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CRISIL Stock Rating and Investment Outlook

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43 views12 pages

CRISIL Stock Rating and Investment Outlook

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Tavish Saini
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Crisil Ltd.

Stock Update
Crisil Ltd.

March 4, 2024

1
Crisil Ltd.

Industry LTP Recommendation Base Case Fair Value Bull Case Fair Value Time Horizon

Credit Rating Rs 4940 Buy in Rs 4900-5000 band & add more on dips in Rs 4400-4500 band Rs 5414 Rs 5821 2-3 quarters

Our Take:
HDFC Scrip Code CRISILEQNR
Crisil is the oldest and a leading domestic credit rating agency in India. It is majorly owned by S&P Global which is world's foremost provider
BSE Code 500092
of transparent and independent ratings, benchmarks, analytics, data, research, commentary and ESG solution. The company has diversified
NSE Code CRISIL
over the years and ventured into research and analytics and advisory services which now accounts for ~75 of its revenue. The diversification
Bloomberg CRISIL IN
CMP Mar 2, 2024 4939.7 has been geographic as well with offices in Argentina, Australia, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Poland, Singapore, Switzerland, UAE, UK and USA.
Equity Capital (Rs cr) 7.3 This helps the company in getting a lot of business from the parent. Being the best-in-class industry leader, it delivers a diversified revenue
Face Value (Rs) 1 mix, superior margins, solid return ratios, and free-cash-flow yield.
Equity Share O/S (cr) 7.3
Market Cap (Rs cr) 36116 With the Government focus on capex, the outlook of the domestic credit rating agencies has been improving. Incentives by Government for
Book Value (Rs) 328.4 MSME sector and easy availability of finance for retail consumers is expected to further enhance credit demand. Corporates bond issuance
Avg. 52 Wk Volumes 41,800 increased by 25% in 2023 and could further increase 20% in 2024 as interest rates reverse. The Global Analytical Centre (GAC) continued to
52 Week High (Rs) 5250.0 drive surveillance support across S&P Ratings’ analytical practices and partnered on data and technology transformation programmes.
52 Week Low (Rs) 2971.5
Diversified revenue mix, levers for margin expansion, and solid return ratios have seen CRISIL's valuation multiplies stay at a premium to its
Share holding Pattern % (Dec 2023) peers. Preference for quality has seen investors/lenders prefer CRISIL, propelling it to be the best play in an otherwise crowded rating space.
Promoters 66.7
Institutions 20.1 Valuation & Recommendation:
Non Institutions 13.2 In 2024, the expected soft landing of the global economy could have a bearing on discretionary spends by global clients. CRISIL remains
Total 100.0 focused on customer centricity and delivering value to all its stakeholders through investments in technology, talent and new solutions.

We expect CRISIL’s Revenue/PAT to grow at 11%/14% CAGR over CY23-CY25E, led by improving macros, market share gains, cost
rationalization, and synergies from acquisitions. We believe investors can buy the stock in Rs 4900-5000 band and add on dips in Rs 4400-
4500 band (38.25x CY25E EPS) for a base case fair value of Rs 5414 (46.5x CY25E EPS) and bull case fair value of Rs 5821 (50x CY25E EPS)
over the next 2-3 quarters.
* Refer at the end for explanation on Risk Ratings

Fundamental Research Analyst


Atul Karwa
[Link]@[Link]

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Crisil Ltd.
Financial Summary
(Rs cr) Q4CY23 Q4CY22 YoY (%) Q3CY23 QoQ (%) CY22 CY23 CY24E CY25E
Operating Income 918 822 11.6 736 24.7 2,769 3,140 3,488 3,891
EBITDA 269 216 24.4 192 40.3 713 868 980 1,097
APAT 210 158 33.0 152 38.2 564 658 758 851
Diluted EPS (Rs) 28.7 21.6 33.0 20.8 38.2 77.2 90.1 103.7 116.4
RoE-% 33.5 33.1 32.4 31.9
P/E (x) 64.0 54.8 47.6 42.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 49.5 40.3 35.2 31.0
(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

Q4CY23 Result Review


CRISIL reported robust topline growth of 12% YoY to Rs 918cr driven by 18% growth in Rating Services to Rs 210cr and 10% increase in
Research, Analytics & Solution vertical to Rs 708cr. EBITDA grew by 24% to Rs 269cr as other expenses remained under control. Consequently,
EBITDA margin expanded ~300bps to 29.3%. PAT grew by 33% YoY to Rs 210cr and PAT margin stood at 22.9% on account of one-off gain of
Rs 29.4 crore due to sharp devaluation of the Argentinian peso in December. The Ratings segment grew 18.3% in the quarter and 16.4% for
the year ended CY23. The research, analytics and solutions segment grew 9.8% in the quarter and 12.4% in year ended CY23. The Board of
Directors recommended final dividend of Rs 28 per share taking total dividend for the year to Rs 54 per share.

After strong growth in the corporate bond market during the first half of 2023, issuances declined in the second half as yields rose. Bank credit
growth was steady, supported by both retail and services. In Research, Global Research & Risk Solutions (GR&RS) saw traction in research and
lending solutions. Global Benchmarking Analytics (GBA) saw momentum in corporate and investment banking (CIB), driven by the emphasis
on client engagement and product innovation. Market Intelligence & Analytics (Ml&A) witnessed momentum in credit, risk and consulting
offerings.

Long term Triggers


Credit demand remains strong; growth to moderate
Credit growth in India is expected to moderate to 14 per cent in FY25 from the existing 16 per cent as deposit growth is unable to keep pace
with loans, according to a report by S&P Global Ratings. Credit demand continues to remain strong, driven by resilient economic backdrop
which is highly conducive to growth. Asset quality is improving, buoyed by a confluence of supportive structural and cyclical factors enabling
banks to lend more. Banks have bolstered their capitalization in the past few years following several stints of fund raising and government
infusions into the public sector banks (PSBs).

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Crisil Ltd.
Credit growth has remained strong across sectors

(Source: RBI, HDFC sec)

Revamped credit guarantee scheme to drive higher lending to MSME


FM Nirmala Sitharaman in the Budget speech for FY24 announced launch of a revamped credit guarantee scheme worth Rs 9,000 crore for
MSMEs. Sitharaman said this would enable collateral-free credit of Rs 2 lakh crore loans to the small businesses. The scheme, which took
effect from April 1, 2023, offers a helping hand to several small firms that were hurt badly when the Covid outbreak started. The infusion of
Rs 9,000 crore for a credit guarantee fund means that an additional ~Rs 2 lakh crore of collateral-free funds can now flow to MSMEs, because
there will be a guarantee. The Economic Survey 2022-23 revealed that the YoY growth in credit since the January-March quarter of 2022 has
moved into double digits. The credit growth to the MSME sector has been remarkably high, over 30.5% on an average, during Jan-Nov 2022,
supported by the extended ECLG scheme. Increased credit to the MSME sector would entail higher business for rating agencies.

Strong momentum in Research and Advisory vertical


With corporates starting to focus on growth opportunities and significant capital raising, Crisil’s customised research business has benefitted
significantly, driving strong mandate flows and acquiring new clients. Its Industry research reports have witnessed excellent traction among
corporate clients. EBIT margin are also on an improving trajectory. Crisil continues to maintain dominant position in Funds and Fixed Income
Research business and largest provider of fixed income indices. It launched nine indices in 2021, taking the total to 107. In CY23 revenue from
Research and Advisory business has increased 17% YoY. However, EBIT margins contracted 120bps from highs of CY22 to 20.9%.

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Crisil Ltd.
Risks & Concerns
Slowdown in economic activity
Rating revenue of credit rating agencies are dependent on economic growth which would drive higher volumes. Slowdown in economic
activity can impact revenue growth from ratings segment.

Rating standards and quality


Rating reports are used by lenders to determine the financial viability of the entity. Failure by the company to maintain the quality of rating
could result in loss of trust and impact growth.

IRB based approach by banks


If Banks whose clients avail Credit Rating Services under the Basel II framework migrate to the internal rating based (IRB) approach for Credit
risk, it could have an adverse effect on the company’s revenue and profits.

Regulatory scrutiny
Credit rating agencies (CRAs) have come under regulatory scrutiny in the wake of loan defaults by leading corporates. To enhance CRAs’ rating
process and quality of disclosures, SEBI keeps prescribing higher disclosure of data by CRAs. This apart CRAs come under scrutiny of regulators
and are also fined for lapses that may not be fully attributable to them.

Increasing competition
There are three major established players in the Indian credit rating market and over the last few years many new players have entered the
market, thereby increasing competition. Many clients look for the best deal they can get reducing the bargaining power of credit rating
agencies. Many clients insist on fixed fee cap structure which may impact revenues.

Retention of employees, a challenge


Employees are the core asset for a credit rating agency and hence retaining them is crucial. While CRISIL remains the best paymaster, the risk
of employee movement can expose it to risks of attrition, retraining and reskilling.

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Crisil Ltd.
Company Background:
CRISIL is a global analytical company providing ratings, research, and risk and policy advisory services. It is amongst India's leading ratings
agency and the foremost provider of high-end research to the world's largest banks and leading corporations. CRISIL is majority owned
(66.7%) by S&P Global Inc., a leading provider of transparent and independent ratings, benchmarks, analytics and data to the capital and
commodity markets worldwide.
With a strong track record of growth, culture of innovation and global footprint it has delivered independent opinions, actionable insights
and efficient solutions to over 100,000 customers. Its businesses operate from India, Argentina, Australia, China, Hong Kong, Poland,
Singapore, Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), The United Kingdom (UK) and the United States of America (USA).

Businesses
Crisil Ratings pioneered credit rating in India in 1987, and has emerged as a leader with independent, analytical rigour and innovation in
ratings. Its capabilities span the entire range of debt instruments. Through its Global Analytical Centre (GAC), it provides analytical, research
and data services to S&P Global Inc. GAC operates as a centralised research and analytics hub for S&P Global Ratings Services (SPGRS) teams
spread across the US, EMEA and APAC regions.

CRISIL Research segments


Global Research & Analytics (GR&A) is in the business of providing solutions to leading investment and commercial banks, private equity
players, hedge funds, and asset management and insurance companies globally. It has offshore delivery centres in Argentina, China, India
and Poland and onsite delivery centres in London, Melbourne, Sydney, and New York, supporting clients across time zones and languages. It
has made significant investments in technology and has developed utilities, platforms, tools, and frameworks catering to various client
requirements.

CRISIL Coalition provides objective research and high-end analytics to support strategic and tactical decision-making across four areas:
competitor analytics, financial resources analytics, client analytics, and country analytics.

Greenwich Associates: Acquired in Feb’20 for a consideration of US$40mn, it is a leading global provider of data, analytics and insights to the
financial services industry. It specialises in providing unique high-value data and actionable recommendations to help our clients improve
their business results.

CRISIL Infrastructure Advisory provides a comprehensive range of advisory services in urban, energy and natural resources, transport and
logistics, and infrastructure financing across India and other emerging countries to governments, multilateral agencies, investors, large public
and private sector firms.

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Crisil Ltd.
Revenue breakup

(Source: Company, HDFC Sec)

Global Presence

(Source: Company, HDFC Sec)

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Crisil Ltd.
Segmental Performance
(Rs cr) Q1CY21 Q2CY21 Q3CY21 Q4CY21 Q1CY22 Q2CY22 Q3CY22 Q4CY22 Q1CY23 Q2CY23 Q3CY23 Q4CY23
Revenue
Rating Services 149 137 154 165 163 155 170 177 187 191 186 210
Research, Analytics & Solutions 346 392 417 541 432 513 513 645 528 580 550 708
Revenue Share (%)
Rating Services 30.1 25.8 26.9 23.4 27.5 23.2 24.9 21.6 26.1 24.7 25.2 22.8
Research, Analytics & Solutions 69.9 74.2 73.1 76.6 72.5 76.8 75.1 78.4 73.9 75.3 74.8 77.2
EBIT
Rating Services 70 52 64 66 78 60 70 71 90 78 81 86
Research, Analytics & Solutions 56 84 84 116 100 115 97 144 109 106 112 166
EBIT Margin (%)
Rating Services 47.2 38.1 41.9 40.0 47.6 38.8 41.0 40.2 48.1 40.8 43.6 41.1
Research, Analytics & Solutions 16.1 21.5 20.2 21.5 23.1 22.5 19.0 22.3 20.7 18.3 20.3 23.5

Peer Comparision
CMP Mcap EPS OPM PATM RoE D/E P/E P/B
(TTM, Dec’23)
(Rs) (Rs cr) (Rs) (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x)
CRISIL 4940 36116 93.9 27.7 21.0 27.4 0.0 52.6 15.0
ICRA 5807 5605 143.8 31.8 33.4 15.5 0.0 40.4 6.0
CARE Ratings 1167 3482 34.4 34.6 30.8 13.9 0.0 33.9 4.9

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Crisil Ltd.
Financials
Income Statement Balance Sheet
(Rs cr) CY21 CY22 CY23 CY24E CY25E (Rs cr) CY21 CY22 CY23 CY24E CY25E
Net Revenues 2301 2769 3140 3488 3891 SOURCE OF FUNDS
Growth (%) 16.1 20.3 13.4 11.1 11.6 Share Capital 7 7 7 7 7
Operating Expenses 1695 2056 2271 2508 2794 Reserves & Surplus 1571 1785 2182 2487 2826
EBITDA 606 713 868 980 1097 Shareholders' Funds 1578 1792 2189 2494 2834
Growth (%) 18.6 17.7 21.8 12.9 11.9 Total Debt 0 0 0 0 0
EBITDA Margin (%) 26.3 25.8 27.7 28.1 28.2 Net Deferred Taxes -59 -79 -86 -86 -86
Depreciation 106 103 104 106 111 Other Non-Curr. Liab. 103 66 78 87 97
Other Income 82 139 107 129 140 Total Sources of Funds 1622 1779 2182 2496 2845
EBIT 582 749 871 1003 1126 APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Interest expenses 9 6 4 4 5 Net Block & Goodwill 661 619 635 589 535
PBT 618 742 868 999 1121 CWIP 5 14 31 15 8
Tax 153 178 209 241 270 Investments 645 683 1056 1501 1946
Adj. PAT 431 564 658 758 851 Other Non-Curr. Assets 149 167 188 219 237
Growth (%) 21.6 30.9 16.7 15.1 12.3 Total Non Current Assets 1460 1483 1909 2324 2726
EPS 59.2 77.2 90.1 103.7 116.4 Debtors 399 759 690 717 768
Cash & Equivalents 294 321 370 371 371
Other Current Assets 291 188 260 296 320
Total Current Assets 984 1269 1319 1384 1458
Creditors 134 144 143 181 194
Other Current Liab & Provisions 689 829 905 1032 1146
Total Current Liabilities 823 973 1047 1212 1339
Net Current Assets 161 296 272 171 119
Total Application of Funds 1622 1779 2182 2496 2845

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Crisil Ltd.
Cash Flow Statement Key Ratios
(Rs cr) CY21 CY22 CY23 CY24E CY25E Particulars CY21 CY22 CY23 CY24E CY25E
Reported PBT 618 742 868 999 1,121 Profitability Ratios (%)
Non-operating & EO items -70 -54 -75 -22 -8 EBITDA Margin 26.3 25.8 27.7 28.1 28.2
Interest Expenses -1 -2 4 4 5 EBIT Margin 25.3 27.0 27.8 28.7 28.9
Depreciation 106 103 104 106 111 APAT Margin 18.7 20.4 21.0 21.7 21.9
Working Capital Change -54 -112 125 101 52 RoE 29.8 33.5 33.1 32.4 31.9
Tax Paid -197 -220 -244 -241 -270 RoCE 40.2 44.4 43.8 42.8 42.3
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a ) 403 456 780 948 1,012 Solvency Ratio (x)
Capex 27 -39 -59 -45 -50 Net Debt/EBITDA -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3
Free Cash Flow 430 417 721 903 962 Net D/E -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
Investments -130 -27 -249 -445 -445 Per Share Data (Rs)
Non-operating income 15 4 -18 0 0 EPS 59.2 77.2 90.1 103.7 116.4
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b ) -88 -62 -327 -490 -495 CEPS 73.7 91.3 104.3 118.3 131.6
Debt Issuance / (Repaid) 0 0 0 0 0 BV 216.5 245.1 299.5 341.2 387.6
Interest Expenses 0 -6 -4 -4 -5 Dividend 46.0 48.0 54.0 62.0 70.0
FCFE 315 388 450 454 512 Turnover Ratios (days)
Share Capital Issuance 44 36 9 0 0 Debtor days 56 76 84 74 70
Dividend -276 -343 -358 -453 -512 Creditor days 19 18 17 17 18
Others -58 -54 -55 0 0 VALUATION (x)
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c ) -291 -368 -408 -457 -517 P/E 83.5 64.0 54.8 47.6 42.4
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c) 24 26 46 1 0 P/BV 22.8 20.2 16.5 14.5 12.7
EV/EBITDA 58.4 49.5 40.3 35.2 31.0
EV / Revenues 15.4 12.7 11.1 9.9 8.8
Dividend Yield (%) 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4
Dividend Payout (%) 77.8 62.2 60.0 59.8 60.1
(Source: Company, HDFC sec)

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Crisil Ltd.
Price chart

HDFC Sec Retail Research Rating description


Green Rating stocks
This rating is given to stocks that represent large and established business having track record of decades and good reputation in the industry. They are industry leaders or have significant market share. They have multiple streams of cash flows and/or strong balance
sheet to withstand downturn in economic cycle. These stocks offer moderate returns and at the same time are unlikely to suffer severe drawdown in their stock prices. These stocks can be kept as a part of long term portfolio holding, if so desired. This stocks offer low
risk and lower reward and are suitable for beginners. They offer stability to the portfolio.

Yellow Rating stocks


This rating is given to stocks that have strong balance sheet and are from relatively stable industries which are likely to remain relevant for long time and unlikely to be affected much by economic or technological disruptions. These stocks have emerged stronger over
time but are yet to reach the level of green rating stocks. They offer medium risk, medium return opportunities. Some of these have the potential to attain green rating over time.

Red Rating stocks


This rating is given to emerging companies which are riskier than their established peers. Their share price tends to be volatile though they offer high growth potential. They are susceptible to severe downturn in their industry or in overall economy. Management of
these companies need to prove their mettle in handling cyclicality of their business. If they are successful in navigating challenges, the market rewards their shareholders with handsome gains; otherwise their stock prices can take a severe beating. Overall these stocks
offer high risk high return opportunities.
Digitally signed by
ATUL JAGDISH ATUL JAGDISH KARWA
KARWA Date: 2024.03.04
[Link] +05'30'

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Crisil Ltd.

Disclosure:
I, Atul Karwa, Reesearch Analyst, MMS, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. SEBI conducted the inspection and based on their observations have issued
advise/warning. The said observations have been complied with. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Research Analyst or his/her relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. does not have any financial interest in the subject company. Also Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its Associate may have beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately
preceding the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material conflict of interest.
Any holding in stock – No
HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

Disclaimer:
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