Demographic Transition
Demography Vital Statistics
-Two Greek roots: Only 4 ways an area can add or lose its population
-demos (people) through:
-graphy (branch of knowledge regarding a -Natural way:
particular science) in this case, human (B) Births (fertility)
populations. (D) Deaths (mortality)
-Artificial way:
-DEMOGRAPHY is the scientific study of (Im) In migration
human populations with respect to their size, (Om) Out migration
dynamics (change) and composition Note: ―Births‖ and ―In migration‖ increase population size,
(structure). whereas ―Deaths‖ and ―Out migration‖ decrease
population size.
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The simplest way to study dynamics (or changes) in the
human population is through the following Basic
Demographic Equation:
P
(current) = P(baseline) + [B – D] + [IM – OM]
P =Current Population
(current)
P =Baseline Population
(baseline)
B-D = Natural Disease
IM - OM =Net Migration
Age and Sex Composition
• Age and sex are the most basic characteristics of a population.
• Every population has a different age and sex composition —the number and proportion of males and
females in each age group.
• This structure can have considerable impact on the population’s social and economic situation, both
present and future.
Population Pyramid
A bar chart arranged horizontally (single year or five years age group), that shows the distribution of
population by age and sex. The younger ages are at the bottom, with males on the left and females on the right.
Pakistan’s Population Pyramid (1998 Census)
Demographic Transition
• The demographic transition model seeks to explain the transformation of countries from having high
birth and death rates to low birth and death rates.
• In developed countries, this transition began in the eighteenth century and continues today. Less
developed countries began the transition later and are still in the midst of earlier stages of the model.
Stage 1: High Stationary Stage 2: Early Expanding
Birth Rate and Death rate are both high. Population Birth Rate remains high. Death Rate is falling.
growth is slow. Population begins to rise steadily.
Reasons Reasons
• Birth Rate is high as a result of: • Death Rate is falling as a result of:
– Lack of family planning – Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox
– High Infant Mortality Rate Vaccine)
– Need for workers in agriculture – Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking
– Children as economic assets boiled)
• Death Rate is high because of: – Improved sanitation
– High levels of disease – Improved food production and storage
– Lack of clean water and sanitation – Improved transport for food
– Lack of health care – Decreased Infant Mortality Rates
– War
Stage 3: Late Expanding
Birth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to fall. Stabilized population or steadily decrease population.
Reasons:
• Family planning available
• Lower Infant Mortality Rate
• Increased mechanization reduces need for workers
• Increased standard of living
• Changing status of women
Demographic Trap
A situation where a developing country continues to have a high birth rate with a low death rate. This
means a high natural increase in population. It strains the economy.
Overpopulation
When the demands for a growing population exceeds the carrying capacity.
