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Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing 1322

Dario Russo · Tareq Ahram ·

Waldemar Karwowski ·
Giuseppe Di Bucchianico ·
Redha Taiar Editors

Intelligent
Human Systems
Integration 2021
Proceedings of the 4th International
Conference on Intelligent Human
Systems Integration (IHSI 2021):
Integrating People and Intelligent
Systems, February 22–24, 2021,
Palermo, Italy
Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing

Volume 1322

Series Editor
Janusz Kacprzyk, Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences,
Warsaw, Poland

Advisory Editors
Nikhil R. Pal, Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India
Rafael Bello Perez, Faculty of Mathematics, Physics and Computing,
Universidad Central de Las Villas, Santa Clara, Cuba
Emilio S. Corchado, University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain
Hani Hagras, School of Computer Science and Electronic Engineering,
University of Essex, Colchester, UK
László T. Kóczy, Department of Automation, Széchenyi István University,
Gyor, Hungary
Vladik Kreinovich, Department of Computer Science, University of Texas
at El Paso, El Paso, TX, USA
Chin-Teng Lin, Department of Electrical Engineering, National Chiao
Tung University, Hsinchu, Taiwan
Jie Lu, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology,
University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Patricia Melin, Graduate Program of Computer Science, Tijuana Institute
of Technology, Tijuana, Mexico
Nadia Nedjah, Department of Electronics Engineering, University of Rio de Janeiro,
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Ngoc Thanh Nguyen , Faculty of Computer Science and Management,
Wrocław University of Technology, Wrocław, Poland
Jun Wang, Department of Mechanical and Automation Engineering,
The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong
The series “Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing” contains publications
on theory, applications, and design methods of Intelligent Systems and Intelligent
Computing. Virtually all disciplines such as engineering, natural sciences, computer
and information science, ICT, economics, business, e-commerce, environment,
healthcare, life science are covered. The list of topics spans all the areas of modern
intelligent systems and computing such as: computational intelligence, soft comput-
ing including neural networks, fuzzy systems, evolutionary computing and the fusion
of these paradigms, social intelligence, ambient intelligence, computational neuro-
science, artificial life, virtual worlds and society, cognitive science and systems,
Perception and Vision, DNA and immune based systems, self-organizing and
adaptive systems, e-Learning and teaching, human-centered and human-centric
computing, recommender systems, intelligent control, robotics and mechatronics
including human-machine teaming, knowledge-based paradigms, learning para-
digms, machine ethics, intelligent data analysis, knowledge management, intelligent
agents, intelligent decision making and support, intelligent network security, trust
management, interactive entertainment, Web intelligence and multimedia.
The publications within “Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing” are
primarily proceedings of important conferences, symposia and congresses. They
cover significant recent developments in the field, both of a foundational and
applicable character. An important characteristic feature of the series is the short
publication time and world-wide distribution. This permits a rapid and broad
dissemination of research results.
Indexed by SCOPUS, DBLP, EI Compendex, INSPEC, WTI Frankfurt eG,
zbMATH, Japanese Science and Technology Agency (JST), SCImago.
All books published in the series are submitted for consideration in Web of
Science.

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11156

Dario Russo Tareq Ahram
• •

Waldemar Karwowski •

Giuseppe Di Bucchianico •

Redha Taiar
Editors

Intelligent Human Systems

Integration 2021
Proceedings of the 4th International
Conference on Intelligent Human Systems
Integration (IHSI 2021): Integrating People
and Intelligent Systems, February 22–24, 2021,
Palermo, Italy

123
Editors
Dario Russo Tareq Ahram
Università degli Studi di Palermo Institute for Advanced Systems Engineering
Palermo, Palermo, Italy Florida, FL, USA

Waldemar Karwowski Giuseppe Di Bucchianico

University of Central Florida Università degli Studi di Chieti-Pescara
Orlando, FL, USA Pescara, Italy

Redha Taiar
Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne
Reims, France

ISSN 2194-5357 ISSN 2194-5365 (electronic)

Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing
ISBN 978-3-030-68016-9 ISBN 978-3-030-68017-6 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-68017-6
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license
to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether
the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of
illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and
transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar
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The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this
publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from
the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
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Preface

This volume, entitled Intelligent Human Systems Integration 2021, provides a

global forum for introducing and discussing novel approaches, design tools,
methodologies, techniques, and solutions for integrating people with intelligent
technologies, automation, and artificial cognitive systems in all areas of human
endeavor in industry, economy, government, and education. Some of the notable
areas of application include, but are not limited to, energy, transportation, urban-
ization and infrastructure development, digital manufacturing, social development,
human health, sustainability, a new generation of service systems, as well as
developments in safety, risk assurance, and cybersecurity in both civilian and
military contexts. Indeed, rapid progress in developments in ambient intelligence,
including cognitive computing, modeling, and simulation, as well as smart sensor
technology, weaves together the human and artificial intelligence and will have a
profound effect on the nature of their collaboration at both the individual and
societal levels in the near future.
As applications of artificial intelligence and cognitive computing become more
prevalent in our daily lives, they also bring new social and economic challenges and
opportunities that must be addressed at all levels of contemporary society. Many
of the traditional human jobs that require high levels of physical or cognitive
abilities, including human motor skills, reasoning, and decision-making abilities, as
well as training capacity, are now being automated. While such trends might boost
economic efficiency, they can also negatively impact the user experience and bring
about many unintended social consequences and ethical concerns.
The intelligent human systems integration is, to a large extent, affected by the
forces shaping the nature of future computing and artificial system development.
This book discusses the needs and requirements for the symbiotic collaboration
between humans and artificially intelligent systems, with due consideration of the
software and hardware characteristics allowing for such cooperation from the
societal and human-centered design perspectives, with the focus on the design of
intelligent products, systems, and services that will revolutionize future
human-technology interactions. This book also presents many innovative studies of
ambient artificial technology and its applications, including the human–machine

v
vi Preface

interfaces with a particular emphasis on infusing intelligence into the development

of technology throughout the lifecycle development process, with due consideration
of user experience and the design of interfaces for virtual, augmented, and mixed
reality applications of artificial intelligence.
Reflecting on the above-outlined perspective, the papers contained in this vol-
ume are organized into eight main sections, including:
Section 1 Human-Autonomy Teaming
Section 2 Automotive Design and Transportation Engineering
Section 3 Humans and Artificial Cognitive Systems
Section 4 Intelligence, Technology and Analytics
Section 5 Computational Modeling and Simulation
Section 6 Humans and Artificial Systems Complexity
Section 7 Technology, Materials and Inclusive Human Systems
Section 8 Applications and Future Trends

We would like to extend our sincere thanks to Axel Schulte and Stefania
Camplone, for leading a part of the technical program that focuses on
Human-Autonomy Teaming and Inclusive Human Systems. Our appreciation also
goes to the members of Scientific Program Advisory Board who have reviewed the
accepted papers that are presented in this volume, including the following
individuals:
D. Andujar, USA
D. Băilă, Romania
H. Blaschke, Germany
S. Camplone, Italy
J. Chen, USA
G. Coppin, France
M. Draper, USA
A. Ebert, Germany
M. Ferrara, Italy
M. Hou, Canada
M. Jipp, Germany
E. Karana, The Netherlands
A. Kluge, Germany
D. Lange, USA
F. Leali, Italy
S. Lucibello, Italy
E. Macioszek, Poland
S. Nazir, Norway
M. Neerincx, The Netherlands
R. Philipsen, Germany
J. Platts, UK
D. Popov, USA
Preface vii

A. Ratti, Italy
V. Rognoli, Italy
U. Schmid, Germany
A. Schulte, Germany
G. Sierpiński, Poland
N. Stanton, UK
A. Vergnano, Italy
We hope that this book, which presents the current state of the art in Intelligent
Human Systems Integration, will be a valuable source of both theoretical and
applied knowledge enabling the design and applications of a variety of intelligent
products, services, and systems for their safe, effective, and pleasurable collabo-
ration with people.

Dario Russo
Tareq Ahram
Waldemar Karwowski
Giuseppe Di Bucchianico
Redha Taiar
Contents

Human-Autonomy Teaming
Anticipating Human Decision for an Optimal Teaming Between
Manned and Unmanned Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Jane Jean Kiam, Marius Dudek, and Axel Schulte
Delegation in Human-Machine Teaming: Progress, Challenges
and Prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
Jurriaan van Diggelen, Jonathan Barnhoorn, Ruben Post, Joris Sijs,
Nanda van der Stap, and Jasper van der Waa
Human-Centered Design in an Automated World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Claire Blackett
Sensor Fusion-Based Supervised Learning Approach to Developing
Collaborative Manipulation System with Variable Autonomy . . . . . . . . 24
Stefan Wheeless and S. M. Mizanoor Rahman
Towards a Balanced Analysis for a More Intelligent Human
Systems Integration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Frank Flemisch, Michael Preutenborbeck, Marcel Baltzer, Joscha Wasser,
Ronald Meyer, Nicolas Herzberger, Marten Bloch, Marcel Usai,
and Daniel Lopez
Multi-agent Collaboration in an Adversarial Turret
Reconnaissance Task . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Rolando Fernandez, Anjon Basak, Bryson Howell, Christopher Hsu,
Erin Zaroukian, Jake Perret, James Humann, Michael Dorothy,
Piyush K. Sharma, Scott Nivison, Zachary Bell, and Derrik Asher
Comparison of a Logistic and SVM Model to Detect Discomfort
in Automated Driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Paul Dommel, Alois Pichler, and Matthias Beggiato

ix
x Contents

Evaluation of Swarm Supervision Complexity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50

Sebastian Lindner and Axel Schulte
Psychophysics-Based Cognitive Reinforcement Learning to Optimize
Human-Robot Interaction in Power-Assisted Object Manipulation . . . . 56
S. M. Mizanoor Rahman

Automotive Design and Transportation Engineering

System Architecture for Gesture Control of Maneuvers
in Automated Driving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Marcel Usai, Ronald Meyer, Ralph Baier, Nicolas Herzberger,
Kristian Lebold, and Frank Flemisch
Service Oriented Software Architecture for Vehicle Diagnostics . . . . . . 72
Lorenz Görne and Hans-Christian Reuss
Investigation of Personality Traits and Driving Styles
for Individualization of Autonomous Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Yvonne Brück, Dario Niermann, Alexander Trende, and Andreas Lüdtke
Predicting Takeover Quality in Conditionally Automated Vehicles
Using Machine Learning and Genetic Algorithms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
Emmanuel de Salis, Quentin Meteier, Marine Capallera,
Leonardo Angelini, Andreas Sonderegger, Omar Abou Khaled,
Elena Mugellini, Marino Widmer, and Stefano Carrino
“Automated but Not Alone”: How the Possible Forms of Future
Human Activity Are Analyzed in the Advent
of Automated Vehicles? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
Daniel Silva and Liliana Cunha
The Impact of Connected and Autonomous Trucks on Freeway
Traffic Flow . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
Yue Qiao and Yongju Hu
Application of the Algorithm for the Recognition of Pedestrian
Disturbance Patterns by Lucas-Kanade Method in Real Time . . . . . . . . 104
Wendy Quispe, Josue Tinoco, Grimaldo Quispe, and Carlos Raymundo
Comparison the Ultrasonic Distance Sensor with the Lidar
in Different Conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Łukasz Karbowiak, Mariusz Kubanek, and Janusz Bobulski

Humans and Artificial Cognitive Systems

Taxonomy for Individualized and Adaptive Human-Centered
Workplace Design in Industrial Site Assembly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
Patrick Rupprecht and Sebastian Schlund
Contents xi

Cyber-Therapy: The Use of Artificial Intelligence

in Psychological Practice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
Chiara Lucifora, Leonardo Angelini, Quentin Meteier,
Carmelo M. Vicario, Omar Abou Khaled, Elena Mugellini,
and Giorgio M. Grasso
Integrating Voice Based Interaction with Massive Data Process
Description and Execution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
Constantin Nandra, Sonia Grigor, and Dorian Gorgan
Analysis of Employee Unsafe Behavior Based on Cellular
Automata Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
Yan-mei Wang, Yunqi Dong, and Xue-bo Chen
Technological Innovations for Executive Functions Stimulation . . . . . . . 146
María Judith López and Carlos Ramos-Galarza
Influence of Size and Depth Perception on Ray-Casting Interaction
in Virtual Reality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
Xiaolei Lv, Chengqi Xue, and Weiye Xiao
Technological Resources to Stimulate Multiple Intelligences:
Verbal-Linguistic and Logical-Mathematical . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
Mónica Bolaños-Pasquel, Micaela Silva-Barragán,
Pamela Acosta-Rodas, Omar Cóndor-Herrera, Jorge Cruz-Cárdenas,
and Carlos Ramos-Galarza
NeuroDesignScience: An fNIRS-Based System Designed to Help
Pilots Sustain Attention During Transmeridian Flights . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
Amanda Liu, Binbin Li, Xiaohan Wang, Songyang Zhang, Yancong Zhu,
and Wei Liu
Reading Multiple EEG Frequency-Band Networks
in Developmental Dyslexia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
Tihomir Taskov and Juliana Dushanova
Technological Resources for Neuropsychological Rehabilitation . . . . . . . 181
Carlos Ramos-Galarza, Micaela Silva-Barragán, Omar Cóndor-Herrera,
Mónica Bolaños-Pasquel, Valentina Ramos, and Jorge Cruz-Cárdenas
A Modeling Method to Evaluate the Finger-Click Interactive Task
in the Virtual Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187
Jiarui Li, Xiaozhou Zhou, Lesong Jia, Weiye Xiao, Yu Jin,
and Chengqi Xue
User Cognitive Abilities-Human Computer Interaction Tasks Model . . . 194
Jinshou Shi, Wenzhe Tang, Ning Li, Yingwei Zhou, Tuoyang Zhou,
Ziang Chen, and Kaili Yin
xii Contents

The Fear of Learning Statistics in Latin America:

Computational Solutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200
Carlos Ramos-Galarza, Omar Cóndor-Herrera, Valentina Ramos,
Mónica Bolaños-Pasquel, Pamela Acosta-Rodas, Janio Jadán-Guerrero,
and Hugo Arias-Flores
PEST Approach to Managing the Bulgarian Media Ecosystem . . . . . . . 206
Lilia Raycheva
Implementation of Augmented Reality into Student Practical
Skills Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
Dana Dobrovská and David Vaněček
Multimodal Affective Pedagogical Agents for Different Types
of Learners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
Nicoletta Adamo, Bedrich Benes, Richard E. Mayer, Xingyu Lei,
Zhiquan Wang, Zachary Meyer, and Alyssa Lawson
Teaching E-learning for Students with Visual Impairments . . . . . . . . . . 225
Theresa Lobo
Gamification for Teaching - Learning Mathematics in Students
of Basic Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235
Jean Paul Molina-Villarroel, Cesar Guevara,
and Roilys Suarez-Abrahante
Social Activity of Student Youth: Experience of Pavlo Tychyna
Uman State Pedagogical University . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
Oksana Kravchenko, Natalia Koliada, Viktoria Isachenko,
and Inna Honchar
Gamification Teaching for an Active Learning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 247
Omar Cóndor-Herrera, Pamela Acosta-Rodas,
and Carlos Ramos-Galarza
Intelligent Painting Education Mode Based on Individualized
Learning Under the Internet Vision . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 253
Yunqing Xu, Yi Ji, Peng Tan, Qiaoling Zhong, and Ming Ma
Active Methodologies for Physics Teaching Through Virtual
Learning Environments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 260
Juan Polo-Mantuano and Mireya Zapata
Mental Rotation Ability and Preferences in Vocational Education . . . . . 267
Oleksandr Burov, Evgeniy Lavrov, Olga Siryk, Olena Hlazunova,
Svitlana Shevchenko, Oleksii Tkachenko, Svitlana Ahadzhanova,
Karen Ahadzhanov-Honsales, and Oleksandr Viunenko
Contents xiii

Educational Technological Game for Children’s Education . . . . . . . . . . 273

Omar Cóndor-Herrera and Carlos Ramos-Galarza
Mining Students’ Topics of Interest and Innermost Feelings
Through Confession Pages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 279
Hoang Huu Son, Dong Thi Ngoc Lan, Ngo Thanh Hoang,
Dao Minh Tam, Pham Thi Phuc, and Tran Thi Huong
Using a Video Camera to Obtain Quantitative Measurements
for Distance Flexibility Training . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 286
Oksana Isaeva, Anna Konurina, Yura Boronenko, Vladimir Zelensky,
and Yelena Gudoshnik
Hackathon-Edu: A Global Competitiveness Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . 294
Gabriela Tapia-González, Rodolfo Martínez-Gutiérrez,
and Fabiola Tapia-González
Frequency Weighting of Student Categories in Quadrants
for Remote Higher Education Under COVID 19 Pandemic Era . . . . . . 301
Ernesto Hernández, Zury Sócola, Tania Choque, Abraham Ygnacio,
and Walter Hernández

Intelligence, Technology and Analytics

Know-How Transfer and Production Support Systems to Cultivate
the Internet of Production Within the Textile Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . 309
Florian Brillowski, Hannah Dammers, Hannah Koch, Kai Müller,
Leon Reinsch, and Christoph Greb
Data-Driven Fault Classification Using Support Vector Machines . . . . . 316
Deepthi Jallepalli and Fatemeh Davoudi Kakhki
Semi-quantitative Model for Risk Assessment
in University Laboratories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323
Anastasia Kalugina and Thierry Meyer
An Evaluation of Tools for Identifying Vulnerabilities in Open
Source Dependencies for NodeJS Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 330
Kevin Holmes and Amir Schur
Low-Cost Cyber-Physical Production Systems Based on IEC 61499
for Analog Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 336
Gustavo Caiza, Sergio Bustos, Carlos A. Garcia, and Marcelo V. Garcia
Performance Evaluation of the Nvidia Jetson Nano Through
a Real-Time Machine Learning Application . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 343
Sebastián Valladares, Mayerly Toscano, Rodrigo Tufiño,
Paulina Morillo, and Diego Vallejo-Huanga
xiv Contents

Preliminary Analysis on the Recruitment Process for Domestic

Violent Extremist Groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 350
Brendan Reilly and April Edwards
Evaluation of Domestic Market Development in Ukraine . . . . . . . . . . . . 357
Nazariy Popadynets, Inna Irtyshcheva,
Lyudmila Shymanovska-Dianych, Olesia Diugowanets,
Iryna Hryhoruk, Iryna Kramarenko, Tetiana Husakovska,
Yevheniya Boiko, Nataliya Hryshyna, Olena Ishchenko,
Nataliya Tubaltseva, and Dariya Archybisova
Cyber Safety in the Digital Educational Environment: External
and Internal Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 364
Oleksandr Burov, Yuliya Krylova-Grek, Evgeniy Lavrov, Olena Orliyk,
Svitlana Lytvynova, and Olga Pinchuk
Autonomous Robot for Plastic Waste Classification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 371
Janusz Bobulski and Mariusz Kubanek
Ambient Assisted Living: Benefits of the Technology Development . . . . 377
Hugo Arias-Flores, Janio Jadán-Guerrero, Omar Cóndor-Herrera,
and Carlos Ramos-Galarza
Construction Method of User Mental Model in Interaction Design . . . . 382
Bingqing Yang, Haiyan Wang, and Junkai Shao
An Approach to Determine Short- and Long-Term Work Ability
in Smart Work System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 388
Otilia Kocsis, George Papoulias, Nikos Fakotakis,
and Konstantinos Moustakas
Health and Activity Monitoring Using Smart Devices to Support
the Self-management of Health Behavior . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395
Janet Wesson, George Mujuru, and Lester Cowley
Challenges in Smart Healthcare for Physical Rehabilitation . . . . . . . . . 402
Jorge-Luis Pérez-Medina, Karina Jimenes-Vargas,
Patricia Acosta-Vargas, Mario González,
and Wilmer-Danilo Esparza-Yánez
Computer Vision Based Rehabilitation Assistant System . . . . . . . . . . . . 408
Nudpakun Leechaikul and Siam Charoenseang
Human Centered Design in One New Hospital in Canada:
A Lived Experience of Healthcare Professionals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 415
Zakia Hammouni and Tiiu Poldma
Method of Similarity Implementation for the Decision-Making
Process in Small Towns Transportation Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 421
Peeter Lorents and Maryna Averkyna
Contents xv

Combining Objective Key Results, Net Promoter Score and Social

Return of Investment to Measure Project Impact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 428
Rui Belfort, Farley Fernandes, and Fábio Campos
User Experience in Virtual Environments: Relationship Between
Cybersickness Issues and the Optical Aspects of the Image
by Contrast Levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 434
Fabio Campos, Marcia Campos, Tulio Silva, and Marnix Van Gisbergen
User Experience Goals for Cognitive Systems in Smart
Business Buildings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 440
Eija Kaasinen, Susanna Aromaa, Maarit Halttunen, Susanne Jacobson,
Inka Lappalainen, Marja Liinasuo, Maaria Nuutinen,
and Reetta Turtiainen
Influence of Environmental Information on Users’ Purchase
Intentions for Electric Two-Wheelers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 447
Fei-Hui Huang
Paper-Based Electronics for Brain-Machine Interface
Home Supercomputer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 454
Nicolás Lori, Miguel Pais-Vieira, Manuel Curado, and José Machado
Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) in Energy: Co-citation Analysis
Using Network and Cluster Visualization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 460
Giovanna Andrea Pinilla-De La Cruz, Rodrigo Rabetino,
and Jussi Kantola

Computational Modeling and Simulation

AI-augmented Human Performance Evaluation for Automated
Training Decision Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 469
Anthony Palladino, Margaret Duff, Alexander Bock, Tracy Parsons,
Rody Arantes, Bernard Chartier, Carl Weir, and Kendra Moore
Program in Visual Basic Language: A Simplified Procedure
for Thermal Treatment Evaluation of Packaged Foods . . . . . . . . . . . . . 476
William Rolando Miranda Zamora, Manuel Jesus Sanchez Chero,
Marcos Timaná-Alvarez, Veronica Seminario-Morales,
César Niño-Carmona, Nelly Leyva, Leandro Alonso Vallejos More,
Lucio Ticona-Carrizales, and Abraham Ygnacio
The Trojan Horse Experiment: Fourth Phase in the Research
with City Information Modeling (CIM) and Design Ethics . . . . . . . . . . . 482
José Beirão and Gonçalo Falcão
xvi Contents

Monitoring Implementation for Spiking Neural Networks

Architecture on Zynq-7000 All Programmable SoCs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 489
Mireya Zapata, Bernardo Vallejo-Mancero, Byron Remache-Vinueza,
and Jordi Madrenas
Increasing Competitiveness of Economic Regions: Prospects
for Innovative Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 496
Nazariy Popadynets, Oleh Yakymchuk, Alina Yakymchuk,
Rostyslav Bilyk, Inna Irtyshcheva, Iryna Hryhoruk, Kateryna Blishchuk,
Yevheniya Boiko, Nataliya Hryshyna, Ihor Sirenko, Yuriy Yakymchuk,
and Serhiy Serhiychuk
Artificial Neural Networks in Art - Face Colorization
and 3D Visualization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 503
Man Lai-man Tin
Analysis and Modeling of Factor Determinants for Ukraine Hotels
and Tourist Sphere . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 509
Nazariy Popadynets, Iryna Hryhoruk, Mariana Popyk, Olha Bilanyuk,
Oleksandr Halachenko, Inna Irtyshcheva, Natalia Batkovets,
Nataliia Lysiak, Yevheniya Boiko, Nataliya Hryshyna, Mariana Bil,
and Tetiana Nezveshchuk-Kohut
Human Error Related Design of Fire Protection Control System
in Civil Aircraft Cockpit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 516
Han Kun and Zhu Hongyu

Humans and Artificial Systems Complexity

Human-Artificial Systems Collaboration in Service Innovation
and Social Inclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 527
Afnan Zafar and Marja Ahola
Image Processing-Based Supervised Learning to Predict Robot
Intention for Multimodal Interactions Between a Virtual Human
and a Social Robot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 533
S. M. Mizanoor Rahman
Towards Agent Design for Forming a Consensus Remotely
Through an Analysis of Declaration of Intent in Barnga Game . . . . . . . 540
Yoshimiki Maekawa, Tomohiro Yamaguchi, and Keiki Takadama
Aspect Fusion as Design Paradigm for Legal Information Retrieval . . . 547
Kurt Englmeier and Pedro Contreras
The Knowledge Acquisition Analytical Game Framework
for Cognitive System Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 554
Francesca de Rosa, Anne-Laure Jousselme, and Alessandro De Gloria
Contents xvii

Learning Vector Quantization and Radial Basis Function

Performance Comparison Based Intrusion Detection System . . . . . . . . . 561
Joël T. Hounsou, Pamela Bélise Ciza Niyomukiza, Thierry Nsabimana,
Ghislain Vlavonou, Fulvio Frati, and Ernesto Damiani
Economic Diagnostics and Management of Eco-Innovations:
Conceptual Model of Taxonomic Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 573
Alina Yakymchuk, Andriy Valyukh, Inna Irtyshcheva, Valentyna Yakubiv,
Nazariy Popadynets, Iryna Hryhoruk, Kostiantyn Pavlov, Olena Pavlova,
Yuliia Maksymiv, Yevheniya Boiko, Nataliya Hryshyna,
and Olena Ishchenko
Interactive Human-Computer Theoretical Model of Editorial Design
with Augmented Reality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 580
Carlos Borja-Galeas and Cesar Guevara
Benefit of Developing Assistive Technology for Writing . . . . . . . . . . . . . 586
Galo Molina-Vargas, Hugo Arias-Flores, and Janio Jadán-Guerrero
Characteristics of Lower Limb Position Perception in Response
to Environmental Information in Individuals with Low Vision . . . . . . . 591
Tadashi Uno
Co-creative Social Media Features on Video Platforms, and Their
Impact on Customer Relationships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 597
Akane Matsumae and Yumeng Zhang

Technology, Materials and Inclusive Human Systems

Creating Embedded Haptic Waveguides in a 3D-Printed Surface
to Improve Haptic Mediation for Surface-Based Interaction . . . . . . . . . 605
Ahmed Farooq, Hong Z. Tan, and Roope Raisamo
Preliminary Investigations on Subcutaneous Implantable Microchip
Health and Security Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 612
Mona A. Mohamed and Beenish Chaudhry
An Interdisciplinary Participatory Research for Co-creating
a Relaxed Performance in a Theater Environment in Montreal . . . . . . . 619
Zakia Hammouni, Walter Wittich, Eva Kehayia, Ingrid Verduyckt,
Natalina Martiniello, Emilie Hervieux, and Tiiu Poldma
Health Emergency and Digital Shopping Experience: A New Era
of Retail Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 626
Stefania Camplone and Emidio Antonio Villani
xviii Contents

Combined Method for Accessibility Evaluation in Tele-Rehabilitation

Platforms for Low Vision Users . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 632
Patricia Acosta-Vargas, Jorge-Luis Pérez-Medina, Gloria Acosta-Vargas,
Belén Salvador-Acosta, Wilmer Esparza, Karina Jimenes-Vargas,
and Mario Gonzalez
Bio-plastic: The Challenge of a Perpetual Material . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 639
Stefania Camplone
Design and Construction of a Prototype for Measuring the Thermal
Conductivity of Insulating Materials, Plastics and Metals According
to ASTM C177 with Staged Heating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 645
Alex Meza, Grimaldo Quispe, and Carlos Raymundo
Development of a Methodology for the Learning-Teaching Process
Through Virtual and Augmented Reality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 651
Stalyn Ávila-Herrera and Cesar Guevara
Electric Circuit Simulator Applying Augmented Reality
and Gamification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 657
Vinicio Burgos, Cesar Guevara, and Lorena Espinosa
Digital Transformation of Education: Technology Strengthens
Creative Methodological Productions in Master's Programs
in Education . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 663
Noemí Suárez Monzón, Janio Jadán-Guerrero, Maritza Librada Cáceres
Mesa, and María Verónica Andrade Andrade
Method for Assessing Accessibility in Videoconference Systems . . . . . . . 669
Patricia Acosta-Vargas, Javier Guaña-Moya, Gloria Acosta-Vargas,
William Villegas-Ch, and Luis Salvador-Ullauri
Co-creation of Pediatric Physical Therapy Environments:
Humanistic Co-design Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 676
Hadeel Alomrani, Rana Aljabr, Rneem Almansoury,
and Abduallah Alsinan

Applications and Future Trends

The Openness of Open Innovation in the Product
Development Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 685
Afnan Zafar
Mouse Tracking IAT in Customer Research: An Investigation
of Users’ Implicit Attitudes Towards Social Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 691
Merylin Monaro, Paolo Negri, Francesca Zecchinato,
Luciano Gamberini, and Giuseppe Sartori
Contents xix

Uncanny Valley in 3D Emoji: Investigating User Perceptions

of Realistic Representations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 697
Juhee Chung and Soojin Jun
Blended Design Strategies to Plan Again the New Territorial
Networking and Its Interconnections . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 703
Irene Fiesoli
Smart Retail and Phygital Customer Journey in the Kids
and Toys Stores . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 709
Benedetta Terenzi and Arianna Vignati
Co-design of Gesture-Based Arabic Sign
Language (ArSL) Recognition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 715
Abeer Al-Nafjan, Layan Al-Abdullatef, Mayar Al-Ghamdi,
Nada Al-Khalaf, and Wejdan Al-Zahrani
Developing an Application for Walking in Nature
for Post COVID-19 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 721
Yuko Hiramatsu, Atsushi Ito, Jinshan Luo, Madoka Hasegawa,
and Akira Sasaki
A Study on the Attitude and Practice of Chinese Teachers and
Students Towards VR Teaching for Foreign Language Learning . . . . . 728
Weihua Du and Zhongli Hu
Lean Manufacturing for Production Management and Strategic
Planning to Increase Productivity in SMEs Engaged
in Manufacturing Chemicals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 733
Hernan Zegarra-Mendez, Víctor Nuñez, and Carlos Raymundo
Implementation of Lean Manufacturing Tools to Improve the Flow
of Productivity in a Craft Shoe Workshop . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 740
Nicol Manrique, Stephanie Nuñez, Grimaldo Quispe,
and Carlos Raymundo
Gestalt Prototyping Framework - Evaluation Tool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 747
Daniel Ripalda, César Guevara, and Alejandra Garrido
Social Media Happiness Expression Through the Virtual Reality:
Cultural Differences on Instagram . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 753
Young Ae Kim and Qiuwen Li
Flexible Manufacturing Systems: A Methods Engineering
and Operations Management Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 760
María-Cristina Herrera-García and Claudia-Yohana Arias-Portela
xx Contents

Lean Manufacturing Production Management Model Under a Change

Management Approach to Enhance Production Efficiency of Textile
and Clothing SMEs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 766
Reddy Heredia-Mercado, Shaly Flores-Piñas, Pedro Chavez,
and Carlos Raymundo
Supporting Collective Intelligence of Human-Machine Teams
in Decision-Making Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 773
Alexander Smirnov and Andrew Ponomarev
Calculation of the Level of Service in the Gondola in Supermarkets . . . 779
Juan Ñaupari, Anghela Urbina, Grimaldo Quispe, and Carlos Raymundo
Using Drones for Tourism: Exploring Exciting Places in Ecuador . . . . . 786
Santiago Uribe-Montesdeoca, Hugo Arias-Flores, Carlos Ramos-Galarza,
and Janio Jadán-Guerrero
Visual Perception Based on Gestalt Theory . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 792
Zhiyuan Ye, Chenqi Xue, and Yun Lin
Maintenance Management Model for Cost Reduction by Applying
TPM Through a DMAIC Approach in SMEs in Service Sector . . . . . . . 798
Hugo Bazan-Torres, Fernando Maradiegue-Tuesta,
and Carlos Raymundo
Design of Travel Auxiliary Products and APP for People
with Mobility Impairments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 805
Wen Shao, Jiong Fu, and Yingjue Dai
Design of VR Games Safety Criteria Based on the Method
of Ergonomics and Behavior Simulation in Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 811
Wei Lu, Xiacheng Song, Hanjie Cao, and Binhong Zhai
Ergonomic Method for Redesigning Workstations to Reduce
Musculoskeletal Disorders Among Workers in Textile SMEs . . . . . . . . . 823
Brenda Miranda-Rodriguez, Luis Saenz-Julcamoro,
Edgardo Carvallo-Munar, Claudia Leon-Chavarri, and Carlos Raymundo
Design of a Semi-automatic Machine for Processing Ecological
and Antibacterial Bricks to Save Concrete Based on Polyethylene
and Copper Terephthalate Residues in Huancayo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 830
Antony Ibarra, Grimaldo Quispe, and Carlos Raymundo
Gaze Based Interaction for Object Classification in Reconnaissance
Missions Using Highly Automated Platforms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 836
Joscha Wasser, Marten Bloch, Konrad Bielecki, Daria Vorst,
Daniel Lopez, Marcel Baltzer, and Frank Flemisch
Contents xxi

Comparative Analysis of Emotional Design Based on Web of Science

and CNKI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 843
Yongkang Chen, Yuhao Jiang, Xingting Wu, and Renke He
Design of a Ventilation System for the Uchucchacua-Buenaventura
Oyón-Lima Mine . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 849
Luis Espinoza, Grimaldo Quispe, and Carlos Raymundo
Designed for Designer: An Online Co-design Workshop . . . . . . . . . . . . 856
Di Zhu, Anni Li, Nan Wang, Jiazhen Wu, and Wei Liu
Design of Equipment for a Forage and Agricultural Waste
Processor to Improve Livestock Feed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 862
Abelardo Limaymanta, Carlos Cantalicio, Grimaldo Quispe,
and Carlos Raymundo
CAD/CAE Tools and Additive Manufacturing to Reduce
the Impacts of Critical Equipment Shutdown
on Production Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 869
Byron Remache-Vinueza, Kévin Dávila-Cárdenas, and Mireya Zapata
Comparison of Accessibility Tools for the Evaluation
of E-Commerce Websites . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 876
Freddy Paz, Freddy A. Paz, Arturo Moquillaza, Luis Collantes,
Juan Jesús Arenas, and Daniela Villanueva
Research on Inheritance and Innovation of Bamboo Weaving
Technology in Zhejiang Province Based on Cultural Gene
Extraction and Transformation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 882
Yixiang Wu and Xinhui Kang
Automation Design for the Dispersion of Pigments
and Homogenization of Water-Based Paint . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 889
Estefano Arias-Ponce, Blanca Topón-Visarrea, and Mireya Zapata
Analyzing Selfie Opportunities and Trends in a Chinese Context . . . . . 895
Ruilin Wang, Dawei Wang, Ziwei Zhang, Di Zhu, and Wei Liu
Analysis of the Activation Volume and the Pressure Resistance
for Handling Kinetic of Processing Food . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 901
William Rolando Miranda Zamora, Nelly Leyva,
Manuel Jesus Sanchez Chero, Marcos Timaná-Alvarez,
Leandro Alonso Vallejos More, Priscila Estelita Luján Vera,
and Marlon Martín Mogollón Taboada

Author Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 907

Human-Autonomy Teaming
 Anticipating Human Decision for an Optimal
Teaming Between Manned and Unmanned
Systems

Jane Jean Kiam, Marius Dudek, and Axel Schulte(&)

Institute of Flight Systems, Bundeswehr University Munich,

Werner-Heisenberg-Weg 39, 85579 Neubiberg, Germany
{jane.kiam,marius.dudek,axel.schulte}@unibw.de

Abstract. We propose to include “anticipatory thinking” ability to predict

human decision-making in a manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) system. In
particular, the prediction will be leveraged to augment the “preparedness” of the
unmanned vehicles in reacting optimally (with minimal delay) to the subsequent
tasks to be assigned by the human operator. With this, we intend to reduce the
persistent use of the automated suggestions of complex plans for task assign-
ment, often exploited to compensate for human incapacity in “looking ahead”.
By doing so, we optimize human autonomy in decision making for complex
MUM-T operations.

Keywords: Human decision-making
Manned-unmanned teaming
Prospect

theory
Cognitive agent
Anticipatory thinking

1 Background and Motivation

Manned-unmanned teaming (MUM-T) can be exploited for future combat systems

[1, 2] and first-responder operations [3]. To state the obvious, the inclusion of
unmanned vehicles (UV) as enablers in these applications is to exploit them for per-
forming routines and dangerous tasks. Leveraging the increasing autonomy of UV,
simpler mission segments such as point-to-point navigation can be executed
autonomously.
Most UV in MUM-T rely on tasking by either the human driving the manned
system or a remote human operator. In this article, we refer to this human actor simply
as an “operator”. Tasking for the UV can either be performed either with a longer-term
plan for routine operations, or sequentially by reacting to observations, which is more
suitable in an agile environment. The latter, which we refer to as “reactive tasking”, can
be challenging, especially if the environment is hazardous and uncertain. Furthermore,
in such an environment, anticipatory thinking [4] can be beneficial so that the UV can
be better prepared for coping with the operator’s sequential decisions. However,
reactive tasking of the UV with anticipatory thinking can be overwhelming for the
operator, since human has a bounded level of iterative (rational) reasoning [5], causing
therefore delays or effectiveness in looking ahead. Having recognized this limitation,
the operator of a MUM-T is often assisted by an automated cognitive agent [3],

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021

D. Russo et al. (Eds.): IHSI 2021, AISC 1322, pp. 3–9, 2021.
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-68017-6_1
4 J. J. Kiam et al.

specifically for looking ahead to anticipate unfolding events by suggesting a plan of a

longer time horizon, but will, in the long run, cause an overreliance and complacency
of the operator, i.e. the suggested plans can be conveniently assumed the perfect
“solutions”.
In this article, we propose to include as an ability of the cognitive agent, the
anticipation of human decision-making, in order to “prepare” the UV for optimal
teaming (i.e. minimal delay in response to hazard and opportunities) with the manned
system. By doing so, reactive tasking of the UV by the operator (without suggestion of
longer-term plans) is still possible, without depriving the MUM-T system of efficiency
and safety. Furthermore, by avoiding persisting and automated suggestions of longer-
term plans, we believe this new concept of a cognitive agent gears the MUM-T system
towards more respect of human autonomy. As a straightforward example, if a team of
UV is tasked by the operator to accompany the manned system to carry out a search and
rescue (SAR) mission in an unexplored area, the cognitive agent will place the UV with
camera to the leading positions of the team, as it predicts that the operator will want to
perform reconnaissance once the MUM-T system comes closer to the unexplored area.

2 Scope and Scenario

Fig. 1. A typical MUM-T system.

MUM-T represents the interoperability of manned and unmanned vehicles destined to

pursue the same mission goal(s) [3]. In future MUM-T systems, the unmanned vehicles
are no longer simply remote-controlled, but are instead equipped with onboard intel-
ligence, capable of carrying out the assigned tasks in a highly automated manner [3].
Fig. 1 depicts a typical example using the semantical graphical representation for
human-autonomy teaming (HAT) defined in [6], meant for a top-down systematic
description of a “human-in-the-loop” system design. An onboard cognitive agent
collocates with and supervises each UV. Each agent-UV ensemble in the Tools is in a
hierarchical relationship with or supervised by either the onboard operator of the
manned system (e.g. pilot for an airplane, driver for a car, etc.); the cognitive agent in
Worker is in a heterarchical relationship with the operator, i.e. it works as an associate
of the onboard operator. This associate, as explained in [6], helps to correct human
 Anticipating Human Decision 5

errors, moderate mental workload and increase situation awareness for the human. In
this work, we propose to equip this associate cognitive agent with anticipatory thinking
in order to augment the “preparedness” of the UV to react efficiently to the (human)
operator’s future decisions. We briefly present two scenarios with agile and uncertain
environment in which this concept can be beneficial for MUM-T while avoiding high
workload on the operator without compromising human autonomy in decision making.

2.1 Scenario A: First-Responder Rescue Mission

MUM-T system can be leveraged to increase operational efficiency in a rescue mission.
As shown in Fig. 2, the piloted helicopter enters an unknown area (in terms of the
gravity of the disaster). On the left, distressed human voice is detected by the sensitive
microphone that UAV-Mic carries, while no information is available from the area of
the right. The pilot onboard of the helicopter task the UAV to divide into two teams and
search for survivors in both areas. The associate cognitive agent onboard of the heli-
copter assists the pilot in coordinating the UAV for the task. Based on its prediction,
the pilot is likely to decide for, as the next steps, counselling and medical relief for
distressed people found in the area on the left, as well as for information communi-
cation with the base control station. Therefore, the associate cognitive agent assigns at
least one UAV-C (a UAV with counseling ability), one UAV-M (a UAV that carries
first-aid medical supplies) and the UAV-5G to be deployed in that area.

a. MUM-T in a rescue mission. b. MUM-T in a military air operation.

Fig. 2. Applicable scenarios for MUM-T.

2.2 Scenario B: Military Air Operation

A fighter pilot (see grey aircraft in Fig. 3) deployed in a MUM-T system has to guide
several unmanned aircraft in addition to its own in a highly dynamic environment. The
blue UAV is assigned with the suppression of enemy air defenses, while the green
UAV is tasked to keep the airspace clear of enemy aircraft (in red) and the yellow UAV
for the investigation of two yellow buildings. The cognitive agent that assists the pilot
in coordinating the UAV has a certain degree of freedom in the overall formation (i.e.
waypoint planning) of the UAV. The ideal positions of the UAV depend on the
subsequent tasks to be assigned by the pilot. Potential tasks could be to engage one of
6 J. J. Kiam et al.

the investigated buildings, to support the air-to-air UAV or to return to base. If the
pilot’s decision for subsequent tasks can be predicted, the prediction can be exploited
for planning the waypoints to coordinate the UAV, so that they are strategically well
positioned for optimal “preparedness” for the subsequent tasks.

3 Consideration of Human Decision-Making in MUM-T

In this section, a model of human decision-making is provided. Some insights on the

use of the model for anticipatory thinking for the cognitive agent in Worker in Fig. 1 is
provided.

3.1 Model of Human Decision-Making

Prospect Theory that has earned Kahneman and Tversky their Nobel Prize [7] proposes
a human decision-making model that is considered to be more relevant than the pre-
viously most popular model based on the expected utility. The underlying observations
that have motivated the development of Prospect Theory are:
1. Human measures losses and gains subjectively, by relating to a certain reference
point;
2. Human sees losses more severely than gains;
3. Human tends to overweigh low probabilities and underweigh high probabilities.
Although the Prospect Theory was developed to reason on wealth and welfare,
these three aspects above are highly relevant for predicting in real-time human
decision-making in a MUM-T system, since 1) total rationality or objectivity is difficult
to achieve during a time-critical operation, 2) loss of asset, especially loss of life
represents an increasingly severe societal impact, and 3) the optimism level of each
human is different. The prospect of a strategy VðrÞ of decision r is used and is given
by [7]:
X
V ðrÞ ¼ pðxÞ
vðDxÞ; ð1Þ
fx2Xg

where v is a value defined on the differential outcome Dx with respect to a reference

point (e.g. current world state or outcome of another decision choice), and p is the
decision weighting function, that is a transformation of the probabilities of the
outcomes.

3.2 Applicability in MUM-T

In the MUM-T scenarios described in Sect. 2, Dx can represent 1) the distance to the
risk areas, 2) the negative distance to a goal position (so that an increase of it is
considered a gain), 3) the level of situation awareness (e.g. information coverage), etc.
Tab. 1 suggests the gains Dx can represent in each of the scenarios in Sect. 2.
 Anticipating Human Decision 7

Table. 1. Possible modelling of Dx for each scenario

Scenario A Scenario B
Δx Dx1 : Lives to rescue Dx1 : Distance of the UV to enemy
Dx2 : Security of infrastructure Dx2 : Distance of the fighter jet to enemy
Dx3 : Safety of the rescuer Dx3 : Negative threat level of ground-to-air
Dx4 : Security of rescuer’s assets attack from the enemy
Dx5 : Situation awareness on the Dx4 : Situation awareness on target(s)
disaster area Dx5 : Remaining (workload) effort of the pilot
Dx6 : Remaining operator’s (workload)
effort of the pilot

According to [8], the value function can be expressed by a two-part power function,
where a and b are the gain and loss satiation coefficient respectively, and k is the
coefficient of loss aversion:

Dxa ; if Dx  0
vðDxÞ ¼ ð2Þ
kðDxÞb ; otherwise:

[9] states that, if the value function in Eq. (1) is “riskless”, i.e. vðDxÞ is increasing
and monotonic, and v exhibits loss aversion, i.e. jvjvððjDx jÞj
j DxjÞj \1, then k [ 1, and
a ¼ b [ 0. Figure 3 shows how the value function behaves with different coefficients.
The value over gain (concave) and loss (convex) are flatter as the value of a ¼ b
decreases (see Fig. 3a), while for the same gain and loss, if a ¼ b, the factor of jvjvð j DxjÞj
ðj DxjÞj
equals exactly k. The knowledge on the behavior of v makes it easier to devise an
expert-driven model of the value function. For instance, the value function on Dx1 for
Scenario 2 as described in Table 1 can bear a much smaller k than Dx2 , since the loss of
a piloted fighter jet is considered more severe than the loss of a UV.

a. , with varying and b. , with varying .

Fig. 3. Behavior of the value function with different coefficients

8 J. J. Kiam et al.

The decision weight in Eq. (1) transforms the probability of an outcome pðxÞ:

pðxÞc
pðxÞ ¼ 1 ; ð3Þ
ðpðxÞc þ ð1  pðxÞÞc Þc

where c is a coefficient that characterizes the transformation and can take a different
value for the “gain” and the “loss” outcomes. p can be used to quantify the optimism
(or pessimism) level of the human, which can be “learned” by observing behavior of
the human in different scenarios. Otherwise, c can also represent the reliability of the
predicted probability distribution of the outcome.
However, the Prospect Theory is usually used for predicting a single-criterion
human decision-making. For a realistic prediction of the operator’s decision, the listed
criteria in Table 1 must be considered collectively. This is possible by applying the
generalization of the Prospect Theory to a multiple-criteria decision-making as
described in [10].

4 Discussion and Future Work

In this work, a concept is proposed to augment the “preparedness” of the UV in a

MUM-T system by anticipating human decision-making. With this concept, sequential
tasking of the UV by the operator can be performed without drop in overall efficiency
or safety, since with the ability of the cognitive agent to predict human decision-
making, the UV can be better “prepared” to respond to human decisions in a reactive-
tasking setting with minimal delay. Overreliance on lookahead plans suggested by an
automated planner can be avoided, reducing therefore human complacency and
automation bias [11]. The concept will be implemented and tested using the scenarios
described in Sect. 2. In particular, human-in-the-loop tests will be performed to eval-
uate the degree of respect for human autonomy in real-time decision-making [12]
compared to the previous approach that relies on suggestion of lookahead plans.
Nevertheless, we must be cautious against “sneaky” automation. More concretely,
while the cognitive agent coordinates the UV to execute the current task assigned by
the operator in view of also optimizing the UV’s preparedness for the predicted sub-
sequent task, the resulting world state can also indirectly influence the operator’s
subsequent decision. This must be taken into account in future work.

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anything so logical could influence the King. Much more potent with
such as he were the tears, and entreaties of the Pisans.” Those
tears, invisible and ample as the waters of life, Burgundio Lolo had
quoted to the King at Rome; and after all these months the memory
of the Pisan advocate pleaded successfully against the actual
influence of Savonarola.
At last a straw decided the unsteady balance. At a village called
Campana, or Cassino, near to Florence, the King heard of a cruel
raid committed by the Florentines upon the Pisan town of Pontevalle.
There had been French soldiers in the fort; but when the French
archers came up to the rescue they found the little place untenanted
save by dying men, wheeling birds of prey, and corpses. The King
was furious against the Florentines; yet it was with the lightness of
heart that follows the taking of a difficult decision that he set his
back against the town, “et gaiement s’en alla dedans Pise.”
 V.
History is not decided by oratory. The eloquence of Lolo, the
menaces of the Friar, had conspired with a momentary distress and
anger, to lodge the French in Pisa. It still remained to see what
Charles would do. The first move promised little; in order to guard
against a second surrender to the impulse of the moment Charles
sent a messenger to Florence, and promised to speak the final word,
only when he should have arrived in Lucca.
But if history is in fact decided by Necessity—that grim and
resolute Anankê who cuts the most different characters to her
pattern, making of a Louis XI., and a Henry V., so individual as
princes, no more, when once the coronation day is over, than able
continuers of the policy she imposes; if Necessity and the slow
evolution of ideas control the individual, and leave him scarce more
independent than the nail, which moves indeed, but only moves to
follow the control of the attracting magnet; yet it is not merely by
the unbroken sequence of Law that the world progresses. Comets
and cataclysms, plagues and earthquakes, and in the moral world,
sudden, fierce contagions of enthusiasm or ecstasy interrupt and
modify their course.
Driven by a momentary resentment, a gust of pity and
remembrance, into Pisa, Charles was no sooner in the city than the
King resumed his empire over the Man. He sent, as I have said, an
embassy to Florence, reassuring as best he could the potent and
wealthy city, putting off his answer, and asking meanwhile for an
instalment of money and three hundred lances. The Florentines sent
no money and only eighty lances, and Charles perceived that the
least extra strain would break the slender thread that still bound her
to the French. Henceforth he steeled his royal heart against impolitic
pity. It was in vain that he looked on the statue of himself upon the
bridge, embellished in sculpture, resolute, heroic, Saviour of the City,
trampling underfoot the Lion of Florence and the Viper of Milan. It
was in vain, that, at the entrance of the army, the little children of
Pisa dressed in white satin sown with fleur-de-lis rushed to the gates
to meet the soldiers, crying in their high, sweet, confident voices,
“Viva Francia!” It was in vain that, in the early morning, as the King
returned from the intenerating Sacrament of the Mass, he met in the
streets the fairest ladies of the town, barefoot, dishevelled, dressed
like slaves in coarse mourning garments, who dropped before him
on their knees, sighing and wailing for liberty.
The most that Charles could do was to defer, to temporize, to
vacillate; he could not be brought to pledge himself to more. He,
with a remnant of his army, was alone in an inimical country, subject
at any moment to encounter the forces of Venice, Milan, Spain, the
Emperor and the Pope; meanwhile Florence was his one efficient
friend. Florence to him had been a leal and honest ally; dare he
desert her? ought he to repay her sacrifice with ruin? And yet this
faithful Florence had behaved to Pisa in a fashion cruel and anti-
human beyond words. And Pisa also had trusted him; Pisa was
tenderly his friend. Could he fling the wounded hare which had
taken refuge under his royal mantle to the fierce eyes and gaping
jaws of the hound which served him?
The question wrung the conscience of the man. But, for the King,
the matter was easily decided. His first duty was to his country and
his troops; Florence could help him to reach the forces of Orleans in
safety and with some degree of glory; but Pisa could furnish no
active aid at all.
Meanwhile, the army had become fired with entirely different
convictions. Suddenly King Charles, the adored conqueror, the
second Charlemagne, the unlettered and ugly little captain whose
soldiers’ devotion so amazed the Milanese, beheld himself in the
midst of his troops almost without authority. The army, like one man,
rose and spoke on behalf of the Pisans.
Insulated in this shelter of Pisa, with the offended Florentines
continually harassing his outposts, with in front the fastnesses of the
Apennines, and (God alone knew where) the five-toothed Trap of the
League into which his little force must fall—in this terrible
complication Charles beheld himself menaced by no less than the
mutiny of his own army. And for what? Not on account of the light
head and imprudent heart that had brought this handful of soldiers
to fight such fearful odds. This rebellion was inspired purely by the
pity inspired by men whose situation was certainly less hazardous
than the peril of their indignant champions.
But all day long the army surged in front of the palace clamouring
“Liberty! liberty!” in more virile voices than the Pisans’. The army
infected the Court; and one day, when the King sat playing draughts
alone with M. de Piennes, forty or fifty gentlemen of the Royal
household with their partisans forced their way into his chamber and
declaimed the woes of Pisa. Charles was indignant, and spoke so
roughly, that they took their persuasions and menaces elsewhere.
Even the poor archers, says Commines, moved by pity for the tears
and lamentations of the Pisans, threatened those whom they
believed persuaded the King to keep his oath at Florence. A private
archer menaced Briçonnet; others used rude language to Marshal de
Gié; and for three nights President Gannay durst not sleep in his
lodgings. The Frenchmen infected the Swiss; and these ferocious
giants, who a few days later should massacre man, woman, and
child at Pontremoli, proved themselves as passionate in their apology
for liberty. “Do you want money?” cried young Sallezart their
paymaster. “Is it mere money that leads you to this infamy? Take
rather our collars, our buckles, and our silver ornaments; stop our
wages and spend the sum of our arrears. We will pay you as well as
Florence! only set the Pisans free!”
In front of such enthusiasm Charles dared not avow a contrary
decision. It was in vain that Briçonnet and his party urged instant
fidelity to Florence. It was useless for Commines to observe that
keeping faith with Florence did not preclude a sentiment of tenderest
concern for Pisa, though after all, as the excellent diplomat
observed, “Divers cities in Italy that be in subjection are as evil-
entreated as she”—Sie ist nicht die Erste. Charles would promise
nothing to Pisa, nothing definite; but also he would make no vows to
Florence. He knew that the task before his little army was of the
sternest and of the severest, physically impossible to discouraged
and disaffected troops. Therefore he wrote to the Florentines saying
that he would give his answer, not at Lucca, but at Asti; and while,
in his heart, as we shall see, he meant to make the best of terms for
Pisa, and then restore her to the Florentines, he left for the nonce, a
French garrison in the city, three hundred picked men, difficultly
spared, under the governorship of Robert de Balzac Seigneur
d’Entragues. Thus, by a judicious temporizing, Charles hoped to
untie the Gordian knot. By turning his back on the difficulty he
thought he had suppressed it. And yet, were these three hundred
men left behind in Pisa, likely to become more obedient to an absent
monarch? Was Entragues, a man of Orleans’ household, Ligny’s
candidate, likely to carry out the views of Commines or of Briçonnet
against the avowed policy of his master and his patron? Charles, it
may be supposed, did not ask himself these questions. He bestowed
on Entragues, not merely the governorship of Pisa, but the
command of the frontier castles, and, without further hesitation, left
the town.
Robert de Balzac, Seigneur d’Entragues, was, says Commines, a
very ill-conditioned fellow. But a similar opinion has been entertained
by many historians for the most successful of their political
opponents. Robert de Balzac was the son of Jean d’Entragues and
his wife the sister of the famous Comte de Dammartin. Robert was a
very young man when the accession of Louis XI. brought about the
disgrace and exile of his all-powerful uncle. Every student of history
is familiar with the legend of that great disgrace: how the estates of
the unhappy minister were divided among the favourites at Court;
how his wife with her suckling child was left destitute and hunted
out of all her castles; how forsaken by all her friends, she wandered
like an excommunicated woman along the lanes of Dammartin
begging for her bread, until a poor day-labourer, Anthoine Le Fort,
took the abandoned Countess to his hovel and sheltered her and her
baby, eighteen months old, the starving little godson of the Duke of
Bourbon. Jeanne was still in the peasant’s hut; her husband had fled
for his life to Germany; when, as a last effort, Robert de Balzac, the
Count’s nephew, was sent to Court to plead his cause. It was no
light task to undertake. Men had been banished or odiously
imprisoned for entreating the pardon of Dammartin, and many well-
meaning friends would have dissuaded the young man. But he went
his way, arriving at Court about the end of 1466, and pleaded so
well that, after several audiences, the King recalled his uncle and
placed him high in favour.
Such was the man—about forty years of age, rhetorical, impulsive,
brave, generous, and audacious whom the King had left in command
at Pisa.
 VI.
The little army of Charles, dragging its artillery with lacerated
hands across the Apennines, cutting its way through the Venetian
forces at Fornovo, arrived at last in Asti; and, when August came,
the prospect of peace began to brighten before them. The King had
come to terms with Florence; and—granted the inevitable treachery
of the situation—the Treaty of Turin was not unkind. It is true that
the King agreed to restore the city of Pisa, with the other Tuscan
fortresses, to his ally of Florence; but on the express proviso of not
merely an amnesty for the Pisans. Henceforth they were to trade by
sea and land on equal terms with Florence, they were to enjoy the
same civil rights, their ancient arts of navigation and ship-building
were to be released from embargo, and their sequestered property
was to be given back to their possession. Charles had put his muzzle
on the hound; Pisa, though restored to her immemorial energy,
should henceforth be protected by the chief ally of Florence.
It was, in fact, a comparative equality that Charles proposed. Still
remaining an intrinsic part of the Florentine territory, as indeed the
safety and prosperity of that Republic demanded, henceforth the
admirable commercial situation of Pisa was not to be turned merely
to a Florentine profit, nor were the Pisans to be entirely governed for
Florentine ends and by a Florentine Council. In their government
henceforth the Pisans themselves should have a place and a right;
and the only exclusive advantage which the Florentines should retain
would be that superior dignity, that reserve of power, with which a
powerful mother-country inevitably controls her colonies and her
dependencies. Henceforth in law, in all that can be assessed by
franchise and by jurisdiction, the Pisans should stand on an equal
footing with the Florentines.
This decided, Charles, satisfied he had been unfair to nobody, on
August 16th, wrote from Turin a letter to Entragues, signed with his
own signature and countersigned by Orange, Vincula, Briçonnet, Gié,
De la Trémouille, Commines, and (somewhat to our surprise)
Piennes. This list of names is eloquent of the triumph of the
diplomatic party; Ligny is not there, nor D’Amboise nor Étienne de
Beaucaire, though these were among the nearest of the Royal
counsellors. It was, in fact, necessary that something should be
done at once. Orleans and his men were still starving in beleaguered
Novara; Montpensier and the army were fighting at desperate odds
in Naples. Peace with Florence would immediately place in the hands
of the King 70,000 ducats and 250 men-at-arms;[131] besides
releasing the soldiers in Pisa, Murrone, Leghorn, Sarzana, Pietra
Santa, and Librafatta, who with the Florentine contingent would be
an efficient succour to Montpensier. But Florence would not pay the
money until the fortresses were in her hand.
The King’s letter to Entragues arrived in Pisa on the 29th of
August. “You may feel,” the letter ran,[132] “on account of your oath,
a certain difficulty in placing the new Citadel of Pisa in other hands
than ours, but we absolve and discharge you of that oath, and
command you, so soon as you receive this letter, incontinent to
deliver the said Citadel of Pisa into the hand of the Commissioners of
Florence, provided that one or any of our Councillors assure you that
the Government of Florence have accorded and agreed to our
Articles.”
“A cause du serment que vous avez fait, vous pourriez différer de
ne mettre la dicte Citadelle neufve de Pise en aultres mains que les
nostres.” This phrase conveys the suggestion that on leaving Pisa,
Charles had promised a permanent French protection to the city. At
least it seems clear that Entragues had sworn to yield his position
only to the French.
These three months Entragues and his men had lived as the
saviours of Pisa with the Pisans, feted by the citizens, lodged not
only in the citadel but in the palace of the Medici upon Lung’ Arno;
no longer an insignificant portion of the motley hosts of France, but
the beloved guests and masters of this exquisite Southern city. They
had the advantage of the port from which to ship a succour to or
from the armies in the South; they enjoyed the great pine-woods of
the sea, full of game for hunting; they had grown to love the wide,
soft views of fertile plains bounded by a dim line of blue mountains
where their comrades held the frontier castles. The position of the
French in Pisa was not only felicitous, but strong; and they were
required to abandon it into the hands of the Florentines, allies, it is
true, of their king, but to them desperate and deadly enemies with
whom, in defiance of the truce, they had continually waged an
aggravated and embittering guerilla war of raids and plunder. And
these three months, which had increased the original suspicion and
dislike which the French army entertained of Florence, had been
spent in befriending and helping the Pisans, for whom even at the
first they had felt so divine a rage of pity, and whom they were now
commanded to betray. Most of the men had probably made relations
in the town. Entragues as we know from Guicciardini, was much in
love with, and probably deeply influenced by, the daughter of Messer
Luca del Lante; and a little later he married either this or some other
Pisan lady, for Marin Sanuto speaks of San Cassano, the Pisan
Ambassador at Venice, as “el cugnato d’Andrages.” Thus passion, no
less than resentment, and the sense of well-being as well as
compassion bound Entragues to Pisa. Add to this, incredible as it
may seem, the sentiment of loyalty; for long as was the reign of
Louis XI., it had not been long enough to extirpate the feudal idea,
and Entragues, although the subject of the King, felt himself in a far
more intimate degree the vassal of Orleans, and the lieutenant of
Ligny. Now, as I have said, the names of Orleans and Ligny are
conspicuously absent from the signatures below the letter of the
King. To yield Pisa would have been to reverse their policy; and it is
possible (to Commines, Guicciardini, Giulini, Porto Venere, and other
contemporaries, it appeared quite certain) that Orleans or Ligny
wrote to Entragues, and bade him resist the decision of the King.
This much at least is sure: Entragues refused to yield the fortresses.
Vainly the King reiterated his urgent letters—imploring letters, still
preserved in the Florence Archives under the dates of the 29th and
31st of August, the 25th of September, the 1st and 22nd of October
—letters, beseeching, commanding the evacuation of the garrisons,
but all in vain. Not only Pisa, but Sarzana, Pietra Santa, Librafatta,
and Murrone, obstinately held out against the royal mandate; only
the Governor of Leghorn, on the 17th of September, yielded to the
entreaties of his sovereign. Meanwhile in Naples, in Gaeta, Taranto,
and Atella, in all the desolate villages of the wild Abbruzzi, the
famished and abandoned army looked northwards, in vain, day after
day across the mountains. Winter began to whistle shrilly across the
windy hills; blue mists and subtle fevers rose out of the marshy
valleys; corn failed, and a cruel famine began to devastate the land;
and still the promised reinforcements never came. Of that gallant
army nearly every soldier should perish by hunger, shipwreck, or
malaria; for the troops that were to bring them a succour out of
Tuscany never left the cities where they dwelt.
On the 18th of September, Entragues drew up a formal treaty with
the Signory of Pisa. If in three months the King did not re-enter
Tuscany, he bound himself to evacuate the citadel, and leave it in
the hands of Pisa. Meanwhile they were to supply him every month
with the two thousand ducats necessary to pay and provision the
garrison; and on his abandonment of the fortress they were to
purchase his artillery and to give him the sum of 20,000 (or as
Sanuto has it, 30,000) ducats for himself. These terms were not
excessive: the Florentines a few years ago had cheerfully paid
150,000 ducats as the price of Pietro Santa, a less important place.
It was, however, as much as Pisa could pay: and to raise the sum
the ladies of Pisa cheerfully sold the brightest of their jewels. And
the Pisans in their gratitude for the staunchness and moderation of
Entragues awarded him a large estate, newly confiscated from the
Florentines, and a palace in the city. “It cannot be for money that he
did it,” remarks Guicciardini, “for certainly the Florentines would have
given him twice as much.” It was probably out of friendship and pity,
out of a genuine enthusiasm, out of an antiquated sentiment of
feudal devotion, combined with a desire to make a profit, that
Entragues committed this fatal and disastrous error.
 VII.
The Florentines were indeed in a peculiarly evil case; for Charles,
who was their ally, found himself powerless to procure them the
restitution of Pisa; and the Italian cities were resolved that, at no
risk, must Pisa pass to the ally of Charles. That post, in the hands of
the friends of France, would mean not merely a door always open
from Marseilles into Tuscany, but a continual supply of help to the
French garrisons in Naples. It was certain that Pisa must be kept, yet
Pisa was too weak to stand alone; plot and counter-plot darkened
the decision as to which great State the port of Pisa should belong.
From the 16th of September to the 14th of December, Captain
Fracassa, the Duke of Milan’s captain, held the town, dogged by the
jealous surveillance of a Venetian commissary, while Entragues and
his Frenchmen shut themselves inside the citadel. A few months
later the Sienese, Lucchese, and Genoese, united in a secret league
with Pisa against the Florentines. Milan and Venice wove a ceaseless
web of intrigue around the place. And it is quite possible that by
persisting in the citadel, Entragues may have been animated by a
lofty and heroic disobedience, hoping by his presence to maintain
Pisa in fidelity to France, and to prevent it from strengthening the
hands of the deadly enemies of his country.
Be this as it may, on the 1st of January, Entragues, having some
days ago assisted at the expulsion of Fracassa, placed the citadel in
the hands of the Pisan Signory. Great was the joy. Before the falling
of the night, the hated fortress, built by the Florentines to dominate
the town, was a shapeless heap of ruins. New money was struck,
bearing the head of Charles VIII.; and salvo on salvo of artillery rang
right across the plain to the very walls of Florence, announcing with
a threat the dawn of the New Year, which had begun with liberty in
Pisa.
Entragues himself, rich in the price of the gems of Pisan beauty,
retired for a month or two to Lucca, to conclude his traffic on the
fortresses. Pietra Santa he sold to Lucca, Sarzana to Genoa. He did a
good turn to Pisa, distributing them, for a round sum, among her
allies. But if he hoped that Pisa would maintain her independence by
the protection of these humbler friends he must easily have been
deceived: it was no later than the 26th of January when Messer
Gianbernardin del Agnolo was sent to Venice with a humble
message, entreating the august protection of that city for the young
Republic. It was Venice, rather than Milan, to whom the Pisans
turned—Venice preponderate now in the Peninsula, sheltering in
secret Pisa and Taranto under her wide-reaching ægis. During
thirteen years from this date the shifting fortunes, the greeds and
jealousies of the great Italian cities, fostered an artificial liberty in
Pisa. Thrown like a ball from Milan to Venice, Venice to Maximilian,
Max again to Venice, and thence to Cæsar Borgia, the unhappy
Republic described the whole circle of desperate hope, agonized
courage, misery, poverty, cunning, and betrayal. But with the
anguish of her heroic vicissitudes we have, at this moment, no
concern. The conduct of Entragues is our affair.
From that New Year’s Day all hope was over for the French in
Naples. Gaeta, Taranto, Atella, Ostia fell; Montpensier died of
heartbreak, the troops of fever; the great Guelf kingdom, the vision
of so many centuries, disappeared like fairy gold as soon as the
French had grasped it.
In France, the Count of Ligny, Entragues’ patron, was banished
from the Court in disgrace. “He is gone to his estates in Picardy,”
wrote Antonio Vincivera, “like a desperate creature. The King has
disgraced him because of the affair of Pisa.” Thus Entragues, in the
most effectual manner, had ruined his master’s chances: and though
in time Ligny was pardoned by the King, it was not in the lifetime of
his bride. In February, 1498, the daughter of the Mages expired, far
from the arms of Ligny, in her Nunnery at Naples.
But if the action of Entragues proved unfortunate to his friends, it
had a more deadly consequence to his enemies in Florence. The
party of Savonarola never recovered that failure of the French to
give back Pisa. For some time, amid famine, pestilence, and ruin,
they kept a weakening hold upon the city: “And still they stand in
hope of the things above,” mocks Maron Sanuto, in the spring of
1497, “and still they expect the coming of the King.” A year later, in
the May of 1498, Savonarola expiated that delusion by the flaming
penance of the stake. “Questa è la fine dei cattivi!” ejaculates the
Venetian Secretary.
Of all the actors in this complicated drama, the one person who
suffered not at all was that dishonoured liberator, Entragues himself.
He went back to live in Pisa where he seems to have displayed an
eminent and almost official dignity. Twice in moments of difficulty it
was proposed that Entragues should be sent as envoy to Venice, in
place of his brother-in-law; but the necessity passed away. He
remained in comfort and splendour in Pisa, where we read of his
receiving the Lucchese ambassadors and conducting the diplomacy
of the Republic. Pisa herself—unhappy devotee of liberty!—grew
poorer and ever poorer, a humble pensioner on Venetian bounty:
“They adore us,” remarks Sanuto with some fatuity, “and, of a verity,
they would starve without us.” But, shorn of all her territories as she
was, Pisa housed her liberator in a palace, and little did it matter to
this voluntary exile that his King declared a readiness to decapitate
him with royal hands. Meanwhile he remained the natural centre of
all dignity in Pisa. Here we catch a last glimpse of him in that sinister
spring of 1498 which witnessed in Florence the martyrdom of
Savonarola and in France the sudden death of Charles VIII. The
whirlwind that destroyed these mighty vessels allowed the idle straw
to float unharmed. “Entragues is back in Pisa,” writes Sanuto, “which
city is very poor now, having lost all her lands and subsisting only on
that which we afford her. He has returned some time from his visit to
Jerusalem. He lives with certain families in Pisa. He has money of his
own, and gives himself his pleasures.”
Five years later, when the eminence of Venice was dangerously
threatened by Italian jealousy, the Pisans began to look about for a
new Protector. “We will offer ourselves to the Devil,” they declared,
“rather than to Florence.” As a matter of fact they offered
themselves to Cæsar Borgia. They made very few conditions: two of
them are noteworthy in view of the present history:
 “The Pisans will bestow themselves upon Il Valentino if neither he
nor the Pope will ever make peace or truce with Florence.
“The new Duke must promise the city never to make any peace or
league with France.”

118. On October 30, 1403, he wrote to Florence and offered to

take one of the finest cities of the Milanese between Milan and
Piedmont if Florence would afford him (as indeed she offered to do)
an aid of 200 lances (Florence Archives, Filza II. dei Dieci 3).
Nothing appears to have come of this arrangement, which appears
to have been quite uncountenanced by the King.

119. See the preceding chapter on Valentine Visconti.

120. See a manuscript letter, I believe imprinted, in the Florence

Archives, Dieci di Balia, Classe x. dist. iii. No. 2, fo. 56: Istruzione
data a Pierotto Fidini: “Andrai a Pisa e sarai con Madonna Agnese e
dicele che tu ciai (ci hai) referito quello chella ta detta (ch’ella ti ha
detta) e, uditolo, noi siamo contenti seguitare il ragionemento, cioè
di contrarre con lei buona pace e sicura si che tra lei e noi non abbia
da essere guerra. Ma che, per fare contento il nostro popolo, e
mostrargli come cosa sia sicura che guerra non gli sia fatta a noi, è
bisogno chella metta nelle mani del Comune nostro quatro Castella
colle loro forteze, di quelle del Terreno di Pisa che per noi si
nomineranno et vogliendo ella fare questo noi verremo alla pace e
alla concordia realmente.
“Se ella dinegasse questo volere fare, avendo tu prima provato e
riprovato chella il consento, et ella dicesse di volere mettere le dette
castelle colle forteze loro in mano di terza persona fidata a lei ed a
noi, dirai in ultimo che noi siamo contenti. E se questo ella non
movesse a te ma stessesi pure in su la negativa—di non ci volere
dare le dette castella—allora moverai tu a lei dicendo che, poi che
non le dia piacere mettere le dette castella nelle mani nostre, chella
le metta nelle mani di terza persona di lei e di noi fidata. E che a
questo ella consente e volere che tu nommassi le castella, dirai
Livorno, Librafacta, Casena e Ponteacra. E se d’alcuni di questi ella
dicesse non potere fare, saprai quali. E in scambio loro dirai Palaia e
Marti se fossino più d’uno. Se ella ti venisse a domandare chi noi
porremo per terza persona, dirai che tu non ne sei informato ma che
tu ci lo riferirai, e se ella te ne nominasse alcuno, tiengli a mente. E
poi ne vieni subito alla presentia nostra, bene informato d’ogni cosa.
Et eziandio d’ogni novettà e cosa che sentire puoi” (April 17, 1404).

121. Dieci di Balia, Classe x. distinzione iii. No. 2, fo. 58. I

translate the whole of this interesting letter, hitherto, I believe,
unpublished:
“Istruzione data a Bonaccorso di Neri Pitti ... di quello che abbia
fare a Genova. April 28, 1404: Andrai a Genova. E sarai al
Governatore Messer Giovanni Bouciquaut, Luogo tenente del Re. E
lui saluterai affetuosamente per parte del Comune nostro.
“Di poi gli dirai come di questo mese egli manda al nostro comune
suo Ambasciatore Maestro Piero di Nantrone, suo secretario. Il
quale, per sua parte, ci notifica come egli aveva ricevuto per vasallo
e feudatorio del serenissimo Re di Francia Messer Gabriello Maria di
Visconti colla città di Pisa e col suo terreno che possedea. Et aveva
presa la sua difesa. E che darà per censo al detto Re ogni anno uno
cavallo e uno falcone pellegrino. Secondaria, ci prega che ci piacesse
per lo avvenire non offendere la città nil (ne il) terreno di Pisa
predetto, per rispetto del Serenissimo Re predetto. Et agli aveva
preveduto che di quelli di Pisa non sarebbe fatta alcuna offesa nel
nostro terreno.
“Tertio disse che noi possiamo colle nostre mercatantie usare et
trafficare a Pisa sicuramente come a Genova e in qualunque altra
terra del Re di Francia.
“Al quale Ambasciatore fu risposto in effecto che noi ci
maravigliamo et dolevamo, come essendo noi in guerra colla dicta
città di Pisa e con chi la teneva—et essendo noi al disopra per
liberare la detta città di tirannia et avendo rispetto quanto noi siamo
sempre frati, e siamo servidori della detta Corona di Francia; et egli
aveva presa la difesa loro contro a noi; e che questa non era
honesta cosa.
 “Alla seconda parte—di non offender—egli fu detto, che in ciò noi
terremo tali modi come vedessimo convenirsi e che non gli
darebbero dispiacere.
“E alla terza parte, diciamo che l’usare in luogo dove avesse a fare
alcuno dei Visconti di Milano non ci fu mai sicuro, non potrebbe
essere, considerati le inimicitii e odii antichi stati da detti Visconti al
comune nostro; Conchiudendo che sopra le dette cose noi faremo
risposta più pienamente al detto Signor Boucequaut per nostri
Ambassadori.
“E poi gli direte che—se mai noi avevamo maraviglia di alcuna
cosa—noi abbiamo dello avere gli, in nome del Serenissimo Re di
Francia, presa la difesa di Pisa e di quello che gli possiede, contro a
noi, figludi devotissimi della corona di Francia stati sempre, in favore
dei Pisani che sempre sono stati inimici della detta Corona. Et
maximamente essendo noi in guerra con Pisa e con chi la tiene, non
di nascosa ma pubblicamente e non di guerra hora cominciata ma
durata lungamente. Et essendo noi con nostro esercito in punto et in
ordine per esser intorno alla città di Pisa, sperando in brevissimo
tempo liberarla della Tirannia dei Visconti. E per poter meglio e con
maggiore forza cosa fare, abbiamo fatta grandissima spesa nello
apparecchio di questo, il quale possiamo dire per cagione sua avere
tutta perduta. E con lui di questo vi direste amichevolmente,
subiungnendo che noi ci rendiamo certi che quando il Serenissimo
Re di Francia e suo Consiglio sapranno questo, essi n’avranno
dispiacere come di cosa non honesta et iniusta. Il che non fu mia
usanza della Corona di Francia fare, et come di cosa fatta contro a i
suoi figluoli e divoti in favore di un Tiranetto e d’una città stata
sempre nemica della Corona di Francia. A presso gli direte, che, per
riverentia della Maestà Reale la quale egli rappresenta (come che
duro e malagevole ci paresse per le ragioni di sopra assegante) già
sono più di passati, noi facciamo commandamento a tutta nostra
gente d’arme e subditi: Che nel terreno di Pisa non dovesseno fare
alcuna offesa o cavalcata, e così è stata observata: la qual cosa fare
grava molto il nostro popolo per gli rispetti scripti di sopra. E mai
non si sarebbe creduto per nessuno Fiorentino che Messer
Bouciquaut il quale abbiamo reputato a noi e reputiamo amico
singolarissimo avesse mai fatta tale cosa contra a noi ma pensiamo
che questo sia proceduto da altri con velati colori che gli le hanno
dato a dividere; ma veramente questo che fatta ha non è cosa punto
honesta ne iusta ne utile ne honorevole per la Maestà Reale. E per
tutto il pregherate che gli piaccia, veduta la verità del fatto,
renonciare questo che ha ordinato in questa materia, ed essere
contento che noi possiamo seguitare contro a Pisa, e chi la tiene, la
nostra impresa. E questo sarà a lui honore et a noi, figluoli della
Corona, singolarissimo piacere.
“Alla parte del trafficare et usare a Pisa i nostri cittadini e
mercatanti colle loro mercatantie, direte che niuno cittadino se ne
fiderebbe mai ne vorebbero trafficare, essendo Pisa nella mani
d’alcuno dei Visconti, come ella è. E non che ivi—ma in alcuna terra
dove alcuno dei Visconti avesse a fare, per che essi sono antichi
nostri nemici e molte volte lanno (l’hanno) dimostrato—e romperci la
fede e pace e tregua; e bene lo vedevamo dove, essendo colligati
colla Serenissima Corona di Francia, il Conte di Vertus ci ruppe la
Pace e manifestò tradimento contra Dio a vergogna della detta
Corona, si che in modo alcuno non ci potremo mai fidare in luogo
done alcuno di loro avesse a fare.”
Here the document leaves politics to defend the quarrel of private
Florentine merchants in Genoa, to complain of the conduct of the
Pisans who have made a raid on to the lands of Messer Gherardo
d’Appiano, feudatory of Florence, and to complain of the
sequestration of the goods of certain Florentine merchants of Genoa.
The Ten also state that they are sending Messer Rinaldo Gianfigliazzi
and Messer Filippo Cosimi on an embassy to France to state their
case to the King. Fo. 60 instructs us that Boucicaut liberated the
sequestered goods and that a truce was signed between Florence
and Pisa for so long as Pisa should continue subject to the King of
France.

122. Brit. Museum MSS. 30, 669, f. 238; a treaty between the King
of France and G.M. Visconti, Lord of Pisa. The Tower and Fort of
Leghorn are to be given to the French, the King promising that no
one shall be allowed to enter Leghorn against the will of Gabriele
Maria Visconti. Also quod absit should the Castle of Leghorn be
taken by the enemies of the said Gabriele Maria, or should it in any
way rebel against him, the King and his Lieutenant bind themselves
to allow free passage to any army the said Gabriele Maria may send
for its subjection. The King explicitly promises that if any of Gabriele
Maria’s possessions be lost by the treachery of guards or other
means, he will make war upon the fraudulent possessors and
attempt their recovery. The King invests Gabriele Maria, with a gold
ring, in all his possessions save the Tower and Fort of Leghorn.

123. So far I have no documentary evidence for these articles,

which are to be found in the “Livre des faicts du Marischal
Boucicaut,” part iii. chap. 10. I give them and I believe in them,
because in every instance I have found the documents of Archives to
confirm or explain the assertions of this particular chronicle; because
the articles breathe the very spirit of Boucicaut; and because I think
it is to this agreement that the Florentines refer in the letter quoted
further on (Spoglio del Carteggio i. ii. fo. 221), under date 15th of
August, 1406. The act by which the Florentines constitute
themselves vassals of France for Pisa is well known. It is printed in
Dumont.

124. “Arch. Nat.”, Paris, Carton K. 55, No. 11, prèce 8; July 27,
1406: ”Charles par la Grâce de Dieu Roy de France, à nos amés et
féaulx gens de nos comptes et trésoriers à Paris et à tous nos aultres
justiciers et officiers ou à leur lieutenant, Salut et dilectation!
“Savoir vous faisons que nos très-chers et très-amés frère et
cousin les Ducs d’Orléans et de Bourgoigne, nous ont au jour dit fait
foy et hommaige lige des ville terre et Seigneurie de Pise et de
toutes terres appartenans et appendans quelconque, à eulx
appartenir communément. Auquel hommaige nous les avons reçus
sauf notre droit et l’autrui. Vous mandons, et à chacuns de vous
sicomme à luy appartiendra que, pour cause du dit hommaige à
nous faict, vous ne faictes ou souffrey nos ditz frère et cousin ne
aulcun d’eulx estre molestez, troublez ou empeschez ès dictes ville
terre el seigneurie de Pise ni es terres appartenans et appendans en
aucune manière. Mais si pour la dicte cause elles estoient
empeschées mettez les leur ou faictes mettre a plaine delivrance.
Donné a Paris le 26 jour de Juillet, 1406, et de nostre regne 26. Pour
le Roy, le Comte de Tancarville et aultres princes.”

125. Corio.

126. “Filza xxii. della Signoria”: see fo. 283, Spoglio del Carteggio,
October 10, 1406, a Florentine army enters Pisa: “La città di Pisa si
rende al comune di Firenze: l’esercito vi entra vittorioso nel di senza
commettere alcune violenza e prende il possesso di tutte le
Fortezze.” On the 14th of October a certain number of Pisans were
sent as hostages into Florence; arms of offence and defence were
taken from all the Pisans. On the 12th of November a further
number of hostages to the amount of one hundred of the Pisan
citizens, “dei più atti alle fazioni,” were ordered to be sent into
Florence. Civil order was established under the government of a
Magistrate and eight Priors.

127. “Spoglio del Carteggio,” i. ii., fo. 221 (Filza xx. della Signoria),
15th of August, 1406: “Lettera della Signoria responsiva a quella del
Re di Francia in commendazione dei Pisani ai quali si annunciava di
aver’ data un Signore. Si lamenta la Signoria di questa procedere
dopo che l’acquisto di quella città fatto della Signoria per compta era
stato confermato del Re con figlio e già erano state pagate diverse
somme a Gabriel’ Maria Visconti e a Giovanni Le Meingre (Boucicaut)
Luogotenente Generale della Corona e Governatone di Genova.” A
replica of this is sent to Orleans, Burgundy, and Berry.

128. There are a number of documents concerning this detention

of the Florentine Ambassadors to be found: “Signori Cart. Miss.” Reg.
1. Cancelleria 27, fo. 26 et seq., in the Florence Archives, under
dates 10th of May, 3rd of June, 25th of June, 11th of July. The
letters are too long to publish here, see also “Spoglio del Carteggio,”
fo. 286, for summary of an embassy sent by the Signory to the King
of France, Orleans, and Burgundy, in justification of the purchase of
Pisa and the siege. The Ambassadors “erano stati spogliati e ritenuti
dal Duca d’Orliens, per el che, seguito l’acquisto della detta città, si
spedisce ivi Bonaccorso Pitti.” Pitti was to join Alberto degli Albizzi
already in France, and, going by Avignon, they were to interview the
Antipope, to treat of the union of the Church, to expound to him the
policy of the Republic, and to obtain from him commendatory letters
to the Court at France. But the Antipope was a less formidable ally
than in the days of Clement.
It is curious to observe that the Signory instruct their
ambassadors, if they cannot obtain from the King the liberation of
the imprisoned Ambassadors, to appeal finally to the Parliament.
This is assuming that the Parliament was stronger than the King or
even than Orleans—a piece of trans-Alpine provincialism.

129. “Archives of Florence: Spoglio del Carteggio universale della

Repubblica Fiorentina dell’ anno, 1401-1426,” tome 2, fo. 273:
“Ricuse la Signoria di pagare la rata dovuta a Gabriel’ Maria Visconti,
non essendo egli in sua libertà, ma in poter’ del Duca di Milano, che
serbava convertire il denaro in suo servigio.” Vide “Filza II de’ Dieci,”
fo. 170. June, 1406.

130. See the speech—true, we may suppose, in fact if not in

phrase—as reported in Guicciardini’s “History.”

131. A man-at-arms was a varying quantity of soldiers, from five in

France to three or sometimes one in Italy.

132. Archives de Florence, No. 52, quoted by Cherrier, ii. 294.

The Gresham Press,
UNWIN BROTHERS,
CHILWORTH AND LONDON.
 Transcriber’s Note
The footnotes are moved to follow the paragraph
within which they are referenced, and are sequenced
numerically for uniqueness.
Hyphenation of compound words can be variable.
Where it occurs on a line break, the most commonly
used form is assumed. Many footnotes contain extended
transcriptions in 14th or 15th century Italian, and it is
difficult to ascertain their correctness. With a few
exceptions, noted below, the text is printed verbatim.
The name of the Convent of ‘Roderdesdorf’ in the
Contents is everywhere given in the text as
‘Rodardesdorf’. The Contents’ entry has been corrected
to facilitate searches.
The page references in the Contents direct the reader
to the indicated topics. Be forewarned, however, that
those references to the chapter on ‘The French at Pisa’
go astray after p. 354, and one entry is missing entirely,
but is most likely referring to p. 358.
Obvious printer’s errors or printing flaws have been
corrected, and are noted here with their resolutions. The
corrections are indicated by page and line number, or,
where the correction is to a note, by note and line
number within the note.
iv.8 and, half afraid, [ /I] told Restored.
you
viii.1 the Convent of Replaced.
Rod[e/a]rdesdorf>
n1.3 Beginen-häuser [i]m Restored.
Mittelalter
n1.5 Geschic[h]te der Added.
deutschen Mystik
8.29 the [the ]Alexandrian Removed.
theories of the pseudo-
Dionysius
14.1 the poor vain min[s]trels Added.
33.28 suspected of her[se/es]y. Transposed.
37.17 the panth[ie/ei]st idea Transposed.
38.3 By the middle of the Replaced.
fifteenth century, [T/t]he
Beghards
59.27 so many hours?[’] Added.
64.19 for the sins of the Removed.
ungo[l]dly
61.17 thanksgi[v]ing Added.
82.21 this unconscious Removed.
bea[u]titude
n5.1 Bib. Nat. Fran[c/ç]ais Replaced.
120.9 Que cette Bergère jolie. Replaced.
[’/”]
148.17 supers[ti]tition Removed.
149.21 “And that journey,” say[s] Added.
Froissart
n41.7 pour en avoir garde.[”] Added.
182.28 of his uncle Berna[d/b]ò> Replaced.
193.27 [(]if we may trust the Added.
verdict of Corio)
n57.6 (Pièces Originales Added.
Fontanieu, dossier 1185,
No. 38[)]
200.13 the Duke was afraid of Replaced.
Sforz[o/a]
207.16 proved irres[is]tibly Added.
fascinating
221.5 resolution of Count Replaced.
Francesco Sforz[o/a].
n90.1 promised to assis[t] the Restored.
Dauphin
262.25 1,300 men-at[ /-]arms Replaced.
277.3 What was the sic: ‘to
magnificence of earth [ ] him’?
to him?
282.23 he fought almost Added.
contin[u]ously
294.4 mocking the sacred Added.
mon[o]gram>
302.30 to take counsel with the Replaced.
wise old statesm[e/a]n
and learn his views
n113.13 et diceva non si voller Replaced.
p[ui/iù] curar ne de figlioli
309.21 he weary of his life[.] Added.
326.1 and to poor [l]ittle Restored.
Lorenzio
321.24 in making improm[p]tu> Added.
verses
330.25 with the said Peter[./,]>” Replaced.
says Commines
335.20 Pietra Santa, which [which Removed.
]had cost them 150,000
ducats
340.15 A Replaced.
Medite[rannean/rranean]>
seaport
n120.9 guerra non gli [f/s]ia fatta Replaced.
a noi
n120.24 di questi ell[ /a] Restored.
n121.17 la citt[a/à] nil Replaced.
n121.18 del Seren[e/i]ssimo Re Replaced.
predetto.
n121.62 Che nel terreno di Pisa Replaced.
non dovess[o/e]no fare
alcuna
n122.12 he will make war upon the Added.
fra[u]dulent possessors
358.13 detention of the Florentine Added.
Ambassadors by
Orleans[,]
n129.2 della Repubb[l]ica> Added.
Fiorentina
368.2 writes an eye-witness,[” Replaced.
to/ “to] hear them
369.30 could not attempt to Replaced.
justify[-/.]
388.4 Gi[e/é] Replaced.
*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE END OF THE
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