ACADIA HEALTHCARE NDQ-ACHC RECENT
PRICE 37.13 P/ERATIO 11.7(Trailing:
Median: 30.0) P/E RATIO 0.63 YLD
12.2 RELATIVE DIV’D
Nil VALUE
LINE
TIMELINESS 5 Lowered 11/29/24 High:
Low:
49.1
22.6
66.9
38.8
85.6
54.4
65.9
32.5
54.3
26.9
45.3
24.3
35.2
25.1
51.0
11.1
68.6
48.6
89.9
50.1
86.4
66.5
87.8
37.8
Target Price Range
2027 2028 2029
SAFETY 3 New 3/3/23 LEGENDS
9.0 x ″Cash Flow″ p sh
TECHNICAL 2 Raised 10/18/24 . . . . Relative Price Strength
Options: Yes
200
160
BETA 1.45 (1.00 = Market) Shaded area indicates recession
18-Month Target Price Range 100
Low-High Midpoint (% to Mid) 80
$33-$89 $61 (65%) 60
50
2027-29 PROJECTIONS 40
Ann’l Total 30
Price Gain Return
High 95 (+155%) 27% 20
Low 65 (+75%) 15%
% TOT. RETURN 10/24
Institutional Decisions THIS VL ARITH.*
4Q2023 1Q2024 2Q2024 STOCK INDEX
Percent 45 1 yr. -41.2 28.7
to Buy 161 169 148 shares 30
to Sell 149 147 188 3 yr. -30.3 10.7
traded 15
Hld’s(000) 92698 92909 96862 5 yr. 44.1 73.6
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 © VALUE LINE PUB. LLC 27-29
-- -- -- 6.89 8.17 14.25 16.97 25.37 32.43 32.58 34.45 35.43 23.74 26.00 29.03 32.09 33.90 36.30 Revenues per sh 44.55
-- -- -- .40 .57 1.33 1.96 2.49 2.97 3.94 2.48 3.11 2.85 3.84 4.35 1.21 4.70 5.15 ‘‘Cash Flow’’ per sh 7.35
-- -- -- .47 .53 .98 1.50 1.64 1.42 2.30 .67 1.24 1.75 2.59 2.98 d.24 3.10 3.35 Earnings per sh A 5.25
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Nil Nil Div’ds Decl’d per sh Nil
-- -- -- .57 .55 1.54 2.30 3.90 3.55 3.15 3.91 3.25 2.46 2.75 3.29 4.65 5.95 5.85 Cap’l Spending per sh 5.20
-- -- -- 3.00 8.67 9.60 14.88 23.90 25.01 29.55 26.68 28.56 21.58 28.28 31.28 30.48 33.10 37.30 Book Value per sh B 52.00
-- -- -- 32.12 49.89 50.07 59.21 70.75 86.69 87.06 87.44 87.72 88.02 89.03 89.91 91.26 93.20 94.50 Common Shs Outst’g C 96.00
-- -- -- 19.1 33.6 35.9 33.5 42.3 36.4 18.2 NMF 24.8 17.5 23.2 24.2 24.5 Bold figures are Avg Ann’l P/E Ratio 12.0
-- -- -- 1.20 2.14 2.02 1.76 2.13 1.91 .92 NMF 1.32 .90 1.25 1.40 1.40 Value Line Relative P/E Ratio .65
estimates
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Avg Ann’l Div’d Yield Nil
CAPITAL STRUCTURE as of 9/30/24 1004.6 1794.5 2810.9 2836.3 3012.4 3107.5 2089.9 2314.4 2610.4 2928.7 3160 3430 Revenues ($mill) 4375
Total Debt $1877.9 mill. Due in 5 Yrs $907.2 mill. 20.4% 21.4% 20.6% 20.5% 19.0% 18.3% 20.5% 21.2% 21.6% 21.8% 22.0% 22.0% Operating Margin 23.0%
LT Debt $1804.8 mill. LT Interest $145.0 mill. 32.7 63.6 135.1 143.0 158.8 164.0 95.3 106.7 117.8 132.3 155 170 Depreciation ($mill) 210
(38% of Cap’l)
83.2 112.4 122.4 199.8 58.2 108.9 155.7 235.1 273.1 d21.7 285 315 Net Profit ($mill) 495
34.0% 32.4% 43.1% 15.7% 69.4% 19.0% 23.6% 26.1% 25.2% 25.5% 25.0% 25.0% Income Tax Rate 25.0%
Leases, Uncapitalized Annual rentals $32.7 mill. 8.3% 6.3% 4.4% 7.0% 1.9% 3.5% 7.4% 10.2% 10.5% NMF 9.0% 9.2% Net Profit Margin 11.3%
No Defined Benefit Pension Plan 108.2 4.5 85.0 94.2 34.0 78.6 1215.2 90.1 117.8 d289.8 d100 200 Working Cap’l ($mill) 400
Pfd Stock None 1069.3 2195.4 3253.0 3205.1 3159.4 3105.4 2968.9 1478.6 1364.5 1342.5 1770 1730 Long-Term Debt ($mill) 1135
881.0 1691.1 2167.7 2572.9 2333.3 2505.4 1899.5 2517.5 2812.7 2782.0 3085 3525 Shr. Equity ($mill) 4990
Common Stock 92,885,352 shs. 5.5% 4.3% 3.9% 5.0% 2.7% 3.6% 4.8% 6.8% 7.4% .5% 6.0% 6.0% Return on Total Cap’l 8.0%
as of 10/30/24 9.4% 6.6% 5.6% 7.8% 2.5% 4.3% 8.2% 9.3% 9.7% NMF 9.0% 9.0% Return on Shr. Equity 10.0%
MARKET CAP: $3.4 billion (Mid Cap) 9.4% 6.6% 5.6% 7.8% 2.5% 4.3% 8.2% 9.3% 9.7% NMF 9.0% 9.0% Retained to Com Eq 10.0%
CURRENT POSITION 2022 2023 9/30/24 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Nil Nil All Div’ds to Net Prof Nil
Cash Assets 97.7 100.1 82.1 BUSINESS: Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. operates inpatient sive treatment ctrs, 17%; residential treatment ctrs, 11%. Has
Receivables 322.4 361.5 383.9 psychiatric facilities, residential treatment centers, group homes, 23,500 emp. Offs./dirs. own 2.0% of common; T. Rowe Price, 9.3%;
Other 86.0 134.4 186.0 substance abuse facilities, and ctrs providing outpatient behavioral Vanguard, 9.6%; BlackRock, 8.9%; Wellington, 7.7%; FMR LLC,
Current Assets 506.1 596.0 652.0 healthcare svcs. throughout the U.S. and Puerto Rico. Sold U.K. 5.4% (4/24 proxy). Chmn: Reeve B. Waud. CEO: Christopher H.
Accts Payable F 104.7 156.1 201.4 ops., 1/21. Acute inpatient psychiatric facilities accounted for 51% Hunter. Inc.: DE. Addr.: 6100 Tower Circle, Ste. 1000, Franklin, TN
Debt Due 21.3 29.3 71.7
Other 262.3 700.4 336.4 of revenue in 2023; specialty treatment facilities, 21%; comprehen- 37067. Tel.: 615-861-6000. Internet: www.acadiahealthcare.com.
Current Liab. 388.3 885.8 609.5 Acadia Healthcare’s performance was lished September 1st found that the com-
ANNUAL RATES Past Past Est’d ’21-’23 mediocre in the September interim. pany was holding patients against their
of change (per sh) 10 Yrs. 5 Yrs. to ’27-’29 Revenues rose 8.7% year over year to will in ways that likely violated state laws.
Revenues 11.5% -2.5% 7.5%
‘‘Cash Flow’’ 15.0% - - 15.5% $815.6 million missing the consensus es- Acadia allegedly admitted patients who
Earnings 10.5% 4.0% 20.0% timate by $4 million. Reported share earn- did not require inpatient treatment and
Dividends -- -- Nil ings were $0.74, versus a year-earlier loss kept them ’’locked in.’’ These allegations
Book Value 15.5% 2.0% 9.5%
of $2.39, but were $0.14 below Wall covered the period of 2014-2017. Following
Cal- QUARTERLY REVENUES ($ mill.) Full Street’s expectations. Adjusted earnings the NYT’s publication, federal invest-
endar Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year declined year over year to $0.91, from igators found that Acadia’s practices did
2021 551.2 582.1 587.6 593.5 2314.4 $0.95, beating the consensus by a penny. not meet federal and state standards. The
2022 616.7 651.7 666.7 675.3 2610.4 Management revised its financial out- company agreed to pay $16.6 million to
2023 704.3 731.3 750.3 742.8 2928.7 look for 2024 again. It lowered its reve- resolve allegations that it violated the
2024 768.1 796.0 815.6 780.3 3160 nue outlook to $3.150 billion-$3.165 billion False Claims Act by billing federal health
2025 820 855 880 875 3430 from $3.180 billion-$3.225 billion and its insurance programs (Medicare, Medicaid,
Cal- EARNINGS PER SHARE A Full adjusted share earnings target to $3.35- and TRICARE) for unnecessary and non-
endar Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year $3.45, from $3.45-$3.65. The decline compliant services. It also agreed to pay
2021 .25 .66 .73 .95 2.59 reflects the closure of two facilities. $3.2 million to four states where its
2022 .67 .88 .78 .67 2.98 We normally view the company as an facilities are located. Acadia is also under
2023 .72 .79 d2.39 D .64 d.24 expansion story. Acadia added 15 beds investigation by the Veteran’s Administra-
2024 .83 .85 .74 .68 3.10 to existing facilities and five new compre- tion, Manhattan prosecutors, and a Mis-
2025 .85 .90 .85 .75 3.35 hensive treatment centers (CTC) and is on souri grand jury. The company settled
Cal- QUARTERLY DIVIDENDS PAID Full track to open 14 new CTC’s this year. It with the SEC for $19.85 million, but now
endar Mar.31 Jun.30 Sep.30 Dec.31 Year also has 21 joint-venture partnerships for faces class action suits by investors.
2020 22 hospitals, with 11 already in operation We would avoid this untimely stock.
2021 NO CASH DIVIDENDS and 11 more expected to open over time. The price-recovery potential looks attrac-
2022 BEING PAID However, the stock price is well below tive. But it may well be some time before
2023 its quotation in our August report. A it is much less subject to headline risk.
2024 New York Times (NYT) investigation pub- Phillip M. Seligman November 29, 2024
(A) Diluted earnings. GAAP as of 2022. Next (C) In millions. share would have been $0.81. Company’s Financial Strength B+
earnings report due late February. (D) ’23 Q3 GAAP EPS was d$2.39 due to one- Stock’s Price Stability 25
(B) Includes goodwill and intangibles in 2023, time $394.2 million legal settlements expense. Price Growth Persistence 40
$2.3 billion, $25.19/sh. Excluding that one-time expense, the loss per Earnings Predictability 25
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