast in
the North Sea went into operation in 2002. The offshore production has had much better
 H. Lund / Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 503–515 509

full load hours than most onshore turbines, which stresses the importance of location.
The best production is achieved on the west coast, in which full load hours of up to 4400 h/
year are expected. Consequently, offshore wind power would result in less excess
production than onshore wind power.

3.2. Photo voltaic

The distribution of electricity production from photo voltaic has been derived from the
Danish Sol300 project. The project involves 267 PV installations from 2000 on typical one
family houses in eight locations in Denmark. The 267 installations add up to 663 kW peak
on the PV units. Meanwhile, not all DC/AC converters are capable of converting peak
loads. Consequently, the total capacity is a little bit smaller.
Measurements from each installation have been collected in the period July 2000 till
February 2003 by the utility company ‘EnergiMidt’. The data from EnergiMidt consist
of electricity production in Wh for each 15 min for each of the eight locations. The
data is generated form a data-logger on each installation. However, some data are
missing. For 2001, 1 month is missing for one location, and for 2002, 1 month is
missing for four locations. And the number of installations included in the data varies
from month to month and do not include all installations for any of the locations.
Typically, between 100 and 150 of the 267 installations are included. Each data set
states the peak capacity of the installations, which are included in the electricity
production. For 2001 and 2002, the monthly peak capacity of the installations included
in the data sets varies between 227 and 382 kW. The total production for 2001 is
shown in Fig. 3 (middle). Again the duration curve is shown in the same diagram. The
Sol300 data have been transformed into annual distribution data for the EnergyPLAN
model on the following basis:

† the values for each 15 min have been added into hour values (Wh pr h);
† for each month the hour values of the eight locations have been weighted according
to the peak capacity of the represented installations before being added to a total
hourly electricity production;
† for each month the total values have been weighted according to the capacity of the
represented installations before being linked in an annual distribution curve;
† the distribution curve is adjusted according to the maximum 1 h production leading
to annual full load production of 1002 h in 2001 and 738 h in 2002.

A load factor in year 2001 of approximately, 1000 h of full load production may seam a
little bit high for Danish weather conditions. Meanwhile the figure is influences by the
correlation when being adjusted to the maximum 1 h production.

3.3. Wave power

So far wave power plants in Denmark have existed only as small test facilities, and
consequently, production data and distribution data do not exist. The distribution of wave
510 H. Lund / Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 503–515

power derives from wave-measurements in the North Sea off the west coast of Denmark.
The measurements consist of the following data:

† the significant wave height H (meter), defined as the average height of the highest 1/3 of
the waves within one measurement;
† the mean wave period T02 (second) and;
† the peak wave period TP (second).

The energy of the waves PW (W/m) has been calculated according to the following
relation [28,39] between the height and the length of the period in which k is a constant:

PW Z kH 2 ðT02 C TP Þ=2

Data exist from 1999 to 2004, but due to failures in the measurement equipment some
of the data are missing. Some measurements are given on an hourly basis and some are
given for shorter periods. The data have been transformed into annual distribution data in
the following way:

† values shorter than 1 h have been added to average hour values;

† missing hour values have been replaced with the same hour in the day before;
† missing monthly periods have been replaced by monthly data from other years;
† the distribution curve is adjusted according to the maximum one hour production
leading to annual full load production of 442 h in 1999 and 410 h in 2001;
† electricity production has been calculated as wave energy multiplied with a plant
efficiency of 5%.

The resulting distribution data of electricity production together with the duration curve
are shown in Fig. 3 (bottom).

4. Results

Results are generated in the same form as Fig. 2, i.e. a curve of excess electricity
production for increasing RES inputs expressing the rate of integration of the RES into
the electricity supply. Results have been generated for each of the different RES and for
relevant combinations in order to identify an optimal mixture. It should be added that
electricity productions equal to 100% of the demand is hard to imagine in practice
especially for such technologies as PV and wave power. For example an annual
production of 25 TWh from PV requires approximately 25.000 MWp installed capacity,
which for both financial as well as practical reasons is not likely. And the same goes for
wave power. At the same time it is not likely that such amount of RES will be added to
the reference system without improving the system in order be to able to integrate more
RES and thereby decreasing the excess production. Meanwhile the analysis is valid to
illustrate the differences between the three different sources and to identify optimal
combinations.
 H. Lund / Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 503–515 511

Wind Power, Photo Voltaic and Optimal Mixture

Excess Electricity Production

Excess production (TWh)

25
Photo Voltaic
20
Wave Power
15 Wind Power
Optimix
10
5
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
RES production (TWh)

Fig. 4. The integration of individual renewable sources compared to the optimal mixture.

4.1. Individual renewable energy sources

The results of the different RES are shown in Fig. 4. In general, photovoltaic is the RES
with the highest excess production followed by wave power and onshore wind power. In
another study the same curve has been generated for more than 1 year for each renewable
source [40]. Even though there are variations from 1 year to another, the results in terms of
excess production are almost exactly the same for each of the individual renewable sources.
Also the actual electricity production from various installations of PV has been compared to
an estimate based on the sunshine during a test reference year. Such ‘synthetic’ photo voltaic
results in an excess production a little bit higher than the actual measurements. This is most
likely due to the fact that the actual measurements include an element of correlation between
the many locations, while the synthetically generated distribution in principle assumes all
installations to be located in the same spot. This emphasises the importance of using
measurements and not synthetic data. Consequently, it also indicates that the result of the
synthetic wave power data is likely to slightly overestimate the excess production.

4.2. Optimal mix of different renewable energy sources

The result of combinations of different RES has been calculated as shown in Fig. 5 for
the combination of onshore wind and photo voltaic. The figure shows the excess
production for different inputs of electricity from RES illustrated by the curves starting
with a total of 5 TWh rising in steps of 5 TWh to a total of 25 TWh. Each curve shows the
resulting excess production for different shares of photovoltaic and wind power. To the left
the share of PV is cero, and to the right the share of PV is 100%. All the curves show an
optimal combination in which the excess production is minimal. The optimal combination
is generated when the PV is between 20 and 40%. In the same way optimal combinations
of PV, onshore wind and wave power have been identified.

4.3. Optimal mixture and resulting excess production

Fig. 6 shows the optimal combination of the three renewable sources, i.e. the
combination of the minimum excess electricity production. Fig. 4 compares excess
512 H. Lund / Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 503–515

Photo Voltaic and Onshore Wind Power

Excess Electricity Production
25 25 TWh
Excess production (TWh) 20 TWh
20 15 TWh
10 TWh
15
5 TWh
10 Optimum

0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Share of PV production (Percent)

Fig. 5. The analysis of identifying optimal combinations of photo voltaic and onshore wind power.

production from PV, onshore wind power and wave power with such optimal mix of the
three renewable energy sources. The diagram shows that the optimal mixture results in less
excess production. And consequently, the diagram illustrates that the combination of
different sources reduces the integration problem, however, it is still considerable. It
should be emphasised that a very high percentage of RES can be integrated into the
electricity supply with out any excess production if other measures such as flexible energy
systems are implemented. Fig. 4 shows how a certain combination of RES units will help
such implementation strategies.

5. Conclusion

This paper has analysed the problems of integration of electricity production from
fluctuating renewable energy sources into the electricity supply. The magnitude of the
problem has been illustrated in terms of excess electricity production when different RES
are integrated into a Danish reference system with a high degree of CHP.
The idea has been to take benefit of the different patterns in the fluctuations of different
renewable sources. And the purpose has been to identify optimal mixtures from a technical

Optimal combination of RES

30

25
20
TWh/year

Wave
15 PV
Wind
10

5
0
0 5 10 15 20 25
TWh/year

Fig. 6. Optimal combination of the renewable sources, i.e. the combination of minimum excess production.
 H. Lund / Renewable Energy 31 (2006) 503–515 513

point of view. Investments have not been included in the analysis. At the present
development stage of photo voltaic and wave power such new technologies will be
excluded when identifying an economically optimal solution.
The analyses have taken into account that certain ancillary services are needed in order
to secure the electricity supply system. And such ancillary services have not been available
from the renewable energy sources included in the analysis. So the results are due to
limitations in the minimum share of production from conventional power stations.
The result illustrates how the excess production increases when the RES input is raised
for wind power and photo voltaic as well as wave power. Meanwhile combinations of
different RES can slow down the increase in excess production. For example an optimal
combination of 20–40% photo voltaic and consequently 60–80% wind power has been
found to have less excess production than 100% of either photo voltaic or wind power.
The optimal mixture seems to be when onshore wind power produces approximately
50% of the total electricity production from RES. Meanwhile, the mixture between PV and
wave power seems to be dependent of the total amount of electricity production from RES.
When the total RES input is below 20% of demand, PV should cover 40% and wave power
only 10%. When the total input is above 80% of demand, PV should cover 20% and wave
power 30%.
The combination of different sources is alone far from a solution to the problem of
integration. Other measures such as investment in flexible energy supply and demand
systems and the integration of the transport sector has a much higher potential of solving
the problem. Meanwhile the identification of optimal mixtures of different RES can be
seen as a measure to supplement such potential solutions. Together the different measures
make possible the integration of a high percent of RES electricity production into the
supply without any major excess production.

Acknowledgements

The author wish to thank Kenn H.B. Frederiksen from EnergiMidt, Denmark, for
providing the PV data from the sol300 project, and Peter B. Frigaard, Aalborg University,
and Jan Pedersen, ELSAM engineering, for providing wave data and helpful comments.
Also the author wish to thank the participants of the ENERGEX 2004 conference in
Lisbon, 3–6 May 2004, were the preliminary results of this article were presented and
discussed.

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