JPMorgan Chase 3Q24 Earnings Review
JPMorgan Chase 3Q24 Earnings Review
EQUITY RESEARCH
Gerard Cassidy (Co-Head of Global Financials Research)
(207) 780-1554, [Link]@[Link]
Thomas Leddy (Senior Associate)
(207) 780-1554, [Link]@[Link]
Forrest Hamilton (Associate)
(207) 780-1554, [Link]@[Link]
This report is intended for editor@[Link]. Unauthorized redistribution of this report is prohibited.
a highly profitable diversified banking model. Furthermore, JPM is well ☐ Preview ☑ News Analysis
positioned to handle the Basel III - endgame re-proposal when it is released
by the Federal Reserve. Under the leadership of its Chairman & CEO, Jamie Scenario Analysis*
Dimon, we expect JPM will continue to reward long-term shareholders with Downside Current Price Upside
above-average profitability and returns in the future. Scenario Price Target Scenario
Disseminated: Oct 11, 2024 18:22EDT; Produced: Oct 11, 2024 18:22EDT
For Required Conflicts Disclosures, see page 18
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Overview
JPM reported 3Q24 net income of $12.9 billion or $4.37 per share. Excluding noncore items,
we calculate core EPS of $4.40, above our $3.83 estimate and $3.97 consensus. The earnings
beat was primarily driven by better-than-expected noninterest income and net interest
income, partially offset by a higher provision and a higher-than-expected tax rate.
3Q24 Additions/
Reconciliation to Core Earnings (Deductions) Tax Effect Millions Per Shr
Net Income to Common 12,537 4.37
Non-Core Items
Debit adjustments & other (DVA/FVA) (109) x 60% = (83) (0.03)
(109) (83) (0.03)
The company’s tangible book value (TBV) per share of $96.42 increased 3.9% from $92.77
in the prior quarter and increased 18% from $82.04 in the year-ago quarter. Sequentially,
the increase in TBV per share reflected a 2.8% increase in tangible common equity and a
1.0% decline in the period-end common shares outstanding. On a year-over-year basis the
increase in TBV per share reflected a 14% increase in tangible common equity and a 2.6%
decline in the period-end common shares outstanding. Book value per share of $115.15
increased 3.5% from $111.29 on a sequential basis and increased 15% from $100.30 in the
prior-year period.
Net interest income (FTE) was $23.5 billion versus $22.9 billion in the prior quarter and
$22.9 billion in the year-ago quarter. The firm-wide net interest margin (NIM) of 2.58%
was 4 basis points (bps) below the prior quarter, and 14 bps below the year-ago period.
Noninterest income was $19.2 billion versus $27.5 billion in the prior quarter and $17.1
billion in the year-ago quarter. Calculated core noninterest income was $19.4 billion
versus $19.7 billion in the prior quarter and $17.2 billion in the year-ago quarter.
Noninterest expense was $22.6 billion versus $23.7 billion in the prior quarter and $21.8
billion in the year-ago quarter. Calculated core noninterest expense was $22.3 billion
versus $22.4 billion in the prior quarter and $21.1 billion in the year-ago quarter.
We calculate that the nonperforming asset (NPA) ratio in the quarter was 0.83%, as
compared to 0.82% in the prior quarter. Net charge-offs (NCOs) were 0.63% of average
loans as compared with 0.68% of average loans in the prior quarter.
Capital remains very strong with the Basel III standardized common equity tier 1 (CET1)
ratio at 15.3%, flat with the prior quarter and up from 14.3% in the year-ago quarter. The
firm's SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio) of 6.0% was down from 6.1% in the prior
quarter. During the third quarter, JPM paid common dividends of $3.6 billion or $1.25 per
share and completed $6.0 billion of common stock net repurchases.
Exhibit 2 provides a comparison of the reported results with our estimates, the prior quarter
and year-ago quarter results.
Source: Company reports; S&P Capital IQ Pro; RBC Capital Markets estimates
Earnings summary
Exhibit 3 and Exhibit 4 detail the quarter’s performance on a consolidated basis relative to our
estimates in “Beat/Miss” tables.
Non-FTE net interest income was $0.39 per share pretax above our estimate.
The provision for credit losses was $0.08 per share pretax below our estimate.
Noninterest income was $0.46 per share pretax above our estimate.
Noninterest expense was ~$0.04 per share pretax below our estimate.
Net Interest Income 8.17 7.78 0.39 5.0% - - PLUS: $0.39 10.2%
- Provision for Credit Losses 1.09 1.01 - - 0.08 7.4% LESS: $0.08 -2.0%
LESS: Pref Div, Min Int & Other 0.13 0.15 (0.02) -15.8% - -
LESS: Non-Core Items (0.03) - (0.03) - - -
+ Net Other Additions/(Deductions) (0.10) (0.15) 0.05 -35.1% - - PLUS: $0.05 1.4%
= Core EPS to Common Shareholders 4.40 3.83 0.57 14.9% - - PLUS: $0.57 14.9%
From a line of business perspective and on a reported basis, the Consumer & Community
Banking segment came in $0.89 per share pretax below our estimate; Commercial &
Investment Bank came in $0.18 per share pretax above our estimate; Asset Management came
in $0.04 per share pretax above our estimates; and Corporate came in $1.18 per share pretax
above our estimate.
Consumer & Community Banking 1.41 2.30 - - (0.89) -38.6% LESS: $0.89 -23.2%
+ Commercial & Investment Bank 1.99 1.80 0.18 10.1% - - PLUS: $0.18 4.8%
LESS: Pref Div, Min Int & Other 0.13 0.15 (0.02) -15.8% - -
LESS: Non-Core Items (0.03) - (0.03) - - -
+ Net Other Additions/(Deductions) (0.10) (0.15) 0.05 -35.1% - - PLUS: $0.05 1.4%
= Core EPS to Common Shareholders 4.40 3.83 0.57 14.9% - - PLUS: $0.57 14.9%
Note: Numbers may not foot due to rounding.
Source: Company financials; RBC Capital Markets estimates
Estimates
We revised our 2024 and 2025 EPS estimates to $17.08 and $15.80 from $16.53 and $16.24,
respectively. We also introduced our 2026 EPS estimate of $17.20. Our estimates reflect
stronger noninterest income for both 2024 and 2025, higher net interest income (NII) in 2024
but lower NII in 2025, and lower noninterest expense in 2024 but slightly higher in 2025. We
revised our price target to $230 from $211. Exhibit 5 provides a “family tree” view comparing
our estimates with prior-period results.
The analysis gives the imputed price to book value ratio. The bottom of Exhibit 6 provides a
sensitivity data table for the imputed price to book value at various expected market return
and normalized ROACE assumptions. We then applied the imputed price to book valuation
multiple (assuming a normalized ROACE of ~14.03%) to the reported 3Q25 and our estimated
3Q24 book values. Our $230 price target is within the valuation range.
JPM JPM
Price to Book Value Based on the Discounted Value of Future Economic Profits Cost of Equity
Cost of Equity
Price ROE - Cost of Equity Cost of Equity = Risk-Free Rate + β x [Expected Market Return - Risk-Free Rate]
= 1 +
Book Value Cost of Equity - (1 - Total Payout Ratio) x ROE
Price
= 192%
Book Value
Valuation
Price to Book Value Based on Various Normalized ROE and Expected Market Return Scenarios
9.03% NM 390% 227% 160% 123% 100% 85% 73% 65% 58% 52% 48% 44%
10.03% NM 608% 302% 201% 151% 121% 100% 86% 75% 67% 60% 55% 50%
11.03% NM NM 416% 255% 184% 144% 118% 100% 87% 77% 69% 62% 57%
12.03% NM NM 606% 329% 226% 172% 139% 117% 100% 88% 79% 71% 64%
13.03% NM NM 989% 437% 280% 206% 163% 135% 115% 100% 89% 80% 72%
14.03% NM NM NM 605% 352% 248% 192% 156% 132% 114% 100% 90% 81%
15.03% NM NM NM 911% 453% 302% 226% 181% 151% 129% 113% 100% 90%
16.03% NM NM NM NM 605% 371% 268% 209% 172% 146% 127% 112% 100%
17.03% NM NM NM NM 858% 466% 320% 244% 197% 165% 142% 125% 111%
18.03% NM NM NM NM NM 604% 388% 285% 226% 187% 159% 139% 123%
19.03% NM NM NM NM NM 821% 478% 337% 260% 212% 179% 154% 136%
20.03% NM NM NM NM NM NM 604% 402% 301% 241% 201% 172% 150%
21.03% NM NM NM NM NM NM 793% 487% 351% 275% 226% 191% 166%
Source: RBC Capital Markets estimates
Provision for Credit Losses 3,111 2,911 6.9% 3,052 1.9% 1,384 124.8%
NONINTEREST INCOME
Investment banking fees 2,231 1,943 14.8% 2,304 -3.2% 1,722 29.6%
Principal transactions 5,988 6,026 -0.6% 6,814 -12.1% 6,210 -3.6%
Lending & deposit-related fees 1,924 1,840 4.6% 1,828 5.3% 2,039 -5.6%
Asset mgmt admin and comm. 6,415 5,979 7.3% 6,226 3.0% 5,609 14.4%
Securities gains (16) - NM (547) 97.1% (669) 97.6%
Mtgs fees and related income 402 331 21.6% 348 15.5% 414 -2.9%
Credit card income 1,345 1,238 8.7% 1,332 1.0% 1,209 11.2%
Other income 960 672 42.9% 9,149 -89.5% 614 56.4%
Total Noninterest Income 19,249 18,028 6.8% 27,454 -29.9% 17,148 12.3%
NONINTEREST EXPENSE
Compensation expense 12,817 12,899 -0.6% 12,953 -1.0% 11,726 9.3%
Occupancy expense 1,258 1,251 0.5% 1,248 0.8% 1,197 5.1%
Technology, communications and equipment expense 2,447 2,453 -0.2% 2,447 0.0% 2,386 2.6%
Professional and outside services 2,780 2,776 0.1% 2,722 2.1% 2,620 6.1%
Marketing 1,258 1,245 1.0% 1,221 3.0% 1,126 11.7%
Other Expense 2,005 2,180 -8.0% 3,122 -35.8% 2,702 -25.8%
Amortization of intangibles - - NM - NM - NM
Total Noninterest Expense 22,565 22,804 -1.1% 23,713 -4.8% 21,757 3.7%
Exhibit 9 through Exhibit 13 provide a comparison of reported line of business results with our
estimates, the prior quarter, and year-ago quarter.
Corporate (CP)
Exhibit 13 - Corporate (CP) P&L
ACTUAL RBC ESTIMATE PRIOR & YEAR-AGO QTR ACTUAL
CORPORATE (CP) 3Q24A 3Q24E % Chg 2Q24A % Chg 3Q23A % Chg
REVENUE
Principal transactions (1) 60 NM 60 NM 128 NM
Securities gains (16) - NM (546) 97.1% (669) 97.6%
All other income 172 1,237 -86.1% 8,244 -97.9% 116 48.3%
Noninterest revenue 155 1,297 -88.0% 7,758 -98.0% (425) NM
Net interest income 2,915 (1,900) NM 2,364 23.3% 1,983 47.0%
Total net revenue 3,070 (603) NM 10,122 -69.7% 1,558 97.0%
Provision for credit losses (4) - NM 5 NM 46 NM
Noninterest expense 589 1,547 -61.9% 1,579 -62.7% 696 -15.4%
Income/(loss) before income tax expense/(benefit) 2,485 (2,151) NM 8,538 -70.9% 816 204.5%
Income tax expense 675 (559) NM 1,759 -61.6% 4 NM
Net income/(loss) 1,810 (1,592) NM 6,779 -73.3% 812 122.9%
Note: $M except per share. Source: RBC Capital Markets Estimates & Company Reports
INCOME STATEMENT FY23A 1Q24A 2Q24A 3Q24A 4Q24E FY24E 1Q25E 2Q25E 3Q25E 4Q25E FY25E FY26E
Net Interest Margin (FTE) 2.70 % 2.71 % 2.62 % 2.58 % 2.51 % 2.61 % 2.47 % 2.36 % 2.21 % 2.33 % 2.34 % 2.37 %
Net Interest Income (FTE) 89,747 23,203 22,861 23,525 22,906 92,495 22,193 21,472 20,412 21,577 85,653 87,762
Provision for Credit Losses 9,320 1,884 3,052 3,111 3,031 11,078 2,957 2,787 2,462 2,474 10,679 10,654
Noninterest Income 68,837 18,852 27,454 19,249 17,648 83,203 19,759 19,903 20,110 19,475 79,247 84,399
Revenues 158,104 41,934 50,200 42,654 40,434 175,222 41,831 41,255 40,402 40,931 164,420 171,680
Noninterest Expense 87,172 22,757 23,713 22,565 22,956 91,991 23,354 23,387 23,642 23,906 94,289 97,523
Pretax Income 61,612 17,293 23,435 16,978 14,447 72,153 15,520 15,082 14,298 14,551 59,452 63,503
Income tax expense 12,060 3,874 5,286 4,080 3,343 16,583 3,546 3,432 3,228 3,294 13,501 14,554
Net Income 49,552 13,419 18,149 12,898 11,104 55,570 11,974 11,650 11,070 11,257 45,951 48,949
LESS: Preferred dividends & other 1,793 477 431 361 361 1,630 361 361 361 361 1,444 1,444
Reported Net Income to Common 47,759 12,942 17,718 12,537 10,743 53,940 11,613 11,289 10,709 10,896 44,507 47,505
LESS: Non-Core Items 362 (562) 5,357 (83) - 4,712 - - - - - -
Core Net Income to Common 47,397 13,504 12,361 12,620 10,743 49,228 11,613 11,289 10,709 10,896 44,507 47,505
Reported EPS 16.23 4.44 6.12 4.37 3.77 18.72 4.09 4.00 3.81 3.90 15.80 17.20
LESS: Non-Core Items 0.13 (0.19) 1.85 (0.03) - 1.64 - - - - - -
Core EPS 16.10 4.63 4.27 4.40 3.77 17.08 4.09 4.00 3.81 3.90 15.80 17.20
Yr/Yr Change 33.5 % 14.3 % 10.9 % (0.5)% (0.3)% 6.1 % (11.6)% (6.4)% (13.5)% 3.4 % (7.5)% 8.9 %
Avg Fully-Diluted Common Shares 2,943.1 2,912.8 2,894.9 2,865.9 2,852.0 2,881.4 2,837.9 2,824.0 2,810.1 2,796.2 2,817.0 2,762.0
EOP Common Shares 2,876.7 2,871.6 2,845.1 2,815.3 2,801.2 2,801.2 2,787.2 2,773.2 2,759.3 2,745.5 2,745.5 2,690.8
Net Share Change (57.6) (5.1) (26.5) (29.8) (14.1) (75.5) (14.0) (14.0) (13.9) (13.8) (55.7) (54.7)
Dividends Per Share 4.10 1.15 1.15 1.25 1.25 4.80 1.23 1.23 1.29 1.29 5.04 5.30
Aggregate Buyback 7,700 2,000 4,900 6,000 3,000 15,900 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 12,000 12,000
Aggregate Total Payout 19,584 5,302 8,172 9,519 6,502 29,495 6,428 6,411 6,564 6,546 25,949 26,354
Dividend Payout Ratio 25 % 24 % 26 % 28 % 33 % 28 % 30 % 30 % 33 % 33 % 31 % 30 %
Buyback Payout Ratio 16 % 15 % 40 % 48 % 28 % 32 % 26 % 27 % 28 % 28 % 27 % 25 %
Total Payout Ratio (Dividend+Buyback) 41 % 39 % 66 % 75 % 61 % 60 % 55 % 57 % 61 % 60 % 58 % 55 %
Book Value Per Share 104.45 106.81 111.29 115.15 117.27 117.27 119.75 122.14 124.28 126.52 126.52 137.07
Tangible Book Value per Share 86.07 88.43 92.77 96.42 98.44 98.44 100.83 103.12 105.17 107.31 107.31 117.47
RATIOS
Core ROAA 1.29 % 1.42 % 1.26 % 1.24 % 1.05 % 1.24 % 1.15 % 1.10 % 1.02 % 1.03 % 1.07 % 1.11 %
Core ROACE 16.9 % 18.2 % 16.3 % 15.7 % 13.1 % 15.7 % 14.2 % 13.4 % 12.4 % 12.5 % 13.1 % 13.2 %
Core ROATCE 20.7 % 22.1 % 19.6 % 18.8 % 15.6 % 18.9 % 16.8 % 15.9 % 14.7 % 14.7 % 15.5 % 15.5 %
Efficiency Ratio 52 % 52 % 52 % 52 % 57 % 53 % 56 % 57 % 58 % 58 % 57 % 57 %
Compensation/Operating Revenues 29 % 31 % 30 % 30 % 32 % 31 % 31 % 31 % 32 % 32 % 32 % 31 %
Operating Leverage YoY 777 bps (462)bps (464)bps 133 bps 1,012 bps 117 bps (258)bps (273)bps (1,151)bps (291)bps (495)bps 99 bps
Operating Fees/Operating Revenues 44 % 45 % 47 % 45 % 44 % 45 % 47 % 48 % 50 % 47 % 48 % 49 %
BALANCE SHEET FY23A 1Q24A 2Q24A 3Q24A 4Q24E FY24E 1Q25E 2Q25E 3Q25E 4Q25E FY25E FY26E
Average Loans 1,248,076 1,311,578 1,313,085 1,325,440 1,333,150 1,320,813 1,339,815 1,346,515 1,353,247 1,360,013 1,349,898 1,391,475
Average Securities 604,800 580,046 580,044 622,835 626,096 602,255 623,097 620,096 617,096 614,096 618,596 606,596
Average Other Earning Assets 1,472,832 1,553,891 1,616,596 1,673,491 1,665,124 1,627,275 1,681,775 1,690,184 1,698,635 1,707,128 1,694,430 1,711,395
Average Earnings Assets 3,325,708 3,445,515 3,509,725 3,621,766 3,624,369 3,550,344 3,644,687 3,656,795 3,668,978 3,681,237 3,662,924 3,709,466
Average Deposits 2,359,067 2,374,786 2,371,183 2,383,310 2,395,227 2,381,126 2,419,179 2,443,371 2,467,804 2,492,482 2,455,709 2,555,421
Average Total Assets 3,822,224 3,968,637 4,071,443 4,177,008 4,207,308 4,106,099 4,236,770 4,266,471 4,296,416 4,326,606 4,281,566 4,417,704
Average Common Equity 282,056 300,277 308,763 321,894 329,352 315,071 334,141 339,247 343,833 348,156 341,344 361,276
Average Tangible Common Equity 230,109 247,494 256,034 269,192 276,638 262,339 281,427 286,533 291,119 295,442 288,630 308,562
Average Total Equity 309,460 328,229 334,630 344,302 351,760 339,730 356,549 361,655 366,241 370,564 363,752 383,684
EOP Loans 1,323,706 1,309,616 1,320,700 1,340,011 1,335,466 1,335,466 1,342,143 1,348,854 1,355,598 1,362,376 1,362,376 1,411,856
EOP Securities 571,552 570,679 589,998 634,502 626,063 626,063 623,096 620,097 617,096 614,096 614,096 602,096
EOP Other Earning Assets 1,525,714 1,569,911 1,633,131 1,641,516 1,665,124 1,665,124 1,681,775 1,690,184 1,698,635 1,707,128 1,707,128 1,708,826
EOP Earnings Assets 3,420,972 3,450,206 3,543,829 3,616,029 3,626,653 3,626,653 3,647,014 3,659,134 3,671,329 3,683,600 3,683,600 3,722,778
EOP Deposits 2,400,688 2,428,409 2,396,530 2,430,772 2,371,274 2,371,274 2,394,987 2,418,937 2,443,126 2,467,558 2,467,558 2,567,750
EOP Total Assets 3,875,393 4,090,727 4,143,003 4,210,048 4,225,525 4,225,525 4,251,069 4,268,638 4,286,532 4,304,559 4,304,559 4,366,212
EOP Common Equity 300,474 306,737 316,652 324,186 328,503 328,503 333,762 338,715 342,936 347,361 347,361 368,811
EOP Tangible Common Equity 247,611 253,949 263,943 271,446 275,763 275,763 281,022 285,975 290,196 294,621 294,621 316,071
EOP Total Equity 327,878 336,637 340,552 345,836 350,153 350,153 355,412 360,365 364,586 369,011 369,011 390,461
RATIOS
EOP Loans/Deposits 55 % 54 % 55 % 55 % 56 % 56 % 56 % 56 % 55 % 55 % 55 % 55 %
TCE Ratio 6.48 % 6.29 % 6.45 % 6.53 % 6.61 % 6.61 % 6.69 % 6.78 % 6.85 % 6.93 % 6.93 % 7.33 %
Firm SLR 6.10 % 6.10 % 6.10 % 6.00 % NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Basel III CET1 Ratio 14.99 % 15.04 % 15.33 % 15.30 % 15.31 % 15.31 % 15.40 % 15.49 % 15.48 % 15.44 % 15.44 % 15.15 %
ASSET QUALITY FY23A 1Q24A 2Q24A 3Q24A 4Q24E FY24E 1Q25E 2Q25E 3Q25E 4Q25E FY25E FY26E
Net Charge-Offs 6,209 1,956 2,231 2,087 2,279 8,553 2,478 2,518 2,388 2,400 9,783 9,223
Nonaccrual Loans 6,917 7,677 7,791 8,075 9,026 9,026 9,527 9,868 9,453 9,417 9,417 11,503
Accruing TDRs - - - - - - - - - - - -
Loans 90+ PD 2,547 2,656 2,435 2,435 2,435 2,435 2,435 2,435 2,435 2,435 2,435 2,435
Nonperforming Loans (incl 90PD) 9,464 10,333 10,226 10,510 11,461 11,461 11,962 12,303 11,888 11,852 11,852 13,938
OREO & Other NPAs 680 588 632 553 553 553 553 553 553 553 553 553
Total NPAs (incl 90PD & TDRs) 10,144 10,921 10,858 11,063 12,014 12,014 12,515 12,856 12,441 12,405 12,405 14,491
Allowance for Loan Losses 22,420 22,351 22,991 23,949 24,630 24,630 25,039 25,236 25,240 25,243 25,243 26,390
Allowance for Lending-Related Commitments 1,974 1,916 2,068 2,142 2,203 2,203 2,239 2,257 2,257 2,258 2,258 2,360
Allowance for Credit Losses 24,522 24,421 25,236 26,266 26,833 26,833 27,278 27,494 27,497 27,501 27,501 28,751
RATIOS
Reserve/loans 1.85 % 1.86 % 1.91 % 1.96 % 2.01 % 2.01 % 2.03 % 2.04 % 2.03 % 2.02 % 2.02 % 2.04 %
Reserve/NPAs 242 % 224 % 232 % 237 % 223 % 223 % 218 % 214 % 221 % 222 % 222 % 198 %
NPAs/(loans+ORE) 0.77 % 0.83 % 0.82 % 0.83 % 0.90 % 0.90 % 0.93 % 0.95 % 0.92 % 0.91 % 0.91 % 1.03 %
NCOs/Avg loans 0.50 % 0.60 % 0.68 % 0.63 % 0.68 % 0.65 % 0.75 % 0.75 % 0.70 % 0.70 % 0.72 % 0.66 %
LLP/Avg Loans 0.76 % 0.58 % 0.88 % 0.91 % 0.88 % 0.81 % 0.87 % 0.81 % 0.70 % 0.70 % 0.77 % 0.75 %
GROWTH RATES FY23A 1Q24A 2Q24A 3Q24A 4Q24E FY24E 1Q25E 2Q25E 3Q25E 4Q25E FY25E FY26E
Average Loans 13.43 % (0.29)% 0.11 % 0.94 % 0.58 % 5.83 % 0.50 % 0.50 % 0.50 % 0.50 % 2.20 % 3.08 %
EOP Loans 16.56 % (1.06)% 0.85 % 1.46 % (0.34)% 0.89 % 0.50 % 0.50 % 0.50 % 0.50 % 2.02 % 3.63 %
Average Earning Assets (0.70)% 1.09 % 1.86 % 3.19 % 0.07 % 6.75 % 0.56 % 0.33 % 0.33 % 0.33 % 3.17 % 1.27 %
Average Total Assets (0.81)% 2.14 % 2.59 % 2.59 % 0.73 % 7.43 % 0.70 % 0.70 % 0.70 % 0.70 % 4.27 % 3.18 %
EOP Total Assets 5.72 % 5.56 % 1.28 % 1.62 % 0.37 % 9.03 % 0.60 % 0.41 % 0.42 % 0.42 % 1.87 % 1.43 %
EOP Deposits 2.59 % 1.15 % (1.31)% 1.43 % (2.45)% (1.23)% 1.00 % 1.00 % 1.00 % 1.00 % 4.06 % 4.06 %
Total Revenues 22.85 % 8.71 % 19.71 % (15.03)% (5.20)% 10.83 % 3.46 % (1.38)% (2.07)% 1.31 % (6.16)% 4.42 %
Net Interest Income (FTE) 33.66 % (4.03)% (1.47)% 2.90 % (2.63)% 3.06 % (3.12)% (3.25)% (4.94)% 5.71 % (7.40)% 2.46 %
Total Non-Interest Income 11.05 % 29.81 % 45.63 % (29.89)% (8.32)% 20.87 % 11.96 % 0.73 % 1.04 % (3.16)% (4.75)% 6.50 %
Total Non-Interest Expense 14.49 % (7.06)% 4.20 % (4.84)% 1.73 % 5.53 % 1.73 % 0.14 % 1.09 % 1.12 % 2.50 % 3.43 %
Reported Net Income to Common 33.06 % 45.91 % 36.90 % (29.24)% (14.31)% 12.94 % 8.09 % (2.79)% (5.14)% 1.75 % (17.49)% 6.74 %
EPS - Reported 34.28 % 46.22 % 37.75 % (28.53)% (13.89)% 15.36 % 8.63 % (2.31)% (4.67)% 2.25 % (15.60)% 8.87 %
EPS - Core 33.47 % 22.49 % (7.77)% 3.12 % (14.45)% 6.09 % 8.63 % (2.31)% (4.67)% 2.25 % (7.53)% 8.87 %
1) Nonperforming assets include loans 90+ days past due and TDRs
Source: Company filings and RBC Capital Markets estimates
Credit quality for JPM and the JPM’s credit quality is strong, and due to its strong underwriting standards we expect
industry has been resilient. What is the company’s credit metrics to remain healthy in 2024. We recognize that JPM and
the outlook for credit? the industry have been “outperforming” on credit, and a normalization of credit
trends could start to materialize over the next 12 months, which we believe would
be manageable for the company.
What is the outlook for the return of During the third quarter, JPM paid common dividends of $3.6 billion and completed
capital? $6.0 billion of common share repurchases. We expect that dividends could be
further increased over the next 12–24 months, but stock buybacks will be more
limited due to less excess capital. Buybacks pre-pandemic were driven by earnings
and excess capital, but in the future they will likely be driven primarily by earnings
growth once the company acclimates to its new CET1 (Common Equity Tier 1) ratio
under the final Basel III regulations.
Our view
What are the most material ESG To the best of our knowledge, JPM has done a good job of managing its ESG practices.
issues facing this company? Corporate governance and diversity and inclusion issues are continuously being
managed by the company. Over time, we expect that the outcomes from these
strategies that JPM has put into place will be measurable and tangible for investors
to review and analyze.
Does the company integrate ESG Yes, JPM integrates ESG considerations into its broad-based business strategies.
considerations into its strategy?
What is diversity like at the board/ JPM’s leadership is diverse; its board of directors is 42% female and 17% Black as of
management level? December 31, 2023. JPM has a lead independent outside director to help provide
objective leadership.
Does the company's board of No, JPM does not have term limits for its board of directors.
directors have term limits?
Does the company look to reduce its Yes, in October 2021, JPM joined the Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA), a group
carbon footprint in the future? convened by the United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative which
brings together a global network of banks committed to aligning their lending and
investment portfolios with net zero emissions by 2050.
260 125 Weeks 21MAY22 - 11OCT24 • Economies of scale: We believe the company has built
240 economies of scale in its consumer and wealth management
TARGET 230.00
220 CURRENT 222.29
businesses which has resulted in best-in-class returns as
200
180
measured by ROE (return on equity) which was 29% and
160 34%, respectively.
140
120
• “Fortress” balance sheet: JPM’s balance sheet is stronger
100 today than during the Financial Crisis and best-in-class, in
80 our view, given the sizable level of capital and best-in-class
200m underwriting standards.
150m
100m
50m
• Best-in-class management team: JPM is the best-managed
2022 2023 2024
M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O
money-center bank of its size, in our view. Led by Chairman
JPM US Rel. S&P 500 COMPOSITE MA 40 weeks and CEO Jamie Dimon, we believe he has developed a "deep
Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target bench" in senior management who have done a very good
Valuation job executing the company's long-term growth strategy.
Our price target of $230 is 14.6x our 2025 EPS estimate, 1.81x • Best-in-class business lines: JPM has best-in-class business
4Q25E book value, and 2.14x 4Q25E tangible book value. lines that consistently rank in the top 3 positions.
These multiples are consistent with the highest-quality banks • Synergies and cost savings: JPM’s best-in-class
in the peer group. Our price target primarily reflects our management team and business lines enable the company
profitability and risk assessment of the company relative to a to realize synergies and cost savings not readily achievable
peer group of similar companies, as well as current economic as separate entities.
expectations. Our price target and implied return support our • Diverse revenue stream: With ~41% of revenues from
Outperform rating. Consumer & Community banking, ~39% from Commercial
& Investment Banking, ~13% from Asset & Wealth
Upside scenario Management and ~7% from Corporate as of 3Q24, JPM has
Our upside scenario of $276 assumes a stronger-than- a well-diversified business mix that enables it to remain
expected economic growth in 2024 combined with the Federal profitable through the cycle.
Reserve cutting the Federal Funds rate 100-150 basis points • Capital—CET1 and SLR: The company is well capitalized with
by year-end 2025. Additionally, the outlook for credit quality a common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 15.3% as of 3Q24.
proves to be better than expected. The company’s 6.0% supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) was
down from 6.1% the prior quarter.
Downside scenario • Value creation: Long-term shareholder returns are driven
Our downside scenario of $179 assumes a recession in 2024, by tangible book value (TBV) per share and dividend per
lower earnings and profitability, higher credit losses and share growth, in our opinion. JPM's 3Q24 (TBV) per share of
slower loan growth. $96.42 increased 3.9% sequentially and increased 18% year-
over-year. Its 3Q24 annualized dividend increased 19% from
a year ago. Additionally, its book value per share of $115.15
increased 3.5% sequentially and 15% year-over-year.
Company description
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is a leading financial services firm based in the United States, with operations worldwide. JPMorgan Chase
had $4.2 trillion in assets as of September 30, 2024. The Firm is a leader in investment banking, financial services for consumers
and small businesses, commercial banking, financial transaction processing and asset management. Under the J.P. Morgan and
Chase brands, the Firm serves millions of customers predominantly in the U.S., and many of the world’s most prominent corporate,
institutional and government clients globally.
Required disclosures
Conflicts disclosures
The analyst(s) responsible for preparing this research report received compensation that is based upon various factors, including
total revenues of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates, a portion of which are or have been generated
by investment banking activities of the member companies of RBC Capital Markets and its affiliates.
With regard to the MAR investment recommendation requirements in relation to relevant securities, a member company of Royal
Bank of Canada, together with its affiliates, may have a net long or short financial interest in excess of 0.5% of the total issued
share capital of the entities mentioned in the investment recommendation. Information relating to this is available upon request
from your RBC investment advisor or institutional salesperson.
Please note that current conflicts disclosures may differ from those as of the publication date on, and as set forth in,
this report. To access current conflicts disclosures, clients should refer to [Link]
[Link]?entityId=1 or send a request to RBC CM Research Publishing, P.O. Box 50, 200 Bay Street, Royal Bank Plaza,
29th Floor, South Tower, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2W7.
A member company of RBC Capital Markets or one of its affiliates managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for
JPMorgan Chase & Co. in the past 12 months.
A member company of RBC Capital Markets or one of its affiliates received compensation for investment banking services from
JPMorgan Chase & Co. in the past 12 months.
A member company of RBC Capital Markets or one of its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for
investment banking services from JPMorgan Chase & Co. in the next three months.
RBC Capital Markets, LLC makes a market in the securities of JPMorgan Chase & Co..
RBC Dominion Securities Inc. makes a market in the securities of JPMorgan Chase & Co..
A member company of RBC Capital Markets or one of its affiliates received compensation for products or services other than
investment banking services from JPMorgan Chase & Co. during the past 12 months. During this time, a member company of RBC
Capital Markets or one of its affiliates provided non-investment banking securities-related services to JPMorgan Chase & Co..
A member company of RBC Capital Markets or one of its affiliates received compensation for products or services other than
investment banking services from JPMorgan Chase & Co. during the past 12 months. During this time, a member company of RBC
Capital Markets or one of its affiliates provided non-securities services to JPMorgan Chase & Co..
RBC Capital Markets is currently providing JPMorgan Chase & Co. with non-investment banking securities-related services.
RBC Capital Markets has provided JPMorgan Chase & Co. with non-investment banking securities-related services in the past 12
months.
RBC Capital Markets has provided JPMorgan Chase & Co. with non-securities services in the past 12 months.
Sector Perform (SP): Returns expected to be in line with sector average over 12 months.
Underperform (U): Returns expected to be materially below sector average over 12 months.
Restricted (R): RBC policy precludes certain types of communications, including an investment recommendation, when RBC is
acting as an advisor in certain merger or other strategic transactions and in certain other circumstances.
Not Rated (NR): The rating, price targets and estimates have been removed due to applicable legal, regulatory or policy constraints
which may include when RBC Capital Markets is acting in an advisory capacity involving the company.
Risk Rating
The Speculative risk rating reflects a security's lower level of financial or operating predictability, illiquid share trading volumes,
high balance sheet leverage, or limited operating history that result in a higher expectation of financial and/or stock price volatility.
Distribution of ratings
For the purpose of ratings distributions, regulatory rules require member firms to assign ratings to one of three rating categories -
Buy, Hold/Neutral, or Sell - regardless of a firm's own rating categories. Although RBC Capital Markets' ratings of Outperform (O),
Sector Perform (SP), and Underperform (U) most closely correspond to Buy, Hold/Neutral and Sell, respectively, the meanings are
not the same because our ratings are determined on a relative basis.
Distribution of ratings
RBC Capital Markets, Equity Research
As of 30-Sep-2024
Investment Banking
Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Rating Count Percent Count Percent
BUY [Outperform] 858 57.39 290 33.80
HOLD [Sector Perform] 599 40.07 153 25.54
SELL [Underperform] 38 2.54 3 7.89
Rating and price target history for: JPMorgan Chase & Co., JPM US as of 10-Oct-2024 (in USD)
13-Oct-2021 13-Apr-2022 14-Jul-2022 13-Jan-2023 24-Mar-2023 03-Apr-2023 14-Apr-2023 01-May-2023 14-Jul-2023 12-Jan-2024 12-Apr-2024
Rtg:O Rtg:O Rtg:O Rtg:O Rtg:O RL 8 NA Rtg:O Rtg:O Rtg:O Rtg:O Rtg:O
Target: 175.00 Target: 155.00 Target: 130.00 Target: 150.00 Target: 132.00 Target: 140.00 Target: 147.00 Target: 158.00 Target: 185.00 Target: 211.00
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
Q3 2022 Q1 Q2 Q3 2023 Q1 Q2 Q3 2024 Q1 Q2 Q3 2025
Legend:
O: Outperform; SP: Sector Perform; U: Underperform; R: Restricted; I: Initiation of Research Coverage; D: Discontinuation of Research Coverage;
NR: Not Rated; NA: Not Available; RL: Recommended List - RL: On: Refers to date a security was placed on a recommended list, while RL Off: Refers to date
a security was removed from a recommended list; Rtg: Rating.
Created by: BlueMatrix
References to a Recommended List in the recommendation history chart may include one or more recommended lists or model
portfolios maintained by RBC Wealth Management or one of its affiliates. RBC Wealth Management recommended lists include
the Guided Portfolio: Prime Income (RL 6), the Guided Portfolio: Dividend Growth (RL 8), the Guided Portfolio: ADR (RL 10), and
the Guided Portfolio: All Cap Growth (RL 12). The abbreviation 'RL On' means the date a security was placed on a Recommended
List. The abbreviation 'RL Off' means the date a security was removed from a Recommended List. As of April 3, 2023, U.S. RBC
Wealth Management's quarterly reports will serve as the primary communication for its models and will highlight any changes
to the model made during the quarter.
Conflicts policy
RBC Capital Markets Policy for Managing Conflicts of Interest in Relation to Investment Research is available from us on request.
To access our current policy, clients should refer to
[Link]
or send a request to RBC Capital Markets Research Publishing, P.O. Box 50, 200 Bay Street, Royal Bank Plaza, 29th Floor, South
Tower, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2W7. We reserve the right to amend or supplement this policy at any time.
Dissemination of research
RBC Capital Markets endeavors to make all reasonable efforts to provide research content simultaneously to all eligible clients,
having regard to local time zones in overseas jurisdictions. RBC Capital Markets provides eligible clients with access to Research
Reports on the Firm's proprietary INSIGHT website, via email and via third-party vendors. Please contact your investment advisor
or institutional salesperson for more information regarding RBC Capital Markets' research.
For a list of all recommendations on the company that were disseminated during the prior 12-month period, please click on the
following link: [Link]
The 12 month history of Quick Takes can be viewed at RBC Insight.
Analyst certification
All of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the responsible analyst(s) about any and all of
the subject securities or issuers. No part of the compensation of the responsible analyst(s) named herein is, or will be, directly or
indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the responsible analyst(s) in this report.
Third-party disclaimers
The Global Industry Classification Standard ("GICS”) was developed by and is the exclusive property and a service mark of MSCI Inc. (“MSCI”) and Standard & Poor's Financial Services
LLC (“S&P”) and is licensed for use by RBC. Neither MSCI, S&P, nor any other party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications makes any express or implied
warranties or representations with respect to such standard or classification (or the results to be obtained by the use thereof), and all such parties hereby expressly disclaim all warranties
of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any of such standard or classification. Without limiting any of the foregoing,
in no event shall MSCI, S&P, any of their affiliates or any third party involved in making or compiling the GICS or any GICS classifications have any liability for any direct, indirect, special,
punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages.
RBC Capital Markets disclaims all warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose with respect to any statements made to the media
or via social media that are in turn quoted in this report, or otherwise reproduced graphically for informational purposes.
Disclaimer
RBC Capital Markets is the business name used by certain branches and subsidiaries of the Royal Bank of Canada, including RBC Dominion Securities Inc., RBC
Capital Markets, LLC, RBC Europe Limited, RBC Capital Markets (Europe) GmbH, Royal Bank of Canada, Hong Kong Branch, Royal Bank of Canada, Singapore Branch
and Royal Bank of Canada, Sydney Branch. The information contained in this report has been compiled by RBC Capital Markets from sources believed to be reliable,
but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Royal Bank of Canada, RBC Capital Markets, its affiliates or any other person as to its accuracy,
completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in this report constitute RBC Capital Markets'' judgement as of the date of this report, are
subject to change without notice and are provided in good faith but without legal responsibility. Nothing in this report constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or
individually tailored investment advice. This material is prepared for general circulation to clients and has been prepared without regard to the individual financial
circumstances and objectives of persons who receive it. The investments or services contained in this report may not be suitable for you and it is recommended
that you consult an independent investment advisor if you are in doubt about the suitability of such investments or services. This report is not an offer to sell or
a solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original
capital may occur. RBC Capital Markets research analyst compensation is based in part on the overall profitability of RBC Capital Markets, which includes profits
attributable to investment banking revenues. Every province in Canada, state in the U.S., and most countries throughout the world have their own laws regulating
the types of securities and other investment products which may be offered to their residents, as well as the process for doing so. As a result, the securities
discussed in this report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. RBC Capital Markets may be restricted from publishing research reports, from time to
time, due to regulatory restrictions and/ or internal compliance policies. If this is the case, the latest published research reports available to clients may not reflect
recent material changes in the applicable industry and/or applicable subject companies. RBC Capital Markets research reports are current only as of the date set
forth on the research reports. This report is not, and under no circumstances should be construed as, a solicitation to act as securities broker or dealer in any
jurisdiction by any person or company that is not legally permitted to carry on the business of a securities broker or dealer in that jurisdiction. To the full extent
permitted by law neither RBC Capital Markets nor any of its affiliates, nor any other person, accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect or consequential
loss arising from, or in connection with, any use of this report or the information contained herein. No matter contained in this document may be reproduced or
copied by any means without the prior written consent of RBC Capital Markets in each instance.
Additional information is available on request.
To U.S. Residents:
This publication has been approved by RBC Capital Markets, LLC (member FINRA, NYSE, SIPC), which is a U.S. registered broker-dealer and which accepts
responsibility for this report and its dissemination in the United States. Any U.S. recipient of this report that is not a registered broker-dealer or a bank acting in
a broker or dealer capacity and that wishes further information regarding, or to effect any transaction in, any of the securities discussed in this report, should
contact and place orders with RBC Capital Markets, LLC.
To Canadian Residents:
This publication has been approved by RBC Dominion Securities Inc.(member CIRO). Any Canadian recipient of this report that is not a Designated Institution in
Ontario, an Accredited Investor in British Columbia or Alberta or a Sophisticated Purchaser in Quebec (or similar permitted purchaser in any other province) and
that wishes further information regarding, or to effect any transaction in, any of the securities discussed in this report should contact and place orders with RBC
Dominion Securities Inc., which, without in any way limiting the foregoing, accepts responsibility for this report and its dissemination in Canada.
To U.K. Residents:
This publication has been approved by RBC Europe Limited ('RBCEL') which is authorized by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial
Conduct Authority ('FCA') and the Prudential Regulation Authority, in connection with its distribution in the United Kingdom. This material is not for general
distribution in the United Kingdom to retail clients, as defined under the rules of the FCA. RBCEL accepts responsibility for this report and its dissemination in
the United Kingdom.
To EEA Residents:
This material is distributed in the EU by either RBCEL on an authorised cross-border basis, or by RBC Capital Markets (Europe) GmbH (RBC EG) which is authorised
and regulated in Germany by the Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority) (BaFin).
To Persons Receiving This Advice in Australia:
This material has been distributed in Australia by Royal Bank of Canada, Sydney Branch (ABN 86 076 940 880, AFSL No. 246521). This material has been prepared for
general circulation and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any recipient. Accordingly, any recipient should, before acting on
this material, consider the appropriateness of this material having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. If this material relates to the acquisition
or possible acquisition of a particular financial product, a recipient in Australia should obtain any relevant disclosure document prepared in respect of that product
and consider that document before making any decision about whether to acquire the product. This research report is not for retail investors as defined in section
761G of the Corporations Act.
To persons receiving this from Royal Bank of Canada, Hong Kong Branch:
This document is distributed in Hong Kong by Royal Bank of Canada, Hong Kong Branch which is regulated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and the Securities
and Futures Commission. This document is not for distribution in Hong Kong, to investors who are not “professional investors”, as defined in the Securities and
Futures Ordinance (Cap. 571 of Hong Kong) and any rules made under that Ordinance. This document has been prepared for general circulation and does not take
into account the objectives, financial situation, or needs of any recipient. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. WARNING: The contents of
this document have not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. Investors are advised to exercise caution in relation to the investment. If you are
in doubt about any of the contents of this document, you should obtain independent professional advice.
To persons receiving this from Royal Bank of Canada, Singapore Branch:
This publication is distributed in Singapore by the Royal Bank of Canada, Singapore Branch, a registered entity licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
This publication is not for distribution in Singapore, to investors who are not “accredited investors” and “institutional investors”, as defined in the Securities and
Futures Act 2001 of Singapore. This publication has been prepared for general circulation and does not take into account the objectives, financial situation, or
needs of any recipient. You are advised to seek independent advice from a financial adviser before purchasing any product. If you do not obtain independent
advice, you should consider whether the product is suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. If you have any questions related
to this publication, please contact the Royal Bank of Canada, Singapore Branch.
To Japanese Residents:
Unless otherwise exempted by Japanese law, this publication is distributed in Japan by or through RBC Capital Markets (Japan) Ltd. which is a Financial Instruments
Firm registered with the Kanto Local Financial Bureau (Registered number 203) and a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association (JSDA) and the Financial
Futures Association of Japan (FFAJ).
.® Registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. RBC Capital Markets is a trademark of Royal Bank of Canada. Used under license.
Copyright © RBC Capital Markets, LLC 2024 - Member SIPC
Copyright © RBC Dominion Securities Inc. 2024 - Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund
Copyright © RBC Europe Limited 2024
Copyright © Royal Bank of Canada 2024