Vale Day 2024: Future Production Insights
Vale Day 2024: Future Production Insights
“This presentation may include statements that present Vale's expectations about future events or results, including without limitation: (i) iron
ore and agglomerates production guidance on slides 10, 16, 37, 48 and 51; (ii) portfolio composition expectations on slides 10, 38 and 50; (iii)
expected capacity and start-up of Mega Hubs projects on slide 11; (iv) possibility of acquiring an additional stake in Minas-Rio and potential
offtake on slide 11; (v) copper and nickel production guidance and estimates on slides 13, 63, 64, 68 and 70; (vi) fixed spending estimate and costs
guidance on slides 15, 74, 75, 76 and 77; (vii) guidance for production from reused tailings on slide 16 and 48; (viii) steel production expectations by
region on slide 26; (ix) transoceanic iron ore demand and supply on slides 27 and 28; (x) expectations for the mega-hub business model, with
potential demand lock-in on slide 36; (xi) expectation of new agglomeration plants on slide 37; (xii) expected start-up, capacity, product
composition and cost for the S11D project on slide 46; (xiii) expectation for increase the use of biodiesel in railways on slide 49; (xiv) expectations
for brownfield expansion options on slide 59; (xv) expectations for commissioning, production and obtaining construction permits for the Bacaba
project on slide 60; (xvi) expectations for ore milled, lower unit cost after by-product and higher copper production on slide 61; (xvii) full ramp-up
of VBME project and by-product unit cost reduction on slide 62; (xviii) nickel production guidance on slides 62 and 63 ; (xix) cobalt production
estimate on slide 62; (xx) copper production estimate on slides 62, 64, 69; (xxi) expected capacity and start-up for the Alemao project on slide 64;
(xxii) expectations and project capacity on slide 68; (xxiii) expectations for cost efficiency on slide 74; (xxiv) capex guidance on slide 78; (xxv)
forecast of cash disbursement schedule on slide 79; (xxvi) forecast extended net debt target on slide 80; (xxvii) expected normalised free cash flow
return on slide 85. These risks and uncertainties include factors relating to our ability to perform our production plans and to obtain applicable
environmental licenses. It include risks and uncertainties relating to the following: (a) the countries where we operate, especially Brazil, Canada
and Indonesia; (b) the global economy; (c) the capital markets; (d) the mining and metals prices and their dependence on global industrial
production, which is cyclical by nature; (e) global competition in the markets in which Vale operates; and (f) the estimation of mineral resources
and reserves, the exploration of mineral reserves and resources and the development of mining facilities, our ability to obtain or renew licenses,
the depletion and exhaustion of mines and mineral reserves and resources. To obtain further information on factors that may lead to results
different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports Vale files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Brazilian
Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) and in particular the factors discussed under “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Risk Factors” in Vale’s
annual report on Form 20-F.”
3
Opening remarks
Gustavo Pimenta
4
Safety is our core value
Industry leader
Sul
+3 dams +4 dams Superior
Decharacterized, Removed from Lowered from
completing 53% emergency level level 3 to level 2
of the program
5
Strong deliveries in 2024…
Expected
Start-up Vargem Grande, Iron Ore production,
Mariana Capanema1 and
VBME 328
Mt
upper end of
revised guidance
Definitive agreement signed
Minas-Rio, Expected at the low end of
Brumadinho Sohar
partnerships
closed ~22 iron ore cost
ESG US$/t C1
guidance
reparation
73% Ratings
improvements
Asset
complete
Being executed VBM Nickel and copper
well-below
Review at VBM Cost guidance
S
Accelerating copper
T r us t e d
Vale growth
e D ri v e n
2030
Pa
tn
anc
r
er
rm
f o
Cultivating P er
institutional Reference in safety and
relationships operational excellence
Vale
e D ri v e n
2030 flexible iron ore portfolio
Pa
an c
rt
ne
r
rm
r fo
Pe
Focusing on customer-
oriented solutions
9
or Portfol
eri io
up
S
Growing with flexibility to maximize
value through-the-cycle
~360 Agglomerates
340-360
~328 325-335 60-70 Average
Blast portfolio by
Furnace 2030
Direct 63-64%
Fe content
Reduction
10
Advancing on our strategy
or Portfol
eri io
up
S
through partnerships
11 11
Accelerating copper growth in Carajás
Salobo Hub
South Hub
Alvo 46
Alfa 4
Cururu
Breves
existing projects
PGG
Alemao
CR 88 Cristalino
Sossego UG Visconde
Sossego Barao
Borrachudo
Small deposits
advance projects
through accretive
0km 20km
partnerships
12
Potential to accelerate up
eri
or Portfol
io
S
copper production
~350kt
Current production rate
420-500kt
with Bacaba and Alemão by 2030
~700kt 2030-35
Vale
e D ri v e n
2030 operational excellence
Pa
anc
rt
ne
r
rm
r fo
Pe
Securing competitiveness
through a talent-driven and
agile company
14
Laser-focused on Key Levers
e D ri v e n
securing cost
an c
rm
o
rf
competitiveness
Pe
15
MINING REINVENTED:
creating value through
e D ri v e n
circularity
an c
rm
o
rf
Pe
~10 Mt
30+ Mt
Gelado Project
Note: Tailings and waste piles 16
Po
erior rtfolio
up
S Cultivating institutional
T ru sted
Vale
e D ri v e n
2030 relationships
Pa
an c
rt
ne
r
rm
r fo
Pe
17
Sharing value with society
T ruste d
Pa
rt
ne
r
Prompting a
Supporting
Leader in mining Enabling safer talent-based Empowering Fostering
indigenous
decarbonization mining diverse communities biodiversity
communities
workforce
T ruste d
Pa
rt
ne
r
Sustainalytics
(the lower, the better) 36.5³ 54.5 29.4
ISS Governance
(the lower, the better)
8 10 1
MSCI
(AAA highest / CCC lowest) B CCC B
DJSI4
(the higher, the better)
455 45 46
Moody’s
(the lower, the better) NA NA CIS-26
¹ There may be methodological differences between the periods analyzed. ² As of Oct. 13, 2024. ³ Note as per history shared by Sustainalytics with Vale in May 2024. The oldest Sustainalytics report available to us, which most closely aligns with the current methodology, is from July 2019. 4 Dow Jones Sustainability
Index World. Also known as CSA (S&P Global’s Corporate Sustainability Assessment). 5 Vale completed the questionnaire for the first time in 2018. After Brumadinho, the 2018 score was reviewed and decreased from 57 to 45. 6 Neutral-to-low rating, improved in comparison to 2021 (highly negative or CIS-4). 20
Building success with the
right people and culture
21
Opening remarks
Thank You
22
Iron Ore Solutions
Rogério Nogueira
23
Iron Ore Solutions
Demand
fundamentals
Short-term
strategy
Long-term
strategy
24
Iron Ore Solutions
Demand
fundamentals
Supported by secular
trends
25
Steel demand is backed
by secular trends
Steel production by region (Mt) Steel drivers
~2,350
~2,100 Urbanization and steel intensity
~1,910 ~1,940
Energy Transition
~1,020 ~1,010 ~970 ~940
Reshoring
2024 2025 2030 2040
27
Supply challenges
are consistently
underestimated
Volume and
Seaborne iron ore supply (Mt) quality depletion
~1,600
~1,545
~1,495
~320 Complex
~365
~150 licensing processes
1Assuming an average annual depletion rate of ~3%, meaning an average Life of Mine (LOM) of 30 years based on the current
supply. 2 Including Chinese ores. 3 Including greenfield projects and replacement projects. 28
Adjusting the Phase 2
portfolio for New steelmaking
Phase 1 routes
value
Traditional steelmaking
optimization routes
alongside the
decarbonization Developing solutions to
journey provide security of supply
to new steelmaking
Adjusting porfolio for processes
market reality and
decarbonization pace Portfolio re-design
Portfolio optimization
Decarbonization journey
29
Iron Ore Solutions
Short-term
strategy
Maximizing value
creation
30
Optimizing our
portfolio in response Vale’s flexible portfolio strategy
to market needs
Iron ore
price
Market dynamics (price and premium) Prioritize
require different strategies High Maximize
high-grade
production
products
31
Our portfolio offers flexibility to hit the sweet
spot in blast furnace ironmaking
Al2O3/SiO2 relation1
4.0 High alumina & low silica High alumina High silica & alumina
% Al2O3
3.5
Vale’s iron
ore fines
3.0
Australian/Indian High silica
iron ore fines
2.5
High-silica
2.0
products
(SIO2 >12%)
1.5 Ideal
IOCJ sintering SSFT
BRBF
1.0 zone
PFC1
0.5
1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0
% SiO2
1 Limit proportion between Al2O3 and SiO2 percentages for an efficient sintering and blast furnace operation. 32
Flexibility supported by integrated supply chain,
bringing our mines closer to clients
Vale’s extended supply chain
33
Iron Ore Solutions
Long-term
strategy
Developing solutions to
new steelmaking
processes
34
Part of the upstream steelmaking chain will
relocate to regions with cost-competitive energy
Typical mining and steel chains New chain configuration with Mega Hubs
Reduction Reduction
Mining Concentration Pelletizing (BF/DR1) Steelmaking Mining Concentration Briquetting (DR) Steelmaking
Vale Vale Vale Client Client Vale Vale Client Client Client
Miners need to provide supply security and solutions to new steelmaking processes
35
Mega Hubs business model designed to speed-up
implementation and provide capital efficiency
Blast furnace
agglomerates New agglomeration plants
Tubarão plants ramp-up
2024 2025 2026 2030
US briquette plant
DR agglomerates share will Mega Hub briquette plants
grow as the industry shifts to
direct reduction route
37
Delivering a flexible
and superior portfolio
Vale’s product portfolio – Base Case (%)
Iron ore supply will require %Fe sales ~62.3% ~62.5% ~63% 63-64%
price above US$ 90/t to match
demand Others ~11% ~12% ~8%
~15% <2%
<5%
High-silica ~15% 5-10%
38
Iron Ore Solutions
Thank You
39
Iron Ore Operations
Carlos Medeiros
40
Safety drives
operational excellence
N31 record
+423% reinforcing the preventing
vs. 2023 mindset
-33% LTIFR3
vs. 2022 focusing on preventing accidents
110M24 figures compared with 2023. N3 are events with high potential that causes first-aid injuries and/or with no loss. By registering them, Vale learns and carries out
preventive actions to avoid N1 and N2 events. 2 10M24 figures compared with 2023. Process safety events that generate an unplanned or uncontrolled release of
hazardous material or energy involving equipment or operating assets. 3 10M24 figures. Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate measures the number of accidents at work that
result in more than three days lost for every million hours worked.
41
42
Identifying and
monitoring deviations
to enhance reliability
Corrective maintenance ratio
S11D operations, 2022 = 100 (the lower the better)
100
59
36
Truckless
Conveyor belt
Secondary
Truckless physical availability
+6% Reduction of planned shutdowns
crushing
44
45
Capanema commissioning
ahead of schedule
4Q23 Tubarão Briquette Plant +6 Mtpy
Commercial production ramping-up
Sep
2024 Vargem Grande 1 +15 Mtpy
Improving iron content by 2% in the Complex
80% of tailings to be dry-stacked
Nov
2024 Capanema +15 Mtpy
Hot commissioning started in Nov 2024
Natural moisture production
Flexible operation with low cost (< US$20/t)
Superior Client-focused
operational
performance
47
Embracing circularity and
Production1
creating new business models
(Mt Iron ore) 30+
Waste-to-value program
~10
Tailings Gelado: Producing high-quality pellet feed by
2024 2030 reprocessing reprocessing 37+ years of tailings at Serra Norte
(potential)
De-risking production plan Waste Serrinha: high-Fe waste processing to produce iron
processing ore and eliminate structures with low cost
Clearing licensed
operational areas
-5% CO2 emissions vs. Block factory and sustainable sand & cement:
usual operations2 Coproducts Creating coproducts from waste and transforming
tailings into viable high-quality products
1 Already included in Vale’s production plan. Including fines and ROM. 2 Average emission reduction for program initiatives. 48
Leveraging Brazil’s competitive edge for
decarbonizing our operations
Innovative Processes
Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Vale Improve our furnaces thermal efficiency to reduce
the anthracite usage
Source: CRU and Vale analysis. 1 Including scope 1 and 2 emissions of fines operations. 49
Enhancing our portfolio to meet clients’
needs through operational upgrades
Management model
implementation bearing fruit
340-360 ~360
~328 325-335
51
Iron Ore Operations
Thank You
52
Energy Transition Metals
Shaun Usmar
53
A business with significant
potential and optionality
A differentiated resource endowment Allowing a specific strategic
positioning for copper,
polymetallics, and nickel
54
Significant endowment
with substantial value potential
2.6
Mt Poly
3.0 1.3%
Mt metallic
1.6%
6.6
Mt
14.1 1.4%
2.3 Mt
Mt
1.5% 27.6
Mt
0.9%
Grant a competitive
0.6% business...
3.0
2.3
1.9 2.0
6 6
Safety and risk 4 4
management are an
integral part of our
daily routine 2021 2022 2023 20241
plant plant
Salobo Sudbury
+13% +13%
Ore milled Ore milled
(Mtpy) (Mtpy)
2023 2024¹ 2023 2024¹
+25% +170%
Truck utilization Ore mined from U/G mines
(t/h) (Mtpy)
2023 2024¹ 2023 2024¹
58
Unlocking Salobo copper potential
Mine & mill productivity
− Ramp-up of Salobo 3 and feed
grades stability
− Higher utilization of equipment
Resource potential
− Potential to add significant resources
through additional in-depth drilling
A long-life, expandable, world-class asset − Enables further extending the life of
the asset – design and optimization
59
Sossego life extension
− Additional ore from Sequeirinho pit, − Public hearings held in October − Development of near mine deposits
offsetting mine depletion to maximize ore to mill
− Construction License is expected to
− Increase in mine equipment be granted in the coming months − 1st deposit: 8-20 ktpy
productivity
− Start-up expected in 2028
− ~60 ktpy of copper – replacement
of Sossego mines
60
Sudbury “fill the mill”
Short-term payback projects
Ore milled − Low CAPEX projects that add lower
Mtpy ~7 grade ore tons
~5.5
~4 Mining strategy
− Change in cut-off grades and
extraction strategies
− Increase in mine development to
support increase in production and
lower costs
62
Improving competitiveness in nickel
Fixed cost dilution
Nickel production – ktpy − Unlock own-sourced tons in
Sudbury
− Conclude Voisey’s Bay
0-15 210-250 transition
20-25
0-5
10-15 175-210 − Deliver Onça Puma second
5-15 furnace
~160 160-175
PTVI
~153 kt
ex-PTVI Maximize downstream
utilization
− Additional own-sourced ore
2024 2025 VBME Onça Other 2026 Sudbury Downstream 2030
ramp-up Puma fill the maximization − 3rd-party feed, according to
Furnace 2 mill market conditions
63
Unlocking copper tons Sossego mine replacement
from current assets − Bacaba start-up expected in 2028
− Working on mine productivity to
Copper production – ktpy offset depletion
− Additional tons from smaller deposits
5-15 420-500 to fill the mill
20-30
15-25
30-50
340-370 350-380
~345
Brownfield expansion
+70-120 kt from 2026-30 options at Salobo
− Increase in plants productivity
through feed stability
− Increase plant capacity through
brownfield options
Alemão
− Start-up expected in 2030
2024 2025 2026 Salobo Sossego Canada Alemão 2030 − Capacity: 60-70 ktpy of copper; 105
start-up kozpy of gold in copper
concentrates
64
Fast-tracking
copper growth
65
Carajás basin compares relatively
well to large Andean deposits
Copper Mineral Reserves & Resources
> 20 Mt copper contained at
1.0
competitive grades
Cu grade - %
0.6
¹ Comprises current Carajás Basin resources including Salobo, Sossego, Alemão and Paulo Afonso deposits, as of December 31, 2023, as per Vale Form 20-F. ² Refers to deposits with more than 10 Mt of contained copper, comprising Collahuasi, Escondida, El Teniente, Queblada Blanca, Cerro
Verde, Los Bronces (including underground), Toquepala, El Abra, Andina, Los Pelambres, Radomiro Tomic, Nueva Union, Chuquicamata, Centinela and Quellaveco.
Source: Vale and S&P Capital IQ. 66
Accelerating copper growth in Carajás
Salobo Hub
South Hub
Alvo 46
Alfa 4
Cururu
Breves
existing projects
PGG
Alemao
CR 88 Cristalino
Sossego UG Visconde
Sossego Barao
Borrachudo
Small deposits
advance projects
through accretive
0km 20km
partnerships
67
Bringing projects forward
2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035+
South Hub
North Hub
Small deposits
~700 Target to
35-45 achieve new plan
60-70 capacity before
2035
70-100 Additional
plant capacity
420-500 Paulo Afonso supported by
118 and/or
Cristalino
Processing capacity
− Develop additional processing capacity
Licensing
− Obtain license & permits on time for all projects
70
Copper
Baseline of
420-500 ktpy by 2030
Accelerate copper growth in Carajás
region
Polymetallic
Poly
metallic Pursue additional copper tons...
...while contributing for
all-in cost reduction
Nickel
Stable production at
210-250 ktpy by 2030
Pursue a competitive business
through-the-cycle
71
Energy Transition Metals
Thank You
72
Finance
Murilo Muller
73
Securing cost discipline through
efficiency program
Fixed spending – Iron Ore Solutions (US$ bn)1 Cost Efficiency Program
Optimization of purchase
6.3 specifications
6.1 6.0
1 Assuming BRL FX @5.28 in 2024 and @5.50 in 2025. 2 Including FX (US$ -0.3 bn) and inflation (US$ 0.2 bn). 3 Including FX (US$ -0.2 bn) and inflation (US$ 0.1 bn).
74
Costs have gone up across the iron
ore industry in the past years
1.6
14.1
12.9 13.3 13.1 2.0
2018 2023 2018 2023 2018 2023 2018 FX and Geological New Lower Efficiency Others 2024
inflation inflation way to volumes initiatives
Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 operate and mix
1 Iron ore fines C1 cash cost – ex. 3rd-party purchases (US$/t). 2 Considers the net effect of FX (US$ -3.7t) and inflation (US$ 5.7/t) between 2018 and 2024. 75
Our goal is to deliver C1 in the
US$ 18-19.5/t range by 2030
2023 2024 2025 2026 2030 2024 FX and Geological Efficiency Higher 2030
inflation 2 inflation program volumes
and mix
1Iron ore fines C1 cash cost – ex. 3rd-party purchase (US$/t). Considering BRL@5.50 for 2025, 2026 and 2030. 2 Considering an annual inflation rate of ~3%
for Vale's average basket and an exchange rate of BRL 5.50 to USD in 2030 (real terms), adjusted for long-term inflation differentials between US and Brazil. 76
Competitiveness through the cycle
1 Assuming BRL FX @5.50 in 2025 and 2026. 2 Considering all-in premium of US$ 3-4/t in 2025 and US$ 4-6/t in 2026.
3 Considering the gold prices of US$ 2,470/tr. oz. for 2024, US$ 2,485/tr. oz. for 2025 and US$ 2,211/tr. oz. for 2026 77
Stable capex while balancing accretive growth
78
Performing on our commitments
Expected cash disbursement schedule (US$ bn) 1, 2
4Q24 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 ’31-35 Avg.
Decharacterization3 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 Stable cash outlays
3.7 2.6
Total 1.6 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.2
1Estimated cash outflow for 2024-2035 period, given BRL-USD exchange rates of 5.4481 and amounts stated in real terms. 2 Amounts stated without discount to present value, net of judicial deposits and inflation adjustments.
3Estimated annual average cash flow for Decharacterization provisions in the 2028-2035 period is US$ 248 million per year. 4 Disbursements related to the Integral Reparation Agreement ending in 2031. 5 Includes estimates of Samarco's
contribution to the Mariana settlement 79
Comfortable with our current expanded
net debt target
Expanded net debt (US$ bn) Expanded net Disciplined capital allocation
debt target
range
US$ 20 bn Current target will continue
to guide the company in the
4.7
next cycle
4.6
2.4 Remaining committed
0.1 US$ 10 bn
16.5 to dividend policy
14.2
9.5
Extraordinary dividend
Gross Cash, cash Net debt Currency Brumadinho Samarco & Expanded subject to cash generation
debt and equivalents swaps provisions Renova net debt and expanded net debt
leases andterm
short- Foundation
provisions
investments
80
Finance
Thank You
81
CFO
Marcelo Bacci
82
Navigating the waves:
ensuring competitiveness
through-the-cycle
Solid position in the Technology and Right incentives
1st quartile of the innovation shaping
Commodities across major sectors global cost curve as essential performance
enablers culture
% deviation from long-term trend
60
Iron Ore Copper Brent Iron ore cost curve (US$/t)
50
20 150
10
0 100
-10
-20
50
-30
-40
0
-50 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
1923 1940 1960 1980 2000 2023
Source: World Bank Source: Woodmac 83
Disciplined approach to capital allocation
84
Vale trades at a sizable discount vs peers
Well positioned to deliver significant returns
6
14k / 7k 6% 12% 23%
(US$/t)
4.7x (Rio) 16k / 9k 8% 14% 25%
4
3.9x (Vale³)
18k / 11k 11% 16% 28%
3
2
nov-19 nov-20 nov-21 nov-22 nov-23 nov-24
Consistent deliveries
6
5.5x (BHP²)
5
5.2x (FMG)
4.7x (Rio) Accretive growth
4
3.9x (Vale³)
Healthy shareholder
3
remuneration
2
nov-19 nov-20 nov-21 nov-22 nov-23 nov-24
Right ESG credentials
87
Closing
Gustavo Pimenta
88
Key takeaways
Safety is our core value
Po
rior rtfolio
up
e Securing cost competitiveness across
all businesses, through the cycle
S
T r us t e d
Vale
e Driv e n Flexible iron ore portfolio
2030
to maximize value
Pa
tn
a nc
r
er
rm
90