Milton Friedman’s Permanent Income Hypothesis
Milton Friedman’s Permanent Income Hypothesis
The Permanent Income Hypothesis suggests that rich individuals have a lower Average Propensity to Consume (APC) compared to poor individuals. This is because wealthier individuals are more likely to base their consumption on a stable, higher permanent income and less on variations in transitory income. In contrast, poorer individuals might rely on transitory income changes more heavily, reflecting a higher short-term APC .
Within the framework of the Permanent Income Hypothesis, tastes and preferences (T) are factors that affect the consumption function through the average propensity to consume (k). These individual preferences determine how income is allocated to consumption versus savings, influencing the consumption path an individual follows even when income remains constant. This means that personal or cultural factors can alter consumption independently from income changes .
The Permanent Income Hypothesis suggests that permanent income is influenced by present and past transitory incomes. If there's an increase in transitory income compared to the previous period, permanent income is adjusted upwards (Yp < Yt for Yt > Yt-1), leading to a potential increase in consumption. Conversely, if transitory income has decreased, the permanent income estimate adjusts downwards (Yp > Yt for Yt < Yt-1), potentially reducing consumption. This dynamic reflects the smoothing behavior in consumption as individuals adjust their perceptions of future stable income based on recent transitory fluctuations .
The Permanent Income Hypothesis suggests that temporary fiscal measures like tax cuts or subsidies have limited effects on long-term consumption, as these are considered transitory income changes. If consumers perceive such measures as temporary, they are more likely to save rather than increase consumption, aligning with their permanent income expectations. This insight indicates that for fiscal policy aimed at boosting consumption effectively, measures need to influence perceptions of permanent income rather than only offering temporary relief .
According to the Permanent Income Hypothesis, permanent consumption (Cp) is a constant function of permanent income (Yp). This relationship is mathematically expressed as Cp = k * Yp, where k is the average propensity to consume, which is not directly a function of Yp. Instead, k is influenced by factors like the rate of interest, proportion of human to non-human wealth, tastes and preferences, and the variability of income .
The Permanent Income Hypothesis implies that in the short term, saving behavior is heavily influenced by transitory income fluctuations. Since individuals adjust their consumption based on anticipated permanent income, any additional transitory income is more likely to be saved rather than spent. However, in the long term, as consumers align their consumption with permanent income, saving behaviors stabilize, reflecting a consistent pattern with the steady flow of permanent income. Thus, temporary income spikes increase short-term savings predominantly, while long-term savings align with broader income predictions and consumption stability .
The Permanent Income Hypothesis mentions that the consumption function (and consequently the average propensity to consume, k) depends on variables such as the rate of interest (r) and the proportion of human to non-human wealth (H). Higher interest rates could lead to increased savings which influence permanent income estimation, while the composition of wealth affects the stability of consumption decisions as people with a higher proportion of non-human wealth might stabilize their consumption more robustly against transitory income changes .
The Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) differentiates permanent income as the average income expected to persist throughout a person's lifetime, while transitory income fluctuates and is temporary. A key assumption of the PIH is that there is no covariance between permanent income and transitory income, i.e., Cov(Yt, Yp) = 0. Furthermore, it assumes no covariance between permanent consumption and transitory consumption (Cov(Ct, Cp) = 0) and no covariance between transitory income and transitory consumption (Cov(Yt, Ct) = 0).
Some criticisms of the Permanent Income Hypothesis include the observation by Friend and Kravis that the Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) decreases as permanent income increases. Additionally, contrary to the hypothesis's assumptions, a relationship is observed between transitory income and transitory consumption in situations like lotteries. Moreover, econometric analyses suggest that the hypothesis may not hold up, as real-world data often show deviations from the predicted lack of covariance among various income and consumption types suggested by the PIH .
The Permanent Income Hypothesis posits that in the long run, the Average Propensity to Consume (APC) remains constant because it is a function of permanent income. In contrast, in the short run, the APC decreases as income increases. This effect is due to the short-run variations in transitory income which are smoothed out over time as individuals base their consumption on a stable estimate of permanent income, rather than temporary income fluctuations .