A Ph D Thesis

On

SUSTAINABLE AND RESILIENT INTEGRATED URBAN

STORMWATER MANAGEMENT – A CASE STUDY
A Ph D Thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of

DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
IN
CIVIL ENGINEERING

Submitted by

L R N PRASAD RENTACHINTALA

Under the Esteemed Guidance of

Dr. [Link] REDDY, Ph D

Associate Professor

[Link] OF ENGINEERING
(AUTONOMOUS)
DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING
ANDHRA UNIVERSITY
VISAKHAPATNAM
2021-2022
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I sincerely thank to our principal [Link] Rao, Andhra University

College of Engineering [A], Andhra University for his advice and support in this Ph D
work. I should extend my deep sense of gratitude to [Link]
Reddy, Professor & Head of Civil Engineering Department for his constant support in
presenting thesis document.
I deeply indebted to my research guide [Link] Reddy, Associate
Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, for his valuable and inspiring guidance,
comments, suggestions and encouragement. Also, I am very much grateful to
[Link] Kumar Mohapatra, Professor, IIT Gandhinagar for his comments,
suggestions and continuous support.
I extend my sincere thanks to all other teaching and non-teaching staff of the
institution, who helped directly or indirectly for their cooperation and encouragement.
I wish to thank AP CRDA/AMRDA, CWC, CCCR of IITM Pune and ground
water and water audit department, AP for providing data and related information of this
research work.
I would like to express my gratitude to Mr. Lakhwinder Singh, research scholar,
IIT Roorkee for his invaluable support and suggestions on development of SWAT based
hydrological models.
I wish to express my thanks to BENTLEY, Pune staff for offering StormCAD
software as a connect edition.
I would like to convey my deep sense of gratitude to Mr. [Link], KGBO,
Hyderabad for his inspiring suggestions and support for interpretation of certain aspects
related to Krishna river at Prakasam barrage, Vijayawada, AP.
I wish to sincerely thank management, Principal and all the staff of department of
Civil Engineering, Bapatla Engineering College, Bapatla for their continuous support
and motivation to carry this research work.
I am very much indebted to my parents and my wife for their constant support
and encouragement throughout this research work. Finally, I am dedicating this research
work to my mother who recently passed away.

L R N Prasad Rentachintala

i
 ABSTRACT
Keywords: Hydrological modeling, climate change, water quality, stormwater network
model, stormwater management model and reuse of stormwater

Stormwater drainage and its management in urban areas have become a challenge due to
the rapid and random growth of urban areas, removal of vegetation, reduction in the
effectiveness of drainage infrastructure, the impact of climate change. A few of the challenges
are stormwater management in terms of water quantity, quality and climate change. Sustainable
Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS), Low Impact Development (LID) practices are the current
concepts and effective in mitigating climate change effect which results in a change in rainfall-
runoff patterns and further reduction in runoff. Best Management Practices (BMP), Water
Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) and Sponge City Programme are being towards
implementation for stormwater management in a few parts of the world. Urban hydrology plays
a vital role in the urban water management system. However, optimal results can only be
possible when the combined effect of climate change, land use patterns, ecology, and societal
aspects are considered. Thus, there is a need to provide sustainable and resilient urban drainage
systems to manage stormwater more efficiently.
There is a need to review present measures and practices of stormwater management.
Further, there is a need to study the implications of urban hydrology, climate change, water
quality on stormwater and the reuse of stormwater for its efficient management in urban
environments. Thus, there is a need to study and propose sustainable and resilient integrated
stormwater management in urban areas. Hence, the present study has undertaken with an aim to
study and propose sustainable and resilient integrated stormwater management for proposed
Amaravati city of Andhra Pradesh state, India.
The present study needs various modelling tools such as SWAT, StormCAD and SWMM
etc. to perform objectives set for integrated urban stormwater management which is to be
sustainable and resilient. SWAT is used for hydrological modelling, StormCAD is applied for
stormwater network model as a underground drainage system. SWMM is used to determine
performance of various LID and BMP options for efficient stormwater management. As the
present study is aimed to determine sustainable and resilient integrated urban stormwater

ii
management, the use of SWAT, StormCAD and SWMM are very much necessary to apply them
separately.
In the present study, proposed Amaravati city of bifurcated new state of Andhra Pradesh,
India is considered which is envisioned to be the pioneer Smart City of India and to perform as
Water Sensitive City as well. This study aimed to develop an efficient stormwater management
system by applying a hydrologic model using SWAT software for the proposed Amaravati city.
A hydrologic model with hydrologic cycle diagram is developed with actual data for the period
from January 1982 to July 2014. Also, the hydrologic model with hydrologic cycle diagram is
developed with projected data for the period from August 2014 to December 2050. The
catchment for the chosen study area is divided into 11 number of sub-catchments. Inflow,
outflow, evaporation, runoff and various other hydrologic parameters are obtained from the
results for each sub-catchment. The results obtained are used for further study on developing
efficient stormwater management system for the selected study area.
In the present study, effect of climate change on precipitation has analyzed for the
proposed Amaravati city of bifurcated state of Andhra Pradesh which is envisaged to be the
pioneer Smart City and to perform as Water Sensitive City as well of India. Trends of
precipitation changes for the historical time period, 1951-2005 and projected RCP
[Representative Concentration Pathways] 4.5 scenario time period, 2006-2095 are determined by
considering precipitation time series as monthly averages of high resolution global data made
available by CCCR [Centre for Climate Change Research] of IITM, Pune, India. Mann-Kendall
[M-K] test and Sen’s slope estimator are applied to perform trend analysis of precipitation due to
climate change. As the precipitation time series is autocorrelated, modified version of Mann-
Kendall (M-K) test i.e. bootstrapped bias corrected pre-whitening M-K test and R programming
are used for trend analysis. The results of trend analysis have indicated that the effect of climate
change on precipitation on the considered study area is 0.5% increasing trend per decade.
In the present study, the climate change impacts on temperature are assessed for the
proposed Amaravati city of Andhra Pradesh state, India. Trends of temperature variations for the
time period, 1981-2021 are found by considering daily temperature time series. Mann-Kendall
[M-K] test and Sen’s slope estimator are used to carry out trend analysis of temperature because
of climate change. Various modified versions of Mann-Kendall (M-K) test and R programming
are applied for trend analysis as the temperature time series is significantly auto-correlated. The

iii
trend analysis shows that the effect of climate change on minimum temperature for the
considered study area is about 1.25% increasing trend per decade and is about 0.84% per decade
with increasing trend for maximum temperature.
In the present study, Amaravati, the proposed smart city of Andhra Pradesh, India, which
is envisioned as a water sensitive city is considered to assess the impacts of proposed and
initiated urbanization on water quality of the Krishna River in the vicinity. Long-term surface
water quality data of various parameters of Krishna River is obtained from CWC [Central Water
Commission]. Trends of various parameter concentrations are analyzed using a modified version
of Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, bootstrapped M-K trend test with optional bias corrected pre-
whitening and R programming are used affecting water quality prior to and at the
commencement of urbanization. During the onset of urbanization, BOD minimum is decreased
to 0.2 mg/l from 0.49 mg/l while the maximum BOD is increased by 67.7%. DO minimum value
is decreased by 29.33% while maximum DO value is decreased by 4.47% at the beginning of
urbanization. Total coliforms minimum count is increased to 330 from 2 MPN/ 100 ml while the
maximum count of total coliforms is increased to 16000 from 2400 MPN/100 ml during the
process of urbanization. Faecal coilforms minimum count is increased from 2 to 80 MPN/100 ml
while maximum count is increased to 16000 from 800 MPN/100 ml during the process of
urbanization. It is found that due to urbanization, pH and DO values are exceeded the allowable
limit. Also, total and faecal coliforms become higher in their count than tolerance limits at the
onset of urbanization. The findings of the present study can help for efficient water quality
management for any proposed and/or existing city to perform as a water sensitive city.
In the present study, the trends of groundwater level and quality for the proposed
Amaravati city of Andhra Pradesh state, India which is envisaged to perform as a water sensitive
city. Water sensitive city is one of the efficient and advanced concepts for integrated urban
stormwater management. Trends of groundwater level and quality are evaluated using data from
CWC [Central Water Commission] and groundwater and water audit department for the period
1996-2021 and 2000-2020, respectively. Mann-Kendall [M-K] test and Sen’s slope estimator are
applied to perform trend analysis of groundwater level and quality. When the time series of a
parameter is auto-correlated, modified versions of Mann-Kendall (M-K) test and R programming
are used for trend analysis. The trend analysis indicates that most of the trends are insignificant
and decreasing. Groundwater level is having an insignificant decreasing trend at 5% significance

iv
level with a decline of 0.152 mm per year. pH is having an insignificant decreasing trend with a
decrease of 0.001 per year. Total alkalinity is having an insignificant increasing trend with an
increase of 3.06 mg/l per year. Total hardness is with an insignificant decreasing trend with a
decrease of 0.9 mg/l per year.
In the present study, proposed Amaravati city of bifurcated new state of Andhra Pradesh,
India is considered which is envisioned to be the pioneer Smart City of India and to perform as
Water Sensitive City as well. This study aimed to develop an efficient stormwater network
system by developing a network model using StormCAD software for the proposed Amaravati
city. A stormwater network model is build up to carry a discharge of 23 m3/sec including climate
change effect and any unanticipated future flows adopting the guidelines and recommendations
of CPHEEO [Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organisation] manual on
stormwater drainage systems which contains numerous innovative and efficient design
procedures. Amaravati stormwater network system is designed as a underground gravity system
with conduit as most efficient and economical rectangular box section with dimensions as 3.8 m
x 2.5 m [rise]. Various innovative and efficient stormwater management practices and/or
measures are proposed as part of network development. The results obtained are used for further
study on developing efficient, sustainable and/or resilient integrated stormwater management
system for the selected study area i.e. proposed Amaravati city to perform as a Water Sensitive
City for longer duration.
In the present study, SWMM has applied for the considered study area i.e. proposed
Amaravati city of bifurcated new state of Andhra Pradesh. The present study focuses on
evaluation of the performance of various Low Impact Development (LID) control options for
efficient stormwater management with regard to reduction of runoff from the entire catchment of
the study area. Various LID control options are used for certain portion of each sub-catchment
area with a number of units. The performance of each LID control for each sub-catchment has
determined in terms of surface outflow from each LID control and further decrease in total
runoff from each sub-catchment. The present study finds peak runoff from each sub-catchment
and from entire catchment of proposed Amaravati city. Also, an assessment of diverse LID
controls with regard to NO LID control option has made in terms of attenuation percentage in
runoff as a metric to adopt sustainable and/or resilient integrated urban stormwater management
for the proposed Amaravati city to perform as a Water Sensitive City.

v
 In the present study, various reuse options of stormwater has analyzed. It is concluded
and recommended that a. canal system b. LID controls with BMP options c. combination of
canal system and LID controls as efficient measures and/or practices to attain sustainable and
resilient integrated stormwater management of proposed Amaravati city to perform as water
sensitive city for longer duration.

vi
 CONTENTS
Page No.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS i
ABSTRACT ii
LIST OF NOMENCLATURE xii
LIST OF TABLES xiii
LIST OF FIGURES xvii

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1-4

1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 Study Area 3
2 LITERATURE REVIEW 5-35
2.1 Low Impact Development (LID) and Best Management 5
Practices (BMP)
2.2 Hydrological aspects of climate change, urbanization and 6
resilience
2.3 Hydrological – Water quantity and quality aspects 7
2.4 Urban Water and Resilience Management 10
2.5 Water quality aspects 11
2.6 Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems 11
2.7 Reuse and treatment with management aspects 14
2.8 Hydrological Modelling using SWAT 19
2.9 Climate Change Impact Assessment on Precipitation
Studies 23
2.10 Climate Change Impact Assessment on Temperature
Studies 25
2.11 Stormwater Network Model Studies 26
2.12 Storm Water Management Model [SWMM] Studies 27
2.13 Impacts of urbanization on water quality of receiving
waters 29
2.14 Assessment of Trends of Groundwater Levels and Quality 31
3 METHODOLOGY 36-49
3.1 Methodology of Amaravati SWAT Model 38
3.1.1 SWAT Inputs 39

vii
 3.2 Assessment of Climate Change Impact on 39
precipitation, temperature, groundwater levels and quality,
and impacts of urbanization on water quality of the river
in the vicinity
3.2.1 Mann-Kendall Test 39
3.2.2 Sen’s slope estimator 40
3.2.3 Autocorrelation 40
3.2.4 Bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias 41
corrected pre-whitening
3.2.5 R Programming 42
3.2.6 Data considered for climate change impacts assessment 42
on precipitation
3.2.7 Data considered for climate change impacts assessment 42
on temperature
3.2.8 Data considered for impacts assessment of groundwater 42
levels and quality
3.2.9 Data considered for impacts assessment of urbanization 42
on receiving waters quality
3.3 Methodology of Stormwater Network Model Development 43
3.3.1 Data Considered 43
3.3.2 Development of Amaravati StormCAD Model 43
3.3.3 Amaravati Stormwater network model 45
3.4 Methodology of Stormwater Management 45
3.4.1 Data considered for development of Amaravati SWMM 46
model
3.4.2 Climatology data 46
3.4.3 Sub-catchment data 46
3.4.4 LID data 46
3.5 Reuse of stormwater study 48
3.6 Impacts of urbanization on surface water quality of the 49
River in the vicinity
4 MODELLING, ANALYSIS, RESULTS AND
DISCUSSION 50-133
4.1 Hydrological Modelling 50 - 55
4.1.1 Study Area Maps 51
4.1.2 SWAT Inputs 52
4.1.3 SWAT Model Description 53
4.1.4 Hydrological Modelling with actual data 54
4.1.5 Hydrological Modelling with projected data 55

viii
4.2 Climate Change Study 56 - 58
4.2.1 Data Considered 57
4.2.2 Check for Significant Autocorrelation 57
4.2.3 Trend Analysis using CORDEX daily data 58
4.3 Stormwater Network Model 59 - 65
4.3.1 Hydraulic Computations of design discharge 59
4.3.2 Design of Conduit Section [As box section] 60
4.3.3 Amaravati Stormwater Network Model 61
4.3.4 Various other components/considerations criteria for efficient 63
and sustainable and/or resilient integrated stormwater
management
4.4 Storm Water Management Model 66 – 67
4.4.1 Data considered for development of Amaravati SWMM Model 66
4.4.2 Climatology data 66
4.4.3 Sub-catchment data 66
4.4.4 LID data 67
4.5 Peak Runoff Determination 68 – 78
4.5.1 Rainfall Analysis 68
4.5.2 Peak Runoff Determination 71
[Link] Peak Runoff Determination using IDF Curves by Gumbel 71
Method
4.5.3 Peak runoff determination from entire study 77
4.6 Re-use of Stormwater Study 79 – 84
4.6.1 Stormwater management through canal system 79
4.6.2 Design of Canal section for re-use of stormwater available 79
4.6.3 Stormwater management through various LID control options 81
for each sub-basin
4.6.4 Option 1 82
4.6.5 Option 2 83
4.6.6 Option 3 with Option 1 or 2: In-situ storage / percolation within 84
or around premises [Rain water harvesting system]
4.7 Water Quality Analysis 84-98
4.7.1 Data Considered 85
4.7.2 Time series plots of various parameters 85
4.7.3 Trend Analysis of various parameters 90
4.7.4 Impacts of urbanization on groundwater levels and quality 94
[Link] Data Considered 94
[Link] Results and discussion 95
4.8 Results & Analysis 99-122
4.8.1 Hydrological modelling 99

ix
[Link] Hydrological modelling with actual data 99
[Link] Hydrological modelling with projected data 99
[Link] SWAT Model Results Analysis 101
[Link].1 Modified Rational Formula 101
4.8.2 Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Precipitation 103
[Link] Using high resolution monthly averages data 103
[Link] Using CORDEX daily precipitation data 104
[Link] Discussion of trend results of high resolution monthly
average data 106
[Link] Discussion of trend results of CORDEX daily data 108
[Link] Discussion of Innovative Trend Analysis 109
[Link] Discussion of Innovative Trend Analysis using
Wavelet-ANN hybrid model 112
4.8.3 Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Temperature 114
4.8.4 Stormwater Network Model 118
4.8.5 Stormwater Management Model 121
4.9 Calibration & Validation 123-133
4.9.1 SWAT Model Validation 123
4.9.2 Assessment of Climate Change Impact 129
[Link] Validation of Trend Analysis 129
[Link].1 Case I: Considering Tulluru Mandal daily precipitation data 129
[Link].2 Case II: Considering Tulluru point data of daily precipitation 130
4.9.3 Storm Water Management Model [SWMM] Calibration and 130
Validation
5 CONCLUSIONS 134-141
5.1 Summary 134
5.2 Significant Findings 134
5.2.1 Hydrological Modelling 134
5.2.2 Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Precipitation 136
5.2.3 Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Temperature 136
5.2.4 Stormwater Network Model [StormCAD Model] 137
5.2.5 Storm Water Management Model [SWMM] 138
5.2.6 Re-use of Stormwater excess study 139
5.2.7 Impacts of urbanization on surface water quality of 140
the river in the vicinity
5.2.8 Impacts of urbanization on groundwater levels and 140
Quality

x
5.3 Scope for further/future study 141
REFERENCES 142-176

xi
 LIST OF NOMENCLATURE

Acronym/Nomenclature Description/Full Form

AMRDA Amaravati Region Development Authority

ANN Artificial Neural Network
AP Andhra Pradesh
BMP Best Management Practices
CCCR Centre for Climate Change Research
CORDEX Coordinated Regional Downscale Experiment
CPHEEO Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering
Organization
CRDA Capital Region Development Authority
CWC Central Water Commission
DEM Digital Elevation Model
GCM General Circulation Model
GSI Green Stormwater Infrastructure
HRU Hydrological Response Unit
ICN Improved Curve Number
IUWM Integrated Urban Water Management
LID Low Impact Development
LIUDD Low Impact Urban Design and Development
LULC Land Use Land Cover
M-K Mann-Kendall
modifiedmk Modified Mann-Kendall
NSE Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency
PySWMM Python- Storm Water Management Model
R2 Coefficient of Determination
RCM Regional Climate Model
RCP Representative Concentration Pathways
RTC Real Time Control
SCM Stormwater Control Measure
SCP Sponge City Programme
SDSS Spatial Decision Support Systems
SUDS/SuDS Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems
SUWM Sustainable Urban Water Management
SWAT Soil and Water Assessment Tool
SWMM Storm Water Management Model
SWMP Stormwater Management Pond
UDS Urban Drainage Systems
WSUD Water Sensitive Urban Design

xii
 LIST OF TABLES

Table No. Table Description Page No.

2.1 Review of research on integrated stormwater management 8
2.2 Review of research on various Water Management and 12
2.3 Review of research on Stormwater Reuse and Treatment 17
2.4 Key drivers of integrated urban stormwater management 19
other Aspects/Practices
3.1 Sources of SWAT Inputs 39
3.2 Maximum daily rainfall for 5-year return period 43
3.3 Impervious area as a percentage of land use 47
3.4 Amaravati City land use/ land cover types and 47
percentage of each land use / land cover area
4.1.1 Sources of SWAT inputs 52
4.1.2 Details of Attributes of DEM 52
4.1.3 Sub-basin wise Areas 54
4.1.4 Results of Land Use/Land Cover Proportions 54
4.2.1 Check for Significant Autocorrelation – Monthly Data 57
4.2.2 Check for Significant Autocorrelation – Daily Data 58
4.3.1 Maximum daily rainfall for 5-year return period 59
4.3.2 Peak Flow Computations 60
4.3.3 Range of Cover 62
4.5.1 Maximum Annual Series of Rainfall Depth (mm) 68
for various durations in min.
4.5.2 Mean and Standard deviation of Maximum 69
Annual Series of Rainfall Depth
4.5.3 Computation using Gumbel Distribution Method 70
4.5.4 Duration Vs Intensity 70
4.5.5 Sub-basin wise Time of Concentrations 72
and Peak flows for minimum velocity
4.5.6 Sub-basin wise Time of Concentrations and 73
Peak flows for average velocity
4.5.7 Computation using Log Pearson Type III method 74
4.5.8 Duration Vs Intensity 74
4.5.9 Sub-basin wise Time of Concentrations and 76

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Table No. Table Description Page No.
Peak flows for minimum velocity
4.5.10 Sub-basin wise Time of Concentrations and 77
Peak flows for average velocity
4.5.11 Peak Runoff from various models and studies 78
4.6.1 Peak Runoff Rate for period of simulation 79
from 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
4.6.2 Peak Runoff Rate for period of simulation 79
from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050
4.6.3 Comparison of various LID Control Options 81
for Runoff Reduction
4.7.1 Trend results of parameters prior to urbanization 91
4.7.2 Trend results of parameters prior to urbanization 91
with minimal data
4.7.3 Trend results of parameters at onset of urbanization 91
4.7.4 Trend Analysis of parameters prior to urbanization 92
4.7.5 Trend Analysis of parameters at onset of urbanization 93
4.7.6 Krishna River Surface Water Quality Trend Analysis 94
at study area
4.7.7 Check for Significant Autocorrelation 95
4.7.8 Trend Results 95
4.7.9 Parameter wise Characteristics of Trend 96
4.7.10 Trend Results of Modified versions of Mann-Kendall 96
Test for Total Alkalinity
4.8.1 Sub-basin wise Maximum flow details 99
4.8.2 Sub-basin wise Maximum flow details 100
4.8.3 Peak Runoff Rate for period of simulation from 101
01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
4.8.4 Peak Runoff Rate for period of simulation from 102
01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
4.8.5 Peak Runoff Rate for period of simulation from 102
01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050
4.8.6 Peak Runoff Rate for period of simulation from 102
01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050
4.8.7 Time Period wise Trend Results 103
4.8.8 Historical Time Period Trend Results 103

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Table No. Table Description Page No.
4.8.9 Projected RCP4.5 Time Period Trend Results 103
4.8.10 Time Period wise Trend Analysis 104
4.8.11 Historical and Projected Time Periods Trend Analysis 104
4.8.12 Time Period wise Trend Results of CORDEX Daily Data 104
4.8.13 Time Period wise Trend Analysis of CORDEX Daily Data 105
4.8.14 Innovative Trend Analysis of Historical [1951-2005]
Precipitation Data 109
4.8.15 Trend Slope Results of Historical Precipitation Data at
Various Confidence Limits 109
4.8.16 Innovative Trend Analysis of RCP 4.5 [2006-2099]
Scenario Precipitation Data 110
4.8.17 Trend Slope Results of RCP 4.5 Scenario Precipitation
Data at Various Confidence Limits 110
4.8.18 Innovative Trend Analysis of RCP 8.5 [2006-2099]
Scenario Precipitation Data 111
4.8.19 Trend Slope Results of RCP 8.5 [2006-2099] Scenario
Precipitation Data 111
4.8.20 Innovative Trend Analysis of fitted Historical [1951-2005]
Precipitation Data 113
4.8.21 Trend Slope Results of fitted Historical [1951-2005]
Precipitation Data from Wavelet-ANN hybrid model at
Various Confidence Limits 113
4.8.22 Check for Significant Autocorrelation - Temperature 114
4.8.23 Temperature wise Trend Results 114
4.8.24 Minimum Temperature Trend Results 114
4.8.25 Maximum Temperature Trend Results 115
4.8.26 Amaravati StormCAD Model – Conduit Flex Table 118
4.8.27 Comparison of various LID Control Options for Runoff 122
Reduction
4.9.1 Mandal wise Maximum Daily Rainfall 123
4.9.2 Peak Runoff Rate for calibration period from 124
01-Jan-1979 to 31-Dec-1981

xv
Table No. Table Description Page No.
4.9.3 Peak runoff rate and related information on 124
02 September 1979 during calibration period from
01-Jan-1979 to 31-Dec-1981
4.9.4 NSE Check for Peak Runoff for calibration period from 125
01-Jan-1979 to 31-Dec-1981
4.9.5 NSE Check for Peak Runoff for period of simulation from 126
01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
4.9.6 NSE Check for Peak Runoff for period of simulation 127
from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050
4.9.7 Validation Table 128
4.9.8 Tulluru Mandal Daily Precipitation Trend Results 129
4.9.9 Tulluru Point Data Daily Precipitation Trend Results 130
4.9.10 Observed Precipitation Data 130

4.9.11 NSE Check for Total Runoff 131

4.9.12 Mandal wise Maximum Daily Rainfall 132

4.9.13 NSE Check for Peak Runoff 132

4.9.14 Validation Table 133

xvi
 LIST OF FIGURES

[Link]. Fig. Description Page No.

1.1 Detailed master plan of Amaravati city 4
2.1 Flow Chart of urban hydrology characteristics study 18

2.2 Process diagram of integrated urban stormwater management 18

3.1 Total Work Flow Sequence 36

3.2 Total Work Flow Chart 37

4.1.1 Study Area Map 51

4.1.2 Study area location in India Map 51

4.1.3 Land use land cover [LULC] GIS map of study area 51
4.1.4 Study Area Map with Sub-basins 52
4.3.1 Amaravati StormCAD Model 62
4.3.2 Inlet and Gutter System 63
4.3.3 Stormwater Channel Outfall 64
4.3.4 Stormwater Conduit Outfall 64
4.5.1 IDF Curve for 5 year return period using 71
Gumbel distribution method
4.5.2 IDF Curve for 5 year return period using Log Pearson 75
Type III distribution method
4.6.1 Trapezoidal Canal Section 80
4.7.1 Time series plot of DO Saturation 85
4.7.2 Time series plot of Mg 85
4.7.3 Time series plot of Al 86
4.7.4 Time series plot of Cl 86
4.7.5 Time series plot of CO3 86
4.7.6 Time series plot of DO 86
4.7.7 Time series plot of Fe 86
4.7.8 Time series plot of Total Hardness 86
4.7.9 Time series plot of K 87
4.7.10 Time series plot of Na 87

xvi
[Link]. Fig. Description Page No.
4.7.11 Time series plot of NH3 87
4.7.12 Time series plot of Othophosphate 87
4.7.13 Time series plot of pH 87
4.7.14 Time series plot of SAR 87
4.7.15 Time series plot of Total Alkalinity 88
4.7.16 Time series plot of NO3 88
4.7.17 Time series plot of Ca 88
4.7.18 Time series plot of Biochemical Oxygen Demand 89
4.7.19 Time series plot of DO 89
4.7.20 Time series plot of pH 89
4.7.21 Time series plot of total coliform 90
4.8.1 Hydrologic Cycle diagram for simulation period from 99
01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
4.8.2 Hydrologic Cycle diagram for simulation period from 100
01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050
4.8.3 Sen’s slope for time period wise precipitation time series 107
4.8.4 Sen’s slope for single set of historical and projected precipitation 107
time series
4.8.5 Sen’s slope for decade wise precipitation time series of CORDEX
Data 108
4.8.6 Trends of Sen’s slope on data frequency and type for historical
data of 1951-2005 period 108
4.8.7 Trends of Sen’s slope on data frequency and type for RCP 4.5
scenario projected data 109
4.8.8 Trend Indicator Plot of Historical Precipitation Data of 110
1951-2005 time period
4.8.9 Trend Indicator Plot of RCP 4.5 Scenario Precipitation Data of
2006-2099 time period 111
4.8.10 Trend Indicator Plot of RCP 8.5 Scenario Precipitation Data of
2006-2099 time period 112
4.8.11 Trend Indicator Plot of fitted Historical Precipitation Data of
1951-2005 time period from Wavelet-ANN hybrid model 113
4.8.12 Extrme Temperatures and Temperature Time Series plots 117
4.8.13 Sen’s slope for Max. Temperature 117
4.8.14 Sen’s slope for Min. Temperature 117
3
4.9.1 Peak Runoff, m /s - Observed Vs Simulated for calibration 125

xvii
[Link]. Fig. Description Page No.
period from 01-Jan-1979 to 31-Dec-1981
4.9.2 Peak Runoff, m3/s - Observed Vs Simulated for Period of 126
Simulation from 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
4.9.3 Peak Runoff, m3/s - Observed Vs Simulated for Period of 127
Simulation from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050
4.9.4 Hydrologic cycle diagram with revised curve number 98 for 128
period from 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
4.9.5 Hydrologic cycle diagram with revised curve number 98 for 129
period from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050

4.9.6 Sub-basin wise Total Runoff, mm - Observed Vs 132

SWMM Simulated
4.9.7 Sub-basin wise Peak Runoff, m3/s - Observed Vs 133
SWMM Simulated

xviii
 CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION

Stormwater management for an urban area is one of the various aspects involved in
Urban Water Management. For effective and efficient stormwater management, there are
various measures and practices being followed around the world. The present study reviews
state of the art in stormwater management methodologies being adopted, analysis of results
and/or outcomes of each of the schemes for integrated stormwater management, specifies
critical remarks and expresses views on future research needs in stormwater management as
an integrated part of urban water management.
Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (Fryd et al., 2010; Zhou, 2014; Ellis and Lundy, 2016;
and Lim and Lu, 2016; Arturo Casal, 2018; Arahuetes et al., 2019; Altobelli et al., 2020;
Kändler et al., 2020; Lin et al., 2020; Soon Ho Kwon et al., 2020, and Hager et al., 2021),
Low Impact Development and Best Management Practices (Strecker et al., 2001; Dietz,
2007; Motsinger et al., 2016; Mani et al., 2019; Nowogoński, 2020; Men et al., 2020; Song et
al., 2020; Zhang et al., 2020; and Khurelbaatar et al., 2021), Water Sensitive Urban Design
(Beecham and Razzaghmanesh, 2015, Ahmed et al., 2019; Lariyah et al., 2011; Marino et al.,
2018; Siekmann and Siekmann, 2015) and Sponge city programmes (Wang et al. 2018) are
few of the stormwater management schemes which are being adopted in different countries.
Stormwater management is becoming a challenge in various stages of its
implementation starting from the planning stage, due to expansion of the urban area, change
in existing soil permeability characteristics by more and more construction activities,
decrease in vegetation, climate change, change in rainfall and subsequent runoff patterns.
Motivation of the study:
There is a need to review present measures and practices of stormwater management.
Further, there is a need to study the implications of urban hydrology, climate change, water
quality on stormwater and the reuse of stormwater for its efficient management in urban
environments. Thus, there is a need to study and propose sustainable and resilient integrated
stormwater management in urban areas. Hence, the present study has undertaken with an aim
to study and propose sustainable and resilient integrated stormwater management for
proposed Amaravati city of Andhra Pradesh state, India.
Objectives of the present Ph D study:
• To develop a sustainable and resilient stormwater drainage system for urban areas
• To study the impact of urbanization on storm water runoff
• To study the impact of climate change on urban storm water
• To study the impact of water quality on receiving waters
1
 • To study the reuse of storm water
Government of India has initiated to develop number of smart cities in India. Development of
existing or proposed city as smart city needs all effective and efficient infrastructure to
transform as smart city. In the context of water infrastructure, especially stormwater
infrastructure needs to be efficient in terms of drainage and management to become part of
smart city and to perform as water sensitive city. As each city during various phases of
development converts more area into impervious by modifying more area into paved, which
results in more runoff especially surface runoff. Thus, management of stormwater in urban
areas is becoming a challenge nowadays. Stormwater management in terms of runoff
attenuation would become a solution to the transformation of more urban area into
impervious.
As the present study is an integrated study on urban stormwater management, the study is
divided into different modelling studies and results are integrated wherever necessary and
finally reuse options as an efficient stormwater management has carried and results are
presented with various integrated options. SWAT is used for hydrological modelling,
StormCAD is applied for stormwater network model as a underground drainage system.
SWMM is used to determine performance of various LID and BMP options for efficient
stormwater management. As the present study is aimed to determine sustainable and resilient
integrated urban stormwater management, the use of SWAT, StormCAD and SWMM are
very much necessary to apply separately.
Characteristics of hydrological parameters such as precipitation, evaporation, infiltration and
runoff including hydrologic cycle diagram with actual data for the period of simulation from
01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014 and with projected data for the period of simulation from 01-
Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050 is determined using SWAT software.
Assessment of climate change impact on precipitation and temperature are performed on the
considered study area i.e. proposed Amaravati city of Andhra Pradesh state, India. For this
climate change effect study, modified Mann-Kendall test, and Sen‟s slope estimator are
applied with R-programming as a tool for trend analysis.
Trend analysis of groundwater levels and quality is carried using Mann-Kendall trend test and
Sen‟s slope estimator and R programming. When the data is serially correlated or
autocorrelated, modified versions of Mann-Kendall test are applied to assess trends of given
data. Also, the trend analysis of various surface water quality parameters is done to find the
impacts of urbanization on receiving waters i.e. Krishna river in the proximity. The trend
analysis of water quality is also performed using Mann-Kendall trend test and modified
versions of Mann-Kendall test, Sen‟s slope estimator to find magnitude of trend, and R
programming.
2
 A network of stormwater to carry peak runoff with a return period of 5 years as per manual
on stormwater drainage systems, CPHEEO (2019) is developed using BENTLEY StormCAD
software. Various design parameters are adopted from CPHEEO (2019) and CPHEEO (2013)
manuals. Stormwater network system is proposed as an underground gravity flow system.
Section(s) of the conduit for the network is considered as RCC rectangular box section.
For efficient stormwater management, various Low Impact Development (LID) practices are
being considered as a paramount option for sustainable and resilient urban drainage systems
in various countries.
Various options for reuse of available stormwater are analyzed. To develop sustainable and
resilient integrated stormwater management system for the proposed Amaravati city, the
options proposed for implementation are a. canal system b. LID controls with BMP practices
c. combination of canal system and LID controls. These recommended options will enhance
the integrated stormwater management for the proposed Amaravati city to affirm as a water
sensitive city for longer duration.
1.1 Study Area
Amaravati city of newly formed Andhra Pradesh state, India was chosen as the study area.
Amaravati city is located on the bank of Krishna river in Guntur district. Proposed Amaravati
city area is 217.50 km2 and is located at 16.510 N latitude and 80.520 E longitude. The city
area is proposed to make up from agricultural lands from 29 number of existing villages
belong to various mandals of Guntur district. This proposed Amaravati city has been
envisaged to be the pioneer among various Smart Cities of India and to be efficient water
sensitive city for number of decades [Fig.1.1].
Study area map i.e. detailed master plan of Amaravati city is being considered for this
research study as provided / available from AP CRDA/AMRDA web portal. This study area
master plan map is presented below for ready reference.

3
Fig. 1.1: Detailed master plan of Amaravati city
(Source: AP CRDA/AMRDA)

4
 Chapter 2
Literature Review
As discussed in introduction chapter, there are various measures and practices being adapted
in various parts of the world for sustainable and resilient integrated urban stormwater
management. They are SUDS [Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems], WSUD [Water
Sensitive Urban Design], LID [Low Impact Development], BMP [Best Management
Practices], and SCP [Sponge City Programme].
SUDS, WSUD and LID concepts are having related aims such as managing the urban water
with sustainable approach, preserving the flow conditions close to the nature, maintaining the
water quality and that of receiving waters, and conserving water resources in totality [Fletcher
et al. (2013)]. BMP [Best Management Practices] covers practices that contain non-structural
(procedural or operational) and structural (engineered or built infrastructure) characteristics
[Fletcher et al. (2015)].
Water sensitive city consists of a framework considering a city as a water supply source at
varied scales, urban water system to improve and support nature in proximity and
communities with vital decision makers on water sensitive aspects [Marino et al. (2018)].
Urban resilience is an adaptive process for the society to learn in an unremitting manner to
manage with varying socioeconomic situations, land use of urban and climate change
[Sörensen et al. (2016)].
Sponge City Programme (SCP) is meant to enhance urban water resilience due to growth and
climate change with the key goals such as mitigation of waterlogging and floods, enhance
quality of water, refurbish the water‟s role on ecology, use of rainwater as a resource and
improving the microclimate of urban environments [Hao et al. (2018)].
Following are various reviews of literature to date on different facets of the present study.
2.1. Low Impact Development (LID) and Best Management Practices (BMP)
LID refers to the principles, techniques and practices which are used to make certain urban
activities do not damage or obliterate natural processes and resources.
LID and LIUDD [Low-Impact Urban Design and Development] are methods to urban
development that use different urban planning and design policies and strategies to conserve
natural resource systems and decrease infrastructure costs and further permit cities to be
developed, but in a cost-effective approach that facilitates alleviation of potential
environmental impacts [Montazerolhodjah (2019)].
A few problems associated with various BMPs and their effectiveness were studied by
Strecker et al. (2001). The application of the log transformation of event mean concentrations
(EMCs) was recommended [Strecker et al. (2001)]. Appraisal of the current condition and
upcoming research needs of LID investigations and practices were performed by Dietz
5
(2007). Effectiveness of pervious pavements and bioretention especially in cold climates was
demonstrated by Dietz (2007). Limitations of the LID practices such as high contaminant
loading areas, steep slopes, rock depth, water table rise were discussed [Dietz (2007)].
Association of bioretention with hydrologic, water quality and environmental issues were
highlighted [Davis et al. (2009)]. Implementation of various BMPs on water quality was
examined [Motsinger et al. (2016)]. SWMM integrated with the multi-objective antlion
optimization algorithm (MOALOA) was applied for recognition of LID stormwater control
measures (SCMs) for runoff control and flood mitigation [Mani et al. (2019)]. LID with
SWMM was used to reduce imperviousness of catchment by adapting rain barrels, permeable
walkways or bio-retention reservoirs [Nowogoński (2020)]. A novel method for integrating
SWMM and preference-inspired co-evolutionary algorithm using goal vectors (PICEA-g)
was studied for LID in the Sponge city [Men et al. (2020)]. A reliability evaluation technique
of LID was examined and recommended to assess the performance of existing systems for
flood disasters using the distance measure method [Song et al. (2020)]. A method using
SWMM was developed to assess stormwater control with an interdisciplinary criterion for
adoption of LID [Zhang et al. (2020)]. A novel approach to assess the capacity of urban
stormwater management at block-level (MUST-B) using LIDs was described for prevailing
areas [Khurelbaatar et al. (2021)].
However, the application of various LID and BMPs for holistic urban stormwater
management needs to be studied in much detail with advanced and/or novel approaches to
improve stormwater system performance with regard to sustainable and/or resilient measures
and/or practices.
2.2. Hydrological aspects of climate change, urbanization, and resilience
The impending effects of climate change and continued urbanization on the waste and
stormwater flows in the combined sewer were evaluated [Davies et al. (2008)]. Various land
use and climate change scenarios impacts on flows of the river were studied [Wang et al.
(2008)]. Historical trends and climate change projections on regional hydrology were
compared [Wilby et al. (2008)]. The effect of spatial resolution on various regional scale land
use scenarios to study the hydrology was attempted [Bormann et al. (2009)]. Application of
SWAT [Soil And Water Assessment Tool] to study river watershed hydrology during
monsoon and non-monsoon period was carried for projected parameters assessment [Dhar
and Mazumdar (2009)]. The likely impacts of flooding and combined sewer overflow (CSO)
with present and future climate change scenarios were studied [Nie et al. (2009)]. Increase of
runoff observed with 60% of the rangeland removal while for groundwater, this limit was at
80% reduction in rangeland [Ghaffari et al. (2010)]. Climate change related challenges of
stormwater management are more significant than those by land development [Hirschman et
6
al. (2011)]. Improved resiliency of LID practices to climate change impacts was exhibited by
reducing runoff through infiltration and resulting in groundwater recharge [Hirschman et al.
(2011)]. The effects of global and local climate change on urban flooding were studied using
urban growth model, the atmospheric model and the urban flood model [Huong and Pathirana
(2011)]. The impacts of climate change on river basin hydrology were assessed as vital on an
annual scale using SWAT [Singh and Gosain (2011), Dessu and Melesse (2012), Ficklin et
al. (2013), and Dubey et al. (2020)]. Application of SWAT to determine streamflow with
various LU (Land Use) and meteorological data was carried [Dixon and Earls (2012)]. A
three-step preparedness program for extremes that includes Preparation (vulnerability and risk
identification, adaptive capacity building, and monitoring), Response (information
dissemination and relief action) and Recovery was recommended for management of rainfall
extremes [Chang and Irvine (2014)]. The adaptation to climate change by urban drainage was
examined using downscaled RCM (Regional Climate Model) and RCP (Representative
Concentration Pathway) 8.5 models and XP-SWMM [Kang et al. (2016)]. An enhanced pipe
capacity may cater increased urban flooding as an adaptation measure/practice to climate
change [Kang et al. (2016)]. Significance of remote sensing and GIS [Geographical
Information System] for stormwater management with regard to optimal surface runoff
design considering extreme events and climate change impacts was assessed [Saraswat et al.
(2016)] for Tokyo, Hanoi, and Bangkok cities as case studies. The effects of urbanization on
hydrology of the river basin were examined as trend analysis of various parameters for
different precipitation conditions [Zang et al. (2019)].
However, there is a need to study the impacts of climate change and urbanization on regional
hydrology in much more detail with more accurate and relevant data to local scale even after
downscaling. Further, the stormwater management has to be studied for sustainable and
resilient measures and practices to accommodate extreme events and for combined effects.
The application of integrated models for climate change impact assessment, varying land use,
urban floods and on entire urban hydrology needs to be highlighted for urban stormwater
management to be efficient.
2.3. Hydrological – Water quantity and quality aspects
Urban water balance was studied for various supply and demand scenarios [Van Rooijen et
al. (2005)]. Green roof system effectiveness for stormwater management as a quantitative
analysis was carried [Teemusk and Mander (2007) and Lee et al. (2013)]. Various constraints
to attain sustainable urban stormwater management were described [Roy et al. (2008)]. The
impacts of impervious pattern on urban hydrology were examined [Mejia and Moglen
(2010)]. State of the art of modelling aspects of urban stormwater management including
water quality was reviewed [Fletcher et al. (2013)]. Stormwater infiltration source-control
7
technologies were applied to study impacts of urbanization on baseflow variations [Hamel et
al. (2013)]. The need for integrated planning of urban river corridor management was
emphasized considering groundwater and water quality as well for sustainable solutions for
stormwater management [Costa et al. (2015)]. The role of selection of high intensity - short
duration events for stormwater treatment design was recommended [Liu et al. (2016)]. Risk
based integrated stormwater management model was applied to qualitatively and
quantitatively assess the inundation risks in urban drainage systems [Zhu et al. (2016)]. A
two-dimensional hydraulic model was utilized to find stream hydraulic response for
examining benefits of SCM applications [Anim et al. (2019)]. A method using SWMM was
developed to assess stormwater control for runoff volume with an interdisciplinary criterion
for adoption of LID to execute a Sponge City approach [Zhang et al. (2020)].
Modelling flows below and close to ground surface still remains a complex phenomenon and
the accurate assessment of subsurface flows needs to be studied in much detail. However,
further, there is a need to study integrated stormwater management with holistic models for
quantitative and qualitative analysis of urban hydrology in much detail.
Table 2.1 presents review of research on various aspects of integrated stormwater

management with applications used and outcomes.

Table 2.1 Review of research on integrated stormwater management

Reference Year Main Aspect Other Aspects Applicatio Findings

n
Khurelbaata 2021 LID MUST- B Capacity of urban
r et al. stormwater
management
Dubey et al. 2020 Hydrology Climate SWAT Water Yield,
Change Evapotranspiratio
n
Men et al. 2020 Low Impact Preference- SWMM LIDs for Sponge
Development inspired co- City
[LID] evolutionary
algorithm using
goal vectors
[PICEA-g]
Nowogońsk 2020 Low Impact SWMM LIDs for
i Development imperviousness
[LID] reduction
Song et al. 2020 Low Impact Reliability Performance of
Development evaluation existing systems
[LID] technique for flood disasters
Zhang et al. 2020 LID Interdisciplinar SWMM Assessment of
y criterion stormwater
control for runoff
volume
Anim et al. 2019 Stream Hydraulics 2D Benefits of
8
 Table 2.1 Review of research on integrated stormwater management (Continued)
Hydraulics Stormwater
Model Control Measures
[SCMs]
Zang et al. 2019 Hydrology Land Use SWAT Daily flood peak
and annual runoff
Mani et al. 2019 Hydrology Flood SWMM, LID Stormwater
Mitigation MOALOA Control Measures
[SCMs]
Motsinger 2016 Best Management Water quality Impact of various
et al. Practice [BMP] BMPs
implementation
Kang et al. 2016 Urban drainage Climate XP- Climate Change
Change SWMM
Saraswat et 2016 Hydrology Climate Runoff
al. Change
Liu et al. 2016 Hydrology Water quality Runoff
Zhu et al. 2016 Hydrology Water quality Projection Flooding risks
pursuit
method,
ordinary
Kriging
method
Costa et al. 2015 Hydrology Water quality MT3DMS IU river corridor
management
Chang and 2014 Rainfall Extremes Floods and
Irvine droughts
Teemusk 2007 Hydrology Green roof Runoff
and Mander ,
and Lee et 2013
al.
Ficklin et 2013 Hydrology Sedimentation SWAT BMP
al.
Fletcher et 2013 Hydrology Water quality ISWM
al.
Hamel et al. 2013 Hydrology Urbanization Baseflow
Dessu and 2012 Hydrology SWAT Rainfall-Runoff
Melesse Simulation
Dixon and 2012 Hydrology Land Use SWAT Hydrographs
Earls
Hirschman 2011 Hydrology Climate Stormwater
et al. Change Management
Huong and 2011 Flooding Climate EPA- Runoff
Pathirana Change SWMM 5
with Brezo
Singh and 2011 Hydrology Climate SWAT Climate Change
Gosain Change
Ghaffari et 2010 Hydrology Land Use SWAT Runoff
al.
Mejia and 2010 Hydrology Hydrographs Impervious
Moglen pattern
Davis et al. 2009 Bioretention Hydrologic, State of
water quality contemporary
and acquaintance of
9
 Table 2.1 Review of research on integrated stormwater management (Continued)

environmental bioretention
issues
Bormann et 2009 Hydrology Land Use SWAT and Land Use
al. TOPLATS scenarios
Dhar and 2009 Hydrology SWAT Assessment of
Mazumdar projected
parameters for
farming
operations
Nie et al. 2009 Flooding Climate MOUSE Precipitation
Change
Davies et al. 2008 climate change MOUSE Sustainable Urban
and urbanization (MOdel of Drainage Systems
Urban [SUDS]
SEwers)
Wang et al. 2008 Hydrology Climate SWAT Runoff
Change and
Land Use
Wilby et al. 2008 Hydrology Climate Flood frequency
Change
Roy et al. 2008 Stormwater Sustainable
Management Stormwater
Management
Dietz 2007 Low Impact Review of the
Development[LID current condition
] and research
needs of LID
Van 2005 Hydrology Water supply, VENSIM Water balance
Rooijen et Irrigation
al.
Strecker et 2001 Best Management BMP efficiency,
al. Practice [BMP] statistical
significance

2.4. Urban Water and Resilience Management

Various practices and strategies being adopted for successful water management were
analyzed [Tortajada (2006)]. The application of a framework method was investigated that
rationally joins high-level goals with reckonable indicators [Gabe et al. (2009)]. Indicators
identified by two radically diverse approaches were a top-down “planner‟s approach” and a
bottom-up “community approach” for urban development and IUWM (Integrated Urban
Water Management) [Gabe et al. (2009)]. A step-wise approach for designing adaptive
systems to urban water resilience was proposed [Buurman and Babovic (2015)]. The
approach identified that many investments in adaptation to climate change are not „now-or-
never‟ investments, but rather that the flexibility often exists to expand, contract, or otherwise
modify such investments. Also, the approach recognized that adaptation investments are
rarely 'all-or-nothing' investments, but instead were choices along with the continuation of
costs, risks, and benefits [Buurman and Babovic (2015)]. Potential landscape thresholds that
10
shown sudden amends in water quality were investigated [Li et al. (2016)]. The concept of
urban flood resilience into a context of sustainability and risk management was introduced
[Sörensen et al. (2016)]. It was found that those parts at which a latest approach provides to
manage with varying risks and increase urban resilience with integrated flood management
[Sörensen et al. (2016)]. A new approach was applied for integrated urban water management
(IUWM) called the “Sponge City” [Hao et al. (2018)].
However, there is a gap in studies on urban water management specifically stormwater
management considering integrated models for thorough prediction of future urban
hydrology.
2.5. Water quality aspects
The quantitative and qualitative aspects of storm runoff from the urbanised catchment were
studied [Cheong (1991), Chui (1997)]. The relationship between water quality and urban
form was found using univariate and multivariate statistical analysis [Goonetilleke et al.
(2005)]. Stormwater treatment and recycling practices were reviewed [Hatt et al. (2006)]. The
preliminary steps in refining biofilters for stormwater reuse were presented [Hatt et al.
(2007)]. Urban stormwater quality improvement methods by applying fundamental principles
were described [Davis et al. (2010)]. A study to improve the quantification of a threshold
between urbanization and water quality was conducted [Liu et al. (2013)]. Green roof system
performance was evaluated experimentally with regard to water quantity and quality
perspective [Beecham and Razzaghmanesh (2015)]. Regionalization of runoff control factors,
concentrations and treatment was studied and identified as part of stormwater BMPs [Bell et
al. (2020)]. Chloride retention quantification and release in SWMPs [stormwater
management ponds] was investigated in urban environments by applying a mass balance
approach [Lam et al. (2020)]. Various vital aspects and principles for application of low-cost
adsorbents to treat urban stormwater were presented [Deng (2020)].
However, there is a continuing knowledge gap on developing tools for realistic assessment of
the impacts of water quality on the receiving waters which can further effect urban
stormwater management. Also, trend analysis of parameters associated with water quality due
to continued urbanization has not been carried in much detail. Further, integrated modelling
approach has not been applied for urban water quality management due to continued
urbanization, climate change, and land use changes.
2.6. Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SuDS/SUDS)
Application of SUDS for improvement of the planning and decision making processes was
carried [Fryd et al. (2010)]. An overview of the status and emerging studies of sustainable
drainage was presented [Zhou (2014)]. Some of the issues to the practice of SUDS were
examined [Ellis and Lundy (2016)]. Singapore‟s ABC (Active Beautiful Clean) Waters
11
program was evaluated [Lim and Lu (2016)]. Key perceptions i.e. reliability, resilience and
sustainability of urban drainage systems were defined and quantified to analyze its robustness
under deep uncertainty for numerous gray, green and hybrid approaches to enhance system
capacity [Arturo Casal (2018)]. The effectiveness of sustainable urban drainage systems
(SuDS) was examined for climate change adaptations [Arahuetes et al. (2019)]. The
integrated application of real-time control and green technologies to urban drainage systems
was examined for optimal management [Altobelli et al. (2020)]. Efficacy of novel real time
controlled actuators application was developed and determined to assess precipitation
variations as a smart in-line storage system [Kändler et al. (2020)]. A framework for UDS
[urban drainage systems] design was suggested to enhance its optimization efficiency with
regard to solution practicality [Lin et al. (2020)]. A two-phase multi-scenario approach was
developed for urban drainage systems planning and assessed scenario-optimal solutions
[Soon Ho Kwon et al. (2020)]. An integrated framework was proposed as decision support
system for urban stormwater at community level [Hager et al. (2021)]. The developed
framework finds most fitting strategies of LID, conventional infrastructure and stormwater
reuse methods with incorporation of stochastic concepts, climate change impacts and fuzzy
clustering analysis by applying the One Water approach [Hager et al. (2021)].
However, there is a gap in practice of SUDS operation and maintenance, awareness of
interface with other water bodies, and interpretation of organizational obstacles towards
SUDS implementations. Thus, there is a need to study on SUDS with regard to execution as
an integrated modelling approach for urban stormwater management in much detail and
finding mechanisms for overcoming barriers associated with.
Table 2.2 summarizes review of research on various management aspects/practices for

integrated urban water including stormwater management.

Table 2.2 Review of Research on various Water Management and other Aspects/Practices

Reference Year Aspects studied Findings/outcomes

Hager et al. 2021 Integrated Decision Support System for
framework urban stormwater
Altobelli et al. 2020 Optimal Real-time control and green
management of technologies
urban drainage
systems [UDS]
Bell et al. 2020 BMPs Runoff Control Factors
Deng 2020 Low-cost Treatment of urban stormwater
adsorbents
Kändler et al. 2020 Smart in-line Real time controlled actuators
storage system
Lin et al. 2020 Framework for Enhancement of optimization
UDS [urban efficiency of UDS

12
Table 2.2 Review of Research on various Water Management and other Aspects/Practices (Continued)

drainage systems]
design
Lam et al. 2020 SWMPs Chloride retention
[Stormwater quantification and release
management
ponds]
Soon Ho Kwon et al. 2020 UDS [urban A two-phase multi-scenario
drainage systems] approach
Zabłocka and 2020 Sustainable SWM Retention Tank
Capodaglio
Arahuetes et al. 2019 SuDS Climate Change Adaptations
Arturo Casal 2018 UDS capacity Key perceptions of UDS
Hao et al. 2018 IUWM Review of Sponge City
Li et al. 2016 Water quality and Landscape thresholds
Land Use
Sörensen et al. 2016 Urban resilience Urban flood resilience
with integrated
flood management
Ellis and Lundy 2016 SUDS Practices examination
Lim and Lu 2016 Small-scale Evaluation of Singapore‟s ABC
distributed LID Waters Program
features
Buurman and 2015 A step-wise Urban water resilience
Babovic approach for
designing adaptive
systems
Beecham and 2015 Water quantity and Green Roof systems
Razzaghmanesh quality
Zhou 2014 SUDS emerging studies
Liu et al. 2013 Water quality,
The threshold between
Urbanization Impervious surface area [ISA]
and the chemical indicators of
water quality
Davis et al. 2010 Water quality Urban stormwater quality
improvement methods
Fryd et al. 2010 Sustainable Urban Planning and decision making
Drainage Systems processes
(SUDS)

Gabe et al. 2009 A top-down IUWM (Integrated Urban

“planner‟s Water Management)
approach” and a
bottom-up
“community
approach
Hatt et al. 2007 Water quality Biofilters
Tortajada 2006 Water Need for implementing latest
Management technologies, efficient use of
practices and limited water resources, proper
strategies watershed management,
practicing water conservation
measures
Hatt et al. 2006 Water quality Treatment methods for
13
Table 2.2 Review of Research on various Water Management and other Aspects/Practices (Continued)

stormwater pollution control

Goonetilleke et al. 2005 Water quality Relationships between water
quality and urban form
Chui 1997 Water quality Runoff
Cheong 1991 Water quality Runoff

2.7 Reuse and treatment with management aspects

Urban stormwater reuse is one of the most significant methods to alleviate scarcity of water
resources. The need for stormwater reuse has been progressing vital as increase of population
predominant which is developing more water stress. Stormwater reuse can also reduce
degradation of urban water since the decrease of volume of urban stormwater discharge
follows. However, at present an important impediment to extensive execution of stormwater
reuse is lack of techniques and approaches that can afford water for various requirements
such as irrigation, gardening, commercial and industrial activities.
There have been numerous research studies outlining various stormwater reuse schemes for
sustainable and/or resilient urban stormwater management including WSUD [Water Sensitive
Urban Design] [Wada et al. (2002), Muirhead (2008), Gatt and Farrugia (2012), Lloyd et al.
(2012), Kinkade (2013), Wu et al.(2014), Huang and Zhou (2014), Jonasson et al. (2016),
Ahammed (2017), Jahanbakhsh (2017), Palazzo (2018), Deitch and Feirer (2019),
Charalambous et al. (2019), Day and Sharma (2020), Shafiquzzaman et al. (2020), Oliveri et
al. (2020)].
Various measures and framework were recommended by Ellis et al. (2008), Coutts et al.
(2010), Saraswat et al. (2016), Webber et al. (2018), Mishra and Arya (2020), B. K. Mishra et
al., (2020) for urban stormwater management considering various scenarios with climate
change effect. Need for multicriterion stormwater management policies and methods as
solutions for flooding, erosion and water quality was highlighted [McCuen and Moglen
(1988)]. Various source control techniques for stormwater management were presented
[Chouli (2006)]. The bulk sediment reuse after the treatment was examined [P´etavy et al.
(2007)]. LID [Low Impact Development] techniques were found as efficient in attenuating
the adverse effects of the hydrology due to any type of urbanization [Zimmer et al. (2007)].
Various stormwater controls were presented for integrated and sustainable stormwater
management as solutions to problems associated with high pollutant concentrations or
frequent high flows [Pitt and Clark (2008)]. The novel numerous opportunities were
recognized for reuse and treatment of stormwater [Madison and Emond (2008)]. A novel
stormwater quality improvement mechanism, called the "Green Gully" that collects, purifies,
and reuses stormwater throughout an automated system was studied and presented [Begum
and Rasul (2009)]. Porous and permeable pavements utilization for stormwater reuse through

14
experimental procedure was described and further application of PERMPAVE software
[Beecham et al. (2010)]. Performance of various water quality parameters were assessed such
as biochemical oxygen demand, total coliform etc before and after treatment [Maharaj and
Scholz (2010)]. Multicriterion optimisation was applied to spot Pareto optimal solutions for
collecting, storing and treating stormwater to potable requirements to allow use for the
potable distribution network [McArdle et al. (2010)]. Examination of overall performance of
WSUD for high intensity rainfall scenario was done [Lariyah et al. (2011)]. Potable water
savings of up to 36% of the annual average household potable water demand due to
stormwater reuse was determined [Jenkins et al. (2012)]. The rational method for stormwater
advanced design methods was evaluated [Coombes et al. (2015)]. Effect of permeable
pavement basecourse aggregates on stormwater quality for irrigation reuse was studied
[Kazemi and Hill (2015)]. More flexibility and higher adaptation capacity of decentralized
facilities were established for WSUD with climate change effects [Siekmann and Siekmann
(2015)]. Treatment of N-nitrosomorpholine (NMOR) for potable reuse was demonstrated
[Glover et al. (2016)]. E²STORMED, decision support tool with energetic and environmental
criteria was developed for analysis on stormwater management impacts on urban
environment [Torres et al. (2016)]. Key obstacles were recognized to stormwater reuse, the
complexities in eliminating them in urban environments and the approaches to overcome the
barriers [Managi et al. (2017), Gogate and Raval (2015), Maneewan and Roon (2017), and
Muirhead (2008)]. Functioning of rain gardens for sustainable stormwater management was
described [Ishimatsu et al. (2017)]. BMPs effectiveness for reuse of stormwater was reviewed
[Ding (2017)]. Risk management, financial appraisal and funding criteria for stormwater
reuse were proposed for comparison and prioritization of upcoming reuse projects [Furlong et
al. (2017)]. Application of integrated SDSS [Spatial Decision Support Systems] for runoff
reduction was studied [Iana et al. (2018)]. The participatory approach with the application of
Water Sensitive Design Framework for Green-Blue Infrastructure was presented [Marino et
al. (2018)]. Optimization of Green Stormwater Infrastructure [GSI] projects for stormwater
reuse after treatment with the management systems such as catch basins, dry well chambers,
wet lands, cisterns, permeable surfaces, rain gardens and bioswales was performed [Sadeghi
et al. (2018)]. Water Sensitive Urban Design [WSUD] and Best Management Practices
[BMP] effectiveness and efficiency for removal of fecal indicators and pathogens were
reviewed [Ahmed et al. (2019)]. Various evaluation methods for finding efficiency of
different risk assessments with stormwater reuse for various purposes were appraised.
[Ahmed et al. (2019)]. Low-impact development (LID) and low-impact urban design and
development (LIUDD) for designing tools and processes were reviewed [Montazerolhodjah
(2019)]. Application of a framework for strategic surface water management monitoring to
15
augment decision support in cities was developed [Webber et al. (2019)]. RTC [Real Time
Control] strategies were developed with validation of biofilters for efficient water quality for
harvesting and reuse through long term experimentation and found that nutrient and sediment
removal was high with RTC [Shen et al. (2019)]. The potential application of biofilters to
greywater treatment and reuse was found [Jung et al. (2019) and Hatt et al. (2007)].
Stormwater resilience concept application for sustainable stormwater management was
presented [Wang and Roon (2020) and Rodina (2019)]. Application of different sorbents
with varied concentrations for efficient urban stormwater quality management has
experimented [Valentukevičienė et al. (2020)]. SWMM [Storm Water Management Model]
based method for runoff volume control and suspended solids removal was developed [Zhang
et al. (2020)]. Performance of various types of swales such as grass swales with check dams
or infiltration swales for runoff attenuation, sediment and heavy metal removal was reviewed
[Ekka et al. (2020)]. Reuse of treated wastewater from wetlands for irrigation purposes
meeting quality standards was suggested [Tuttolomondo et al. (2020)]. Various alternatives
for sustainable stormwater management were analyzed and found that the retention tank,
reducing stormwater overflows and allowing local water reuse for lawn irrigation with single
dwelling case study [Zabłocka and Capodaglio (2020)]. The effect of stormwater control
devices at catchment scale on urban stormwater was described [Rodak et al. (2020)].
Performance of various LID techniques for removal of all pollutants from atmospheric
stormwater was analyzed [Trajkovic et al. (2020)]. Vegetative swales, infiltration trenches,
rain barrels, and bio-retention cells were found as having best efficiency for management of
atmospheric stormwater [Trajkovic et al. (2020)]. The cost-effectiveness of treatment system
design for stormwater reuse was investigated and recommended that removal of organic
matter, heavy metals (especially Copper), and control of bacteria growth should be the
important treatment aspects for attenuation of toxicity [Zhan et al. (2020)]. The application of
membranes for high-quality reclaimed water with advanced technology to aid safe water
reuse was studied [Zhang et al. (2020) and Kog (2020)]. The capability of biochar for
removal of the E. [Escherichia] coli for urban stormwater quality management was evaluated
[Valenca et al. (2021)].
Table 2.3 presents review of various studies carried out on numerous stormwater reuse and

treatment measures and/or practices for efficient integrated urban stormwater management.

16
 Table 2.3 Review of Research on Stormwater Reuse and Treatment

Reference Study
Valenca et al. (2021) Capability of biochar for removal of
the E. [Escherichia] coli
Valentukevičienė et al. (2020). Zhang et al. Application of different sorbents
(2020)
Tuttolomondo et al. (2020) Reuse of treated wastewater from
wetlands
Zhang et al. (2020) Suspended solids removal
Trajkovic et al. (2020) LID techniques for removal of
pollutants
Ekka et al. (2020) Grass swales, sediment and heavy
metal removal
Zabłocka and Capodaglio (2020) Retention tank
Rodak et al. (2020) Stormwater control devices
Zhang et al. (2020) and Kog (2020) Application of membranes for high-
quality reclaimed water
Zhan et al. (2020) Cost-effectiveness of treatment
system design for stormwater reuse
Ahmed et al. (2019) Removal of fecal indicators and
pathogens
Ahmed et al. (2019) Efficiency of different risk
assessments with stormwater reuse
Montazerolhodjah (2019) Low-impact urban design and
development (LIUDD)
Shen et al. (2019) RTC [Real Time Control] strategies
for biofilters
Jung et al. (2019) and Hatt et al. (2007) Application of biofilters to
greywater treatment and reuse
Iana et al. (2018). Marino et al. (2018) Participatory approach for WSUD
Managi et al. (2017), Gogate and Raval (2015), Key obstacles to stormwater reuse
Maneewan and Roon (2017), and Muirhead
(2008)
Ishimatsu et al. (2017) Rain gardens
Ding (2017) BMPs effectiveness for reuse of
stormwater
Glover et al. (2016) Treatment of N-nitrosomorpholine
(NMOR) for potable reuse
Kazemi and Hill (2015) Permeable pavement basecourse
aggregates
Lariyah et al. (2011) Overall performance of WSUD
Maharaj and Scholz (2010) Biochemical oxygen demand, total
coliform
Begum and Rasul (2009) Green Gully
P´etavy et al. (2007) Bulk sediment re-use after the
treatment
Chouli (2006) Source control techniques

Figs. 2.1 and 2.2 present and describe integrated urban stormwater management process
which needs to be adapted with real time governance. Various drivers such as climate change
17
impact assessment, water quality, reuse and treatment are to be taken into account for
efficient and optimal outcomes.

Urban Hydrology
Characteristics Study

Climate Change
Impact Assessment

Water Quantity
Determination

Water Quality
Determination

Fig. 2.1 Flow Chart of urban hydrology characteristics study

Water Quantity
Determination

Water Quality
Determination

Yes No
Fit for Use Treatment
Reuse

Exceedance of
Peak Flows

Adapt sustainable
Yes No Discharge to
and/or resilient measures
nearby water bodies
and/or practices such as
LID, BMP, WSUD,
SUDS, and SCP

Fig. 2.2 Process diagram of integrated urban stormwater management

18
Table 2.4 describes various key drivers of integrated urban stormwater management to
develop as efficient, sustainable and resilient.
Table 2.4 Key drivers of integrated urban stormwater management

Key driver Characteristics

Data Data needs to be available for the period of model development at

regular and continuous interval. Also, data is to be reliable, accurate, suit

to the purpose of study both in space and time.

Model Model can be developed on the intent of the study as quantitative and

development qualitative. Also, model can be prepared as conceptual, detailed,

deterministic and stochastic considering various other influencing

parameters and required outcomes of the study.

Assessment of Developed model needs to be assessed with proper calibration, validation

Model and uncertainty analysis and techniques.

Process Aspects that can be ascertained from model may be of hydrology,

hydraulics, ecology, societal and economics etc. Further, each of these

aspects may be subcategorized and prioritized based on the requirements

of the study.

Monitoring and Way of implementation of developed model needs to be monitored at

Maintenance of regular intervals to check its adequacy with regard to set objectives.

System Also, periodic maintenance has to be performed with proper methods,

approaches which can make the system to serve with expected efficiency

for longer duration.

Reuse Stormwater reuse after treatment needs to be analyzed as there is

increasing water stress in urban areas.

2.8 Hydrological Modelling using SWAT

Hydrological models such as SWAT [Soil And Water Assessment Tool] and TOPLATS were
used by different researchers [Cheng et al., 2021; Busico et al., 2020; Kannan et al., 2019;

19
Wang et al., 2008; Bormann et al., 2009; Dhar and Mazumdar, 2009; Ghaffari et al., 2010;
Shawul et al., 2013; Arnold et al., 2012] to understand the runoff patterns in spatial
distribution of land use, land cover and precipitation characteristics. Runoff of the mountain
reaches of the catchment increased when the grassland area increased and forestland
decreased. The simulated runoff increased with increased precipitation, but increase in the
mean temperature decreased the runoff under the same precipitation condition. The effect of
spatial resolution and distribution of model input data on the results of regional-scale land use
scenarios using three different hydrological catchment models were analyzed. It was found
that in case of spatial distribution, SWAT and TOPLATS (TOPMODEL based atmosphere
transfer scheme) were slightly sensitive to a redistribution of land use (below 1.5% for water
balance terms), whereas WASIM (WASIM is a process-based and grid-based hydrological
catchment model) shown almost no reaction. Transmission losses, soil water content,
potential evapotranspiration, evapotranspiration, and lateral flow to reach, had shown an
increasing trend [Dhar and Mazumdar, 2009].
Simulation of the water balance was made with SWAT tool. Increase of the runoff was found
with removal of more than 60% of the rangeland. For groundwater, the threshold was at an
80% decrease in rangeland. [Ghaffari et al., 2010]. Hydrological processes become
significant during wet conditions rather than those found during dry conditions [Rahbeh et
al., 2011].
An escalation of the hydrological cycle in the prospect climate change scenario that emerges
to be vital on an annual basis for Cauvery river basin using a SWAT model [Singh and
Gosain, 2011]. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE] and coefficient of determination [R2] are
being used for calibration and validation of long term rainfall simulation of river basin using
SWAT [Dessu and Melesse, 2012]. SWAT model is being applied to envisage streamflow
with varying LU (Land Use) and weather data to forecast hydrographs for expected LU
[Dixon and Earls, 2012]. SWAT model-analyzed hydrographs are responsive to the weather
data applied. Hydrology, sediment, nitrate and pesticide transport components are assessed
for watershed using the SWAT [Ficklin et al., 2013]. The best management practices, such as
pesticide use limits during wet seasons, might get better water quality in the river watershed.
The effect of hydrologic parameters on the streamflow variations even for a mountainous
watershed is found using a SWAT model. Various future research needs with regard to
calibration and validation methods with SWAT are specified [Shawul et al., 2013]. Dynamics
of landscape on the hydrologic regime of a river watershed are studied using SWAT
[Ramachandra et al., 2014]. The hydrologic assessment revealed that with high rainfall
towards the Ghats, the characteristics such as water holding capacity with lower runoff,
higher infiltration capacity are towards regions with good vegetation cover.
20
SWAT is applied to model flows of a huge plain river with significant snow supply [Osypov,
2018]. Spatial resolution and rainfall characteristics affect parameterization and simulation
results in urban hydrological modelling [HOU et al., 2018]. The application of spatially
explicit, field-scale SWAT model with edge-of-field and tile hydrology is performed to
determine the impacts of site-specific BMPs. It is observed that filter strips (FS) are the most
effective single BMPs for decrease of dissolved reactive phosphorus, and FS in general
reduces sediment and nutrient yields when included to any other BMP or BMP combination
[Merriman et al., 2018].
Calibration and validation of SWAT model in a data-scarce catchment is carried by using the
regionalization with physical similarity approach [Mengistu et al., 2019]. SWAT is applied to
better interpret significant flow processes of a catchment for prospect water management and
framework for a policy [Raihan et al., 2019]. SWAT is used with automated flow calibration
to calibrate runoff and division of runoff into surface and sub-surface flow components
[Kannan et al., 2019]. The impacts of various land cover types on urban hydrology are
examined [Kokkonen et al., 2019]. The strategies to assess the relative progress in the
evaluation of past and future flood risks and adaptation are recommended [Dhiman et al.,
2019]. Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM-ZS) algorithm is applied to find
uncertainty associated with SWAT based hydrological modelling and found that improved
efficiency in calibration and more realistic values from SWAT model after using DREAM-ZS
algorithm [Afshar, 2019]. Improved curve number [ICN] evaluation is studied in SWAT and
found that amended SWAT (SWAT-ICN) is attained better performance with regard to
modelling of various flow types [Zhang et al., 2019]. Various precipitation determination
methods in continuous, distributed urban hydrologic modelling are compared [Woodson et
al., 2019]. Efficacy of detention ponds to improve urban stormwater quantity and quality is
evaluated [Souza et al., 2019]. Assessment of variations in streamflow and baseflow with
SWAT hydrological model is carried using multiple scenarios that diversified in land use and
climate change [Aboelnour et al., 2019]. Correlation analysis is performed to recognize the
governing factor of land use variations affecting surface runoff [Hu et al., 2020].
Hydrological modelling is done using SWAT to identify and analyse the impact of
urbanization on urban hydrology [Manaschintan et al., 2020]. SWAT is applied to assess best
land use scenario for attenuation of floods in a watershed [Purwitaningsiha et al., 2020].
Significance of soil data is studied to model urban hydrology. It is found that detailed soil
information can help better simulations for less area [Tol et al., 2020]. The climatological
components are examined which influence runoff and it is found that most sensitive
parameters are wind speed and solar radiation and temperature is the least sensitive for runoff
determination [Askari et al., 2020]. Alternative SWAT-based models are applied to model
21
hydrological processes of a karstic influenced watershed system [Einia et al., 2020]. SWAT is
applied to simulate streamflow with sensitivity analysis, calibration, and validation using a
sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2) method. Calibration and validation of SWAT model
indicate a good agreement between the measured and simulated streamflow data [Tufa and
Sime, 2020]. SWAT model performance is studied with various soils to compute actual and future runoff
considering future climate projections in a highly urbanized basin [ Busico et al., 2020]. SWAT is applied
to analyse execution of certain structural and non-structural measures to decrease the erosion
potential [Chakrabortty, 2020]. SWAT is used to model the impacts of various land use
scenarios [deforestation, afforestation and urbanization] on the water balance with vegetation
growth calibrated from MODIS leaf area index [LAI] data [Zhang et al., 2020]. Evaluation of
conceptual and physical rainfall-runoff models is carried and it is recommended that SWAT
model with spatial and climatic data is useful for climate change impact assessment and land
use in the basin [Jaiswal et al., 2020]. SWAT is applied to assess flows in urban
environments in wet and dry years and it is found that need for continuation of efficient
stormwater management practices to control runoff [Li and DeLiberty, 2020]. SWAT is
applied to assess impacts of climate change, land use/land cover change and other various
scenarios for hydrological modelling of streamflow [Aawar and Khare, 2020]. A multiple
objective perspective, the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation-Technique for
Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (GLUE-TOPSIS) is applied to assess
uncertainty of hydrological modelling in urban environments and observed that GLUE-
TOPSIS offers a more accurate assessment of uncertainty [Pang et al., 2020]. Developing a
combined flood modelling system is studied for the forecast of floods and further analysis is
carried to find associated hazards on urban infrastructures using HEC-RAS [Hydrologic
Engineering Center - River Analysis System] and SWAT is used for recognition of flood risk
zones and vulnerable urban infrastructures with inundation mapping [Jha and Afreen, 2020].
The potential of National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System
Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) and China Meteorological Assimilation Driving Dataset
[CMADS] is assessed for SWAT based hydrological modelling of streamflows and it is
observed that CMADS demonstrates an satisfactory performance in SWAT modelling [Zhang
et al., 2020]. SWAT is used to assess the phosphorus retention capacity of a river system. It is
found that phosphorus retention depends on hydrological regimes, water surface area and
suspended sediments [Cheng et al., 2021]. Adaptive differential evolution (DE) algorithm
application is studied for automatic calibration of Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC)
hydrological model for improving the efficacy of the basic DE [Nandi and Reddy, 2021].
SWAT is applied for determination of runoff, sediment yield and other water balance
components of a river basin hydrologic model [Neupane and Pandey, 2021].
22
Application of SWAT to study and assess the efficacy of BMP execution on annual
dependable flows at various probabilities is carried. It is found that BMP treatments [strip
cropping and grade stabilization structure] are effective for medium to high dependable flows
[Palmate and Pandey, 2021].
As of now, from the available literature, there is no much research carried out on runoff
characteristics with regard to trends of hydrology of a proposed city to enact as a water
sensitive city. Also, not much research in detail has done on dynamic hydrologic variable,
runoff and further its impacts on efficient integrated stormwater management especially in
urban areas. Details on spatial and temporal variations of runoff are important to provide
efficient stormwater management of existing and/or proposed smart city to establish as water
sensitive city.
Development of an urban area is occurring through the conversion of existing natural area
into impervious area. Increase of more impervious area affects natural hydrologic cycle with
regard to infiltration and runoff. Change of natural area into impervious area results in
decrease of infiltration and further increase of runoff. Management of stormwater needs to be
more efficient and integrated due to transformation of more urban area into impervious area.
Efficient stormwater management may be attainable with attenuation of runoff through
various best mitigating and/or controlling which can endorse management measures and/or
practices.
The present study is aimed to find the trends of urban hydrology of the proposed city of the
considered study area with regard to runoff characteristics to propose sustainable and/or
resilient measures and/or practices for efficient integrated stormwater management which can
enable the city to attain as water sensitive city. The details of the objectives with novel
aspects of this study are specified in the following section.
2.9 Climate Change Impact Assessment on Precipitation Studies
The impacts of climate change on circulation of Himalayan pheasants were investigated. It
was found that shifting of Himalayan pheasants would occur with future climate scenarios
[Chhetri et al., 2021].
The significant impacts of climate change in urban areas, and adaptation strategies were
reviewed for climate change to make more robust urban environments [Salimi and Al-
Ghamdi, 2020].
Almeida et al. (2017) applied a graphical methodology to find time of concentration, Tc to a
number of rainfall–runoff events of a rural catchment.
Trends in monthly, annual and monsoon total precipitation series were found with linear
regression, the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test and discrete wavelet transform (DWT) methods
[Pandey et al., 2017]. The sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test was applied to detect the
23
temporal trend deviation [Pandey et al., 2017]. Various investigators performed trend analysis
of precipitation data using Mann-Kendall test including certain modified versions [Sen, 2017;
Fathian et al., 2016; and Yilmaz, 2015].
An over-whitening (O-W) procedure was proposed rather pre-whitening (P-W) procedure to
develop serially independent series with the same trend slope value [Şen, 2017]. An
innovative evaluation method was applied for trend for needed analytical formulations for O-
W with wide simulation studies [Şen, 2017]. It was found that O-W procedure is relevant and
reliable to stationary or non-stationary hydrological time series [Şen, 2017]. Four versions of
the Mann-Kendall [M-K] test were applied such as (i) the original M-K test (ii) the M-K test
with lag-1 autocorrelation effect consideration (iii) the M-K test with all autocorrelation or
sample size effect consideration, and (iv) the M-K test with Hurst coefficient to determine
trends of data [Fathian et al., 2016]. Frequency analysis was carried of extreme rainfall data
with generalized Pareto distribution [Yilmaz, 2015]. Statistically significant increasing trends
were obtained in all the rainfall stations minimum for one extreme rainfall index [Yilmaz,
2015]. The univariate geostatistical method (block kriging technology) was applied for
determination of the rainfall patterns within a basin [Chen et al., 2014]. Model parameters
were highly sensitive to variations in imperviousness than that in population density [Chen et
al., 2014]. The modern tools were described which offered to envisage flash floods in USA
and recommended flash flood predicting systems based on accurate data of rainfall of the
magnitude corresponding to flash flooding [Gourley et al., 2014]. Trend analysis studies were
performed including monthly, seasonal and annual trends of rainfall [Kumar et al., 2010].
The impacts of climate change on irrigation requirements at global scale were assessed and
found that a reduction in demand of irrigation by about 17% in the ensemble median because
of increase of precipitation [Konzmann et al., 2013].
It was found that decrease of annual and monsoon rainfall, while increase of rainfall was
observed for pre-monsoon, post-monsoon and winter periods at the national scale [Kumar et
al., 2010].
SDSM [statistical downscaling model] was found as not much fits for the precipitation
modelling to obtain seasonal trends [Souvignet et al., 2010]. Four families of Archimedean
copulas were considered to examine and to select the most apt to mimic the patterns of the
variables like quantity of rainfall, duration and the catchment‟s physical characteristics [Zegpi
and Fernández, 2010]. [Auto Regressive Moving Average] ARMA (0, 4), ARMA (0, 2),
ARMA (0, 2) and ARMA (3, 0), respectively were found as the best-fit models for the
original annual rainfall and 1-, 2- and 3-day maximum rainfall series [Machiwal and Jha,
2008]. ARMA (0, 2) was the best-fit model for the logarithmically transformed 4-day
maximum rainfall [Machiwal and Jha, 2008]. But, ARMA (0, 1) was attained as the best-fit
24
model for the 4-, 5- and 6-day maximum rainfall series which were transformed inversely
[Machiwal and Jha, 2008].
Temperatures as annual mean, mean maximum and mean minimum were raised at the rate of
0.42, 0.92 and 0.09°C (100 year)-1, respectively [Arora et al., 2005]. The seasonal mean
temperature was increased by 0.94°C (100 year)-1 for the post-monsoon season and by 1.1°C
(100 year)-1 for the winter season [Arora et al., 2005].
Monte Carlo simulation was applied to evaluate the various statistical tests power i.e. the
parametric t test, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK), bootstrap-based slope (BS-slope),
and bootstrap-based MK (BS-MK) tests to assess the importance of monotonic (linear and
nonlinear) trends [Yue and Pilon, 2004]. The slope-based tests are slightly more powerful
than rank-based tests, and for non-normally distributed series such as time series with the
Pearson type III (P3), Gumbel, extreme value type II (EV2), or Weibull distributions, the
rank-based tests are with more power than the slope-based tests [Yue and Pilon, 2004]. The
tests power is a little perceptive to the trend profile [Yue and Pilon, 2004].
A minor decrease in precipitation frequency and a raise in precipitation on wet days were
found using two versions of a semi-empirical downscaling method of a GCM [General
Circulation Model] to assess the climate change impacts [Matyasovszky and Bogardi, 1996].
It was found that runoff from the pervious area was produced on only a lesser portion of the
entire catchment area [Boyd et al., 1994].
The impacts of urbanization are on the spread of flow varies on intensity of rainfall and
circulation [Motta Jr and Tucci, 1984].
There have been no climate change impact assessment studies using high resolution
global data especially on urban areas to date available in the literature. Also, the application
of programming tool such as R with advanced package “modifiedmk” for modified version(s)
of Mann-Kendall test for trend analysis with features of bootstrapping, bias correction and
pre-whitening perhaps not applied much on auto-correlated precipitation time series as
obtained from available literature. Further, the effect of climate change on proposed smart
city to transform as water sensitive city has been not performed in much detail to date with
modified Mann-Kendall trend test version(s) and R programming advanced tools. As of now,
only coarser resolution GCM data has been used in India for climate change studies which
may not give accurate results especially for urban areas.
2.10 Climate Change Impact Assessment on Temperature Studies
The climate change impacts on distribution of Himalayan pheasants were investigated
[Chhetri et al., 2021]. It was observed that Himalayan pheasants shifting would occur under
climate scenarios in future [Chhetri et al., 2021]. The climate change impacts which are
significant in urban regions and strategies of adaptation were reviewed for climate change to
25
build further robust urban environments [Salimi and Al-Ghamdi, 2020]. Aparicio et al.
(2017) assessed that the projected annual mean temperatures showed a projected increase of
1.5 to 3.3 0C as an impact of climate change. Dhar and Mazumdar (2009) found that
parameters considered show an increasing trend over the time period under various climate
change scenarios. Wang et al. (2008) studied on hydrologic response of a river basin under
various land-use and climate change scenarios and determined that the runoff reduces with
increase of mean temperature. Fontaine et al. (2001) observed that increase of CO2 in
atmosphere dampens loss of water yield because of rise in temperature.

Yue and Pilon (2004) applied Monte Carlo simulation to compare the various statistical tests
power i.e. the parametric t test, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK), bootstrap-based
slope (BS-slope), and bootstrap-based MK (BS-MK) tests.

2.11 Stormwater Network Model Studies

Avellaneda and Jefferson, 2020 assessed the sensitivity of various metrics of hydrology of a
continuously rising dense rain garden SCM [Stormwater Control Measure] network using
SWAT [Soil and Water Assessment Tool] model. It was found that more than 20% of the
impervious area has to be treated for the majority of the metrics of hydrology to alter
considerably [Avellaneda and Jefferson, 2020]. PySWMM was developed to offer a single
framework to assist amending of hydrologic and network parameters [McDonnell et al.,
2020]. The impacts of climate change due to extreme events were examined using various
AOGCMs [Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Models] for RCP [Representative
Concentration Pathway] 2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios [Roozbahani et al., 2020].It was found
that sustainability of the UWS [urban stormwater system] was slightly more for the base
period simulation than those under RCP scenarios [Roozbahani et al., 2020]. A broad
framework for analysis of risk in urban stormwater systems was provided using FAHP
[Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process], FSAW [Fuzzy Simple Additive Weighting] and
FTOPSIS [Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution]
approaches [Shariat et al., 2019]. Multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) was carried to
assess various options based on four criteria of sustainability for modelling of rainfall-runoff
using AHP [Analytic Hierarchy Process] and PROMETHEE II [Preference-Ranking-
Organization-Method for Enrichment-Evaluation]and found that Micro-tunnelling as the
preferred option [Alhumaid et al., 2018].
Structures of various pipe networks for stormwater in the urban environments were assessed
and regression models were developed [Lee et al., 2018]. A methodology was proposed to
appraise the resilience of an urban water system and obtained results revealed that the concept
26
would assist for the enhancement of thinking on resilience for decision making in water
infrastructure for water-wiser cities [Makropoulos et al., 2018]. A novel procedure of
resilience and stochastic approach with an algorithm of multi objective optimization as part of
a Copula-based Monte-Carlo framework for Urban Stormwater Drainage Systems [USDSs]
was developed [Mohammadiun et al., 2018]. Results revealed that the optimal strategies
would contain a group of relief tunnels, bypass lines, and storage units for convincing
performance with regard to improvement of resiliency of network [Mohammadiun et al.,
2018]. An integrated methodology for modelling of infrastructure networks was presented
with a procedure on probabilistic approach with six-step to evaluate resilience [Guidotti et al.,
2016]. The results enumerated the functionality loss and the recovery process delay as WN
[potable water distribution network] was dependent on the EPN [electric power network]
[Guidotti et al., 2016]. The index of system performance using the curves of penalty and the
equations was described [Tabesh et al., 2016]. The evaluation of benefits of the application of
recommended indices was carried [Tabesh et al., 2016]. Review of contribution to
green/pervious area to urban runoff and its impact on UWS [Urban Stormwater Systems] was
performed [Berggren et al., 2013]. The results indicated that changes in the infiltration
capacity can impact on the urban area and its drainage system in terms of volume and
hydraulic system performance [Berggren et al., 2013].
A method was recommended to manage network of urban water with controllers of simple
nature by integrating SWMM5 [Stormwater Management Model] and Scilab [Degrave et al.,
2013]. It was suggested to adopt the mixed control approach for affirming the advantages of
the local upstream control and the distant downstream control [Degrave et al., 2013]. The
Model for Urban Stormwater Improvement Conceptualisation [MUSIC] was developed on
flws of stormwater and pollution [Dotto et al., 2011]. It was found that the MUSIC model
was very sensitive to EIF [Effective Impervious Fraction] [Dotto et al., 2011].

2.12 Storm Water Management Model [SWMM] Studies

Bai et al. (2019) studied the impact of various LID scenarios on urban flooding using SWMM
[Storm Water Management Model]. It was obtained that the LID model on infiltration and
storage was better worked with regard to peak flow and volume of flood reduction [Bai et al.
(2019)].
Luan et al. (2019) assessed the benefits of single and combined GSI [Green Stormwater
Infrastructure] methods. It was found that detention basins, bioretention and porous
pavements were better performed for decrease of runoff quantity and peak flow [Luan et al.
(2019)].

27
The necessity of chemical variation and processes of physical characteristics in the shallow
groundwater for SWMM was studied to model impacts of water quality in the stream flow
with significant contamination [Niazi et al. (2017)].
Xie et al. (2017) studied the difference between the single LID and the combined system
[permeable pavement and grassed swale] on the management of stormwater using SWMM.
Xu et al. (2017) recommended a methodology with LID-BMP chain layout optimization at
site-scale using combination of Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) and
SWMM with Python.
It was found that total runoff volume control was in excess of 75%, and pollutant removal
rate was more than 32% [Xu et al. (2017)].
Depth of runoff and peak flow are sensitive to changes in the imperviousness, and Manning‟s
roughness coefficient, N of area of impervious [Chow et al. (2012)].
Wang and Altunkaynak (2012) compared SWMM and a fuzzy logic model to assess total
runoff from a watershed. It was obtained that the fuzzy logic model was better working than
the SWMM with lower RMSE [root mean squared error] for runoff determination [Wang and
Altunkaynak (2012)].
Chung et al. (2011) applied multi attribute decision making [MADM] approach to a
catchment. Chung et al. (2011) carried the integration of runoff model results from Storm
Water Management Model (SWMM) using AEI (alternative evaluation index) and MADM
techniques, following the driver-pressure-state impact-response (DPSIR) approach.

Damodaram et al. (2010) applied LID approaches to predict the stormwater decrease due to
retrofitting of existing infrastructure. Results reveal that application of various LID practices
capitulate considerable stormwater control for small events and less control for flood events
[Damodaram et al. (2010)]. It was found that infiltration-based LID technologies are more
effective than BMPs for small storms, and storage based BMP infrastructure is more effective
for managing runoff from more intense storms [Damodaram et al. (2010)]. LID and BMPs
[Best Management Practices] may be applied in blend to achieve flood control and goals of
sustainability for stormwater management [Damodaram et al. (2010)].

Cambez et al. (2008) applied SWMM5 to model hydraulics and water quality in an urban
area. Flows were increased to storage tank plant [STP] from 2 to 4 times the dry weather
flow, the overflow discharges are reduced on 41% for the no storage scenario, and on 48% for
the two simulated storage scenarios [Cambez et al. (2008)].

28
Choi and Ball (2002) presented a methodology for assessment of parameter values that
control with the use of a decision support system. It was found that high accuracy control
parameter estimation was obtained [Choi and Ball (2002)].

2.13 Impacts of urbanization on water quality of the receiving waters

Various researchers have been finding numerous approaches/models to assess urban water
quality about different objectives and parameters. Co-production approach for developing
urban water security indicators and coordinated research to deal with confronts of urban
water management for policy developments were other approaches studied by the
investigators [Brown and Keath (2008); Gómez et al. (2012); Jensen and Wu (2018); and
Trudeau (2020)]. Novotny (1996) suggested that reduction of waste flows and increase of
water assimilative capacity needs to be considered for integrated water quality management
of receiving waters. Pitt (2000) discussed various water quality management aspects. Huang
and Xia (2001) analyzed various developments, challenges and barriers related to practices of
water quality management. Unami and Kawachi (2002) exhibited a universal optimization
concept and its validation using an H∞ controller as a water quality management approach.
Establishing the relation between landscape and water quality in the river basin for long-term
efficient urban water quality management and the role of urban planning studies are vital to
preserve urban water environments [Turner and Rabalais (2003); Goonetilleke et al. (2005);
and Duh et al. (2008)]. Ellis et al. (2005) discussed various facets of urban water quality
management such as impacts of runoff on receiving waters, water, and wastewater reuse, and
future research needs. Kendirli et al. (2005) specified the need for water resources monitoring
and assessment studies to avoid the pollution of water resources and further reuse. Freni et al.
(2008) studied considerations for integrated modelling applications for comprehensive urban
water quality management at catchment scale. Srikanth (2009) described the components
which can impact the management of water quality in rural areas. Jorge et al. (2010)
discussed the aspects of pollution of urban water and the methods and models such as BMP
and LID to reduce associate risks. Freni et al. (2010) applied GLUE (Generalized Likelihood
Uncertainty Estimation) methodology to find the impacts of temporal resolution of rainfall in
urban drainage modelling. Biswas and Tortajada (2011) highlighted the need for a framework
for water quality management. Beenen et al. (2011) presented an integrated approach for
determination of receiving waters quality.
Shen (2012) analyzed water quality management about legislation, institutions, and
instruments for management and offered recommendations for system development.
Tyagi et al. (2013) reviewed the WQI [Water Quality Index] criteria to assess the water
quality. Langeveld et al. (2013) described various data needs for integrated modelling such as
29
calibration, validation, mining and assimilation for urban water. Mamun and Zainudin (2013)
reviewed the prevailing approaches and strategies for conservation of water quality of the
river. Netusil et al. (2014) applied the hedonic price method to determine the impact of water
quality parameters on the valuation of residential properties in urban areas. Autoflow concept
application for intelligent water management, systematic analysis scheme (SAS) for
developing models with application of artificial neural networks [ANNs] and Gamma test
[GT] for urban water quality prediction were studied [Nguyen et al. (2018) and Chang et al.
(2015)]. Behzadian and Kapelan (2015) found the significance of an integrated assessment
approach for urban water system performance at the planning stage. Intervention strategies
that integrated urban water system [UWS] may affect the assessment of performance based
on metabolism were analyzed [Behzadian and Kapelan (2015)]. Mguni et al. (2015)
investigated the execution of SUDS as an evolution for sustainable urban water management.
Vogel and Moore (2016) studied and informed future efforts to enhance stormwater control
and treatment at spatial and temporal scales. Water sensitive urban design (WSUD) and
Sustainable Urban Water Management (SUWM) were studied including climate change
[Sharma et al. (2016) and Hurlimann and Wilson (2018)]. Alfredo and Russo (2017)
reviewed various urban environmental security practices for sustainable water quality.
Miller and Hutchins (2017) reviewed the combined impacts of urbanization and climate on
the urban waters. The evidence for environmental legislation set up and recognized
knowledge gaps were assessed [Miller and Hutchins (2017)]. Lieke (2017) described
emerging trends for sustainable water quality management and the water-energy nexus.
Sadeghi et al. (2017) developed and tested an optimization technique that was novel for the
selection and dimensioning of stormwater control measures (SCMs) in urban landscapes.
Islam et al. (2017) studied the impacts of climate change on urban water quality management
of coastal towns. Jeangros et al. (2017) presented a stochastic and dynamic urban water
quality model by integrating existing models for surface water quality, generation of
wastewater, and routing of drainage. Source control approaches are found as necessary for
compliance with standards for urban water quality management [Jeangros et al. (2017)].
Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) approach for sustainable urban water management with
recycle and reduction of adverse effects of treated wastewater [Page et al. (2018)]. Bekele et
al. (2018) reviewed the current status, challenges, and opportunities of MAR schemes for
sustainable urban water quality management. Goonetilleke et al. (2019) reviewed the need for
complex mechanisms to interpret pollutant processes and impacts of climate change on urban
water quality management. Biswas and Tortajada (2019) discussed the status of water quality
management on a global scale. Hiriart et al. (2019) studied various challenges and
opportunities on urban water quality management. Mannina (2019) presented an approach
30
based on the coefficient of variation for uncertainty analysis in integrated urban water quality
modelling.
Dynamic urban model for flooding, transient flow modeling applications for urban water
supply system (UWSS) analysis and management were also developed for impervious areas
[Mikovits et al. (2015) and Duan et al. (2020)]. Khadka et al. (2020) recommended storage
capacity performance as a flood resilience indicator associated with basin characteristics. Qiu
and Ostfeld (2020) studied a novel dynamic clustering methodology for various objectives
including resiliency and water quality management. Dreizis (2020) studied the various
assessment methods of coastal zone water quality. Various associated methodologies,
applications, and considerations of policies were scrutinized [Dreizis (2020)]. Martin and
Johnson (2020) presented a multiarmed bandit approach for adaptive water quality
management. Salehi et al. (2020) applied principal component analysis [PCA] to correlate
parameters affecting water quality, their origins, and seasonal variations. Also, water quality
indices [WQIs] for evaluation of stormwater quality variations were computed [Salehi et al.
(2020)]. Implications of sustainability on water reuse for urban environments were studied
[Jonathan et al. (2016) and Zhou et al. (2021)].
The present study is aimed at assessment of impacts of proposed urbanization on the quality
of receiving waters in the vicinity using various approaches.

2.14 Assessment of Trends of Groundwater Levels and Quality

Saxena et al. (2003) carried a hydrochemical study on the fresh resources of groundwater and
found that a more percentage of mixed types of water point to the likelihood of concurrent
fresh groundwater dilution event with an intrusion of seawater process. Broers and van der
Grift (2004) studied monitoring of temporal changes in groundwater quality at regional level
and found that the trends are increasing in the aquifer at depth of shallow level. [Link]
al. (2004) groundwater monitoring plans were designed based on various remediation
scenarios and network optimization with trend analysis and site infrastructure for a
petroleum-contaminated site. The monitoring plans presented a decreasing pattern of
sampling frequency related with a increasing trend of the site restoration [[Link] al.
(2004)]. Nas and Berktay (2008) reviewed groundwater quality and assessed spatial
distribution of groundwater quality using GIS, geostatistics techniques, interpolation
technique and ordinary kriging method. It was found that the groundwater quality reduces
south to north of the urban area considered [Nas and Berktay (2008)]. Visser et al. (2009)
compared various methods for the identification and projection of groundwater quality
trends such as statistical methods, groundwater dating, transfer functions and deterministic
modelling. It was found that there is no single optimal method to perceive trends in quality of
31
groundwater across extensively varying catchments [Visser et al. (2009)]. UYAN et al.
(2010) assessed the spatial variations of nitrate concentrations of groundwater with
geostatistical methods, universal kriging method with cross-validation. It was obtained that
the nitrate concentrations were followed a log-normal distribution [UYAN et al. (2010)].
Tabari et al. (2011) examined the trends in groundwater level annually, seasonally and
monthly using the Mann– Kendall test and the Sen‟s slope estimator and obtained that the
stronger increasing trends were recognized in the groundwater level time series in summer
and spring than those in autumn and winter. Bui et al. (2012) carried analysis of recent
groundwater-level trends at spatio-temporal level and found that the levels of groundwater of
confined-aquifer were at downward trend in almost all locations. Daneshvar et al.
(2012) analyzed the trends in groundwater level and fifteen hydro-geochemical elements
using non-parametric modified Mann-Kendall test with pre-whitening. It was found that
negative trends which were significant (α < 0.1) in level of groundwater were predicted.
Panda et al. (2012) investigated the trends in level of groundwater, temperature extremes and
rainfall. It was obtained from the results that a huge number of decreasing trends in levels of
groundwater [Panda et al. (2012)].
Lee et al. (2013) studied on relationship between groundwater and climate change using
Mann-Kendall and Sen‟s slope tests with levels and temperatures of groundwater. It was
found that more plentiful rainfall in the wet season does not add considerably to groundwater
recharge while a lesser amount of rainfall in the dry season can reason for a reduction in the
groundwater level [Lee et al. (2013)].
Dokou et al. (2015) studied the spatial and temporal circulation of pollution of groundwater
for the most regular and severe anionic and cationic element pollutants. Grima et al. (2015)
studied and recommended a methodology for the analysis of groundwater quality using trend
assessment approach and smoothing techniques for regression curve adjustment. Lafare et al.
(2015) carried decomposition analysis of hydrographs from boreholes using visual findings,
tools containing a variance ratio, time-series hierarchical clustering and correlation analysis to
know groundwater behaviour in the Permo-Triassic Sandstone aquifer. GWL [Groundwater
Level] time series which was deseasonalized and de-trended gave characterization of the
response with regard to autocorrelation analysis [Lafare et al. (2015)]. Patle et al. (2015)
carried time series analysis of groundwater levels and prediction of trend using Mann-
Kendall test and Sen‟s slope estimator. It was got from the results that pre and post monsoon
levels of groundwater would reduce [Patle et al. (2015)]. Singh et al. (2015) carried spatio–
temporal analysis of resources of groundwater using Mann–Kendall test, Sen‟s slope
estimator and linear regression method and got the results that typically declining trend in the
time series of the groundwater. Amini et al. (2015) analyzed variability of fluoride
32
concentrations in spatial and temporal perspective in resources of groundwater using Mann–
Kendall trend test and got the results that monotonic trend was observed in the time series of
fluoride concentrations of groundwater. Abdullahi et al. (2015) analyzed trends of
groundwater level using Mann-Kendall trend test and obtained that a negative increase in
trends for the level of groundwater.
It was found that a decreasing trend was predicted with no longer deterioration. Bhanja et al.
(2016) validated storage of groundwater anomaly using in-situ groundwater level
measurements using a non-parametric trend estimation approach, the Hodrick-Prescott (HP)
filter. Minea et al. (2017) studied groundwater response to changes in precipitations using
trend test Mann-Kendall test and Sen‟s slope estimator and the correlation between
groundwater and precipitation was determined based on Bravais-Pearson correlation. It was
found that the increasing trends are governing both for annual and seasonal precipitation and
correlation between hydrostatic level and precipitation is stronger and more recurrent for
summer and autumn [Minea et al. (2017)]. Koh et al. (2017) assessed trends in the
concentrations of NO3-N and Cl from numerous wells and found that the rising trends in
NO3-N were related with the increase of agricultural lands, whereas trends of Cl were
regarded as influenced by various factors apart from the land use changes. Sheikhy et al.
(2017) studied impact of changes of land use on quality of groundwater and obtained that
significant increase of nitrate (NO3-N) concentrations with about 8.1% and 3.89% annually in
agricultural and residential wells, respectively, over 25 years. Thapa et al. (2017) carried
delineation of groundwater potential zones using a geospatial multi-influencing factor
technique and got the results as a declining trend of levels of groundwater. Bhanja et al.
(2018) estimated groundwater storage and its controlling factors in long-term and found that
the precipitation has a vital role to affect groundwater storage [Bhanja et al. (2018)]. Ahmed
et al. (2018) determined hydrogeochemical characteristics and performed statistical analysis
of groundwater and found that the both natural and anthropogenic sources were affecting the
chemistry of groundwater of the aquifers. Alipour et al. (2018) performed analysis of
groundwater at spatio-temporal level in an arid area and found that the criteria of sustainable
development were totally neglected. Biswas et al. (2018) studied to recognize the trends in
pre- and post-monsoon groundwater levels using statistical trend tests like Mann-Kendall,
Sen‟s slope estimator, and linear regression model. It was obtained that the groundwater
levels were reduced significantly [Biswas et al. (2018)]. Kumar et al. (2018) evaluated trends
of groundwater with the use of modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) trend test and Sen‟s slope
estimator. It was obtained that the water level trends variation in two diverse seasons may be
due to the recharge from rainfall in season of post-monsoon [Kumar et al. (2018)]. Pathak
and Dodamani (2018) assessed regional characteristics of groundwater drought using SGI
33
[Standardized Groundwater level Index] and carried trend Analysis of groundwater levels
using Mann–Kendall test. It was obtained that significant declining trends were detected in
more number of the wells which was due to reducing precipitation and overabstraction of
resources of groundwater [Pathak and Dodamani (2018)].
Ouhamdouch et al. (2019) found a decreasing trend of water resources from the piezometric
study to evaluate the impact of climate change on groundwater. Also, groundwater quality
degradation was observed with salinity increase from the hydrogeochemical approach
[Ouhamdouch et al. (2019)]. Anand et al. (2019) examined trends of groundwater levels in
long-term using GIS [Geographical Information System]. The statistical trend tests, Mann–
Kendall test and Sen‟s slope estimator performed had shown that the average annual
groundwater level lowered beyond 15 m (below ground level) during all the monsoon seasons
as infiltration was less and groundwater exploited more [Anand et al. (2019)]. Sakizadeh et
al. (2019) examined the variation of groundwater levels spatially using Fixed Rank Kriging
(FRK) approach. It was found that the 95% confidence bound of ARIMA [Autoregressive
Integrated Moving Average] findings extensive than that of HWES [Holt-Winters
Exponential Smoothing] [Sakizadeh et al. (2019)]. Farid et al. (2019) assessed seasonal and
long‑term changes in groundwater quality due to over exploitation using trend tests such as
Mann–Kendall and Sen‟s slope estimator tests. Groundwater EC [electrical conductivity] and
SAR [sodium adsorption ratio] values were increased during the pre-monsoon season and
were decreased during the post-monsoon season which was due to more use of groundwater
[Farid et al. (2019)]. Hansena et al. (2019) compared groundwater monitoring data of
spatially dense long-term with monitoring data of nitrate in the root zone leaching and in
stream. It was found that the distinct advances in the environmental condition of shallow oxic
groundwater in the first two decades where the number of monitoring points with significant
decreasing nitrate trends progressively increased for both soil types [Hansena et al. (2019)].
Singh et al. (2019) carried Granger causality analysis of patterns of groundwater and found
that the causal linkages were not present between groundwater and many drivers where
significant correlations observed. Bhanja et al. (2019) estimated variations in groundwater
recharge in major river basins across India. It was found that the precipitation rates do not
considerably impact groundwater recharge in the majority of the river basins across India,
demonstrating anthropogenic activities affect existing groundwater recharge rates [Bhanja et
al. (2019)]. Ghosh et al. (2019) recommended an empirical methodology for annual and
seasonal groundwater arsenic pollution. It was predicted that in the pre-monsoon season
unaffected blocks of a year became significantly affected after two years. Haas and Birk.
(2019) analyzed the causes of occurrence of trends and found that the groundwater trend is
opposite to the trends found in water use in Austria. Verma et al. (2019) found the impacts of
34
long-term variations in land use/land cover (LULC) on surface and groundwater resources of
quaternary aquifers. It was obtained that the large-scale variations in groundwater reservoirs
were occurred as LULC changes, features of hydro-geomorphic characteristics and wide
exploration of groundwater practices taken place. Kent et al. (2020) assessed temporal trends
of orthophosphate concentration in groundwater. Jame et al. (2020) analyzed trends of
groundwater and found that irrigated area and groundwater withdrawals were increased
during the last 30 years in humid and temperate regions and area of irrigation area reduced in
semi-arid regions. Ducci et al. (2020) evaluated the trends of nitrate concentrations in
groundwater using Mann-Kendall test and Sen‟s slope estimator and found variations in
groundwater quality at different stations and trends were resulting from environmental
factors. Halder et al. (2020) applied Standard Groundwater Level Index to recognize the
groundwater drought years and found that the recharge potential of the wells is in decreasing
trend. Jiaa et al. (2020) assessed development trends of groundwater reduction, pollution,
remediation techniques, and sustainable management. Nair and Indu (2020) developed a
methodology to perceive the maximum fluctuation point in Gravity Recovery and Climate
Experiment (GRACE) based groundwater time series using analysis of change point. It was
obtained that the shift in the groundwater trend in South India post- 2009 drought [Nair and
Indu (2020)]. Hamidov et al. (2020) studied climate change impact on groundwater
management and the depths of water table in the region usually reduce based on Mann-
Kendall trend test.
Oiro et al. (2020) assessed groundwater resources status under rapid urbanization using
numerical modeling. The modeled study recommended that anthropogenically-driven
reduction trend can be partially mitigated through conjunctive use of water [Oiro et al.
(2020)]. SatishKumar and Venkata Rathnam (2020) analyzed trends of level of groundwater
and found that a significant decreasing trend in five wells of observation.
Valois et al. (2020) assessed trends of groundwater level and recharge event characterization
using seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test and found that in excess of 80% of the time series
shown a decreasing trend.
However, there are no studies carried out using numerous modified versions of Mann-
Kendall test and R programming to assess trends of groundwater level and quality for a
proposed city.

35
 CHAPTER 3
METHODOLOGY
The sequence of total work process of this present study would be described as mentioned in
the below flow diagram [Fig.3.1].
Literature Review Identification of research problem Identification of
research study area Assortment of needed data from various sources
Hydrological modelling Assessment of climate change impact on
precipitation Assessment of climate change impact on temperature
Assessment of impacts of urbanization on receiving waters surface quality
Assessment of groundwater levels and quality Stormwater Network
model Stormwater Management model Study of Reuse of stormwater
Fig.3.1 Total Work Flow Sequence
Following are the various studies that are performed and models that are developed to
establish the integrated stormwater management system for the proposed Amaravati city as
sustainable and resilient and to act as a water sensitive city.
1. Hydrological modelling
2. Assessment of climate change impact on precipitation
3. Assessment of climate change impact on temperature
4. Assessment of impacts of urbanization on receiving waters surface quality
5. Assessment of groundwater levels and quality
6. Stormwater Network model
7. Stormwater Management model
8. Reuse of stormwater study

Fig.3.2 presents total work flow chart of present study. Total work flow chart consists of
literature review at the onset of work and shows various studies and models those are carried
for the present research study.

36
 Literature Review

Identification of Research Problem

Identification of Research Study Area

Assortment of Needed Data from various

sources

Climate Impacts Impacts of Stormwater Reuse of

Hydrological Change Impacts Assessment of Urbanization Stormwater Management Stormwater
Modelling Assessment Groundwater on receiving Network Model Study
Levels and waters quality Model
Quality

Climate Climate
Change Impacts Change Impacts
Assessment on Assessment on
Precipitation Temperature

Fig.3.2 Total Work Flow Chart

Following sections 3.1 to 3.6 describe various studies and models those are worked and
analyzed for integrated stormwater management as sustainable and resilient for the proposed
city to act as water sensitive city. Water sensitive city is one of the efficient and advanced
concepts for integrated urban stormwater management. Details of data considered for various
studies and models are given at the corresponding section. Impacts assessment of climate
change, ground water levels and quality, impacts of urbanization on receiving waters i.e.
Krishna river in the vicinity are carried as trend analysis using Mann-Kendall trend test, Sen‟s
slope to determine magnitude of trend and R-programming. When the data is autocorrelated
or serially correlated, various modified versions of Mann-Kendall test is applied for trend
analysis.
37
3.1 Methodology of Amaravati SWAT Model
Hydrological models are developed for the study area using SWAT to find trends of
hydrology of the proposed urban area for the duration from Jan-1982 to Jul-2014 and for the
projected period from Aug-2014 to Dec-2050. Various sources of data are used to obtain
relevant data such as soil and weather data of the study area [Table 1]. Peak runoff is
determined from simulation as the peak runoff is the key driver of urban stormwater
management. Peak runoff is found for both the periods of simulation i.e. from Jan-1982 to
Jul-2014 and from Aug-2014 to Dec-2050 applying modified rational formula [Neitsch et al.,
2011] and conventional formula. Calibration and validation of the peak runoff results are
carried for the three periods of simulation i.e. from Jan-1979 to Dec-1981 (calibration
period), from Jan-1982 to Jul-2014 (validation period) and from Aug-2014 to Dec-2050
(projected period) using coefficient of determination, R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency
[NSE]. The findings of the present study are useful to assess trends of urban hydrology.
Development of Amaravati SWAT model is carried using SWAT software which contains the
following steps
a. Preparation of Digital Elevation Model [DEM] of study area i.e. proposed Amaravati
city and mosaic of DEM, if study area needs more than one DEM to get a single DEM
representing entire study area.
b. Preparation of land use map indicating various types of land use / land cover patterns
existing in study area
c. Preparation of shape file for soil data
d. Preparation of soil data for SWAT
e. Preparation of weather data
f. Correction of weather data and acclimatization of various formats to present weather
data after correction
g. Verification of data and re-projection
h. Creation and setting of SWAT Project folder
After completion of steps up to the previous step, following are various
steps/procedures/methods which are to be performed for completion of SWAT model
development with results
i. Watershed and sub-watershed delineation which can be even automatic watershed
delineation
j. Defining land use, soil and slope definition
k. Defining and setting HRU [Hydrological Response Unit]s
l. Setting up weather station and writing tables
m. Getting soil information and properties
38
 n. Running simulation and generation of automatic hydrological diagrams including
hydrologic cycle diagram
If required, following steps may be considered to adopt
i. Plotting hydrographs for each sub-watershed for specific time period
ii. Manual calibration for a particular parameter to compare results with
measured/observed data like discharge.
iii. Simulation for the future time period with average climate data

3.1.1 SWAT Inputs

Following Table 3.1 presents the sources of various data considered in the present study.

Table 3.1: Sources of SWAT Inputs

Data Source
Digital Elevation Model, DEM Landsat USGS Earth Explorer
Land Use / Land Cover, LULC AP Space Applications Centre
Soil data FAO and [Link]
Weather data [Link]
India Average Data [Link]/data/india-dataset/

3.2 Assessment of Climate Change Impact on precipitation, temperature, groundwater

levels and quality, and impacts of urbanization on water quality of the river in the
vicinity
Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator are being commonly used for trend analysis of
climate change and other influencing parameters of urban hydrology including water quality.
In the present study, for assessment of impacts of climate change on precipitation,
temperature, groundwater levels and quality, and impacts of urbanization on surface water
quality of receiving waters i.e. Krishna river in the vicinity, trend analysis is performed using
Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen‟s slope estimator using R-programming. When the data is
serially correlated or autocorrelated, various versions of modified Mann-Kendall trend test is
applied to assess trends.
Following equations i.e. eqs. 3.1 to 3.11 give details of parameters related to various
equations of Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen‟s slope.
3.2.1 Mann-Kendall Test: Mann-Kendall test is based on testing the S statistic defined as
n 1 n
S=   sgn( x
i 1 j i 1
j  xi ) (3.1)

where, x1, x2 ……xn represent n data points,

xi and xj are values of data at time i and j respectively.

39
 -1 if (xj-xi) < 0
sgn(xj – xi) = 0 if (xj-xi) = 0 (3.2)
1 if (xj-xi) > 0
m
n(n  1)( 2n  5)   t (t
i 1
i i  1)( 2t i  5)
Var(S) = (3.3)
18

where, n is the number of data points, m is the number of tied groups, and ti denotes the
number of ties of extent i.
MK standard statistic Z is defined as
S−1
if S > 0
Var (S)

Z= 0 if S = 0 (3.4)
S+1
if S < 0
Var (S)

A positive value of Z indicates an upward trend and a negative value indicates a downward
trend. The significance levels (p-values) for each trend test can be attained from the below
equation as (Coulibaly and Shi, 2005)
p = 0.5 - φ Z (3.5)

where, φ ( ) denotes the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of a standard normal variate.
At significance level of 0.1, if p≤0.1 then the existing trend is considered to be statistically
significant.

3.2.2 Sen’s Slope Estimator [Sen, 1968]

Sen‟s slope method is a nonparametric method of estimating the magnitude of trend in terms
of slope of trend. For a given time series xi = x1, x2 ……xn, with N pairs of data, the slope is
x j  xk
calculated as βi = , ұ k ≤ j and i = 1,2 …..N (3.6)
jk

Median of N values of βi gives the Sen‟s estimator of slope, β.

 N 1 if N is odd
2

1  
β= N N 2 if N is even (3.7)
2 2 2

3.2.3 Autocorrelation
When the time series of any hydrological data such as precipitation significantly auto-
correlated or serially correlated, modified version(s) of Mann-Kendall trend test need to be
applied.

40
For any time series xi = x1, x2 ….xn, lag-1 autocorrelation or serial correlation coefficient (r1)
is calculated as [Kendall and Stuart, 1968, Salas et al., 1980]
n 1

 (x
1
i  E ( x i )).( x i 1  E ( x i ))
n 1 i 1
r1 = n
(3.8)
 (x
1
i  E ( x i )) 2
n i 1

where, E(xi) is the mean of the sample and n is the sample size
n

x
1
E(xi) = i (3.9)
n i 1

The probability limits for r1 on the correlogram of an independent series is given by

(Anderson, 1942) as

 1  1.645 n  2
r1 = for the one – tailed test
n 1

 1  1.96 n  2
= for the two – tailed test (3.10)
n 1

If the lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient is found to be within the interval, it can be concluded
that the time series does not exhibit a significant autocorrelation. On the contrary, if the lag-1
autocorrelation coefficient is found to be outside of the interval, it can be said that the time
series exhibits a significant autocorrelation at the 5% significance level.
When time series data of precipitation is significantly autocorrelated or serially correlated,
modified Mann-Kendall test needs to be considered for trend analysis of climate change.
Number of versions are made available for modified version of Mann-Kendall test.
3.2.4 Bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias corrected pre-whitening
Out of various modified Mann-Kendall trend tests, bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test
with optional bias corrected pre-whitening has all the latest methods to remove and resample
significant autocorrelation in time series data such as bootstrapping, bias correction and pre-
whitening.
In the bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias corrected pre-whitening, the
empirical distribution of the Mann-Kendall test statistic is calculated by bootstrapped re-
sampling. The Hamed (2009) bias correction pre-whitening technique can optionally be
applied as the default for pre-whitening before the bootstrapped Mann-Kendall test is applied
(Lacombe et al., 2012).
Bootstrapped samples are calculated by re-sampling one value at a time from the time series
with
replacement. The p-value (ps) of the re-sampled data is estimated by (Yue and Pilon, 2004):
41
 ps = ms/M (3.11)
The Mann-Kendall test statistics (S) is calculated for each re-sampled dataset. The resultant
vector of re-sampled S statistics is then sorted in ascending ordering, where ms the rank
corresponding to the largest bootstrapped value of S is being less than the test statistic value
calculated from the actual data. M is the total number of bootstrapped re-samples. The default
value of M is 1000, however, Yue and Pilon (2004) suggest values between 1000 and 2000.

3.2.5 R Programming
RStudio as IDE [Integrated Development Environment] for R programming, a programming
tool to perform statistical analysis which is made available as open source as well [R Core
Team (2020), Patakamuri and O'Brien (2020) and Wickham and Bryan (2019)].

3.2.6 Data Considered for Climate Change Impacts Assessment on Precipitation

Precipitation data is considered and extracted from high resolution climate change simulation
over south Asia region performed by CCCR [Centre for Climate Change Research] of IITM
[Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology], Pune relevant to study area. Precipitation data is
made available as monthly averages of historical time period [1951 - 2005] and future
projected [2006 - 2095] time period.

3.2.7 Data Considered for Climate Change Impacts Assessment on Temperature

Temperature time series is considered from LaRC (Langley Research Centre, National
Aeronautics and Space Administration) ([Link] as
daily data for the period 03-Jan-1981 to 30-Jun-2021 for the considered study area.

3.2.8 Data Considered for Impacts Assessment of Groundwater Levels and Quality
Groundwater data i.e. level below ground level and various quality parameters data related to
the study area is adapted as available from CWC portal and groundwater and water audit
department, Government of Andhra Pradesh state. Groundwater level data is considered for
the period 1996 - 2021. Groundwater quality data of various parameters is considered for the
period 2000 - 2020. However, as data is not available for few parameters, F, K, Na, NO3,
Residual Sodium Carbonate, SAR and total alkalinity, period of trend analysis is considered
for the period 2000 - 2018.

3.2.9 Data Considered for Impacts Assessment of Urbanization on Receiving Waters

Quality i.e. Surface Water Quality of Krishna River in the vicinity

Long-term surface water quality data of Krishna river at Vijayawada, nearby chosen study
area in the form of concentration of numerous parameters as made available by Central Water
42
Commission, CWC through WRIS [Water Resources Information Systems], their portals and
on the requisition is considered for the present study. Water quality data is collected at a 10-
day scale in normal flow conditions in the river. However, no data is collected during floods
and dry river bed conditions. Surface water quality data of various parameters considered
are: DO [dissolved oxygen], Mg [Magnesium], Al [Aluminium], alkalinity-phenolphthalein,
Biological/Biochemical Oxygen Demand, Cl [Chloride], CO3, total dissolved solids, Fe
[Iron], total hardness, K [Potassium], Na [Sodium], NH3 [Ammonia], orthophosphate, pH,
SAR [Sodium Absorption Ratio], total alkalinity, NO3, Ca [Calcium] and few other for
different time periods.

3.3 Methodology of Stormwater Network Model Development

Stormwater network model is developed using StormCAD software for the study area. Also,
various specifications and recommendations are adapted from Central Public Health and
Environmental Engineering Organisation manual, CPHEEO (2019) on stormwater drainage
systems.
3.3.1 Data Considered
Considering daily average precipitation data as Tulluru point data (LaRC NASA) at latitude
16.530 N and longitude 80.470E as majority of the considered study area belongs to Tulluru
mandal,
Table 3.2 Maximum daily rainfall for 5-year return period
Daily rainfall Daily rainfall
Start Date End Date Start Date End Date
(mm/day) (mm/day)
03-Jan-1981 02-Jan-1986 57.25 03-Jan-2001 02-Jan-2006 73.11
03-Jan-1986 02-Jan-1991 107.24 03-Jan-2006 02-Jan-2011 132.67
03-Jan-1991 02-Jan-1996 97.53 03-Jan-2011 02-Jan-2016 64.35
03-Jan-1996 02-Jan-2001 108.34 03-Jan-2016 25-Feb-2020 74.8

Thus, Average maximum daily rainfall = 89.41 mm/day = 3.73 mm/hr

3.3.2 Development of Amaravati StormCAD Model

Amaravati StormCAD model has been developed to provide stormwater network to proposed
Amaravati city as per CPHEEO (2019), prevailing practices, innovative measures and
recommendations. This StormCAD network model has designed to convey peak flow through
proposed network and discharges storm flow into Krishna river in the vicinity through
proposed outlet at Undavalli village and near Prakasam barrage, Vijayawada.

43
The peak flow which can be allowed through the network is considered as per Cl.[Link] of
CPHEEO (2019) Manual on stomwater drainage systems i.e.
Qp= 10 C I A (3.12)
where,
Qp : Peak flow at the point of design, m3/hr
C : Runoff coefficient, dimensionless
I : Average rainfall intensity should be taken for the duration of rainfall equal to the time of
concentration, mm/hr
A : Catchment area, hectares
The catchment is divided into number of sub-catchments. The division of number of sub-
catchments is made as per SWAT model automatic catchment delineation criteria. Based on
the specified sub-catchment delineation criteria, area of each sub-catchment is obtained.
Runoff coefficient is calculated as the ratio between average annual runoff and average
annual precipitation. These hydrologic parameters values are considered from hydrologic
cycle diagram for the period of simulation from SWAT model.
Stormwater network has modelled as an underground gravity flow system.
Time of concentration of flow through each sub-catchment is arrived by finding the distance
and time taken by hydraulically remote point to reach the outlet of that particular sub-
catchment. Minimum limiting velocity is considered as 0.8 m/s as specified in table 3.9 of
CPHEEO (2013) manual on sewerage and sewage treatment for minimum velocity to be
ensured in gravity sewers. Maximum velocity is considered as 3 m/s as per Table 5.2 of
CPHEEO (2019) manual on stormwater drainage systems. Return period of 5 years is
considered as per Table 4.1 of CPHEEO (2019) manual on stormwater drainage systems for
various types of urban catchments. Average rainfall intensity for each sub-catchment is
considered for the rainfall which persists up to the duration equal to time of concentration.
Average rainfall intensity for each sub-catchment is considered as average maximum daily
rainfall corresponding to recommended design return period i.e. for 5 years return period as
per CPHEEO (2019) manual on stormwater drainage systems.
The same procedure is repeated for each sub-catchment and peak flow is estimated from
each sub-catchment as per eq. (3.12). Then, total peak runoff from entire catchment is
determined as sum of peak runoff from all sub-catchments. The effect of climate change on
rainfall and runoff for the projected period i.e. for next 30 years is assessed and also taken
into account on peak runoff. Thus, total peak runoff from entire catchment including climate
change effect is determined.
This total peak runoff after rounding up is considered as peak flow through stormwater
network. RCC box section is considered as conduit section to convey the designed total peak
44
flow. For each conduit of the network, velocity and discharge of flow are found and verified
to meet/satisfy requirements as per CPHEEO (2019) manual on stormwater drainage systems.
Slope of each conduit is considered with in 1 in 1000 to 1 in 2000. Cover for each conduit
from its crown/top is adopted as 200 mm from existing ground surface at that conduit
location. However, to meet velocity and flow requirements, no cover is allowed at few
conduit locations which are subject to thickness check as per structural requirements. Also,
deep covers up to 15 m is allowed to meet velocity and flow requirements at very few conduit
locations as existing ground is abruptly and largely varying/falling at which conduit/box
thickness is subject to satisfy structural requirements to take large amount of overburden load
and distribution of load from above lying soil.
Design Percent Full [%] which is the percent of depth to arrive design capacity is
considered as 80 %. Box type manhole of 2.5 m [Length]  4.2 m [Width] with a bolted cover
is adopted at and as a junction of two conduits and also at start and stop of each conduit.
Absolute head loss method is adopted at each manhole with a minimum head loss of 0.1 m.
3.3.3 Amaravati Stormwater network model
Amaravati stormwater network model has developed using BENTLEY StormCAD software
CONNECT Update2 [Link] version.
Considered, 10% additional discharge to accommodate unanticipated flows including climate
change effect, Design discharge = 1.1  20.51 m3/sec = 22.56 m3/sec ≈ 23 m3/sec = 23000
lt/sec
Design Parameters for each conduit [CPHEEO (2019) and IRC: 6-2016 Section-II]
Considered, Design Percent Full [%] = 80 %, Velocity = 0.8 – 3 m/s, Section type as Box,
Material as Concrete [Steel Forms] [RCC],
Manning‟s [n/N] = 0.011.
Design Parameters for each manhole
Considered, Section as Box Type
Outfall [Discharge Point]: Outfall is proposed to locate at a position about 1 km from
Prakasam Barrage, Vijayawada, Andhra Pradesh and discharging stormwater which is
considered to flow through the being developed network into the Krishna river in the vicinity.
The type of boundary condition of outfall is considered as free outfall. Position of outfall is
proposed at an invert level of +21.30 m. The section of the conduit conveying stromwater
towards the proposed outfall is partly above the existing ground level in the vicinity such that
the invert [discharging level] may be higher than normal flow level of Krishna river.
3.4 Methodology of Stormwater Management Model [SWMM] Development
Amaravati SWMM model is developed using US EPA [United States Environmental
Protection Agency] SWMM [Storm Water Management Model] software. SWMM is being
45
broadly used all over the world for planning, analysis and design associated to stormwater
runoff, and other systems of drainage in urban regions.

3.4.1 Data considered for development of Amaravati SWMM Model

Amaravati SWMM Model has been developed to evaluate the performance of various LID
controls and BMP options for efficient storm water management with regard to runoff
attenuation for the considered study area i.e. proposed Amaravati city.
The following data for Amaravati SWMM Model is considered, for each type of NO LID and
various LID controls and BMP options.
Software used for SWMM – US EPA SWMM 5.1.014 version
Period of simulation – From 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
No. of sub-catchments – 11
It is obtained from Amaravati SWAT model that contribution of groundwater flow and any
lateral flow to total runoff are insignificant.

3.4.2 Climatology data

Precipitation data is obtained from data sets of SWAT TAMU web portal.
Evaporation data is considered as (i) Monthly averages and (ii) From Temperature data.
Temperature data is considered for Tulluru village area at Latitude 16.530010 N, Longitude
80.470010 E from LaRC (Langley Research Centre, NASA).
([Link]
Wind data is considered as monthly averages from data sets of SWAT TAMU web portal.
3.4.3 Sub-catchment data
Percentage of ground slope is assumed as 0.1 i.e. 1 in 1000, which means for every 1000 m
distance on the ground, it is assumed that there is a ground drop of 1 m. Manning‟s N for
impervious is considered as 0.013 [for concrete with float finish surface], Manning‟s N for
pervious area is considered as 0.03 [for earth winding and sluggish and with grass, some
weeds]. No depression storage is considered both for impervious and pervious areas.
Infiltration process is considered as per CURVE NUMBER method.

3.4.4 LID data

Considered,
Area of each LID unit = 2 acres = 8093.7 m2
Surface width per unit = 500 m
Percentage initially saturated = 0, Percentage of Non-LID impervious area treated = 95%

46
Percentage of Non-LID pervious area treated = 95%
Considered, all outflows from each LID will be returned to non-LID pervious area.
The detailed master plan drawing of proposed Amaravati city is considered for SWMM
model development. The identification of catchment area for the considered main outlet
position and further dividing total catchment into a number of sub-catchments and their areas
are obtained from SWAT model.

Number of trials/iterations are performed for the given data and conditions as mentioned in
above section 4 for Amaravati SWMM model. The optimal results in terms of runoff
attenuation are obtained after executing number of trials by varying impervious and pervious
area proportions. The optimal results of various LID control options obtained are compared
with reference to NO LID option for total peak runoff from the entire catchment. Also, the
optimal results are verified by varying same and differing areas for impervious and zero
depression impervious areas. Sensitivity of considering same and different areas for
impervious and zero depression impervious areas has been analyzed in terms of peak runoff
from each sub-catchment. Also, the sensitivity of considering evaporation from temperatures
and as monthly averages has been analyzed and the results have shown that variation in
evaporation and peak runoff from each sub-catchment is nominal. Further, the sensitivity of
% ground slope, Manning‟s N for impervious and pervious areas, depth of depression in
impervious area and depth of zero depression in impervious area on peak runoff magnitude
variation of each sub-catchment has analyzed and it is found that variation of peak runoff is
negligible though these parameters are influencing total runoff from pervious and impervious
areas.

Table 3.3 Impervious area as a percentage of land use Table 3.4 Amaravati City land use/ land
[Source: Storm Water Management Model cover types and percentage of each land
use / land cover area
Reference Manual Volume I – Hydrology
Land Use / Land Percentage
(Revised)] Cover Type Area
Land Use Percentage Agriculture 59.89
Water 1.64
Impervious Pasture 10.64
Area Built-Up 12.66
Forest 15.16
Commercial 56
[Source: Amaravati SWAT Model ]
Industrial 76
High density residential 51
Medium density residential 38
Low density residential 19
47
 Table 3.3 (Continued)

Institutional 34
Agricultural 2
Forest 1.9
Open Urban Land 11

From the above tables reference on i. SWMM criteria on impervious area as a percentage of
each land use, ii. Amaravati land use / land cover types and their proportions, equivalent
imperious area as per SWMM manual is obtained as mentioned below which is 9.52 %.
Percentage of impervious area as per SWMM manual criteria = Percentage of impervious
area from Agriculture + Forest + Open urban land / pasture + Built – up [as average of
commercial, industrial, High density residential and Institutional]
59.89 15.16 10.64 56+76+51+34 12.66
=2 + 1.9  + 11  +[ ]
100 100 100 4 100

= 1.1978 + 0.288 +1.1704 + 6.8681 = 9.52 %

∴ Percentage of impervious area as per SWMM manual criteria = 9.52 %
No depth of depression for impervious and no depth of zero depression for zero depression
areas are being considered. For the given percentage of ground slope, Manning‟s N for
impervious and pervious areas, starting with the above 9.52% impervious and no zero
depression impervious area, remaining all as pervious area and evaporation as monthly
average option is considered to model to compare results with various other options of LID
controls occupying certain part of each sub-catchment. For the same set of data as mentioned
above, 9.52% impervious and no zero depression impervious area, remaining all area as
pervious area and evaporation from temperature is considered to model as next NO LID
option.
Another NO LID option considered to model is 100% impervious and 100% zero depression
impervious area. By considering bio-retention cell as LID control option for part of each sub-
catchment area with a number of units, runoff results are found. The optimal results with bio-
retention cell LID option are obtained by varying the occupying area of bio-retention cell.
The remaining area of each sub-catchment is modelled as impervious even with zero
depression area.
3.5 Reuse of stormwater study
Difference of flow between total peak runoff from entire catchment and total peak flow
allowed to flow through network is considered for re-use of excess stormwater. Various
options can be studied such as canal system to cater for irrigation needs, LID controls with
BMP options to improve water quality, and combination of canal system and LID controls

48
which can assert sustainable and/or resilient integrated stormwater management for the
proposed Amaravati city to perform as a water sensitive city.

3.6 Impacts of urbanization on surface water quality of the river in the vicinity
Available surface water quality data of Krishna river at Vijayawada CWC monitoring station
is used for analysis purpose. To assess the impacts of urbanization on water quality of river in
the vicinity, trend analysis of various parameters before and at the beginning of urbanization
about tolerance limits as prescribed by the Bureau of Indian Standards related to pollution
parameters for inland surface waters required for different uses is also performed. Also,
application of R programming using the “modifiedmk” package to find trend analysis of
various parameters before and at the onset of urbanization is also carried with the Mann-
Kendall test and Sen‟s slope estimator. As the study area started to develop as an urban area
with the construction of high rise buildings, roads and other urban amenities from the year
2014, thus period before urbanization is considered up to the year 2013 and the start of the
urbanization period is considered from the year 2014 to 2019. The rationale for the selection
of various parameters to assess the impacts of urbanization on water quality is based on their
changes in concentrations at significant scale before urbanization.

49
 CHAPTER 4
MODELLING, ANALYSIS, RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
4.1 Hydrological Modelling
Stormwater management for an urban area is one of the different characteristics associated
with Urban Water Management. For efficient stormwater management, Sustainable Urban
Drainage Systems (SUDS), Low Impact Development (LID) practices with and without Best
Management Practices (BMPs) are few practices being chosen as a preference for sustainable
and/or resilient urban drainage systems in different regions.
Hydrological models such as SWAT and TOPLATS were used by different researchers
[Cheng et al., 2021; Busico et al., 2020; Kannan et al., 2019; Wang et al., 2008; Bormann et
al., 2009; Dhar and Mazumdar, 2009; Ghaffari et al., 2010; Shawul et al. 2013; Arnold,
[Link] al. 2012] to understand the runoff patterns in spatial distribution of land use land cover
and precipitation characteristics. Runoff of the mountain reaches of the catchment increased
when the grassland area increased and forestland decreased. The simulated runoff increased
with increased precipitation, but increase in the mean temperature decreased the runoff under
the same precipitation condition. The effect of spatial resolution and distribution of model
input data on the results of regional-scale land use scenarios using three different
hydrological catchment models were analyzed. It was found that in case of spatial
distribution, SWAT and TOPLATS (TOPMODEL based atmosphere transfer scheme) were
slightly sensitive to a redistribution of land use (below 1.5% for water balance terms),
whereas WASIM (WASIM is a process-based and grid-based hydrological catchment model)
shown almost no reaction. SWAT tool was also applied over the Kangsabati river watershed
in the Bankura district of West Bengal, India, for a year including monsoon and non-monsoon
period to assess projected parameters for farming operations. The major findings were that of
all the selected projected factors, transmission losses, soil water content, potential
evapotranspiration, evapotranspiration, and lateral flow to reach, shown an increasing trend
over the period 2041–2050.
Simulation of the water balance was made with SWAT tool. The results specified “that the
hydrological response to overgrazing and the replacing of rangelands (grassland and
shrubland) with rain-fed agriculture and bare ground (badlands) was nonlinear and exhibited
a threshold effect. The runoff increased dramatically when more than 60% of the rangeland
was removed.
Development of an urban area is occurring through the conversion of existing natural area
into impervious area. Increase of more impervious area affects natural hydrologic cycle in
regards to infiltration and runoff. Change of natural area into impervious area results in

50
decrease of infiltration and further increase of runoff. Management of stormwater may
become more efficient as reduction of runoff occurs through various best mitigating practices.
Amaravati, the proposed city of Andhra Pradesh state, India is chosen as a study area.
Proposed Amaravati city which is envisaged as pioneer Smart City of India and planned to
include infrastructure to perform as Water Sensitive City. The present study set the objectives
to find the existing natural hydrologic cycle, and to apply the various efficient management
practices for stormwater which may be considered to implement as and when the proposed
Amaravati city develops and grows to full extent.
Hydrological modelling for the considered study area is performed using SWAT software.
Modelling process is adopted as specified in section 3.1 of methodology chapter. Further,
following are various inputs and their sources considered for hydrological modelling with
description of modelling aspects and characteristics of various parameters associated.
4.1.1 Study Area Maps

Proposed Amaravati City

Fig. 4.1.1: Study area Map Fig. 4.1.2: Study area location in India Map
(Source: USGS Earth Explorer)

Legend
Agricultural Land – Yellow
Water – Blue
Pasture – Pink
Built Up – Red
Forest/Scrub land - Green

Fig. 4.1.3: Land use land cover [LULC] GIS map of study area
51
 Sub-basin network

Hydrological
station
Fig. 4.1.4: Study Area Map with Sub-basins

4.1.2 SWAT Inputs

Following are the data considered from the sources as listed below
Table 4.1.1: Sources of SWAT Inputs
Data Source
Digital Elevation Model, DEM Landsat USGS Earth Explorer
Land Use / Land Cover, LULC AP Space Applications Centre
Soil data FAO and [Link]
Weather data [Link]
India Average Data [Link]/data/india-dataset/

Table 4.1.2 provides details of attributes and their values of DEM used in the present study.

Table 4.1.2: Details of Attributes of DEM (Source: USGS Earth Explorer)

Data Set Attribute Attribute Value

DEM Product Identifier Landsat LC08 L1TP

Map Projection Level-1 UTM

UTM Zone 44

Datum WGS84

Grid Cell Size Panchromatic 15

Grid Cell Size Reflective 30

Grid Cell Size Thermal 30

52
Land use / land cover map of study area is obtained from Andhra Pradesh Space Applications
Centre portal and is reclassified [Fig.4.1.3] into five types i.e. agricultural land, water,
pasture, built up and forest/scrub land. Soil data and various parameters of weather such as
precipitation, temperature, relative humidity etc as obtained from various sources are used in
the present study [Table 4.1.1].
Type of soil within the major part of the study area is deltaic alluvial soil. Rock type varies
from unconsolidated sand with/without clay, silt, and calcareous hard sedimentaries to non-
calcareous sedimentaries (Source: Hydrogeological and Hydrological Atlas of A.P. CGWB
1983).
Initial depth of water in the shallow aquifer (SHALLST) is considered as 1000 mm while
initial depth of water in the deep aquifer (DEEPST) is provided as 2000 mm. Groundwater
delay time (GW_DELAY) is given as 31 days. Baseflow alpha factor (ALPHA_BF) is
provided as 0.048 days. Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer required for return
flow to occur (GWQMN) is considered as 1000 mm. Groundwater revap coefficient
(GW_REVAP) is provided as 0.02. Threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer for revap
or percolation to the deep aquifer to occur (REVAPMN) is given as 750 mm. Deep aquifer
percolation fraction (RCHRG_DP) is considered as 0.05. Initial groundwater height (GWHT)
is given as 1 m. Specific yield of the shallow aquifer (GW_SPYLD) is provided as 0.003.
Calibration period is considered as the period from 01-Jan-1979 to 31-Dec-1981. Validation
period is considered as the period from 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014 while projected period is
carried as the duration from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050.
Indian Meteorological Department, IMD Gannavaram station precipitation data is used for
calibration purpose for the period 1979-1981. Mandal [Sub-region] wise observed
precipitation data which is provided by AP CRDA/AMRDA is used for validation purpose
for the period from Jan-1982 to Jul-2014 and for the projected period from Aug-2014 to Dec-
2050.
Catchment of the study area is divided into 11 number of sub-basins with 43 number of
Hydrological Response Units [HRUs]. Details of sub-basin areas [Table 4.1.2] and land use
land cover proportions [Table 4.1.3] which are arrived from simulation are described in
section 4.1.4.
4.1.3 SWAT Model Description
Considering, the inputs from various sources as specified in 2.2 and adopting the
methodology as described in 2.1, hydrological models are developed with actual and
projected data using SWAT software for the proposed Amaravati city of Andhra Pradesh
state, India to find the natural hydrological cycle including the parameters affecting like
precipitation, infiltration, evaporation and runoff. Hydrological model with actual data is
53
performed for the simulation period from 01-Jan-1979 to 31-Jul-2014 and that with projected
data for the period of simulation from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050. Simulation with actual
data is carried with an initial period of 3 years as warm-up period which can establish the
stable conditions for hydrologic regime and is considered as calibration period. Hence, the
period of simulation with actual data is considered as from 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014 as
validation period.
Identification of the catchment / basin of the study area is originated using automatic
catchment delineation option which is made available from SWAT software. Also, total
catchment is divided into 11 number of sub-catchments / sub-basins and their areas obtained
using SWAT. Total catchment area comes out as 72.012 km2. Classification of land use / land
cover type such as agriculture, water, pasture etc. is done and their area proportions is
arrived. Hydrological Response Units, HRUs are defined as mentioned in below section 4.3
and they are separated as 43 in number.
Sub-basin wise maximum flows i.e. inflow, outflow and evaporation are determined and
presented for actual data and for projected data. Hydrologic cycle diagram is obtained from
SWAT and presented for the period of simulation from 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014 and Fig.2
for the period of simulation from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050.
4.1.4 Hydrological Modelling with actual data
Following are the salient points of modelling with actual data,
Period of Simulation – From 01-Jan-1979 to 31-Jul-2014
Simulation done using SWAT Dec23 2016 VER 2016/Rev 664
Simulation length (Years) – 36; Warm Up (Years) – 3; HRUs – 43

Table 4.1.3: Sub-basin wise Areas

Sub-basin 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Area, km2 2.22 17.47 1.73 14.88 11.87 1.77 5.35 8.44 2.75 1.96 3.56

Total catchment area, km2= 72.012 km2

Table 4.1.4: Results of Land Use/Land Cover Proportions
Land use/ Land cover type Agriculture Water Pasture Built-up Forest
Area (%) 59.89 1.64 10.64 12.66 15.16

Hydrological Response Unit, HRU Definition

Considered, HRU definition as
Land use % over sub-basin area – 12 %
Soil class % over land use area – 15 %
54
Slope class % over soil area – 15 %

4.1.5 Hydrological Modelling with projected data

Following are the salient points of modelling with projected data,
Period of Simulation – From 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050
Simulation length (Years) – 37; Warm Up (Years) – 0; HRUs – 43; Sub-basins – 11

55
4.2 Climate Change Study

There is a rising apprehension in the scientific society to know chances of any considerable
variations in precipitation value, intensity, duration, and frequency as the variations in
precipitation patterns result in floods or droughts (Chang et al., 2007, Song et al., 2014, and
Zhai et al., 2014). Region wise downscaled climate models are used to provide future
changes in climate and their impact on various hydrologic variables.
Also, trend analysis of precipitation needs vital and methodical awareness since precipitation
may affect significantly on freshwater presence, happening of extreme events, food security,
and economic activities (Dawadi and Ahmad, 2012, Kumar et al., 2010 and Kalra and
Ahmad, 2011).
Therefore, from both scientific and practical point of view, the spatial and temporal
variability of precipitation time series is important.
It has become significant to analyse the variations in precipitation characteristics in urban
areas as a result of rapid urbanization in developing countries which has modified the natural
hydrologic cycle even at local scale (Wang et al., 2012
Precipitation variations in urban areas lead to challenges in stormwater management in regard
to water quantity and water quality (Dawadi and Ahmad, 2013, Venkatesan et al., 2011).
Climate Change study has undertaken for the considered study area i.e. proposed Amaravati
city of bifurcated new state of Andhra Pradesh which is proposed as pioneer Smart City of
India and planned to include infrastructure to perform as Water Sensitive City. In the present
study, precipitation time series data has taken from high resolution climate change simulation
over south Asia region performed by CCCR [Centre for Climate Change Research] of IITM
[Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology], Pune, India. CCCR of IITM utilized an
atmospheric general circulation model from a variable resolution global modeling framework
with alliance LMD (Laboratorie Dynamique Meteorologie, France). Available monthly
simulated rainfall data for historical period (1951 – 2005) and future projected rainfall data
for the period 2006 – 2095 with RCP [Representative Concentration Pathway] 4.5 scenario
are used for the present climate change study to perform trend analysis.
Mann-Kendall test (Mann, 1945 and Kendall, 1955) and Sen‟s slope test (Sen, 1968) are
applied to find trend of climate and magnitude of trend respectively within the proposed study
area, Amaravati city. Climate change studies can be undertaken through various statistical
analyses, however, Mann-Kendall test is known to be the most commonly used technique to
determine the change in climate. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test is used for the
detection of monotonic trends in various time series of hydrological, climate or

56
environmental data. Mann-Kendall test gives the monotonic characteristics of the trend of
time series of hydrological data such as precipitation.
4.2.1 Data Considered
Precipitation data is considered and extracted from high resolution climate change simulation
over south Asia region performed by CCCR [Centre for Climate Change Research] of IITM
[Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology], Pune relevant to Amaravati study
area. Precipitation data is made available as monthly averages of historical time period [1951
- 2005] and future projected [2006 - 2095] time period.
4.2.2. Check for Significant Autocorrelation
As time series data of precipitation for each time period related to considered study
area is significantly auto-correlated or serially correlated, hence, modified Mann-Kendall test
needs to be considered for trend analysis of this climate change study. Numbers of versions
are made available for modified version of Mann-Kendall test. In those versions,
bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias corrected pre-whitening is applied
as a modified version of Mann-Kendall test for trend analysis of time series of precipitation
data for each time period which may be historical [1951-2005] and/or future projected [2006-
2095] data with R programming as a statistical analysis tool.
Table 4.2.1 Check for Significant Autocorrelation – Monthly Data
Lag-1 Existence of
Lower
Time Period Upper Limit Autocorrelation Significant
Limit
Coefficient Autocorrelation
1951 - 1960 0.06 0.68 -0.06 True
1961 - 1970 0.06 0.67 -0.06 True
1971 - 1980 0.06 0.67 -0.06 True
1981 - 1990 0.06 0.72 -0.06 True
1991 - 2005 0.05 0.62 -0.05 True
2006 - 2015 0.06 0.75 -0.06 True
2016 - 2025 0.06 0.67 -0.06 True
2026 - 2035 0.06 0.68 -0.06 True
2036 - 2045 0.06 0.69 -0.06 True
2046 - 2055 0.06 0.64 -0.06 True
2056 - 2065 0.06 0.62 -0.06 True
2066 - 2075 0.06 0.56 -0.06 True
2076 -2085 0.06 0.68 -0.06 True
2086 - 2095 0.06 0.61 -0.06 True

57
 4.2.3 Trend analysis using CORDEX daily data
Table 4.2.2 presents check for significant autocorrelation in CORDEX daily data of historical
period i.e.1951-2005, RCP 4.5 scenario period i.e.2006-2099 and RCP 8.5 scenario period i.e.
2006-2099.

Table 4.2.2 Check for Significant Autocorrelation- Daily Data

Lag- 1 Existence of
Type of Time Upper Lower
Time Period Autocorrelation Significant
Period Limit Limit
Coefficient Autocorrelation
1951 - 1960 0.027 0.228 -0.027 True
1961 - 1970 0.027 0.256 -0.027 True
Historical 1971 - 1980 0.027 0.299 -0.027 True
1981 - 1990 0.027 0.275 -0.027 True
1991 - 2005 0.022 0.225 -0.022 True
2006 - 2015 0.027 0.207 -0.027 True
2016 - 2025 0.027 0.343 -0.027 True
2026 - 2035 0.027 0.252 -0.027 True
2036 - 2045 0.027 0.279 -0.027 True
2046 - 2055 0.027 0.246 -0.027 True
RCP 4.5
2056 - 2065 0.027 0.266 -0.027 True
2066 - 2075 0.027 0.240 -0.027 True
2076 -2085 0.027 0.263 -0.027 True
2086 - 2095 0.027 0.186 -0.027 True
2096-2099 0.043 0.209 -0.044 True
2006-2015 0.027 0.281 -0.027 True
2016-2025 0.027 0.293 -0.027 True
2026-2035 0.027 0.262 -0.027 True
2036-2045 0.027 0.232 -0.027 True
2046-2055 0.027 0.270 -0.027 True
RCP 8.5
2056-2065 0.027 0.209 -0.027 True
2066-2075 0.027 0.240 -0.027 True
2076-2085 0.027 0.235 -0.027 True
2086-2095 0.027 0.294 -0.027 True
2096-2099 0.043 0.265 -0.044 True

58
4.3 Stormwater Network Model

Stormwater network model is developed as underground gravity flow system for the proposed
Amaravati city. Amaravati stormwater network model has developed using BENTLEY
StormCAD software CONNECT Update2 [Link] version. Specifications, guidelines and
recommendations are adopted from CPHEEO (2019) and other IS and IRC standard
practices, recommendations and prevailing practices, and innovative measures and/or
practices.
Following are the various computations carried as part of network development for the
considered study area following the procedure specified in the section 3.3 of methodology
chapter.
4.3.1 Hydraulic Computations of design discharge
Considering daily average precipitation data as Tulluru point data (LaRC NASA) at latitude
16.530 N and longitude 80.470E as majority of the considered study area belongs to Tulluru
mandal,

Table 4.3.1 Maximum daily rainfall for 5-year return period

Maximum daily rainfall
Strat Date End Date
(mm/day)
03-Jan-1981 02-Jan-1986 57.25
03-Jan-1986 02-Jan-1991 107.24
03-Jan-1991 02-Jan-1996 97.53
03-Jan-1996 02-Jan-2001 108.34
03-Jan-2001 02-Jan-2006 73.11
03-Jan-2006 02-Jan-2011 132.67
03-Jan-2011 02-Jan-2016 64.35
03-Jan-2016 25-Feb-2020 74.8

Thus, Average maximum daily rainfall = 89.41 mm/day = 3.73 mm/hr

Considering eq. (3.12) for peak flow computation, runoff coefficient from SWAT model, C =
[Link] minimum velocity of 0.8 m/s, considering sub-basin details from Amravati SWAT
model,

59
 Table 4.3.2 Peak Flow Computations
Sub- Sub- Distance of Time taken Time Intensity of Peak flow = Peak flow
basin basin outlet from for the taken rainfall 10CIA,m3/hr =
area, hydraulically remote for the corresponding 10CIA,m3/s
A,km2 remote point point to remote to tc, I, mm/hr
from SWAT reach outlet, point to
Model [m] tc [sec] reach
outlet, tc
[min]
1 2.222 2025 2531.25 42.19 2.62 2913.77 0.81
2 17.47 945 1181.25 19.69 1.22 10690.82 2.97
3 1.729 2385 2981.25 49.69 3.09 2670.36 0.74
4 14.88 1185 1481.25 24.69 1.53 11418.46 3.17
5 11.87 2235 2793.75 46.56 2.89 17179.66 4.77
6 1.773 1680 2100 35.00 2.18 1928.88 0.54
7 5.346 233 290.625 4.84 0.30 804.89 0.22
8 8.446 1770 2212.5 36.88 2.29 9680.79 2.69
9 2.754 2198 2746.875 45.78 2.85 3919.04 1.09
10 1.957 2325 2906.25 48.44 3.01 2946.46 0.82
11 3.565 4193 5240.625 87.34 5.43 9678.74 2.69

Therefore, Total peak flow, Qp = 20.51 m3/s

4.3.2. Design of Conduit Section [As box section]

Consider, conduit section as rectangular box section,
For most efficient/economical rectangular section,
Bed width, b = 2  depth of flow, d (4.1)
d
Hydraulic mean radius, R = 2 (4.2)

Assume,
Bed width of the rectangular channel, b = 3.8 m
b 3.8
Depth of flow, d = = = 1.9 m
2 2

Area of cross section, A = b  d = 3.8  1.9 = 7.22 m2

1
Assume, Slope of the channel, S = 1 in 950 = = 0.001
950
As per table 5.1 of CPHEEO (2019),

60
Manning's N for Spun concrete pipes (RCC & PSC) with S / S Joints (Design value) = 0.011

For most economical section,

d 1.9
Hydraulic mean radius, R = 2 = = 0.985 m
2
1 2 1
Using Manning‟s Equation, Velocity of flow, V = N R 3 S 2 (4.3)
1 2 1
= 0.011  0.985 3  0.001 2

V = 2.85 m/s
Thus,
Discharge carrying capacity of the rectangular channel, Q, m3/s = A  V = 7.22  2.85 =
20.58 m3/s > Discharge required = 20.51 m3/s OK
Thus, provide
A most efficient rectangular channel as box section with dimensions as,
Bed width, b = 3.8 m
Depth of flow, d = 1.9 m
1
Slope, S =
950
Free board = 0.6 m

4.3.3 Amaravati Stormwater network model

Amaravati stormwater network model has developed using BENTLEY StormCAD software
CONNECT Update2 [Link] version.
Considered, 10% additional discharge to accommodate unanticipated flows including climate
change effect,
Design discharge = 1.1  20.51 m3/sec = 22.56 m3/sec ≈ 23 m3/sec = 23000 lt/sec
Design Parameters for each conduit [CPHEEO (2019) and IRC: 6-2016 Section-II]
Considered,
Design Percent Full [%] – 80 %
Velocity – 0.8 – 3 m/s
Section type – Box
Material – Concrete [Steel Forms] [RCC]
Rise – 2.5 m [Depth of flow – 1.9 m, free board – 0.6 m]
Span – 3.8 m [Modified at certain conduit locations i.e. CO2 (4.2 m), CO18 (4.2 m), CO44
(4.0 m) and CO167 (4.2 m) to satisfy velocity and flow requirements]
Cover – 20 cm

61
Wall thickness - 72 cm, considering maximum depth of invert from existing ground surface
and IRC Class AA tracked vehicle loading
Manning‟s n – 0.011
Design Parameters for each manhole
Considered,
Section – Box Type
Length – 2.5 m
Width – 4.2 m

Fig. 4.3.1 Amaravati StormCAD Model

Number of conduits = 167
Number of manholes = 167
Total length of network = 145.59 km
Table 4.3.3 Range of Cover

Range Cover (Start)(m) Cover (Stop) (m)

Minimum (m) 0.2 0.2
Maximum (m) 14.39 9.28

Note: As per CPHEEO (2019), cover is defined as the distance from the outside top of the
pipe to the final grade of the ground surface and minimum cover to provide is 0.2 m for RCC
box drains.

Outfall [Discharge Point]: Outfall is proposed to locate at a position about 950 m from
Prakasam Barrage, Vijayawada, Andhra Pradesh and discharging stormwater which is
considered to flow through the being developed network into the Krishna river in the vicinity.
The type of boundary condition of outfall is considered as free outfall. Position of outfall is
proposed at an invert level of +21.30 m. The section of the conduit conveying stromwater
towards the proposed outfall is partly above the existing ground level in the vicinity such that
the invert [discharging level] may be higher than normal flow level of Krishna river.
62
4.3.4 Various other components/considerations criteria for efficient and sustainable
and/or resilient integrated stormwater management
Proposed Alignment of Stormwater Network
Stormwater network needs to be aligned at the side of a road or a high ground so that any
stormwater after falling on the ground flows towards the nearby conduit of the network
through suitable inlets and gutter system.

Fig. 4.3.2 Inlet and Gutter System

[Source: Manual on Storm Water Drainage Systems, CPHEEO (2019)]

As per Manual on Storm Water Drainage Systems, CPHEEO (2019),

Outfall Structure
Adequate protection mechanism should be provided to check backflow of water in the outfall
drain. Cascading and apron structure if necessary may be incorporated in the Outfall Structure
System.
Typical drawing of outlet structure for river/streams is given as shown in below Fig. 4.3.3 and
Fig. 4.3.4

63
 Fig. 4.3.3 Stormwater Channel Outfall
[Source: Manual on Storm Water Drainage Systems, CPHEEO (2019)]

Fig. 4.3.4 Stormwater Conduit Outfall

[Source: Manual on Storm Water Drainage Systems, CPHEEO (2019)]

a. The Boulder or stone pitching should be done over the bank of the river to protect against
erosion of the bank.
b. The pitching should extend 5 times the depth of outfall storm water channel/conduit
c. Barricades should be installed wherever applicable to safeguard against any type of damage
to the structure

Backflow Control Systems

Backflow prevention devices are used when it is desirable to limit the degree of backflow or
likelihood of backflows. The most common types of backflow prevention devices include
flap gates and mechanically operated gates.

64
Flap Gates and Flood Gates
Flap gates are to be installed at or near storm drain outlets for the purpose of preventing back
flooding of the drainage system at the high tides or high surges in the Receiving Ocean or
tidal streams.

65
4.4 Storm Water Management Model

Proposed Amaravati city is considered to develop as a best smart city by Government of

Andhra Pradesh. Proposed Amaravati city is within considerable rainfall zone and completely
new smart city being developed, thus, there is a need to provide an effective stormwater
management to act as a water sensitive city for longer duration. Proper stomwater
management system for effective and efficient control and discharge can be taken as a
research study for the proposed Amaravati city.
For the considered Amaravati city of Andhra Pradesh state, to perform the research study of
stormwater management system as efficient, Storm Water management Model (SWMM) of
US EPA [Environmental Protection Agency] has adopted as a tool to model and
determination of performance of various LID controls and BMP options for efficient
stormwater management.

4.4.1 Data considered for development of Amaravati SWMM Model

Amaravati SWMM Model has been developed to evaluate the performance of various LID
controls and BMP options for efficient storm water management with regard to runoff
attenuation for the considered study area i.e. proposed Amaravati city.
The following data for Amaravati SWMM Model is considered, for each type of NO LID and
various LID controls and BMP options.
Software used for SWMM – US EPA SWMM 5.1.014 version
Period of simulation – From 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
No. of sub-catchments – 11
It is assumed and evident from Amaravati SWAT model that contribution of groundwater
flow and any lateral flow to total runoff are insignificant.
4.4.2 Climatology data
Precipitation data is obtained from data sets of SWAT TAMU web portal.
Evaporation data is considered as (i) Monthly averages and (ii) From Temperature data.
Temperature data is considered for Tulluru village area at Latitude 16.530010 N, Longitude
80.470010 E (LaRC NASA).
Wind data is considered as monthly averages from data sets of SWAT TAMU web portal.
4.4.3 Sub-catchment data
Percentage of ground slope is assumed as 0.1 i.e. 1 in 1000, which means for every 1000 m
distance on the ground, it is assumed that there is a ground drop of 1 m. Manning‟s N for
impervious is considered as 0.013 [for concrete with float finish surface], Manning‟s N for
pervious area is considered as 0.03 [for earth winding and sluggish and with grass, some
66
weeds]. No depression storage is considered both for impervious and pervious areas.
Infiltration process is considered as per CURVE NUMBER method.
4.4.4 LID data
Considered,
Area of each LID unit = 2 acres = 8093.7 m2
Surface width per unit = 500 m
Percentage initially saturated = 0, Percentage of Non-LID impervious area treated = 95%
Percentage of Non-LID pervious area treated = 95%
Considered, all outflows from each LID will be returned to non-LID pervious area.
The detailed master plan drawing of proposed Amaravati city is considered for SWMM
model development. The identification of catchment area for the considered main outlet
position and further dividing total catchment into a number of sub-catchments and their areas
are obtained from SWAT model.

67
4.5 Peak Runoff Determination
4.5.1 Rainfall Analysis
Considering source of rainfall data: Daily rainfall in mm of Thulluru mandal in Guntur
district (AP CRDA/AMRDA) as area of Thulluru mandal occupies most of the proposed
Amaravati city.
Adopting, IMD [Indian Meteorological Department] empirical reduction formula for short
duration rainfall as
1
t 3
Pt = P24 (4.4)
24

where, Pt is the required rainfall depth in mm at t-hr duration,

P24 is the daily rainfall in mm and t is the duration of rainfall for which the rainfall depth is
required in hour.

Table 4.5.1 Maximum Annual Series of Rainfall Depth (mm) for various durations in
min.
[Table 3.14, Manual on storm water drainage systems, CPHEEO (2019)]

Year Months Annual 15 min. 30 45 60 min 75 min 90 min 120 180

Max. Rainfall min. min. Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall min min
Daily Rain Rain Rainfall Rainfall
Rainfall fall fall
(mm)
1989 Mar- 137.3 29.99 37.78 43.25 47.60 51.27 54.49 59.97 68.65
Dec
1990 Jan-Dec 132.3 28.89 36.40 41.67 45.87 49.41 52.50 57.79 66.15
1991 Jan-Dec 139.2 30.40 38.30 43.85 48.26 51.98 55.24 60.80 69.60
1992 Jan-Dec 95.0 20.75 26.14 29.92 32.93 35.48 37.70 41.50 47.50
1993 Jan-Dec 60.2 13.15 16.56 18.96 20.87 22.48 23.89 26.29 30.10
1994 Jan-Dec 95.2 20.79 26.20 29.99 33.00 35.55 37.78 41.58 47.60
1995 Jan-Dec 109.2 23.85 30.05 34.40 37.86 40.78 43.34 47.70 54.60
1996 Jan-Dec 119.2 26.03 32.80 37.55 41.32 44.52 47.30 52.07 59.60
1997 Jan-Dec 64.8 14.15 17.83 20.41 22.46 24.20 25.72 28.30 32.40
1998 Jan-Dec 93.4 20.40 25.70 29.42 32.38 34.88 37.07 40.80 46.70
1999 Jan-Dec 71.1 15.53 19.56 22.40 24.65 26.55 28.22 31.06 35.55
68
Continued on next page
 Table 4.5.1 Maximum Annual Series of Rainfall Depth (mm) for various durations in min.
(Continued)

Year Months Annual 15 min. 30 45 60 min 75 min 90 min 120 180

Max. Rainfall min. min. Rainfall Rainfall Rainfall min min
Daily Rain Rain Rainfall Rainfall
Rainfall fall fall
(mm)
2000 Jan-Dec 71.8 15.68 19.76 22.62 24.89 26.81 28.49 31.36 35.90
2001 Jan-Dec 97.4 21.27 26.80 30.68 33.77 36.37 38.65 42.54 48.70
2002 Jan-Dec 49.8 10.88 13.70 15.69 17.26 18.60 19.76 21.75 24.90
2003 Jan-Dec 96.2 21.01 26.47 30.30 33.35 35.93 38.18 42.02 48.10
2004 Jan-Dec 58.4 12.75 16.07 18.39 20.25 21.81 23.18 25.51 29.20
2005 Jan-Dec 183.0 39.97 50.35 57.64 63.44 68.34 72.62 79.93 91.50
2006 Jan-Dec 93.4 20.40 25.70 29.42 32.38 34.88 37.07 40.80 46.70
2007 Jan-Dec 85.5 18.67 23.53 26.93 29.64 31.93 33.93 37.35 42.75
2008 Jan-Dec 148.0 32.32 40.72 46.62 51.31 55.27 58.73 64.64 74.00
2009 Jan-Dec 125.0 27.30 34.40 39.37 43.34 46.68 49.61 54.60 62.50
2010 Jan-Dec 130.2 28.44 35.83 41.01 45.14 48.62 51.67 56.87 65.10
2011 Jan-Dec 120.2 26.25 33.07 37.86 41.67 44.89 47.70 52.50 60.10
2012 Jan-Dec 107.8 23.54 29.66 33.95 37.37 40.26 42.78 47.09 53.90
2013 Jan-Dec 177.7 38.81 48.90 55.97 61.61 66.36 70.52 77.62 88.85
2014 Jan-Sep 54.6 11.92 15.02 17.20 18.93 20.39 21.67 23.85 27.30

Table 4.5.2 Mean and Standard deviation of Maximum Annual Series of Rainfall Depth
Rainfall
15 min 30 min 45 min 60 min 75 min 90 min 120 min 180 min
duration
Mean 22.81 28.74 32.90 36.21 39.01 41.45 45.63 52.23
Standard
7.85 9.89 11.32 12.46 13.42 14.26 15.69 17.97
deviation

69
Considering, 5-year return period,
Table 4.5.3 Computation using Gumbel Distribution Method
[Table 3.15, Manual on storm water drainage systems, CPHEEO (2019)]
15 30 45 60 75 90 120 180
min min min min min min min min
Mean X 22.81 28.74 32.90 36.21 39.01 41.45 45.63 52.23
Standard deviation
7.85 9.89 11.32 12.46 13.42 14.26 15.69 17.97
(σ)
6
α= 𝜎 6.12 7.71 8.82 9.71 10.46 11.12 12.24 14.01
π

u = X - 0.5772 α 19.28 24.29 27.81 30.61 32.97 35.04 38.56 44.14

T
yT = -ln [ln ] 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
T−1

XT = u + α yT 28.46 35.86 41.04 45.18 48.66 51.71 56.92 65.15

Intensity, mm/hr 113.83 71.71 54.73 45.18 38.93 34.48 28.46 21.72

Table 4.5.4 Duration Vs Intensity

Duration,
15 30 45 60 75 90 120 180
min
Intensity,
113.83 71.71 54.73 45.18 38.93 34.48 28.46 21.72
mm/hr

70
 IDF Curve for 5 year return period using Gumbel distribution method
120.00

110.00

100.00

90.00
Intensity in mm/hr

80.00

70.00

60.00

50.00

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190

Duration in min

Fig.4.5.1 IDF Curve for 5 year return period using Gumbel distribution method

4.5.2 Peak Runoff Determination

[Link] Peak Runoff Determination using IDF Curves by Gumbel Method
Considering, minimum limiting velocity of 0.8 m/s,
and, Runoff coefficient from SWAT model = 0.5,

71
 Table 4.5.5 Sub-basin wise Time of Concentrations and Peak flows for minimum
velocity
Sub- Sub- Distance of Time Time Intensity of Peak Peak
basin basin outlet from taken for taken rainfall flow = flow =
Area, hydraulically the for the corresponding 10 CIA, 10 CIA,
A, km2 remote remote remote to tc, mm/hr m3/hr m3/sec
point, m point to point to
reach reach
outlet, tc outlet, tc
[sec] [min]
1 2.222 2025 2531.25 42.19 58 64438 17.90
2 17.47 945 1181.25 19.69 94 821090 228.08
3 1.729 2385 2981.25 49.69 50 43225 12.01
4 14.88 1185 1481.25 24.69 73 543120 150.87
5 11.87 2235 2793.75 46.56 55 326425 90.67
6 1.773 1680 2100.00 35.00 63 55849.5 15.51
7 5.346 233 290.63 4.84 125 334125 92.81
8 8.446 1770 2212.50 36.88 65 274495 76.25
9 2.754 2198 2746.88 45.78 56 77112 21.42
10 1.957 2325 2906.25 48.44 55 53817.5 14.95
11 3.565 4193 5240.63 87.34 38 67735 18.82

Total peak flow = 739.29 m3/sec

Considering, average limiting velocity of 1.9 m/s,

and, Runoff coefficient from SWAT model = 0.5,

72
Table 4.5.6 Sub-basin wise Time of Concentrations and Peak flows for average velocity
Sub- Sub- Distance of Time Time Intensity of Peak Peak
basin basin outlet from taken for taken rainfall flow = flow =
Area, hydraulically the for the corresponding 10 CIA, 10 CIA,
2
A, km remote remote remote to tc, mm/hr m3/hr m3/sec
point, m point to point to
reach reach
outlet, tc outlet, tc
[sec] [min]
1 2.222 2025 1065.79 17.76 100.0 111100 30.86
2 17.47 945 497.37 8.29 118.0 1030730 286.31
3 1.729 2385 1255.26 20.92 95.0 82127.5 22.81
4 14.88 1185 623.68 10.39 115.0 855600 237.67
5 11.87 2235 1176.32 19.61 96.0 569760 158.27
6 1.773 1680 884.21 14.74 104.0 92196 25.61
7 5.346 233 122.37 2.04 130.0 347490 96.53
8 8.446 1770 931.58 15.53 100.0 422300 117.31
9 2.754 2198 1156.58 19.28 96.5 132880.5 36.91
10 1.957 2325 1223.68 20.39 95.0 92957.5 25.82
11 3.565 4193 2206.58 36.78 67.0 119427.5 33.17
Total peak flow = 1071.27 m3/sec

73
4.5.2. Peak Runoff determination from IDF Curves by Log Pearson Type III method
Table 4.5.7 Computation using Log Pearson Type III method
15 30 45 60 75 90 120 180
min min min min min min min min
Mean, Z 3.07 3.30 3.43 3.53 3.60 3.67 3.76 3.90
Standard deviation,
0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36 0.36
σ
Kz 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.64
ZT = Z + Kz σ 3.30 3.53 3.66 3.76 3.83 3.89 3.99 4.12

XT = exp (z + Kz
26.98 33.99 38.91 42.83 46.14 49.03 53.96 61.77
σ)
Intensity, mm/hr 107.92 67.99 51.88 42.83 36.91 32.69 26.98 20.59
Note: Kz is frequency factor which is a function of recurrence interval T and coefficient of
skewness Cs. Kz values are adopted from Table 3.16 of manual on storm water drainage
systems, CPHEEO (2019 related to return period of 5 years and exceedance probability of
0.2.
Table 4.5.8 Duration Vs Intensity
Duration,
15 30 45 60 75 90 120 180
mm
Intensity,
107.92 67.99 51.88 42.83 36.91 32.69 26.98 20.59
mm/hr

74
 IDF Curve for 5 year return period using Log Pearson Type III distribution method
120.00

110.00

100.00

90.00

80.00
Intensity in mm/hr

70.00

60.00

50.00

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190

Duration in min

Fig.4.5.2 IDF Curve for 5 year return period using Log Pearson Type III distribution
method

Considering, minimum limiting velocity of 0.8 m/s,

and, Runoff coefficient from SWAT model = 0.5,

75
 Table 4.5.9 Sub-basin wise Time of Concentrations and Peak flows for minimum
velocity
Sub- Sub- Distance of Time Time Intensity of Peak Peak
basin basin outlet from taken for taken rainfall flow = flow =
Area, hydraulically the for the corresponding 10 CIA, 10 CIA,
A, km2 remote remote remote to tc, mm/hr m3/hr m3/sec
point, m point to point to
reach reach
outlet, tc outlet, tc
[sec] [min]
1 2.222 2025 2531.25 42.19 56 62216 17.28
2 17.47 945 1181.25 19.69 88 768680 213.52
3 1.729 2385 2981.25 49.69 50 43225 12.01
4 14.88 1185 1481.25 24.69 86 639840 177.73
5 11.87 2235 2793.75 46.56 57 328295 93.97
6 1.773 1680 2100.00 35.00 60 53190 14.78
7 5.346 233 290.63 4.84 135 360855 100.24
8 8.446 1770 2212.50 36.88 60 253380 70.38
9 2.754 2198 2746.88 45.78 54 74358 20.66
10 1.957 2325 2906.25 48.44 50 48925 13.59
11 3.565 4193 5240.63 87.34 32 57040 15.84
Total peak flow = 750 m3/sec
Considering, average limiting velocity of 1.9 m/s,
and, Runoff coefficient from SWAT model = 0.5,

76
Table 4.5.10 Sub-basin wise Time of Concentrations and Peak flows for average velocity
Sub- Sub- Distance of Time Time Intensity of Peak Peak
basin basin outlet from taken for taken rainfall flow = flow =
Area, hydraulically the for the corresponding 10 CIA, 10 CIA,
2
A, km remote remote remote to tc, mm/hr m3/hr m3/sec
point, m point to point to
reach reach
outlet, tc outlet, tc
[sec] [min]
1 2.222 2025 1065.79 17.76 100.0 111100 30.86
2 17.47 945 497.37 8.29 115.0 1004525 279.03
3 1.729 2385 1255.26 20.92 90.0 77805 21.61
4 14.88 1185 623.68 10.39 110.0 818400 227.33
5 11.87 2235 1176.32 19.61 78.0 462930 128.59
6 1.773 1680 884.21 14.74 95.0 84217.5 23.39
7 5.346 233 122.37 2.04 130.0 347490 96.53
8 8.446 1770 931.58 15.53 98.0 413854 114.96
9 2.754 2198 1156.58 19.28 90.5 124618.5 34.62
10 1.957 2325 1223.68 20.39 90.0 88065 24.46
11 3.565 4193 2206.58 36.78 57.0 101602.5 28.22

Total peak flow = 1009.61 m3/sec

4.5.3 Peak runoff determination from entire study
Following table shows peak runoff value that can be adopted from various models and studies
i.e. SWAT model, SWMM model and IDF curves by using Gumbel and log Pearson Type III
distribution method.

77
 Table 4.5.11 Peak Runoff from various models and studies
[Link]. Model / Study Peak Remarks
Runoff,
m3/s
SWAT Model with actual Period of simulation – From 01-
1 191.28
data Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
SWAT Model with projected Period of simulation – From 01-
2 140.04
data Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050
with 9.52% Impervious Area, zero
percentage Zero Depression
3 SWMM Model 207.17
Impervious Area and Evaporation
from Monthly averages option
IDF Curves based on With Maximum Annual series for
Gumbel‟s method various durations such as 15 min,
4 1071.27
[considering average limiting 30 min etc
velocity 1.9 m/s]
IDF Curves based on log With Maximum Annual natural
Pearson Type III distribution log series for various durations
5 1009.61
[considering average limiting such as 15 min, 30 min etc
velocity 1.9 m/s]

Log Pearson type III distribution is widely used for frequency analysis for stream flows and
can also be used for rainfall. The values obtained by Log Pearson type III distribution is more
satisfactory as it has three-parameter distribution that considers mean, standard deviation, and
skewness of data series. Hence, peak runoff value of 1009.61 m3/s is adopted for efficient
integrated stormwater management including re-use from various models and studies results.

78
4.6 Reuse of Stormwater Study
Following are the various options for re-use and efficient management of stormwater in
excess of flow i.e. 20.51 m3/s which is considered to flow through the being developed
underground network for proposed Amaravati city of Andhra Pradesh.
4.6.1 Stormwater management through canal system
Following tables indicate peak runoff through various sub-basins for periods of simulation
with actual and projected data
Table 4.6.1 Peak Runoff Rate for period of simulation from 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
Sub-basin Peak Runoff, m3/s
1 5.64
2 48.30
3 4.54
4 36.89
5 32.46
6 4.64
7 14.75
8 23.12
9 7.58
10 5.25
11 8.11
Total peak runoff from entire catchment = 191.28 m3/sec

Table 4.6.2 Peak Runoff Rate for period of simulation from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050
Sub-basin Peak Runoff, m3/s
1 4.15
2 35.30
3 3.35
4 27.28
5 23.46
6 3.39
7 10.64
8 16.94
9 5.55
10 3.87
11 6.11
Total peak runoff from entire catchment = 140.04 m3/sec

To reuse stormwater available as surface runoff for irrigation purpose within the considered
study area i.e. proposed Amaravati city of Andhra Pradesh, the following canal section may
be adopted.
4.6.2 Design of Canal Section for reuse of stormwater available
From sub-basin 2 for period of simulation from 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014,
Maximum peak runoff from SWAT Model = 48.30 m3/s,
Discharge considered to allow through the underground box section = 20.51 m3/s
[Total runoff from entire catchment]
79
Difference of discharge / peak runoff = 48.30 – 20.51 = 27.79 m3/s ≈ 28.00 m3/s
This difference of runoff can be made to flow through an openchannel with the following
design section
Consider, most economical trapezoidal channel,
Side slopes, n = 0.5

1
d n

Fig.4.6.1 Trapezoidal Canal Section

Assume,
Bed width of the channel, b = 3.9 m,
For Most economical trapezoidal section,
b+2nd
= d n2 + 1 (4.5)
2

3.9+2 0.5xd
= d 0.52 + 1
2
3.9 + d = 2.236 d
d = 3.16 m
Depth of flow in the channel, d = 3.16 m
Area of cross section, A = (b+nd) d = 17.28 m2

1
Assume, Slope of the channel, S = = 0.001
1000
As per Table 5.1 of Manual on Storm Water Drainage, CPHEEO (2019),
Manning's N for earth in ordinary condition = 0.025,
For most efficient [economical] trapezoidal section,
d 3.16
Hydraulic mean radius, R = 2 = = 1.58 m
2
1 2 1
Using Manning‟s Equation, Velocity of flow, V = R 3 S 2 (4.6)
N
1 2 1
=  1.58 3  0.001 2
0.011
V = 1.71 m/s
Discharge carrying capacity of the channel, Q = A  V = 17.28  1.71 = 29.63 m3/s >
Discharge required = 28.00 m3/s OK
Thus, provide, An openchannel with dimensions as
80
Bed width, b = 3.9 m
Depth of flow, d = 3.16 m,
1
Slope, S = , Free board = 0.6 m
1000
4.6.3 Stormwater management through various LID control options for each sub-basin
Considered,
Area of each LID unit = 2 acres = 8093.7 m2
Surface width per unit = 500 m
Percentage initially saturated = 0, Percentage of Non-LID impervious area treated = 95%
Percentage of Non-LID pervious area treated = 95%
Total Peak Runoff from No LID [with 9.52% Impervious Area, zero percentage Zero
Depression Impervious Area and Evaporation from Monthly averages] Option = 207.17 m3/s
--- Option (1)

Table 4.6.3 Comparison of various LID Control Options for Runoff Reduction
Percentage of total
Description of LID Total Peak Runoff runoff reduction
LID Control Option
Control Option [cumecs] [Link] NO LID
Option (1)
with 60% Impervious
Area, 60% Zero
Bio- Retention Depression
4.5 97.83
Cell Impervious Area,
Bio- Retention Cell
for 40% Area
with 50% Impervious
Area, 50% Zero
Bio- Retention Depression
5.28 97.45
Cell Impervious Area,
Bio-Retention Cell
for 50% Area
With 50%
Impervious Area,
50% Zero
Infiltration Trench Depression 3.52 98.30
Impervious Area and
50% Area with
Infiltration Trench
Thus, provide any of the above mentioned LID control options for efficient stormwater
management in sub-basins 2, 4 and 5 where peak runoff exceeds the value of 20.51 m3/s.
However, as the peak runoff from IDF curves by log Pearson Type III method is 1009.61
m3/s, following options needs to be adopted as part of efficient and innovative integrated
stormwater management for proposed Amaravati city.

Adopting peak runoff from IDF curves by Log Person Type III method,
81
[Manual on Storm Water Drainage Systems, CPHEEO (2019)]
For average limiting velocity = 1.9 m/s
Considering, Peak runoff from entire catchment from method = 1009.61 m3/s (4.7)
Providing, Bio-Retention Cell LID option with 60% Impervious Area, 60% Zero Depression
Impervious Area, Bio- Retention Cell for 40% Area for each sub-catchment,
Reduction in peak runoff = 207.17 m3/s [Peak runoff from SWMM Model]  97.83%
= 202.67 m3/s (4.8)
Considering, Design water carrying capacity of stormwater network = 23 m3/s (4.9)

Thus, Remaining or Available stormwater discharge for reuse = (4.7) – [(4.8) + (4.9)]
= 1009.61 – [202.67+23]
= 783.94 m3/s (4.10)
4.6.4 OPTION 1: Providing, available stormwater for irrigation purpose,
We know, proposed area of Amaravati city = 217.5 km2 = 217.5  106 m2 = 217.5  102 ha
Adopting, 25% of Amaravati city proposed area for irrigation,
Area available for irrigation = 217.5  102  25 % = 5437.5 ha

Base period ,B
We know, Duty, D = 8.64  (4.11)
Depth of water ,∆

Assume, Base period, B = 360 days

Ignoring, Depth of water available, Δavailable = 27.62 mm [Source: Revap from shallow aquifer
from Hydrologic cycle diagram from SWAT Model for period of simulation from 01-Jan-
1982 to 31-Jul-2014 with actual data]
Assume, Depth of water required, Δreqd. = 1000 mm = 1 m
360
Duty available, D = 8.64  = 3110.4 ha/cumec
1
Area under irrigation ,A 5437 .5
Thus, discharge required, Q = = = 1.75 m3/s
Duty available ,D 3110 .4

Considering, 20% losses in the canal system,

1.75
Discharge required for irrigation, Q = = 2.19 m3/s
0.8
Adopting,
Discharge carrying capacity of the channel, Q = A  V = 17.28  1.71 = 29.63 m3/s
with the following dimensions.
An openchannel as most efficient trapezoidal section with the dimensions as
Bed width, b = 3.9 m
Depth of flow, d = 3.16 m,

82
 1
Slope, S =
1000
Free board = 0.6 m
As number of villages integrated with proposed Amaravati city are 29,
Thus, providing above described canal section as most efficient and/or economical
trapezoidal section in all the 29 number of villages as SEPARATE CANAL(S) which may
provide stormwater for various purposes as mentioned below
i. Irrigation or drinking water after treatment or any other required purposes such as
gardening, industrial or commercial needs etc in the particular village
ii. Irrigation in any other area
iii. Discharge water to nearby Krishna river
Therefore, total water made available for 29 number of villages = 29  29.63 = 859.27 m3/s >
783.94 m3/s = Remaining or Available stormwater discharge for re-use.

4.6.5 OPTION 2: Providing storage retention ponds as extended detention ponds / rain
gardens in 29 villages and 2 towns of proposed Amaravati city,
From eq. (4.10),
Remaining or Available stormwater discharge for re-use = 783.94 m3/s,
Considering 1 hour detention time,
Remaining or Available stormwater volume for re-use = 783.94  3600 = 2822184 m3
For each village or town,
2822184
Remaining or Available stormwater volume for re-use per village/town =
31

= 91038.19 m3
Considering 0.25 acre of land for each storage pond,
Allowing 1 m depth of stormwater for storage,
We know, 1 acre = 4046.86 m2
Thus, 0.25 acre = 4046.86  0.25 = 1011.72 m2
Volume of stormwater that can be stored = 1011.72  1 = 1011.72 m3
91038 .19
Number of stormwater retention ponds per village/town = = 89.98 ≈ 90
1011 .72
Thus, provide 90 number of stormwater retention ponds which may act as rain gardens by
developing ponds as suitable landscape gardens.
i.e. 22.5 acres of land in each village / town is to be allocated for sustainable and/or resilient
stormwater management in regard to developing and maintaining rain gardens as storage
ponds. This storage pond in each village/town may serve as reservoir for intermittent water
supply after proper treatment and disinfection to be decided based on the quality of storm
83
[raw] water and the period of its storage in the tank. However, since this is related to safety of
public health before using for drinking purposes as a last resort, the suitable boiling / treating
through RO process/ disinfection of storm water to be carried out as per local government
guidelines / National Manual on water supply and treatment. This stored stormwater may also
be utilized for various water needs such as industrial, irrigation etc as intermittent source.
4.6.6 OPTION 3 with Option 1 or Option 2: In-situ storage / percolation within or
around premises [Rain water harvesting System]
Efficient stormwater management within or around premises which is commonly known as
“Rain water harvesting techniques” for each premises include but not limited to the following
i. Roof top rain water collection potential
ii. Conveyance system
iii. Size of rain water pipes for roof drainage
iv. Percolation of runoff into ground
v. Percolation pits
vi. Percolation trenches
vii. Recharge wells
Guidelines, specifications and/or recommendations of manual on storm water drainage
systems, CPHEEO (2019) may be adopted to these various in-situ storage / percolation within
or around premises for sustainable and/or resilient rain water harvesting system.
This option i.e. option 3 must be provided with before mentioned option(s) 1 or 2. However,
the attenuation of peak runoff due to the provision of this option i.e. various in-situ storage /
percolation provisions within or around premises has not been considered as part of efficient
stormwater management or re-use of available stormwater for proposed Amaravati city.
Thus, above detailed options will affirm the re-use of available stormwater based on peak
flow from IDF curves by Log Person Type III method which is governing peak runoff from
various models and/or studies performed for sustainable and/or resilient innovative integrated
stormwater management for the proposed Amaravati city.
4.7 Water Quality Analysis
The impacts of proposed urbanization on surface water quality of receiving waters in the
vicinity are a special geographical feature parametric study. The application of long-term
water quality data of various tracers and their trend analysis is scarcely available. Also, the
application of programming tool such as R programming with advanced package
“modifiedmk” for modified version(s) of Mann-Kendall test for trend analysis of various
parameters affecting water quality with features of bootstrapping, bias correction and pre-
whitening perhaps is not carried in much detail. To build on existing knowledge and to fill
gaps as described, the present study is aimed at determination of impacts of urbanization on
84
quality of receiving waters. Also, application of HEC-RAS software for simulation,
assessment of trends of parameters characteristics associated with surface water quality of
Krishna River with regard to tolerance limits are set objectives of the present study.
4.7.1 Data Considered

Long-term surface water quality data of Krishna River at Vijayawada, nearby chosen study
area in the form of concentration of numerous parameters as made available by Central Water
Commission, CWC through WRIS [Water Resources Information Systems], their portals and
on requisition is considered for the present study. Surface water quality data of various
parameters considered are of DO [dissolved oxygen], Mg [Magnesium], Al [Aluminium],
Alkalinity-Phenolphthalein, Biological/Biochemical Oxygen Demand, Cl [Chloride], CO3,
average total dissolved solids, Fe [Iron], Total Hardness, K [Potassium], Na [Sodium], NH3
[Ammonia], Orthophosphate, pH, SAR [Sodium Absorption Ratio], Total Alkalinity, NO3,
Ca [Calcium] and few other for different time periods.
4.7.2 Time series plots of various parameters

Following are the time series plots of various parameters i.e. figs. 4.7.1 to 4.7.17 are from
simulation results using HEC-RAS software prior to urbanization in the study area i.e. up to
2013 year.

120
100
DO 80
60
Sat., mg/l 40
20
0

Time
Fig. 4.7.1 Time series plot of DO
Saturation
60
50
40
Cl, mg/l 30
20
10
0
02-Jul-80

02-Jul-92

02-Jul-04
02-Jul-84
02-Jul-88

02-Jul-96
02-Jul-00

02-Jul-08
02-Jul-12

Time
Fig. 4.7.2 Time series plot of Cl
85
 Al,
mg/l

mg/l
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
1.4

0
1

02-Jan-72

0
5
10
CO3, 15
20
25
30
02-Jul-80 02-Jan-74

0
0.05
Fe, mg/l 0.15
0.25

0.1
0.2
0.3
02-Jan-72 02-Jul-85 02-Jan-76

02-Jan-77 02-Jan-78
02-Jul-90
02-Jan-80
02-Jan-82
02-Jul-95 02-Jan-82
02-Jan-87

CO3
Time
02-Jul-00 02-Jan-84

Time
02-Jan-92
Time

02-Jul-05 02-Jan-86
02-Jan-97
02-Jan-88
02-Jan-02 02-Jul-10
02-Jan-90

Fig. 4.7.5 Time series plot of

02-Jan-07

86
Fig. 4.7.7 Time series plot of Fe
02-Jan-92
Fig. 4.7.3 Time series plot of Al

02-Jan-12
02-Jan-94
02-Jan-96

Total
DO, mg/l
Mg,

mg/l
mg/l

Hardness,
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
15
20
25
30
35

0
5

100
120
140
160
180
200

0
20
40
60
80
02-Jul-80
02-Jul-80
02-Jul-84
02-Jul-84
02-Jul-88 02-Jul-88

02-Jul-92 02-Jul-92
Time

02-Jul-96 02-Jul-96

Hardness
Time

Time
02-Jul-00 02-Jul-00

02-Jul-04 02-Jul-04
02-Jul-08 02-Jul-08
Fig. 4.7.6 Time series plot of DO

Fig. 4.7.8 Time series plot of Total

02-Jul-12
Fig. 4.7.4 Time series plot of Mg

02-Jul-12
 pH
mg/l
NH3,

10

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
K, mg/l

02-Jan-72
02-Nov-81
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

02-Jan-77
02-Nov-85 02-Sep-80
02-Jan-82
02-Jan-87 02-Nov-89 02-Sep-85

02-Jan-92 02-Nov-93 02-Sep-90

Time
02-Jan-97 02-Nov-97 02-Sep-95

Time
Time
02-Jan-02 02-Nov-01
02-Sep-00
02-Jan-07 02-Nov-05
02-Sep-05
02-Nov-09

Fig. 4.7.11 Time series plot of NH3

02-Jan-12

87
02-Sep-10

Fig. 4.7.13 Time series plot of pH

Fig. 4.7.9 Time series plot of K

02-Nov-13

mg/l
Ortho-
phosphate,

0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.12
0.14
0.16

0.1
Na,
mg/l

02-Jan-72

0.5
SAR 1.5
2.5

0
1
2
3
10
20
30
40
50
60
70

02-Sep-80 02-Jan-76
02-Sep-84 02-Jan-80 02-Sep-80

02-Sep-88 02-Jan-84 02-Sep-85

02-Sep-92 02-Jan-88 02-Sep-90
02-Sep-96 02-Jan-92
02-Sep-95

SAR
Time

Time
Time

02-Sep-00 02-Jan-96
02-Sep-00
02-Jan-00
02-Sep-04
02-Jan-04 02-Sep-05
02-Sep-08
02-Jan-08 02-Sep-10

Fig.4.7.14 Time series plot of

02-Sep-12
02-Jan-12
Fig. 4.7.10 Time series plot of Na

Fig.4.7.12 Time series plot of Orthophosphate

 300
0.0014
250
0.0012
Total 200
0.001
Alkalinity, 150
NO3, 0.0008
mg/l 100
mg/l 0.0006
50 0.0004
0 0.0002

02-Jul-80

02-Jul-84

02-Jul-88

02-Jul-92

02-Jul-96

02-Jul-00

02-Jul-04

02-Jul-08

02-Jul-12
0

02-Oct-86

02-Oct-01
02-Oct-81

02-Oct-91
02-Oct-96

02-Oct-06
02-Oct-11
Time
Fig.4.7.15 Time series plot of Total Alkalinity Time
Fig. 4.7.16 Time series plot of
NO3
45
40
35
30
Ca, 25
mg/l 20
15
10
5
0
02-Jul-80
02-Jul-84
02-Jul-88
02-Jul-92
02-Jul-96
02-Jul-00
02-Jul-04
02-Jul-08
02-Jul-12

Time
Fig. 4.7.17 Time series plot of Ca

From the above figs. 4.7.1 to 4.7.17, it is found that DO saturation has a standard deviation of
7.8 mg/l during Jun-1991 to Dec-2013 period of simulation. Mg has a standard deviation in
its concentration 2.88 mg/l during Jul1980 to Dec-2013 period while Al having a standard
deviation of 0.32 mg/l during Jan-1972 to Dec-1997. Chlorides were having significant
variation in their concentration even with a considerable drop from Jul-2008 which is the
similar case with CO3. DO was in a continuous reduction phase in its value from Jun-1991
and become constant towards Jun-2012. Fe was continuously increasing during the period
Jan-1972 to Jan-1982 and then fluctuating in its concentration up to Jan-2007 and further at a
reduction phase. Total hardness had a varied concentration within the period Jul-1080 to Jul-
2008 and further with a flatter reduction up to the period Jul-2012. K has undergone
significant decrease during Sep-1980 to Sep-1990 and further with a considerable variation
followed by a flatter reduction towards Sep-2010. Na has a large variation during the period
Sep-1980 to Sep-2010 period of simulation which is the similar condition with NH3 during
the period Nov-1981 to Nov-2001. pH was slightly varying and increasing during the period
Jan-1982 to Jan-2012 period. SAR was largely varying during Sep-1980 to Sep-2012 which is
the case with NO3 during Oct-1981 to Oct-2011. Total alkalinity was varying moderately
88
during Jul-1984 to Jul-2008 period. Ca was continuously increasing in its concentration
Jul1980 to Jul-2012 with intermittent fluctuations.

Onset of
3 urbanization
Prior to urbanization
2.5
2
Biochemical
Oxygen 1.5
Demand, 1
mg/l 0.5
0
Aug-04

Aug-18
Aug-96

Aug-98

Aug-00

Aug-02

Aug-06

Aug-08

Aug-10

Aug-12

Aug-14

Aug-16
Time
Fig. 4.7.18 Time series plot Biochemical Oxygen Demand

Onset of
Prior to urbanization urbanization
9
8
7
DO, mg/l 6
5
4
3
Jun-95
Jun-91
Jun-93

Jun-97
Jun-99
Jun-01
Jun-03
Jun-05
Jun-07
Jun-09
Jun-11
Jun-13
Jun-15
Jun-17

Time
Fig. 4.7.19 Time series plot of DO

Onset of
urbanization
8.8 Prior to urbanization
8.6
8.4
8.2
8
pH 7.8
7.6
7.4
7.2
7
Jan-75

Jan-84
Jan-72

Jan-78
Jan-81

Jan-87
Jan-90
Jan-93
Jan-96
Jan-99
Jan-02
Jan-05
Jan-08
Jan-11
Jan-14
Jan-17

Time
Fig.4.7.20 Time series plot of pH

89
 Prior to Onset of
urbanization urbanization
18000
16000
14000
Total 12000
coliform, 10000
MPN/100 8000
ml 6000
4000
2000
0
Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18
Time
Fig.4.7.21 Time series plot of total coliform

In Figs. 4.7.18 to 4.7.21, time series of various parameters are plotted and shown their
profiles during the period before urbanization i.e. up to 2013 year and the onset of
urbanization period i.e. from 2014 year onwards. In all the time series plots, there exists
discontinuity in profiles as data at those periods not available due to occurrence of floods and
dry river bed. Biochemical oxygen demand / biological oxygen demand has an average of
0.96 mg/l and a standard deviation of 0.21 mg/l prior to urbanization and with an average of
1.47 mg/l and a standard deviation of 0.73 mg/l at the onset of urbanization. DO has an
average of 6.89 mg/l and a standard deviation of 0.55 mg/l before urbanization and with an
average of 6.36 mg/l and a standard deviation of 1.14 mg/l at the onset of urbanization. pH
has an average of 8.01 and a standard deviation of 0.31 prior to urbanization and with an
average of 7.98 and a standard deviation of 0.36 at the onset of urbanization. Total coliform
has an average of 1325.5 MPN/100 ml and a standard deviation of 1257.27 MPN/100 ml
before urbanization and with an average of 7098.13 MPN/100 ml and a standard deviation of
6741.12 MPN/100 ml at the onset of urbanization.
Also, faecal coliform has an average of 458 MPN/100 ml and a standard deviation of 405.73
MPN/100 ml before urbanization and with an average of 3900 MPN/100 ml and a standard
deviation of 6387.39 MPN/100 ml at the onset of urbanization.
4.7.3 Trend Analysis of various parameters

Tables 4.7.1 to 4.7.6 present trend analysis and results of various parameters prior to and at
onset of urbanization i.e. prior to 2014 year and from 2014 year onwards. Trend analysis is
performed applying modified Mann-Kendall test, bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with
optional bias corrected pre-whitening to get accurate results.

90
 Table 4.7.1 Trend results of parameters prior to urbanization
Parameter Bias Bias Bias Bias Boot
corrected corrected corrected corrected strapped
pre- pre-whitened pre-whitened pre-whitened p
whitened Z Sen’s slope S Kendall’s
Tau
Al 1.887 1.049  10 -3
1.071  10 3
1.070  10-1 0.97
Alkalinity- 4.353 5.277  10 -3
8.249  10 3
1.637  10-1 1.00
Phenolphthalein
BCOD 4.884 2.675  10-3 2.048  103 3.070  10-1 1.00
Ca 12.564 2.395  10 -2
2.380  10 4
4.723  10-1 1.00
Cl 6.960 1.904  10-2 1.319  104 2.617 10-1 1.00
CO3 4.353 6.357  10-3 8.249  103 1.637  10-1 1.00
DO -11.508 -6.56910-3 -8.094  103 -6.056 10-1 0.001
DO [Sat] -13.698 -1.20310-1 -9.634103 -7.20810-1 0.001
-5 3
Fe -3.101 -3.51710 -5.49310 -1.19310-1 0.001
Hardness Total 9.528 6.78010-2 1.805104 3.58210-1 1.00
K 1.620 5.52510-4 2.984103 6.15010-2 0.94
Mg 1.140 1.69810-3 2.161103 4.28710-2 0.879
Na -7.841 -2.64810-2 -1.444104 -2.97610-1 0.001
-5 3
NH3 -2.875 -1.54410 -4.829x10 -1.10610-1 0.002
NO3 2.426 2.61810-7 4.275103 93410-2 0.993
Orthophosphate 2.204 0.095 10.000 1.000 1.00
-4 4
pH 13.739 8.14710 3.87910 4.51510-1 1.00
SAR -8.226 -1.21210-3 -1.515104 -3.12210-1 0.001
Temperature 5.05510-1 8.54410-4 7.340102 2.08310-2 0.684
Total Alkalinity -4.59210-1 -3.56610-3 -8.710102 -1.72810-2 0.335
Total Dissolved -0.388 -0.020 -294.000 -0.020 0.347
Solids

Table 4.7.2 Trend results of parameters prior to urbanization with minimal data

Parameter Z Sen‟s slope S Tau p

Total 0.000 83.000 1.000 0.167 1.00
Coliform
Faecal 0.000 38.000 1.000 0.167 1.00
Coliform
Turbidity 0.722 0.508 3.000 0.500 0.47

Table 4.7.3 Trend results of parameters at onset of urbanization

Parameter Bias Bias Bias Bias Boot
corrected corrected corrected corrected strapped p
pre-whitened pre-whitened pre-whitened pre-whitened
Z Sen‟s slope S Kendall‟s
Tau
Alkalinity- -0.112 0.000 -3.000 -0.029 0.439
Phenolphthalein
BOD 0.495 0.029 11.000 0.105 0.684
Ca -0.297 -0.086 -7.000 -0.067 0.352
COD 0.297 0.279 7.000 0.067 0.627
91
 Table 4.7.3 (Continued)
DO [Sat] 1.880 0.744 39.000 0.371 0.968
DO 0.693 0.045 15.000 0.143 0.729
F 1.188 0.012 25.000 0.238 0.882
Faecal 0.000 7.719 1.000 0.009 0.505
Coliform
K 0.447 0.009 10.000 0.095 0.685
Mg 0.297 0.122 7.000 0.067 0.605
Na 1.584 1.957 33.000 0.314 0.949
NH3-N 1.772 0.099 18.000 0.500 0.965
pH – Gen -1.584 -0.035 -33.000 -0.314 0.048
SAR 1.287 0.058 27.000 0.257 0.915
TDS 0.305 2.985 6.000 0.077 0.625
Temperature -0.990 -0.191 -21.000 -0.200 0.152
Total Alkalinity 1.485 1.835 31.000 0.295 0.933
Total Coliform -2.923 -1171.490 -60.000 -0.571 0.003

Table 4.7.4 Trend Analysis of parameters prior to urbanization

Parameter Characteristics of Sen’s Slope Parameter Characteristics Sen’s Slope

trend of trend
Al Insignificant 1.049  10-3 NH3 Significant -1.544 10-5
Increasing Trend Decreasing
Trend
Alkalinity- Insignificant 5.277  10-3 NO3 Insignificant 2.61810-7
Phenolphtha Increasing Trend Increasing
lein Trend
BCOD Insignificant 2.675  10-3 Ortho- Insignificant 0.095
Increasing Trend phosphate Increasing
Trend
Ca Insignificant 2.395  10-2 pH Insignificant 8.14710-4
Increasing Trend Increasing
Trend
Cl Insignificant 1.904  10-2 SAR Significant -1.21810-3
Increasing Trend Decreasing
Trend
CO3 Insignificant 6.35710-3 Temperature Insignificant 8.544x10-4
Increasing Trend Increasing
Trend
DO Significant -6.56910-3 Total Insignificant -3.56610-3
Decreasing Trend Alkalinity Decreasing
Trend
DO [Sat] Significant -1.20310-1 Total Insignificant -0.020
Decreasing Trend Dissolved Decreasing
Solids Trend
Fe Significant -3.51710-5 Total No Trend 83.000
Decreasing Trend Coliform
Hardness Insignificant 6.78010-2 Faecal No Trend 38.000
Total Increasing Trend Coliform
K Insignificant 5.52510-4 Turbidity Insignificant 0.508
Increasing Trend Increasing
Trend

92
 Table 4.7.4 (Continued)

Mg Insignificant 1.69810-3 Na Significant -2.64810-2

Increasing Trend Decreasing
Trend
Note: Characteristics of Trend at 95% confidence level

Table 4.7.5 Trend Analysis of parameters at onset of urbanization

Parameter Characteristics Sen’s Parameter Characteristics Sen’s
of trend Slope of trend Slope
Alkalinity- Insignificant 0.000 NH3-N Insignificant 0.099
Phenolphthalein Decreasing Increasing
Trend Trend
BOD Insignificant 0.029 pH – Gen Significant -0.035
Increasing decreasing
Trend Trend
Ca Insignificant -0.086 SAR Insignificant 0.058
Decreasing Increasing
Trend Trend
COD Insignificant 0.279 TDS Insignificant 2.985
Increasing Increasing
Trend Trend
DO [Sat] Insignificant 0.744 Temperature Insignificant -0.191
Increasing Decreasing
Trend Trend
DO Insignificant 0.045 Total Insignificant 1.835
Increasing Alkalinity Increasing
Trend Trend
F Insignificant 0.012 Total Significant -1171.490
Increasing Coliform decreasing
Trend Trend
Faecal No Trend 7.719 K Insignificant 0.009
Coliform Increasing
Trend
Mg Insignificant 0.122 Na Insignificant 1.957
Increasing Increasing
Trend Trend
Note: Characteristics of Trend at 95% confidence level

Trend results and analysis of various parameters prior to and at the inception of urbanization
is carried using R programming. Also, the characteristics of trend of different parameters
whether significant or insignificant trend, increasing or decreasing trend, magnitude of trend
using Sen‟s slope estimator before and during urbanization are assessed. It is found that trend
characteristics of most of the parameters are insignificant prior to and at the commencement
of urbanization.

93
 Table 4.7.6 Krishna river Surface Water Quality Trend Analysis at study area
(Source: CWC and BIS 2296-1982)

[Link]. Parameter Units Prior to Urbanization At start of urbanization Tolerance Limits

[Before 2014 year] [From 2014 year] as per BIS
standards
[For A,B,C and D
use class]
Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum
1 pH pH
7.2 8.57 6.5 8.7 6.5 - 8.5
units
2 Total mg/l
Dissolved 168 650 223 504 500 - 1500
Solids
3 Cl mg/l 20.5 56 0.8 107 250 - 600
4 Fe mg/l 0 0.24 0 1.6 0.3 – 50
5 Mg mg/l 9.36 28.67 12.7 31.9 100
6 BOD mg/l 0.49 1.61 0.2 2.7 2-3
7 DO mg/l 5.66 8.27 4 7.9 4-6
8 TCol- MPN/
2 2400 330 16000 50 - 5000
MPN 100 ml
9 FCol- MPN/ 40% of TCol-
2 800 80 16000
MPN 100 ml MPN
10 Total mg/l
74.33 174.88 121 245 300
Hardness

Note [Source: BIS 2296-1982]: Use Class A – Drinking water source without conventional
treatment but after disinfections
Use Class B – Outdoor bathing – Organised
Use Class C – Drinking water source with conventional treatment followed by disinfections
Use Class D – Propagation of wildlife, fisheries
From the above Table 6, it has been observed that due to urbanization, pH value is exceeded
the maximum allowable limit. Also, DO value is increased the maximum allowable limit than
set by BIS standards. Further, both coliforms i.e. total and faecal coliforms are become higher
in their count than tolerance limits both minimum and maximum values at the onset of
urbanization.
4.7.4 Impacts of urbanization on groundwater levels and quality

[Link]. Data Considered

Groundwater data i.e. level below ground level and various quality parameters data related to
the study area is adapted as available from WRIS [Water Resources Information System]
portal and groundwater and water audit department, Government of Andhra Pradesh state.
Groundwater level data is considered for the period 1996 - 2021. Groundwater quality data
of various parameters is considered for the period 2000 - 2020. However, as data is not

94
available for few parameters, F, K, Na, NO3, Residual Sodium Carbonate, SAR and total
alkalinity, period of trend analysis is considered for the period 2000 - 2018.
[Link] Results and discussion

Tables 4.7.7 to 4.7.10 present checks for significant serial or autocorrelation in groundwater
data, trend results, and characteristics of trends of various parameters.
Table 4.7.7 Check for Significant Autocorrelation
Parameter Upper Limit Lag-1 Lower Limit Existence of
Autocorrelation Significant
Coefficient Autocorrelation
Groundwater 0.218 -0.011 -0.262 False
Level
Ca 0.433 -0.050 -0.718 False
Cl 0.406 -0.070 -0.628 False
CO3 0.446 -0.308 -0.7797 False
F 0.433 0.120 -0.7185 False
HCO3 0.433 0.361 -0.7185 False
K 0.458 -0.680 -0.858 False
Mg 0.433 -0.106 -0.718 False
Na 0.458 0.179 -0.858 False
NO3 0.433 -0.184 -0.838 False
pH 0.406 0.211 -0.628 False
Residual 0.462 -0.645 -0.962 False
Sodium
Carbonate
SAR 0.462 -0.357 -0.962 False
SO4 0.433 0.251 -0.718 False
Total Alkalinity 0.442 0.780 -1.109 True
Total Hardness 0.433 -0.034 -0.718 False

Table 4.7.8 Trend Results

Parameter Mann-Kendall Sen‟s Slope p Value

Static, Z
Groundwater Level -0.477 -0.004 0.633
Ca -1.382 -4.325 0.167
Cl -1.789 -39.000 0.074
CO3 0.470 0.134 0.638
F 2.103 0.130 0.035
HCO3 0.124 10.571 0.901
K -0.376 -13.600 0.707
Mg 0.124 0.031 0.901
Na 0.376 24.250 0.707
NO3 -1.113 -20.350 0.265
pH -0.902 -0.030 0.367
Residual Sodium 0.245 1.475 0.806
Carbonate
SAR 0.735 0.376 0.462
SO4 -0.997 -13.225 0.319

95
 Table 4.7.8 (Continued)

Total Alkalinity 1.698 58.190 0.089

Total Hardness -1.247 -18.888 0.212

Table 4.7.9 Parameter wise Characteristics of Trend

Parameter Characteristics of Sen‟s Slope Remarks

Trend
Groundwater Level Insignificant -0.004 No Trend
Decreasing Trend
Ca Insignificant -4.325 No Trend
Decreasing Trend
Cl Insignificant -39.000 No Trend
Decreasing Trend
CO3 Insignificant 0.134 No Trend
Increasing Trend
F Significant Increasing 0.130 Increasing
Trend Trend
HCO3 Insignificant 10.571 No Trend
Increasing Trend
K Insignificant -13.600 No Trend
Decreasing Trend
Mg Insignificant 0.031 No Trend
Increasing Trend
Na Insignificant 24.250 No Trend
Increasing Trend
NO3 Insignificant -20.350 No Trend
Decreasing Trend
pH Insignificant -0.030 No Trend
Decreasing Trend
Residual Sodium Insignificant 1.475 No Trend
Carbonate Increasing Trend
SAR Insignificant 0.376 No Trend
Increasing Trend
SO4 Insignificant -13.225 No Trend
Decreasing Trend
Total Alkalinity Insignificant 58.190 No Trend
Increasing Trend
Total Hardness Insignificant -18.888 No Trend
Decreasing Trend

Table 4.7.10 Trend Results of Modified versions of Mann-Kendall Test for Total Alkalinity

Trend Test Z Sen‟s Slope

Nonparametric Block
Bootstrapped Spearman‟s
1.732
Rank Correlation
[Spearman (1904)]
Modified Mann-Kendall
Test for Serially Correlated
Data using the Hamed and 1.698 58.19
Rao (1998) Variance
Correction Approach
96
 Table 4.7.10 (Continued)
Modified Mann-Kendall
test for serially correlated
data using the Yue and 2.8728 58.19
Wang (2004) Variance
Correction Approach
Modified Mann-Kendall
test for serially correlated
data using the Yue and
Wang (2004) Variance 2.109 58.19
Correction Approach using
the Lag-1 Correlation
Coefficient Only
Mann-Kendall test of
prewhitened time series
data in presence of serial 1.044 58.19
correlation using the von
Storch(1995) approach
Spearman‟s Rank
Correlation Test [Spearman 1.732
(1904)]
Mann-Kendall trend test
applied to trend-free
prewhitened time series
0.000 58.19
data in presence of serial
correlation using Yue
(2002) approach

Trend results [Table 4.7.10] of total alkalinity reveal that it is having an insignificant
increasing trend with an increase of 3.23 mg/l per year.
Trend analysis [Tables 4.7.7 to 4.7.9] shows there is no serial or significant autocorrelation
exits for any groundwater parameters except for total alkalinity. The trend analysis for all
parameters including water level is carried at a significance level of 5%. For any trend, if it is
resulting as insignificant increasing or decreasing trend, it means there is No Trend [Table 4.7.9]. However,
groundwater level is having an insignificant decreasing trend at 5% significance level with a
decline of 0.152 mm per year. Ca is with an insignificant decreasing trend with a decrease of
0.21 mg/l per year. Cl is having an insignificant decreasing trend with a decrease of 1.86 mg/l
per year. CO3 is having an insignificant increasing trend with a decrease of 0.01 mg/l per
year. F is with a significant increasing trend with an increase of 0.01 mg/l per year. HCO3 is
having an insignificant increasing trend with an increase of 0.5 mg/l per year. K is having an
insignificant decreasing trend with a decrease of 0.72 mg/l per year. Mg is with an
insignificant increasing trend with an increase of 0.002 mg/l per year. Na is with an
insignificant increasing trend with an increase of 1.28 mg/l per year. NO3 is with an
insignificant decreasing trend with a decrease of 1.07 mg/l per year. pH is having an
insignificant decreasing trend with a decrease of 0.001 per year. Residual Sodium Carbonate
is with an insignificant increasing trend with an increase of 0.08 mg/l per year. SAR is having
97
an insignificant increasing trend with an increase of 0.02 % per year. SO4 is having an
insignificant decreasing trend with a decrease of 0.63 mg/l per year. Total alkalinity is having
an insignificant increasing trend with an increase of 3.06 mg/l per year. Total hardness is with
an insignificant decreasing trend with a decrease of 0.9 mg/l per year.
Changes in land use/land cover patterns, removal of vegetation and agriculture practice following
lands are modified at few areas are affecting groundwater levels and quality parameters as
urbanization is onset within the study area. Also, exploitation of ground water resources is the
key driver for trends in various groundwater parameters including water level. As
urbanization is commenced from the year 2014 for proposed city, existing ground surface is
becoming more impervious which is resulted in more surface runoff, less infiltration and
further less groundwater availability.
The present groundwater trend analysis of levels and quality is useful to assess trends in
groundwater parameters for any existing or proposed city using Mann-Kendall trend test,
Sen‟s slope estimator, and various modified versions of Mann-Kendall test and R
programming.

98
4.8 Results & Analysis
Following are the results and further analysis of various studies and models developed and/or
proposed for this present study.
4.8.1 Hydrological modelling
[Link] Hydrological Modelling with actual data
Table 4.8.1: Sub-basin wise Maximum flow details
Sub-basin Date Inflow[m3/sec] Outflow[m3/sec] Evaporation[m3/sec]
1 20-Sep-1998 5.096 5.096 0.00002544
2 20-Sep-1998 39.91 39.91 0.000174
3 20-Sep-1998 3.886 3.886 0.00002808
4 20-Sep-1998 33.86 33.86 0.0003442
5 20-Sep-1998 26.99 26.99 0.0004538
6 20-Sep-1998 3.861 3.861 0.000006043
7 23-Jul-1989 11.59 11.59 0.00005362
8 20-Sep-1998 18.86 18.86 0.00004121
9 20-Sep-1998 6.656 6.656 0.00005728
10 20-Sep-1998 4.54 4.54 0.00009122
11 23-Jul-1989 7.707 7.707 0.0005224
As evaporation is negligible, Total runoff from entire catchment = 162.956 m3/sec

Fig. 4.8.1: Hydrologic Cycle diagram for simulation period from 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014

The hydrologic parameters from the above hydrologic cycle diagram i.e Fig.2 shows that all
the parameters such as percolation and that can contribute to runoff like ground water and
lateral flow are insignificant for runoff contribution. Thus, it is affirmed that total runoff from
entire catchment is 162.956 m3/sec for simulation period from 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
with actual data.
[Link] Hydrological Modelling with projected data

99
 Table 4.8.2: Sub-basin wise Maximum flow details
Sub-basin Date Inflow[m3/sec] Outflow[m3/sec] Evaporation[m3/sec]
1 08-Jul-2045 3.829 3.829 0.00006491
2 08-Jul-2045 30.09 30.09 0.0004453
3 08-Jul-2045 2.952 2.952 0.00007052
4 08-Jul-2045 25.56 25.56 0.0008732
5 08-Jul-2045 20.38 20.38 0.001153
6 08-Jul-2045 2.932 2.932 0.00001511
7 08-Jul-2045 8.691 8.691 0.00009146
8 08-Jul-2045 14.26 14.26 0.0001056
9 08-Jul-2045 4.961 4.961 0.0001447
10 08-Jul-2045 3.436 3.435 0.000227
11 08-Jul-2045 5.744 5.743 0.0008695
As evaporation is negligible, Total runoff from entire catchment = 122.833 m3/sec

Fig.4.8.2: Hydrologic Cycle diagram for simulation period from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050

The hydrologic parameters from the above hydrologic cycle diagram i.e Fig.3 shows that all
the parameters such as percolation and that can contribute to runoff like ground water and
lateral flow are insignificant for runoff contribution. Thus, it is affirmed that total runoff from
entire catchment is 122.833 m3/sec for simulation period from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050
with projected data.
Above results and hydrologic cycle diagrams of actual and projected data indicate that the
evaporation, and infiltration etc are negligible and runoff can be considered as outflow from
each sub-basin. Thus, total runoff from entire catchment is arrived as sum of runoff(s) from
all the 11 number of sub-basins corresponding to the each period of simulation.

100
[Link] SWAT Model Results Analysis
Determination of peak runoff rate is useful and necessary to find the runoff characteristics of
the catchment which will govern the stormwater management measures and/or practices to
make proposed Amaravati city as Water Sensitive City.
Peak runoff rate is computed for both the periods of simulation with actual and projected data
using modified rational formula as per SWAT Theoretical Documentation Version 2009.
The peak runoff results are presented in below Table 6 and 7 for period of simulation from
01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014 with actual data. Also, the peak runoff results are given in below
Table 8 and 9 for period of simulation from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050 with projected
data.
[Link].1 Modified Rational Formula [Neitsch et al., 2011]
As per SWAT Theoretical Documentation Version 2009, Modified Rational formula for
estimation of,
α tc Q surf Area
Peak flow = qpeak = (4.12)
3.6t conc

where, qpeak = peak runoff rate, m3/s,

Qsurf = the surface runoff (mm),
Area = sub-basin area (km2)
αtc = the fraction of daily rainfall that occurs during the time of concentration,
tconc = the time of concentration for the sub-basin (hr)

Table 4.8.3: Peak Runoff Rate for period of simulation from 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
HRU Sub- HRU Sub- Date Preci- Maximum Maximum
basin Area basin pitation surface average
km2 Area mm runoff velocity
km2 mm m/s
1 1 0.772 2.222 20-Sep-1998 252.5 219.492 2.761
6 2 0.069 17.47 20-Sep-1998 252.5 238.851 3.870
8 3 0.276 1.729 20-Sep-1998 252.5 227.027 1.484
10 4 0.644 14.88 20-Sep-1998 252.5 214.192 1.560
12 5 0.105 11.87 20-Sep-1998 252.5 236.304 1.915
21 6 0.296 1.773 20-Sep-1998 252.5 225.892 1.017
22 7 0.002 5.346 20-Sep-1998 252.5 238.436 4.550
27 8 0.048 8.446 20-Sep-1998 252.5 236.491 5.551
35 9 0.369 2.754 20-Sep-1998 252.5 237.918 2.182
40 10 0.221 1.957 20-Sep-1998 252.5 231.937 1.065
43 11 1.710 3.565 20-Sep-1998 252.5 196.471 1.071

101
 Table 4.8.4: Peak Runoff Rate for period of simulation from 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
Sub- Length of flow in Time of αtc, Sub-basin based
basin total Sub-basin, m concentration, tc, hr hr Peak Runoff, m3/s
1 2025 0.204 0.008 5.64
2 945 0.068 0.003 48.30
3 2385 0.446 0.019 4.54
4 1185 0.211 0.009 36.89
5 2235 0.324 0.013 32.46
6 1680 0.459 0.019 4.64
7 233 0.014 0.001 14.75
8 1770 0.089 0.004 23.12
9 2198 0.280 0.012 7.58
10 2325 0.606 0.025 5.25
43 4193 1.088 0.045 8.11
Total peak runoff from entire catchment = 191.28 m3/sec

Table 4.8.5: Peak Runoff Rate for period of simulation from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050
Sub- HRU Sub- Date Preci- Maximum Maximum
HRU basin Area basin pitation surface average
km2 Area mm runoff velocity
2
km mm m/s
1 1 0.772 2.222 08-Jul-2045 185.41 161.44 2.574
6 2 0.069 17.47 08-Jul-2045 185.41 174.59 1.348
8 3 0.276 1.729 08-Jul-2045 185.41 167.65 1.348
10 4 0.644 14.88 08-Jul-2045 185.41 158.41 1.389
12 5 0.105 11.87 08-Jul-2045 185.41 170.78 1.714
21 6 0.296 1.773 08-Jul-2045 185.41 165.046 0.911
22 7 0.002 5.346 08-Jul-2045 185.41 171.941 4.494
27 8 0.048 8.446 08-Jul-2045 185.41 173.317 5.371
35 9 0.369 2.754 08-Jul-2045 185.41 174.088 1.972
40 10 0.221 1.957 08-Jul-2045 185.41 170.831 0.974
43 11 1.710 3.565 08-Jul-2045 185.41 148.012 0.984

Table 4.8.6: Peak Runoff Rate for period of simulation from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050
Sub- Length of flow in Time of αtc, Sub-basin based
basin total Sub-basin, m concentration, tc, hr hr Peak Runoff, m3/s
1 2025 0.219 0.009 4.15
2 945 0.195 0.008 35.30
3 2385 0.491 0.020 3.35
4 1185 0.237 0.010 27.28
5 2235 0.362 0.015 23.46
6 1680 0.512 0.021 3.39
7 233 0.014 0.001 10.64
8 1770 0.091 0.004 16.94
9 2198 0.310 0.013 5.55
10 2325 0.663 0.028 3.87
43 4193 1.183 0.049 6.11
Total peak runoff from entire catchment = 140.04 m3/sec

102
4.8.2 Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Precipitation
[Link] Using high resolution monthly averages data
Following are the results of time period wise precipitation data of both historical [1951-2005]
and future projected [2006-2095] time periods for the considered study area.
Applying, bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias corrected pre-whitening
Table 4.8.7 Time Period wise Trend Results
Type of Time Bias corrected Bias corrected Bias corrected Bias corrected Boot
Time Period prewhitened prewhitened prewhitened S prewhitened strapp
Period Z Sen‟s slope Kendall‟s Tau -ed p
1951-1960 8.546e-01 2.099e-04 5.499e+03 2.130e-02 0.81
1961-1970 5.580e-01 8.289e-05 3.591e+03 1.391e-02 0.711
Historical 1971-1980 2.174e+00 4.339e-04 1.399e+04 5.419e-02 0.989
1981-1990 -1.047e+00 -2.116e-04 -6.739e+03 -2.611e-02 0.139
1991-2005 7.839e-01 6.757e-05 9.269e+03 1.594e-02 0.806
2006-2015 -6.498e-01 -9.917e-05 -4.177e+03 -1.618e-02 0.265
2016-2025 7.231e-01 1.005e-04 4.653e+03 1.803e-02 0.765
2026-2035 1.327e+00 1.694e-04 8.541e+03 3.309e-02 0.898
2036-2045 1.359e+00 1.764e-04 8.749e+03 3.389e-02 0.886
Projected
2046-2055 4.589e-01 4.860e-05 2.953e+03 1.144e-02 0.689
RCP 4.5
2056-2065 8.674e-02 8.954e-06 5.590e+02 2.166e-03 0.545
2066-2075 1.494e+00 1.897e-04 9.613e+03 3.724e-02 0.936
2076-2085 1.171e+00 1.359e-04 7.537e+03 2.920e-02 0.895
2086-2095 1.052e+00 1.080e-04 6.767e+03 2.622e-02 0.847

Considering, all historical precipitation data i.e. for time period 1951-2005,
Table 4.8.8 Historical Time Period Trend Results
For Historical data of Time Period - 1951 - 2005 Value
Bias corrected prewhitened Z -5.487e-01
Bias corrected prewhitened Sen‟s slope -7.663e-06
Bias corrected prewhitened S -4.557e+04
Bias corrected prewhitened Kendall‟s Tau -5.816e-03
Bootstrapped p 0.307

Considering, all projected precipitation data i.e. for time period 2006-2095,
Table 4.8.9 Projected RCP4.5 Time Period Trend Results
For Projected RCP4.5 data of Time Period - 2006 - 2095 Value
Bias corrected prewhitened Z -3.876e+00
Bias corrected prewhitened Sen‟s slope -1.867e-05
Bias corrected prewhitened S -6.739e+05
Bias corrected prewhitened Kendall‟s Tau -3.211e-02
Bootstrapped p 0.001

103
 Table 4.8.10 Time Period wise Trend Analysis
Time Period Characteristics of Trend Sen‟s Slope
1951-1960 Insignificant Increasing Trend 2.099e-04
1961-1970 Insignificant Increasing Trend 8.289e-05
1971-1980 Insignificant Increasing Trend 4.339e-04
1981-1990 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -2.116e-04
1991-2005 Insignificant Increasing Trend 6.757e-05
2006-2015 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -9.917e-05
2016-2025 Insignificant Increasing Trend 1.005e-04
2026-2035 Insignificant Increasing Trend 1.694e-04
2036-2045 Insignificant Increasing Trend 1.764e-04
2046-2055 Insignificant Increasing Trend 4.860e-05
2056-2065 Insignificant Increasing Trend 8.954e-06
2066-2075 Insignificant Increasing Trend 1.897e-04
2076-2085 Insignificant Increasing Trend 1.359e-04
2086-2095 Insignificant Increasing Trend 1.080e-04
Note: Characteristics of Trend at 95% confidence level

Average Sen‟s Slope = 1.01e-04 = 1.01  10-4 = 0.000101 = 0.0101 % with increasing trend
(4.13)
However, considering all historical time periods as one time period and all projected time
periods as another time period as shown in the following table.

Table 4.8.11 Historical and Projected Time Periods Trend Analysis

Time Period Characteristics of Trend Sen‟s Slope
1951-2005 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -7.663e-06
2006-2095 Significant Decreasing Trend -1.868e-05
Note: Characteristics of Trend at 95% confidence level

Average Sen‟s Slope = -1.32e-05 = -1.32  10-5 = - 0.0000132 = 0.00132 % with decreasing
trend. (4.14)

Thus, considering average of Sen‟s slope from (4.13) and (4.14),

Average Sen‟s Slope = 0.0000439 = 0.00439 % per month = 0.05268% per year = 0.5268%
per decade.
[Link] Using CORDEX daily precipitation data
Tables 4.8.12 and 4.8.13 present trend results and analysis using daily CORDEX daily data.

Table 4.8.12 Time Period wise Trend Results of CORDEX Daily Data
Type of Time Period Bias corrected Bias corrected Bias corrected Bias corrected Boot
Time prewhitened z prewhitened prewhitened S prewhitened strap
Period Sen‟s slope Kendall‟s Tau ped
p
1951-1960 2.603e-01 1.251e-06 1.916e+04 2.873e-03 0.54
Historical
1961-1970 -6.922e-01 -3.732e-06 -5.091e+04 -7.647e-03 0.21
104
 Table 4.8.12 Time Period wise Trend Results of CORDEX Daily Data (Continued)

1971-1980 1.073e+00 7.234e-06 7.898e+04 1.185e-02 0.87

1981-1990 -7.978e-01 -5.128e-06 -5.868e+04 -8.806e-03 0.2
1991-2005 -2.032e+00 -7.757e-06 -2.736e+05 -1.832e-02 0.02
2006-2015 -1.426e+00 -9.252e-06 -1.055e+05 -1.571e-02 0.07
2016-2025 -7.752e-01 -4.173e-06 -5.704e+04 -8.556e-03 0.17
2026-2035 -1.152e+00 -7.061e-06 -8.474e+04 -1.272e-02 0.14
2036-2045 3.690e-01 1.821e-06 2.715e+04 4.072e-03 0.68
2046-2055 -1.798e+00 -1.262e-05 -1.323e+05 -1.985e-02 0.04
RCP 4.5
2056-2065 -1.153e+00 -7.734e-06 -8.484e+04 -1.273e-02 0.1
2066-2075 -8.611e-01 -6.264e-06 -6.334e+04 -9.506e-03 0.16
2076-2085 -1.283e+00 -1.102e-05 -9.440e+04 -1.416e-02 0.11
2086-2095 -6.385e-01 -3.851e-06 -4.696e+04 -7.048e-03 0.28
2096-2099 -9.859e-01 -3.283e-05 -1.765e+04 -1.744e-02 0.25
2006-2015 5.369e-01 4.454e-06 3.972e+04 5.915e-03 0.72
2016-2025 1.116e-01 3.076e-07 8.212e+03 1.232e-03 0.55
2026-2035 -1.418e+00 -1.194e-05 -1.043e+05 -1.565e-02 0.07
2036-2045 -7.209e-01 -4.009e-06 -5.304e+04 -7.956e-03 0.31
2046-2055 -7.566e-01 -5.334e-06 -5.565e+04 -8.352e-03 0.29
RCP 8.5
2056-2065 -1.787e+00 -1.258e-05 -1.315e+05 -1.972e-02 0.01
2066-2075 7.300e-01 3.779e-06 5.369e+04 8.058e-03 0.74
2076-2085 -1.114e+00 -6.832e-06 -8.199e+04 -1.230e-02 0.15
2086-2095 -1.188e+00 -9.615e-06 -8.739e+04 -1.311e-02 0.06
2096-2099 -2.251e-01 -9.911e-07 -4.030e+03 -3.983e-03 0.42

Table 4.8.13 Time Period wise Trend Analysis of CORDEX Daily Data
Type of Time Time Period Characteristics of Trend Sen‟s Slope
Period
1951-1960 Insignificant Increasing Trend 1.251e-06
1961-1970 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -3.732e-06
Historical 1971-1980 Insignificant Increasing Trend 7.234e-06
1981-1990 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -5.128e-06
1991-2005 Significant Decreasing Trend -7.757e-06
2006-2015 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -9.252e-06
2016-2025 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -4.173e-06
2026-2035 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -7.061e-06
2036-2045 Insignificant Increasing Trend 1.821e-06
2046-2055 Significant Decreasing Trend -1.262e-05
RCP 4.5
2056-2065 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -7.734e-06
2066-2075 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -6.264e-06
2076-2085 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -1.102e-05
2086-2095 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -3.851e-06
2096-2099 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -3.282e-05
2006-2015 Insignificant Increasing Trend 4.454e-06
2016-2025 Insignificant Increasing Trend 3.076e-07
2026-2035 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -1.194e-05
2036-2045 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -4.009e-06
RCP 8.5 2046-2055 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -5.334e-06
2056-2065 Significant Decreasing Trend -1.258e-05
2066-2075 Insignificant Increasing Trend 3.779e-06
2076-2085 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -6.832e-06
2086-2095 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -9.615e-06
105
 2096-2099 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -9.911e-07
Average Sen‟s slope of historical data of 1951-2005 period is 1.63e-06 mm/year with
decreasing trend. Average Sen‟s slope of RCP 4.5 scenario of 2006-2099 period is 9.30e-06
mm/year with decreasing trend while average Sen‟s slope of RCP 8.5 scenario of 2006-2099
period is 4.28e-06 mm/year with decreasing trend.
[Link] Discussion of trend results of high resolution monthly average data
Historical and projected RCP 4.5 time periods i.e. during 1951-2005 and 2006-2095 are
considered respectively to assess trends of precipitation as an impact determination due to
climate change in the study area. It is found that precipitation time series is significantly auto-
correlated. Thus, there is a need to apply modified version of Mann-Kendall test. Although
various forms of modified Mann-Kendall [M-K] test are developed, bootstrapped Mann-
Kendall trend test with optional bias corrected pre-whitening is a most appropriate and
powerful technique with all advanced and error eliminating tool. This modified version of M-
K test can apply bias correction, pre-whitening and bootstrapping techniques to make time
series error free and results in most accurate trend analysis. To obtain most fitting trend
analysis of precipitation time series, this modified version of M-K test i.e. bootstrapped
Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias corrected pre-whitening is applied using R
programming “modifiedmk” package. For the trend analysis of precipitation time series of
historical and projected time periods, precipitation data is considered decade wise for most of
time series. Historical precipitation data is used starting from 1951-1960 and up to the period
1991-2005. Projected precipitation time series data is applied starting from 2006-2015 period
and up to 2086-2095 period. Characteristics of trend are assessed at 95% confidence level
which can give more reasonable trend results for both historical and projected time series of
precipitation. Characteristics of trend are also determined with a combined one historical time
series i.e. only one time series from 1951-2005 periods. Similarly, characteristics of trend are
assessed with only one projected time series i.e. 2006-2095 periods to compare trend results
from decade wise time series of precipitation. Trend analysis of precipitation time series of
both historical and projected periods shows that most of the trends are insignificant though
they are increasing or decreasing trends with decade wise data. However, with considering
precipitation time series as single set of historical and projected time series, it is observed that
historical time series follows insignificant decreasing trend. While projected precipitation
time series follows significant decreasing trend. Thus, to obtain further accurate trend results
of historical and projected time series, the averaging technique is applied both for decade
wise and single set results. Then, average Sen‟s slope is obtained as 0.0101 % with increasing
trend of decade wise data. However, average Sen‟s slope is obtained as 0.00132 % with

106
decreasing trend of single set data. Further, averaging of obtained trend characteristics of
decade wise and single data set indicate that average Sen‟s slope is 0.5268% per decade.
5.00E-04

4.00E-04

3.00E-04

2.00E-04

Sen's Slope 1.00E-04

0.00E+00

2026-2035
1951-1960
1961-1970
1971-1980
1981-1990
1991-2005
2006-2015
2016-2025

2036-2045
2046-2055
2056-2065
2066-2075
2076-2085
2086-2095
-1.00E-04

-2.00E-04

-3.00E-04
Time Period of Precipitation Data

Fig. 4.8.3 Sen‟s slope for time period wise precipitation time series
Sen‟s slope [Fig. 4.8.3] is obtained of various decade wise precipitation data from trend
analysis. Magnitude of trend from Sen‟s slope shows that significant variations in trend.
Sen‟s slope varies from 4.34e-04 to -2.12e-04.

0.00E+00
-2.00E-06 1951-2005 2006-2095
-4.00E-06
-6.00E-06
-8.00E-06 y = -1E-05x + 3E-06
Sen's Slope -1.00E-05 R² = 1
-1.20E-05
-1.40E-05
-1.60E-05
-1.80E-05
-2.00E-05
Time Period wise Precipitation Data

Fig. 4.8.4 Sen‟s slope for single set of historical and projected precipitation time series

Sen‟s slope of trends of time series of precipitation for historical and projected RCP 4.5
scenario periods as single set are obtained [Fig. 4.8.4]. Sen‟s slope magnitude is -7.66E-06
for 1951-2005 time period of historical precipitation time series while that for projected time
series for 2006-2095 time period is -[Link] is obtained that linear line best represents
trend of Sen‟s slope with regard to precipitation time series as single data set of both
historical and projected RCP4.5 scenario time periods. Linear equation as given in Fig. 4.8.4

107
shows relation between Sen‟s slope and precipitation during historical and projected time
periods with continuous trend analysis.
Also, the results obtained from trend analysis are validated using the observed time series of
precipitation of the region for the period from 01-Mar-1989 to30-Sep-2014 and the point data
of daily precipitation for the period from 03-Jan-1981 to 25-Feb-2020. Trend results with
these time series of precipitation are in very well agreement with that obtained from historical
and projected RCP 4.5 time series of precipitation from CCCR of IITM.

[Link]. Discussion of trend results of CORDEX daily data

Fig.4.8.5 presents time period wise variation of Sen‟s slope of CORDEX data.

1.00E-05
5.00E-06
0.00E+00
1951-1960
1971-1980
1991-2005
2016-2025
2036-2045
2056-2065
2076-2085
2096-2099
2016-2025
2036-2045
2056-2065
2076-2085
2096-2099
-5.00E-06
-1.00E-05
Sen's Slope
-1.50E-05
-2.00E-05
-2.50E-05
-3.00E-05
-3.50E-05 Time Period

Fig. 4.8.5 Sen‟s slope for decade wise precipitation time series of CORDEX data

6.00E-05
5.00E-05 y = -5E-05x + 0.000
R² = 1
4.00E-05

Sen's Slope 3.00E-05

2.00E-05
1.00E-05
0.00E+00
High-Resolution Monthly CORDEX Daily Data
Average Data

Data Frequency and Type

Fig. 4.8.6 Trends of Sen's slope on data frequency and
type for historical data of 1951-2005 period

108
 4.00E-05
3.50E-05 y = -3E-05x + 7E-05
3.00E-05 R² = 1
2.50E-05
Sen's Slope 2.00E-05
1.50E-05
1.00E-05
5.00E-06
0.00E+00
High-Resolution Monthly CORDEX Daily Data
Average Data

Data Frequency and Type

Fig. 4.8.7 Trends of Sen's slope on data frequency and
type for RCP 4.5 scenario projected data

Figs. 4.8.6 and 4.8.7 show variations of average Sen‟s slope with regard to data frequency
and type for historical and projected RCP 4.5 scenario data. It is observed that coefficient of
determination, R2 is 1 between high-resolution monthly averages precipitation data and
CORDEX daily precipitation data for average Sen‟s slope both for historical i.e. 1951-2005
period data and projected RCP 4.5 scenario data i.e. 2006-2099 period data [Figs. 4.8.6 and
4.8.7]. As R2 is 1, linear trend line equation is also presented in the corresponding figure
[Figs. 4.8.6 and 4.8.7].

[Link] Discussion of Innovative Trend Analysis

Innovative trend analysis (Zekai Sen, 2011) is a graphical method to find trend analysis of a
time series. Tables 4.8.14 to 4.8.19 give innovative trend analysis results of CORDEX
historical, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.
Table 4.8.14 Innovative Trend Analysis of Historical [1951-2005] Precipitation Data

Trend Slope Trend Indicator Remarks

-1.482e-06 -3.751e-02 Historical

Table 4.8.15 Trend Slope Results of Historical Precipitation Data at Various Confidence
Limits
Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit Remarks
-7.852e-07 7.852e-07 At 90 percent confidence level
-9.355e-07 9.355e-07 At 90 percent confidence level
-1.229e-06 1.229e-06 At 99 percent confidence level

109
Fig. 4.8.8 Trend Indicator Plot of Historical Precipitation Data of 1951-2005 time period

Table 4.8.16 Innovative Trend Analysis of RCP 4.5 [2006-2099] Scenario Precipitation Data
Trend Slope Trend Indicator Remarks
-8.338e-06 -3.395e-01 RCP 4.5

Table 4.8.17 Trend Slope Results of RCP 4.5 Scenario Precipitation Data at Various
Confidence Limits
Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit Remarks
-3.597e-07 3.597e-07 At 90 percent confidence
level
-4.286e-07 4.286e-07 At 95 percent confidence
level
-5.633e-07 5.632e-07 At 99 percent confidence
level

110
 Fig. 4.8.9 Trend Indicator Plot of RCP 4.5 Scenario Precipitation Data of 2006-2099 time
period

Table 4.8.18 Innovative Trend Analysis of RCP 8.5 [2006-2099] Scenario Precipitation Data
Trend Slope Trend Indicator Remarks
2.297e-05 9.427e-01 RCP 8.5

Table 4.8.19 Trend Slope Results of RCP 8.5 Scenario Precipitation Data at Various
Confidence Limits

Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit Remarks

-7.793e-07 7.793e-07 At 90 percent confidence
level
-9.285e-07 9.285e-07 At 95 percent confidence
level
-1.220e-06 1.220e-06 At 99 percent confidence
level

111
 Fig. 4.8.10 Trend Indicator Plot of RCP 8.5 Scenario Precipitation Data of 2006-2099 time
period

Results of innovative trend analysis of historical precipitation data of 1951-2005 time period
[Table 4.8.14] show that trend slope is -1.48e-06 mm/year i.e. decreasing trend. However,
at various confidence levels and corresponding confidence limits, trend slope obtained remain
insignificant [Table 4.8.15]. Also, innovative trend analysis of RCP 4.5 scenario precipitation
data of 2006-2099 time period [Table 4.8.16] show that trend slope is -8.34e-06 mm/year i.e.
decreasing trend. For various confidence levels, trend slope attained of RCP 4.5 scenario
remain insignificant [Table 4.8.17]. Further, innovative trend analysis of RCP 8.5 scenario
precipitation time series specifies that trend slope is 2.30e-05 mm/year with an increasing
trend [Table 4.8.17]. At various confidence limits, for RCP 8.5 scenario of CORDEX data,
trend obtained is insignificant. Also, obtained innovative trend results of CORDEX data of
historical, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are further validated with Figs. 4.8.8 to 4.8.10.
Figs. 4.8.8 to 4.8.10 are showing trends of data between first half and second half of time
series. If data points lie at 1:1 slope, then there is no trend, and if data points exist above 1:1
slope line, then there is positive trend and if data points lie below 1:1 slope line, then there is
negative trend.
[Link] Discussion of Innovative Trend Analysis using Wavelet-ANN hybrid
model
Wavelet-ANN [Artificial Neural Network] hybrid model of R package ‟WaveletANN‟
(Anjoy and Paul, 2017) is also applied to fit historical precipitation time series of CORDEX
112
daily data for 1951-2005 period by using hybrid Wavelet-ANN algorithm. Further, innovative
trend analysis (Zekai Sen, 2011) is carried on fitted historical precipitation time series from
Wavelet-ANN hybrid model.
Tables 4.8.20 and 4.8.21 provide innovative trend results of Wavelet-ANN fitted historical
precipitation time series of 1951-2005 period.

Table 4.8.20 Innovative Trend Analysis of fitted Historical [1951-2005] Precipitation Data
from Wavelet-ANN hybrid model
Trend Slope Trend Indicator Remarks
2.587e-06 6.679e-02 Historical – Wavelet -ANN

Table 4.8.21 Trend Slope Results of fitted Historical [1951-2005] Precipitation Data from
Wavelet-ANN hybrid model at Various Confidence Limits
Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit Remarks
-7.591e-07 7.591e-07 At 90 percent confidence
level
-9.045e-07 9.045e-07 At 95 percent confidence
level
-1.189e-06 1.189e-06 At 99 percent confidence
level

Fig. 4.8.11 Trend Indicator Plot of fitted Historical Precipitation Data of 1951-2005 time
period from Wavelet-ANN hybrid model
Fig.4.8.11 shows that there is no trend for historical precipitation data after fitting time series
using Wavelet-ANN hybrid model. Thus, trend results of historical precipitation time series
of CORDEX data are validated with Wavelet-ANN hybrid model application.
113
4.8.3 Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Temperature

Table 4.8.22 Check for Significant Autocorrelation - Temperature

Lag-1 Existence of
Description Upper Limit Autocorrelation Lower Limit Significant
Coefficient Autocorrelation
0.06 0.97 -0.06
Temperature True
Minimum 0.06 0.97 -0.06
True
Temperature
Maximum 0.06 0.95 -0.06 True
Temperature

Table 4.8.23 Temperature wise Trend Results

Type of Time Trend Test Sen‟s Correlation
Z
Temperature Period Slope Coefficient
Modified Mann-Kendall Test for
Serially Correlated Data using the
5.36e-01 6.31e-06
Hamed and Rao (1998) Variance
Correction Approach
1981- Modified Mann-Kendall Test for
Temperature
2021 Serially Correlated Data using the
8.63e-01 6.31e-06
Yue and Wang (2004) Variance
Correction Approach
Spearman’s Rank Correlation Test
1.09 0.009
[Spearman (1904), Lehman (1975)]
Minimum 1981- Spearman’s Rank Correlation Test
-1.19 -0.01
Temperature 2021
Maximum 1981- Spearman’s Rank Correlation Test
-1.19 -0.01
Temperature 2021

Average Sen‟s slope for temperature trend = 6.31e-06 per four decades = 1.58e-04 % per
decade with increasing trend.

Table 4.8.24 Minimum Temperature Trend Results

Time Trend Test Z Sen‟s
Period Slope
Mann-Kendall Trend Test without modifications -6.13e-01 -3.20e-05
Bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias
-6.13e-01 -3.20e-05
corrected prewhitening
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data
1981- using the Hamed and Rao(1998) variance correction -2.69e-01 -3.20e-05
1990 approach
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data
using the Yue and Wang (2004) variance correction -4.80e-01 -3.20e-05
approach
Spearman‟s Rank Correlation Test -0.003
1991- Mann-Kendall Trend Test without modifications 4.88e-01 2.67e-05
2000 Bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias 4.11e-01 5.39e-06
114
 Table 4.8.24 Minimum Temperature Trend Results (Continued)

corrected pre-whitening
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data
using the Hamed and Rao(1998) variance correction 1.93e-01 2.67e-05
approach
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data
using the Yue and Wang (2004) variance correction 3.37e-01 2.67e-05
approach
Spearman‟s Rank Correlation Test 0.95
Mann-Kendall Trend Test without modifications -1.02 -5.49e-05
Bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias
-4.80e-01 -6.33e-06
corrected pre-whitening
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data
2001- using the Hamed and Rao(1998) variance correction -4.09e-01 -5.49e-05
2010 approach
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data
using the Yue and Wang (2004) variance correction -6.87e-01 -5.49e-05
approach
Spearman‟s Rank Correlation Test -0.64
Mann-Kendall Trend Test without modifications 1.74e+00 9.07e-05
Bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias
1.45e-01 1.93e-06
corrected pre-whitening
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data
2011- using the Hamed and Rao(1998) variance correction 7.65e-01 9.07e-05
2020 approach
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data
using the Yue and Wang (2004) variance correction 1.35e+00 9.07e-05
approach
Spearman‟s Rank Correlation Test 2.23
Mann-Kendall Trend Test without modifications 1.38e+01 7.25e-02
Bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias 5.11e+00 7.26e-03
corrected pre-whitening
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data 5.34e+00 7.25e-02
2020- using the Hamed and Rao(1998) variance correction
2021 approach
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data 9.11e+00 7.25e-02
using the Yue and Wang (2004) variance correction
approach
Spearman‟s Rank Correlation Test 11.54

Average Sen‟s slope for minimum temperature = 1.12e-02 per decade = 1.12 % per decade
with increasing trend.

Table 4.8.25 Maximum Temperature Trend Results

Time Trend Test Z Sen‟s
Period Slope
Mann-Kendall Trend Test without modifications -1.66e+00 -1.09e-04
Bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias
-8.66e-01 -1.75e-05
corrected prewhitening
1981- Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data
1990 using the Hamed and Rao(1998) variance correction -5.45e-01 -1.09e-04
approach
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data
-9.86e-01 -1.09e-04
using the Yue and Wang (2004) variance correction
115
 Table 4.8.25 Maximum Temperature Trend Results (Continued)

approach
Spearman‟s Rank Correlation Test -1.88
Mann-Kendall Trend Test without modifications -2.46e+00 -1.77e-04
Bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias
-9.66e-01 -1.68e-05
corrected pre-whitening
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data
1991- using the Hamed and Rao(1998) variance correction -8.02e-01 -1.77e-04
2000 approach
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data
using the Yue and Wang (2004) variance correction -1.49e+00 -1.77e-04
approach
Spearman‟s Rank Correlation Test -2.29
Mann-Kendall Trend Test without modifications -7.53e+00 -5.14e-04
Bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias
-1.40e+00 -2.66e-05
corrected pre-whitening
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data
2001- using the Hamed and Rao(1998) variance correction -2.39e+00 -5.14e-04
2010 approach
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data
using the Yue and Wang (2004) variance correction -4.26e+00 -5.14e-04
approach
Spearman‟s Rank Correlation Test -7.53
Mann-Kendall Trend Test without modifications -6.08e+00 -3.93e-04
Bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias
-1.40e+00 -2.56e-05
corrected pre-whitening
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data
2011- using the Hamed and Rao(1998) variance correction -1.56e+00 -3.93e-04
2020 approach
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data
using the Yue and Wang (2004) variance correction -2.87e+00 -3.93e-04
approach
Spearman‟s Rank Correlation Test -5.93
Mann-Kendall Trend Test without modifications 7.92e+00 5.71e-02
Bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias -1.11e-01 -1.15e-04
corrected pre-whitening
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data 1.88e+00 5.71e-02
2020- using the Hamed and Rao(1998) variance correction
2021 approach
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data 3.05e+00 5.71e-02
using the Yue and Wang (2004) variance correction
approach
Spearman‟s Rank Correlation Test 7.08
Average Sen‟s slope for maximum temperature = 8.38e-03 per decade = 0.84 % per decade
with increasing trend.

116
 55
50
45
40
35
Tempearture,30
0C 25
20
15 [Link]
10 Min. Temperatute
5 Temperature
0

Date
Fig. 4.8.12 Extreme Temperature and Temperature Time Series Plots

1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2020

1.00E-04
-8.40E-18
-1.00E-04
-2.00E-04
Sen's Slope
-3.00E-04
-4.00E-04
-5.00E-04
-6.00E-04
Time Period
Fig.4.8.13 Sen's Slope for Max. Temperature

1.00E-04
8.00E-05
6.00E-05
4.00E-05
2.00E-05
Sen's Slope
0.00E+00
1981-1990
-2.00E-05 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2020

-4.00E-05
-6.00E-05
-8.00E-05
Time Period
Fig.4.8.14 Sen's Slope for [Link]
Fig. 4.8.12 shows variations of temperature, minimum and maximum temperature with time
as time series plots for the considered time period 03-Jan-1981 to 20-Jun-2021 within the
117
study area. Maximum temperature varies from 48.250C to 21.920C while minimum
temperature varies from 33.830C to 10.220C during 1981-2021 period [Fig.4.8.13].
Temperature varies from 39.890C to 17.560C during 1981-2021 period [Fig.4.8.13]. Figs.
4.8.13 and 4.8.14 present Sen‟s slope profile within various time periods starting from 1981-
1990 to 2011-2020 of extreme temperatures from trend analysis using various modified
versions of Mann-Kendall trend test to assess climate change impacts on temperature for the
proposed city. Sen‟s slope for maximum temperature trends varies from -5.14e-04 to -2.66e-
05 of 2001-2010 time period [Fig.4.8.13]. Sen‟s slope for minimum temperature trends varies
from 1.93e-06 of time period 2011-2020 to -6.33e-06 of time period 2001-2010 [Fig.4.8.14].

4.8.4 Stormwater Network Model

Following table gives the results of velocity of flow, slope calculated, full flow, flow/capacity
(design) and depth (normal)/rise as percentage conduit wise. StormCAD network model
results affirm that hydraulic design requirements such as velocity and flow at each conduit are
fulfilled.

Table 4.8.26 Amaravati StormCAD Model – Conduit Flex Table

Length Flow /
(User Slope Capacity Capacity Depth
Defined) (Calculated (Full (Design (Normal) /
Start Invert Invert Velocity Depth
) (m/m) Flow) ) Rise (%)
ID Label Node (Start) (m) Stop Node (Stop) (m) (m) (m/s) (Out) (m)
(L/s) (%)
34 CO-1 MH-2 21.29 MH-3 21.02 73.8 0.004 2.42 24.19 43,261.59 56 52.2
36 CO-2 MH-3 21.29 MH-4 20.1 332.6 0.004 2.19 24.74 48,531.63 49.5 48.2
38 CO-3 MH-5 21.29 MH-4 19.32 552.7 0.004 2.42 25.52 42,711.32 56.7 52.7
44 CO-4 MH-6 21.29 MH-5 20.54 208.1 0.004 2.42 24.87 42,953.91 56.4 52.5
46 CO-5 MH-7 21.29 MH-6 20.54 205.4 0.004 2.42 25.19 43,231.15 56.1 52.3
48 CO-6 MH-8 21.29 MH-7 20.64 178.8 0.004 2.42 25.3 43,138.36 56.2 52.4
50 CO-7 MH-9 21.29 MH-8 20.48 228.4 0.004 2.19 25.75 48,320.16 49.8 48.3
52 CO-8 MH-10 21.29 MH-9 20.73 158.8 0.004 2.42 25.78 42,484.96 57 52.9
54 CO-9 MH-11 21.29 MH-10 20.7 160.5 0.004 2.42 26.07 43,377.89 55.9 52.1
58 CO-10 MH-13 21.29 MH-12 19.88 394.2 0.004 2.42 27.07 42,789.20 56.6 52.7
60 CO-11 MH-14 21.29 MH-13 19.66 452.7 0.004 2.42 27.8 42,931.79 56.4 52.5
62 CO-12 MH-15 21.29 MH-14 19.61 475.3 0.004 2.42 28.41 42,534.99 57 52.9
66 CO-13 MH-16 22.14 MH-17 19.92 658.2 0.003 2.42 29.98 41,548.69 58.3 53.8
68 CO-14 MH-17 19.92 MH-18 18.46 324.4 0.005 2.42 31 47,996.45 50.5 48.5
70 CO-15 MH-19 22.29 MH-18 19.79 694.1 0.004 2.42 29.67 42,937.92 56.4 52.5
79 CO-16 MH-21 47.29 MH-20 44.23 844.7 0.004 2.42 13.11 43,060.18 56.3 52.4
81 CO-17 MH-20 47.29 MH-22 45.45 508 0.004 2.42 11.26 43,059.09 56.3 52.4
84 CO-18 MH-23 47.29 MH-22 45.41 521 0.004 2.19 11.3 48,735.62 49.3 48
86 CO-19 MH-22 47.29 MH-24 46.01 523.6 0.002 2.42 10.06 35,371.62 68.5 60.4
88 CO-20 MH-24 47.29 MH-25 46.05 507.3 0.002 2.42 9.4 35,369.75 68.5 60.4
90 CO-21 MH-26 47.29 MH-25 46.07 642.7 0.002 2.42 9.38 31,170.87 77.7 66.3
98 CO-22 MH-27 47.29 MH-30 43.8 978 0.004 2.42 15.96 42,737.99 56.7 52.7
101 CO-23 MH-29 32.29 MH-31 30.28 550.5 0.004 2.42 28.2 43,228.48 56.1 52.3
105 CO-24 MH-30 47.29 MH-32 46.01 522.3 0.002 2.42 13.11 35,417.99 68.4 60.4
106 CO-25 MH-32 33.41 MH-31 32 522 0.003 2.42 26.48 37,183.75 65.2 58.3
108 CO-26 MH-25 44.97 MH-33 44.5 524.3 0.001 2.19 10.42 24,291.23 99 79.4
109 CO-27 MH-33 33.39 MH-28 32.58 522.9 0.002 2.42 21.7 28,158.66 86.1 71.5

118
 Table 4.8.26 Amaravati StormCAD Model – Conduit Flex Table (Continued)
116 CO-28 MH-35 32.29 MH-36 30.82 408.9 0.004 2.42 26.3 42,895.97 56.5 52.6
118 CO-29 MH-31 32.29 MH-36 27.89 1,224.00 0.004 2.42 29.23 42,894.02 56.5 52.6
121 CO-30 MH-37 32.29 MH-28 29.79 692.5 0.004 2.42 24.49 42,985.33 56.4 52.5
126 CO-31 MH-39 32.29 MH-34 29.74 712.1 0.004 2.42 25.9 42,813.25 56.6 52.6
127 CO-32 MH-38 32.29 MH-39 29.79 695.3 0.004 2.42 26.68 42,899.93 56.5 52.6
129 CO-33 MH-36 32.29 MH-40 30.35 536.2 0.004 2.42 26.11 43,031.62 56.3 52.4
130 CO-34 MH-40 32.29 MH-34 29.78 701.4 0.004 2.42 25.86 42,797.70 56.6 52.6
133 CO-35 MH-41 32.58 MH-34 31.6 529.6 0.002 2.42 24.04 30,774.36 78.7 66.9
135 CO-36 MH-42 21.29 MH-2 20.18 310.1 0.004 2.42 25.21 42,803.97 56.6 52.6
137 CO-37 MH-43 21.29 MH-42 20.34 258.9 0.004 2.42 25.47 43,333.99 55.9 52.2
139 CO-38 MH-44 21.29 MH-43 19.55 486.6 0.004 2.42 26.62 42,779.64 56.6 52.7
143 CO-39 MH-45 21.58 MH-46 21.2 301.8 0.001 2.42 21.75 25,387.51 95.4 77.2
145 CO-40 MH-46 21.29 MH-47 20.58 451.4 0.002 2.42 21.8 28,374.57 85.4 71.1
147 CO-41 MH-47 20.29 MH-48 19.7 378.4 0.002 2.42 22.19 28,251.76 85.8 71.3
151 CO-42 MH-4 21.29 MH-49 14.25 1,962.90 0.004 2.42 28.46 42,845.56 56.6 52.6
152 CO-43 MH-49 20.29 MH-48 19.09 700.6 0.002 2.42 22.8 29,609.72 81.8 68.9
154 CO-44 MH-12 19.88 MH-50 16.56 3,196.80 0.001 2.3 27.39 24,595.66 98.1 78.9
155 CO-45 MH-50 20.29 MH-49 16.33 1,095.20 0.004 2.42 26.38 43,019.30 56.3 52.5
158 CO-46 MH-51 22.29 MH-16 22.14 39.3 0.004 2.42 28.54 44,193.72 54.8 51.4
161 CO-47 MH-52 20.29 MH-50 16.56 1,040.30 0.004 2.42 27.39 42,838.60 56.6 52.6
163 CO-48 MH-18 22.08 MH-53 17.75 2,919.50 0.001 2.02 29.79 35,482.25 69.3 60.5
166 CO-49 MH-54 20.29 MH-52 16.24 1,130.60 0.004 2.42 28.88 42,819.29 56.6 52.6
167 CO-50 MH-53 22.29 MH-54 18.63 1,017.60 0.004 2.42 27.76 42,906.25 56.5 52.6
170 CO-51 MH-55 22.29 MH-53 18.53 1,047.50 0.004 2.42 29.01 42,862.87 56.5 52.6
173 CO-52 MH-56 22.29 MH-55 18.61 1,022.20 0.004 2.42 30.11 42,926.19 56.5 52.5
176 CO-53 MH-57 22.29 MH-56 18.53 1,047.20 0.004 2.42 31.35 42,870.03 56.5 52.6
178 CO-54 MH-34 32.29 MH-58 27.4 1,362.80 0.004 2.42 26.73 42,856.11 56.5 52.6
180 CO-55 MH-28 32.29 MH-59 30 1,376.20 0.002 2.42 22.76 29,184.33 83 69.6
181 CO-56 MH-59 31 MH-57 27.58 1,547.30 0.002 2.42 23.48 33,635.28 72 62.7
182 CO-57 MH-58 32.29 MH-59 30 1,225.80 0.002 2.42 22.76 30,922.73 78.4 66.7
190 CO-58 MH-61 21.5 MH-62 11.5 8,081.70 0.001 2.42 29.24 25,166.02 96.3 77.8
191 CO-59 MH-48 20.29 MH-62 19.02 1,018.30 0.001 2.42 21.72 25,265.40 95.9 77.5
194 CO-60 MH-63 21.29 MH-64 18.22 855.8 0.004 2.42 32.64 42,850.12 56.6 52.6
197 CO-61 MH-62 20.29 MH-65 16.56 1,035.20 0.004 2.42 23.01 42,944.41 56.4 52.5
200 CO-62 MH-66 23.29 MH-67 21.33 547.1 0.004 2.42 31.01 42,822.99 56.6 52.6
205 CO-63 MH-67 21.33 MH-69 15.95 2,418.50 0.002 2.42 33.79 33,743.34 71.8 62.5
206 CO-64 MH-69 21.29 MH-68 19.5 487.5 0.004 2.42 29.64 43,353.87 55.9 52.2
207 CO-65 MH-64 21.29 MH-69 17.75 982.8 0.004 2.42 31.99 42,936.94 56.4 52.5
209 CO-66 MH-70 23.58 MH-67 21.33 987.3 0.002 2.42 31.01 34,152.99 71 62
211 CO-67 MH-68 20.29 MH-71 13 4,049.50 0.002 2.42 31.86 30,355.06 79.8 67.6
214 CO-68 MH-72 21.58 MH-65 14.8 3,697.90 0.002 2.42 24.77 30,633.92 79.1 67.2
216 CO-69 MH-73 21.58 MH-72 21 375.4 0.002 2.42 22.49 28,120.79 86.2 71.6
Length Flow /
(User Slope Capacity Capacity Depth
Defined) (Calculated (Full (Design (Normal) /
ID Start Invert Invert Velocity Depth
) (m/m) Flow) ) Rise (%)
Label Node (Start) (m) Stop Node (Stop) (m) (m) (m/s) (Out) (m)
(L/s) (%)
218 CO-70 MH-74 19.58 MH-73 19.2 308.5 0.001 2.42 24.78 25,108.26 96.5 77.9
219 CO-71 MH-71 19.29 MH-74 18.83 347.4 0.001 2.42 25.57 26,033.00 93.1 75.8
221 CO-72 MH-75 19.29 MH-71 18.59 383.6 0.002 2.42 26.27 30,562.80 79.3 67.3
223 CO-73 MH-76 20.08 MH-75 17.6 1,352.90 0.002 2.42 27.65 30,631.10 79.1 67.2
227 CO-74 MH-78 19.58 MH-77 18.28 631.5 0.002 2.42 17.69 32,461.24 74.6 64.3
229 CO-75 MH-79 19.58 MH-78 18.21 661.6 0.002 2.42 18.52 32,556.09 74.4 64.2
231 CO-76 MH-80 19.58 MH-79 18.22 672 0.002 2.42 19.29 32,184.11 75.3 64.8
232 CO-77 MH-65 20.08 MH-80 17.98 1,124.90 0.002 2.42 20.32 30,911.98 78.4 66.7
235 CO-78 MH-81 22.58 MH-82 20.18 1,057.60 0.002 2.42 39.81 34,080.76 71.1 62.1
237 CO-79 MH-82 22.5 MH-83 17.75 2,036.00 0.002 2.42 40.04 34,556.41 70.1 61.5
239 CO-80 MH-84 22.58 MH-82 18.93 1,664.20 0.002 2.42 41.06 33,505.04 72.3 62.9
241 CO-81 MH-83 22 MH-85 20.58 325.5 0.004 2.42 36.77 47,253.62 51.3 49
243 CO-82 MH-85 20.5 MH-86 13 5,679.60 0.001 2.42 38.38 25,997.94 93.2 75.9

119
 Table 4.8.26 Amaravati StormCAD Model – Conduit Flex Table (Continued)
244 CO-83 MH-86 20.58 MH-68 17 2,072.60 0.002 2.42 32.14 29,733.93 81.5 68.7
246 CO-84 MH-87 19.58 MH-86 17.3 1,229.90 0.002 2.42 34.08 30,803.42 78.7 66.9
248 CO-85 MH-88 19.58 MH-87 16.5 1,776.90 0.002 2.42 36.25 29,785.70 81.4 68.6
250 CO-86 MH-89 19.58 MH-88 18.65 599.4 0.002 2.42 36.04 28,181.02 86 71.4
254 CO-87 MH-91 19.58 MH-90 19.12 330.4 0.001 2.42 13.83 26,694.31 90.8 74.4
256 CO-88 MH-92 19.58 MH-91 18.99 375 0.002 2.42 14.41 28,378.05 85.4 71.1
258 CO-89 MH-93 19.58 MH-92 18.84 431.7 0.002 2.42 15.04 29,619.05 81.8 68.8
260 CO-90 MH-94 19.58 MH-93 18.56 535.3 0.002 2.42 15.87 31,230.00 77.6 66.2
262 CO-91 MH-95 19.58 MH-94 19.24 282.8 0.001 2.42 15.84 24,806.98 97.7 78.6
263 CO-92 MH-77 19.58 MH-95 18.96 386.1 0.002 2.42 16.51 28,670.84 84.5 70.5
266 CO-93 MH-96 22.29 MH-97 20.09 612.6 0.004 2.42 38.96 42,875.28 56.5 52.6
268 CO-94 MH-97 22.29 MH-98 19.08 892.5 0.004 2.42 38.95 42,905.20 56.5 52.6
269 CO-95 MH-98 22.29 MH-83 21.79 137.1 0.004 2.42 36 43,203.29 56.1 52.3
271 CO-96 MH-99 23.58 MH-97 21.74 1,019.00 0.002 2.42 37.31 30,401.62 79.7 67.5
273 CO-97 MH-100 23 MH-99 17.08 5,137.80 0.001 2.42 43.13 24,285.06 99.8 79.9
275 CO-98 MH-101 19.58 MH-100 14.61 3,129.60 0.002 2.42 51.01 28,510.24 85 70.8
277 CO-99 MH-102 19.58 MH-101 17.02 1,248.00 0.002 2.42 51.93 32,402.15 74.8 64.4
279 CO-100 MH-103 19.58 MH-102 18.99 455.1 0.001 2.42 51.35 25,759.03 94.1 76.4
281 CO-101 MH-104 19.58 MH-103 18.71 572.8 0.002 2.42 52.2 27,883.26 86.9 72
285 CO-102 MH-106 19.58 MH-105 18.85 512.8 0.001 2.42 12.39 26,993.69 89.8 73.8
287 CO-103 MH-107 19.58 MH-106 18.96 465.4 0.001 2.42 12.81 26,113.10 92.8 75.6
290 CO-104 MH-108 19.58 MH-107 19.25 202.3 0.002 2.42 13.1 28,893.75 83.9 70.1
291 CO-105 MH-90 19.58 MH-108 19.12 190.9 0.002 2.42 13.54 35,121.78 69 60.7
293 CO-106 MH-109 22.58 MH-99 22.26 242 0.001 2.42 37.95 26,015.05 93.1 75.8
296 CO-107 MH-110 24.58 MH-111 24.17 191.1 0.002 2.42 16.85 33,139.86 73.1 63.4
298 CO-108 MH-111 24.58 MH-112 22.58 423.2 0.005 2.42 17.9 49,181.11 49.3 47.7
300 CO-109 MH-112 22.58 MH-113 21.83 366.8 0.002 2.42 18.17 32,349.28 74.9 64.5
302 CO-110 MH-113 22.58 MH-114 21.52 667.4 0.002 2.42 17.69 28,512.55 85 70.8
304 CO-111 MH-114 22.58 MH-115 21.22 796.8 0.002 2.42 17.07 29,556.32 82 69
306 CO-112 MH-115 26.29 MH-116 24.36 862.9 0.002 2.42 12.94 33,835.88 71.6 62.4
308 CO-113 MH-116 26.29 MH-117 23.96 1,039.70 0.002 2.42 12.17 33,868.88 71.5 62.4
310 CO-114 MH-117 26.58 MH-118 23.58 1,016.10 0.003 2.42 11.39 38,874.54 62.3 56.4
312 CO-115 MH-118 23.58 MH-119 19.58 1,878.60 0.002 2.42 13.35 33,012.21 73.4 63.6
314 CO-116 MH-119 19.58 MH-120 17.5 1,046.20 0.002 2.42 14.25 31,899.85 76 65.2
316 CO-117 MH-120 19.58 MH-121 17.5 1,404.30 0.001 2.42 12.7 27,533.93 88 72.7
318 CO-118 MH-121 19.58 MH-122 18.46 771.9 0.001 2.42 10.84 27,251.61 88.9 73.2
320 CO-119 MH-122 19.03 MH-123 18.58 209.4 0.002 2.42 10.41 33,162.16 73.1 63.3
322 CO-120 MH-123 18.53 MH-124 18.04 335.3 0.001 2.42 10.5 27,351.43 88.6 73.1
324 CO-121 MH-124 18.58 MH-125 18.04 344.1 0.002 2.42 10.04 28,340.14 85.5 71.1
326 CO-122 MH-126 18.58 MH-125 16.74 1,013.70 0.002 2.42 11.34 30,479.94 79.5 67.4
328 CO-123 MH-127 18.58 MH-126 18.05 293.1 0.002 2.42 11.18 30,421.57 79.7 67.5
330 CO-124 MH-128 18.58 MH-127 18.09 317.5 0.002 2.42 11.54 28,105.14 86.2 71.6
332 CO-125 MH-129 19.5 MH-128 18.85 291.4 0.002 2.42 11.21 33,788.65 71.7 62.5
333 CO-126 MH-105 19.58 MH-129 18.65 650.5 0.001 2.42 11.81 27,050.23 89.6 73.7
336 CO-127 MH-130 26.58 MH-131 24.53 1,185.60 0.002 2.42 13.18 29,749.38 81.5 68.6
338 CO-128 MH-131 26.58 MH-132 25.13 834 0.002 2.42 11.61 29,831.33 81.2 68.5
340 CO-129 MH-132 26.58 MH-133 25.98 502.4 0.001 2.42 10.14 24,723.91 98 78.8
342 CO-130 MH-133 27.58 MH-134 26.25 831 0.002 2.42 8.92 28,621.28 84.7 70.6
344 CO-131 MH-134 27.58 MH-135 26.83 527.5 0.001 2.42 7.69 26,976.77 89.8 73.8
346 CO-132 MH-135 27.58 MH-136 26.87 506.9 0.001 2.42 7.03 26,775.57 85.9 74.2
348 CO-133 MH-136 27.58 MH-137 20.58 1,031.40 0.007 2.42 12.15 58,938.02 41.1 42
349 CO-134 MH-137 20.58 MH-120 19.4 849.8 0.001 2.42 12.35 26,659.63 90.9 74.5
352 CO-135 MH-138 26.58 MH-139 24.99 902.1 0.002 2.42 8.77 30,035.52 80.7 68.1
356 CO-136 MH-140 26.58 MH-141 26.01 260.8 0.002 2.42 10.5 33,447.09 72.4 63
357 CO-137 MH-141 26.58 MH-133 26.08 276.6 0.002 2.42 10.04 30,415.43 79.7 67.5
359 CO-138 MH-139 26.58 MH-142 25.62 614.5 0.002 2.42 7.4 28,278.20 85.7 71.3
Length Flow /
(User Slope Capacity Capacity Depth
Defined) (Calculated (Full (Design (Normal) /
ID Start Invert Invert Velocity Depth
) (m/m) Flow) ) Rise (%)
Label Node (Start) (m) Stop Node (Stop) (m) (m) (m/s) (Out) (m)
(L/s)
120
 Table 4.8.26 Amaravati StormCAD Model – Conduit Flex Table (Continued)
(Continued(Continued)
(%)
361 CO-139 MH-142 27.5 MH-143 26.35 516.8 0.002 2.42 6.04 33,749.45 71.8 62.5
363 CO-140 MH-143 27.5 MH-144 26.35 511.1 0.002 2.42 5.41 33,936.14 71.4 62.3
365 CO-141 MH-144 26.9 MH-145 24.58 509.2 0.005 2.42 6.55 48,290.05 50.2 48.3
367 CO-142 MH-145 24.58 MH-146 20.58 1,037.30 0.004 2.42 9.38 44,426.93 54.5 51.3
369 CO-143 MH-146 20.58 MH-147 19.52 522.7 0.002 2.42 9.8 32,218.52 75.2 64.7
371 CO-144 MH-147 20.58 MH-148 20.09 316.2 0.002 2.42 8.81 28,165.53 86 71.5
373 CO-145 MH-148 20.58 MH-149 20.04 294.6 0.002 2.42 8.45 30,629.47 79.1 67.2
375 CO-146 MH-149 20.58 MH-150 20.17 191.3 0.002 2.42 8.02 33,123.40 73.2 63.4
377 CO-147 MH-150 20.58 MH-151 19.39 718.6 0.002 2.42 7.96 29,114.03 83.2 69.7
379 CO-148 MH-151 20.58 MH-152 17.59 1,520.40 0.002 2.42 8.09 31,727.09 76.4 65.4
381 CO-149 MH-153 19.58 MH-152 18.62 547.5 0.002 2.42 7.06 29,958.90 80.9 68.3
383 CO-150 MH-154 20.5 MH-153 19.59 410.8 0.002 2.42 6.75 33,670.59 72 62.6
385 CO-151 MH-155 19.5 MH-154 18.5 443.3 0.002 2.42 8.37 33,981.08 71.3 62.2
386 CO-152 MH-125 18.5 MH-155 17.85 538.7 0.001 2.42 9.58 24,850.64 97.5 78.5
389 CO-153 MH-156 18.58 MH-157 17.71 540.8 0.002 2.42 8.29 28,695.36 84.4 70.5
391 CO-154 MH-157 18.58 MH-158 18.27 188.6 0.002 2.42 7.44 29,004.47 83.5 69.9
393 CO-155 MH-158 18.58 MH-159 18.31 128.6 0.002 2.42 7.16 32,777.60 73.9 63.9
395 CO-156 MH-159 18.58 MH-160 17.07 784.4 0.002 2.42 7.49 31,388.82 77.2 66
397 CO-157 MH-160 18.58 MH-161 17.39 641.5 0.002 2.42 6.41 30,813.30 78.6 66.9
399 CO-158 MH-161 18.58 MH-162 16.24 1,148.90 0.002 2.42 6.27 32,286.99 75.1 64.6
401 CO-159 MH-163 18.58 MH-162 18.08 299.7 0.002 2.42 4.43 29,223.34 82.9 69.5
403 CO-160 MH-164 18.58 MH-163 17.04 789.1 0.002 2.42 5.88 31,605.96 76.7 65.6
405 CO-161 MH-165 18.58 MH-164 16.31 1,121.00 0.002 2.42 7.53 32,193.83 75.3 64.7
406 CO-162 MH-152 18.58 MH-165 17.76 466 0.002 2.42 7.34 30,009.71 80.7 68.2
408 CO-163 MH-60 22.29 MH-61 17.57 2,127.70 0.002 2.42 31.62 33,696.06 71.9 62.6
412 CO-164 MH-166 21.29 MH-61 17.61 1,027.80 0.004 2.42 31.58 42,809.93 56.6 52.6
414 CO-165 MH-1 21.29 MH-44 20.56 200.9 0.004 2.42 26.22 43,122.65 56.2 52.4
430 CO-166 MH-162 16.24 MH-167 15.5 400 0.002 2.42 6.5 30,771.76 78.7 66.9
431 CO-167 MH-167 21.4 O-1 21.3 100 0.001 2.87 1.45 25,655.85 93.7 76.2

Total length of stormwater network = 145.59 km

Note:
Depth (Out) = Hydraulic Grade Line (Out) - Invert (Stop)
Capacity (Full Flow) = Full Capacity of the pipe
Capacity (Design) = Capacity of conduit at the design depth [Conduit rise x (design percent
full /100)]
4.8.5 Stormwater Management Model
Total Peak Runoff from No LID [with 9.52% Impervious Area, zero percentage Zero
Depression Impervious Area and Evaporation from Monthly averages] Option = 207.17 m3/s
--- Option (1)

121
 Table 4.8.27 Comparison of various LID Control Options for Runoff Reduction
Total Peak Percentage of total
LID Control
Description of LID Control Option Runoff runoff reduction [Link]
Option
[m3/s] NO LID Option (1)
with 9.52% Impervious Area, zero
No LID percentage Zero Depression Impervious 206.55 0.30
Area, Evaporation from Temperature
with 100% Impervious Area, 100% Zero
No LID Depression Impervious Area, 207.88 -0.34
Evaporation from Monthly Averages
with 100% Impervious Area, 100% Zero
No LID Depression Impervious Area, 206.88 0.14
Evaporation from Temperature
with 90% Impervious Area, 90% Zero
Bio-Retention
Depression Impervious Area, Bio- 172.13 16.91
Cell
Retention Cell for 10% Area
Bio- with 80% Impervious Area, 80% Zero
Retention Depression Impervious Area , Bio- 111.49 46.18
Cell Retention Cell for 20% Area
Bio- with 70% Impervious Area, 70%
Retention Zero Depression Impervious Area, 52.75 74.54
Cell Bio-Retention Cell for 30% Area
Bio- with 60% Impervious Area, 60% Zero
Retention Depression Impervious Area, Bio- 4.5 97.83
Cell Retention Cell for 40% Area
Bio- with 50% Impervious Area, 50% Zero
Retention Depression Impervious Area, Bio- 5.28 97.45
Cell Retention Cell for 50% Area
With 50% Impervious Area, 50% Zero
Infiltration
Depression Impervious Area and 50% 3.52 98.30
Trench
Area with Infiltration Trench
With 90% Impervious Area, 90% Zero
Permeable
Depression Impervious Area and 10% 169.74 18.07
Pavement
Area with Permeable Pavement
With 50% Impervious Area, 50% Zero
Rain Barrel Depression Impervious Area and 50% 176.24 14.93
Area with Rain Barrel
With 50% Impervious Area, 50% Zero
Rain Garden Depression Impervious Area and 50% 131.32 36.61
Area with Rain Garden
With 50% Impervious Area, 50% Zero
Vegetative
Depression Impervious Area and 50% 133.29 35.66
Swale
Area with Vegetative Swale
NOTE: Negative sign of percentage of total peak runoff reduction indicates that increase of
total peak runoff [Link] considered NO LID Option.
The same procedure as that of bio-retention cell LID option is adopted for other LIDs such as
infiltration trench, rain garden, permeable pavement, rain barrel and vegetative swale. The

122
total peak runoff results obtained from various LID control options are compared with that
from a particular No LID option.
4.9 Calibration & Validation
4.9.1 SWAT Model Validation
Developed SWAT models for both the periods of simulation are validated for obtained peak
runoff results. Mandal wise daily maximum rainfall is used to find the observed peak runoff
results by applying the rational formula as given in below eq. (2). Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency,
NSE and coefficient of determination, R2 are commonly used for model validation purpose as
presented in below eqs. (3) and (4). Values of NSE and R2 close to 1 indicate that observed
and simulated values are in very good agreement and thus model developed becomes
validated.
Rational formula to find,
Peak flow/ runoff = CIA (4.15)
where, C = runoff coefficient,
I = intensity of rainfall, A = catchment area.
Table 4.9.1: Mandal wise Maximum Daily Rainfall
(Source: AP CRDA/AMRDA)
[Link]. Name of Date Maximum daily
Mandal rainfall, mm/day
1 Amaravati 20-Sep-2006 194.20
2 Mangalagiri 10-May-1990 203.00
3 Tulluru 20-Sep-2005 183.00
n
i=1 Oi − Si 2
Nash – Sutcliffe Coefficient / Efficiency = NSE = 1- n 2 (4.16)
i=1 O i − O avg

[Nash and Sutcliffe, 1970]

2 [ ni=1 O i −O avg (S i − Savg )]2

Coefficient of determination, R = n 2 n
(4.17)
i=1 O i −O avg i=1(S i − S avg )2

where, n is the number of data,

i is the ith observed or simulated data,
O and S are observed and simulated values of the data,
Oavg is the average of observed data,
Savg is the average of simulated data

Tables 4.9.2 to 4.9.4 present peak runoff computation sub-basin wise as maximum daily

surface runoff generating within a particular HRU and NSE check for calibration period i.e.

123
from 01-Jan-1979 to 31-Dec-1981. Surface runoff contribution to streamflow [SURQ_CNT]

is considered as maximum surface runoff from SWAT model.

Table 4.9.2: Peak Runoff Rate for calibration period from 01-Jan-1979 to 31-Dec-1981

HRU Sub- HRU Sub- Date Preci- Maximum Maximum

basin Area basin pitation surface average
km2 Area mm runoff velocity
km2 mm m/s
1 1 0.772 2.222 02-Sep-1979 131.8 99.832 1.990
6 2 0.069 17.47 02-Sep-1979 131.8 113.117 2.502
7 3 0.843 1.729 02-Sep-1979 131.8 83.171 1.014
10 4 0.644 14.88 02-Sep-1979 131.8 97.472 1.123
16 5 0.099 11.87 02-Sep-1979 131.8 110.816 1.387
21 6 0.296 1.773 02-Sep-1979 131.8 102.675 0.757
22 7 0.002 5.346 02-Sep-1979 131.8 108.231 2.576
27 8 0.048 8.446 02-Sep-1979 131.8 112.053 2.979
35 9 0.369 2.754 02-Sep-1979 131.8 112.696 1.622
40 10 0.221 1.957 02-Sep-1979 131.8 110.001 0.759
43 11 1.710 3.565 02-Sep-1979 131.8 89.589 0.815

Table 4.9.3: Peak runoff rate and related information on 02 September 1979 during
calibration period from 01-Jan-1979 to 31-Dec-1981
Sub- Length of flow in Time of αtc, Sub-basin based
3
basin total Sub-basin, m concentration, tc, hr hr Peak Runoff, m /s
1 2025 0.283 0.012 2.57
2 945 0.105 0.004 22.87
3 2385 0.653 0.027 1.66
4 1185 0.293 0.012 16.79
5 2235 0.448 0.019 15.22
6 1680 0.616 0.026 2.11
7 233 0.025 0.001 6.70
8 1770 0.165 0.007 10.95
9 2198 0.376 0.016 3.59
10 2325 0.851 0.035 2.49
11 4193 1.428 0.059 3.70

124
Table 4.9.4: NSE Check for Peak Runoff for calibration period from 01-Jan-1979 to 31-Dec-1981
Considering, maximum rainfall as 85.10 mm/day [Source: IMD Gannavaram Station Data]

Peak
Precipitation Maximum
Sub- Runoff Peak Runoff
from SWAT Surface Runoff
Sub- basin from Runoff from
Model, from SWAT
basin area, SWAT Coefficient observed
mm/day Model, mm/day
km2 Model, data, m3/s
m3/s
1 2.222 2.57 131.80 99.83 0.76 1.66
2 17.47 22.87 131.80 113.12 0.86 14.77
3 1.729 1.66 131.80 83.17 0.63 1.07
4 14.88 16.79 131.80 97.47 0.74 10.84
5 11.87 15.22 131.80 110.82 0.84 9.83
6 1.773 2.11 131.80 102.68 0.78 1.36
7 5.346 6.70 131.80 108.23 0.82 4.32
8 8.446 10.95 131.80 112.05 0.85 7.07
9 2.754 3.59 131.80 112.70 0.86 2.32
10 1.957 2.49 131.80 110.00 0.83 1.61
11 3.565 3.70 131.80 89.59 0.68 2.39

Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, NSE for peak Runoff for calibration period from 01-Jan-1979 to 31-Dec-1981
is 0.705.

25

20
Simulated, m3/s
Peak Runoff -

15

10

5 y = 1.548x + 0.000
R² = 1
0
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00

Peak Runoff - Observed, m3/s

Fig. 4.9.1: Peak Runoff, m3/s - Observed Vs Simulated for calibration period from 01-Jan-
1979 to 31-Dec-1981

125
Table 4.9.5: NSE Check for Peak Runoff for period of simulation from 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
From Table 4I.1, considering maximum rainfall = 203.00 mm/day,
Peak
Precipitation Maximum
Sub- Runoff Peak Runoff
from SWAT Surface Runoff
Sub- basin from Runoff from
Model, from SWAT
basin area, SWAT Coefficient observed
mm/day Model, mm/day
km2 Model, data, m3/s
m3/s
1 2.222 5.64 252.5 219.49 0.87 4.54
2 17.47 48.3 252.5 238.85 0.95 38.83
3 1.729 4.54 252.5 227.03 0.90 3.65
4 14.88 36.89 252.5 214.19 0.85 29.66
5 11.87 32.46 252.5 236.30 0.94 26.10
6 1.773 4.64 252.5 225.89 0.89 3.73
7 5.346 14.75 252.5 238.44 0.94 11.86
8 8.446 23.12 252.5 236.49 0.94 18.59
9 2.754 7.58 252.5 237.92 0.94 6.10
10 1.957 5.25 252.5 231.94 0.92 4.22
11 3.565 8.11 252.5 196.47 0.78 6.52

Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, NSE = 0.94

60
Peak Runoff, m3/s - Observed Vs Simulated. Period of Simulation from
01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
50
Simulated Peak Runoff, m3/s

40

30

20

10 y = 1.243x - 0.002
R² = 1
0
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00
Observed Peak Runoff, m3/s
Fig. 4.9.2: Peak Runoff, m3/s - Observed Vs Simulated for Period of Simulation from 01-Jan-
1982 to 31-Jul-2014

126
Table 4.9.6: NSE Check for Peak Runoff for period of simulation from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-
2050

From Table 4.9.1, considering maximum rainfall = 203.00 mm/day,

Maximum
Peak Surface
Precipitation Peak
Sub- Runoff Runoff
from SWAT Runoff
Sub- basin from from Runoff
Model, from
basin area, SWAT SWAT Coefficient
2 mm/day observed
km Model, Model,
data, m3/s
m3/s mm/day

1 2.222 4.15 185.413 161.442 0.87 4.55

2 17.47 35.3 185.413 174.592 0.94 38.65
3 1.729 3.35 185.413 167.65 0.90 3.67
4 14.88 27.28 185.413 158.412 0.85 29.87
5 11.87 23.46 185.413 170.78 0.92 25.69
6 1.773 3.39 185.413 165.046 0.89 3.71
7 5.346 10.64 185.413 171.941 0.93 11.65
8 8.446 16.94 185.413 173.317 0.93 18.55
9 2.754 5.55 185.413 174.088 0.94 6.08
10 1.957 3.87 185.413 170.831 0.92 4.24
11 3.565 6.11 185.413 148.012 0.80 6.69

Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, NSE = 0.993

40 Peak Runoff, m3/s - Observed Vs Simulated

Period of Simulation from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050
35
Simulated Peak Runoff, m3/s

30

25

20

15 y = 0.913x + 0.000
R² = 1
10

0
0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00
Observed Peak Runoff, m3/s

Fig.4.9.3: Peak Runoff, m3/s - Observed Vs Simulated for Period of Simulation from 01-Aug-
2014 to 31-Dec-2050

127
 Table 4.9.7: Validation Table
Period of Simulation Coefficient of Nash-Sutcliffe Remarks
determination, R2 Efficiency,
NSE
01-Jan-1979 to 31-Dec- Warm-up Period
1.00 0.705
1981
01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul- 1.00 0.94 Calibration Period
2014
01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec- 1.00 0.993 Validation/Projected
2050 Period

From the above analysis and Table 4.9.7, it is evident that for all the periods of simulation i.e.

from 01-Jan-1979 to 31-Dec-1981 (warm-up period), 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014 with actual

data (calibration period) and from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050 with projected data

(validation/projected period), observed and simulated results of peak runoff are in very good

agreement. Also, the obtained maximum inflows and outflows for each sub-basin remain same

for all the periods of simulation when LULC type is changed from agriculture, AGRL to built-

up, URHD.

Fig.4.9.4: Hydrologic cycle diagram with revised curve number 98 for period from 01-Jan-
1982 to 31-Jul-2014

128
Fig.4.9.5: Hydrologic cycle diagram with revised curve number 98 for period from 01-Aug-

2014 to 31-Dec-2050

Figs. 4.9.4 and 4.9.5 show hydrologic cycle diagrams with revised curve number 98 for both
the periods of simulation. Curve number value of 98 is to be considered for impervious urban
areas [Table 20-3, SWAT Input/Output file documentation version 2009].
Total runoff from entire catchment for period of simulation from 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
is 168.441 m3/sec for revised curve number 98. Total runoff from entire catchment for period
of simulation from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050 is 129.089 m3/sec with revised curve umber
of 98. Thus, total peak runoff results are very close when curve numbers of 85.82 and 98 are
obtained for both the periods of simulation. This shows that even when most of the basin
area becomes impervious, then total runoff will not change significantly.
4.9.2 Assessment of Climate Change Impact
[Link]. Validation of Trend Analysis
[Link].1 Case I: Considering, Tulluru Mandal daily precipitation data (Source: AP
CRDA/AMRDA) for 01-Mar-1989 to 30-Sep-2014,
Table 4.9.8 Tulluru Mandal Daily Precipitation Trend Results
For Time Period - 01-Mar-1989 to 30-Sep-2014 Value
Bias corrected prewhitened Z 1.162e-01
Bias corrected prewhitened Sen‟s slope 0.000e+00
Bias corrected prewhitened S 2.831e+04
Bias corrected prewhitened Kendall‟s Tau 6.356e-04
Bootstrapped p 0.5

129
Therefore, insignificant increasing trend at 95% confidence level and Sen‟s slope =
0.000000e+00 (4.18)
[Link].2 Case II: Considering, Tulluru point data of daily precipitation (LaRC NASA) for
03-Jan-1981 to 25-Feb-2020,
Table 4.9.9 Tulluru Point Data Daily Precipitation Trend Results
For Time Period - 03-Jan-1981 to 25-Feb-2020 Value
Bias corrected prewhitened Z 8.522e-01
Bias corrected prewhitened Sen‟s slope 0.000e+00
Bias corrected prewhitened S 4.748e+05
Bias corrected prewhitened Kendall‟s Tau 4.646e-03
Bootstrapped p 0.8
Therefore, insignificant increasing trend at 95% confidence level and Sen‟s slope =
0.000e+00 (4.19)
Hence, trend results show that magnitude i.e. slope of trend from Sen‟s slope [from (4.16),
(4.17), (4.18) and (4.19)] obtained for precipitation time series from various other sources and
time series remains same.
4.9.3 Storm Water Management Model [SWMM] Calibration and Validation
Following table gives observed precipitation data over various areas and from various sources
which is used for further calibration purpose.
Table 4.9.10 Observed Precipitation Data

Precipitation,
[Link]. Area Time Period Source
mm
Proposed From 01-Jan-1982 IMD, Gannavaram
1 5286.78
Amaravati City to 28-Feb-1989 Station
From 01-Mar-
Mangalagiri
2 1989 to 31-Jul- 27552.30 AP CRDA / AMRDA
mandal
2014
From 01-Mar-
3 Tulluru mandal 1989 to 31-Jul- 24327.06 AP CRDA / AMRDA
2014

Considering Weighted Mean method,

Average rainfall over Mangalagiri and Tulluru mandals = P1W1 + P2W2 (4.20)
where, P1 = Precipitation over Managalagiri mandal = 27552.30 mm
P2 = Precipitation over Tulluru mandal = 24327.06 mm
A1
W1 = Thiessen weight for Managalagiri mandal precipitation = (4.21)
A
A2
W2 = Thiessen weight for Tulluru mandal precipitation = (4.22)
A

where,
A1 = Area of Thiessen polygon of Mangalagiri mandal

130
A2 = Area of Thiessen polygon of Tulluru mandal
∑A = Total area of Thiessen polygon
As Mangalagiri and Tadepalli mandals are in close proximity,
Total no. of villages in Mangalagiri mandal including that of Tadepalli mandal = 8+ 3 =11

Total no. of villages in Tulluru mandal = 20

Adopting, importance factor of 0.94 for W1 and W2 to account for uncertainties and
calibration purpose,
11
Thus, W1 = 0.94  31 = 0.3335
20
W2 = 0.94  31 = 0.6065

Average rainfall over Mangalagiri and Tulluru mandals = P1W1 + P2W2

= 27552.30  0.3335 + 24327.06 
0.6065
Therefore, Average rainfall over Mangalagiri and Tulluru mandals = 23943.05 mm
Thus, observed precipitation in proposed Amaravti city area for the period from 01-Jan-1982
to31-Jul-2014 = 2 x 23943.05 + 5286.78 = 53172.88 mm
For SWMM simulation sub-basin wise, total precipitation is considered from SWAT TAMU
data sets.
Table 4.9.11 NSE Check for Total Runoff

Total
Total SWMM Runoff
Precipitation Observed
Sub- Precipitation Simulated Coefficient
from Total
basin from SWMM Total Runoff, from SWMM
Observed data, Runoff, mm
Model, mm mm Model
mm
1 53085.09 33859.21 53172.88 0.638 33924.30
2 53086.09 34225.42 53172.88 0.645 34296.51
3 53085.09 33766.53 53172.88 0.636 33817.95
4 53085.09 34123.38 53172.88 0.643 34190.16
5 53085.09 33796.69 53172.88 0.637 33871.12
6 53085.09 33963.58 53172.88 0.640 34030.64
7 53085.09 34690.56 53172.88 0.653 34721.89
8 53085.09 33940.30 53172.88 0.639 33977.47
9 53084.09 33803.52 53172.88 0.637 33871.12
10 53085.09 33778.27 53172.88 0.636 33817.95
11 53085.09 33430.33 53172.88 0.630 33498.91
Thus, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency for Total Runoff, NSE = 0.96

131
 35000
Sub-basin wise Total Runoff, mm -
Sub-basin wise Total Observed Vs SWMM Simulated
SWMM Simulated

Runoff, mm 34500

34000

R² = 0.998
33500

33000
33000 33500 34000 34500 35000
Observed Sub-basin wise Total Runoff, mm

Fig. 4.9.6 Sub-basin wise Total Runoff, mm - Observed Vs SWMM Simulated

Table 4.9.12 Mandal wise Maximum Daily Rainfall

(Source: AP CRDA/AMRDA)
[Link]. Name of Mandal Maximum daily rainfall, mm/day
1 Mangalagiri 203.00
2 Tulluru 183.00
Percentage change in maximum precipitation over two mandals = 9.85%
Thus, adopting the above percentage change as percentage increase for maximum
precipitation to account for uncertainties and calibration purpose,
Considering, maximum precipitation from Mangalagiri mandal = 203.00 x 1.0985 = 223.00
mm/day.
Table 4.9.13 NSE Check for Peak Runoff

Sub-
Peak Runoff Peak Runoff Peak Runoff from
Sub- basin
from SWMM Coefficient from observed maximum
basin Area,
2 Model, m3/s SWAT Model precipitation, m3/s
km
1 2.222 6.39 0.87 4.99
2 17.470 50.41 0.95 42.65
3 1.729 4.97 0.90 4.01
4 14.880 42.77 0.85 32.58
5 11.870 34.12 0.94 28.67
6 1.773 5.10 0.89 4.09
7 5.346 15.36 0.94 13.03
8 8.446 24.28 0.94 20.42
9 2.754 7.92 0.94 6.70
10 1.957 5.63 0.92 4.64
11 3.565 10.22 0.78 7.16
Thus, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency for Peak Runoff, NSE = 0.877

132
 60
Sub-basin wise Peak Runoff, m3/s -
Sub-basin wise Peak Runoff, m3/s Observed Vs SWMM Simulated
50

40
SWMM Simulated

30

20
R² = 0.994

10

0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Observed
Sub-basin wise Peak Runoff, m3/s

Fig. 4.9.7 Sub-basin wise Peak Runoff, m3/s - Observed Vs SWMM Simulated

Table 4.9.14 Validation Table

Type of Runoff Coefficient of determination, R2 Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, NSE

Total Runoff, mm 0.998 0.960

Peak Runoff, m3/s 0.994 0.877

Validation results from above Table 4.9.14 affirm that observed and SWMM simulated runoff
results are in very good agreement for the considered study area i.e. proposed Amaravati city
of Andhra Pradesh.

133
 CHAPTER 5

CONCLUSIONS
5.1 Summary
The present study is aimed to find a sustainable and resilient stormwater drainage system for
urban areas, to study the impact of urbanization on storm water runoff, to assess the impact of
climate change on urban storm water and to explore the reuse of storm water considering
proposed Amaravati city, Andhra Pradesh, India as study area. Various studies carried to date
are reviewed and set the methodology to undertake various studies which are hydrological
modelling using SWAT software, climate change impact assessment on precipitation and
temperature using various Mann-Kendall trend tests, Sen‟s slope estimator and R
programming, Storm water Network Model using StormCAD software, Stormwater
Management Model [SWMM] using SWMM software, impacts of urbanization on surface
water quality of the receiving waters i.e. river in the vicinity, impacts of urbanization on
groundwater levels and quality and various reuse options of available stormwater. All the set
objectives are studied in detail and solutions and the possible options are found. Following
section 5.2 provides details of various significant findings of different studies carried.

5.2 Significant Findings

Following sub-sections give details on various significant findings in the present study.

5.2.1 Hydrological Modelling

Following are the conclusions from the present hydrological modelling study using SWAT
software for the proposed Amaravati city of Andhra Pradesh state, India.
 Hydrological models with actual data for the period from 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
and with projected data for the period from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050 have
developed for the considered study area i.e. proposed Amaravati city using SWAT
software.
 Total catchment area of the study region is 72.012 km2 and the catchment is divided
into 11 number of sub-catchments.
 Hydrological model with actual data is developed for simulation length of 36 years
i.e. from 01-Jan-1979 to 31-Jul-2014with warm-up period of 3 years, and HRUs of 43
number.
 Hydrological model with projected data is developed for simulation length of 37 years
i.e. from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050 with no warm-up period to get continuity in
simulation with actual data period, and HRUs of 43 number.
134
  Total runoff from entire catchment is 162.956 m3/sec from SWAT hydrological model
of actual data for the period from 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014.
 Total runoff from entire catchment is 122.833 m3/sec from SWAT hydrological model
of projected data for the period from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050.
 Peak runoff is computed using modified rational formula of SWAT Theoretical
Documentation Version 2009.
 Total peak runoff from entire catchment is 191.28 m3/sec with actual data SWAT
model for the period from 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014.
 Total peak runoff from entire catchment is 140.04 m3/sec with projected data SWAT
model for the period from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050.
 Peak runoff from each sub-catchment is also computed using rational formula with
maximum daily rainfall of mandal(s) [sub-region(s)] within the study area and
compared with that using modified rational formula of SWAT Theoretical
Documentation for validation of SWAT model being developed.
 The obtained maximum inflows and outflows for each sub-basin remain same for all

the periods of simulation when LULC type is changed from agriculture, AGRL to

built-up, URHD.

 Revised curve number 98 results for total runoff from entire catchment for period of
simulation from 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014 as 168.441 m3/sec. Revised curve
number 98 has provided total runoff from entire catchment for period of simulation
from 01-Aug-2014 to 31-Dec-2050 as 129.089 m3/sec. Thus, total peak runoff results
are very close when curve numbers of 85.82 and 98 are obtained for both the periods
of simulation.
 Model validation of peak runoff results indicates that coefficient of determination, R2
and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, NSE with actual data are 1.00 and 0.94 respectively.
 Model validation of peak runoff results indicates that coefficient of determination, R2
and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, NSE with projected data are 1.00 and 0.993
respectively.
The obtained results of hydrologic cycle parameters including runoff of proposed Amaravati
city are useful and necessary to provide efficient stormwater management measures and/or
practices which will enable the considered proposed city to perform as a Water Sensitive City
for longer duration.

135
5.2.2 Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Precipitation
From the present climate change impact assessment study, following are the various
conclusions
i. Precipitation time series of various time periods of the considered study area, both of
historical and projected RCP 4.5 scenario are significantly autocorrelated.
ii. Bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias corrected pre-whitening
technique is applied as a Modified Mann-Kendall test for trend analysis.
iii. R Programming is used as a statistical analysis tool which contains “modifiedmk”
package to perform various modified Mann-Kendall trend tests.
iv. Most of the trends of precipitation time series of different time periods both of
historical and projected RCP 4.5 scenario are insignificant increasing trends.
v. Averaging of all the Sen‟s slopes method is adopted to find the characteristics of trend
of various precipitation time series.
Using CORDEX daily precipitation data, average Sen‟s slope of historical data is 1.63E-06
mm per year with decreasing trend. Also, average Sen‟s slope of RCP 4.5 scenario is 9.30E-
06 mm per year with decreasing trend while that for RCP 8.5 scenario is 4.28E-06 mm per
year with decreasing trend. Validation of the obtained results is performed which affirms well
agreement of trend analysis outcomes. Also, coefficient of determination, R2 remains 1
between high-resolution and CORDEX data. Innovative trend analysis of historical time
period data of 1951-2005 period also indicates that there is no trend of daily precipitation
CORDEX data and these results are validated with Wavelet-ANN hybrid model application.
Innovative trend analysis of RCP 4.5 scenario time series of precipitation for 2006-2099
period shows that there is insignificant decreasing trend. Further, for RCP 8.5 scenario of
2006-2099 time period, innovative trend analysis gives results that there is insignificant
increasing trend.
Thus, it can be concluded that the effect of climate change on the considered study area i.e.
proposed Amaravati city, Andhra Pradesh, India is approximately 0.5% per decade with
regard to precipitation. The obtained assessment of climate change impacts on proposed
Amaravati city are useful and necessary to provide efficient stormwater management which
will craft the considered proposed city to perform as a Water Sensitive City for longer
duration.
5.2.3 Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Temperature
In the present study, the impacts of climate change on temperature for the study area are
assessed for the time period 1981-2021. The trend analysis results indicate that the
temperature is assessed as having a trend at 1.58e-04 % per decade with increasing trend.
Also, the minimum temperature is determined to have a trend of 1.12 % per decade with
136
increasing trend. Further, the maximum temperature is determined to have a trend of 0.84 %
per decade with increasing trend. The findings of the present study can help for assessment of
climate change impacts on temperature for any existing and/or proposed city for longer
duration.
5.2.4 Stormwater Network Model [StormCAD Model]
Following are the various conclusions from the present Stormwater network model
development study of the considered study area i.e. proposed Amaravati city
Amaravati stormwater network model is designed for a discharge of 23 m3/sec with 10%
additional discharge to accommodate unanticipated flows including climate change effect.
A most efficient rectangular channel as box section with dimensions as, bed width = 3.8 m,
1
depth of flow = 1.9 m, slope = with a free board = 0.6 m is proposed to adopt for
950

stormwater network of proposed Amaravati city, Andhra Pradesh state, India.

Amaravati stormwater network model contains number of conduits = 167, number of
manholes = 167 and total length of network = 145.59 km.
Storm water which may flow on the road and adjacent to the road may be allowed to flow
into the network conduit in the proximity through proper inlet and gutter system.
Suitable outfall arrangement needs to be provided with backflow control system with gates.
During the flood flow to Krishna river in the vicinity with HFL [High Flood Level] exceeds
proposed invert of outfall i.e. +21.30 m of the developed stormwater network, proper
pumping arrangements are to be provided to discharge total peak flow through the network to
a d/s discharge point where flood flow in the Krishna river is much lower than invert of
discharging rising main as per Manual on Storm Water Drainage Systems, CPHEEO (2019)
guidelines and/or recommendations.
Total peak flow through Amaravati stormwater network model which is developed would be
allowed to discharge in to Krishna river in the vicinity only when there is normal flow in the
river.
Although various discharge options proposed as discussed above, it is highly recommended
that if there is even flow higher than normal flow in the Krishna river, any amount of flow
through proposed network has to be discharged or diverted into the proposed canal system
and/or Low Impact Development [LID] controls with Best management Practices [BMPs]
which will make stormwater management of proposed Amaravati city as sustainable and/or
resilient and ensures the planned city as Water Sensitive City.
The proposed stormwater network model of proposed Amaravati city is useful and necessary
to provide efficient stormwater management which will craft the considered proposed city to
perform as a Water Sensitive City for longer duration.

137
5.2.5 Storm Water Management Model [SWMM]
From the results obtained of various hydrological and field scenarios i.e., No LID and LID
control options which are also Best Management Practices [BMPs], number of conclusions
can be drawn. Following are the key conclusions.

OPTION - (1):
NO LID option is considered as 9.52% Impervious, zero percent Zero Depression Impervious
and Evaporation from Monthly averages.
Total peak runoff reduced slightly in other NO LID options such as (i) with 9.52%
impervious, zero percent Zero Depression Impervious Area, Evaporation from temperature
and (ii) with 100% Impervious, 100% Zero Depression Impervious Area, Evaporation from
temperature with reference to reference to NO LID option as mentioned above (1).
Substantial total peak runoff reduction from entire catchment can be occurred for following
LID control options with reference to NO LID option as mentioned above (1).
i. with 80% Impervious Area, 80% Zero Depression Impervious Area, Bio-Retention
Cell for 20% Area – Percentage of total peak runoff reduction is 46.18 %
ii. with 70% Impervious Area, 70% Zero Depression Impervious Area, Bio-Retention
Cell for 30% Area - Percentage of total peak runoff reduction is 74.54 %
iii. with 60% Impervious Area, 60% Zero Depression Impervious Area, Bio-Retention
Cell for 40% Area - Percentage of total peak runoff reduction is 97.83 %
iv. with 50% Impervious Area, 50% Zero Depression Impervious Area, Bio-Retention
Cell for 50% Area - Percentage of total peak runoff reduction is 97.45 %
v. With 50% Impervious Area, 50% Zero Depression Area and 50% Area with
Infiltration Trench - Percentage of total peak runoff reduction is 98.30 %
vi. With 50% Impervious Area, 50% Zero Depression Impervious Area and 50% Area
with Rain Garden - Percentage of total peak runoff reduction is 36.61 %
vii. With 50% Impervious Area, 50% Zero Depression Impervious Area and 50% Area
with Vegetative Swale - Percentage of total peak runoff reduction is 35.66 %
viii. There may be numerous LID control options providing for certain part of each sub-
catchment area which may attain slight to substantial total peak runoff reduction with
reference to No LID option as mentioned in option (1) above.
ix. Weighted mean method and importance factor is adopted for calibration purpose.
x. Coefficient of determination, R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, NSE values confirm
that observed and SWMM simulated runoff results are in very good agreement
Thus, above results and conclusions are evident for highlighting that provision of various LID
controls and BMP options even for certain part of each sub-catchment area can attenuate total
138
runoff, total peak runoff significantly.
The obtained results of hydrologic cycle parameters including runoff of proposed Amaravati
city are useful and necessary to provide efficient stormwater management measures and/or
practices which will enable the considered proposed Smart city to implement as a Water
Sensitive City for longer duration.
5.2.6 Reuse of Stormwater excess study
Following are the various options proposed from the complete present study to endorse
sustainable and/or resilient integrated stormwater management of proposed Amaravati city to
enact as a water sensitive city for longer duration than anticipated.
i. Canal system
ii. LID Controls with BMP options
iii. Combination of both the above options
Thus, summary of conclusions from the entire present study duly considering all studies and
modeling aspects which are proposed and/or recommended for efficient, sustainable and/or
resilient integrated stormwater management of proposed Amaravati city to endorse as a water
sensitive city for longer duration are as mentioned below
Option 1 – Adopt the LID controls in each sub-catchment along with canal system in
each village
a. Providing, Bio-Retention Cell LID option with 60% Impervious Area, 60% Zero
Depression Impervious Area, Bio- Retention Cell for 40% Area for each sub-catchment
Consider to adopt,
i. Area of each LID unit = 2 acres = 8093.7 m2
ii. Surface width per unit = 500 m
iii. Percentage initially saturated = 0, Percentage of Non-LID impervious area treated =
95%
iv. Percentage of Non-LID pervious area treated = 95%
b. In each village which is transformed as an integrated part of proposed Amaravati city,
Provide an open channel with the dimensions as mentioned below
Bed width, b = 3.9 m
Depth of flow, d = 3.16 m,
1
Slope, S =
1000
Free board = 0.6 m
c. Stormwater network system as underground gravity flow system
d. In-situ storage / percolation within or around premises

139
Option 2 – Adopt the LID controls in each sub-catchment along with storage ponds in
each village and town
a. Providing, Bio-Retention Cell LID option with 60% Impervious Area, 60% Zero
Depression Impervious Area, Bio- Retention Cell for 40% Area for each sub-catchment
Consider to adopt,
v. Area of each LID unit = 2 acres = 8093.7 m2
vi. Surface width per unit = 500 m
vii. Percentage initially saturated = 0, Percentage of Non-LID impervious area treated =
95%
viii. Percentage of Non-LID pervious area treated = 95%
b. Provide 90 number of stormwater storage ponds which may act as rain gardens with the
following dimensions
Area of each storage pond =0.25 acres with allowable depth of storage = 1m
c. Stormwater network system as underground gravity flow system
d. In-situ storage / percolation within or around premises
5.2.7 Impacts of urbanization on surface water quality of the river in the vicinity
Assessment of impacts of urbanization on surface water quality of Krishna river which is in
the vicinity of study area is performed. Trend analysis of various parameters characteristics
with regard to their concentration variations prior to and at the commencement of
urbanization is also carried. From the trend analysis of various parameters prior to
urbanization using R programming, significant decreasing trend is found in DO, DO [Sat],
Fe, NH3, SAR and Na, no trend in coliforms. From the trend analysis of various parameters at
the onset of urbanization using R programming, it is obtained that pH, total coliform has
shown significant decreasing trend while no trend is observed in faecal coliform. At the
beginning of urbanization, increase of concentration/value of certain parameters with regard
to tolerance limits specified by BIS is observed especially in pH, DO, total and faecal
coliforms. Thus, there is a need to efficiently manage water quality of receiving waters due to
urbanization to reduce pollution levels within allowable limits otherwise they can impact
adversely the water quality of receiving waters i.e. river in the vicinity. Also, there is a matter
of concern to treat river waters to comply with standards to make them fit for various uses.
5.2.8 Impacts of urbanization on groundwater levels and quality
In the present study, trend analysis of groundwater is carried for the city area using Mann-
Kendall test, Sen‟s slope estimator and R programming. It is obtained that most of the trends
of various quality parameters including groundwater level below ground level are
insignificant and decreasing. The declining trends are might be due to less precipitation, more
exploitation of groundwater resources, commencement of urbanization for the proposed city,
140
climate change, and land use/land cover patterns. However, parameter wise study may give
more insight on drivers for trends. Groundwater level is having an insignificant decreasing
trend at 5% significance level with a decline of 0.152 mm per year. F is with a significant
increasing trend with an increase of 0.01 mg/l per [Link] is with an insignificant decreasing
trend with a decrease of 0.21 mg/l per year. Cl is having an insignificant decreasing trend
with a decrease of 1.86 mg/l per year. CO3 is having an insignificant increasing trend with a
decrease of 0.01 mg/l per year. Total alkalinity is having an insignificant increasing trend
with an increase of 3.06 mg/l per year. Total hardness is with an insignificant decreasing
trend with a decrease of 0.9 mg/l per year. The findings of the present study can help to
evaluate trends of groundwater of any existing or proposed city. Further, parameter-wise
studies during various stages of urbanization of proposed Amaravati city may add more
insights on the groundwater quality due to urbanization.
5.3 Scope for further/future study
i. Suitability of available stormwater for drinking purposes with regard to quantity and
quality may be undertaken for the proposed Amaravati city.
ii. Detailed parameter wise studies to ascertain surface water quality and groundwater
quality to assess impacts of urbanization can be studied in future.
iii. Wastewater quantity and treatment needed for proposed Amaravati city can be
explored in detail.
iv. Flood control management mechanisms may be developed in future for propose
Amaravati city.

141
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 List of Journal Publications

Rentachintala, [Link], Muni Reddy, M.G., Mohapatra, Pranab Kumar (2022)

―Urban stormwater management for sustainable and resilient measures and practices: a
review‖ Water Science & Technology, 85(4), 1120-1140 doi: 10.2166/wst.2022.017

Rentachintala, [Link], Muni Reddy, M.G., Mohapatra, Pranab Kumar (2022)

―Trends of surface water quality of the Krishna River, India during the urbanization process‖
Environmental Quality Management, 1-11, doi:10.1002/tqem.21860

Rentachintala, [Link], Muni Reddy, M.G. (2021) ―Trends of groundwater level and
quality of the proposed Amaravati city, Andhra Pradesh, India‖ Journal of Indian Water
Resources Society, 41(3&4), 1-9

Rentachintala, [Link], Muni Reddy, M.G., Mohapatra, Pranab Kumar (2021)

“Climate change impacts assessment for proposed Amaravati city, India‖ Theoretical and
Applied Climatology, Under Review

List of Book Chapter(s)

Rentachintala, [Link], Muni Reddy, M.G., Mohapatra, Pranab Kumar (2022)

―Network Model for Sustainable and/or Resilient Integrated Stormwater Management of a
Water Sensitive City – A Case Study‖ Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, Vol. 207, B.B.
Das et al. (Eds)_ Recent Developments in Sustainable Infrastructure (ICRDSI-2020)—GEO-
TRA-ENV-WRM, 978-981-16-7508-9, 512771_1_En, (Chapter 16) In Press

List of International Conference Proceedings

Rentachintala, [Link], Muni Reddy, M.G., Mohapatra, Pranab Kumar (2021)

―Assessment of climate change impacts on temperature variation: The case study of
Amaravati city, Andhra Pradesh state, India‖ Pg.254, HYDRO’21 – International Conference,
23-25, Dec’21, Surat, India
Rentachintala, [Link], Muni Reddy, M.G., Mohapatra, Pranab Kumar (2021)
―SWMM based Integrated Urban Stormwater Management for a Water Sensitive City: A
Case Study of Proposed Amaravati City, Andhra Pradesh‖ Pg.561-572,, HYDRO’20 –
International Conference, 26-28, Mar’21, Rourkela, India, ISBN:978-93-90631-56-8.

Rentachintala, [Link], Muni Reddy, M.G., Mohapatra, Pranab Kumar (2020)

―Network Model for Sustainable and/or Resilient Integrated Stormwater Management of a
Water Sensitive City – A Case Study‖ 6-6, ICRDSI’20 – International Conference, 18-21,
Dec’20, Bhubaneswar, India
 © 2022 The Authors Water Science & Technology Vol 85 No 4, 1120 doi: 10.2166/wst.2022.017

Urban stormwater management for sustainable and resilient measures and practices:
a review

Lakshmi Raghu Nagendra Prasad Rentachintalaa,*, M. G. Muni Reddya and Pranab Kumar Mohapatrab
a
Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering(A), Andhra University, Visakhapatnam 530003, Andhra Pradesh, India
b
Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Palaj, Gandhinagar 382355, Gujarat, India
*Corresponding author. E-mail: rlrnagendra@[Link]

ABSTRACT

Stormwater drainage in urban areas has become a challenge due to the rapid and random growth of urban areas, removal of vegetation,
reduction in the effectiveness of drainage infrastructure, and climate change. Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS), Low Impact Devel-
opment (LID), Best Management Practices (BMP), Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) and the Sponge City Programme (SCP) are various
aspects for urban stormwater management in a few parts of the world. Urban hydrology plays a vital role in the urban stormwater manage-
ment system. However, optimal results can only be possible when the combined effect of climate change, land use patterns, reuse,
treatment, ecology, and societal aspects are considered. There is a need to provide sustainable and resilient urban drainage systems to
manage stormwater more efficiently. The present review has thoroughly discussed various features related to urban stormwater manage-
ment, highlighted key drivers, identified knowledge gaps in each of the measures and/or practices, recommended future research needs
of urban stormwater management to become sustainable and resilient. Integrated modelling approaches considering various key drivers
including reuse and real time governance enables stormwater management to be sustainable and resilient in urban environments.

Key words: climate change, key drivers, real time governance, reuse, urban hydrology, urbanization

HIGHLIGHTS

• A review of the state of the art on integrated urban stormwater management (USWM) is presented.
• Various aspects affecting integrated USWM including climate change, water quality, reuse and treatment perspectives of USW are dis-
cussed.
• Various innovative, advanced integrated USWM measures and/or practices such as LID, BMP, SUDS, WSUD and SCP are reviewed.
• Specified critical remarks and expressed views on future research needs for integrated USWM are given.

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licence (CC BY 4.0), which permits copying, adaptation and
redistribution, provided the original work is properly cited ([Link]

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 Water Science & Technology Vol 85 No 4, 1121

GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

1. INTRODUCTION
The hydrology of a place influences the availability of water at that place. Various processes such as runoff, infiltration and
evaporation associated with hydrologic cycle affect the presence, movement and distribution of precipitation in an area
(Fletcher et al. 2013). Water is needed for different human activities and purposes and is becoming scarce due to poor man-
agement rather than availability. In this context, there is an increasing need for the management of water especially in urban
areas where the water requirement is substantially higher. As stormwater is available from nature, conservation of stormwater
is of utmost importance in urban environments and requires urgent attention. For effective and efficient stormwater manage-
ment, there are various practices followed around the world. The present paper reviews the state of the art in different
schemes for stormwater management, analysis of results for each of the schemes, specifies critical remarks and expresses
views on future research needs. Stormwater management is becoming a challenge in various stages of its implementation,
starting from the planning stage, due to expansion of the urban area, change in existing soil permeability characteristics by
construction activities, decrease in vegetation, climate change, change in rainfall and subsequent runoff patterns.
Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS) (Fryd et al. 2010; Zhou 2014; Ellis & Lundy 2016; Lim & Lu 2016; Casal-
Campos et al. 2018; Arahuetes and Cantos 2019; Altobelli et al. 2020; Kändler et al. 2020; Lin et al. 2020; Kwon et al. 2020;

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 Water Science & Technology Vol 85 No 4, 1122

Hager et al. 2021), Low Impact Development (LID) and Best Management Practices (BMP) (Strecker et al. 2001; Dietz 2007;
Motsinger et al. 2016; Mani et al. 2019; Nowogoń ski 2020; Men et al. 2020; Song et al. 2020; Zhang et al. 2020a, 2020b;
Khurelbaatar et al. 2021), Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) (Lariyah et al. 2011; Beecham & Razzaghmanesh 2015;
Siekmann & Siekmann 2015; Marino et al. 2018; Ahmed et al. 2019) and Sponge City Programmes (SCP) (Wang et al.
2018) are some of the stormwater management schemes that are being adopted in different countries.
SUDS, WSUD and LID concepts have related aims such as managing the urban water through a sustainable approach,
preserving the flow conditions close to nature, maintaining the water quality and that of receiving waters, and conserving
water resources overall (Fletcher et al. 2013). BMP cover practices that contain non-structural (procedural or operational)
and structural (engineered or built infrastructure) characteristics (Fletcher et al. 2015).
The SCP is meant to enhance urban water resilience due to growth and climate change with the key goals of mitigation of
waterlogging and floods, enhancement of quality of water, refurbishment of the water’s role on ecology, use of rainwater as a
resource and improving the microclimate of urban environments (Wang et al. 2018).

1.1. Novel aspects of the review

Although there have been various reviews on the subject (Hatt et al. 2006; Chouli 2006; Dietz 2007; Roy et al. 2008; Gabe
et al. 2009; Fletcher et al. 2013; Hamel et al. 2013; Zhou 2014; Ellis & Lundy 2016; Sörensen et al. 2016; Ahammed 2017;
Palazzo 2018; Mishra et al. 2020), the present review is novel in considering various aspects for urban stormwater manage-
ment to value-add prevailing measures and practices to be more sustainable and resilient. The aspects related to urban
stormwater management such as LID, BMP, SUDS/SuDS and the SCP are reviewed with regard to knowledge gaps and
future research needs which brings novelty to the present review in covering all the existing measures and practices of
urban stormwater management and further proposing the application of real-time governance and reuse options that enhance
the present review to the next level regarding urban stormwater management. Also, climate change aspects, urbanization
aspects and their impacts on urban hydrology and ecology, water quantity and quality characteristics are reviewed thoroughly
and we recommended various options to improve present measures and practices for urban stormwater management to be
sustainable and resilient. The present review is also described in the form of tables (Tables 1–3) and figures (Figures 1 and 2)
for better and easy interpretation. Table 4 presents key drivers of integrated urban stormwater management. Thus, overall, the
present review is certainly and thoroughly novel in the review of urban stormwater management with discussion, review,
mentioning key drivers, highlighting knowledge gaps and suggesting future research needs for various measures and practices
to attain integrated, sustainable and resilient urban stormwater management.

2. LOW IMPACT DEVELOPMENT AND BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES

LID refers to the principles, techniques and practices that can be adapted to develop certain urban activities duly maintaining
the equilibrium of natural processes and resources.
LID and Low-Impact Urban Design and Development (LIUDD) are methods for urban development that use various
urban planning and design policies and strategies to conserve natural resource systems and reduce infrastructure costs
with a cost-effective approach and mitigate potential environmental impacts (Montazerolhodjah 2019).
Various studies have been designed for the application LID and BMP (Motsinger et al. 2016). Certain LID options have
been found to be effective such as pervious pavements and bioretention (Dietz 2007; Davis et al. 2009). Bioretention practice,
although effective, needs to be associated with hydrologic, water quality and environmental aspects (Davis et al. 2009). Also,
BMPs may be applied to water quality for better treatment performance (Motsinger et al. 2016). Various approaches exist for
implementation of LID and to make them BMP. However, LID implementation is affected by associated problems (Strecker
et al. 2001). During implementation, certain limitations were found while practicing LIDs such as high contaminant loading
areas, steep slopes, rock depth and rise of water table (Dietz 2007). Thus, there is a continuous need for carrying out research
on LID and BMPs for efficient implementation (Dietz 2007). Furthermore, LID approaches had been continuously studied
for their integration with various novel techniques for better performance and wide range of applications. Rain barrels, per-
meable walkways or bioretention reservoirs have been applied by combining LID with StormWater Management Models
(SWMM) for reduction of catchment imperviousness (Nowogoń ski 2020). In the Sponge City, SWMM was integrated
with a preference-inspired co-evolutionary algorithm using goal vectors (PICEA-g) for LID practices (Men et al. 2020). An
approach combined with SWMM and the multi-objective antilon optimization algorithm (MOALOA) was applied to recog-
nize stormwater control measures (SCMs) as LID for control of runoff and mitigation of flood (Mani et al. 2019). Also,

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 Water Science & Technology Vol 85 No 4, 1123

Table 1 | Review of research on integrated stormwater management

Reference Year Main aspect Other aspects Application Findings

Khurelbaatar (2021) LID MUST- B Capacity of urban

et al. stormwater management
Dubey et al. (2020) Hydrology Climate change SWAT Evapotranspiration
Men et al. (2020) Low Impact Preference-inspired co- SWMM LIDs for Sponge City
Development evolutionary algorithm
(LID) using goal vectors
(PICEA-g)
Nowogoń ski (2020) Low Impact SWMM LIDs for imperviousness
Development reduction
(LID)
Song et al. (2020) Low Impact Reliability evaluation Performance of existing
Development technique systems for flood disasters
(LID)
Zhang et al. (2020a, LID Interdisciplinary criterion SWMM Assessment of stormwater
2020b) control for runoff volume
Anim et al. (2019) Stream hydraulics 2D Hydraulics Benefits of Stormwater
Model Control Measures (SCMs)
Zang et al. (2019) Hydrology Land use SWAT Daily flood peak and
annual runoff
Mani et al. (2019) Hydrology Flood mitigation SWMM, MOALOA LID Stormwater Control
Measures (SCMs)
Motsinger et al. (2016) Best Management Water quality Impact of various BMPs
Practice (BMP) implementation
Kang et al. (2016) Urban drainage Climate change XP-SWMM Climate change
Saraswat et al. (2016) Hydrology Climate change Runoff
Liu et al. (2016) Hydrology Water quality Runoff
Zhu et al. (2016) Hydrology Water quality Projection pursuit Flooding risks
method, ordinary
Kriging method
Costa et al. (2015) Hydrology Water quality MT3DMS Integrated Urban (IU) river
corridor management
Hung Chang and (2014) Rainfall Extremes Floods and droughts
Irvine
Teemusk & (2007), Hydrology Green roof Runoff
Mander and (2013)
Lee et al.
Ficklin et al. (2013) Hydrology Sedimentation SWAT BMP
Fletcher et al. (2013) Hydrology Water quality ISWM
Hamel et al. (2013) Hydrology Urbanization Baseflow
Dessu & Melesse (2012) Hydrology SWAT Rainfall–Runoff simulation
Dixon & Earls (2012) Hydrology Land Use SWAT Hydrographs
Hirschman et al. (2011) Hydrology Climate change Stormwater management
Huong & (2011) Flooding Climate change EPA-SWMM 5 with Runoff
Pathirana Brezo
Singh and Gosain (2011) Hydrology Climate change SWAT Climate change
Ghaffari et al. (2010) Hydrology Land use SWAT Runoff
Mejia & Moglen (2010) Hydrology Hydrographs Impervious pattern

(Continued.)

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 Water Science & Technology Vol 85 No 4, 1124

Table 1 | Continued

Reference Year Main aspect Other aspects Application Findings

Davis et al. (2009) Bioretention Hydrologic, water quality and State of contemporary
environmental issues acquaintance of
bioretention
Bormann et al. (2009) Hydrology Land use SWAT and Land use scenarios
TOPLATS
Dhar & (2009) Hydrology SWAT Assessment of projected
Mazumdar parameters for farming
operations
Nie et al. (2009) Flooding Climate change MOUSE Precipitation
Semadeni-Davies (2008) Climate change MOUSE (MOdel of Sustainable Urban Drainage
et al. and Urban SEwers) Systems (SUDS)
urbanization
Wang et al. (2008) Hydrology Climate change and land use SWAT Runoff
Wilby et al. (2008) Hydrology Climate change Flood frequency
Roy et al. (2008) Stormwater Sustainable Stormwater
Management Management
Dietz (2007) Low Impact Review of the current
Development condition and research
(LID) needs of LID
Van Rooijen et al. (2005) Hydrology Water supply, Irrigation VENSIM Water balance
Strecker et al. (2001) Best Management BMP efficiency
Practice (BMP)

assessment of performance of LID techniques had been carried. An evaluation of the performance of existing systems for
flood disasters using the distance measure method may be carried (Song et al. 2020). Also, an appraisal of LID performance
for stormwater control can be perfomed using SWMM with an interdisciplinary criterion (Zhang et al. 2020a, 2020b).
Furthermore, the evaluation of stormwater management at block level in urban areas with LIDs may be performed (Khurel-
baatar et al. 2021).
However, the application of various LID and BMPs for holistic urban stormwater management needs to be studied in much
more detail with advanced and novel approaches such as the Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI) and
Machine Learning (ML) for real-time monitoring and control of water quantity and water quality to enhance stormwater
system performance concerning sustainable and resilient measures and practices.

3. HYDROLOGICAL ASPECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, URBANIZATION, AND RESILIENCE

The quality of input data is very much impacting parameters for modelling flows (Bormann et al. 2009). Also, a realistic rep-
resentation of scenarios of land use and the application of proper techniques for interpolation and representation of boundary
conditions of meteorology is very vital for the representation of data input (Bormann et al. 2009). Uncertainty remains the
bottleneck and needs to be properly accounted for in flow analysis even from the assessment of errors in precipitation
and peak flows (Wilby et al. 2008). The determination of frequencies of extreme flows needs assessed for varied character-
istics of climate change and the responses of the surface of the land to hydrological parameters (Wilby et al. 2008).
Runoff varies with land use type and in reaches in mountains, and runoff is increased with more grassland area and less
forested areas (Wang et al. 2008). Although runoff depends on precipitation, flow varies with temperature more during the
melting of snow in spring (Wang et al. 2008). The response of hydrology to changes in land cover is not linear and shows a
threshold tendency (Ghaffari et al. 2010). Surface runoff abruptly becomes more when rangeland removal is more than 60%
and this threshold is applicable even in the recharge process of groundwater (Ghaffari et al. 2010).

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Table 2 | Review of research on various water management and other aspects/practices

Reference Year Aspects studied Findings/outcomes

Hager et al. (2021) Integrated framework Decision support system for urban stormwater
Altobelli et al. (2020) Optimal management of urban Real-time control and green technologies
drainage systems (UDS)
Bell et al. (2020) BMPs Runoff control factors
Deng (2020) Low-cost adsorbents Treatment of urban stormwater
Kändler et al. (2020) Smart in-line storage system Real time controlled actuators
Lin et al. (2020) Framework for UDS (urban drainage Enhancement of optimization efficiency of UDS
systems) design
Lam et al. (2020) SWMPs (Stormwater management Chloride retention quantification and release
ponds)
Kwon et al. (2020) Urban drainage systems (UDS) A two-phase multi-scenario approach
Zabłocka & (2020) Sustainable SWM Retention tank
Capodaglio
Arahuetes and (2019) SuDS Climate change adaptations
Cantos
Casal-Campos et al. (2018) UDScapacity Key perceptions of UDS
Wang et al. (2018) IUWM Review of Sponge City
Li et al. (2016) Water quality and land use Landscape thresholds
Sörensen et al. (2016) Urban resilience with integrated flood Urban flood resilience
management
Ellis & Lundy (2016) SUDS Practices examination
Lim & Lu (2016) Small-scale distributed LID features Evaluation of Singapore’s ABC Waters Program
Buurman & Babovic (2015) A step-wise approach for designing Urban water resilience
adaptive systems
Beecham & (2015) Water quantity and quality Green roof systems
Razzaghmanesh
Zhou (2014) SUDS Emerging studies
Liu et al. (2013) Water quality, urbanization The threshold between Impervious surface area [ISA] and the
chemical indicators of water quality
Davis et al. (2010) Water quality Urban stormwater quality improvement methods
Fryd et al. (2010) Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems Planning and decision making processes
(SUDS)
Gabe et al. (2009) A top-down ‘planner’s approach’ and Integrated Urban Water Management (IUWM)
a bottom-up ‘community approach
Hatt et al. (2007) Water quality Biofilters
Tortajada (2006) Water management practices and Need for implementing latest technologies, efficient use of
strategies limited water resources, proper watershed management,
practicing water conservation measures
Hatt et al. (2006) Water quality Treatment methods for stormwater pollution control
Goonetilleke et al. (2005) Water quality Relationships between water quality and urban form
Chui (1997) Water quality Runoff
Cheong (1991) Water quality Runoff

The local area assessment is significant to find impacts of climate change on urban hydrology with regard to topography,
lithology, drainage areas recognition and land use/land cover variations and thus for the determination of the runoff coeffi-
cient (Saraswat et al. 2016). If runoff reduces through infiltration and further recharge of groundwater, then LID practices
become more resilient to climate change impacts (Hirschman et al. 2011). The changes in flood peak on a daily scale in

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Table 3 | Review of research on stormwater reuse and treatment

Reference Study

Valenca et al. (2021) Capability of biochar for removal of the Escherichia

coli (E. coli)
Valentukevičienė & Najafabadi (2020) and Zhang et al. (2020a, 2020b) Application of different sorbents
Tuttolomondo et al. (2020) Reuse of treated wastewater from wetlands
Zhang et al. (2020a, 2020b) Suspended solids removal
Trajkovic et al. (2020) LID techniques for removal of pollutants
Ekka et al. (2020) Grass swales, sediment and heavy metal removal
Zabłocka & Capodaglio (2020) Retention tank
Rodak et al. (2020) Stormwater control devices
Zhang et al. (2020a, 2020b) and Kog (2020) Application of membranes for high-quality reclaimed
water
Zhan et al. (2020) Cost–effectiveness of treatment system design for
stormwater reuse
Ahmed et al. (2019) Removal of fecal indicators and pathogens
Ahmed et al. (2019) Efficiency of different risk assessments with
stormwater reuse
Montazerolhodjah (2019) Low-impact urban design and development (LIUDD)
Shen et al. (2019) Real-time control (RTC) strategies for biofilters
Jung et al. (2019) and Hatt et al. (2007) Application of biofilters to greywater treatment and
reuse
Rufino et al. (2018) and Marino et al. (2018) Participatory approach for WSUD
Goonetilleke et al. (2017), Gogate & Raval (2015), Maneewan & Roon (2017), Key obstacles to stormwater reuse
and Muirhead (2008)
Ishimatsu et al. (2017) Rain gardens
Ding (2017) BMP effectiveness for reuse of stormwater
Glover et al. (2019) Treatment of N-nitrosomorpholine (NMOR) for
potable reuse
Kazemi & Hill (2015) Permeable pavement basecourse aggregates
Lariyah et al. (2011) Overall performance of WSUD
Maharaj & Scholz (2010) Biochemical oxygen demand, total coliform
Begum & Rasul (2009) Green gully
Pétavy et al. (2007) Bulk sediment re-use after the treatment
Chouli (2006) Source control techniques

scenarios of high precipitation remain the same as that in the scenario of average precipitation on modelling at the daily scale
(Zang et al. 2019). The assessment needs to be quantitative in nature in case of more flood hazards, which is significant for
urban planning and to prepare for disasters (Huong & Pathirana 2011).
Scenarios of climate change need to be well defined for urban hydrology to assess its impacts on flooding and combined
sewer overflows (CSO) (Nie et al. 2009). Climate change may result in more stormwater inflows and infiltration into sewers
and cause decrease in system capacity (Semadeni-Davies et al. 2008). Adaptation to climate change scenarios may be possible
with the application of SUDS and not allowing stormwater into combined sewers (Semadeni-Davies et al. 2008).
Climate change may impact certain parameters such as loss of transmission, water content of soil, potential evapotranspira-
tion, evapotranspiration and reach lateral flow of river basins with the increasing trend for future scenarios (Dhar &
Mazumdar 2009). The impacts of climate change on river basin hydrology were assessed to be vital on an annual scale

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Figure 1 | Flow chart of urban hydrology characteristics study.

Figure 2 | Process diagram of integrated urban stormwater management.

(Singh & Gosain 2011; Dessu & Melesse 2012; Ficklin et al. 2013; Dubey et al. 2020). Impacts of climate change are more
important than those due to land cover changes (Hirschman et al. 2011; Huong & Pathirana 2011).
There are certain vital adaptations of stormwater to climate change, which are the development of roads and sidewalks
using porous materials, enhanced capacity of stormwater to cater for water supply and frequent flooding increase, revisions
to stormwater design criteria, revising transmission systems with regard to sea levels and improving the infrastructure of
stormwater (Hirschman et al. 2011). There is a need for future research to assess the implications of actual and simulated
meteorological data for long-term urban planning and the management of urban hydrology for efficient stormwater manage-
ment (Dixon & Earls 2012).
A three-step preparedness program for extremes that includes Preparation (vulnerability and risk identification, adaptive
capacity building, and monitoring), Response (information dissemination and relief action) and Recovery was recommended
for management of rainfall extremes (Hung Chang & Irvine 2014). There are certain measures to mitigate urban floods such

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Table 4 | Key drivers of integrated urban stormwater management

Key driver Characteristics

Data Data need to be available for the period of model development at regular and continuous intervals. Also,
data needs to be reliable, accurate, and suit the purpose of study both in space and time.
Model development Model can be developed on the intent of the study as quantitative and qualitative. Also, model can be
prepared as conceptual, detailed, deterministic and stochastic considering various other influencing
parameters and required outcomes of the study.
Assessment of model Developed model needs to be assessed with proper calibration, validation and uncertainty analysis and
techniques.
Process Aspects that can be ascertained from the model may be of hydrology, hydraulics, ecology, societal and
economics etc. Furthermore, each of these aspects may be subcategorized and prioritized based on the
requirements of the study.
Monitoring and maintenance of Way of implementation of the developed model needs to be monitored at regular intervals to check its
system adequacy with regard to setting objectives. Also, periodic maintenance has to be performed with
proper methods, approaches that can make the system serve with expected efficiency for longer
duration.
Reuse Stormwater reuse after treatment needs to be analyzed as there is increasing water stress in urban areas.
Application of real-time Latest technologies such as the Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine
technologies Learning (ML) are to be applied for real-time data, monitoring and control of water quantity and
quality, assessment of climate change and land use/land cover impacts on stormwater.

as raising the adjacent land level, pumping stations installation, and enhancing pipe performance (Kang et al. 2016). An
enhanced pipe capacity may cater for increased urban flooding as an adaptation measure/practice to climate change
(Kang et al. 2016).
However, there is a need to study the impacts of climate change and urbanization on regional hydrology in much more
detail with more accurate and relevant data at the local scale even after downscaling. Furthermore, stormwater management
has to be studied for sustainable and resilient measures and practices to accommodate extreme events and for combined
effects. The application of integrated models for climate change impact assessment, varying land use, urban floods and on
entire urban hydrology needs to be highlighted for urban stormwater management to be efficient.
Also, as evapotranspiration has vital role for hydrology of urban environments, it becomes complex for the development of
methods to model and compute evapotranspiration. Thus, this area needs to be studied in much more detail for accurate
interpretation of urban hydrologic cycles.

4. HYDROLOGICAL – WATER QUANTITY AND QUALITY ASPECTS

Urbanization processes such as increased imperviousness modifies local water balance and improves flow for downstream (Van
Rooijen et al. 2005). Imperviousness affects hydrological response with regard to its spatial extent and thus there is a need to
consider spatial patterns of precipitation and impervious areas to find the hydrological response of catchments of urban
environments (Mejia & Moglen 2010). High intensity–short duration rainfall events are the key drivers for stormwater treat-
ment design (Liu et al. 2016). Impervious surface connection to the receiving water governs hydrologic behaviour of urban
basins (Fletcher et al. 2013). When there are considerable overland flow lines between the area of imperviousness and the
receiving waters then the hydrologic response of the impervious surface likely recedes (Fletcher et al. 2013).
Stormwater source control technologies may be applied which are ecologically relevant and realistic to find the impacts of
urbanization on baseflow variations (Hamel et al. 2013).
Also, there is a need for integrated planning of urban river corridor management considering groundwater and water qual-
ity as well for sustainable solutions for stormwater management (Costa et al. 2015).
Constraints to sustainable urban stormwater management are (Roy et al. 2008): (1) uncertainties in performance and cost,
(2) inadequate engineering standards and guidelines, (3) disjointed responsibilities, (4) lack of institutional capability, (5) lack
of legislative directive, (6) lack of financial support and effective market encouragements, and (7) confrontation to change
(Source: Roy et al. 2008)

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Solutions to sustainable urban stormwater management are (Roy et al. 2008): (1) Carry out research on costs and catch-
ment-scale performance, (2) produce a model ordinance and support guidance articles, (3) combine management across
levels of government and the cycle of water, (4) extend targeted workshops to train professionals, (5) apply grassroots
attempts to acquire support for ordinances and rules, (6) attend to barriers in market methods to give funding mechanisms,
(7) teach and appoint the public through actions (Source: Roy et al. 2008).
Risk-based integrated SWMM are to be applied to qualitatively and quantitatively assess the inundation risks in urban drai-
nage systems (UDS) (Zhu et al. 2016). Stormwater management which can make complete retention, collection and
infiltration of surface runoff will have a considerable impact if the runoff volume becomes nearly the same as that prior to
urbanization (Anim et al. 2019). Green roofs may increase the quality of urban runoff by absorption and filtration processes
and also release pollutants into water (Teemusk & Mander 2007; Lee et al. 2013). Membranes may be extensively applied in
integrated processes to produce high-quality reclaimed water (Zhang et al. 2020a).
Modelling flows below and close to the ground surface still remains a complex phenomenon and the accurate assessment of
subsurface flows needs to be studied in much detail. However, furthermore, there is a need to study integrated stormwater
management with holistic models for quantitative and qualitative analysis of urban hydrology in much more detail.

5. ECOHYDROLOGICAL AND HYDROBIOLOGICAL ASPECTS

Sequentional Purification Systems with sedimentation, biogeochemical and wetland zones with biodegradable geofibers
would augment the efficiency of purification with ecohydrological operations for urban areas with blue-green environments
to adapt to climate change (Zalewski et al. 2012). Approaches using nature-based solutions (NBS) are resilient and adaptable
for urban ecosystem management (Krauze & Wagner 2019). There is a need for a three-fold target with enabling, restoring or
preserving nature for urban environments to be sustainable in the context of ecosystems of urban waters (Krauze & Wagner
2019). There are various drivers of water ecosystems for efficient integrated urban water resources management (IUWRM)
(Wagner & Breil 2013). Integration of ecosystem methods in urban environments would build cities to be more resilient
(Wagner & Breil 2013). Utilization of rivers in urban areas enhances stormwater management to be more resilient
(Wagner & Breil 2013). The principles of ecohydrology offer a framework for management of urban water (Zalewski &
Wagner 2005). Integrated urban water management Integrated Urban Water Management (IUWM) with ecohydrology
aspects would decrease peak flows, and enhance stormwater quality (Zalewski & Wagner 2005). There is a need for inte-
gration of aquatic ecosystems and greenery in urban areas for enhanced urban water management and to improve the
mechanisms of protection of habitats against the impacts in urban environments (Zalewski & Wagner 2014). A system of
hybrids (collective of engineering and biological measures) with an underground separator system with a sequential sedimen-
tation–biofiltration system (SSBS) is capable of decreasing the hydraulic stress due to peak flows and mitigated flows for
precipitation of less than 9 mm (Jurczak et al. 2018). SSBS are efficient for treating an urban river with significant stormwater
inflows and the geochemical barrier and biofiltration zone each extensively enhance overall efficiency (Szklarek et al. 2018).
Various conventional water quality restoration methods and comprehensive ecohydrological restoration methods such as
SSBS may be applied for urban rivers with stormwater inflow ( Jurczak et al. 2019). Restoration enhances the majority of
the indicators of water quality in general (Jurczak et al. 2019). The combined LID optimal scenario with the proportions
of rain garden as 3.75%, green roof as 3.75%, and permeable pavement as 7.5% have better regulatory effects than a
single facility of LID for sponge cities (Gao et al. 2021). The Sponge City optimization scheme with LID can efficiently
lessen non-point source pollutants of nutrients in receiving water (Yang & Dong 2021).
Table 1 presents a list of research on various aspects of integrated stormwater management with applications used and
outcomes.

6. URBAN WATER AND RESILIENCE MANAGEMENT

Efficient utilization of inadequate water resources in an economical manner, adapting to the recent technological approaches
to develop ‘new’ water sources, increasing storage capacities by appropriate watershed management, implementing water
management measures, and accounting present social, environmental and economic factors are the key drivers for sustain-
able and resilient urban water management including stormwater management (Tortajada 2006).
Urban resilience is an adaptive process for society to learn in an unremitting manner to manage with varying socio-
economic situations, land use of urban and climate change (Sörensen et al. 2016). A framework method which combines

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high level targets with quantifiable indicators needs to be adapted for efficient urban stormwater management (Gabe et al.
2009). Indicators are to be recognized on two varied approaches i.e. a top-down ‘planner’s approach’ and a bottom-up ‘com-
munity approach’ for urban development and IUWM (Gabe et al. 2009). Another high level framework which is a stepwise
approach with policymaking to adapt pathways for adaptation and analysis of real options may also be applied for designing
adaptive systems for urban water resilience (Buurman & Babovic 2015).
The stepwise approach by Buurman & Babovic (2015) recognized that numerous investments to adapt to climate change
are not investments of ‘now-or-never’ and are with a flexible approach to develop, reduce or revise. Also, the framework ident-
ified that investments for adaptation are infrequent investments of an ‘all-or-nothing’ nature, however they are options to
extend price, profit and risk (Buurman & Babovic 2015).
More-informed decision-making is necessary to attain sustainable urban environmental management by recognizing the
thresholds (Li et al. 2016). Urban flood risk management sets targets to assess and decrease flood risk and to prepare to
respond and recover after real floods, with the intention of keeping disturbances and disruptions to minimum and developing
resilient urban water management systems (Sörensen et al. 2016).
The ‘Sponge City’ as an IUWM strategy with integrated approaches, with consideration of all aspects of urban hydrology
and anthropogenic as well as ecological requisites may be applied for IUWM (Wang et al. 2018).
However, there is a gap in studies on urban water management, specifically stormwater management, considering inte-
grated models and application of the IoT and AI for accurate assessment of impacts of various drivers, real-time control
(RTC) and supervision, which can enable urban stormwater management to be integrated and realistic.

7. WATER QUALITY ASPECTS

Urban planning plays a vital role in protecting the urban water environments (Goonetilleke et al. 2005). Structural measures
need to be adopted to reduce pollutants in urbanized basins and also the climatic and physical characteristics of the urban
watershed area are to be significantly considered (Goonetilleke et al. 2005). High density urban development needs to result
in a minimum footprint (Goonetilleke et al. 2005). Understanding and establishing thresholds between urbanization and
water quality is the key driver for urban stormwater quality management (Liu et al. 2013).
Dry weather periods and rainfall intensity are significant in affecting Total Suspended Solids (TSS) and Chemical Oxygen
Demand (COD) concentrations (Cheong 1991; Chui 1997). However, TSS and COD contamination loads are very much
dependent on total precipitation volume (Cheong 1991; Chui 1997). Heavy metals cause huge risks for reuse of stormwater
at safe levels (Hatt et al. 2007). Chloride retention quantification and release is significant in influencing the water quality of
stormwater management ponds (SWMPs) (Lam et al. 2020). Adsorbents at low cost can be considered as a viable option for
treating urban stormwater (Deng 2020).
The regionalization of control factors of runoff, limits and treatment needs to be adapted for BMPs of stormwater (Bell et al.
2020). Green roof systems are one of the effective mechanisms for maintaining urban stormwater quality (Beecham &
Razzaghmanesh 2015).
Fundamental principles need to be followed to develop enhancing techniques for urban stormwater quality (Davis et al.
2010). The development of innovative technologies or revival of prevailing technologies is vital for receiving, treatment
and conservation of stormwater (Hatt et al. 2006). If these measures are not implemented, stormwater reuse becomes nom-
inal and the setting of design standards is needed for efficient treatment of stormwater (Hatt et al. 2006).
However, there is a continuing knowledge gap on developing tools for realistic assessment of the impacts of water quality
on the receiving waters which can further affect urban stormwater management. Also, trend analysis of parameters associated
with water quality due to continued urbanization has not been carried in much detail. Furthermore, an integrated modelling
approach has not been applied for urban water quality management due to continued urbanization, climate change, and land
use changes.

8. SUSTAINABLE URBAN DRAINAGE SYSTEMS (SUDS/SuDS)

There have been various emerging studies carried on sustainable drainage in urban areas (Zhou 2014).
SuDS/SUDS may be applied to improve planning and the decision-making process in urban environments (Fryd et al.
2010). There needs to be vision on aims, standards and practices and firmness on funds and adaptation aspects for SUDS
realization (Ellis & Lundy 2016). Guidelines for design and targets for accomplishment are vital for the triumphant

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adaptation of LID practices for tropical urban areas to have uniformity in terms of design and monitoring of performance
(Lim & Lu 2016). Also, the performance of the features of design during extreme environments needs to be revised with rel-
evant design guidelines to adapt to the predicted climate change aspects (Lim & Lu 2016).
Key insights such as sustainability, resilience and consistency of urban drainage need to be described and calculated to
evaluate robustness during large uncertainty for gray, green and hybrid methods to improve the capacity of systems
(Casal-Campos et al. 2018). RTC and green technologies need to be integrated for UDS for management of urban water at
optimum levels (Altobelli et al. 2020). Real-time controlled actuators are to be applied to find precipitation trends which
may act as a smart in-line storage system (Kändler et al. 2020).
There is a framework for design of UDS to improve system efficiency of optimization to make practicable solutions (Kwon
et al. 2020; Lin et al. 2020). An integrated framework as the decision support system may be adapted for urban stormwater at
the community level (Hager et al. 2021). The framework such as the One-Water approach may be considered with most fitting
strategies of LID, conventional infrastructure and stormwater reuse approaches with integration of stochastic aspects,
impacts of climate change and fuzzy clustering analysis for sustainable and resilient stormwater management (Hager et al.
2021).
However, there is a gap in the practice of SUDS operation and maintenance, awareness of interface with other water
bodies, and interpretation of organizational obstacles towards SUDS implementations. Thus, there is a need to study
SUDS with regard to execution as an integrated modelling approach for urban stormwater management in much more
detail and find mechanisms for overcoming barriers associated with them.
Table 2 summarizes the research on various management aspects/practices for integrated urban water including storm-
water management.

9. REUSE AND TREATMENT WITH MANAGEMENT ASPECTS

Urban stormwater reuse is one of the most significant methods to alleviate scarcity of water resources. The need for storm-
water reuse has been progressively vital with the increase in the predominant population which is causes more water stress.
Stormwater reuse can also reduce the degradation of urban water as the decrease of volume of urban stormwater discharge
follows. However, at present, an important impediment to extensive execution of stormwater reuse is the lack of techniques
and approaches that can afford water for various requirements such as irrigation, gardening, commercial and industrial
activities.
There have been numerous research studies outlining various stormwater reuse schemes for sustainable and/or resilient
urban stormwater management including WSUD (Wada et al. 2002; Muirhead 2008; Gatt & Farrugia 2012; Lloyd et al.
2012; Kinkade 2013; Huang & Zhou 2014; Wu et al. 2014; Jonasson et al. 2016; Ahammed 2017; Jahanbakhsh 2017; Palazzo
2018; Charalambous et al. 2019; Deitch & Feirer 2019; Day & Sharma 2020; Olivieri et al. 2020; Shafiquzzaman et al. 2020).
Various measures and framework have been recommended by Ellis et al. (2008), Coutts et al. (2010), Saraswat et al. (2016),
Webber et al. (2018), Mishra & Arya (2020), Mishra et al. (2020) for urban stormwater management, considering various
scenarios with climate change effects.
The rational methods for stormwater advanced design methods have constraints to address complexities of urban catch-
ments, variations in rainfall in terms of spatial and temporal characteristics and changes in precipitation processes
(Coombes et al. 2015).
Appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions of models need to be chosen to characterize the cumulative outcomes of
minute scale processes for bigger scale watersheds (Rodak et al. 2020).
Stormwater resilience concepts can be applied for sustainable stormwater management (Rodina 2019; Wang & Roon
2020).
Stormwater reuse has to be applied with emphasis on ‘water that is fit for purpose’ (Muirhead 2008; Gogate & Raval 2015;
Goonetilleke et al. 2017; Maneewan & Roon 2017). Stormwater reuse requires tailor-made prevailing methods and utilization
of approaches to fit the given conditions (Muirhead 2008; Gogate & Raval 2015; Goonetilleke et al. 2017; Maneewan & Roon
2017).
Multicriteria stormwater management policies and methods need to be adapted as solutions for flooding, erosion and water
quality (McCuen & Moglen 1988). Levels of acceptance of pollution risk to set standards for treatment of stormwater need to

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be defined (Chouli 2006). Use of source control techniques and collaboration of various stakeholders can substantially
decrease the expenditure for stormwater management (Chouli 2006).
Management of contaminated stormwater needs to have solutions that can maintain rigorous economic and environmental
prerequisites (Pétavy et al. 2007).
Local variations in site attributes, ecological parameters, and soil conditions will affect the availability, category, and effi-
cacy of LID choices for a particular site (Montazerolhodjah 2019).
LID techniques were found to be efficient in attenuating the adverse effects of hydrology due to any type of urbanization
(Zimmer et al. 2007). LID techniques such as vegetative swales, rain barrels, infiltration trenches, and bioretention cells were
found to give the best outcomes that could completely remove all contaminants (Trajkovic et al. 2020).
The choice of control technologies has to be affected by realistic data and the relevance of every control technology for
catchment conditions to establish sustainable stormwater management (Pitt & Clark 2008).
There are various innovative methods for efficient stormwater management such as wet lands, reuse, collection, storage
and distribution (Madison & Emond 2008). ‘Green Gully’, is a novel stormwater quality improvement mechanism that col-
lects, purifies, and reuses stormwater throughout an automated system (Begum & Rasul 2009). Green infrastructure with rain
gardens may be vital for urban environments to enhance resilience to climate change impacts such as recurrent stormwater; it
also improves biodiversity and shields the landscape (Ishimatsu et al. 2017).
Porous and permeable pavements can be utilized for stormwater reuse as part of sustainable and resilient stormwater man-
agement (Beecham et al. 2010). Permeable pavements which contain chosen basecourse aggregates may generally develop a
water quality that is sufficient for reuse for irrigation (Kazemi & Hill 2015). Permeable pavements and geothermal (geoex-
change) systems use in combination for application in built-up areas checks and decreases the flooding and contamination
of water and also reduces expenditure on energy with the use of a green source of energy that includes numerous environ-
mental profits (Maharaj & Scholz 2010).
Stormwater reuse for potable purposes has to address the important impacts on society, the economy and finding sites for
storage and treatment and the acceptance by the community for drinking stormwater after treatment (McArdle et al. 2011).
The community participatory approach with the application of a Water Sensitive Design Framework is vital for a green-blue
infrastructure at every stage of planning (Marino et al. 2018).
There are various WSUD criteria for sustainable and resilient stormwater management such as improving water quality,
reducing peak flows and flood risk, and maximizing water reuse (Lariyah et al. 2011).
Stormwater reuse may give savings of potable water to the extent of 36% of the annual average household demand of pota-
ble water (Jenkins et al. 2012).
Decentralized facilities can offer more flexibility and high adaptation capacity for WSUD to adapt to climate change effects
(Siekmann & Siekmann 2015).
Reverse osmosis (RO) or ultraviolet (UV) light processes need to be applied for potable reuse systems to remove N-nitro-
somorpholine (NMOR) to comply with regulatory guidelines (Glover et al. 2019).
E²STORMED, a decision support tool with energetic and environmental criteria can be applied for the analysis of storm-
water management impacts on urban environment fields such as water supply, treatment of wastewater, management of
urban energy and urban planning (Morales Torres et al. 2016).
The advance of sustainable stormwater management systems is an enhancing established approach that unites various
methods for BMPs to accumulate, store, treat,and transmit stormwater for harvest and reuse, thus increasing the numerous
value of stormwater (Ding 2017). Risk management, financial appraisal and funding criteria for stormwater reuse need to be
studied for comparison and prioritization of stormwater reuse (Furlong et al. 2017).
Integrated Spatial Decision Support Systems (SDSS) may be applied for runoff reduction (Rufino et al. 2018). A framework
with approaches for strategic surface water management monitoring may be applied to augment decision support in cities
(Webber et al. 2019).
Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) project optimization needs to be carried for reuse of stormwater after treatment
considering the systems such as catch basins, dry well chambers, wet lands, cisterns, permeable surfaces, rain gardens and
bioswales for sustainable and resilient stormwater management (Sadeghi et al. 2018).
WSUD and BMP are effective and efficient to remove fecal indicators and pathogens (Ahmed et al. 2019). Microbial risk
will be the significant severe risk for stormwater reuse with waterborne pathogens risk. Various categories of WSUD and
BMPs are able to decrease microbial pollution, but there remains a knowledge gap on the functioning of these treatment

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obstacles. Chemical risks may be the drivers of health aspect and relationships among multi-contaminant disclosures must be
investigated (Ahmed et al. 2019).
Biofilters have the potential application to treat greywater and reuse (Hatt et al. 2007; Jung et al. 2019). RTC strategies with
validation techniques for biofilters for efficient water quality to harvest and reuse through long term experimentation may be
applied and it has been found that nutrient and sediment removal was high with RTC (Shen et al. 2019).
Different sorbents may be used at varied concentrations for efficient urban stormwater quality management
(Valentukevičienė & Najafabadi 2020). Use of a hemp sorbent is more efficient for treating water and decreasing pH, turbid-
ity, colour, and conductivity (Valentukevičienė & Najafabadi 2020).
Membranes are in wide use for integrated processes for high quality reclaimed water development to aid safe water reuse
(Kog 2020; Zhang et al. 2020a). Bioswales and wet swales need to be considered as options for stormwater control (Ekka
et al. 2020). Grass swales with check dams or infiltration swales are effective for runoff attenuation, and sediment and
heavy metal removal (Ekka et al. 2020). Treated wastewater reuse from wetlands may be provided for irrigation purposes
that can meet quality standards (Tuttolomondo et al. 2020; Zabłocka & Capodaglio 2020).
Removal of organic matter, heavy metals (especially copper), and control of bacteria growth must be the significant treat-
ment methods for reduction of toxicity (Zhan et al. 2020).
Biochar is capable of the removal of the Escherichia coli (E. coli) and thus for urban stormwater quality management
(Valenca et al. 2021).
Table 3 presents a list of various studies carried out on numerous stormwater reuse and treatment measures and/or prac-
tices for efficient integrated urban stormwater management.
However, there is a knowledge gap on detailed integrated study related to efficient stormwater reuse for potable purposes
after treatment on a large scale, which is the significant requirement of urban areas. Also, the proportion of stormwater for
reuse with and without treatment for specific purposes needs to be studied in much more detail. Figures 1 and 2 present and
describe integrated urban stormwater management processes that need to be adapted with real-time governance. Various dri-
vers such as climate change that impact the assessment, water quality, reuse and treatment are to be taken into account for
efficient and optimal outcomes.
Urban hydrology characteristics are to be studied as an integrated study, considering the impacts of climate change, flow
characteristics and water quality assessment (Figure 1). If water quality is fit for use, then water may be reused, otherwise
water needs to be treated (Figure 2). If flows exceed peak flows in urban environments, then any suitable sustainable and/
or resilient measures and/or practices such as LID, BMP, SUDS, WSUD and SCP are to be adapted. If flows do not
exceed peak flows, then they may be discharged into water bodies in the vicinity after treatment (Figure 2).
Table 4 describes various key drivers of integrated urban stormwater management to develop to be efficient, sustainable and
resilient.

10. CRITICAL REMARKS

There is a need for standardization of measures and practices for integrated stormwater management that should consist of
innovative technologies, climate change impact assessment, and uncertainty analysis associated with prevailing aspects, as
water resources are becoming scarce day by day due to poor management rather than availability. Also, it is necessary to
treat and reuse available stormwater with sustainable and resilient management adaptations for various requirements such
as irrigation and potable purposes on a large scale. For climate change impact studies on urban stormwater runoff and its
efficient management, appropriate trend analysis needs to be performed with modifications specific to the region. Small mag-
nitude and more frequent rainfall events need to be considered for the accurate and realistic assessment of governing flows in
urban areas. Also, standardized performance assessment methods are very much needed for total urban stormwater manage-
ment. Catchment-specific evaluations of flow changes due to urbanization are required. Real-time monitoring mechanisms
such as IoT, AI and ML are to be applied for accurate, realistic and more efficient urban stormwater management.
Various researchers have worked on different aspects of stormwater management specific to the urban regions. However,
still there is further scope to carry out research on innovative measures and practices for stormwater management as an inte-
grated part of urban water management, which needs to be sustainable and resilient as water resources are under stress when
fulfilling exponentially growing urban water requirements. The following section describes various research needs for inte-
grated urban stormwater management.

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11. FUTURE SCOPE OF WORK/RESEARCH NEEDS

Based on the literature review presented above, the following future research needs on urban storm water management may
be explored.
Effect of climate change is to be assessed and adaptation actions need to be specific to the region. Uncertainty analysis
related to heterogeneous climate change, extreme hydrologic events like floods, land use/cover interventions, treatment,
reuse and economic factors is to be performed. Key drivers and their influencing mechanism for urban stormwater manage-
ment needs to be considered. Assessment of models is to be performed with realistic, continuous and long-term data.
Monitoring and maintenance of the systems are to be carried with real-time application technologies such as the IoT, AI
and ML for real-time monitoring, and control of water quantity and water quality, and for accurate assessment of climate
change impacts and land use/land cover interventions. The reuse of stormwater needs to be analyzed with the intent of pota-
ble use on a large scale to provide for the various needs of urban areas. The role of stormwater for reuse with or without
treatment for specific purposes needs to be studied.

12. CONCLUSIONS
From the present study on review of urban stormwater management, the following points are the various conclusions

• Characteristics of urban hydrology need to be studied in much detail with regard to spatial and temporal variations
especially for better interpretation of precipitation.
• Trends of precipitation due to land-use variability have to be evaluated with realistic and long-term data.
• Determination of rainfall–runoff relationships is vital and needs to be established as specific to the region of study and con-
sidering all key drivers that can impact urban hydrology and further urban stormwater management.
• There remain barriers to understanding peak flows due to lack of interpretation of urban hydrologic indicators and lack of
accurate assessments of various impacts of urbanization.
• The integrated urban hydrologic models need to be assessed accurately for associated uncertainty.
• Various stormwater reuse methods as a resource for various purposes to urban areas need to be examined further, as an
emerging research area, which can enhance sustainable and resilient measures for integrated urban stormwater
management.
• The impact of climate change on precipitation in urban environments is a significantly increasing issue that needs to be
assessed specific to the region as a matter of urgent concern to better interpret urban rainfall varying patterns.
• Development and application of accurate regional specific climate models that are realistic need to be undertaken for effi-
cient integrated urban stormwater management systems.
• Real-time monitoring of governing parameters of climate and the assessment of the impact of climate change on the
regional scale need to be carried out.
• Periodical supervision and monitoring of standards and guidelines for various measures and practices for stormwater man-
agement to verify their adequacy is essential. If found to be not meeting the present climatic, land-use and other impacting
conditions, design standards and guidelines are to be amended accordingly.
• Selection of appropriate sustainable and resilient measures and practices that are further cost effective is the key for suc-
cessful implementation of stomwater management in urban environments.
• Identification and implementation mechanisms of key drivers in a holistic manner plays a significant role for efficient urban
stormwater management.
• Application of the Internet of Things (IoT), Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) techniques are needed
to develop urban stormwater management to be more sustainable, resilient and to the next level.
• Real-time governance needs to be adapted for accurate and efficient urban stormwater management.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Data Availability Statement – No data were used or generated

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CONFLICT OF INTEREST STATEMENT

The authors declare that they are not affiliated with or involved with any organization or entity with any financial interest or
non-financial interest in the subject matter or materials discussed in this paper.

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

All relevant data are included in the paper or its Supplementary Information.

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First received 26 October 2021; accepted in revised form 9 January 2022. Available online 22 January 2022

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Received: 8 October 2021 Revised: 30 December 2021 Accepted: 28 January 2022

DOI: 10.1002/tqem.21860

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Trends of surface water quality of the Krishna River, India

during the urbanization process

Lakshmi Raghu Nagendra Prasad Rentachintala1 Muni Reddy Mutukuru Gangireddy1

Pranab Kumar Mohapatra2

1
Department of Civil Engineering, A.U. College
of Engineering (A), Andhra University, Abstract
Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India
In the present study, Amaravati, the proposed city of India is considered to assess the
2
Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar,
impacts of urbanization on water quality of the Krishna River in the vicinity. Long-term
Palaj, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India
surface water quality data of various parameters of Krishna River are obtained from
Correspondence Central Water Commission (CWC). Trends of various parameters are analyzed using
Lakshmi Raghu Nagendra Prasad
Rentachintala, Department of Civil a modified version of Mann-Kendall (M-K) test; bootstrapped M-K trend test with
Engineering, A.U. College of Engineering (A), optional bias corrected pre-whitening and R programming are used affecting water
Andhra University, Visakhapatnam, Andhra
Pradesh 530003, India. quality prior to and at the commencement of urbanization. During the onset of urban-
Email: rlrnagendra@[Link] ization, minimum BOD is decreased from 0.49 to 0.2 mg/L, while the maximum BOD is
increased by 67.7%. Dissolved oxygen’s (DO) minimum value is decreased by 29.33%
while maximum DO value is decreased by 4.47% at the beginning of urbanization.
During the process of urbanization, total coliform’s minimum count is increased to
330 from 2 MPN/100 ml while the maximum count of total coliforms is increased to
16,000 from 2400 MPN/100 ml. Faecal coilform’s minimum count is increased from 2
to 80 MPN/100 ml while maximum count is increased to 16,000 from 800 MPN/100 ml
during urbanization. It is found that due to urbanization, pH, DO values exceed the
allowable limit.

KEYWORDS
Mann-Kendall test, R programming, urbanization, water quality

1 INTRODUCTION with flowing water in the long-term in the context of before, during, and
after urbanization is the need of the hour for efficient planning, design,
Indications of water quality reduction can be perceived throughout the and implementation of smart city concept to endorse as water sensitive
globe. The forms, scales, and levels of water quality problems vary from city anywhere in the world.
one nation to another. The number of new chemicals brought glob- Various researchers have been finding numerous
ally every year is prodigious and typically unidentified (Biswas & Tor- approaches/models to assess urban water quality about different
tajada, 2019). Thus, there is a need to manage urban water quality by objectives and parameters. Co-production approach for developing
minimization of adverse impacts on surface water quality of receiving urban water security indicators and coordinated research to deal
water due to continued urbanization. There is a requirement to reduce with the confronts of urban water management for policy develop-
pollution of water quality within allowable limits, especially in urban ments were other approaches studied by the investigators (Brown
environments. Otherwise, it may affect the ecology and natural urban & Keath, 2008; Gómez et al., 2012; Jensen & Wu, 2018; Trudeau,
hydrology. Further, the trend analysis of various parameters’ charac- 2020). Novotny (1996) suggested that reduction of waste flows and
teristics with emphasis on varying concentrations that are being mixed increase of water assimilative capacity needs to be considered for

Environ Qual Manage. 2022;1–11. [Link]/journal/tqem © 2022 Wiley Periodicals LLC 1

2 RENTACHINTALA ET AL .

integrated water quality management of receiving waters. There are (Wijesiri et al., 2019). Biswas and Tortajada (2019) discussed the status
various water quality management aspects, various developments, of water quality management on a global scale. There still remains var-
challenges, and barriers related to practices of water quality man- ious challenges and opportunities on urban water quality management
agement (Huang & Xia, 2001; Pitt, 2000). Unami and Kawachi (2002) (Hiriart et al., 2019). Mannina (2019) presented an approach based on
exhibited a universal optimization concept and its validation using an the coefficient of variation for uncertainty analysis in integrated urban
H∞ controller as a water quality management approach. Establishing water quality modeling.
the relation between landscape and water quality in the river basin for Qiu and Ostfeld (2020) studied a novel dynamic clustering method-
long-term efficient urban water quality management and the role of ology for various objectives including resiliency and water quality man-
urban planning studies are vital to preserve urban water environments agement. Dreizis (2020) studied the various assessment methods of
(Duh et al., 2008; Goonetilleke et al., 2005; Turner & Rabalais, 2003). coastal zone water quality. Scrutiny of various associated methodolo-
There are diverse facets of urban water quality management such as gies, applications, and considerations of policies for water quality man-
impacts of runoff on receiving water, water and wastewater reuse, and agement may be carried (Dreizis, 2020). Martin and Johnson (2020)
future research needs (Ellis et al., 2005). Freni et al. (2008) studied presented a multiarmed bandit approach for adaptive water quality
integrated modeling as an application for comprehensive urban water management. Salehi et al. (2020) applied principal component analy-
quality management on a catchment scale. Srikanth (2009) described sis (PCA) to correlate parameters affecting water quality, their origins,
the components, which can affect the management of water quality and seasonal variations. In addition, water quality indices (WQIs) may
in rural areas. Best Management Practices (BMP) and Low Impact be computed for evaluation of stormwater quality variations (Salehi
Development (LID) can be applied to reduce associated risks of pol- et al., 2020). Implications of sustainability on water reuse for urban
lution of urban water (Prodanoff et al., 2010). Biswas and Tortajada environments need to be studied (Jonathan et al., 2016; Zhou et al.,
(2011) highlighted the need for a framework for water quality man- 2021).
agement. Beenen et al. (2011) presented an integrated approach for Thus, there is a need to efficiently manage the water quality of
determination of receiving the quality of water. receiving waters due to urbanization to reduce pollution levels within
Shen (2012) analyzed water quality management in terms of legisla- allowable limits otherwise they can impact adversely the water qual-
tion, institutions, and instruments for management and offered recom- ity of receiving waters. Also, there is a matter of concern to treat river
mendations for system development. waters to comply with standards to make them fit for various uses.
Mamun and Zainudin (2013) reviewed the prevailing approaches Trend analysis of various water quality parameters is useful and neces-
and strategies for conservation of water quality of the river. sary to assess whether the parameter is having significant or insignif-
Autoflow concept may be applied for intelligent water manage- icant trend. Also, the magnitude of trend in terms of Sen’s slope pro-
ment, systematic analysis scheme (SAS) for developing models with vides insight on quantification of trend of pollutant parameter.
application of artificial neural networks (ANNs), and Gamma test
(GT) for urban water quality prediction (Nguyen et al. 2018; Chang
et al., 2015). Vogel and Moore (2016) studied and informed future Thus, there is a need to
efforts to enhance stormwater control and treatment at spatial and
temporal scales. Alfredo and Russo (2017) reviewed various urban
efficiently manage the water
environmental security practices for sustainable water quality.
There are emerging trends for sustainable water quality manage-
quality of receiving waters
ment and the water-energy nexus (Riadi, 2017). Majid et al. (2017) due to urbanization to reduce
developed and tested an optimization technique that was novel for the
selection and dimensioning of stormwater control measures (SCMs) pollution levels within
in urban landscapes. The impacts of climate change affect urban
water quality management of coastal towns (Islam et al., 2017). allowable limits otherwise
Jeangros et al. (2017) presented a stochastic and dynamic urban
water quality model by integrating existing models for surface water
they can impact adversely the
quality, generation of wastewater, and routing of drainage. Source water quality of receiving
control approaches are found as necessary for compliance with stan-
dards for urban water quality management (Jeangros et al., 2017). waters
Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) approach was found efficient for
sustainable urban water management with recycle and reduction of Package such as “modifiedmk” (Patakamuri & O’Brien, 2020;
adverse effects of treated wastewater (Page et al., 2018). Bekele et al. Patakamuri et al., 2020) of R language is a tool to find trends of data
(2018) reviewed the current status, challenges, and opportunities of using various modified versions of Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s
MAR schemes for sustainable urban water quality management. There slope.
is a need for complex mechanisms to interpret pollutant processes Thus, the present study is aimed to assess the impacts of the
and impacts of climate change on urban water quality management urbanization process on the quality of receiving water in the vicinity
RENTACHINTALA ET AL . 3

EXHIBIT 1 Detailed master plan of proposed city [Color figure can be viewed at [Link]]

using various approaches. Further, the present study is intended to with advanced package “modifiedmk” for modified version(s) of the
determine the impacts of urbanization on the quality of receiving Mann-Kendall test for trend analysis of various parameters affecting
waters. Also, the assessment of trends of parameter characteristics water quality with features of bootstrapping, bias correction and pre-
associated with surface water quality of the Krishna River against tol- whitening perhaps was not carried out in earlier studies. The present
erance limits is set as an objective of the present study. The present study is carried out to build on existing knowledge and to fill gaps as
study is set to apply the Mann-Kendall trend test, Sen’s slope and R described.
programming to find trends of various water quality parameters of the
Krishna River during the urbanization process of Amaravati city, India.
2 MATERIALS AND METHODS
If the time series of water quality is auto-correlated, then various modi-
fied versions of the Mann-Kendall trend test are to be applied to assess
2.1 Study area
trends of data.

The proposed city is located in the new state of Andhra Pradesh and
1.1 Novel aspects and objectives of the present on the banks of the Krishna river in Guntur district. The proposed city’s
study area is 217.50 km2 , located at 16.510 N latitude and 80.520 E longi-
tude. This city area is proposed to be made up of agricultural lands of
The impacts of proposed urbanization on surface water quality of 29 existing villages belonging to various mandals of Guntur district. The
receiving waters in the vicinity are a special geographical feature study area map as shown in Exhibit 1, that is, detailed master plan of the
of parametric study. The application of long-term water quality data city is being considered for this research study as provided/available
of various tracers and their trend analysis is scarcely available. from AP CRDA/AMRDA web portal. This study area master plan map is
Also, the application of programming tools such as R programming presented Exhibit 1 for ready reference.
4 RENTACHINTALA ET AL .

2.2 Methodology MK standard statistic Z is defined as

⎧ S−1 ⎫
Available surface water quality data of the Krishna river at Vijayawada ⎪√ if S > 0⎪
CWC monitoring station is used for analysis purpose. To assess the ⎪ Var (S) ⎪
⎪ if S = 0⎪
Z = ⎨0 ⎬ (4)
impacts of urbanization on water quality of river in the vicinity, trend
⎪ ⎪
analysis of various parameters before and at the beginning of urban- ⎪ √S + 1 if S < 0⎪
⎪ Var (S) ⎪
ization about tolerance limits as prescribed by the Bureau of Indian ⎩ ⎭
Standards related to pollution parameters for inland surface waters
required for different uses is also performed. Also, application of R pro- A positive value of Z designates an upward trend and a negative
gramming using the “modifiedmk” package to find trend analysis of var- value specifies a downward trend. The significance levels (p-values) for
ious parameters before and at the onset of urbanization is also car- each trend test can be attained from the below equation as (Coulibaly
ried with the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. As the study and Shi, 2005)
area started to develop as an urban area with the construction of high rise
buildings, roads and other urban amenities from the year 2014, thus period p = 0.5 − 𝜑 |Z| (5)
before urbanization is considered up to the year 2013 and the start of the
urbanization period is considered from the year 2014 to 2019. The rationale where, φ (Z) indicates the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of a
for the selection of various parameters to assess the impacts of urbanization standard normal variate. At a level of significance of 0.1, if p ≤ 0.1, then
on water quality is based on its changes in concentrations at significant scale the existing trend is regarded to be statistically significant.
before urbanization.

2.4 Sen’s Slope Estimator (Sen, 1968)

Available surface water Sen’s slope method is a nonparametric method of estimating the mag-

quality data of the Krishna nitude of trend in terms of the slope of trend. For a given time series xi
= x1 , x2 . . . . . . xn , with N pairs of data, the slope is calculated as
river at Vijayawada CWC xj − xk
𝛽i = , ∀k ≤ j and i = 1, 2 … ..N (6)
monitoring station is used for j−k

Median of N values of βi gives the Sen’s estimator of slope, β.

analysis purpose.
⎧ 𝛽 N+1 if N is odd ⎫
⎪ ⎪
𝛽 = ⎨1 [ 2 ]
⎬ (7)
⎪ 𝛽 N + 𝛽 N+2 if N iseven⎪
⎩ 2 2 2 ⎭
2.3 Mann-Kendall Test: Mann-Kendall (Mann,
1945; Kendall, 1945, 1945) test is based on testing
the S statistic defined as 2.5 Bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with
optional bias corrected pre-whitening
∑
n−1 ∑
n
S= sgn(xj − xi ) (1) Out of various modified Mann-Kendall trend tests, bootstrapped Mann-
i=1 j=i+1
Kendall trend test with optional bias corrected pre-whitening has all the lat-
where, x1 , x2 . . . . . . xn represent n data points, xi and xj are values of data est and necessary methods such as bootstrapping, bias correction, and
at time i and j respectively. pre-whitening to resample time series data for accurate results.
In the bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias cor-
⎧ ( ) ⎫ rected pre-whitening, the empirical distribution of the Mann-Kendall
⎪−1 if xj − xi < 0⎪
( ) ⎪ ( ) ⎪ test statistic is computed by bootstrapped re-sampling. The Hamed
sgn xj − xi = ⎨0 if xj − xi = 0⎬ (2)
⎪ ⎪ (2009) bias correction pre-whitening technique can optionally be
( )
⎪1 if xj − xi > 0⎪ applied as the default for pre-whitening before the bootstrapped
⎩ ⎭
Mann-Kendall test is applied (Lacombe et al., 2012).
∑m Bootstrapped samples are determined by re-sampling one value at
n (n − 1) (2n + 5) − i=1 ti (ti − 1) (2ti + 5)
Var(S) = (3) a time from the time series with replacement. The p-value (ps ) of the
18
re-sampled data is estimated by (Yue and Pilon, 2004):
where, n is the number of data points, m is the number of tied groups,
and ti denotes the number of ties of extent i. ps = ms ∕M (8)
RENTACHINTALA ET AL . 5

EXHIBIT 2 Time series plot Biochemical Oxygen

Demand

EXHIBIT 3 Time series plot of DO

The Mann-Kendall test statistics (S) is calculated for each re- collected during floods and dry riverbed conditions at 10-day scale. Surface
sampled dataset. The resultant vector of re-sampled S statistics is then water quality data of various parameters considered are: DO (dissolved
sorted in ascending ordering, where ms the rank corresponding to the oxygen), Mg (Magnesium), Al (Aluminium), alkalinity-phenolphthalein,
largest bootstrapped value of S is less than the test statistic value cal- Biological/Biochemical Oxygen Demand, Cl (Chloride), CO3 , total dis-
culated from the actual data. M is the total number of bootstrapped re- solved solids, Fe (Iron), total hardness, K (Potassium), Na (Sodium), NH3
samples. The default value of M is 1000, however, Yue and Pilon (2004) (Ammonia), orthophosphate, pH, SAR (Sodium Absorption Ratio), total
suggest values between 1000 and 2000. alkalinity, NO3 , Ca (Calcium), and few other for different time periods.

2.6 R Programming 4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

RStudio as IDE [Integrated Development Environment] for R programming, Exhibits 2–5 as shown below are the time series plots of various param-
a programming tool is to perform statistical analysis which is made eters prior to urbanization, up to 2013 and at the onset of urbanization,
available as open-source as well (Patakamuri & O’Brien, 2020; R Core from 2014 in the study area.
Team, 2020; Wickham and Bryan, 2019). Prior to urbanization is the period before urbanization starting, that
is, up to the year 2013. Onset of urbanization is the period from which
urbanization has started, that is, from the year 2014 onwards.
3 DATA CONSIDERED In Exhibits 2–5, time series of various parameters are plotted and
shown their profiles during the period before urbanization, that is, up
Long-term surface water quality data of Krishna river at Vijayawada, to year 2013 and the onset of urbanization period from year 2014
nearby chosen study area in the form of concentration of numer- onwards. In all the time series plots, there exists discontinuity in
ous parameters as made available by CWC through Water Resources profiles as data at those periods not available due to occurrence of
Information Systems (WRIS), their portals and on the requisition are floods and dry riverbed. Biochemical oxygen demand/biological oxy-
considered for the present study. Water quality data are collected at a gen demand has an average of 0.96 mg/L and a standard deviation of
10-day scale in normal flow conditions in the river. However, no data are 0.21 mg/L prior to urbanization, and with an average of 1.47 mg/L and
6 RENTACHINTALA ET AL .

EXHIBIT 4 Time series plot of pH

EXHIBIT 5 Time series plot of total coliform

a standard deviation of 0.73 mg/L at the onset of urbanization. DO NH3 , SAR, total alkalinity and total dissolved solids and thus they have
has an average of 6.89 mg/L and a standard deviation of 0.55 mg/L decreasing trends. All other parameters are having positive Z value and
before urbanization, and with an average of 6.36 mg/L and a standard thus they are with rising trend (Exhibit 6).
deviation of 1.14 mg/L at the onset of urbanization. pH has an aver- At 95% confidence level, if p value of any parameter is less than 0.05,
age of 8.01 and a standard deviation of 0.31 prior to urbanization, and the trend is significant, otherwise it becomes insignificant. In Mann-
with an average of 7.98 and a standard deviation of 0.36 at the onset Kendall test static, if Z value is positive, then the trend is increasing, and
of urbanization. Total coliform has an average of 1325.5 MPN/100 ml if value of Z is negative the trend is decreasing. At onset of urbaniza-
and a standard deviation of 1257.27 MPN/100 ml before urbanization, tion, except for total coliform and pH-Gen, p value is more than 0.05 for
and with an average of 7098.13 MPN/100 ml and a standard devia- all quality parameters, thus the trend becomes insignificant for those
tion of 6741.12 MPN/100 ml at the onset of urbanization. Faecal col- parameters (Exhibit 8). Alkalinity-phenolphthalein, Ca, pH-Gen, tem-
iform has an average of 458 MPN/100 ml and a standard deviation perature and total coliform are having negative Z values, the trend of
of 405.73 MPN/100 ml before urbanization, and with an average of those parameters decreasing while other parameters with positive Z
3900 MPN/100 ml and a standard deviation of 6387.39 MPN/100 ml values have rising trend (Exhibit 8).
at the onset of urbanization. The characteristics of the trend of different parameters whether
Exhibits 6–10 present trend results and analysis of various param- significant or insignificant trend, increasing or decreasing trend, the
eters before and at the inception of urbanization using R program- magnitude of trend using Sen’s slope estimator before and dur-
ming with bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias ing the onset of urbanization are assessed. All the characteristics
corrected pre-whitening. of trends of various parameters as quality drivers are obtained
For the period prior to urbanization, that is, up to the year 2013, as p at 95% confidence level before and at the start of urbanization.
value is less than 0.05 for DO, DO[Sat], Fe, Na, NH3 and SAR, the trend Before urbanization, the insignificant increasing trend is observed
of these parameters become significant at 95% confidence level. All in Al, alkalinity-phenolphthalein, BCOD, Ca, Cl, CO3 , hardness total,
other parameters are having p value more than 0.05 and thus they are K, Mg, NO3, orthophosphate, pH, temperature, and turbidity. An
with insignificant trend. Test static Z is negative for DO, DO[Sat], Fe, Na insignificant decreasing trend is detected in total alkalinity and total
RENTACHINTALA ET AL . 7

EXHIBIT 6 Trend results of parameters prior to urbanization

Bias corrected Bias corrected

Bias corrected pre-whitened Bias corrected pre-whitened Boot
Parameter pre-whitened Z Sen’s slope pre-whitened S Kendall’s Tau strapped p
Al 1.8872 1.0486×10–3 1.0710×103 1.0698×10–1 0.97
–3 3
alkalinity-phenolphthalein 4.3532 5.2766×10 8.2490×10 1.6366×10–1 1.00
–3 3 –1
BCOD 4.8843 2.6749×10 2.0480×10 3.0705×10 1.00
Ca 12.5636 2.3955×10–2 2.3805×104 4.7229×10–1 1.00
–2 4 –1
Cl 6.9605 1.9045×10 1.3189×10 2.6167×10 1.00
–3 3 –1
CO3 4.3532 6.3573×10 8.2490×10 1.6366×10 1.00
DO −11.5082 −6.5687×10–3 −8.0940×103 −6.0557×10–1 0.001
DO [Sat] −13.6981 −1.2028×10 –1
−9.6340×10 3
−7.2078×10 –1
0.001
Fe −3.1008 −3.5167×10–5 −5.4930×103 −1.1927×10–1 0.001
–2 4 –1
hardness total 9.5277 6.7804×10 1.8053×10 3.5817×10 1.00
–4 3 –2
K 1.6200 5.5255×10 2.9840×10 6.1505×10 0.94
Mg 1.1400 1.6978×10–3 2.1610×103 4.2874×10–2 0.879
Na −7.8413 −2.6478×10 –2
−1.4440×10 4
−2.9763×10 –1
0.001
NH3 −2.8755 −1.5437×10–5 −4.8290×103 −1.1060×10–1 0.002
–7 3 –2
NO3 2.4258 2.6185×10 4.2750×10 93437×10 0.993
orthophosphate 2.2045 0.0946 10.0000 1.0000 1.00
pH 13.7394 8.1471×10–4 3.8789×104 4.5153×10–1 1.00
SAR −8.2258 −1.2117×10 –3
−1.5148×10 4
−3.1223×10 –1
0.001
–1 –4 2 –2
temperature 5.0546×10 8.5445×10 7.3400×10 2.0826×10 0.684
total alkalinity −4.5918×10–1 −3.5661×10–3 −8.7100×102 −1.7281×10–2 0.335
total dissolved solids −0.3880 −0.0202 −294.0000 −0.0200 0.347

E X H I B I T 7 Trend results of parameters prior to urbanization Further, both total and faecal coliforms become higher in their count
with minimal data than tolerance limits both minimum and maximum values at the onset
Parameter Z Sen’s slope S Tau p of urbanization. pH maximum is increased by 1.52% during the process

total coliform 0.0000 83.0000 1.0000 0.1667 1.00

of urbanization. Total dissolved solids minimum is increased by 32.74%
and the maximum is decreased by 22.46%. The maximum value of chlo-
faecal coliform 0.0000 38.0000 1.0000 0.1667 1.00
rides is increased by 91.07% while the minimum value of chlorides
turbidity 0.7223 0.5083 3.0000 0.5000 0.47
is decreased exponentially. During the process of urbanization, value
of Iron remains minimum as zero, while maximum value increases to
dissolved solids before urbanization. DO, DO [Sat], Fe, NH3 , SAR, and 1.6 mg/L from 0.24 mg/L; and Magnesium’s minimum value is increased
Na are at a significant decreasing trend in the before to urbanization by 35.68% while maximum value is increased by 11.27%. Also BOD
phase. No trend is found in both coliforms before urbanization, up to minimum is decreased to 0.2 mg/L from 0.49 mg/L while maximum
2013 year. An insignificant decreasing trend is observed in alkalinity- BOD is increased by 67.7% from the year 2014. DO minimum value is
phenolphthalein, Calcium, and temperature at the onset of urbaniza- decreased by 29.33% while maximum DO value is decreased by 4.47%.
tion. An insignificant increasing trend is found in BOD, COD, DO [Sat], Total coliforms minimum count is increased to 330 from 2 MPN/100 ml
DO, F, Mg, NH3 -N, SAR, TDS, total alkalinity, K and Na at the start of while the maximum count of total coliforms is increased to 16,000
urbanization i.e. from the year 2014. No trend is observed in faecal from 2400 MPN/100 ml during the process of urbanization. Faecal coil-
coliform while a significant decreasing trend is found in case of total forms minimum count is increased from 2 to 80 MPN/100 ml while the
coliform at the commencement of the urbanization phase. A significant maximum count is increased to 16,000 from 800 MPN/100 ml during
decreasing trend is monitored in the case of pH-Gen at the beginning the process of urbanization. Total hardness minimum value is increased
of urbanization. by 62.79% while its maximum is increased by 40.1% during the process
From Exhibit 11, it has been observed that due to urbanization, the of urbanization.
pH value exceeded the maximum allowable limit. Also, the DO value is The significant changes in values of most of the parameters might
increased by the maximum allowable limit than set by BIS standards. be due to certain areas of the study area being changed as impervious,
8 RENTACHINTALA ET AL .

EXHIBIT 8 Trend results of parameters at onset of urbanization

Bias corrected Bias corrected

Bias corrected pre-whitened Bias corrected pre-whitened Boot
Parameter pre-whitened Z Sen’s slope pre-whitened S Kendall’s Tau strapped p
alkalinity-phenolphthalein −0.1124 0.0000 −3.0000 −0.0286 0.439
BOD 0.4949 0.0286 11.0000 0.1048 0.684
Ca −0.2969 −0.0856 −7.0000 −0.0667 0.352
COD 0.2969 0.2794 7.0000 0.0667 0.627
DO [Sat] 1.8805 0.7445 39.0000 0.3714 0.968
DO 0.6928 0.0447 15.0000 0.1429 0.729
F 1.1877 0.0123 25.0000 0.2381 0.882
faecal coliform 0.0000 7.7188 1.0000 0.0095 0.505
K 0.4470 0.0089 10.0000 0.0952 0.685
Mg 0.2969 0.1219 7.0000 0.0667 0.605
Na 1.5836 1.9574 33.0000 0.3143 0.949
NH3 -N 1.7724 0.0993 18.0000 0.5000 0.965
pH – Gen −1.5836 −0.0346 −33.0000 −0.3143 0.048
SAR 1.2867 0.0585 27.0000 0.2571 0.915
TDS 0.3050 2.9846 6.0000 0.0769 0.625
temperature −0.9897 −0.1909 −21.0000 −0.2000 0.152
total alkalinity 1.4846 1.8349 31.0000 0.2952 0.933
total coliform −2.9233 −1171.49 −60.0000 −0.5714 0.003

EXHIBIT 9 Trend Analysis of parameters prior to urbanization

Parameter Characteristics of trend Sen’s Slope Parameter Characteristics of trend Sen’s Slope
Al Insignificant increasing trend 1.0486×10 –3
NH3 Significant decreasing trend −1.5437×10–5
alkalinity-phenolphthalein Insignificant increasing trend 5.2766×10–3 NO3 Insignificant increasing trend 2.6185×10–7
–3
BCOD Insignificant increasing trend 2.6749×10 ortho-phosphate Insignificant increasing trend 0.0946
Ca Insignificant increasing trend 2.3955×10–2 pH Insignificant increasing trend 8.1471×10–4
Cl Insignificant increasing trend 1.9045×10–2 SAR Significant decreasing trend −1.2117×10–3
CO3 Insignificant increasing trend 6.3573×10–3 temperature Insignificant increasing trend 8.5445×10–4
DO Significant decreasing trend −6.5687×10–3 total alkalinity Insignificant decreasing trend −3.5661×10–3
DO [Sat] Significant decreasing trend −1.2028×10 –1
total dissolved Solids Insignificant decreasing trend −0.0202
Fe Significant decreasing trend −3.5167×10–5 total coliform No Trend 83.0000
–2
hardness total Insignificant increasing trend 6.7804×10 faecal coliform No Trend 38.0000
–4
K Insignificant increasing trend 5.5255×10 turbidity Insignificant increasing trend 0.5083
Mg Insignificant Increasing trend 1.6978×10–3 Na Significant decreasing trend −2.6478×10–2

Note: Characteristics of Trend at 95% confidence level.

a decrease of vegetation, changes in land cover/land use patterns, var- in surface runoff component increase and further results in an increase
ious construction activities, and development of dwellings of various of pollution load of the receiving waters.
capacities for various purposes during the commencement process of The findings of the present study can help to assess the impacts
urbanization from the 2014 year onwards. Also, various anthropogenic of urbanization on the quality of receiving waters to identify param-
activities, changes in climatic conditions such as a change in tempera- eters which are having significant or insignificant trends. In addi-
ture and rainfall are the most affecting drivers of the urban water qual- tion, the trend analysis described in this study is useful to ana-
ity. As the urbanization process commences, it causes an increase of lyze trends of various parameters which are quality drivers that
impervious area due to the above mentioned activities which results can impact significantly surface water quality of receiving waters.
RENTACHINTALA ET AL . 9

EXHIBIT 10 Trend Analysis of parameters at onset of urbanization

Parameter Characteristics of trend Sen’s Slope Parameter Characteristics of trend Sen’s Slope
alkalinity-phenolphthalein Insignificant decreasing trend 0.0000 NH3 -N Insignificant increasing trend 0.0993
BOD Insignificant increasing trend 0.0286 pH – Gen Significant decreasing trend −0.0346
Ca Insignificant decreasing trend −0.0856 SAR Insignificant increasing trend 0.0585
COD Insignificant increasing trend 0.2794 TDS Insignificant Increasing Trend 2.9846
DO [Sat] Insignificant increasing trend 0.7445 Temperature Insignificant Decreasing Trend −0.1909
DO Insignificant increasing trend 0.0447 total alkalinity Insignificant Increasing Trend 1.8349
F Insignificant increasing trend 0.0123 total coliform Significant decreasing Trend −1171.49
faecal coliform No trend 7.7188 K Insignificant Increasing Trend 0.0089
Mg Insignificant increasing trend 0.1219 Na Insignificant Increasing Trend 1.9574

Note: Characteristics of trend at 95% confidence level.

EXHIBIT 11 Krishna river surface water quality trend analysis at study area (Source: CWC and BIS 2296-1982)

Prior to At start of
urbanization(Before 2014 urbanization(From 2014
Tolerance Limits as
year) year)
per BIS standards (For
[Link]. Parameter Units Minimum Maximum Minimum Maximum A,B,C, and D use class)
1 pH pH units 7.2 8.57 6.5 8.7 6.5–8.5
2 total dissolved mg/L 168 650 223 504 500–1500
solids
3 Cl mg/L 20.5 56 0.8 107 250–600
4 Fe mg/L 0 0.24 0 1.6 0.3–50
5 Mg mg/L 9.36 28.67 12.7 31.9 100
6 BOD mg/L 0.49 1.61 0.2 2.7 2–3
7 DO mg/L 5.66 8.27 4 7.9 4–6
8 TCol-MPN MPN/ 100 ml 2 2400 330 16000 50–5000
9 FCol-MPN MPN/ 100 ml 2 800 80 16000 40% of TCol-MPN
10 total hardness mg/L 74.33 174.88 121 245 300

Note: Use Class A – Drinking water source without conventional treatment but after disinfections.
(Source: BIS 2296-1982)
Use Class B – Outdoor bathing – Organized.
Use Class C – Drinking water source with conventional treatment followed by disinfections.
Use Class D – Propagation of wildlife, fisheries.

Further, the application of the modified version of the Mann-Kendall is found in DO, DO [Sat], Fe, NH3 , SAR, and Na, however, there was
test, bootstrapped M-K trend test with optional bias corrected pre- no trend in coliforms. From the trend analysis of various parameters
whitening and R programming with “modifiedmk” package are novel at the onset of urbanization, it is obtained that pH, total coliform has
techniques that can be applied to assess impacts of water quality due to shown a significant decreasing trend while no trend is observed in fae-
urbanization. cal coliform. At the beginning of urbanization, an increase of concen-
tration/value of certain parameters about tolerance limits specified by
BIS is observed especially in pH, DO, total and faecal coliforms. BOD
5 CONCLUSIONS minimum is decreased to 0.2 mg/L from 0.49 mg/L while maximum
BOD is increased by 67.7% from the 2014 year. DO minimum value is
Assessment of impacts of urbanization on surface water quality of the decreased by 29.33% while maximum DO value is decreased by 4.47%.
Krishna river is performed. Trend analysis of various parameter char- Total coliforms minimum count is increased to 330 from 2 MPN/100 ml
acteristics about their concentration variations before and at the com- while the maximum count of total coliforms is increased to 16,000
mencement of urbanization is also carried. From the trend analysis of from 2400 MPN/100 ml during the process of urbanization. Faecal coil-
various parameters prior to urbanization, a significant decreasing trend forms minimum count is increased from 2 to 80 MPN/100 ml while the
10 RENTACHINTALA ET AL .

maximum count is increased to 16,000 from 800 MPN/100 ml dur- Hamed, K. H. (2009). Enhancing the effectiveness of prewhitening in trend
ing the process of urbanization. However, further, more detailed analysis of hydrologic data. Journal of Hydrology, 368(1), 143–155
Hiriart, M. M., Tapia-Palacios, M. A., Zarco-Arista, A. E., & Espinosa-García, A.
parameter-wise long-term urbanization implication integrated studies
C. (2019). Challenges and opportunities on urban water quality in Mex-
may give more insight into the impacts of urbanization on receiving ico City. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 7, 169.
waters especially as the study area is brand new city with no such stud- Huang, G. H., & Xia, J. (2001). Barriers to sustainable water-quality manage-
ies are carried to date. ment. Journal of Environmental Management, 61, 1–23, [Link]
1006/jema.2000.0394
Islam, S. N., Reinstädtler, S., & Ferdaush, J. (2017). Challenges of climate
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS change impacts on urban water quality management and planning in
The authors gratefully acknowledge CWC for providing data for the coastal towns of Bangladesh. International Journal of Environment and Sus-
present study. tainable Development, 16(3), 228.
Jeangros, N. R., Sánchez, J. P. R., Camacho-Botero, L. A., & Mccray, J.
E. (2017). Integrated urban water resources model to improve water
DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT
quality management in data-limited cities with application to Bogott’
Direct requests for these materials may be made to the provider as a, Colombia. Journal of Sustainable Water in the Built Environment, 4(2),
indicated in the Acknowledgements. 04017019, [Link]
Jensen, O., & Wu, H. (2018). Urban water security indicators: Development
and pilot. Environmental Science and Policy, 83, 33–45
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 J. Indian Water Resour. Soc.,
Vol. 41, No. 3 & 4, Jul. & Oct., 2021
TRENDS OF GROUNDWATER LEVEL AND QUALITY OF THE PROPOSED
AMARAVATI CITY, ANDHRA PRADESH, INDIA
Lakshmi Raghu Nagendra Prasad Rentachintala1 and [Link] Reddy2
ABSTRACT
In the present study, the trends of groundwater level and quality for the proposed Amaravati city of Andhra Pradesh state, India are
assessed. Trends of groundwater level and quality are evaluated using data from WRIS [Water Resources Information System] portal and
groundwater and water audit department, Andhra Pradesh for the period 1996-2021 and 2000-2020, respectively. Mann-Kendall [M-K] test
and Sen’s slope estimator are applied to perform trend analysis of groundwater level and quality. When the time series of a parameter is
auto correlated modified versions of Mann-Kendall (M-K) test and R programming are used for trend analysis. The trend analysis indicates
that most of the trends are insignificant and decreasing. Groundwater level is having an insignificant decreasing trend at 5% significance
level with a decline of 0.152 mm per year. Fluorides are with a significant increasing trend with an increase of 0.01 mg/l per year the
findings of the present study can help to determine trends of groundwater level and quality for any existing and/or proposed city.
Keywords: groundwater; Mann-Kendall test; Sen’s slope; R programming

INTRODUCTION the Sen’s slope estimator and obtained that the stronger
increasing trends were recognized in the groundwater level
Groundwater is an intricate system from revive to release, time series in summer and spring than those in autumn and
and its analysis is frequently subject to huge ambiguity due winter. Bui (2012) carried analysis of recent groundwater-
to inadequate data. It is also meagerly monitored and not level trends at spatio-temporal level and found that the
precisely quantified. Constant monitoring of groundwater is levels of groundwater of confined-aquifer were at
needed to identify the regime condition of the sources of
downward trend in almost all locations. Daneshvar
groundwater. Trend analysis of water levels and water
(2012) analyzed the trends in groundwater level and fifteen
quality is essential to elucidate the groundwater availability.
hydro-geochemical elements using non-parametric modified
The trends of groundwater in terms of level and quality
Mann-Kendall test with pre-whitening. It was found that
present variations in groundwater and give its sustainability
and/or resilient characteristics towards climate change and negative trends which were significant (α < 0.1) in level of
land use/land cover changes in urban environments. groundwater were predicted. Panda (2012) investigated the
trends in level of groundwater, temperature extremes and
The present study is aimed at determination of trends of rainfall. It was obtained from the results that a huge number
groundwater level and quality using Mann-Kendall test, of decreasing trends in levels of groundwater [Panda
Sen’s slope and R programming for the proposed Amaravati (2012)].
city, Andhra Pradesh, India.
Lee (2013) studied on relationship between groundwater
Groundwater Trend Analysis Studies and climate change using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope
tests with levels and temperatures of groundwater. It was
Broers and van der Grift (2004) studied monitoring of
found that more plentiful rainfall in the wet season does not
temporal changes in groundwater quality at regional level
add considerably to groundwater recharge while a lesser
and found that the trends are increasing in the aquifer at
amount of rainfall in the dry season can reason for a
depth of shallow level. Visser (2009) compared various
reduction in the groundwater level [Lee (2013)].
methods for the identification and projection of
groundwater quality trends such as statistical methods, Patle (2015) carried time series analysis of groundwater
groundwater dating, transfer functions and deterministic levels and prediction of trend using Mann- Kendall test and
modelling. It was found that there is no single optimal Sen’s slope estimator. It was got from the results that pre
method to perceive trends in quality of groundwater across and post monsoon levels of groundwater would reduce
extensively varying catchments [Visser (2009)]. Tabari [Patle (2015)]. Singh (2015) carried spatio–temporal
(2011) examined the trends in groundwater level annually, analysis of resources of groundwater using Mann–Kendall
seasonally and monthly using the Mann– Kendall test and test, Sen’s slope estimator and linear regression method and
got the results that typically declining trend in the time
1. Ph.D. Scholar, Department of Civil Engineering, College of series of the groundwater. Amini (2015) analyzed
Engineering (A), Andhra University, Visakhapatnam - 530003, variability of fluoride concentrations in spatial and temporal
Andhra Pradesh, India, E-mail: rlrnagendra@[Link] perspective in resources of groundwater using Mann–
2. Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, College of Kendall trend test and got the results that monotonic trend
Engineering (A), Andhra University, Visakhapatnam- 530003,
Andhra Pradesh, India, E-mail: mgmreddy@[Link]
was observed in the time series of fluoride concentrations of
groundwater. Abdullahi (2015) analyzed trends of
Manuscript No. 1562
groundwater level using Mann-Kendall trend test and
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 J. Indian Water Resour. Soc.,Vol. 41, No. 3 & 4, Jul. & Oct., 2021

obtained that a negative increase in trends for the level of basins across India, demonstrating anthropogenic activities
groundwater. affect existing groundwater recharge rates [Bhanja (2019)].
Verma (2019) found the impacts of long-term variations in
Minea (2017) studied groundwater response to changes in
land use/land cover (LULC) on surface and groundwater
precipitations using trend test Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s
resources of quaternary aquifers. It was obtained that the
slope estimator and the correlation between groundwater
large-scale variations in groundwater reservoirs were
and precipitation was determined based on Bravais-Pearson
occurred as LULC changes, features of hydro-geomorphic
correlation. It was found that the increasing trends are
characteristics and wide exploration of groundwater
governing both for annual and seasonal precipitation and
practices taken place [Verma (2019)]. Jame (2020) analyzed
correlation between hydrostatic level and precipitation is
trends of groundwater and found that irrigated area and
stronger and more recurrent for summer and autumn [Minea
groundwater withdrawals were increased during the last 30
(2017)]. Thapa (2017) carried delineation of groundwater
years in humid and temperate regions and area of irrigation
potential zones using a geospatial multi-influencing factor
area reduced in semi-arid regions. Ducci (2020) evaluated
technique and got the results as a declining trend of levels
the trends of nitrate concentrations in groundwater using
of groundwater. Bhanja (2018) estimated groundwater
Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator and found
storage and its controlling factors in long-term and found
variations in groundwater quality at different stations and
that the precipitation has a vital role to affect groundwater
trends were resulting from environmental factors. Hamidov
storage [Bhanja (2018)]. Biswas (2018) studied to recognize
(2020) studied climate change impact on groundwater
the trends in pre- and post-monsoon groundwater levels
management and the depths of water table in the region
using statistical trend tests like Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope
usually reduce based on Mann-Kendall trend test.
estimator, and linear regression model. It was obtained that
the groundwater levels were reduced significantly [Biswas Oiro (2020) assessed groundwater resources status under
(2018)]. Kumar (2018) evaluated trends of groundwater rapid urbanization using numerical modelling. The
with the use of modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) trend test modelled study recommended that anthropogenically-driven
and Sen’s slope estimator. It was obtained that the water reduction trend can be partially mitigated through
level trends variation in two diverse seasons may be due to conjunctive use of water [Oiro (2020)].
the recharge from rainfall in season of post-monsoon
However, there are no studies carried out using numerous
[Kumar (2018)]. Pathak and Dodamani (2018) assessed
modified versions of Mann-Kendall test and R
regional characteristics of groundwater drought using SGI
programming to assess trends of groundwater level and
[Standardized Groundwater level Index] and carried trend
quality for a proposed city.
analysis of groundwater levels using Mann–Kendall test. It
was obtained that significant declining trends were detected Novel Aspects and Objectives of the present study
in more number of the wells which was due to reducing
precipitation and over-abstraction of resources of As discussed in the review of available literature, there are
groundwater [Pathak and Dodamani (2018)]. no much studies performed to assess trends of groundwater
using number of versions of Mann-Kendall test and R
Ouhamdouch (2019) found a decreasing trend of water programming of a proposed city. To build on existing
resources from the piezometric study to evaluate the impact knowledge and to fill gaps as described, the present study
of climate change on groundwater. Also, groundwater aimed at assessment of trends of groundwater level and
quality degradation was observed with salinity increase quality of proposed Amaravati city, Andhra Pradesh state,
from the hydrogeochemical approach [Ouhamdouch India.
(2019)]. Anand (2019) examined trends of groundwater
levels in long-term using GIS [Geographical Information
STUDY AREA
System]. The statistical trend tests, Mann–Kendall test and
Sen’s slope estimator performed had shown that the average Amaravati city of bifurcated new state of Andhra Pradesh,
annual groundwater level lowered beyond 15 m (below India has been chosen as a study area in the present study.
ground level) during all the monsoon seasons as infiltration Amaravati city is located on the bank of Krishna river in
was less and groundwater exploited more [Anand (2019)]. Guntur district. Proposed Amaravati city area is 217.50 km 2
Farid (2019) assessed seasonal and long‑term changes in and is located at 16.510 N latitude and 80.520 E longitude.
groundwater quality due to over exploitation using trend This city area is proposed to make up from agricultural
tests such as Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator tests. lands and 29 number of existing villages belong to various
Groundwater EC [electrical conductivity] and SAR [sodium mandals of Guntur district.
adsorption ratio] values were increased during the pre- Study area map [Fig. 1] i.e. detailed master plan of
monsoon season and were decreased during the post- Amaravati city is being considered for this research study as
monsoon season which was due to more use of groundwater provided / available from AP CRDA/AMRDA web portal.
[Farid (2019)]. Bhanja (2019) estimated variations in This study area master plan map is presented below for
groundwater recharge in major river basins across India. It ready reference.
was found that the precipitation rates do not considerably
impact groundwater recharge in the majority of the river

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 J. Indian Water Resour. Soc.,Vol. 41, No. 3 & 4, Jul. & Oct., 2021

Fig. 1 Detailed master plan of Amaravati city

(Source: AP CRDA/AMRDA)

Hydrogeology of the study area where, x1, x2 ……xn represent n data points,

(Source: Hydrogeological and Hydrological Atlas of A.P. xi and xj are values of data at time i and j respectively.
CGWB 1983) -1 if (xj-xi) < 0
Groundwater is restricted to 60 m depth in study area. sgn(xj – xi) = 0 if (xj-xi) = 0 (2)
Permeability is in the range of 0.01 to 10 m/hr. Specific
yield is in the range of 0.005 to 0.025. Type of soil within 1 if (xj-xi) > 0
the major part of the study area is deltaic alluvial soil. Rock m
type varies from unconsolidated sand with/without clay, silt,
and calcareous hard sedimentaries to non-calcareous
n(n  1)( 2n  5)   t (t
i 1
i i  1)( 2t i  5)

sedimentaries. Also, permeability varies from cumulative Var (S)= (3)

18
high to low within the study area.
where, n is the number of data points, m is the number of
METHODOLOGY tied groups, and ti denotes the number of ties of extent i.
Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator are being MK standard statistic Z is defined as
commonly applied for trend analysis of various parameters. S−1
if S > 0
Var (S)
Mann-Kendall Test: Mann-Kendall test is based on testing
the S statistic defined as Z= 0 if S = 0 (4)
n 1 n S+1
if S < 0
S=  sgn( x j  x i )
i 1 j i 1
(1) Var (S)

A value of positive Z specifies an upward trend and a value

of negative Z signifies a downward trend. The levels of

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 J. Indian Water Resour. Soc.,Vol. 41, No. 3 & 4, Jul. & Oct., 2021

significance (p-values) for every test to find trend can be When the lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient is within the
attained as given in the below equation [Coulibaly and Shi, interval, then the time series is not having a significant
2005] autocorrelation. If the lag-1 autocorrelation coefficient is
beyond the interval, then the time series shows a significant
p = 0.5 - φ Z (5)
autocorrelation at the 5% level of significance.
where, φ ( ) indicates the cumulative distribution function
When time series data of precipitation is significantly auto-
(CDF) of a standard normal variate. At a level of
correlated or serially correlated, modified Mann-Kendall
significance of 0.1, if p ≤ 0.1, then the prevailing trend is
test needs to be considered for trend analysis. Numbers of
regarded as statistically significant.
versions are made available for modified version of Mann-
Sen’s Slope Estimator [Sen, 1968] Kendall test.
Sen’s slope method is a nonparametric method of finding Bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional bias
the scale of trend in terms of slope of trend. For a given corrected pre-whitening
time series xi = x1, x2 ……xn, with data of N pairs, the slope
Out of various modified Mann-Kendall trend
is computed as
tests, bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional
x j  xk bias corrected pre-whitening has all the latest methods to
βi = , ∀ k ≤ j and i = 1,2 …..N (6) remove and resample significant autocorrelation in time
jk
series data such as bootstrapping, bias correction and pre-
Median of N values of βi provides the Sen’s slope estimator, whitening.
β. In the bootstrapped Mann-Kendall trend test with optional
 N 1 if N is odd bias corrected pre-whitening, the empirical distribution of
2
the Mann-Kendall test statistic is determined by
bootstrapped re-sampling. The Hamed (2009) bias
β=
1  N   N 2 if N is even (7) correction pre-whitening technique can be used as a choice
2 2 2
to the default to pre-whitening prior to the bootstrapped
Mann-Kendall test is utilised [Lacombe, 2012].
Autocorrelation Bootstrapped samples are estimated with re-sampling one
When a time series related to hydrology such as value at a time of the time series with replacement. The p-
precipitation is significantly auto-correlated or serially value (ps) of the re-sampled data is calculated by [Yue and
correlated, modified version(s) of Mann-Kendall trend test Pilon, 2004]:
need to be applied. ps = ms/M (11)
For any time series xi = x1, x2 ….xn, lag-1 autocorrelation or The Mann-Kendall test statistics (S) is computed for every
serial correlation coefficient (r1) is determined as [Kendall re-sampled data. The resultant vector of re-sampled S
and Stuart, 1968; Salas, 1980] statistics is subsequently arranged in ascending ordering,
n 1 where ms the rank related to the largest bootstrapped value
1
n 1  (x
i 1
i  E ( x i )).( x i 1  E ( x i )) of S is being less than the test statistic value determined
from the actual data. M is the total number of bootstrapped
r1 = n
(8) re-samples. The default value of M is 1000, however, Yue
1
n  (x
i 1
i  E ( x i )) 2
and Pilon (2004) recommend values between 1000 and
2000.
where, E(xi) is the sample mean and n is the size of sample. R Programming

1
n RStudio is being developed as IDE [Integrated
E(xi) =
n  xi (9) Development Environment] for R programming,
i 1 a programming tool to perform statistical analysis which is
made available as open source as well [R Core Team, 2020;
The limits of probability for r1 on the correlogram of an
Patakamuri and O'Brien, 2020; and Wickham and Bryan,
independent series is provided [Anderson, 1942] as
2019].
 1  1.645 n  2
r1 = for the one – tailed test DATA CONSIDERED
n 1
Groundwater data i.e. level below ground level and various
 1  1.96 n  2 quality parameters data related to the study area is adapted
= for the two – tailed test (10)
n 1 as available from WRIS [Water Resources Information

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 J. Indian Water Resour. Soc.,Vol. 41, No. 3 & 4, Jul. & Oct., 2021

System] portal and groundwater and water audit considered for the period 2000 - 2020. However, as data is
department, Government of Andhra Pradesh state. not available for few parameters, F, K, Na, NO3, Residual
Groundwater level data is considered for the period 1996 - Sodium Carbonate, SAR and total alkalinity, period of trend
2021. Groundwater quality data of various parameters is analysis is considered for the period 2000 - 2018.

Table 1 : Check for Significant Autocorrelation

Parameter Upper Limit Lag- 1 Lower Limit Existence of

Autocorrelation Significant
Coefficient Autocorrelation
Groundwater Level 0.2182 -0.0106 -0.2616 False
Ca 0.4328 -0.0496 -0.7185 False
Cl 0.4059 -0.0697 -0.6281 False
CO3 0.4464 -0.3081 -0.7797 False
F 0.4328 0.1204 -0.7185 False
HCO3 0.4328 0.3609 -0.7185 False
K 0.458 -0.6805 -0.858 False
Mg 0.4328 -0.1061 -0.7185 False
Na 0.458 0.1792 -0.858 False
NO3 0.4328 -0.1836 -0.8382 False
pH 0.4059 0.2111 -0.6281 False
Residual Sodium Carbonate 0.4623 -0.645 -0.9623 False
SAR 0.4623 -0.3572 -0.9623 False
SO4 0.4328 0.2515 -0.7185 False
Total Alkalinity 0.4421 0.7801 -1.109 True
Total Hardness 0.4328 -0.0343 -0.7185 False

Table 2: Trend Results

Parameter Mann-Kendall Static, Z Sen’s Slope p Value

Groundwater Level -0.4771 -0.0038 0.6333
Ca -1.3822 -4.325 0.1669
Cl -1.7889 -39.00 0.0736
CO3 0.4704 0.134 0.6380
F 2.1032 0.1303 0.0354
HCO3 0.1237 10.5714 0.9015
K -0.3757 -13.6 0.7071
Mg 0.1237 0.0307 0.9015
Na 0.3757 24.25 0.7071
NO3 -1.1135 -20.35 0.2655
pH -0.9017 -0.03 0.3672
Residual Sodium Carbonate 0.245 1.475 0.8065
SAR 0.7348 0.3763 0.4624
SO4 -0.9974 -13.225 0.3186
Total Alkalinity 1.6984 58.19 0.0894
Total Hardness -1.2468 -18.8883 0.2125

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 J. Indian Water Resour. Soc.,Vol. 41, No. 3 & 4, Jul. & Oct., 2021

Table 3 : Parameter wise Characteristics of Trend

Parameter Characteristics of Trend Sen’s Slope Remarks
Groundwater Level Insignificant Decreasing Trend -0.0038 No Trend
Ca Insignificant Decreasing Trend -4.325 No Trend
Cl Insignificant Decreasing Trend -39.00 No Trend
CO3 Insignificant Increasing Trend 0.134 No Trend
F Significant Increasing Trend 0.1303 Increasing Trend
HCO3 Insignificant Increasing Trend 10.5714 No Trend
K Insignificant Decreasing Trend -13.6 No Trend
Mg Insignificant Increasing Trend 0.0307 No Trend
Na Insignificant Increasing Trend 24.25 No Trend
NO3 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -20.35 No Trend
pH Insignificant Decreasing Trend -0.03 No Trend
Residual Sodium Carbonate Insignificant Increasing Trend 1.475 No Trend
SAR Insignificant Increasing Trend 0.3763 No Trend
SO4 Insignificant Decreasing Trend -13.225 No Trend
Total Alkalinity Insignificant Increasing Trend 58.19 No Trend
Total Hardness Insignificant Decreasing Trend -18.8883 No Trend

Table 4 : Trend Results of Modified versions of Mann-Kendall Test for Total Alkalinity
Trend Test Z Sen’s Slope
Nonparametric Block Bootstrapped Spearman’s Rank Correlation [Spearman (1904)] 1.7321
Modified Mann-Kendall Test for Serially Correlated Data using the Hamed and Rao
1.6984 58.19
(1998) Variance Correction Approach
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data using the Yue and Wang (2004)
2.8728 58.19
Variance Correction Approach
Modified Mann-Kendall test for serially correlated data using the Yue and Wang (2004)
2.1092 58.19
Variance Correction Approach using the Lag-1 Correlation Coefficient Only
Mann-Kendall test of prewhitened time series data in presence of serial correlation
1.0445 58.19
using the von Storch(1995) approach
Spearman’s Rank Correlation Test [Spearman (1904)] 1.7321
Mann-Kendall trend test applied to trend-free prewhitened time series data in presence
0.0000 58.19
of serial correlation using Yue (2002) approach

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION significance level of 5%. For any trend, if it is resulting as
insignificant increasing or decreasing trend, it means there
Tables 1 to 4 present checks for significant serial or is No Trend [Table 3]. However, groundwater level is
autocorrelation in groundwater data, trend results, and having an insignificant decreasing trend at 5% significance
characteristics of trends of various parameters. level with a decline of 0.152 mm per year. Ca is with an
insignificant decreasing trend with a decrease of 0.21 mg/l
Trend results [Table 4] of total alkalinity reveal that it is per year. Cl is having an insignificant decreasing trend with
having an insignificant increasing trend with an increase of a decrease of 1.86 mg/l per year. CO3 is having an
3.23 mg/l per year. insignificant increasing trend with a decrease of 0.01 mg/l
per year. F is with a significant increasing trend with an
Trend analysis [Tables 1 to 3] shows there is no serial or increase of 0.01 mg/l per year. HCO3 is having an
significant autocorrelation exits for any groundwater insignificant increasing trend with an increase of 0.5 mg/l
parameters except for total alkalinity. The trend analysis for per year. K is having an insignificant decreasing trend with
all parameters including water level is carried at a a decrease of 0.72 mg/l per year. Mg is with an insignificant
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 J. Indian Water Resour. Soc.,Vol. 41, No. 3 & 4, Jul. & Oct., 2021

increasing trend with an increase of 0.002 mg/l per year. Na Amaravati city may add more insights on the groundwater
is with an insignificant increasing trend with an increase of quality due to urbanization.
1.28 mg/l per year. NO3 is with an insignificant decreasing
trend with a decrease of 1.07 mg/l per year. pH is having an REFERENCES
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9
Network Model for Sustainable
and/or Resilient Integrated Stormwater
Management of a Water Sensitive
City—A Case Study

Lakshmi Raghu Nagendra Prasad Rentachintala, M. G. Muni Reddy,

and Pranab Kumar Mohapatra

Abstract Management of stormwater in urban areas have become a challenge due

to continuous increase of imperviousness for various requirements, climate change,
removal of plantation, constant decay of existing stormwater infrastructure. A few of
the challenges which impact stormwater management are in regard to water quantity,
quality and change of climate. Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS), Low
Impact Development (LID), Best Management Practices (BMP), Water Sensitive
Urban Design (WSUD) and Sponge City Programme are various efficient stormwater
management practices in the world. In the present study, proposed Amaravati city
of Andhra Pradesh, India is considered which is envisioned to be the pioneer Smart
City of India and to perform as Water Sensitive City as well. This study aimed to
develop an efficient stormwater network system by developing a network model using
StormCAD software for the proposed Amaravati city. A stormwater network model
is build up to carry a discharge of 23 m3 /s including climate change effect and any
unanticipated future flows adopting the guidelines and recommendations of CPHEEO
manual. Amaravati stormwater network system is designed as an underground gravity
system with conduit as most efficient and economical rectangular box section with
dimensions as 3.8 m × 2.5 m (rise). Various innovative and efficient stormwater
management practices and/or measures are proposed as part of network development.
The results obtained are used for further study on developing efficient, sustainable
and/or resilient integrated stormwater management system for the study area i.e.
proposed Amaravati city to perform as a Water Sensitive City for longer duration.

Keywords Stormwater management · Stormwater network · Runoff · Water

sensitive city

L. R. N. P. Rentachintala (B) · M. G. Muni Reddy

Department of Civil Engineering, A.U. College of Engineering (A), Andhra University,
Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh 530003, India
M. G. Muni Reddy
e-mail: [Link]@[Link]
P. K. Mohapatra
Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Palaj, Gandhinagar, Gujarat 382355, India
e-mail: pranabm@[Link]

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022 199
B. B. Das et al. (eds.), Recent Developments in Sustainable Infrastructure
(ICRDSI-2020)—GEO-TRA-ENV-WRM, Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering 207,
[Link]
200 L. R. N. P. Rentachintala et al.

1 Introduction

Stormwater management for an urban area is one of the different facets associated
with urban water management. For efficient stormwater management, Sustainable
Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS), Low Impact Development (LID) practices with
and without Best Management Practices (BMPs) are few practices being chosen as a
preference for sustainable and/or resilient urban drainage systems in different regions
of the world.
Avellaneda and Jefferson, 2020 assessed the sensitivity of various metrics of
hydrology of a continuously rising dense rain garden SCM (Stormwater Control
Measure) network using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. It was
found that more than 20% of the impervious area has to be treated for the majority
of the metrics of hydrology to alter considerably (Avellaneda and Jefferson, 2020).
PySWMM was developed to offer a single framework to assist amending of hydro-
logic and network parameters (McDonnell et al. 2020). The impacts of climate change
due to extreme events were examined using various AOGCMs (Atmospheric-Ocean
General Circulation Models) for RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6
and RCP8.5 scenarios (Roozbahani et al. 2020). It was found that sustainability of
the UWS (urban stormwater system) was slightly more for the base period simu-
lation than those under RCP scenarios (Roozbahani et al. 2020). A broad frame-
work for analysis of risk in urban stormwater systems was provided using FAHP
(Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process), FSAW (Fuzzy Simple Additive Weighting) and
FTOPSIS (Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solu-
tion) approaches (Shariat et al. 2019). Multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) was
carried to assess various options based on four criteria of sustainability for modelling
of rainfall-runoff using AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and PROMETHEE II
(Preference-Ranking-Organization-Method for Enrichment-Evaluation) and found
that Micro-tunnelling as the preferred option (Alhumaid et al. 2018). Structures of
various pipe networks for stormwater in the urban environments were assessed and
regression models were developed (Lee et al. 2018). A methodology was proposed
to appraise the resilience of an urban water system and obtained results revealed
that the concept would assist for the enhancement of thinking on resilience for
decision making in water infrastructure for water-wiser cities (Makropoulos et al.
2018). A novel procedure of resilience and stochastic approach with an algorithm of
multi objective optimization as part of a Copula-based Monte-Carlo framework for
Urban Stormwater Drainage Systems (USDSs) was developed (Mohammadiun et al.
2018). Results revealed that the optimal strategies would contain a group of relief
tunnels, bypass lines, and storage units for convincing performance with regard to
improvement of resiliency of network (Mohammadiun et al. 2018). An integrated
methodology for modelling of infrastructure networks was presented with a proce-
dure on probabilistic approach with six-step to evaluate resilience (Guidotti et al.
2016). The results enumerated the functionality loss and the recovery process delay
as WN (potable water distribution network) was dependent on the EPN (electric
power network) (Guidotti et al. 2016). The index of system performance using the
Network Model for Sustainable and/or Resilient Integrated Stormwater 201

curves of penalty and the equations was described (Tabesh et al. 2016). The eval-
uation of benefits of the application of recommended indices was carried (Tabesh
et al. 2016). Review of contribution to green/pervious area to urban runoff and its
impact on UWS (Urban Stormwater Systems) was performed (Berggren et al. 2013).
The results indicated that changes in the infiltration capacity can impact on the
urban area and its drainage system in terms of volume and hydraulic system perfor-
mance (Berggren et al. 2013). A method was recommended to manage network of
urban water with controllers of simple nature by integrating SWMM5 (Stormwater
Management Model) and Scilab (Degrave et al. 2013). It was suggested to adopt the
mixed control approach for affirming the advantages of the local upstream control
and the distant downstream control (Degrave et al. 2013). The Model for Urban
Stormwater Improvement Conceptualisation (MUSIC) was developed on flows of
stormwater and pollution (Dotto et al. 2011). It was found that the MUSIC model
was very sensitive to EIF (Effective Impervious Fraction) (Dotto et al. 2011).

1.1 Study Area

Amaravati city of newly formed Andhra Pradesh state, India was chosen as the
study area. Amaravati city is located on the bank of Krishna river in Guntur district.
Proposed Amaravati city area is 217.50 km2 and is located at 16.51° N latitude and
80.52° E longitude. The city area is proposed to make up from agricultural lands
from 29 number of existing villages and part of 2 number of towns belong to various
mandals of Guntur district. This proposed Amaravati city has been envisaged to be
the pioneer among various Smart Cities of India and to be efficient Water Sensitive
City for number of decades.
Study area map i.e. detailed master plan of Amaravati city is being considered for
this research study as provided/available from AP CRDA/AMRDA web portal. This
study area master plan map is presented in Fig. 1 for ready reference.

2 Methodology

Stormwater network model is developed using StormCAD software for the study
area. Also, various specifications and recommendations are adapted from CPHEEO
(Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organisation) manual on
stormwater drainage systems.
202 L. R. N. P. Rentachintala et al.

Fig. 1 Detailed master plan of Amaravati city. Source AP CRDA/AMRDA

2.1 Development of Amaravati StormCAD Model

Amaravati StormCAD model has been developed to provide stormwater network to

proposed Amaravati city as per CPHEEO (Central Public Health and Environmental
Engineering Organisation) manual on stormwater drainage systems, August, 2019,
prevailing practices, innovative measures and recommendations. This StormCAD
network model has designed to convey peak flow through proposed network and
discharges stormflow into Krishna river in the vicinity through proposed outlet at
Undavalli village and near Prakasam barrage, Vijayawada.
The peak flow which can be allowed through the network is considered as per
Cl.[Link] of CPHEEO Manual on stormwater drainage systems i.e.

Qp = 10 CI A (1)

where, Qp : Peak flow at the point of design, m3 /h, C: Runoff coefficient, dimension-
less, I: Average rainfall intensity should be taken for the duration of rainfall equal to
the time of concentration, mm/h, A: Catchment area, hectares.
The catchment is divided into number of sub-catchments. The division of number
of sub-catchments is made as per SWAT model automatic catchment delineation
criteria. Based on the specified sub-catchment delineation criteria, area of each sub-
catchment is obtained. Runoff coefficient is calculated as the ratio between average
annual runoff and average annual precipitation. These hydrologic parameters values
are considered from hydrologic cycle diagram for the period of simulation from
SWAT model. Time of concentration of flow through each sub-catchment is arrived
by finding the distance and time taken by hydraulically remote point to reach the
outlet of that particular sub-catchment. Minimum limiting velocity is considered as
Network Model for Sustainable and/or Resilient Integrated Stormwater 203

0.8 m/s as specified in Table 3.9 of CPHEEO manual on sewerage and sewage treat-
ment for minimum velocity to be ensured in gravity sewers. Maximum velocity is
considered as 3 m/s as per Table 5.2 of CPHEEO manual on stormwater drainage
systems. Return period of 5 years is considered as per Table 4.1 of CPHEEO manual
on stormwater drainage systems for various types of urban catchments. Average
rainfall intensity for each sub-catchment is considered for the rainfall which persists
up to the duration equal to time of concentration. Average rainfall intensity for each
sub-catchment is considered as average maximum daily rainfall corresponding to
recommended design return period i.e. for 5 years return period as per CPHEEO
manual on stormwater drainage systems. The same procedure is repeated for each
sub-catchment and peak flow is estimated from each sub-catchment as per Eq. (1).
Then, total peak runoff from entire catchment is determined as sum of peak runoff
from all sub-catchments. The effect of climate change on rainfall and runoff for the
projected period i.e. for next 30 years is assessed in a different study; it is found as
1.5% on precipitation for 30 years and thus on runoff and also taken into account on
peak runoff . Thus, total peak runoff from entire catchment including climate change
effect is determined. This total peak runoff after rounding up is considered as peak
flow through stormwater network. RCC box section is considered as conduit section
to convey the designed total peak flow. For each conduit of the network, velocity
and discharge of flow are obtained from the model and verified to meet/satisfy
requirements as per CPHEEO manual on stormwater drainage systems. Slope of
each conduit is considered with in 1 in 1000 to 1 in 2000. Cover for each conduit
from its crown/top is adopted as 200 mm from existing ground surface at that conduit
location. However, to meet velocity and flow requirements, no cover is allowed at few
conduit locations which are subject to thickness check as per structural requirements.
Also, deep covers up to 15 m is allowed to meet velocity and flow requirements at
very few conduit locations as existing ground is abruptly and largely varying/falling
at which conduit/box thickness is subject to satisfy structural requirements to take
large amount of overburden load and distribution of load from above lying soil.
Stormwater network has modelled as an underground gravity flow system. Design
Percent Full (%) which is the percent of depth to arrive design capacity is adopted
as 80%. Box type manhole of 2.5 m (Length) × 4.2 m (Width) with a bolted cover is
adopted at and as a junction of two conduits and also at start and stop of each conduit.
Absolute head loss method is adopted at each manhole with a minimum head loss
of 0.1 m.

3 Hydraulic Computations of Design Discharge

Considering daily averaged precipitation data as Tulluru point data (Source: POWER
LARC NASA) at latitude 16.53° N and longitude 80.47° E as majority of the
considered study area belongs to Tulluru mandal (Table 1).
Thus, Average maximum daily rainfall = 89.41 mm/day = 3.73 mm/h.
204 L. R. N. P. Rentachintala et al.

Table 1 Maximum daily rainfall for 5-year return period

Start date End date Daily rainfall Start date End date Daily rainfall
(mm/day) (mm/day)
03-Jan-1981 02-Jan-1986 57.25 03-Jan-2001 02-Jan-2006 73.11
03-Jan-1986 02-Jan-1991 107.24 03-Jan-2006 02-Jan-2011 132.67
03-Jan-1991 02-Jan-1996 97.53 03-Jan-2011 02-Jan-2016 64.35
03-Jan-1996 02-Jan-2001 108.34 03-Jan-2016 25-Feb-2020 74.8

Table 2 Peak flow computations

Sub-basin Sub-basin Distance of Time Time Intensity of Peak flow Peak
area, A, outlet from taken for taken rainfall = 10CIA, flow =
km2 hydraulically the for the corresponding m3 /h 10CIA,
remote point remote remote to tc , I, mm/h m3 /s
from SWAT point to point to
Model (m) reach reach
outlet, tc outlet,
(s) tc (min)
1 2.222 2025 2531.25 42.19 2.62 2913.77 0.81
2 17.47 945 1181.25 19.69 1.22 10,690.82 2.97
3 1.729 2385 2981.25 49.69 3.09 2670.36 0.74
4 14.88 1185 1481.25 24.69 1.53 11,418.46 3.17
5 11.87 2235 2793.75 46.56 2.89 17,179.66 4.77
6 1.773 1680 2100 35.00 2.18 1928.88 0.54
7 5.346 233 290.625 4.84 0.30 804.89 0.22
8 8.446 1770 2212.5 36.88 2.29 9680.79 2.69
9 2.754 2198 2746.875 45.78 2.85 3919.04 1.09
10 1.957 2325 2906.25 48.44 3.01 2946.46 0.82
11 3.565 4193 5240.625 87.34 5.43 9678.74 2.69

Considering Eq. (1) for peak flow computation, runoff coefficient from SWAT
model, C = 0.5. For minimum velocity of 0.8 m/s, considering sub-basin details
from Amravati SWAT model (Table 2).
Therefore, Total peak flow, Qp = 20.51 m3 /s.

4 Design of Conduit Section [As box section]

Consider, conduit section as rectangular box section.

For most efficient/economical rectangular section,

Bed width, b = 2 × depth of flow, d (2)

Network Model for Sustainable and/or Resilient Integrated Stormwater 205

d
Hydraulic mean radius, R = (3)
2
Assume, Bed width of the rectangular channel, b = 3.8 m.
Depth of flow, d = b2 = 3.8
2
= 1.9 m.
Assume, Slope of the channel, S = 1 in 950 = 950
1
= 0.001.
As per Table 5.1 of CPHEEO Manual on Stormwater Drainage Systems, Aug
2019, Manning’s N for Spun concrete pipes (RCC & PSC) with S/S Joints (Design
value) = 0.011.
For most efficient/economical section, Hydraulic mean radius, R = d2 = 1.9
2
=
0.985 m.
Using Manning’s Equation, Velocity of flow, V = N1 R2/3 S1/2

V = 2.85 m/s (4)

Discharge carrying capacity of the rectangular channel, Q, m3 /s = A × V = 7.22

× 2.85 = 20.58 m3 /s > Discharge required = 20.51 m3 /s OK.
Thus, provide, a most efficient rectangular channel as box section with dimensions
as,
Bed width, b = 3.8 m, Depth of flow, d = 1.9 m, Slope, S = 950 1
, and Free board
= 0.6 m.

5 Amaravati Stormwater Network Model

Amaravati stormwater network model has developed using BENTLEY StormCAD

software CONNECT Update2 [Link] version.
Considered, 10% additional discharge to accommodate unanticipated flows
including climate change effect, Design discharge = 1.1 × 20.51 m3 /s =
22.56 m3 /s ≈ 23 m3 /s = 23,000 l/s.
Design Parameters for each conduit [Manual on Stormwater Drainage Systems,
CPHEEO, August, 2019 and IRC: 6-2016 Section-II].
Considered, Design Percent Full (%) = 80%, Velocity = 0.8–3 m/s, Section type
as Box.
Material as Concrete [Steel Forms] [RCC], Rise = 2.5 m [Depth of flow = 1.9 m,
free board = 0.6 m].
Span = 3.8 m [Modified at certain conduit locations i.e. CO2 (4.2 m), CO18
(4.2 m), CO44 (4.0 m) and CO167 (4.2 m) to satisfy velocity and flow requirements],
Cover = 20 cm.
Wall thickness = 72 cm, considering maximum depth of invert from existing
ground surface and IRC Class AA tracked vehicle loading, Manning’s [n/N] = 0.011.
206 L. R. N. P. Rentachintala et al.

Table 3 Range of cover

Range Cover (start) (m) Cover (stop) (m)
Minimum (m) 0.2 0.2
Maximum (m) 14.39 9.28
Note As per CPHEEO Manual on Stormwater Drainage Systems,
CPHEEO, Aug 2019, cover is defined as the distance from the
outside top of the pipe to the final grade of the ground surface and
minimum cover to provide is 0.2 m for RCC box drains

Design Parameters for each manhole

Considered, Section as Box Type, Length = 2.5 m, Width = 4.2 m.
Details of developed Amaravati network model are, number of conduits = 167,
number of manholes = 167 and total length of network = 145.59 km (Table 3).
Outfall [Discharge Point]: Outfall is proposed to locate at a position about 1 km
from Prakasam Barrage, Vijayawada, Andhra Pradesh and discharging stormwater
which is considered to flow through the being developed network into the Krishna
river in the vicinity. The type of boundary condition of outfall is considered as free
outfall. Position of outfall is proposed at an invert level of + 21.30 m. The section of
the conduit conveying stormwater towards the proposed outfall is partly above the
existing ground level in the vicinity such that the invert [discharging level] may be
higher than normal flow level of Krishna river.

6 Various Other Components/Considerations Criteria

for Efficient and Sustainable and/or Resilient Integrated
Stormwater Management

Proposed Alignment of Stormwater Network: Stormwater network needs to be

aligned at the side of a road or a high ground so that any stormwater after falling on
the ground flows towards the nearby conduit of the network through suitable inlets
and gutter system (Fig. 2).
As per Manual on Stormwater Drainage Systems, CPHEEO, August,
2019. Outfall Structure: Adequate protection mechanism should be provided to check
backflow of water in the outfall drain. Cascading and apron structure if necessary
may be incorporated in the Outfall Structure System.
Typical drawing of outlet structure for river/streams is given as shown in Fig. 3.
The back flow control systems, flap gates and flood gates are to be used whenever
necessary based on flow conditions in the water body which receives the flow.
Network Model for Sustainable and/or Resilient Integrated Stormwater 207

Fig. 2 Inlet and gutter system. Source Manual on Stormwater Drainage Systems, CPHEEO,
August, 2019)

Fig. 3 Stormwater conduit outfall. Source Manual on Stormwater Drainage Systems, CPHEEO,
August, 2019

7 Conclusions and Recommendations

Following are the various conclusions from the present stormwater network model
development of the considered study area i.e. proposed Amaravati city.
Amaravati stormwater network model is designed for a discharge of 23 m3 /s with
10% additional discharge to accommodate unanticipated flows including climate
change effect.
A most efficient rectangular channel as box section with dimensions as, bed width
= 3.8 m, depth of flow = 1.9 m, slope = 950 1
with a free board = 0.6 m is proposed
to adopt for stormwater network of proposed Amaravati city, Andhra Pradesh state,
India.
Amaravati stormwater network model contains number of conduits = 167, number
of manholes = 167 and total length of network = 145.59 km.
Stormwater which may flow on the road and adjacent to the road may be allowed
to flow into the network conduit in the proximity through proper inlet and gutter
system.
208 L. R. N. P. Rentachintala et al.

Suitable outfall arrangement needs to be provided with backflow control system

with gates.
During the flood flow to Krishna river in the vicinity with HFL (High Flood
Level) exceeds proposed invert of outfall i.e. + 21.30 m of the developed stormwater
network, proper pumping arrangements are to be provided to discharge total peak
flow through the network to a d/s discharge point where flood flow in the Krishna river
is much lower than invert of discharging rising main as per Manual on Stormwater
Drainage Systems, CPHEEO, August, 2019 guidelines and/or recommendations.
Total peak flow through Amaravati stormwater developed network would be
allowed to discharge in to Krishna river in the vicinity only when there is normal
flow in the river.
Although various discharge options proposed as discussed above, it is highly
recommended that if there is even flow higher than normal flow in the Krishna river,
any amount of flow through proposed network has to be discharged or diverted into
the proposed canal system and/or Low Impact Development [LID] controls with
Best management Practices [BMPs] which will make stormwater management of
proposed Amaravati city as sustainable and/or resilient and ensures the planned city
as Water Sensitive City.
The proposed stormwater network model of proposed Amaravati city is useful
and necessary to provide efficient stormwater management which will craft the
considered proposed city to perform as a Water Sensitive City for longer duration.

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areas in a changing climate. In: Thematic conference, Novatech
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 International Conference on Recent Development in Sustainable Infrastructures:
Research and Practices (ICRDSI-2020)

Network Model for Sustainable and/or Resilient Integrated

Stormwater Management of a Water Sensitive City – A Case Study of
proposed Amaravati City, Andhra Pradesh state, India
Lakshmi Raghu Nagendra Prasad Rentachintala1; [Link] Reddy2; Pranab Kumar

Mohapatra3

1
Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering(A), Andhra
University, Visakhapatnam - 530003, Andhra Pradesh, India, E-mail: rlrnagendra@[Link]
2
Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering(A), Andhra
University, Visakhapatnam- 530003, Andhra Pradesh, India, E-mail: mgmreddy@[Link]
3
Professor, Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Palaj, Gandhinagar -382355, Gujarat,
India. E-mail: pranabm@[Link]

Corresponding Author: rlrnagendra@[Link]

Theme: Sustainability in Water Resource Management

Subtheme: Rainwater harvesting analysis and design

ABSTRACT
Management of stormwater in urban areas have become a challenge due to continuous
increase of imperviousness for various requirements, climate change, removal of plantation,
constant decay of existing stormwater infrastructure. A few of the challenges which impact
stormwater management are in regard to water quantity, quality and change of climate.
Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS), Low Impact Development (LID), Best
Management Practices (BMP), Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) and Sponge City
Programme are various efficient practices which are in and towards realization in different
regions of the world. In the present study, proposed Amaravati city of bifurcated new state of
Andhra Pradesh, India is considered which is envisioned to be the pioneer Smart City of India
and to perform as Water Sensitive City as well. This study aimed to develop an efficient
stormwater network system by developing a network model using StormCAD software for
the proposed Amaravati city. A stormwater network model is build up to carry a discharge of
23 m3/sec including climate change effect and any unanticipated future flows adopting the
guidelines and recommendations of CPHEEO manual on stormwater drainage systems which
contains numerous innovative and efficient design procedures. Amaravati stormwater
network system is designed as an underground gravity system with conduit as most efficient
and economical rectangular box section with dimensions as 3.8 m x 2.5 m [rise]. Various
innovative and efficient stormwater management practices and/or measures are proposed as
part of network development. The results obtained are used for further study on developing
efficient, sustainable and/or resilient integrated stormwater management system for the
selected study area i.e. proposed Amaravati city to perform as a Water Sensitive City for
longer duration.
 International Conference on Recent Development in Sustainable Infrastructures:
Research and Practices (ICRDSI-2020)

Keywords:- stormwater management; stomrwater network; runoff; water sensitive city

Paper ID - 435
SWMM based Integrated Urban Stormwater Management for a Water
Sensitive City: A Case Study of Proposed Amaravati City, Andhra Pradesh
Lakshmi Raghu Nagendra Prasad Rentachintala 1, [Link] Reddy 2, Pranab Kumar Mohapatra3
1
Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering(A), Andhra University,
Visakhapatnam - 530003, Andhra Pradesh, India
2
Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering(A), Andhra University,
Visakhapatnam - 530003, Andhra Pradesh, India
3
Professor, Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Palaj, Gandhinagar -382355, Gujarat, India
Email: rlrnagendra@[Link]

Abstract
Stormwater drainage and its management in urban regions have become a challenge because of the
rapid and random expansion of urban areas, deletion of plant life, and reduction in the efficiency of drainage
infrastructure. A few of the challenges are stormwater management in terms of water quantity and water quality.
Stormwater management model (SWMM) is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or
long term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from urban areas. In the present study, SWMM
has applied for the considered study area i.e. proposed Amaravati city of bifurcated new state of Andhra
Pradesh. The present study focuses on evaluation of the performance of various Low Impact Development
(LID) control options for efficient stormwater management with regard to reduction of runoff from the entire
catchment of the study area. Various LID control options are used for certain portion of each sub-catchment area
with a number of units. The performance of each LID control for each sub-catchment has determined in terms of
surface outflow from each LID control and further decrease in total runoff from each sub-catchment. The
present study finds peak runoff from each sub-catchment and from entire catchment of proposed Amaravati city.
Also, an assessment of diverse LID controls with regard to NO LID control option has made in terms of
attenuation percentage in runoff as a metric to adopt sustainable and/or resilient integrated urban stormwater
management for the proposed Amaravati city to perform as a Water Sensitive City.

Keywords: Stormwater management; SWMM; LID; runoff

1. Introduction

Government of India has initiated to develop number of smart cities in India. Development of
existing or proposed city as smart city needs all effective and efficient infrastructure to transform as
smart city. In the context of water infrastructure, especially stormwater infrastructure needs to be
efficient in terms of drainage and management to become part of smart city and to perform as water
sensitive city. As each city during various phases of development converts more area into impervious
by modifying more area into paved, which results in more runoff especially surface runoff. Thus,
management of stormwater in urban areas is becoming a challenge nowadays. Stormwater
management in terms of runoff attenuation would become a solution to the transformation of more
urban area into impervious.
For efficient storm water management, various Low Impact Development (LID) practices with and
without Best Management Practices (BMPs) are being considered as a paramount option for
sustainable and/or resilient urban drainage systems in various countries.
Proposed Amaravati city is considered to develop as a best smart city by Government of Andhra
Pradesh. Proposed Amaravati city is within considerable rainfall zone and completely new smart city
being developed, thus, there is a need to provide an effective stormwater management to act as a
water sensitive city for longer duration. Proper stomwater management system for effective and
efficient control and discharge can be taken as a research study for the proposed Amaravati city.
For the considered Amaravati city of Andhra Pradesh state, to perform the research study of
stormwater management system as efficient, Storm Water management Model (SWMM) of US EPA
[Environmental Protection Agency] has considered as a tool to model and determination of
performance of various LID controls and BMP options for efficient stormwater management.

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2. Study Area

Study area has chosen as proposed Amaravati city of newly formed Andhra Pradesh state,
India. Amaravati city is located on the bank of Krishna river in Guntur district. Proposed Amaravati
0 0
city area is 217.50 [Link] and is located at 16.51 N latitude and 80.52 E longitude. This city area
is proposed to make up from agricultural lands and 29 number of existing villages and part of 2
number of towns belong to various mandals of Guntur district, Andhra Pradesh. This proposed
Amaravati city has been envisaged to be the pioneer among various Smart Cities of India and to be
efficient Water Sensitive City for number of decades.

Study area map i.e. detailed master plan of Amaravati city is being considered as provided
/available from AP CRDA/AMRDA web portal for this research study. This study area master plan
map is presented below for ready reference.

Figure1 Detailed master plan of Amaravati city. (Source: AP CRDA/AMRDA)

3. Literature Review

Bai et al. (2019) considered study area as Sucheng District of Suqian City, Jiangsu Province,
China. SWMM (storm water management model) utilized to study the effect of four different types of
LID scenarios [1- no LID technique, 2 - LID technique based on infiltration, 3 - LID technique based
on water storage, 4 - LID technique based on the combination of infiltration and water storage] on
urban flooding under various rainfall patterns. The combined model (infiltration + storage) performed
better to decrease peak flow and flood volume, with the maximum reduction rate 32.5% and 31.8%
for peak flow and flood volume respectively. “Under all the LID designs, runoff reduction gradually
increases with the increasing rainfall amount, and peak reduction becomes stable when rainfall
amount reaches about 81.8 mm. In general, the combined model (infiltration + storage) performs
better than any other scenarios in runoff reduction. The research shows that LID facilities can greatly

562
mitigate flood, thus the urban flooding disasters caused by extreme rainstorms can be prevented” [Bai
et al. (2019)].

Luan et al. (2019) has considered a study area located in the southwestern part of the pilot
site, with a total area of 181.8 ha and the effective catchment area of 169 ha (excluding rivers). The
New Western City of Zhuhai, one of the second groups of Sponge City pilot sites, was a
representative urbanizing area in the Pearl River Delta City Cluster in China. This study determined
advantages of each Single and Combined GSI [Green Stormwater Infrastructure] technologies: (i)
Distributed-Centralized Combined GSIs yields comprehensive optimal benefit; and (ii) Centralized
Single GSIs may yield acceptable performance with low cost. Also, this study identified that among
the Single GSI strategies, porous pavements, bioretention, and detention basins were advantageous in
runoff volume reduction, TSS load reduction, and peak flow reduction, respectively.

Luan et al. (2017) considered a mountainous area related to Fragrant Hill Town, Haidian
District of Beijing, China. This study area is located at the foot of the eastern side of Fragrance Hills,
a closed mountain catchment. Mountainous urban areas with high risk of local flooding and
waterlogging, all LID measures were only effective in controlling one-year and two-year rainfall
events.

Niazi et al. (2017) reviewed available literature on SWMM model performance in regard to
calibration and validation. A gap analysis performed which evaluated the model‟s ability to perform
water-quality simulations with green infrastructure (GI) / low impact development (LID) designs and
effectiveness. “The ability to explicitly model important chemical transformation and physical
processes in the shallow groundwater (or vadose zone) may be necessary for SWMM to simulate in-
stream water quality effects, if a significant portion of pollutants flux through this compartment. In
addition, because of the reservoir-based representation of subsurface, SWMM is unable to model
regional groundwater flow, as it requires considering coupled interaction between adjacent reservoirs
representing the groundwater underneath each sub-catchment” [Niazi et al. (2017)].

Xie et al. (2017) has taken Nanshan village in Jiangsu Province, China as a research area. Xie
et al. (2017) applied SWMM to the chosen study area to find the variation between the combined
system (i.e., permeable pavement + grassed swales) and a single LID facility on the storm-water
management effect. When the rainfall repetition period ranged from 0.33a to 10a [„a‟ refers to rainfall
repetition period], the total runoff reduction at LID facilities were arranged varied from 100% to
27.5%. The peak flow reduced in the range from 100% to 15.9%. “The runoff-yielding time was
eliminated or delayed by 13 min to 5 min and the peak-flow occurrence time was eliminated or
delayed by 17 min to 5 min after LID treatment” [Xie et al. (2017)].

Xu et al. (2017) had chosen a case study in Tianjin, China to apply a proposed methodology
which integrated LID-BMP chain layout optimization in site-scale in the complete block-scale urban
area. Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) was combined to SWMM through Python
to complete the site-scale optimization process. A multi-index evaluation with runoff quantity indices,
pollutant loads, and construction costs simultaneously aided to opt for the cost-effective scenario as
the final planning scheme. Results indicated that “more than 75% control rate of total runoff volume,
22% – 46% peak flow reduction efficiency, and more than 32% pollutant removal rate were achieved”
[Xu et al. (2017)].

Chow et al. (2012) considered the stormwater observation in southern Johor, Peninsular
Malaysia between June 2008 and March 2010. Runoff depth and peak flow were sensitive to changes
in the input parameters of percentage of imperviousness, width, depth of impervious area, and
Manning‟s N of impervious area.

Wang and Altunkaynak (2012) performed a case study to compare SWMM and a developed
fuzzy logic models for the predictions of total runoff of Cascina Scala watershed, Pavia in Italy. 35
independent rainfall events were considered for 1990 – 1995 to find the performance of SWMM and

563
fuzzy logic models from a comparison study between predicted total runoff and measured data.
Performance analysis has done in regard to root mean squared error (RMSE) and coefficient of
efficiency (CE) for SWMM and fuzzy logic model. The coefficient of efficiency (CE) value for
SWMM model was 0.81 and that for the fuzzy logic predictions was 0.90. The fuzzy logic model has
done better than the SWMM with lower RMSE for runoff predictions.

Chung et al. (2011) demonstrated the integrated continuous simulation-MADM [multi-

attribute decision making] approach applied to the Mokgamcheon watershed. “The procedure
integrates continuous urban runoff simulation results from Storm Water Management Model
(SWMM) with the application of an alternative evaluation index (AEI) and MADM techniques,
following the driver-pressure-state impact-response (DPSIR) approach” [Chung et al. (2011)].
DEFINITE (decisions on a finite set of alternatives) comprises five diverse multi-attribute methods,
and cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis tools. DEFINITE analyses an array of ranking
MADM methods to combine into the AEI approach to check consistency and to provide a qualitative
comparison to decision makers to find uncertainties in the input data, weights, and process and to
guarantee consistency.

Damodaram et al. (2010) applied an approach to model to a watershed located on the campus
of Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas, to forecast the stormwater decreases as a
outcome from retrofitting existing infrastructure with LID technologies. Results reveal that
application of various LID practices capitulate considerable stormwater control for small events and
less control for flood events. Further, outcomes of this analysis were “infiltration-based LID
technologies are more effective than BMPs for small storms, and storage based BMP infrastructure is
more effective for managing runoff from more intense storms. To achieve both flood control and
sustainability objectives of stormwater management, LID and BMPs may be used in combination”
[Damodaram et al. (2010)].

Cambez et al. (2008) applied SWMM5 to simulate hydraulics and water quality in a 110 ha
urban area, at Odivelas, a neighbour city of Lisbon. This area was segregated in four catchments.
Flows were increased to storage tank plant [STP] from 2 to 4 times the dry weather flow, the overflow
discharges are reduced on 41% for the no storage scenario, and on 48% for the two simulated storage
scenarios.

Choi and Ball (2002) presented a methodology for assessment of parameter values that
control with the use of a decision support system. The proposed methodology utilizes a GIS database,
optimization methods and SWMM to deduce spatially variable control parameters.

Control parameter values for a catchment modeling system typically were determined by one
of two alternative methods: (i) modification of control parameter values until the simulated and
monitored hydrographs, or other catchment response measure, are similar; and (ii) selection of control
parameter values based on some hydrological, hydraulic or other characteristic of the catchment. The
study area was the Centennial Park Catchment, Sydney, Australia.

The optimization algorithm in MATLAB was employed to search for the optimum values of
factors influencing the transformation of catchment information into catchment modeling system
control parameters. Resulting from this approach, it was found that high accuracy control parameter
estimation was obtained.

4. Data considered for development of Amaravati SWMM Model

Amaravati SWMM Model has been developed to evaluate the performance of various LID
controls and BMP options for efficient storm water management with regard to runoff attenuation for
the considered study area i.e. proposed Amaravati city.

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The following data for Amaravati SWMM Model is considered, for each type of NO LID and various
LID controls and BMP options.
Software used for SWMM – US EPA SWMM 5.1.014 version
Period of simulation – From 01-Jan-1982 to 31-Jul-2014
No. of sub-catchments – 11
It is assumed and evident from Amaravati SWAT model that contribution of groundwater flow and
any lateral flow to total runoff are insignificant.

4.1 Climatology data

Precipitation data is obtained from data sets of SWAT TAMU web portal.
Evaporation data is considered as (i) Monthly averages and (ii) From Temperature data.
Temperature data is considered for Tulluru village area at Latitude 16.53001 0 N, Longitude 80.470010
E from POWER LARC NASA web portal.
Wind data is considered as monthly averages from data sets of SWAT TAMU web portal.

4.2 Sub-catchment data

Percentage of ground slope is assumed as 0.1 i.e. 1 in 1000, which means for every 1000 m distance
on the ground, it is assumed that there is a ground drop of 1 m. Manning‟s N for impervious is
considered as 0.013 [for concrete with float finish surface], Manning‟s N for pervious area is
considered as 0.03 [for earth winding and sluggish and with grass, some weeds]. No depression
storage is considered both for impervious and pervious areas. Infiltration process is considered as per
CURVE NUMBER method.

4.3 LID data

Considered,
Area of each LID unit = 2 acres = 8093.7 m2
Surface width per unit = 500 m
Percentage initially saturated = 0, Percentage of Non-LID impervious area treated = 95%
Percentage of Non-LID pervious area treated = 95%
Considered, all outflows from each LID will be returned to non-LID pervious area.
The detailed master plan drawing of proposed Amaravati city is considered for SWMM model
development. The identification of catchment area for the considered main outlet position and further
dividing total catchment into a number of sub-catchments and their areas are obtained from SWAT
model.

5. Methodology for development of Amaravati SWMM Model

EPA SWMM [Storm Water Management Model] is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation

model used for single event or long term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from
primarily urban areas. The runoff component of SWMM operates on a collection of sub-catchment
areas that receive precipitation and generate runoff and pollutant loads. The routing portion of
SWMM transports this runoff through a system of pipes, channels, storage/treatment devices, pumps
and regulators. SWMM tracks the quantity and quality of runoff generated within each sub-catchment,
flow rate, flow depth, quality of water in each pipe and channel during a simulation period comprised
of multiple time steps. SWMM was first developed in 1971 and has undergone several major
upgrades and modifications since then. SWMM continues to be widely used throughout the world for
planning, analysis and design related to stormwater runoff, combined sewers, and other drainage
systems in urban areas.

Number of trials/iterations are performed for the given data and conditions as mentioned in
above section 4 for Amaravati SWMM model. The optimal results in terms of runoff attenuation are

565
obtained after executing number of trials by varying impervious and pervious area proportions. The
optimal results of various LID control options obtained are compared with reference to NO LID
option for total peak runoff from the entire catchment. Also, the optimal results are verified by
varying same and differing areas for impervious and zero depression impervious areas. Sensitivity of
considering same and different areas for impervious and zero depression impervious areas has been
analyzed in terms of peak runoff from each sub-catchment. Also, the sensitivity of considering
evaporation from temperatures and as monthly averages has been analyzed and the results have shown
that variation in evaporation and peak runoff from each sub-catchment is nominal. Further, the
sensitivity of % ground slope, Manning‟s N for impervious and pervious areas, depth of depression in
impervious area and depth of zero depression in impervious area on peak runoff magnitude variation
of each sub-catchment has analyzed and it is found that variation of peak runoff is negligible though
these parameters are influencing total runoff from pervious and impervious areas.

Table 1 Impervious area as a percentage of land use Table 2 Amaravati City land use/ land
[Source: Storm Water Management Model Reference cover types and percentage of each land
Manual Volume I – Hydrology (Revised)] use / land cover area.
[Source: Amaravati SWAT Model ]
Land Use / Land Percentage
Land Use Percentage
Cover Type Area
Impervious
Area
Agriculture 59.89
Commercial 56
Industrial 76 Water 1.64
High density residential 51 Pasture 10.64
Medium density residential 38 Built-Up 12.66
Low density residential 19 Forest 15.16
Institutional 34
Agricultural 2
Forest 1.9
Open Urban Land 11

From the above tables reference on i. SWMM criteria on impervious area as a percentage of each land
use, ii. Amaravati land use / land cover types and their proportions, equivalent imperious area as per
SWMM manual is obtained as mentioned below which is 9.52 %.

Percentage of impervious area as per SWMM manual criteria = Percentage of impervious area from
Agriculture + Forest + Open urban land / pasture + Built – up [as average of commercial, industrial,
High density residential and Institutional]
59.89 15.16 10.64 56+76+51+34 12.66
= 2 x 100 + 1.9 x 100 + 11 x 100 + [ 4
] x 100
= 1.1978 + 0.288 +1.1704 + 6.8681 = 9.52 %
∴ Percentage of impervious area as per SWMM manual criteria = 9.52 %

No depth of depression for impervious and no depth of zero depression for zero depression
areas are being considered. For the given percentage of ground slope, Manning‟s N for impervious
and pervious areas, starting with the above 9.52% impervious and no zero depression impervious area,
remaining all as pervious area and evaporation as monthly average option is considered to model to
compare results with various other options of LID controls occupying certain part of each sub-
catchment. For the same set of data as mentioned above, 9.52% impervious and no zero depression
impervious area, remaining all area as pervious area and evaporation from temperature is considered
to model as next NO LID option.
Another NO LID option considered to model is 100% impervious and 100% zero depression
impervious area. By considering bio-retention cell as LID control option for part of each sub-
catchment area with a number of units, runoff results are found. The optimal results with bio-retention
cell LID option are obtained by varying the occupying area of bio-retention cell. The remaining area
of each sub-catchment is modelled as impervious even with zero depression area.

566
6. Results & Analysis
Total Peak Runoff from No LID [with 9.52% Impervious Area, zero percentage Zero Depression
Impervious Area and Evaporation from Monthly averages] Option = 207.17 m3/s --- Option (1)

Table 3 Comparison of various LID Control Options for Runoff Reduction

LID Control Description of LID Control Option Total Peak Percentage of total
Option Runoff [m3/s] runoff reduction [Link]
NO LID Option (1)
No LID with 9.52% Impervious Area, zero 206.55 0.30
percentage Zero Depression
Impervious Area, Evaporation from
Temperature
No LID with 100% Impervious Area, 100% 207.88 -0.34
Zero Depression Impervious Area,
Evaporation from Monthly Averages
No LID with 100% Impervious Area, 100% 206.88 0.14
Zero Depression Impervious Area,
Evaporation from Temperature
Bio-Retention with 90% Impervious Area, 90% Zero 172.13 16.91
Cell Depression Impervious Area, Bio-
Retention Cell for 10% Area
Bio- with 80% Impervious Area, 80% Zero 111.49 46.18
Retention Depression Impervious Area , Bio-
Cell Retention Cell for 20% Area
Bio- with 70% Impervious Area, 70% 52.75 74.54
Retention Zero Depression Impervious
Cell Area, Bio-Retention Cell for
30% Area
Bio- with 60% Impervious Area, 60% Zero 4.5 97.83
Retention Depression Impervious Area, Bio-
Cell Retention Cell for 40% Area
Bio- with 50% Impervious Area, 50% Zero 5.28 97.45
Retention Depression Impervious Area, Bio-
Cell Retention Cell for 50% Area
Infiltration With 50% Impervious Area, 50% Zero 3.52 98.30
Trench Depression Impervious Area and 50%
Area with Infiltration Trench
Permeable With 90% Impervious Area, 90% Zero 169.74 18.07
Pavement Depression Impervious Area and 10%
Area with Permeable Pavement
Rain Barrel With 50% Impervious Area, 50% Zero 176.24 14.93
Depression Impervious Area and 50%
Area with Rain Barrel
Rain Garden With 50% Impervious Area, 50% Zero 131.32 36.61
Depression Impervious Area and 50%
Area with Rain Garden
Vegetative With 50% Impervious Area, 50% Zero 133.29 35.66
Swale Depression Impervious Area and 50%
Area with Vegetative Swale

567
NOTE: Negative sign of percentage of total peak runoff reduction indicates that increase of total peak
runoff [Link] considered NO LID Option.

The same procedure as that of bio-retention cell LID option is adopted for other LIDs such as
infiltration trench, rain garden, permeable pavement, rain barrel and vegetative swale. The total peak
runoff results obtained from various LID control options are compared with that from a particular No
LID option.

7. SWMM Model Calibration and Validation

Following table gives observed precipitation data over various areas and from various sources which
is used for further calibration purpose.

Table 4 Observed Precipitation Data

Precipitation,
[Link]. Area Time Period Source
mm
Proposed From 01-Jan-1982 IMD, Gannavaram
1 5286.78
Amaravati City to 28-Feb-1989 Station
Mangalagiri From 01-Mar-1989
2 27552.30 AP CRDA / AMRDA
mandal to 31-Jul-2014
From 01-Mar-1989
3 Tulluru mandal 24327.06 AP CRDA / AMRDA
to 31-Jul-2014

Considering Weighted Mean method,

Average rainfall over Mangalagiri and Tulluru mandals = P 1W1 + P2W2 (1)
where, P1 = Precipitation over Managalagiri mandal = 27552.30 mm
P2 = Precipitation over Tulluru mandal = 24327.06 mm
A
W1 = Thiessen weight for Managalagiri mandal precipitation = 1A (2)
A2
W2 = Thiessen weight for Tulluru mandal precipitation = (3)
A
where,
A1 = Area of Thiessen polygon of Mangalagiri mandal
A2 = Area of Thiessen polygon of Tulluru mandal
∑A = Total area of Thiessen polygon
As Mangalagiri and Tadepalli mandals are in close proximity,
Total no. of villages in Mangalagiri mandal including that of Tadepalli mandal = 8+ 3 =11
Total no. of villages in Tulluru mandal = 20
Adopting, importance factor of 0.94 for W1 and W2 to account for uncertainties and calibration
purpose,
11
Thus, W1 = 0.94 x 31 = 0.3335
20
W2 = 0.94 x 31 = 0.6065
Average rainfall over Mangalagiri and Tulluru mandals = P 1W1 + P2W2
= 27552.30 x 0.3335 + 24327.06 x 0.6065
Therefore, Average rainfall over Mangalagiri and Tulluru mandals = 23943.05 mm
Thus, observed precipitation in proposed Amaravti city area for the period from 01-Jan-1982 to31-
Jul-2014 = 2 x 23943.05 + 5286.78 = 53172.88 mm
For SWMM simulation sub-basin wise, total precipitation is considered from SWAT TAMU data sets.
n 2
i=1 Oi − Si
Nash – Sutcliffe Coefficient / Efficiency = NSE = 1- n 2 (4)
i=1 O i − O avg
[Nash and Sutcliffe, 1970]

568
 n
2 [ i=1 O i −O avg (S i − Savg )]2
Coefficient of determination, R = n 2 n
(5)
i=1 O i −O avg i=1(S i − S avg )2
where, n is the number of data,
i is the ith observed or simulated data,
O and S are observed and simulated values of the data,
Oavg is the average of observed data,
Savg is the average of simulated data

Table 5 NSE Check for Total Runoff

Total SWMM Total Runoff

Observed
Sub- Precipitation Simulated Precipitation Coefficient
Total Runoff,
basin from SWMM Total Runoff, from Observed from SWMM
mm
Model, mm mm data, mm Model
1 53085.09 33859.21 53172.88 0.638 33924.30
2 53086.09 34225.42 53172.88 0.645 34296.51
3 53085.09 33766.53 53172.88 0.636 33817.95
4 53085.09 34123.38 53172.88 0.643 34190.16
5 53085.09 33796.69 53172.88 0.637 33871.12
6 53085.09 33963.58 53172.88 0.640 34030.64
7 53085.09 34690.56 53172.88 0.653 34721.89
8 53085.09 33940.30 53172.88 0.639 33977.47
9 53084.09 33803.52 53172.88 0.637 33871.12
10 53085.09 33778.27 53172.88 0.636 33817.95
11 53085.09 33430.33 53172.88 0.630 33498.91
Thus, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency for Total Runoff, NSE = 0.96

35000 Sub-basin wise Total Runoff, mm -

Observed Vs SWMM Simulated
Sub-basin wise Total
SWMM Simulated

34500
Runoff, mm

34000

R² = 0.998
33500

33000
33000 33500 34000 34500 35000
Observed Sub-basin wise Total Runoff, mm

Figure 2 Sub-basin wise Total Runoff, mm - Observed Vs SWMM Simulated

569
 Table 6 Mandal wise Maximum Daily Rainfall
(Source: AP CRDA/AMRDA)

[Link]. Name of Mandal Maximum daily rainfall, mm/day

1 Mangalagiri 203.00
2 Tulluru 183.00

Percentage change in maximum precipitation over two mandals = 9.85%

Thus, adopting the above percentage change as percentage increase for maximum precipitation to
account for uncertainties and calibration purpose,
Considering, maximum precipitation from Mangalagiri mandal = 203.00 x 1.0985 = 223.00 mm/day.

Table 7 NSE Check for Peak Runoff

Peak Runoff from Peak Runoff Peak Runoff from

Sub- Sub-basin
SWMM Model, Coefficient from observed maximum
basin Area, km2
m3/s SWAT Model precipitation, m3/s
1 2.222 6.39 0.87 4.99
2 17.470 50.41 0.95 42.65
3 1.729 4.97 0.90 4.01
4 14.880 42.77 0.85 32.58
5 11.870 34.12 0.94 28.67
6 1.773 5.10 0.89 4.09
7 5.346 15.36 0.94 13.03
8 8.446 24.28 0.94 20.42
9 2.754 7.92 0.94 6.70
10 1.957 5.63 0.92 4.64
11 3.565 10.22 0.78 7.16
Thus, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency for Peak Runoff, NSE = 0.877

60
Sub-basin wise Peak Runoff, m3/s -
Observed Vs SWMM Simulated
Sub-basin wise Peak Runoff, m3/s

50

40
SWMM Simulated

30

20
R² = 0.994
10

0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Observed
Sub-basin wise Peak Runoff, m3/s
Figure 3 Sub-basin wise Peak Runoff, m3/s - Observed Vs SWMM Simulated

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 Table 8 Validation Table

Coefficient of Nash-Sutcliffe
Type of Runoff
determination, R2 Efficiency, NSE
Total Runoff, mm 0.998 0.960
Peak Runoff, m3/s 0.994 0.877
Validation results from above Table 8 affirm that observed and SWMM simulated runoff results are in
very good agreement for the considered study area i.e. proposed Amaravati city of Andhra Pradesh.

8. Conclusions
From the above results obtained of various hydrological and field scenarios i.e., No LID and LID
control options which are also Best Management Practices [BMPs], number of conclusions can be
drawn. Following are the key conclusions.
OPTION - (1):
NO LID option is considered as 9.52% Impervious, zero percent Zero Depression Impervious and
Evaporation from Monthly averages.

Total peak runoff reduced slightly in other NO LID options such as (i) with 9.52% impervious, zero
percent Zero Depression Impervious Area, Evaporation from temperature and (ii) with 100%
Impervious, 100% Zero Depression Impervious Area, Evaporation from temperature with reference to
reference to NO LID option as mentioned above (1).

Substantial total peak runoff reduction from entire catchment can be occurred for following LID
control options with reference to NO LID option as mentioned above (1).

i. with 80% Impervious Area, 80% Zero Depression Impervious Area, Bio-Retention Cell for
20% Area – Percentage of total peak runoff reduction is 46.18 %
ii. with 70% Impervious Area, 70% Zero Depression Impervious Area, Bio-Retention Cell for
30% Area - Percentage of total peak runoff reduction is 74.54 %
iii. with 60% Impervious Area, 60% Zero Depression Impervious Area, Bio-Retention Cell for
40% Area - Percentage of total peak runoff reduction is 97.83 %
iv. with 50% Impervious Area, 50% Zero Depression Impervious Area, Bio-Retention Cell for
50% Area - Percentage of total peak runoff reduction is 97.45 %
v. With 50% Impervious Area, 50% Zero Depression Area and 50% Area with Infiltration
Trench - Percentage of total peak runoff reduction is 98.30 %
vi. With 50% Impervious Area, 50% Zero Depression Impervious Area and 50% Area with Rain
Garden - Percentage of total peak runoff reduction is 36.61 %
vii. With 50% Impervious Area, 50% Zero Depression Impervious Area and 50% Area with
Vegetative Swale - Percentage of total peak runoff reduction is 35.66 %
viii. There may be numerous LID control options providing for certain part of each sub-catchment
area which may attain slight to substantial total peak runoff reduction with reference to No
LID option as mentioned in option (1) above.
ix. Weighted mean method and importance factor is adopted for calibration purpose.
x. Coefficient of determination, R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency, NSE values confirm that
observed and SWMM simulated runoff results are in very good agreement

Thus, above results and conclusions are evident for highlighting that provision of various LID controls
and BMP options even for certain part of each sub-catchment area can attenuate total runoff, total
peak runoff significantly.
The obtained results of hydrologic cycle parameters including runoff of proposed Amaravati city are
useful and necessary to provide efficient stormwater management measures and/or practices which
will enable the considered proposed Smart city to implement as a Water Sensitive City for longer
duration.

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