注意事项

 不确定的内容要先 admit，“to be frank” 先说不会再说自己的想法 不要绕弯子答非所问

 如何聊好 deal？


 News and Trend
 面试公司的基本情况
投行的股价： ；市值： ；PE：
投行的总部：
投行的核心价值观：
投行的 CEO：
投行的创始人：
投行的亚太区高管：
投行的股价/市值/PE：
 Macro
1. Interest rate
For investment banks
In general, interest rate rise indicates a contractionary monetary policy. Both firms and
individuals decrease their expectations for economic growth and profitability. In the market:
For equity deals, the valuation is down because of a higher discount rate, discouraging our
clients to equity financing options.
For LBOs and MnAs where debt is involved, the cost of debt also increases, which means
higher financing costs.
Thirdly, for DCM, I understand that our clients will have lower incentive to issue bond and
increase leverage due to higher borrowing costs.
In this way the numbers of deals and the deal sizes for us may be negatively affected.
For corporate
Higher financing and borrowing cost will lead to slower expansion and thus real economy
cools down
企业难融资：难上市也难贷款，可能采取比较保守的策略
For pe
Fund raising becomes harder as investors are more conservative and risk-averse
Portfolio exit harder due to lower interest from investor and unfavorable valuation
There will also be a target preference shift from high growth profile to more mature business
with stable cash flows and net income.
PE 难募资，项目难退出，选择更稳健的项目
2. Crude Oil Price and Capital Market
理论上是负相关：油价下跌对经济是利好消息，至少对石油进口国(例如中美)。
Conventional wisdom holds that an increase in oil prices will raise input costs for most
businesses and force consumers to spend more money on gasoline, thereby reducing the corporate
earnings. The stock price and oil price are supposed to be negatively correlated (see link).
正相关的情况：（1）全球需求疲软作为近期油价和股价同步下跌的理由有一定道理，因为总需求放缓不仅挫伤企业盈利水平，同时也导致原
油需求下降；（2）在市场有着较高的不确定性且投资者厌恶风险的情况下，如果投资者在那时从商品和股票市场撤退，那么剧烈的波动可能是解释股
价和油价走势趋同的另一个原因。
We are witnessing that stocks and oil prices to react in the same direction to common factors,
including changes in aggregate demand and in overall uncertainty and risk aversion (see link1 and
link2 and link3).
  Negative oil price
How did it happen in April 2020?
Negative oil prices are when the price of an oil futures contract falls below zero (see link).
Demand for oil needs to fall
Supply needs to exceed demand
Storage space needs to be running out
Impact: The historic drop quickly sent shock waves through the U.S. financial market. The
Dow plunged by over 1,200 points over the following two days and brokerage firms took
multimillion-dollar hits to cover customers’ losses (see link).
当石油价格不断下跌，石油本身变成一个价格信号，以衡量经济是否紧缩。
Oil price decline: It may indicate the sluggish aggregate demand of the global economy and
the fears of recession will transfer to financial market and create turbulence.
 Impacts on sectors
It will definitely be beneficial for industries involved in exploration (seismic survey, for
instance), drilling, production and servicing (see Investopedia and 一文解读油价上涨影响哪些行业), as well
as those who provide equipment and supplies for the energy industry.
Almost all downstream industries that rely on energy for production will be negatively
affected due to higher cost, such as paints, petrochemicals, textiles, aviation, tyres, and cement
(see link).
 The surge in oil price is a result from (1) the geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine,
as Russia is one of the top oil and gas exporters in the world, (2) increasing demand of energy due
to lifting of Covid restrictions (see link).
Jun 2022 - 120 USD per barrel
Currently - 70 USD per barrel, decline due to fears of recession and fall in demands thereafter
(see link)
新能源板块等非常关注能源价格以及能源供应链独立性。
3. How fed rate hike influenced differently between US and other countries
 Outflow of capital which leads to lower liquidity in the capital market
 Lower foreign exchange rate which may be good for export
 If other countries fix the exchange rate to dollars, they may increase interest rate as well
which leads to higher borrowing cost and required rate of return
4. Inflation and Capital Market
Mild inflation is generally good, because it’s a sign the economy is growing. Businesses and
asset price will go up nominally. Research shows that the results show the highest real returns
occur when inflation is 2% to 3% (see link).
如果是温和通胀的话，其实对于股市来说是一件好事，具有助推作用。因为温和通胀会刺激经济发展，从而推动股市上行。一方面，通胀就意
味着流通货币的增多，股市中的增量资金数额也会加大，需求也就加大，必然导致股价上涨。 通胀的另一个表现就是物价的上涨，这对上市公司的资
产来说起到了增值的作用，这也在另一方面推动了股价的上行（见链接）。
For stocks:
Higher inflation is usually looked on as a negative for stocks because it increases input costs
(materials, labor), and thus reduces expectations of earnings growth, putting downward pressure
on stock prices.
Also, people may expect government uses contractionary monetary policy which increases
the required long-run return on stocks.
如果任由通胀发展下去，对股市来说就形成了压力。因为上市公司的经营成本不断增加，可能会发生经营困难等情况，股价就会波动。若政府
采取紧缩政策来抑制通胀，股价下跌。
For bonds:
Put simply, the higher the current rate of inflation and the higher the (expected) future rates
of inflation, the higher the yields will rise across the yield curve, as investors will demand this
higher yield to compensate for inflation risk (see link).

5. Monetary Policy
(1) Monetary Policy Tools
放水：（1）降准（商业银行存款准备金率）；（2）降息（金融机构一年期存、贷款基准利率）；（3）逆回购
正回购为中国人民银行向一级交易商卖出有价证券，并约定在未来特定日期买回有价证券的交易行为，正回购为央行从市场减少流动性的操作，
正回购到期则为央行向市场增加流动性的操作；
逆回购为中国人民银行向一级交易商购买有价证券，并约定在未来特定日期将有价证券卖给一级交易商的交易行为，逆回购为央行向市场上投
放流动性的操作，逆回购到期则为央行从市场收回流动性的操作。
 When the policy rate is above (below) the neutral rate, the monetary policy is said to be
contractionary (expansionary).
(2) Contractionary monetary policy
(3) Expansionary monetary policy
 (4) Limitations (for back-up; less important than monetary policies rationale above)

流动性陷阱是凯恩斯提出的一种假说，指当一定时期的利率水平降低到不能再低时，人们就会产生利率上升而债券价格下降的预期，货币需求
弹性就会变得无限大，即无论增加多少货币，都会被人们储存起来。发生流动性陷阱时，再宽松的货币政策也无法改变市场利率，使得货币政策失效
（见链接）。
6. Fiscal Policy (for back-up; less important than monetary policies above)
(1) Fiscal policy tools
(2) Determine whether a fiscal policy is expansionary or contractionary.

(3) Interaction of monetary and fiscal policy

Higher borrowing can push up interest rates because markets are nervous about governments
ability to repay and they demand higher bond yields in return for perceived risk (see link)
7. Economic Indicator
 Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total market value of the goods and services
produced in a country within a certain time period.
 Unemployment rate is the percentage of people in the labor force who are unemployed.
 Consumer price index (CPI) is the best-known indicator of U.S. inflation.
 美国国债利率
10 年期国债利率可分解为短端利率预期（Expected Rates；预期短期利率的平均值）和期限溢价（Term Premium；供求状
况）。
短期利率预期：如果未来美债市场计入更多加息预期，将通过影响短端利率预期推高长端利率
期限溢价：经济基本面（通货膨胀）及流动性状况（期限越长利率风险越高）
在巨额财政刺激和疫苗接种推进的双重作用下，美国经济强劲重启，带来前期被压制的需求快速释放，但供应链运转不畅造成的供给不足，推
高通胀水平。与此同时，通胀分项中房租、工资等“非暂时性”通胀和通胀预期都有所上升，提示通胀风险。
我们认为 10 年期美债利率有望在 2021 年底冲击 1.9%，2022 年底上升至 2.1%附近，利率上行趋势在 2022 年下半年逐渐放
缓（见链接）——
从 2021 年至 2022 上半年，在加息预期、通胀风险等多重因素影响下，短端利率预期和期限溢价同时上升，长端利率可能上行相对较快。
进入 2022 年下半年，随着加息落实，通胀得到有效抑制，美国经济放缓，避险需求增加，期限溢价可能有所回落，部分抵消短端利率预期
抬升造成的长端利率上行压力。
 补充：大选政治动荡资金撤出导致美国国债利率上升
 Covid-19 impact
 On financial market (见链接)
From my point of view, Covid-19 indeed creates more volatility and uncertainty in many
industries. But I think one of the major impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on financial markets is
that it has reminded us of the vital importance of ESG investing and more sustainable business
trends such as digitalization and energy utilization. Resiliency and flexibility will be highly valued
by financial markets in faced with great uncertainty.
 On your desired career path? / role you apply for? / Financial Services Industry
For investment banking analyst, I believe the Covid-19 pandemic has taught me how
important adaptability and flexibility is to a quick-changing working environments, such as online
zoom meeting with clients, working remotely from home, video due diligence, etc.
(1) A paperless and contactless working condition under public health emergencies is of vital
importance. This will lead to acceleration of digital transformation and increased focus on cyber
security due to higher levels of remote access to data and core systems (see link).
(2) Organizational agility is important. We need to courage cross-functional collaboration in
order to respond fast to emergencies (see link).
 On real economy and industries
Although Covid-19 pandemic has indeed caused recession in real economy and tradition
industries such as restaurants and travelling. It also functions as an important driver for
digitalization in different industries.
In the consumer and retailing industry, e-commerce and the driverless delivery have become
a future trend, in place of physical stores and traditional delivery.
In the healthcare industry, the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated home healthcare business
such as e-pharmacies and online medical consultation.
In TMT industry, online education has enjoyed a significant higher growth compared to
offline education business.
I believe the trend of digitalization will go on and the pandemic functions as a catalyst.
 Fourteenth Five-Year Plan 十四五规划
Q1: Which industry has the great potential in China? Top-down, policy driven / What are the
biggest opportunities in the near future for our bank?（见链接及原文）
We are witnessing a sector shift from platform economy to hard technology. According to
Fourteenth Five-Year Plan, we can pay more attention to sectors such as advanced manufacturing,
new energy and new infrastructure. 从互联网行业到硬科技的转变。未来也应该更多地寻找政策支持的板块。
Q2: Do you have a personal trading portfolio and what’s your trading strategy?
I think I will combine both active and passive strategy.
For the passive part, given currently the market is still very volatile faced with great
uncertainty, I think I will use ETF instead of individual stocks or bonds to avoid huge risks.
For the active part, I will choose some industries which is highly supported and encouraged
by policies. By reading the Fourteenth Five-year Plan, I understand that advanced manufacturing
and new energy may be promising. So maybe I will choose a series of ETF in these related fields
to diversify my portfolio.
 Advanced manufacturing
十四五规划着重强调了深入智能制造 Advanced Manufacturing，首次提出产业链供应链 Independent supply
chain。
推动集成电路 chips、航空航天 aviation、船舶与海洋工程装备、机器人 robots、先进轨道交通装备、先进电力装备、工程机械、
高端数控机床、医药及医疗设备 medical equipment 等产业创新发展。
十四五规划首次就产业链供应链优化进行了单独讨论，强调引导产业链关键环节留在国内，补短板锻长板，产业链供应链自主可控、安全高效。
 AIGC
产业链：AIGC 产业由上游的数据服务产业（Infrastructure: computing and data resources）、中游的算法模型产业
（Technology: modelling）和下游的应用拓展产业（Application）三部分。
趋势：通用大模型借助插件构建起了直接面向终端用户的细分场景，这势必会冲击到一部分原来做纯应用层的创业公司。
主要关注的三类公司：
一是像 OpenAI 一样专注于大模型的公司；
二是既做大模型，又做直接应用垂直一体化的公司，如 Midjourney；
三是调用大模型 API 的公司，基于大模型重点开发具体场景的 AI 应用公司，如 Jasper
观点：如果应用的场景只需要用到一个高中生的知识量，插件很容易替代专门的应用，比如说做一个 PPT，写一个策划案，或者是规划一个
旅游路线。但如果是做 to G、to B 或者是针对垂直行业里的 C 端用户，这些公司很难被插件替代。FA 黄历认为，这可能是现在真正的投融资
机会，此类水下项目仅他知道的有十几家。做农业、医疗、教育等场景需要精准的垂类知识，这需要专业的创业公司基于大模型，投喂行业知识，训
练形成场景化、定制化、个性化的小模型，并提供最终的产品。
见第一批投 AIGC 的 VC 开始后悔了
以明星项目 Jasper 为例，这是一家基于 GPT-3 的 API 构建应用的 SaaS 企业，它能帮助企业和个人用户撰写营销文案 。
ChatGPT 问世之前，Jasper 一度是创投圈的宠儿。去年 10 月，Jasper 获得 1.25 亿美元 A 轮融资，估值达到 15 亿美元，过去一年
的总收入更是达到 7500 万美元。
但现在，这只独角兽的未来陷入阴霾之中。最近投研机构“海外独角兽”的一篇文章给出了消极的结论，认为 Jasper 在早期荒蛮的 GPT
生态中抓住了机会，但在 AIGC 应用涌现的今天，它将不再是决定航向的领航人。
一些投资者认为 Jasper 没有自己的特有模型，并不存在技术壁垒；ChatGPT 的易用性和低收费将给 Jasper 的定价带来极大压力；
Notion、Office 和 Hubspot 对于 AIGC 的积极拥抱将很可能让让 Jasper 的市占率急速下滑，关闭了建立场景和产品壁垒的时间窗
口。
 The case of ChatGPT and GPT-4 has shown the great potential how generative AI can
facilitate us to conduct paperwork such as information collection, drafting a memo, an agenda or
deck. This will definitely improve our efficiency and give us more time to focus on client-facing
work.
I think in considerations of risks, there are still a long way to go. Currently the technology
demonstrates some features that are still not favorable, such as information bias, data privacy
concern and lack of transparency (see link).
 New Energy
碳中和概念将引领能源革命并带动经济转型以清洁能源为主导的能源革命，不仅直接推动 上游发电（风力、光伏）及原材料（锂、
镍）Upstream: power generation (wind, photovoltaic) and raw materials (lithium and nickel) 的发展，
也将为新能源电池储能、特高压输电 Midstream: battery storage, power transmission 等中间环节创造巨大市场空间，并将
影响下游能源消费，如新能源汽车及充电桩、消费电子 Downstream: new energy vehicle, charging pile, etc.
低碳可持续发展。在中国碳达峰、碳中和的发展路径下以及对数字经济的核心定位下， 房地产企业可以进行数字化转型，比如智慧社区的数字
化运营 Smart community、绿色建筑的房屋能源监控 Energy monitoring 及智能家居 Smart furniture 等等都是未来
房地产行业的价值产出（见链接）
 当下，仅动力电池领域就存在着锂离子、钠离子电池、固态电池和氢燃料电池，甚至更细分的三元、磷酸铁锂、磷酸锰铁锂等等正极材料的分
化，储能、光伏等领域还有更多各自的技术路线之争。然而戏剧化的是，可控核聚变若在某日实现商业化，前述的一切“新能源”帝国都将崩塌。
“真正的考验在于对趋势、时机和人的判断”，孙业林告诉「暗涌 Waves」，产业投资许多时候都在试着解答“新旧两种技术谁能在什么
时候赢”的问题，而结论很难通过客户基础、财务数据等等指标判断出来。“最惨的事莫过于，诺基亚最风光的时候你投了 10 亿美元，结果第二年
苹果出来了。”
见研究了 1000 起产业投资，我们发现产业资本是个伪命题
 New Infrastructure
关注新基建领域：主要包括 5G 基站建设 5G、特高压、城际高速铁路和城市轨道交通、新能源汽车充电桩、大数据中心 IDC、人工智
能、工业互联网 IOT 七大领域，涉及诸多产业链，是以新发展为理念，以技术创新为驱动，以信息网络为基础，面向高质量发展需要，提供数字转
型、智能升级、融合创新等服务的基础设施体系。
 Consumer
首次单独成节，注重数字消费、服务型消费（见链接及原文）。
发展信息消费、数字消费、绿色消费，鼓励定制、体验、智能、时尚消费等新模式新业态发展。发展服务消费，放宽服务消费领域市场准入，
推动教育培训、医疗健康、养老托育、文旅体育 New Economy Business which focuses on cultural tourism 等消费
提质扩容，加快线上线下融合发展。
 有投资价值的赛道
横向机会：一个发达国家的某个行业好，那么新兴国家也有类似机会
e.g. 无糖茶饮的渗透率在中国个位数 vs 日本 80%，未来有进一步教育消费者的空间
纵向机会：一个行业好，那么其供应链上的公司也有带动关系
e.g. 无糖气泡水行业的兴起带动上游代糖行业（保龄宝、三元生物）以及智能冰柜、货柜（如海荣冷链）等一同增长
e.g. 新能源汽车带动行业上游发展，如电池等
 News
Regulations
Variation: How international investment banks better position themselves in APAC.
 Last month, Chinese authority is urging state-owned firms to phase out the Big 4 accounting
firms (see bloomberg).
Therefore, the takeaways on investment banking have two sides:
Firstly, I think it still signals tension relationship between US and China in sensitive fields
such as auditing, data security and technology, which may hurt our US IPO and cross-border
M&A activities to some extent.
However, the positive side is that, by discouraging firms from listing in US, the Asian local
markets may get further boosted. As XXX (the interview Company) bankers, I believe we can
leverage our Asian expertise and provide more local solutions to our clients where the policy
environment is more encouraging and stable.
We are now faced with great uncertainty both domestically and internationally.
For equity financing:
Firstly, US-listed Chinese firms are subject to delisting risk when PCAOB cannot secure
complete access to investigate their auditing
For TMT industry, we know that companies with users more than 1 million needs to get CAC
approval over data security before seeking foreign listing on a foreign exchange
For debt financing:
For real estate industry, the three red lines are restricting the leverage ratio companies can
take, which negatively affect the DCM and other fixed income business for us.
For M&A:
The anti-trust regulation is restricting the activities domestically. For cross-border M&As we
are also faced with high uncertainty of censorship especially in sensitive area such as technology
and information services.
 What it means for the role I am applying for?
As investment banking analyst, my biggest takeaway is that we need to build sensitivity
towards regulatory changes in order to better guide our clients through all the big uncertainty.
作为投行我们需要建立政策的敏感性，以更好帮助我们的客户更好地迎接不确定性。
How to foresee these challenges and guide our clients to quickly respond to the new policies
is one of the biggest priorities. Always be aware of regulatory moves in order for ongoing deal
executions and think about what creates the biggest value for our clients.
Platform Economy
We are witnessing the regulation in the platform economy becoming tighter in terms of
cybersecurity and anti-trust.
目前，平台经济的政策日趋收紧：分别从反垄断及数据安全两个层面限制企业行为。
【反垄断】
In October, the top Internet company Meituan was fined about 3 billion yuan, for its
monopolistic conduct of forcing its merchants to sign exclusive cooperation at the expense of
other potential development opportunities (see link), following Ali which was also fined for this
kind of “choosing us or not” misconduct.
《平
》对
南
指
断
垄
反
域
领
济
经
台“二选一”、“大数据杀熟”等垄断行为进行规制（见 Reuters 及市场监管总局）。
台
平
10 月，继阿里等互联网巨头之后，市场监管总局对美团外卖“二选一”垄断作出行政处罚，责令美团停止违法行为，全额退还独家合作保证
金 12.89 亿元，并处以其 2020 年中国境内销售额 1147.48 亿元 3 %的罚款，计 34.42 亿元。
The government is launching anti-trust regulation to guide big platforms to open their
platform and work together. Top players are prohibited from a range of behavior including
  Forcing merchants to sign exclusive contracts
 Price manipulation by using data and algorithms
7 月 10 日，国家市场监督管理总局发文表示，依法禁止虎牙公司与斗鱼国际控股有限公司合并（见链接）。
【网络安全】
In January 2022, the Cyber Security Review Measures were formally issued in China and
will be implemented in February. For national security reasons, it requires any business operator
that holds personal information of more than one million users to receive cybersecurity review
when seeking foreign listing.
From my point of view, the impacts on investment banking have two sides:
Firstly, the challenge is that this will threaten a traditional line of business in investment
banks to conduct US IPOs for Chinese companies, and add concerns of a decoupling between
China and US in sensitive areas like technology, which may hurt the merger and acquisition
activities in relevant fields.
Secondly, the opportunity still exists for us because by discouraging firms from listing
abroad, the mainland and HK financial markets may get further developed. Also, we are
witnessing a sector shift from internet company to hard technology. So we can focus more on
pitching clients in advanced manufacturing, new energy, etc.
As investment banking candidates, we need to build our own regulation sensitivity in order to
better guide our clients through the big uncertainty in the future. This news reminds me to always
be aware of regulatory changes during deal executions and think about what creates the most
value for our clients and our future.
2022 年 1 月，修订后的《网络安全审查办法》（“新《审查办法》”）正式出台，并于 2 月正式实施（见链接）。其要求掌握超过 100
万用户个人信息的运营者赴国外上市，必须向网络安全审查办公室申报网络安全审查。
 Implications
 In the short-term, it may create negative impact on share price, operation efficiency and
barriers for data collection and usage. But I think it won’t affect their market status.
短期有阵痛，但并不会影响到巨头的市场地位。
 In the long term, it can protect fair competition and healthy development in the market.
长期利于市场有序竞争、行业健康发展。
 What’s driving markets?
 Opportunities (HSBC as an example)
(1) Digitalization
Digitalization and business intelligence will help us to better collect and analyze our clients’
preference no matter for our commercial business or institutional business, and help us to provide
more customized services.
Also, paperless practice is also in line with HSBC’s strategy to become a net zero bank.
(2) Sustainability / ESG
As more and more institutional investors are looking for social impact investing
opportunities, we HSBC should definitely grab the fast-growing opportunity in APAC area to
provide tailor-made solutions and to our clients, such as standard design, ratings, due diligence,
corporate strategy and risk management (see link).
Green loans: meant for sustainable, environmentally friendly purposes, such as reducing CO2
emissions, or purposes contributing to the green transition in society such as developing new
environmentally friendly technology (see link).
  Risks / Challenges
On a global level, the biggest challenge is geopolitical conflict between US and China and
also the interest rate hike against inflation, which is creating the recession of global economy and
turbulence in the capital market and financial system
(1) Interest rate hike
Inflation: Supply chain crisis especially in the energy field due to the Russia and Ukraine War
is affecting factories, production and life cost around the world
US Fed Funds Rate moves from near zero to 16-year high since Sep 2007 (target range
increase by 25bps to 5%-5.25% in its May meeting, see link).
China cash rate (Policy Rate: Month End: China: Rediscount Rate) was set at 2.75% pa in
Feb 2023, compared with 2.75% pa in the previous Jan 2023 (see link).
The ECB’s rate for lending to banks was raised to 3.5%, and the rate it pays on deposits it
takes from banks was lifted to 3% (50 basis points increase, see link).

The crackdown of SVB is a good example showing how fragile banking system is in front of
interest rate risk and how systematic risk within the financial sector can be transferred from
banking system to venture capital market.
On a local level of APAC, I think the financial market is driven by several risk factors as
well: uncertainty of domestic and cross-border regulation as well as low demand of consumption
shown in first two months economy data.
(2) Economic Growth
Reserve rate down to 7.6% for financial institutions ( 金 融 机 构 加 权 平 均 存 款 准 备 金 率 ， see link).
Although the majority has a 5% forecast of China GDP growth this year, the declining CPI and
PPI and high unemployment rate still indicates a sluggish demand, bring pressure to 2C sector
such as automotives (see 4 月数据出炉，还挺实事求是！).
There is a mild inflation rate in terms of CPI, compared to G20 country average of 8% in the
middle of this year, as we have less reliance on oil and gas per capita with a strong domestic labor
supply (see link, WSJ, rfi). Therefore, we can still maintain an easy monetary policy next 6-12
months (see 链接).
 (3) Geopolitical Conflict: Ongoing tension between US and China in sensitive fields such
as technology (by limiting US investment) and auditing policies (see link)
(4) Domestic Regulation: Although there are some stabilizing signals, we are still faced
with supervision volatility in major sectors such as real estate, platform economy and
even financial industry itself 政策监管面有一定松动，如滴滴重新上架、针对优质内房的扶持政策如金融 16 条、融资
三箭齐发及内保外贷，但复苏依旧不稳
在新基建、新能源、民营经济重获信心、平台经济完成整改进入常态化监管重新出发、房地产软着陆等带动下，中国经济有望重新引领全球
（高盛预测中国经济 2023 增速 5.2%，国家定的目标 GDP 增长 5%），但受全球经济以及国内人口结构的影响，消费、出口等方面在中长
期仍存在严峻挑战（见梅花创投吴世春：对 2023 年经济的 14 条判断）
Looking forward, I would see this more as great opportunities to further boost our M&A
business as the price of gold goes up and more primary market shareholders see M&A as
alternative exit option.
 Stock Market
The stock market is very turbulent in the past one year with a sharp decrease in IPO deal
number, deal size and total money raised.
Hang Seng Index 20,000 with 10% increase in the last 6 months.
SSE Composite Index 3,300 with 5% increase in the last 6 months.
 S&P 500 4,100 with 5% increase in the last 6 months.
 PE Market
1. Valuation Shift: Under current market conditions, investors’ interest has been shifting
from growth-oriented, future-value sectors to those with a focus on strength of earnings
and pricing power. 关注的不是企业的未来成长，而是目前有没有利润率
2. Strategy Shift: More and more funds are looking at buyout opportunities and post-
investment management is gaining more importance. 对美元基金的行业覆盖深度、投后管理能力提出了更
高的要求
 M&A Market
Despite geopolitical and financial uncertainty (see link), APAC M&A activity in H1 2022 has
been robust (650 deals; a total value of 400 billion USD), which is only 14% drop by value
compared to 2021 but up 85% compared to 2020. It remains in line with the average of from 2015
to 2019. The main trends are that:
(1) The share of domestic deals has increased as a result of geopolitical tensions e.g. 德国阻止中
国投资者收购两家芯片制造商（见链接），中国企业在对欧投资中将面临反外国补贴、反垄断和外商直接投资审查三重审查监管机制
（见易界）
(2) Technology and industrials companies are the most heated sectors as a response to the
trend of digitalization and renewable energy
Drivers
Despite the fragile global economy, increased regulatory intervention and geopolitical
challenges, there is increasing pressure for companies to transform their business and for financial
investors to exit through M&A.
 Will IB be replaced by AI?
I think it may be partially replaced. For the fundamental work such as data collection, and
slides formatting, AI and high-tech may be used to improve our efficiency.
However, I believe the core value of IB is the close communication between bankers and its
clients. By understanding the clients’ long-term need, we as humans are able to provide the best
solutions, which I believe the machine cannot do in the near future.
 Will HK be replaced? (For interviewing with hk offices, stay positive!)
Although it is the fact that in the since 2018, there are indeed policies which encourages the
enterprises to get listed on Mainland stock exchange such as registration reform.
Given the reopening, my understanding is that in the mid-term, the financial center will still
be Hong Kong in terms of free capital flow and diversified financial solutions such as SPAC and
18C. Different stock exchange may have differentiation in financing solutions, and I believe the
innovation will help Hong Kong stay competitive.
 SPAC
SPAC is a publicly listed acquisition vehicle whereby a sponsor team raises a blind pool of
cash to acquire an operating company. Two stages: SPAC and de-SPAC
Q: 你对 SPAC 怎么看？你觉得在香港引入 SPAC 有必要性吗？
From the perspective of HKEX, I think it is very important to make innovations in terms of
financing solutions to keep attracting funds and investors. However, I understand currently SPAC
in HK has a very high requirement in terms of investor as well as financial requirements, which
may lead to a low liquidity.
Advantages:
 No financial update pressure after hearing and can wait until a good market timing （hearing 后
无限延长报告期，等到市场好了再发，不像一个实体的公司，可能因为担心业绩下滑就错过上市时间点了，SPAC 角度来说，它不愁业绩下滑，所
以他们可以等）
Disadvantages:
High financial requirements same to IPO for de-SPAC（美国和新加坡是因为 De-SPAC 标的财务指标达不到
IPO 要求，才可以通过 SPAC 等其他方式上市。但是港交所的规定比较严格，首先企业需要达到 HK IPO 三套盈利测试标准，才能做
SPAC）
Low liquidity due to limited availability to only institutional investors and high-net-worth
individuals, without retail investors（香港只允许机构投资人和高净值客户在 IPO 阶段来认购，但美国是允许散户认购的，因此
进一步增加了香港当前做 SPAC marketing 的难度）

 Stock Market
【注意：上市规则及监管随时可能有调整，请 check 最新新闻和条例，特别是自己实习做过的项目对应的板块】
 Rationale 不同资本市场上市考虑因素
1.上市条件及板块定位 Listing Rules
2.市场流动性 Liquidity
3.估值 Valuation
4.政策风险 Regulatory risk
发行窗口：估值（市场情绪）、监管（交易所聆讯）、财务（业绩考虑）
 H share vs A share
(1) Lower requirements in terms of due diligence and shortened process 香港主板上市比国内 A 股上市
手续简便、尽调要求低、周期短。在香港主板上市时间则一般在 9 到 12 个月左右的时间
A shares: Regulation oriented, focusing more on compliance such as financial verification
H shares: Value seeking, focusing more on investment highlight, pricing and selling
(2) Supporting policies for different company needs: for H share we have 18A for biotech
 companies and companies with weighted voting rights and VIE structure. For A share better
policy environment for tech companies on STAR board 港股针对生物科技公司、同股不同权架构的科技创新型企
业、VIE 架构企业等在门槛上有放宽（见链接），A 股各个不同定位的板块，相比港股市场在硬科技公司方面的包容度和政策支持度更好
(3) Shareholder exit for dollar funds 美元基金倾向于香港市场，因退出便利及较少限制
财务核查投行任务更小（无资金流水核查、无穿行测试、截止性测试、期后回款测试，定量内容较少），基于审计师报告，更侧重投资亮点挖掘，
以发行为重点
撰写招股书 A-1 的 2 部分
行业概览只写大纲，内容由顾问撰写；strength & strategy；review 全部
财务核查（与招股书同步进行，招股书基于财务核查）
Third party DD 走访客户供应商（问卷形式）+银行询证函+FDD+税务工商调档
非正式路演 Non-deal Roadshow：投行与投资者预沟通
Analyst Presentation 大会：研究员对投资者介绍（之后会出价格区间指引）
Roadshow 管理层路演
JBR：最低角色，联席簿记管理人；JGC：更高一层，全球协调人；Sponsor：最高一层，保荐人
 HK Main Board vs GEM Board
1. Main board (see link)
Larger size companies and three different types of financial tests.
 盈利测试 Profit Test
（a）具备不少于 3 个会计年度的营业记录，而在该段期间，新申请人最近一年的股东应佔盈利不得低于 2,000 万港元，及其前两年累计
的股东应佔盈利亦不得低于 3,000 万港元。上述盈利应扣除日常业务以外的业务所产生的收入或亏损；
（b）至少前 3 个会计年度的管理层维持不变；及
（c）至少经审计的最近一个会计年度的拥有权和控制权维持不变。
 市值╱收入╱现金流量测试 Market Cap / Revenue / Cash Flow Test
（a）具备不少于 3 个会计年度的营业记录；
（b）至少前 3 个会计年度的管理层维持不变；
（c）至少经审计的最近一个会计年度的拥有权和控制权维持不变；
（d）上市时市值至少为 20 亿港元（2 billion HKD）；
（e）经审计的最近一个会计年度的收入至少为 5 亿港元；及
（f）新申请人或其集团拟上市业务于前 3 个会计年度的现金流入合计至少为 1 亿港元。
 市值╱收入测试 Market Cap / Revenue Test
（a）具备不少于 3 个会计年度的营业记录；
（b）至少前 3 个会计年度的管理层维持不变；
（c）至少经审计的最近一个会计年度的拥有权和控制权维持不变；
（d）上市时市值至少为 40 亿港元（4 billion HKD）；及
（e）经审计的最近一个会计年度的收入至少为 5 亿港元。
2. GEM Board (see link)
Small and median size companies with no profitability requirements.
 财务指标（Cash Flow and Market Cap）
（a）申请上市的新申请人或其集团此等在刊发上市文件前两个财政年度从经营业务所得的淨现金流入总额必须最少达 3,000 万港元；
（b）上市时市值至少达到 1.5 亿港元（150 million HKD）；
（c）基于本交易所信纳的理由，有可能接纳准新申请人不足两个财政年度的营业纪录期，亦有可能豁免遵守或更改，即使本交易所接纳不足
两个财政年度的营业纪录，申请人仍须在该较短的营业纪录期内符合 3,000 万港元的现金流量规定。
 其他指标
（a）申请人在刊发上市文件前的完整财政年度及至上市日期为止的整段期间，其拥有权及控制权以及必须维持不变；及
 （b）申请人在刊发上市文件前两个完整财政年度及至上市日期为止的整段期间，其管理层必须大致维持不变；
（d）新申请人会计师报告须涵盖的期间为紧接上市文件刊发前两个财政年度；
（e）新申请人，其申报会计师最近期申报的财政期间，不得早于上市文件刊发日期前六个月结束；
（f）上市时，公众持股量不低于市值港币 4,500 万元，占公司已发行股本总额至少 25%；
（g）至少 3 名独立非执行董事，所委任的独立非执行董事必须至少占董事会成员人数的三分之一。
Chapter 18A
Chapter 18A set out additional listing conditions for pre-revenue biotech companies to
support their R&D activities. They are not required to go through traditional test of profit, revenue
or cash flow. Instead, they need to have a market cap of at least 1.5 billion HKD and prove their
eligibility as a promising bio-tech company such as patent and pipeline (see link and HKEX).
香港联合交易所（“联交所”）于 2018 《》 “《》 ”），新增了第 18A 章“生物科技公司”，并于 2018 年和 2020 年 分
别
发
布
了
《有关
生
物
科
技
公
司
是
否
适
合
上
市
的
指
引
信
（GL92-
18）》（“指引信 GL92-18”《 (GL107-20)》（“指引信 GL107-20”），对生物科技公司是否适合上市以及上市文件的披露予以
进一步规定。
1.证明其合资格及适合以生物科技公司的身份上市
2.上市时的市值至少达 15 亿港元
3.上市前已由大致相同的管理层经营现有的业务至少两个会计年度
4.确保申请人有充足的营运资金（包括计入新申请人首次上市的所得款项），足可应付集团由上市文件刊发日期起至少十二个月所需开支的至
少 125%
对于申请人是否“合资格及适合以生物科技公司的身份上市”，指引信 GL92-18 明确申请人需满足以下特点：
1.生物科技公司必须至少有一项核心产品（作为生物科技公司根据第 18A 章申请上市基础的受规管产品）已通过概念阶段
2.主要专注于研发以开发核心产品
3.上市前最少十二个月已从事核心产品的研发
4.上市集资主要作研发用途，以将核心产品推出市场
5.必须拥有与其核心产品有关的已注册专利、专利申请及/或知识产权
6.如申请人从事医药（小分子药物）产品或生物产品研发，须证明其拥有多项潜在产品
7.在建议上市日期的至少六个月前已获至少一名资深投资者提供相当数额的第三方投资（不只是象征式投资）且至进行首次公开招股时仍未撤
回投资
Chapter 18C
Mainly for hard-tech pre-profit companies in industries such as AI, semiconductor and SaaS
(see link).
Two different criteria for companies with commercialization and before commercialization:
(1) Market Cap / Revenue Test for companies with commercialization
(2) Market Cap Test for companies before commercialization
A 股各板及各层对比
 定位总结
The Science and Technology Innovation Board emphasizes the nature of science and
technology innovation, and mainly serves hard technology enterprises;
The Growth Enterprise Board mainly serves growth and innovative enterprises, and also
enterprises that combine traditional industries with new technologies, formats and models;
The target of Beijing Stock Exchange is innovative, entrepreneurial, and growth SMEs,
which is more inclusive. The companies they serve may be at an earlier stage, may be smaller in
scale.
主板大盘蓝筹特色
科创板主要服务符合国家战略、突破关键核心技术、市场认可度高的科技创新企业；
 创业板则主要服务成长型创新创业企业，聚焦支持“传统产业与新技术、新产业、新业态、新模式深度融合”；
北交所则聚焦创新型中小企业，服务对象“更早、更小、更新”。包容性会更高。
通过构建多层次市场结构，充分体现市场的包容性和服务的精准性（见链接）。
 北京证券交易所
（见《》）
（1）市场定位
北京证券交易所将坚持服务创新型中小企业。
The Beijing Stock Exchange is established for serving innovative SMEs.
设立北交所是深化多层次资本市场改革的重要战略布局。北交所则聚焦创新型中小企业，服务对象“更早、更小、更新”。构建多层次资本市
场，将充分体现市场的包容性和服务的精准性，有力地提升我国资本市场服务中小企业的功能（见链接）。
中小企业融资难呼唤深化多层次资本市场改革。中小企业的发展对我国经济发展有重要推动作用，但目前中小企业“融资难、融资贵”仍未得
到根本解决。间接融资仍需面对银行等金融机构存在资产抵押、风险偏好、资金风控等方面权衡，商业银行扩大对中小企业的融资支持依然存在一些
制约。直接融资方面，科创板和创业板注册制的推出，显著地提升了资本市场支持中小企业融资的能力，但在对支持更小、更新的中小企业方面仍有
提升的空间。
（2）制度安排
1）构建契合创新型中小企业特点的涵盖发行上市、交易、退市、持续监管、投资者适当性管理等基础制度安排；
2）畅通在多层次资本市场之间的纽带作用，形成相互补充、相互促进的中小企业直接融资成长路径；
3）培育一批专精特新中小企业，形成创新创业热情高涨、合格投资者踊跃参与、中介机构归位尽责的良性市场生态。
在上市规则方面，北交所的上市条件及上市市值及财务指标要求均完全平移新三板精选层条件，持续督导、退市机制、自律监管和违规处理有
调整，信息披露要求细化，主体责任更清晰，退市机制更具体 ；在交易规则方面，北交所仅做了发布主体、体例等适应性调整，内容较新三板精选层
没有变化（见《》）。
 北京证券交易所上市公司由创新层公司产生，维持新三板基础层、创新层与北京证券交易所的市场结构，并同步试点证券发行注册制。
The companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange come from companies of Innovative
Market Tier, there will be the structure of the NEEQ Basic Market Tier, Innovative Market Tier
and Beijing Stock Exchange, piloting registration system rather than verification system.
 （3）影响与意义
一：中小企业得到更强关注：股票交易、融资能力获得显著提升。
SME has received stronger attention: Trading volume and financing capability has been
significantly improved.
二：丰富企业上市路径：无论是在北京证券交易所上市，还是后续转板去科创板、创业板上市路径都已经十分顺畅。
Listing paths has been greatly enriched: Beijing Stock Exchange; transfer to the Science
and Technology Innovation Board or Growth Enterprise Board.
此前因为转板制度的成熟，精选层对于新三板挂牌公司而言更像一个‘旅店’，大家都是要在精选层磨练内功，徐图转板实现在科创板或者创业
板上市的。市场担心的也是优质企业纷纷转板上市，精选层只发挥了培育作用，却没能留住企业、盘活市场。现在北京证券交易所的出现改变了这种
情况。
三：差异化监管以降低中小企业发展成本：北京证券交易所在上市公司公司治理等方面，也与沪深交易所的上市公司监管存在一定差异—
—
 北京证券交易所上市公司的现金分红比例不作指引，鼓励公司根据自身实际“量力而为”（对比上交所分红指引）；
 对于股权激励，允许在充分披露并履行相应程序的前提下，合理设置低于股票市价的期权行权价格，以增强激励功效（见 《“尽快上
市”，北京证券交易所搅动 IPO 》）。
Differentiated supervision compared to main board to reduce the development cost of
small and medium-sized enterprises:
 Cash dividends for listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange is not mandatory;
 With full disclosure and fulfillment of the corresponding procedures, option exercise
prices can be set reasonably lower than market price to enhance the incentive effect.
（4）专精特新
工信部 2018 年 11 月发布《关于开展专精特新“小巨人”企业培育工作的通知》至今，共三批接近 5000 家中小企业被选入“专精特
新”企业名单。
专业化：产品或服务专注于细分市场、生产工艺的专业性、技术的专有性
精细化：产品质量的精良性、工艺技术的精深性和企业的精细化管理
新颖化：创新能力强，产品具有较高技术含量，较高的附加值和显著的经济、社会效益
特色化：产品或服务采用独特的工艺、技术、配方研制生产（见《》）
300 家在专精特新名单的 A 股上市公司主要集中在制造业的中小企业。从行业分布看，“专精特新”名单中的上市公司分布数量最多的行业
是机械（94 家）、基础化工（48 家）和医药生物（35 家），其中这三个行业的公司市值占所有公司的比重为 60%。从市值分布看，“专精特
新”上市公司中 75%的公司市值小于 100 亿元，其中仅 3 家公司已成长壮大至 500 亿元市值以上。从成立和上市年份看，“专精特新”上市公
司大多成立于劳动人口红利最好的 1998-2007 年的十年间，但最终 80%的公司是 2015 年之后上市的，其中 2020 年以来上市的公司达
134 家，显示 IPO 可能对于名单中的优质公司有所倾斜。（见《“”，明日的“隐形冠军”》 》 ）
（5）投资者门槛仍存调整空间
2019 年底，新三板投资者适当性门槛已经过一轮修订。修订后，投资者参与精选层股票发行和交易需满足“申请权限开通前 10 个交易日，
本人名下证券账户和资金账户内的资产日均人民币 100 万元以上”的硬性条件，投资创新层和基础层则分别需要满足人民币 150 万和 200 万以
上的门槛。
虽然从证监会表述来看，将保持从精选层平移而来的北京证券交易所投资者适当性管理制度，与上市企业风险相匹配。但在业内人士看来，未
来北京证券交易所的投资门槛仍有下调的可能。
 新三板（New Third Board）
 不同分层的定位
The Basic Market Tier implements bottom-line supervision:
i. requires meeting basic listing conditions, with high risk tolerance for small and
medium-sized enterprises and high investor standards accordingly
ii. provides basic financing transaction functions
基础层定位于企业规范，要求满足基本挂牌条件，增强对中小企业的风险包容性，相应设置较高的投资者标准，匹配基本融资交易功能 ，
深化投融资对接服务，实行底线监管；
The Innovative Market Tier implements moderate-intensity supervision:
i. requires a middle public level of publicization and good financial status, with
moderate investor standards
ii. provides good efficiency financing transaction functions
创新层定位于企业培育，要求具备一定的公众化水平和较好的财务状况，投资者标准适中，匹配较高效率的融资交易功能，实行中等强
度监管；
The Select Market Tier implements strict supervision:
i. requires public offerings to achieve a high public level
ii. requires outstanding business performance with relatively low investor standards
iii. provides highly-efficient financing transaction systems
精选层定位于企业升级，要求通过公开发行达到较高的公众化水平，经营业绩较为突出，投资者标准相对较低，匹配高效率的融资交易
制度，对标上市公司严格监管（见链接）。
区别举例：
Transaction system: 基础层、创新层采用的是集合竞价交易方式，基础层每一个小时撮合一次，创新层每 10 分钟撮合一
次，而精选层采用连续竞价的方式进行交易（见链接）
Supervision: 精《挂
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 市值与财务指标
（1） 《》

（2） 《》链接）
 （3） 《》链接）

 转板上市条件

与科创板/创业板首发上市条件保持总体一致，转板公司需要符合科创板/创业板定位及首发条件、符合《科创板/创业板股票上市规则》规定的
上市标准等。此外，转板公司应当在新三板精选层连续挂牌一年以上，并满足股东人数不低于 1000 人、董事会审议转板上市相关事宜决议公告日
前六十个交易日内累计成交量不低于 1000 万股等条件。
《 12 个月！》，《首单新三板转板上市启动，转板上市到底是什么？》及《》
 科创板（STAR Board）
见《》及链接
科创板的上市条件包括“行业要求+科创属性+市值与财务指标”。
2021 年 4 月 16 日，上海证券交易所再次提高了科创板的上市要求，科创板上市标准 -第 2 版（见链接 1 及链接 2）相应更新至第 3
版。
 行业要求

 科创属性
 市值与财务指标

对比创业板：创业板第二套标准和科创板第一套标准中的后半部分完全相同，是多数企业选择的上市标准。创业板的第三套标准相较于科创板
的第四套标准而言，对预计市值的要求更高。创业板允许未盈利企业上市，但未对尚未产生收入的企业开放（见链接）。
 （见科创板专题——企业科创板上市财务基本要求）
 创业板（Growth Enterprise Market, GEM）
 注册制影响

 行业要求：负面清单制
见《》
目标：更好地支持、引导、促进传统行业转型升级（见链接）
Better support, guide, and promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries
第四条 属于中国证监会公布的《上市公司行业分类指引（2012 》
（一）农林牧渔业；（二）采矿业；（三）酒、饮料和精制茶制造业；（四）纺织业；（五）黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业；（六）电力、热力、
燃气及水生产和供应业；（七）建筑业；（八）交通运输、仓储和邮政业；（九）住宿和餐饮业；（十）金融业；（十一）房地产业；（十二）居民
服务、修理和其他服务业。

 市值与财务指标
 见《》及链接
2.1.2 普通企业
发行人为境内企业且不存在表决权差异安排的，市值及财务指标应当至少符合下列标准中的一项：

2.1.3 红筹企业（注册地在境外、主要经营活动在境内的企业，见链接）
附：VIE（协议控制）与红筹（股权控制）区别，见链接
《》2018﹞21 号）等相关规定且最近一年净利润为正的红筹企业，可以申请其股票或存托凭证在创业板上市。
营业收入快速增长，拥有自主研发、国际领先技术，同行业竞争中处于相对优势地位的尚未在境外上市红筹企业，申请在创业板上市的，市值
及财务指标应当至少符合下列标准中的一项：

处于研发阶段的红筹企业和对国家创新驱动发展战略有重要意义的红筹企业，不适用“营业收入快速增长”的规定。
2.1.4 同股不同权企业
发行人具有表决权差异安排的，市值及财务指标应当至少符合下列标准中的一项：

 主板（Main Board）及海外上市
 财务指标
最近 3 个会计年度净利润均为正数且净利润累计超过 3000 万元，净利润以扣除非经常性损益前后较低者为计算依据。
最近 3 个会计年度经营活动产生的现金流量净额累计超过 5000 万元；或最近 3 个会计年度营业收入累计超过 3 亿元。
发行前股本总额不少于 3000 万元；最近一期末无形资产占净资产的比例不高于 20%；最近一期末不存在未弥补亏损。
（见深交所及上交所）
 其他维度考虑
23 倍市盈率：见链接及链接 2
 Industry Research
[宏观层面]
1. Market size and growth 行业概况: 行业的定义与细分类，市场规模与增速，细分行业发展趋势
2. Supply chain 产业链: 上下游各参与方、利润分布（强弱势）、新兴领域对于传统产业链条的改造
3. Competitive landscape 竞争格局：行业集中度、市场份额、竞争策略（核心优势）、成熟公司和创业公司、标的公司所处
地位
4. Opportunity and Risk 行业有利因素和不利因素：需求、供给、技术、政策等
5. Barrier 行业进入门槛：资金、渠道、技术、品牌、团队
[微观层面]
代表公司及标的公司研究 Case study：商业模式（Business model）、优劣势（Strength and weakness）、业务数据
（Operating data）、财务数据（成本结构、收入结构等）（Financial data）
 One-page Teaser
a) Recommendation
b) Industry dynamics
c) Company overview
d) Investment highlights
e) Risks and mitigants
f) Financial analysis
 访谈纪要
行业背景、盈利模式、经营场景、供应链、业务数据、核心竞争力（痛点解决思路）、团队架构、历次融资情况、本轮融资预期
 Metrics
General Financial Metrics: Revenue / Gross Profit Margin / Revenue CAGR, etc.
Consumer Goods:
（1） SKU Numbers: Stock Keeping Unit is a unique identifier for each of your products
 （2） Repurchase Rate 复购率（长期/短期）: Percentage of a group of customers who having
placed another order within a certain period of time
（3） Sales Rate 动销率: SKU that is actively sold / Total SKUs 有销售的商品品种数与商品总品种数的比率
TMT SaaS:
（1） Retention Rate 留存率=登录用户数/新增用户数*100%
次日留存率：（第一天新增用户数，第 2 天还登录的用户数）/第一天总注册用户数
7 日留存率：（第一天新增用户数，第 8 天还登录的用户数）/第一天总注册用户数
30 日留存率：（第一天新增用户数，第 31 天还登录的用户数）/第一天总注册用户
（2） Renewal Rate 金额续费率=已续客户 ARR/应续客户 ARR (see link)
客户数续约率（和金额续费率比较更侧重于客户企业留存），金额续费率（和客户数续约率相比更侧重于收入（财务），也能体现出增
购），以及订单维度（一个客户一年内也存在多个订单）或者账号数维度的续费（见链接）

另外各自统计的口径是有差异的，比如早期续费率的应续一般以客户首次新购为准，到续费节点的时候期间的增购也会一并计入分子，
这样的好处是很直观看到增续对比的情况。而有些企业的应续指客户新购至到期之间产生的增购均为应续。两种计算方式各有道理，但前者明
显续费率会高很多，但也不打紧，本来续费率里就要体现增购，其次续费率中的分子也会成为下一年分母中的一部分，增购意味着下一年的续
费率压力会较大。前后口径保持一致即可。
（3） Net Dollar Retention Rate; NDR (see link)
NDR=客群此刻的收入/12 个月之前的收入=客户当期期末 ARR/期初 ARR=客户当期期末 MRR/期初 MRR=客户
当期期末 DRR/期初 DRR
金额续费率主要是应续已续比照的逻辑，而 NDR 更多是期初期末比照的逻辑。
金额续费率计算主要对象是应续客户，而 NDR 是当期期初时留存客户。

Offline Business: Sales Per Square Meter / Per store / Per Personnel (Operating Efficiency:坪
效、店效、人效)
E-commerce: GMV
Internet App: DAU / MAU / usage time per person / ARPU
1. Mini Case: How to value a milk tea firm?
For relative valuation, I think we can use Starbucks (high-end), Nayuki (high-end) and 蜜雪冰城
(low end) as our benchmarks.
For the intrinsic valuation, I think we can use DCF. For the revenue projection, I think the
structure is the sales per store × number of stores. The sales are driven by different products and
prices. The number of stores are driven by expansion speed and company strategy.
2. Mini Case: Open a milk tea store / restaurant what metrics will you look at?
Product: the choices of materials will determine the cost of goods sold and the supply chain,
also we need to think about the differentiation of our product with other existing products. This is
of vital importance for the long-term success (餐饮需要关注垂直品类：轻食、重口味等潮流).
Location: It is important because it determines the numbers and tiers of potential customers
including the deliveries (外卖拓宽了餐饮的获客半径).
Experience: the experience of customers also determines the power of the brand. Style, Size
of the environment and what kind of services to provide
地段获客、好吃留存、体验激活（见链接）
Pricing strategy and brand positioning: whether the brand is targeted at low-end, middle-
end or high-end market.
3. Mini Case: Chain Restaurant
Trend:
(1) Market Potential: Compared with the United States, there is more room for improvement
in chain rate (10% vs 50%) and concentration (CR5 2% vs 15%).
相比美国，中餐连锁化率和集中度的提升空间大。
(2) The consumption scenery in restaurant are transformed gradually from official / family
banquet to small-size friends meeting.
Driving power:
(1) The great demand comes from the Z generation which has a high willingness and
spending power to pay for fast fashion food, casual drinking, etc.
(2) Chain stores caters to the trend of convenience and high efficiency under fast pace
lifestyle.
(3) Delivery also accounts for a high percentage of the sales
Successful Factors:
1) Product: good and unforgettable taste
2) Standardization: produce food quickly with strong quality control and supply chain
3) Culture and Brand: comfortable and efficient dining experience
Expense Structure:
 餐饮企业的 margin 一般较低。主要的成本在 COGS、人力和房租。
 另外餐饮企业的增长一般不会很快。业务的增长主要由 same store sales growth 和开店速度决定；SSSG 的增长受制于
physical space 和 pricing ceiling；开店速度取决于公司获得融资的能力。
 餐饮企业一般不会有太多应收账款 AR（cash business），因此 AR days 也会很低
Valuation: