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 Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
 Brief Contents
Preface xii
1 Introduction to Data Analysis and Decision Making 1
Part 1 Exploring Data 19
2 Describing the Distribution of a Single Variable 21
3 Finding Relationships among Variables 85
Part 2 Probability and Decision Making under Uncertainty 153
4 Probability and Probability Distributions 155
5 Normal, Binomial, Poisson, and Exponential Distributions 209
6 Decision Making under Uncertainty 273
Part 3 Statistical Inference 349
7 Sampling and Sampling Distributions 351
8 Confidence Interval Estimation 387
9 Hypothesis Testing 455
Part 4 Regression Analysis and Time Series Forecasting 527
10 Regression Analysis: Estimating Relationships 529
11 Regression Analysis: Statistical Inference 601
12 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 669
Part 5 Optimization and Simulation Modeling 743
13 Introduction to Optimization Modeling 745
14 Optimization Models 811
15 Introduction to Simulation Modeling 917
16 Simulation Models 987
Part 6 Online Bonus Material
2 Using the Advanced Filter and Database Functions 2-1
17 Importing Data into Excel 17-1
Appendix A Statistical Reporting A-1
References 1055
Index 1059

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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
 Contents
Preface xii 2.7 Excel Tables for Filtering, Sorting, and
Summarizing 66
1 Introduction to Data Analysis and
2.7.1 Filtering 70
Decision Making 1
2.8 Conclusion 75
1.1 Introduction 2
CASE 2.1 Correct Interpretation of Means 81
1.2 An Overview of the Book 4
CASE 2.2 The Dow Jones Industrial Average 82
1.2.1 The Methods 4
CASE 2.3 Home and Condo Prices 83
1.2.2 The Software 7
1.3 Modeling and Models 11 3 Finding Relationships among Variables 85
1.3.1 Graphical Models 11 3.1 Introduction 87
1.3.2 Algebraic Models 12 3.2 Relationships among Categorical Variables 88
1.3.3 Spreadsheet Models 12 3.3 Relationships among Categorical Variables
1.3.4 A Seven-Step Modeling Process 14 and a Numerical Variable 92
1.4 Conclusion 16 3.3.1 Stacked and Unstacked Formats 93
CASE 1.1 Entertainment on a Cruise Ship 17 3.4 Relationships among Numerical Variables 101
3.4.1 Scatterplots 102
3.4.2 Correlation and Covariance 106
PART 1 E XPLORING DATA 19 3.5 Pivot Tables 114
3.6 An Extended Example 137
2 Describing the Distribution of a
Single Variable 21 3.7 Conclusion 144
CASE 3.1 Customer Arrivals at Bank98 149
2.1 Introduction 23
CASE 3.2 Saving, Spending, and Social
2.2 Basic Concepts 24
Climbing 150
2.2.1 Populations and Samples 24
CASE 3.3 Churn in the Cellular Phone
2.2.2 Data Sets, Variables, and Observations 25
Market 151
2.2.3 Types of Data 27
2.3 Descriptive Measures for Categorical P ROBABILITY AND D ECISION
Variables 30 PART 2 M AKING UNDER
2.4 Descriptive Measures for Numerical U NCERTAINTY 153
Variables 33
2.4.1 Numerical Summary Measures 34 4 Probability and Probability Distributions 155
2.4.2 Numerical Summary Measures with 4.1 Introduction 156
StatTools 43 4.2 Probability Essentials 158
2.4.3 Charts for Numerical Variables 48 4.2.1 Rule of Complements 159
2.5 Time Series Data 57 4.2.2 Addition Rule 159
2.6 Outliers and Missing Values 64 4.2.3 Conditional Probability and the
2.6.1 Outliers 64 Multiplication Rule 160
2.6.2 Missing Values 65 4.2.4 Probabilistic Independence 162

vi

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 4.2.5 Equally Likely Events 163 5.8 Conclusion 261
4.2.6 Subjective Versus Objective CASE 5.1 EuroWatch Company 269
Probabilities 163 CASE 5.2 Cashing in on the Lottery 270
4.3 Distribution of a Single Random Variable 166
4.3.1 Conditional Mean and Variance 170 6 Decision Making under Uncertainty 273
4.4 An Introduction to Simulation 173 6.1 Introduction 274
4.5 Distribution of Two Random Variables: Scenario 6.2 Elements of Decision Analysis 276
Approach 177 6.2.1 Payoff Tables 276
4.6 Distribution of Two Random Variables: Joint 6.2.2 Possible Decision Criteria 277
Probability Approach 183 6.2.3 Expected Monetary Value (EMV) 278
4.6.1 How to Assess Joint Probability 6.2.4 Sensitivity Analysis 280
Distributions 187 6.2.5 Decision Trees 280
4.7 Independent Random Variables 189 6.2.6 Risk Profiles 282
4.8 Weighted Sums of Random Variables 193 6.3 The PrecisionTree Add-In 290
4.9 Conclusion 200 6.4 Bayes’ Rule 303
CASE 4.1 Simpson’s Paradox 208 6.5 Multistage Decision Problems 307
5 Normal, Binomial, Poisson, and Exponential 6.5.1 The Value of Information 311
Distributions 209 6.6 Incorporating Attitudes Toward Risk 323
5.1 Introduction 211 6.6.1 Utility Functions 324
5.2 The Normal Distribution 211 6.6.2 Exponential Utility 324
5.2.1 Continuous Distributions and 6.6.3 Certainty Equivalents 328
Density Functions 211 6.6.4 Is Expected Utility Maximization
5.2.2 The Normal Density 213 Used? 330
5.2.3 Standardizing: Z-Values 214 6.7 Conclusion 331
5.2.4 Normal Tables and Z-Values 216 CASE 6.1 Jogger Shoe Company 345
5.2.5 Normal Calculations in Excel 217 CASE 6.2 Westhouser Parer Company 346
5.2.6 Empirical Rules Revisited 220 CASE 6.3 Biotechnical Engineering 347
5.3 Applications of the Normal Distribution 221
5.4 The Binomial Distribution 233
5.4.1 Mean and Standard Deviation of the
Binomial Distribution 236 PART 3 S TATISTICAL I NFERENCE 349
5.4.2 The Binomial Distribution in the
Context of Sampling 236 7 Sampling and Sampling Distributions 351
5.4.3 The Normal Approximation to the 7.1 Introduction 352
Binomial 237 7.2 Sampling Terminology 353
5.5 Applications of the Binomial Distribution 238 7.3 Methods for Selecting Random Samples 354
5.6 The Poisson and Exponential Distributions 250 7.3.1 Simple Random Sampling 354
5.6.1 The Poisson Distribution 250 7.3.2 Systematic Sampling 360
5.6.2 The Exponential Distribution 252 7.3.3 Stratified Sampling 361
5.7 Fitting a Probability Distribution to Data with 7.3.4 Cluster Sampling 364
@RISK 255 7.3.5 Multistage Sampling Schemes 365

Contents vii

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 7.4 An Introduction to Estimation 366 9.2 Concepts in Hypothesis Testing 457
7.4.1 Sources of Estimation Error 367 9.2.1 Null and Alternative Hypotheses 458
7.4.2 Key Terms in Sampling 368 9.2.2 One-Tailed Versus Two-Tailed Tests 459
7.4.3 Sampling Distribution of the Sample 9.2.3 Types of Errors 459
Mean 369 9.2.4 Significance Level and Rejection
7.4.4 The Central Limit Theorem 374 Region 460
7.4.5 Sample Size Determination 379 9.2.5 Significance from p -values 461
7.4.6 Summary of Key Ideas for Simple Random 9.2.6 Type II Errors and Power 462
Sampling 380 9.2.7 Hypothesis Tests and Confidence
7.5 Conclusion 382 Intervals 463
CASE 7.1 Sampling from DVD Movie Renters 386 9.2.8 Practical Versus Statistical Significance 463
9.3 Hypothesis Tests for a Population Mean 464
8 Confidence Interval Estimation 387 9.4 Hypothesis Tests for Other Parameters 472
8.1 Introduction 388 9.4.1 Hypothesis Tests for a Population
8.2 Sampling Distributions 390 Proportion 472
8.2.1 The t Distribution 390 9.4.2 Hypothesis Tests for Differences between
8.2.2 Other Sampling Distributions 393 Population Means 475
8.3 Confidence Interval for a Mean 394 9.4.3 Hypothesis Test for Equal Population
8.4 Confidence Interval for a Total 400 Variances 485
8.5 Confidence Interval for a Proportion 403 9.4.4 Hypothesis Tests for Differences between
8.6 Confidence Interval for a Standard Population Proportions 486
Deviation 409 9.5 Tests for Normality 494
8.7 Confidence Interval for the Difference 9.6 Chi-Square Test for Independence 500
between Means 412 9.7 One-Way ANOVA 505
8.7.1 Independent Samples 413 9.8 Conclusion 513
8.7.2 Paired Samples 421 CASE 9.1 Regression Toward the Mean 519
8.8. Confidence Interval for the Difference between CASE 9.2 Baseball Statistics 520
Proportions 427 CASE 9.3 The Wichita Anti–Drunk Driving
8.9. Controlling Confidence Interval Length 433 Advertising Campaign 521
8.9.1 Sample Size for Estimation of the CASE 9.4 Deciding Whether to Switch to a
Mean 434 New Toothpaste Dispenser 523
8.9.2 Sample Size for Estimation of CASE 9.5 Removing Vioxx from the Market 526
Other Parameters 436
8.10 Conclusion 441
CASE 8.1 Harrigan University Admissions 449
CASE 8.2 Employee Retention at D&Y 450 R EGRESSION A NALYSIS
CASE 8.3 Delivery Times at SnowPea PART 4 AND T IME S ERIES
Restaurant 451 F ORECASTING 527
CASE 8.4 The Bodfish Lot Cruise 452
10 Regression Analysis: Estimating
9 Hypothesis Testing 455 Relationships 529
9.1 Introduction 456 10.1 Introduction 531

viii Contents

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 10.2 Scatterplots: Graphing Relationships 533 11.4 Multicollinearity 616
10.2.1 Linear Versus Nonlinear Relationships 538 11.5 Include/Exclude Decisions 620
10.2.2 Outliers 538 11.6 Stepwise Regression 625
10.2.3 Unequal Variance 539 11.7 The Partial F Test 630
10.2.4 No Relationship 540 11.8 Outliers 638
10.3 Correlations: Indicators of Linear 11.9 Violations of Regression Assumptions 644
Relationships 540 11.9.1 Nonconstant Error Variance 644
10.4 Simple Linear Regression 542 11.9.2 Nonnormality of Residuals 645
10.4.1 Least Squares Estimation 542 11.9.3 Autocorrelated Residuals 645
10.4.2 Standard Error of Estimate 549 11.10 Prediction 648
10.4.3 The Percentage of Variation 11.11 Conclusion 653
Explained: R2 550 CASE 11.1 The Artsy Corporation 663
10.5 Multiple Regression 553 CASE 11.2 Heating Oil at Dupree Fuels
10.5.1 Interpretation of Regression Coefficients 554 Company 665
10.5.2 Interpretation of Standard Error of CASE 11.3 Developing a Flexible Budget at
Estimate and R2 556 the Gunderson Plant 666
10.6 Modeling Possibilities 560 CASE 11.4 Forecasting Overhead at Wagner
10.6.1 Dummy Variables 560 Printers 667
10.6.2 Interaction Variables 566
10.6.3 Nonlinear Transformations 571 12 Time Series Analysis and Forecasting 669
10.7 Validation of the Fit 586 12.1 Introduction 671
10.8 Conclusion 588 12.2 Forecasting Methods: An Overview 671
CASE 10.1 Quantity Discounts at the Firm 12.2.1 Extrapolation Methods 672
Chair Company 596 12.2.2 Econometric Models 672
CASE 10.2 Housing Price Structure in 12.2.3 Combining Forecasts 673
Mid City 597 12.2.4 Components of Time Series
CASE 10.3 Demand for French Bread at Data 673
Howie’s Bakery 598 12.2.5 Measures of Accuracy 676
CASE 10.4 Investing for Retirement 599 12.3 Testing for Randomness 678
12.3.1 The Runs Test 681
11 Regression Analysis: Statistical Inference 601 12.3.2 Autocorrelation 683
11.1 Introduction 603 12.4 Regression-Based Trend Models 687
11.2 The Statistical Model 603 12.4.1 Linear Trend 687
11.3 Inferences about the Regression 12.4.2 Exponential Trend 690
Coefficients 607 12.5 The Random Walk Model 695
11.3.1 Sampling Distribution of the Regression 12.6 Autoregression Models 699
Coefficients 608 12.7 Moving Averages 704
11.3.2 Hypothesis Tests for the Regression 12.8 Exponential Smoothing 710
Coefficients and p-Values 610 12.8.1 Simple Exponential Smoothing 710
11.3.3 A Test for the Overall Fit: The ANOVA 12.8.2 Holt’s Model for Trend 715
Table 611 12.9 Seasonal Models 720

Contents ix

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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
 12.9.1 Winters’ Exponential Smoothing 14 Optimization Models 811
Model 721 14.1 Introduction 812
12.9.2 Deseasonalizing: The Ratio-to-Moving- 14.2 Worker Scheduling Models 813
Averages Method 725 14.3 Blending Models 821
12.9.3 Estimating Seasonality with Regression 729 14.4 Logistics Models 828
12.10 Conclusion 735 14.4.1 Transportation Models 828
CASE 12.1 Arrivals at the Credit Union 740 14.4.2 Other Logistics Models 837
CASE 12.2 Forecasting Weekly Sales at 14.5 Aggregate Planning Models 848
Amanta 741
14.6 Financial Models 857
14.7 Integer Programming Models 868
14.7.1 Capital Budgeting Models 869
O PTIMIZATION AND
PART 5 14.7.2 Fixed-Cost Models 875
S IMULATION M ODELING 743
14.7.3 Set-Covering Models 883
13 Introduction to Optimization Modeling 745 14.8 Nonlinear Programming Models 891
13.1 Introduction 746 14.8.1 Basic Ideas of Nonlinear
13.2 Introduction to Optimization 747 Optimization 891
13.3 A Two-Variable Product Mix Model 748 14.8.2 Managerial Economics Models 891
13.4 Sensitivity Analysis 761 14.8.3 Portfolio Optimization Models 896
13.4.1 Solver’s Sensitivity Report 761 14.9 Conclusion 905
13.4.2 SolverTable Add-In 765 CASE 14.1 Giant Motor Company 912
13.4.3 Comparison of Solver’s Sensitivity Report CASE 14.2 GMS Stock Hedging 914
and SolverTable 770
13.5 Properties of Linear Models 772 15 Introduction to Simulation Modeling 917
13.5.1 Proportionality 773 15.1 Introduction 918
13.5.2 Additivity 773 15.2 Probability Distributions for Input
13.5.3 Divisibility 773 Variables 920
13.5.4 Discussion of Linear Properties 773 15.2.1 Types of Probability Distributions 921
13.5.5 Linear Models and Scaling 774 15.2.2 Common Probability Distributions 925
13.6 Infeasibility and Unboundedness 775 15.2.3 Using @RISK to Explore Probability
13.6.1 Infeasibility 775 Distributions 929
13.6.2 Unboundedness 775 15.3 Simulation and the Flaw of
13.6.3 Comparison of Infeasibility and Averages 939
Unboundedness 776 15.4 Simulation with Built-In Excel Tools 942
13.7 A Larger Product Mix Model 778 15.5 Introduction to the @RISK Add-in 953
13.8 A Multiperiod Production Model 786 15.5.1 @RISK Features 953
13.9 A Comparison of Algebraic and Spreadsheet 15.5.2 Loading @RISK 954
Models 796 15.5.3 @RISK Models with a Single Random
13.10 A Decision Support System 796 Input Variable 954
13.11 Conclusion 799 15.5.4 Some Limitations of @RISK 963
CASE 13.1 Shelby Shelving 807 15.5.5 @RISK Models with Several Random
CASE 13.2 Sonoma Valley Wines 809 Input Variables 964

x Contents

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 15.6 The Effects of Input Distributions on
PART 6 O NLINE B ONUS M ATERIAL
Results 969
15.6.1 Effect of the Shape of the Input 2 Using the Advanced Filter and
Distribution(s) 969 Database Functions 2-1
15.6.2 Effect of Correlated Input
Variables 972 17 Importing Data into Excel 17-1
15.7 Conclusion 978 17.1 Introduction 17-3
CASE 15.1 Ski Jacket Production 985 17.2 Rearranging Excel Data 17-4
CASE 15.2 Ebony Bath Soap 986 17.3 Importing Text Data 17-8
17.4 Importing Relational Database
16 Simulation Models 987 Data 17-14
16.1 Introduction 989 17.4.1 A Brief Introduction to Relational
Databases 17-14
16.2 Operations Models 989
17.4.2 Using Microsoft Query 17-15
16.2.1 Bidding for Contracts 989
17.4.3 SQL Statements 17-28
16.2.2 Warranty Costs 993
17.5 Web Queries 17-30
16.2.3 Drug Production with Uncertain
Yield 998 17.6 Cleansing Data 17-34
16.3 Financial Models 1004 17.7 Conclusion 17-42
CASE 17.1 EduToys, Inc. 17-46
16.3.1 Financial Planning Models 1004
16.3.2 Cash Balance Models 1009 Appendix A: Statistical Reporting A-1
16.3.3 Investment Models 1014 A.1 Introduction A-1
16.4 Marketing Models 1020 A.2 Suggestions for Good Statistical
16.4.1 Models of Customer Loyalty 1020 Reporting A-2
16.4.2 Marketing and Sales Models 1030 A.2.1 Planning A-2
16.5 Simulating Games of Chance 1036 A.2.2 Developing a Report A-3
16.5.1 Simulating the Game of Craps 1036 A.2.3 Be Clear A-4
16.5.2 Simulating the NCAA Basketball A.2.4 Be Concise A-5
Tournament 1039 A.2.5 Be Precise A-5
16.6 An Automated Template for @RISK A.3 Examples of Statistical Reports A-6
Models 1044 A.4 Conclusion A-18
16.7 Conclusion 1045
CASE 16.1 College Fund Investment 1053
References 1055
CASE 16.2 Bond Investment Strategy 1054 Index 1059

Contents xi

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 Preface
With today’s technology, companies are able to 1. Integrated coverage and applications.
collect tremendous amounts of data with relative The book provides a unified approach to
ease. Indeed, many companies now have more data business-related problems by integrating
than they can handle. However, the data are usually methods and applications that have been
meaningless until they are analyzed for trends, traditionally taught in separate courses,
patterns, relationships, and other useful information. specifically statistics and management
This book illustrates in a practical way a variety of science.
methods, from simple to complex, to help you ana- 2. Practical in approach. The book emphasizes
lyze data sets and uncover important information. In realistic business examples and the processes
many business contexts, data analysis is only the managers actually use to analyze business
first step in the solution of a problem. Acting on the problems. The emphasis is not on abstract
solution and the information it provides to make theory or computational methods.
good decisions is a critical next step. Therefore,
3. Spreadsheet-based. The book provides
there is a heavy emphasis throughout this book on
students with the skills to analyze business
analytical methods that are useful in decision mak-
problems with tools they have access to and
ing. Again, the methods vary considerably, but the
will use in their careers. To this end, we have
objective is always the same—to equip you with
adopted Excel and commercial spreadsheet
decision-making tools that you can apply in your
add-ins.
business careers.
We recognize that the majority of students in
this type of course are not majoring in a quantitative Integrated coverage and applications
area. They are typically business majors in finance,
marketing, operations management, or some other In the past, many business schools, including ours at
business discipline who will need to analyze data and Indiana University, have offered a required statistics
make quantitative-based decisions in their jobs. We course, a required decision-making course, and a
offer a hands-on, example-based approach and required management science course—or some subset
introduce fundamental concepts as they are needed. of these. One current trend, however, is to have only
Our vehicle is spreadsheet software—specifically, one required course that covers the basics of statistics,
Microsoft Excel. This is a package that most students some regression analysis, some decision making
already know and will undoubtedly use in their under uncertainty, some linear programming, some
careers. Our MBA students at Indiana University are simulation, and possibly others. Essentially, we fac-
so turned on by the required course that is based on ulty in the quantitative area get one opportunity to
this book that almost all of them (mostly finance and teach all business students, so we attempt to cover a
marketing majors) take at least one of our follow-up variety of useful quantitative methods. We are not nec-
elective courses in spreadsheet modeling. We are essarily arguing that this trend is ideal, but rather that
convinced that students see value in quantitative it is a reflection of the reality at our university and,
analysis when the course is taught in a practical and we suspect, at many others. After several years of
example-based approach. teaching this course, we have found it to be a great
opportunity to attract students to the subject and more
advanced study.
The book is also integrative in another important
Rationale for writing this book aspect. It not only integrates a number of analytical
Data Analysis and Decision Making is different from methods, but it also applies them to a wide variety
the many fine textbooks written for statistics and man- of business problems—that is, it analyzes realistic
agement science. Our rationale for writing this book is examples from many business disciplines. We include
based on three fundamental objectives. examples, problems, and cases that deal with portfolio

xii

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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
Visit [Link]
now to explore a rich
collection of testbank or
solution manual and enjoy
exciting offers!
 optimization, workforce scheduling, market share What we hope to accomplish
analysis, capital budgeting, new product analysis, and
in this book
many others.
Condensing the ideas in the above paragraphs, we
hope to:
Practical in approach
■ Reverse negative student attitudes about
We want this book to be very example-based and prac- statistics and quantitative methods by making
tical. We strongly believe that students learn best by these topics real, accessible, and interesting;
working through examples, and they appreciate the ■ Give students lots of hands-on experience with
material most when the examples are realistic and inter-
real problems and challenge them to develop
esting. Therefore, our approach in the book differs in
their intuition, logic, and problem-solving skills;
two important ways from many competitors. First, there
■ Expose students to real problems in many
is just enough conceptual development to give students
an understanding and appreciation for the issues raised business disciplines and show them how these
in the examples. We often introduce important con- problems can be analyzed with quantitative
cepts, such as multicollinearity in regression, in the methods;
context of examples, rather than discussing them in the ■ Develop spreadsheet skills, including
abstract. Our experience is that students gain greater experience with powerful spreadsheet add-ins,
intuition and understanding of the concepts and appli- that add immediate value in students’ other
cations through this approach. courses and their future careers.
Second, we place virtually no emphasis on hand
calculations. We believe it is more important for
New in the fourth edition
students to understand why they are conducting an
analysis and what it means than to emphasize the There are two major changes in this edition.
tedious calculations associated with many analytical ■ We have completely rewritten and reorganized
techniques. Therefore, we illustrate how powerful
Chapters 2 and 3. Chapter 2 now focuses on
software can be used to create graphical and numeri-
the description of one variable at a time, and
cal outputs in a matter of seconds, freeing the
Chapter 3 focuses on relationships between
rest of the time for in-depth interpretation of the
variables. We believe this reorganization is
output, sensitivity analysis, and alternative modeling
more logical. In addition, both of these
approaches. In our own courses, we move directly
chapters have more coverage of categorical
into a discussion of examples, where we focus
variables, and they have new examples with
almost exclusively on interpretation and modeling
more interesting data sets.
issues and let the software perform the number
■ We have made major changes in the problems,
crunching.
particularly in Chapters 2 and 3. Many of
the problems in previous editions were either
Spreadsheet-based teaching uninteresting or outdated, so in most cases
We are strongly committed to teaching spreadsheet- we deleted or updated such problems, and we
based, example-driven courses, regardless of whether added a number of brand-new problems. We
the basic area is data analysis or management science. also created a file, essentially a database of prob-
We have found tremendous enthusiasm for this lems, that is available to instructors. This file,
approach, both from students and from faculty around Problem [Link], indicates the context
the world who have used our books. Students learn of each of the problems, and it also shows the
and remember more, and they appreciate the material correspondence between problems in this edition
more. In addition, instructors typically enjoy teaching and problems in the previous edition.
more, and they usually receive immediate reinforce-
Besides these two major changes, there are a number
ment through better teaching evaluations. We were
of smaller changes, including the following:
among the first to move to spreadsheet-based teaching
almost two decades ago, and we have never regretted ■ Due to the length of the book, we decided to
the move. delete the old Chapter 4 (Getting the Right

Preface xiii

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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
 Data) from the printed book and make DecisionTools® add-in. The textbook Web site for
it available online as Chapter 17. This Data Analysis and Decision Making provides a link to the
chapter, now called “Importing Data into powerful DecisionTools® Suite by Palisade Corporation.
Excel,” has been completely rewritten, This suite includes seven separate add-ins, the first three
and its section on Excel tables is now in of which we use extensively:
Chapter 2. (The old Chapters 5–17 were
renumbered 4–16.) ■ @RISK, an add-in for simulation
■ The book is still based on Excel 2007, but ■ StatTools, an add-in for statistical data
where it applies, notes about changes in Excel analysis
2010 have been added. Specifically, there is a ■ PrecisionTree, a graphical-based add-in for
small section on the new slicers for pivot creating and analyzing decision trees
tables, and there are several mentions of the ■ TopRank, an add-in for performing what-if
new statistical functions (although the old
analyses
functions still work).
■ RISKOptimizer, an add-in for performing
■ Each chapter now has 10–20 “Conceptual
optimization on simulation models
Questions” in the end-of-chapter section.
There were a few “Conceptual Exercises” in ■ NeuralTools®, an add-in for finding complex,
some chapters in previous editions, but the new nonlinear relationships
versions are more numerous, consistent, and ■ EvolverTM, an add-in for performing optimiza-
relevant. tion on complex “nonsmooth” models
■ The first two linear programming (LP) Online access to the DecisionTools® Suite, avail-
examples in Chapter 13 (the old Chapter 14) able with new copies of the book, is an academic ver-
have been replaced by two product mix sion, slightly scaled down from the professional version
models, where the second is an extension of that sells for hundreds of dollars and is used by many
the first. Our thinking was that the previous leading companies. It functions for two years when
diet-themed model was overly complex as a properly installed, and it puts only modest limitations on
first LP example. the size of data sets or models that can be analyzed.
■ Several of the chapter-opening vignettes have (Visit [Link]/albrightbooks for specific
been replaced by newer and more interesting details on these limitations.) We use @RISK and
ones. PrecisionTree extensively in the chapters on simulation
■ There are now many short “fundamental and decision making under uncertainty, and we use
insights” throughout the chapters. We hope StatTools throughout all of the data analysis chapters.
these allow the students to step back from the SolverTable add-in. We also include SolverTable,
details and see the really important ideas. a supplement to Excel’s built-in Solver for optimiza-
tion. If you have ever had difficulty understanding
Solver’s sensitivity reports, you will appreciate
Software SolverTable. It works like Excel’s data tables, except
that for each input (or pair of inputs), the add-in runs
This book is based entirely on Microsoft Excel, the
Solver and reports the optimal output values.
spreadsheet package that has become the standard
SolverTable is used extensively in the optimization
analytical tool in business. Excel is an extremely
chapters. The version of SolverTable included in this
powerful package, and one of our goals is to convert
book has been revised for Excel 2007. (Although
casual users into power users who can take full
SolverTable is available on this textbook’s Web site, it
advantage of its features. If we accomplish no more
is also available for free from the first author’s Web site,
than this, we will be providing a valuable skill for the
[Link]/albrightbooks.)
business world. However, Excel has some limitations.
Therefore, this book includes several Excel add-ins
that greatly enhance Excel’s capabilities. As a group,
these add-ins comprise what is arguably the most
Possible sequences of topics
impressive assortment of spreadsheet-based software Although we use the book for our own required one-
accompanying any book on the market. semester course, there is admittedly more material

xiv Preface

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
 than can be covered adequately in one semester. We Student ancillaries
have tried to make the book as modular as possible,
allowing an instructor to cover, say, simulation Textbook Web Site
before optimization or vice versa, or to omit either Every new student edition of this book comes with an
of these topics. The one exception is statistics. Due Instant Access Code (bound inside the book). The code
to the natural progression of statistical topics, the provides access to the Data Analysis and Decision
basic topics in the early chapters should be covered Making, 4e textbook Web site that links to all of the
before the more advanced topics (regression and following files and tools:
time series analysis) in the later chapters. With this
in mind, there are several possible ways to cover the ■ DecisionTools® Suite software by Palisade
topics. Corporation (described earlier)
■ Excel files for the examples in the chapters
■ For a one-semester required course, with no (usually two versions of each—a template, or
statistics prerequisite (or where MBA students data-only version, and a finished version)
have forgotten whatever statistics they learned
■ Data files required for the problems and cases
years ago): If data analysis is the primary focus
of the course, then Chapters 2–5, 7–11, and ■ Excel [Link], which contains a useful
possibly the online Chapter 17 (all statistics tutorial for getting up to speed in Excel 2007
and probability topics) should be covered. Students who do not have a new book can purchase
Depending on the time remaining, any of the access to the textbook Web site at www.
topics in Chapters 6 (decision making under [Link].
uncertainty), 12 (time series analysis), 13–14
(optimization), or 15–16 (simulation) can be
covered in practically any order. Student Solutions
■ For a one-semester required course, with a Student Solutions to many of the odd-numbered prob-
statistics prerequisite: Assuming that students lems (indicated in the text with a colored box on the
know the basic elements of statistics (up problem number) are available in Excel format.
through hypothesis testing, say), the material Students can purchase access to Student Solutions
in Chapters 2–5 and 7–9 can be reviewed files on [Link]. (ISBN-10: 1-111-
quickly, primarily to illustrate how Excel and 52905-1; ISBN-13: 978-1-111-52905-5).
add-ins can be used to do the number
crunching. Then the instructor can choose
among any of the topics in Chapters 6, 10–11, Instructor ancillaries
12, 13–14, or 15–16 (in practically any order)
Adopting instructors can obtain the Instructors’ Reso-
to fill the remainder of the course.
urce CD (IRCD) from your regional Cengage Learning
■ For a two-semester required sequence: Given Sales Representative. The IRCD includes:
the luxury of spreading the topics over two
■ Problem [Link] file (contains informa-
semesters, the entire book can be covered.
The statistics topics in Chapters 2–5 and 7–9 tion about all problems in the book and the
should be covered in order before other correspondence between them and those in the
statistical topics (regression and time series previous edition)
analysis), but the remaining chapters can be ■ Example files for all examples in the book,
covered in practically any order. including annotated versions with addi-
tional explanations and a few extra examples
that extend the examples in the book
Custom publishing ■ Solution files (in Excel format) for all of the
If you want to use only a subset of the text, or add problems and cases in the book and solution
chapters from the authors’ other texts or your own shells (templates) for selected problems in the
materials, you can do so through Cengage Learning modeling chapters
Custom Publishing. Contact your local Cengage ■ PowerPoint® presentation files for all of the
Learning representative for more details. examples in the book

Preface xv

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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
 ■ Test Bank in Word format and now also in We also extend our sincere appreciation to the
ExamView® Testing Software (new to this reviewers who provided feedback on the authors’ pro-
edition). posed changes that resulted in this fourth edition:
The book’s password-protected instructor Web site, Henry F. Ander, Arizona State University
[Link]/decisionsciences/albright, includes James D. Behel, Harding University
the above items (Test Bank in Word format only), as
Dan Brooks, Arizona State University
well as software updates, errata, additional problems
and solutions, and additional resources for both stu- Robert H. Burgess, Georgia Institute of Technology
dents and faculty. The first author also maintains his George Cunningham III, Northwestern State University
own Web site at [Link]/albrightbooks. Rex Cutshall, Indiana University
Robert M. Escudero, Pepperdine University
Acknowledgments Theodore S. Glickman, George Washington University
The authors would like to thank several people who John Gray, The Ohio State University
helped make this book a reality. First, the authors are Joe Hahn, Pepperdine University
indebted to Peter Kolesar, Mark Broadie, Lawrence Max Peter Hoefer, Pace University
Lapin, and William Whisler for contributing some of
Tim James, Arizona State University
the excellent case studies that appear throughout the
book. Teresa Jostes, Capital University
There are more people who helped to produce Jeffrey Keisler, University of Massachusetts – Boston
this book than we can list here. However, there are a David Kelton, University of Cincinnati
few special people whom we were happy (and lucky)
Shreevardhan Lele, University of Maryland
to have on our team. First, we would like to thank our
editor Charles McCormick. Charles stepped into this Ray Nelson, Brigham Young University
project after two editions had already been published, William Pearce, Geneva College
but the transition has been smooth and rewarding. Thomas R. Sexton, Stony Brook University
We appreciate his tireless efforts to make the book a
Malcolm T. Whitehead, Northwestern State University
continued success.
We are also grateful to many of the professionals Laura A. Wilson-Gentry, University of Baltimore
who worked behind the scenes to make this book a Jay Zagorsky, Boston University
success: Adam Marsh, Marketing Manager; Laura
S. Christian Albright
Ansara, Senior Developmental Editor; Nora Heink,
Editorial Assistant; Tim Bailey, Senior Content Project Wayne L. Winston
Manager; Stacy Shirley, Senior Art Director; and
Christopher J. Zappe
Gunjan Chandola, Senior Project Manager at MPS
Limited. May 2010

xvi Preface

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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
 CHAPTER

1 Introduction to Data Analysis and

Decision Making

George Doyle/Jupiter Images

HOTTEST NEW JOBS: STATISTICS AND
MATHEMATICS

M uch of this book, as the title implies, is about data [Link] term
data analysis has long been synonymous with the term statistics, but
in today’s world, with massive amounts of data available in business and
many other fields such as health and science, data analysis goes beyond the
more narrowly focused area of traditional statistics. But regardless of what
we call it, data analysis is currently a hot topic and promises to get even
hotter in the [Link] data analysis skills you learn here, and possibly in
follow-up quantitative courses, might just land you a very interesting and
lucrative job.
This is exactly the message in a recent New York Times article,“For
Today’s Graduate, Just One Word: Statistics,” by Steve Lohr. (A similar article,
“Math Will Rock Your World,” by Stephen Baker, was the cover story for

Copyright 2010 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
Random documents with unrelated
content Scribd suggests to you:
say, the new-moone, they called by a most just name Nonæ, for that which is
new and yoong, they tearme Novum, in manner as wee doe νὲον. As for the
Ides, they tooke their name of this word εἶδὸς, that signifieth beautie; for that
the moone being then at the full, is in the very perfection of her beautie: or
haply they derived this denomination of Dios, as attributing it to Jupiter: but in
this we are not to search out exactly the just number of daies, nor upon a small
default to slander and condemne this maner of reckoning, seeing that even at
this day, when the science of Astrologie is growen to so great an increment, the
inequalitie of the motion, and course of the moone surpasseth all experience of
Mathematicians, and cannot be reduced to any certeine rule of reason.

25.

What is the cause that they repute the morrowes after Calends, Nones, and
Ides, disasterous or dismall daies, either for to set forward upon any
journey or voiage, or to march with an army into the field?

Is it because as many thinke, and as Titus Livius hath recorded in his storie; the
Tribunes militarie, at what time as they had consular and soveraigne authoritie,
went into the field with the Romane armie the morrow after the Ides of the
moneth Quintilis, which was the same that July now is, and were discomfited in a
battell by the Gaules, neere unto the river Allia: and cõsequently upon that
overthrow, lost the very city it selfe of Rome: by which occasion the morrow after
the Ides, being held and reputed for a sinister and unluckie day; superstition
entring into mens heads, proceeded farther (as she loveth alwaies so to doe) and
brought in the custome for to hold the morrow after the Nones, yea, and the
morrow after the Calends, as unfortunate, and to be as religiously observed in
semblable cases.

But against this there may be opposed many objections: for first and formost,
they lost that battell upon another day, and calling it Alliensis, by the name of the
river Allia, where it was strucken, they have it in abomination for that cause.
Againe, whereas there be many daies reputed dismal and unfortunate, they doe
not observe so precisely and with so religious feare, other daies of like
denomination in every moneth, but ech day apart onely in that moneth wherein
such and such a disaster, hapned: and that the infortunitie of one day should
draw a superstitious feare simply upon all the morrowes after Calends, Nones,
and Ides, carieth no congruitie at all, nor apparence of reason.
Consider moreover and see, whether, as of moneths they used to consecrate the
first to the gods celestiall; the second to the terrestriall, or infernall, wherein they
performe certeine expiatorie ceremonies and sacrifices of purification, and
presenting offirings and services to the dead: so of the daies in the moneth,
those which are chiefe and principall, as hath beene said, they would not have to
be kept as sacred and festivall holidaies; but such as follow after, as being
dedicated unto the spirits, called Dæmons, and those that are departed; they
also have esteemed cõsequently as unhappy, & altogether unmeet either for to
execute or to take in hand any businesse: for the Greeks adoring and serving the
gods upon their new moones and first daies of the moneth, have attributed the
second daies unto the demi-gods and Dæmons: like as at their feasts also they
drinke the second cup unto their demi-gods, and demi-goddesses. In summe,
Time is a kinde of number, and the beginning of number is (I wot not what,)
some divine thing, for it is Unitie: and that which commeth next after it is Deuz
or two, cleane opposite unto the said beginning, and is the first of all even
numbers: as for the even number it is defective, unperfect, and indefinit,
whereas contrariwise, the uneven or odde number it selfe is finite, complet, and
absolute: and for this cause like as the Nones succeed the Calends five daies
after; so the Ides follow the Nones nine daies after them; for the uneven and
odde numbers doe determine those beginnings, or principall daies; but those
which presently ensue after the said principall daies being even, are neither
ranged in any order, nor have power and puissance: and therefore men doe not
enterprise any great worke, nor set foorth voiage or journey upon such daies:
and heereto wee may to good purpose annex that pretie speech of Themistocles:
For when the morrow (quoth he) upon a time quarrelled with the festivall day
which went next before it, saying, that herselfe was busied and tooke a great
deale of pains, preparing & providing with much travel those goods which the
feast enjoied at her ease, with all repose, rest, and leisure: the Festivall day
made this answer: Thou saidst true indeed; but if I were not, where wouldst
thou be? This tale Themistocles devised, and delivered unto the Athenian
captaines, who came after him; giving them thereby to understand, that neither
they nor any acts of theirs would ever have beene seene, unlesse hee before
them had saved the citie of Athens. Forasmuch then, as every enterprise and
voiage of importance hath need of provision, and some preparatives; and for that
the Romans in old time upon their festivall daies, dispensed nothing, nor took
care for any provision; being wholy given and devoted at such times to the
service & worship of God, doing that, and nothing else; like as even yet at this
day, when the priests begin to sacrifice, they pronounce with a loud voice before
all the companie there assembled Hoc age, that is to say, Minde this, and doe no
other thing: verie like it is, and standeth to great reason, that they used not to
put themselves upon the way for any long voiage, nor tooke in hand any great
affaire or businesse presently after a festivall day, but kept within house all the
morrow after, to thinke upon their occasions, and to provide all things necessarie
for journey or exploit: or we may conjecture, that as at this very day the Romans
after they have adored the gods, and made their praiers unto them within their
temples, are woont to stay there a time, and sit them downe; even so they
thought it not reasonable to cast their great affaires so, as that they should
immediately follow upon any of their festivall daies; but they allowed some respit
and time betweene, as knowing full well, that businesses carie with them alwaies
many troubles and hinderances, beyond the opinion, expectation, and will of
those who take them in hand.

26.

What is the cause that women at Rome, when they mourne for the dead,
put on white robes, and likewise weare white cawles, coifes and kerchiefs
upon their heads.

May it not be that for to oppose themselves against hell and the darkenesse
thereof, they conforme their raiment and attire to that colour which is cleere and
bright?

Or doe they it not rather for this: that like as they clad and burie the dead corps
in white clothes, they suppose, that those who are next of kin, and come neerest
about them, ought also to weare their liverie? Now the bodie they doe in this
wise decke, because they cannot adorne the soule so; and it they are willing to
accompanie as lightsome, pure and net, as being now at the last delivered and
set free, and which hath performed a great a variable combat.

Or rather, we may guesse thus much thereby: that in such cases, that which is
most simple and least costly, is best beseeming; whereas clothes of any other
colour died, do commonly bewray either superfluitie or curiositie: for we may say
even aswell of blacke, as of purple: These robes are deceitfull: these colours also
are counterfeit. And as touching that which is of it selfe blacke, if it have not that
tincture by diers art, surely it is so coloured by nature, as being mixed and
compounded with obscuritie: and therefore there is no colour els but white,
which is pure, unmixt, and not stained and sullied with any tincture, and that
which is inimitable; in which regard, more meet and agreeable unto those who
are interred, considering that the dead is now become simple, pure, excempt
from all mixtion, and in very trueth, nothing els but delivered from the bodie, as
a staine and infection hardly scowred out and rid away. Semblably, in the citie of
Argos, whensoever they mourned, the maner was to weare white garments,
washed (as Socrates said) in faire and cleere water.

27.

What is the reason that they esteeme all the walles of the citie sacred and
inviolable, but not the gates.

Is it (as Varro saith) because we ought to thinke the walles holie, to the end that
we may fight valiantly, and die generously in the defence of them? for it seemeth
that this was the cause, why Romulus killed his owne brother Remus, for that he
presumed to leape over an holy and inviolable place: whereas contrariwise, it
was not possible to consecrate and hallow the gates, thorow which there must
needs be transported many things necessary, and namely, the bodies of the
dead. And therefore, they who begin to found a citie, environ and compasse first
with a plough all that pourprise and precinct wherein they meant to build,
drawing the said plough with an oxe and a cow coupled together in one yoke:
afterwards, when they have traced out all the said place where the walles should
stand, they measure out as much ground as will serve for the gates, but take out
the plough-share, and so passe over that space with the bare plough, as if they
meant thereby, that all the furrow which they cast up and eared, should be
sacred and inviolable.

28.

What is the reason, that when their children are to sweare by Hercules, they
will not let them do it within doores, but cause them to go forth of the
house, and take their oath abroad?

Is it because (as some would have it) that they thinke Hercules is not delighted
with keeping close within house and fitting idely, but taketh pleasure to live
abroad and lie without?

Or rather, for that of all the gods, Hercules is not (as one would say) home-bred,
but a stranger, come amongst them from afarre? For even so they would not
sweare by Bacchus, under the roofe of the house, but went forth to do it;
because he also is but a stranger among the gods.
Or haply, this is no more but a word in game and sport, given unto children: and
besides (to say a trueth) it may be a meanes to withholde and restraine them
from swearing so readily and rashly, as Phavorinus saith: for this device causeth
a certeine premeditate preparation, and giveth them (whiles they goe out of the
house) leasure and time to consider better of the matter. And a man may
conjecture also with Phavorinus, and say with him: That this fashion was not
common to other gods, but proper to Hercules: for that we finde it written, that
he was so religious, so respective and precise in his oath, that in all his life time
he never sware but once, and that was onely to Phileus the sonne of Augias. And
therefore, the prophetisse at Delphos, named Pythia, answered thus upon a time
to the Lacedæmonians:

When all these oaths you once forfend,

Your state (be sure) shall dayly mend.

29.

What should be the reason, that they would not permit the new wedded
bride to passe of herselfe over the doore-sill or threshold, when she is
brought home to her husband's house, but they that accompanie her, must
lift her up betweene them from the ground, and so convey her in.

Is it in remembrance of those first wives whom they ravished perforce from the
Sabines, who entred not into their houses of themselves with their good will, but
were carried in by them, in this maner?

Or is it perhaps, because they would be thought to goe against their willes into
that place where they were to lose their maidenhead?

Or haply it may be, that a wedded wife ought not to goe foorth of her doores,
and abandon her house, but perforce, like as she went first into it by force. For in
our countrey of Bæotia, the maner is, to burne before the doore where a new
married wife is to dwell, the axel tree of that chariot or coatch in which she rode
when she was brought to her husbands house. By which ceremonie, thus much
she is given to understand, that will she nill she, there she must now tarrie,
considering that it which brought her thither, is now gone quite and consumed.

30.
 Wherefore do they at Rome, when they bring a new espoused bride home to
the house of her husband, force her to say these words unto her spouse:
Where you are Cajus, I will be Caja?

Is it to testifie by these words, that she entreth immediately to communicate with

him in all goods, and to be a governesse and commaunder in the house as well
as he? for it implieth as much, as if she should say; where you are lord and
master, I will be lady and mistres. Now these names they used as being
common, and such as came first to hand, and for no other reason else: like as
the Civill lawiers use ordinarily these names, Cajus, Seius, Lucius, and Titius: the
Philosophers in their schooles, Dion and Theon.

Or peradventure it is in regard of Caia Cæcilia a beautifull and vertuous lady, who

in times past, espoused one of the sonnes of king Tarquinius: of which dame
there is yet to be seene even at this day one image of brasse, within the temple
of the god Sanctus: and there likewise in old time, her slippers, her distaffe and
spindels laid up for to bee seene: the one to signifie that she kept the house
well, and went not ordinarily abroad; the other to shew how she busied herselfe
at home.

31.

How commeth it, that they use to chaunt ordinarily at Weddings, this word
so much divulged, Talassio?

Is it not of Talasia, the Greeke word, which signifieth yarne: for the basket
wherein women use to put in their rolles of carded wooll, they name Talosos in
Greeke, and Calathus in Latine? Certes they that lead the bride home, cause her
to sit upon a fliece of wooll, then bringeth she foorth a distaffe and a spindle,
and with wooll all to hangeth and decketh the dore of her husbands house.

Or rather, if it be true which historians report: There was sometime a certeine

yoong gentleman, very valiant and active in feats of armes, and otherwise of
excellent parts and singular wel conditioned, whose name was Talasius: and
when they ravished and caried away the daughters of the Sabines who were
come to Rome, for to behold the solemnitie of their festivall games and plaies:
certaine meane persons, such yet as belonged to the traine & retinue of Talasius
aforesaid, had chosen foorth & were carying away, one damosel above the rest
most beautiful of visage, and for their safety and securitie as they passed along
the streets, cried out aloud Talasio, Talasio, that is to say, for Talasius, for
Talasius; to the end that no man should be so hardy as to approch nere unto
them, nor attempt to have away the maiden from them, giving it out, that they
caried her for to be the wife of Talasius; and others meeting them upon the way,
joined with them in company for the honour of Talasius, and as they followed
after, highly praised their good choice which they had made, praying the gods to
give both him and her joy of their marriage, and contentment to their hearts
desire. Now for that this marriage prooved happy and blessed, they were woont
ever after in their wedding songs to rechant and resound this name, Talasius, like
as the maner is among the Greeks to sing in such carrols, Hymenæus.

32.

What is the reason that in the moneth of May, they use at Rome to cast over
their woodden bridge into the river, certaine images of men, which they
call Argeos?

Is it in memoriall of the Barbarians who sometimes inhabited these parts, and did
so by the Greeks, murdering them in that maner as many of them as they could
take? But Hercules who was highly esteemed among them for his vertue,
abolished this cruell fashion of killing of strangers, and taught them this custome
to counterfet their auncient superstitions, and to fling these images in stead of
them: now in old time our ancestors used to name all Greeks of what countrey
soever they were, Argeos: unlesse haply a man would say, that the Arcadians
reputing the Argives to be their enemies, for that they were their neighbour
borderers, such as fled with Evander out of Arcadia, and came to inhabit these
quarters, reteined still the old hatred and ranckor, which time out of minde had
taken root, and beene setled in their hearts against the said Argives.

33.

What is the cause that the Romans in old time never went foorth out of their
houses to supper, but they caried with them their yoong sonnes, even
when they were but in their very infancie and childhood.

Was not this for the very same reason that Lycurgus instituted and ordeined, that
yoong children should ordinarily be brought into their halles where they used to
eat in publicke, called Phiditia, to the end that they might be inured and
acquainted betimes, not to use the pleasures of eating and drinking
immoderately, as brutish and ravenous beasts are wont to doe; considering that
they had their elders to oversee them, yea, and to controll their demeanour: and
in this regard haply also, that their fathers themselves should in their carriage be
more sober, honest, and frugall, in the presence of their children: for looke where
old folke are shamelesse, there it can not chuse but (as Plato saith) children and
youth will be most gracelesse and impudent.

34.

What might the reason be, that whereas all other Romans made their
offerings, ceremonies, and sacrifices for the dead, in the moneth of
February: Decimus Brutus as Cicero saith, was wont to doe the same in
the moneth of December: now this Brutus was he who first invaded the
countrey of Portugall, and with an armie passed over the river of Lethe,
that is to say, oblivion.

May it not be, that as the most part of men used not to performe any such
services for the dead, but toward the end of the moneth, and a little before the
shutting in of the evening; even so it seemeth to carie good reason, to honour
the dead at the end of the yeere; and you wot well that December was the last
moneth of all the yeere.

Or rather, it is because this was an honour exhibited to the deities terrestriall:

and it seemeth that the proper season to reverence and worship these earthly
gods, is when the fruits of the earth be fully gathered and laid up.

Or haply, for that the husband men began at this time to breake up their grounds
against their seednesse: it was meet and requisite to have in remembrance those
gods which are under the ground.

Or haply, because this moneth is dedicate and consecrated by the Romans to

Saturne; for they counted Saturne one of the gods beneath, and none of them
above: and withall, considering the greatest and most solemne feast, which they
call Saturnalia, is holden in this moneth, at what time as they seeme to have
their most frequent meeting, and make best cheere, he thought it meet and
reasonable that the dead also should enjoy some little portion thereof.
Or it may be said, that it is altogether untrue that Decimus Brutus alone
sacrificed for the dead in this moneth: for certeine it is that there was a certeine
divine service performed to Acca Larentia, and solemne effusions and libaments
of wine and milke were powred upon her sepulchre in the moneth of December.

35.

Why honoured the Romans this Acca Larentia so highly, considering she was
no better than a strumpet or courtisan?

For you must thinke, that the histories make mention of another Acca Larentia,
the nurse of Romulus, unto whom they do honour in the moneth of Aprill. As for
this courtizan Larentia, she was (as men say) surnamed Fabula, and came to be
so famous and renowmed by such an occasion as this. A certeine sexton of
Hercules his temple, having little els to doe, and living at ease (as commonly
such fellowes doe) used for the most part to spend all the day in playing at dice
and with cokall bones: and one day above the rest, it fortuned, that meeting with
none of his mates and play-fellowes who were woont to beare him company at
such games, and not knowing what to do nor how to passe the time away, he
thought with himselfe to challenge the god whose servant he was, to play at dice
with him, upon these conditions: That if himselfe woon the game, Hercules
should be a meanes for him of some good lucke and happy fortune; but in case
he lost the game, he should provide for Hercules a good supper, and withall, a
pretie wench and a faire, to be his bedfellow: these conditions being agreed
upon and set downe, he cast the dice, one chance for himselfe, and another for
the god; but his hap was to be the loser: whereupon minding to stand unto his
challenge, and to accomplish that which he had promised, he prepared a rich
supper for Hercules his god, and withall, sent for this Acca Larentia, a professed
courtisan and common harlot, whom he feasted also with him, and after supper
bestowed her in a bed within the very temple, shut the doores fast upon, and so
went his way. Now the tale goes forsooth, that in the night, Hercules companied
with her, not after the maner of men, but charged her, that the next morning
betimes she should go into the market-place, and looke what man she first met
withall, him she should enterteine in all kindnesse, and make her friend
especially. Then Larentia gat up betimes in the morning accordingly, and chanced
to encounter a certeine rich man and a stale bacheler, who was now past his
middle age, and his name was Taruntius; with him she became so familiarly
acquainted, that so long as he lived, she had the command of his whole house;
and at his death, was by his last will and testament instituted inheritresse of all
that he had. This Larentia likewise afterward departed this life, and left all her
riches unto the citie of Rome: whereupon this honour abovesaid was done unto
her.

36.

What is the cause, that they name one gate of the citie Fenestra, which is as
much to say, as window; neere unto which adjoineth the bed-chamber of
Fortune?

Is it for that king Servius a most fortunate prince, was thought & named to lie
with Fortune, who was woont to come unto him by the window? or is this but a
devised tale? But in trueth, after that king Tarquinius Priscus was deceased, his
wife Tanaquillis being a wise ladie, and endued with a roiall mind, putting forth
her head, and bending forward her bodie out of her chamber window, made a
speech unto the people, perswading them to elect Servius for their king. And this
is the reason that afterwards the place reteined this name, Fenestra.

37.

What is the reason, that of all those things which be dedicated and
consecrated to the gods, the custome is at Rome, that onely the spoiles of
enemies conquered in the warres, are neglected and suffered to run to
decay in processe of time: neither is there any reverence done unto them,
nor repaired be they at any time, when they wax olde?

Whether is it, because they (supposing their glory to fade and passe away
together with these first spoiles) seeke evermore new meanes to winne some
fresh marks and monuments of their vertue, and to leave them same behinde
them.

Or rather, for that seeing time doth waste and consume these signs and tokens
of the enmity which they had with their enemies, it were an odious thing for
them, and very invidious, if they should refresh and renew the remembrance
thereof: for even those among the Greeks, who first erected their trophes or
pillars of brasse and stone, were not commended for so doing.

38.
 What is the reason that Quintus Metellus the high priest, and reputed
besides a wise man and a politike, forbad to observe auspices, or to take
presages by flight of birds, after the moneth Sextilis, now called August.

Is it for that, as we are woont to attend upon such observations about noone or
in the beginning of the day, at the entrance also and toward the middle of the
moneth: but we take heed and beware of the daies declination, as inauspicate
and unmeet for such purposes; even so Metellus supposed, that the time after
eight moneths was (as it were) the evening of the yeere, and the latter end of it,
declining now and wearing toward an end.

Or haply, because we are to make use of these birds, and to observe their flight
for presage, whiles they are entire, perfect and nothing defective, such as they
are before Summer time. But about Autumne some of them moult, grow to be
sickly and weake; others are over young and too small; and some againe
appeare not at all, but like passengers are gone at such a time into another
countrey.

39.

What is the cause, that it was not lawfull for them who were not prest
soldiors by oth and enrolled, although upon some other occasions they
conversed in the campe, to strike or wound an enemie? And verely Cato
himselfe the elder of that name signified thus much in a letter missive
which he wrote unto his sonne: wherein he straitly charged him, that if he
had accomplished the full time of his service, and that his captain had
given him his conge and discharge, he should immediately returne: or in
case he had leifer stay still in the campe, that he should obtaine of his
captaine permission and licence to hurt and kill his enemie.

Is it because there is nothing else but necessitie alone, doeth warrantize the
killing of a man: and he who unlawfully and without expresse commaundement
of a superiour (unconstrained) doth it, is a meere homicide and manslaier. And
therefore Cyrus commended Chrysantas, for that being upon the verie point of
killing his enemie, as having lifted up his cemiter for to give him a deadly wound,
presently upon the sound of the retreat by the trumpet, let the man go, and
would not smite him, as if he had beene forbidden so to do.
Or may it not be, for that he who presenteth himselfe to fight with his enemie, in
case he shrink, and make not good his ground, ought not to go away cleere
withal, but to be held faulty and to suffer punishment: for he doth nothing so
good service that hath either killed or wounded an enemie, as harme and
domage, who reculeth backe or flieth away: now he who is discharged from
warfare, and hath leave to depart, is no more obliged and bound to militarie
lawes: but he that hath demaunded permission to do that service which sworne
and enrolled souldiers performe, putteth himselfe againe under the subjection of
the law and his owne captaine.

40.

How is it, that the priest of Jupiter, is not permitted to annoint himselfe
abroad in the open aire?

Is it for that in old time it was not held honest and lawfull for children to do off
their clothes before their fathers; nor the sonne in law in the presence of his
wives father; neither used they the stouph or bath together: now is Jupiter
reputed the priests or Flamines father: and that which is done in the open aire,
seemeth especially to be in the verie eie and sight of Jupiter?

Or rather, like as it was thought a great sinne and exceeding irreverence, for a
man to turne himselfe out of his apparrell naked, in any church, chappell, or
religious and sacred place; even so they carried a great respect unto the aire and
open skie, as being full of gods, demi-gods, and saints. And this is the verie
cause, why we doe many of our necessarie businesses within doores, enclosed
and covered with the roofe of our houses, and so remooved from the eies as it
were of the deitie. Moreover, some things there be that by law are commaunded
and enjoined unto the priest onely; and others againe unto all men, by the
priest: as for example, heere with us in Bœotia; to be crowned with chaplets of
flowers upon the head; to let the haire grow long; to weare a sword, and not to
set foot within the limits of Phocis, pertaine all to the office and dutie of the
captaine generall and chiefe ruler: but to tast of no new fruits before the
Autumnall Aequinox be past; nor to cut and prune a vine but before the
Aequinox of the Spring, be intimated and declared unto all by the said ruler or
captaine generall: for those be the verie seasons to do both the one & the other.
In like case, it should seeme in my judgement that among the Romans it
properly belonged to the priest; not to mount on horseback; not to be above
three nights out of the citie; not to put off his cap, whereupon he was called in
the Roman language, Flamen. But there be many other offices and duties,
notified and declared unto all men by the priest, among which this is one, not to
be enhuiled or anointed abroad in the open aire: For this manner of anointing
drie without the bath, the Romans mightily suspected and were afraid of: and
even at this day they are of opinion, that there was no such cause in the world
that brought the Greeks under the yoke of servitude and bondage, and made
them so tender and effeminate, as their halles and publike places where their
yong men wrestled & exercised their bodies naked: as being the meanes that
brought into their cities, much losse of time, engendred idlenesse, bred lazie
slouth, and ministred occasion & opportunity of lewdnesse and vilany; as namely,
to make love unto faire boies, and to spoile and marre the bodies of young men
with sleeping, with walking at a certeine measure, with stirring according to
motions, keeping artificiall compasse, and with observing rules of exquisit diet.
Through which fashions, they see not, how (ere they be aware) they be fallen
from exercises of armes, and have cleane forgotten all militarie discipline: loving
rather to be held and esteemed good wrestlers, fine dauncers, conceited
pleasants, and faire minions, than hardie footmen, or valiant men of armes. And
verely it is an hard matter to avoid and decline these inconveniences, for them
that use to discover their bodies naked before all the world in the broad aire: but
those who annoint themselves closely within doores, and looke to their bodies at
home are neither faulty nor offensive.

41.

What is the reason that the auncient coine and mony in old time, caried the
stampe of one side of Ianus with two faces: and on the other side, the
prow or the poope of a boat engraved therein.

Was it not as many men do say, for to honour the memorie of Saturne, who
passed into Italy by water in such a vessel? But a man may say thus much as
well of many others: for Janus, Evander, and Aeneas, came thither likewise by
sea; and therefore a man may peradventure gesse with better reason; that
whereas some things serve as goodly ornaments for cities, others as necessarie
implements: among those which are decent and seemely ornaments, the
principall is good government and discipline, and among such as be necessary, is
reckoned, plentie and abundance of victuals: now for that Janus instituted good
government, in ordeining holsome lawes, and reducing their manner of life to
civilitie, which before was rude and brutish, and for that the river being
navigable, furnished them with store of all necessary commodities, whereby
some were brought thither by sea, others from the land; the coine caried for the
marke of a law-giver, the head with two faces, like as we have already said,
because of that change of life which he brought in; and of the river, a ferrie
boate or barge: and yet there was another kinde of money currant among them,
which had the figure portraied upon it, of a beefe, of a sheepe, and of a swine;
for that their riches they raised especially from such cattle, and all their wealth
and substance consisted in them. And heereupon it commeth, that many of their
auncient names, were Ovilij, Bubulci and Porcij, that is to say, Sheepe-reeves,
and Neat-herds, and Swineherds according as Fenestella doth report.

42.

What is the cause that they make the temple of Saturne, the chamber of the
citie, for to keepe therein the publicke treasure of gold and silver: as also
their arches, for the custodie of all their writings, rolles, contracts and
evidences whatsoever.

Is it by occasion of that opinion so commonly received, and the speech so

universally currant in every mans mouth, that during the raigne of Saturne, there
was no avarice nor injustice in the world; but loialtie, truth, faith, and
righteousnesse caried the whole sway among men.

Or for that he was the god who found out fruits, brought in agriculture, and
taught husbandry first; for the hooke or sickle in his hand signifieth so much, and
not as Antimachus wrote, following therein and beleeving Hesiodus:

Rough Saturne with his hairy skinne, against

all law and right,
Of Aemons sonne, sir Ouranus, or Cœlus
sometime hight,
Those privy members which him gat, with
hooke a-slant off-cut.
And then anon in fathers place of reigne,
himselfe did put.

Now the abundance of the fruits which the earth yeeldeth, and the vent or
disposition of them, is the very mother that bringeth foorth plentie of monie: and
therefore it is that this same god they make the author and mainteiner of their
felicitie: in testimonie whereof, those assemblies which are holden every ninth
day in the cõmon place of the city, called Nundinæ, that is to say, Faires or
markets, they esteeme consecrated to Saturne: for the store & foison of fruits is
that which openeth the trade & comerce of buying and selling. Or, because these
reasons seeme to be very antique; what and if we say that the first man who
made (of Saturns temple at Rome) the treasurie or chamber of the citie was
Valerius Poplicola, after that the kings were driven out of Rome, and it seemeth
to stand to good reason that he made choise thereof, because he thought it a
safe and secure place, eminent and conspicuous in all mens eies, and by
consequence hard to be surprised and forced.

43.

What is the cause that those who come as embassadours to Rome, from any
parts whatsoever, go first into the temple of Saturne, and there before the
Questors or Treasurers of the citie, enter their names in their registers.

Is it for that Saturne himselfe was a stranger in Italy, and therefore all strangers
are welcome unto him?

Or may not this question be solved by the reading of histories? for in old time
these Questors or publick Treasurers, were wont to send unto embassadors
certeine presents, which were called Lautia: and if it fortuned that such
embassadors were sicke, they tooke the charge of them for their cure; and if
they chanced to die, they enterred them likewise at the cities charges. But now
in respect of the great resort of embassadors from out of all countries, they have
cut off this expense: howbeit the auncient custome yet remaineth, namely, to
present themselves to the said officers of the treasure, and to be registred in
their booke.

44.

Why is it not lawfull for Jupiters priest to sweare?

Is it because an oth ministered unto free borne men, is as it were the racke and
torture tendred unto them? for certeine it is, that the soule as well as the bodie
of the priest, ought to continue free, and not be forced by any torture
whatsoever.

Or, for that it is not meet to distrust or discredit him in small matters, who is
beleeved in great and divine things?
Or rather because every oth ended with the detestation and malediction of
perjurie: and considering that all maledictions be odious and abominable;
therefore it is not thought good that any other priests whatsoever, should curse
or pronounce any malediction: and in this respect was the priestresse of Minerva
in Athens highly commended, for that she would never curse Alcibiades,
notwithstanding the people commanded her so to doe: For I am (quoth she)
ordeined a priestresse to pray for men, and not to curse them.

Or last of all, was it because the perill of perjurie would reach in common to the
whole common wealth, if a wicked, godlesse and forsworne person, should have
the charge and superintendance of the praiers, vowes, and sacrifices made in the
behalfe of the citie.

45.

What is the reason that upon the festivall day in the honour of Venus, which
solemnitie they call Veneralia, they use to powre foorth a great quantitie of
wine out of the temple of Venus.

Is it as some say upon this occasion, that Mezentius sometime captaine generall
of the Tuscans, sent certeine embassadors unto Aeneas, with commission to
offer peace unto him, upon this condition, that he might receive all the wine of
that [141]yeeres vintage. But when Aeneas refused so to doe, Mezentius (for to
encourage his souldiers the Tuskans to fight manfully) promised to bestow wine
upon them when he had woon the field: but Aeneas understanding of this
promise of his, consecrated and dedicated all the said wine unto the gods: and in
trueth, when he had obteined the victorie, all the wine of that yeere, when it was
gotten and gathered together, he powred forth before the temple of Venus.

Or, what if one should say, that this doth symbolize thus much: That men ought
to be sober upon festivall daies, and not to celebrate such solemnities with
drunkennesse; as if the gods take more pleasure to see them shed wine upon
the ground, than to powre overmuch thereof downe their throats?

46.

What is the cause that in ancient time they kept the temple of the goddesse
Horta, open alwaies.
Whether was it (as Antistius Labeo hath left in writing) for that, seeing Hortari in
the Latine tongue signifieth to incite and exhort, they thought that the goddesse
called Horta, which stirreth and provoketh men unto the enterprise and execution
of good exploits, ought to be evermore in action, not to make delaies, nor to be
shut up and locked within dores, ne yet to sit still and do nothing?

Or rather, because as they name her now a daies Hora, with the former syllable
long, who is a certeine industrious, vigilant and busie goddesse, carefull in many
things: therefore being as she is, so circumspect and so watchfull, they thought
she should be never idle, nor rechlesse of mens affaires.

Or els, this name Hora (as many others besides) is a meere Greeke word, and
signifieth a deitie or divine power, that hath an eie to overlooke, to view and
controll all things; and therefore since she never sleepeth, nor laieth her eies
together, but is alwaies broad awake, therefore her church or chapel was alwaies
standing open.

But if it be so as Labeo saith, that this word Hora is rightly derived of the Greeke
verbe ὁρμᾶν or παρορμᾶν, which signifieth to incite or provoke; consider better,
whether this word Orator also, that is to say, one who stirrith up, exhorteth,
encourageth, and adviseth the people, as a prompt and ready counseller, be not
derived likewise in the same sort, and not of ἀρα or εὐχὴ, that is to say, praier
and supplication, as some would have it.

47.

Wherefore founded Romulus the temple of Vulcane without the citie of

Rome?

Is it for the jealousie (which as fables do report) Vulcane had of Mars, because of
his wife Venus: and so Romulus being reputed the sonne of Mars, would not
vouchsafe him to inhabit and dwell in the same citie with him? or is this a meere
foolerie and senselesse conceit?

But this temple was built at the first, to be a chamber and parlour of privie
counsell for him and Tatius who reigned with him; to the end that meeting and
sitting there in consultation together with the Senatours, in a place remote from
all troubles and hinderances, they might deliberate as touching the affaires of
State with ease and quietnesse.
Or rather, because Rome from the very first foundation was subject to fire by
casualtie, hee thought good to honour this god of fire in some sort, but yet to
place him without the walles of the citie.

48.

What is the reason, that upon their festivall day called Consualia, they
adorned with garlands of flowers as well their asses as horses, and gave
them rest and repose for the time?

Is it for that this solemnitie was holden in the honour of Neptune surnamed
Equestris, that is to say, the horseman? and the asse hath his part of this joyfull
feast, for the horses sake?

Or, because that after navigation and transporting of commodities by sea was
now found out and shewed to the world, there grew by that meanes (in some
sort) better rest and more ease to poore labouring beasts of draught and
carriage.

49.

How commeth it to passe, that those who stood for any office and
magistracie, were woont by an old custome (as Cato hath written) to
present themselves unto the people in a single robe or loose gowne,
without any coat at all under it?

Was it for feare lest they should carrie under their robes any money in their
bosomes, for to corrupt, bribe, and buy (as it were) the voices and suffrages of
the people?

Or was it because they deemed men woorthy to beare publicke office and to
governe, not by their birth and parentage, by their wealth and riches, ne yet by
their shew and outward reputation, but by their wounds and scarres to be seene
upon their bodies. To the end therefore, that such scarres might be better
exposed to their fight whom they met or talked withall, they went in this maner
downe to the place of election, without inward coats in their plaine gownes.
Or haply, because they would seeme by this nuditie and nakednesse of theirs, in
humilitie to debase themselves, the sooner thereby to curry favor, and win the
good grace of the commons, even as well as by taking them by the right hand,
by suppliant craving, and by humble submission on their very knees.

50.

What is the cause that the Flamen or priest of Jupiter, when his wife was
once dead, used to give up his Priesthood or Sacerdotall dignitie,
according as Ateius hath recorded in his historie.

Was it for that he who once had wedded a wife, and afterwards buried her, was
more infortunate, than he who never had any? for the house of him who hath
maried a wife, is entire and perfect, but his house who once had one, and now
hath none, is not onely unperfect, but also maimed and lame?

Or might it not bee that the priests wife was consecrated also to divine service
together with her husband; for many rites and ceremonies there were, which he
alone could not performe, if his wife were not present: and to espouse a new
wife immediately upon the decease of the other, were not peradventure possible,
nor otherwise would well stand with decent and civill honesty: wherupon neither
in times past was it lawful for him, nor at this day as it should seem, is he
permitted to put away his wife: and yet in our age Domitian at the request of
one, gave licence so to doe: at this dissolution and breach of wedlocke, other
priests were present and assistant, where there passed among them many
strange, hideous, horrible, and monstrous ceremonies.

But haply a man would lesse wonder at this, if ever he knew and understood
before, that when one of the Censors died, the other of necessity must likewise
quit & resigne up his office. Howbeit, when Livius Drusus was departed this life,
his companion in office Aemylius Scaurus, would not give over and renounce his
place, untill such time as certeine Tribunes of the people, for his contumacie
commanded, that he should be had away to prison.

51.

What was the reason that the idols Lares, which otherwise properly be called
Præstites, had the images of a dogge standing hard by them, and the
 Lares themselves were portraied clad in dogges skinnes?

Is it because this word Præstites signifieth as much as ωροεστῶτες, that is to

say, Presidents, or standing before as keepers: and verily such Presidents ought
to be good house-keepers, and terrible unto all strangers, like as a dogge is; but
gentle and loving to those of the house.

Or rather, that which some of the Romans write is true, like as Chrysippus also
the philosopher is of opinion; namely, that there be certeine evill spirits which
goe about walking up and downe in the world; and these be the butchers and
tormentors that the gods imploy to punish unjust and wicked men: and even so
these Lares are held to be maligne spirits, & no better than divels, spying into
mens lives, and prying into their families; which is the cause that they now be
arraied in such skinnes, and a dogge they have sitting hard by them, whereby
thus much in effect is given to understand, that quicke sented they are, and of
great power both to hunt out, and also to chastice leud persons.

52.

What is the cause that the Romans sacrifice a dogge unto the goddesse
called Genita-Mana, and withall make one praier unto her, that none borne
in the house might ever come to good?

Is it for that this Genita-Mana is counted a Dæmon or goddesse that hath the
procuration and charge both of the generation and also of the birth of things
corruptible? for surely the word implieth as much, as a certeine fluxion and
generation, or rather a generation fluent or fluxible: and like as the Greeks
sacrificed unto Proserpina, a dog, so do the Romans unto that Genita, for those
who are borne in the house. Socrates also saith, that the Argives sacrificed a
dogge unto Ilithya, for the more easie and safe deliverance of child-birth.
Furthermore, as touching that Praier, that nothing borne within the house might
ever proove good, it is not haply meant of any persons, man or woman, but of
dogges rather which were whelped there; which ought to be, not kinde and
gentle, but curst and terrible.

Or peradventure, for that they [142]that die (after an elegant maner of speech)
be named Good or quiet: under these words they covertly pray, that none borne
in the house might die. And this need not to seeme a strange kinde of speech;
for Aristotle writeth, that in a certeine treatie of peace betweene the Arcadians &
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