Subject: Statistics and Probability
Grade Level: Grade 11
Objective: Construct the probability mass function of a discrete random
variable. Calculate the expected value.
Learning across curriculum:
1) Physics - Analyzing the probability of different outcomes in quantum mechanics
experiments relates to the objective of constructing probability mass functions in
Statistics and Probability.
2) Economics - Predicting the likelihood of various economic events occurring
involves understanding probabilities, linking to the calculation of expected values.
3) Biology - Investigating genetic inheritance patterns and predicting offspring traits
can be connected to probability concepts and expected values in Statistics.
Review Motivation:
[Teaching Strategy: Inquiry-Based Learning]
[Instructional Materials:]
1) Engage students in a real-life scenario where they have to predict outcomes
based on different probabilities.
2) Use interactive quizzes to assess students' understanding of constructing
probability mass functions and calculating expected values.
3) Incorporate puzzles and riddles related to probability to challenge students' critical
thinking skills.
Activity 1: Probability Carnival
[Teaching Strategy: Cooperative Learning]
Materials - Carnival game props, dice, cards
Significance - Students will apply probability concepts in a fun and interactive way.
Instructions -
1) Set up different carnival games with known probabilities.
2) Have students calculate the expected value for each game.
3) Rubric - Accuracy of expected value calculation - 20 pts.
Assessment Questions:
1) What is the probability of rolling a prime number on a fair six-sided die?
2) Calculate the expected value of winning a game where you have a 1/4 chance of
winning $10 and a 3/4 chance of losing $5.
3) If a card game has a 1/13 probability of drawing an ace, what is the expected
value of winning $50?
Activity 2: Data Analysis Project
[Teaching Strategy: Project-Based Learning]
Materials - Data sets, laptops
Significance - Students will collect data, construct probability mass functions, and
calculate expected values based on real-world scenarios.
Instructions -
1) Students choose a topic to collect data on and analyze.
2) Construct a probability mass function using the collected data.
3) Calculate the expected value of a specific outcome.
Rubric - Data analysis accuracy - 25 pts.
Assessment Questions:
1) How can you apply the concept of expected value in making decisions in your
daily life?
2) Explain the difference between theoretical probability and experimental
probability.
3) Calculate the expected value of a scenario where you have a 1/5 chance of
winning $100 and a 4/5 chance of losing $20.
Activity 3: Probability Board Game Design
[Teaching Strategy: Differentiation]
Materials - Board game materials, dice, cards
Significance - Encourages creativity and critical thinking in designing a board game
incorporating probability concepts.
Instructions -
1) Students design a board game that involves probability calculations.
2) Include elements like chance cards and dice rolls with specific probabilities.
3) Rubric - Creativity and incorporation of probability concepts - 15 pts.
Assessment Questions:
1) How does understanding probability help in making informed decisions in
uncertain situations?
2) Discuss the importance of calculating the expected value in risk assessment.
3) Design a scenario for your board game where players must calculate the
expected value of a specific outcome.
ANALYSIS:
Activity 1 - Students demonstrated a solid understanding of constructing probability
mass functions and calculating expected values through interactive carnival games.
Activity 2 - Students effectively applied probability concepts to real-world data
analysis projects, showcasing their ability to calculate expected values.
Activity 3 - Students showcased creativity and critical thinking in designing board
games that integrated probability concepts, enhancing their understanding of
constructing probability mass functions.
ABSTRACTION:
Understanding the construction of probability mass functions and calculating
expected values allows students to make informed decisions based on the likelihood
of different outcomes, identifying patterns and rules to predict future events
accurately.
APPLICATION:
[Teaching Strategy: Role-Playing]
Task 1 - Role-play a scenario where students have to assess the expected value of
different investment options.
Task 2 - Create a real-life scenario where students analyze the probabilities of
different health outcomes and calculate the expected value of preventive measures.
ASSESSMENT:
[Teaching Strategy: Problem-Based Learning]
[Instructional Materials:]
Question 1 - Calculate the expected value of flipping a fair coin where you win $10 if
it lands heads and lose $5 if it lands tails.
Question 2 - If a spinner is divided into 8 equal sections, with 3 marked "win $20"
and 5 sections marked "lose $10," what is the expected value of spinning the spinner
once?
Question 3 - Explain how constructing a probability mass function can help in
decision-making processes in various fields.
Assignment:
1) Assignment Overview: Research and write a report on a real-world application of
probability and expected value, presenting your findings to the class.
Assignment Question: How can understanding probability and expected value
impact decision-making in finance?
2) Assignment Overview: Create a presentation analyzing the probability of different
weather patterns affecting agricultural outcomes, applying probability concepts to
real-life scenarios.
Assignment Question: Calculate the expected value of crop yields based on
weather probabilities in a specific region.
