Business Statistic 1
Assignment 2: Individual Case Analysis
Student Name: Nguyen Hoang Di Hao
Student number: 3836246
1. Introduction
The neonatal morality refers to the probability of dead children that are aged under 5, expressed
per 1000 live births (UNICEF). Thanks to the substantial global efforts, since 1960, these
number have decreased. According to WHO, the total of deaths of the children in 1990 was 12.6
million and in 2018 it has turned to 5.6 million.
The Sustainable Development Goals 3 of the United Nations (UN) is Good-health and Well-
being, which shows that the children morality is considered as one of the most important status
of the society. The World Health Organization 2019 targets that the neonatal morality must be
decreased to 2.5 million in 2030 for ensuing the healthy and well-being for everyone in the
world.
There are many factors affecting the children morality rate that prevent to accomplish this goal,
so we need to pay more attention. One of these problems is Gross Nation Income (GNI).
According to The Journal of Health and Human Services Administration 2016, GNI is the
evidence for the rise and fall of neonatal morality rate. The higher GNI is, the less morality is.
The countries which have higher income have more services and health care, which results in
better health for people and decrease the children mortality.
In this report, GNI factors that affect the neonatal morality rate would be analyzed by examined
38 countries samples. The conclusion would illustrate the children mortality rate, elements and
the relationship between them.
2. Descriptive Statistics and Probability
A. Relationship between income and child mortality rate
High Income Middle Income Low Income Total
countries countries countries
(>12500) (>1000 and (<1000)
(HI) <12500) (LI)
(MI)
High rate 0 5 5 10
(>15)
Low rate 13 15 0 28
(<15)
Total 13 20 5 38
Figure 1: Table based on assigned countries’ income and mortality rate
P (High rate/HI) =P (High rate and HI) / P(HI) = (0/38) / (13/38) = 0%
P (High rate/MI) = P (High rate and MI) / P(MI) = (5/38)/(20/38)=1/4=25%
P (High rate/LI) = P (High rate and LI) / P(LI) = (5/28) / (5/38) = 1= 100%
P (High rate) = 10/38
P (High rate/HI), P (High rate/MI) or P (High rate/ LI) are not at same to P (High rate). This
leads to that income and neonatal mortality rate are not statistically independent events.
The probability of the High-income countries that having high child mortality is 0%, in middle
income the category is 84.21% and the Low income one is 100%. These numbers have showed
that the Low-Income countries are the one who have the highest rate of mortality of children
under 5.
B. Descriptive measures
Low-income Middle Income High Income
Mean 23.3 12.595 3.961538
Standard
Error 3.0458168 1.719539 0.882562
Median 21.7 10.75 3
Mode #N/A 5.3 #N/A
Standard
Deviation 6.81065342 7.690012 3.182122
Sample
Variance 46.385 59.13629 10.1259
Kurtosis 1.11362885 0.008948 3.020033
Skewness 0.80631591 0.975396 1.794468
Range 18.3 25.6 11
Minimum 15.4 3.6 1.1
Maximum 33.7 29.2 12.1
Sum 116.5 251.9 51.5
Count 5 20 13
Largest(1) 33.7 29.2 12.1
Smallest(1) 15.4 3.6 1.1
Quartile 1 20.4 6.45 1.8
Quartile 3 25.3 16.175 4.1
IQR 4.9 9.725 2.3
Figure 2: Summary Statistics of countries based on child mortality rage
a) Measurement of central tendency
High income countries:
Q3 + 1.5*IQR = 4.1 +1.5*2.3 = 7.55
There are: 12.1 > 7.55 => Max >Q3 +1.5*IQR => Max = 12.1 is an outlier in the upper
value above values
Low-income countries:
Q3 +1.5*IQR= 32.65
There are: 33.7 > 32.65 => Max > Q3 + 1.5*IQR => Max = 33.7 is an outlier for the upper
value.
In this case, there are some outliers, so the best measure cannot be mean. In fact, we have to use
median, which is not impacted by the out numbers. Hence, the best measure for this central
tendency is median. Median of High-income countries is 3, Low-income is 31.7 and Middle
income is 10.75. thanks to these calculations, it can be concluded that the LI countries have the
highest neonatal mortality rate, the Middle-Income countries ranked second and the third one is
High income countries.
b) Measure of variation
IQR in this case can be considered as the best measure of variation because that there are
some outliers and only IQR is not impact by that. IQR illustrates the midspread of the data,
that is the range of the middle 50% of the neonatal mortality rate. The HI child mortality rate
mispread is 2.3, the MI is 9.725 and in LI is 4.9. It could be considered that MI gets the
highest children death rate, The LI category is ranked the second and the HI is ranked the
third.
c) Box-plot
High-Income countries
Comparing Left side Right side Result
Box Q2-Q1=1.2 > Q3-Q2=1.1 Left skewed
Whisker Q1-Xmin=0.7 < Xmax-Q3=8 Right Skewed
Median Q2-Xmin=1.9 < Xmax-Q2=9.1 Right Skewed
Middle-Income countries
Comparing Left side Right side Result
Box Q2-Q1=4.3 < Q3-Q2=5.425 Right Skewed
Whisker Q1-Xmin=2.85 < Xmax-Q3=13.025 Right Skewed
Median Q2-Xmin=7.15 < Xmax-Q2=18.45 Right Skewed
Low-Income countries
Comparing Left side Right side Result
Box Q2-Q1=1.3 < Q3-Q2=3.6 Right Skewed
Whisker Q1-Xmin=5 < Xmax-Q3=8.4 Right Skewed
Median Q2-Xmin=6.3 < Xmax-Q2=12 Right Skewed
From the table we can imply that the Li countries have the highest neonatal mortality rate, MI
countries is ranked behind LI, and HI covers the third place. The High-income countries have
75% of these countries’ child mortality is 4.1 (Q3), 75 % of Middle-Income has the rate of
16.175 and the 75% Low-Income ones have the child mortality rate of 25.3.
3. Confidence Intervals
a) The world average of neonatal mortality (95% confidence interval)
µ, sample mean: X = 11.05, sample standard deviation: S = 8.826, sample size n=38, α = 0.05
CI = X ± Z* S/√ n = 11.05 ± 2.807 => 8.243 < µ <13.857
95% confident interval show that the world average of neonatal mortality rate under 5 years old
(per 1,000 lives births) is between 8.243 and 13.857.
This true mean can or can not be in this calculation, 95% of the intervals in this would cover the
true mean.
b) Assumption
We do not know the population standard deviation, so we can use the standard deviation, S.
This sample size is n = 38 >30, we can understand that the sampling distribution of these sample
means is normally distributed. Hence, we can use the standard procedure and there will be no
assumption that is needed.
c) If we know the world standard deviation of each variable, we can use the formula of
CI:
We can consume that S is approximately equals to the standard deviation because the size is
large enough n > 30.
If we know the world standard deviation, the confidence interval result will be more detail and
accuracy will be enhanced. Because the sample standard deviation S is just a substitution backup
which will be not accurate. However, S is a variable sample.
4. Hypothesis Testing
a) Test hypothesis for neonatal mortality in the future
According to a report from the World Health Organization the world average mortality rate
neonatal is 18.6 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2016. Based on your confidence interval as
calculated in Part 3a, test the hypothesis based on what you think about mortality rate neonatal
will increase / decrease / remain unchanged in the future
The mean X =¿ 11.05
Check CLT: n = 38 > 30 => normally distributed
State the null hypothesis H0 and alternative hypothesis, H1:
H0 ≥18.6,
H1 ≤ 18.6
α = 0.05 in this case => a lower tail test
Determine table to use: t-table because the world standard deviation is unknown
Determine critical values: α = 0.05 and the degree of freedom is 37 so, the critical
t value is -1.6871
Calculate test statistic: t = ( X −µ)/(S/√ n) = -5.27 < -1.6871
Statistics decision: t < -1.6871, H0 is banned.
Managerial conclusion for the world problem:
H0 is rejected and the confidence interval 95% has illustrated that the neonatal mortality rate
would be smaller than 18.6 in 2016. We can understand that the neonatal mortality would
decrease in the future.
b) If the number of the dataset is triple (n = 114)
If n increases, S/ n will be lower, so t which is negative can be more extremely decreased. New
critical t value will be approximately -1.6588 due to α = 0.05 and degree of freedom is 114
Value t will always larger if the countries number is triple than this and H0 is still banned.
5. Overall Conclusion
To end this report, the information below are some interesting findings:
According to WHO report, we can agree that the total number of neonatal deaths worldwide has
been truly reduced. The evidence that the global neonatal mortality has slipped down from 12.6
million in 1990 to almost 5.3 million in 2018. These numbers have showed that the aims which
UN promised to reduce deaths of under-five children to 25 per 1000 live births in 2030 on Earth
can come true possibly.
Moreover, there are enough evidence, reports, and research that have been studied showed the
relationship between gross national income (GNI) and neonatal mortality rate. Overall, the low-
income countries are considered to have the highest number of child deaths, compared to the
high and middle income ones. The variation mentioned above has explained for the neonatal
mortality rate. However, it seems that the GNI has slightly impacted to the rate of child death, so
the development of economy is not really related to the improvement of health of the nation.
Hence, only when there are some new resources and more investment in the health care system,
there would be more strong relationship between them.
The report above has explained the findings and analyzed the elements that impacts the neonatal
mortality. The child deaths can be decreased and the SDG 3: Good health and Well-being can
come true by making differences in the sequel before 2030. These numbers and calculation has
recommended to pay more attention in the medical aspects and services, these are the key for the
growth of the countries and the solutions for the neonatal mortality reduction.
6. References
Jalal S, Khan Ullah and Younis M 2016, “Journal of health and human services Adminnistation, vol
39”, viewed 20 August 2020,<[Link]
now=1&seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents>.
WHO , 19 September 2019, “Children: reducing mortality ”, viewed 20 August
2020<[Link]
WHO, “Neonatal Mortality”, viewed 20 August 2020, < [Link]
viz-3?lang=en>
Max 2016, MDG monitor, “MDG 4: reducing child mortality”, posted 15 November 2016, viewed 20
August 2020<[Link]
Writing services, “birth rates, National Income And Infant Mortality Rates”, viewed at 20 August
2020, <[Link] >
