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LAYING STAKING PLANS

A Staking Plan is a pre-determined methodology of money management

that, when applied to the process of betting or investing, promotes steady
overall growth through maximised returns. It ensures that the process will
continue by ensuring that funds do not run out, due to the application of
protection measures against losses. This is done by assuming that future
results will be similar or related to past events, though this fact can never
be guaranteed.

The first basis of a Staking Plan is that a separate betting fund or 'bank' is
used from which to stake and to which the winnings are added. This
means that bets are never placed randomly without being accounted for to
the bank amount, and there is a certain amount of limitation of liability in
managing the money in this way, rather than betting out of everyday
funds. The concept of having a bank and protecting it is fundamental to
Staking Plans and applies the first stage of protection.

A Staking Plan is applied to a system of selection, which may use any

criteria to select the next bet. It is important to note that a Staking Plan
will never select a next bet for the user; it will merely indicate the bet
amount.

As a priority, the Betting System used must be assessed in terms of its

relative success and also to estimate the worst-case scenario for a losing
sequence, i.e. the maximum number of consecutive or near-consecutive
losses. This eventuality must be allowed for in selecting the bank start
amount and in the type of staking plan used.

Benefits of using a Staking Plan

Use of a Staking Plan can prevent many of the common mistakes in

betting. A Staking Plan immediately gives discipline to staking. It
establishes a bank amount and imposes rules to every bet made. This
prevents betting due to emotional reactions, positive or negative. It
records every activity to provide a means of checking and cross-
referencing a system. Bets are limited to the amount stipulated by the
Staking Plan, which prevents wild or impulse betting.

A Staking Plan is the key to winning by protecting the bank from the risk
that it is exposed to by betting, and encourages slow but steady growth
rather than a 'get rich quick' mentality.

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Bookmakers want a bettor to chase losses with blind hope, often counting
on luck, and this is what will happen without the use of a disciplined
Staking Plan. The most dangerous time is often at the end of the day
when it is tempting to try to recover all the day's losses in one action. A
Staking Plan continues from day to day, so there is no 'last race' and this
will not happen.

A Staking Plan brings about slow growth through planning and

encourages serious betting and sustained profits. The rule of”don't ever
bet more than you can afford to lose" is ensured by the use of a Staking
Plan.

Features of a Staking Plan

A Staking Plan will:

1) Maximize ROI
2) Protect the bank
3) Indicate the next bet amount
4) Prevent level stakes or flat betting
5) Reduce and limit exposure
6) Assist in making profits from betting
7) Maximise the benefits of wins, minimise the effect of losses
8) Maintain the lowest exposure when recouping after a losing run
9) Position the bettor to gain maximum benefit from a good win
10) Act on the effect of each bet, rather than overall performance or
emotion
11) Turn a marginal system into a profitable system
12) Magnify profits in a profitable system
13) Minimise losses during a long losing run
14) Allow the bank to grow slowly and safely
15) Control staking to build profits over time
16) Record the results of every bet
17) Balance to the bank
18) Impose rules for money management
19) Provide an exact bank balance at all times
20) Enable the bettor to know their exact position
21) Monitor and record each bet of a system
22) Provides a full record of transactions for checking and recording
purposes
23) Give control over betting and provide a plan to which to bet
24) Help prevent betting blindly or on impulse

A Staking Plan will not:

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1) Indicate what to bet on
2) Turn a losing system into a profitable one
3) Predict or guarantee profits
4) Make a 'quick buck', but promote a slow, safe growth process

*ONCE YOU DECIDE ON A STAKING PLAN STICK WITH IT*

ALL OF THESE STAKING PLANS HAVE BEEN BORROWED

FROM THE STAKING MACHINE WHICH CAN BE FOUND
HERE FOR ANYONE WHO WANTS THE SOFTWARE:

THE STAKING MACHINE

Level Staking Plan

This is the most common form of plan and is also known by other names,
flat betting being one of them. This system requires that you lay the same
stake at all times. The size of the stake can be determined however you
like but it is best practice to link it to your starting bank. For example, if
your starting bank was £2000 you would split the bank into points, say
2000 points, in this case £1 represents 1 point. You would then ramp this
up as required to a set stake of say 5 points or 10 points. It all depends on
how often you expect to win and the odds at which you would expect to
win.

The formula can be written as:

• (X / Y) multiplied by Z.
• X = Start Bank
• Y = Points Ratio
• Z = Amount of points per stake

In the example it would be 2000 / 100 x 5 = 100, so your level stakes

would be £100. This is a very safe staking system and can be used as a
reference against other staking systems to analyse their performance.
There are several variations to this system that other staking systems have
incorporated, but in general the base version is used as a benchmark.

Fixed Liability Staking Plan

By using this staking plan we always know what we could lose on each
bet. Let us say that we do not ever want to risk more than £100 in any one
bet. The horse we are interested in is 4/1 (5 in decimal terms). The stake

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we would use is £25. If the horse were to lose we would win £25 If the
horse was to win we would lose £100.

Lay Mixed Staking Plan

This combines Level Staking and Fixed Liability Staking by having a cut
off point to separate the two staking plans. For instance, the cut off point
could be 5/1 or 6 in decimal.

Any horse with odds below this would be bet on by using fixed liability.
Any horse above this would be a fixed level stake. This increases our
chance of larger profits at low odds and reduces any losses at high odds.

Example:

Horse (A) at odds of 4/1 (5 in decimal terms) we would use a fixed

liability of 100 so our stake would be £25.

Horse (B) at odds of 6/1 (7 in decimal terms) we would use a fixed level
stake say £25 but our liability would be higher at £150.

Reverse Lay Mixed Staking Plan

This combines Level Staking and Fixed Liability Staking by having a cut
off point to separate the two staking plans. For instance, the cut off point
could be 5/1 or 6 in decimal.

The normal Lay Mixed Staking Plan works by the following.

Any horse with odds below this would be bet on by using fixed liability.
Any horse above this would be a fixed level stake. This increases our
chance of larger profits at low odds and reduces any losses at high odds

Reverse Lay Mixed Staking Plan works in the following way. Any horse
with odds below the cut off point would be bet on by using a fixed stake.
Any horse above the cut off point would be bet on by using a fixed
liability.

Example:

Horse (A) at odds of 4/1 (5 in decimal terms) we would use a fixed

liability of 100 so our stake would be £25.

Horse (B) at odds of 6/1 (7 in decimal terms) we would use a fixed level
stake say £25 but our liability would be higher at £150.

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Percentage Liability Staking Plan

The percentage liability staking plan is identical to the fixed liability

staking plan except that the liability is linked to a percentage of your
bank.

For instance if, your start bank is £100 and the percentage liability setting
is 5% then your liability will be £5.

If the bank increases, so will your liability. If the bank decreases, your
liability will also decrease.

Percentage Staking Plan

Sometimes known as the 'plateau philosophy', the percentage staking plan

says you should recalculate your stake whenever your betting bank
reaches a certain predefined level. For instance, whenever your fund
increases by 25%. Some say that you shouldn't downgrade your stake if
you fall back through a level, on the assumption that if you stick with the
higher stake it will speed up your return to the top. However, a losing
sequence can sometimes feel like it is never ending and by not adjusting
your stakes when losing, you face bankrupting your bank.

As with any other staking system, the percentage or plateau plan has a
number of variations, for instance, you can increase your stake by 25%
whenever the betting increases by 12.5%. Or as an extreme you could
upgrade your stakes whenever your betting bank grows.

This is essentially identical to the Percentage Staking Plan used with

Back bets. There is one rule that is followed -

The stake used is a % of the cumulative bank. For instance, for a start
bank of £2000 you would maybe use 2% of your bank making the stake
£40. Your next bet would be 2% of whatever the next cumulative, bank
total now is.

Maria Staking Plan

Let me introduce you to a quite brilliant thread and staking plan which we
can use to utilise Frontline Lay. This thread/plan resulted in turning
£3000 into £100,000 in only 303 days!

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Sadly, the thread does not run anymore. The staking plan that was used
should not be over looked. The first 3 pages on the link below cover the
pros and cons of this staking plan in more detail.

[Link]

Like all staking plans which are essentially mathematical formulas, The
Maria staking plan can be broken down into rules.

1) - There are 3 distinct odds ranges to be aware of. The following is

based on a starting bank of £3000

Prices below 3.5: lay to 1% of bank - backer's stake £30 (liability is

always under £75 in this price range)

Prices from 3.6 to 7.4: lay to 0.6% of bank - backer's stake £18
(liability is always between £46.80 - £115.20 in this price range)

Prices from 7.5 to 11: lay to 0.4% of bank - backer's stake £12 (liability
is always between £78 - £132 in this price range)

Anything above 11 or 10/1 is left alone.

2) - If making profits, the stakes are increased on a daily basis in

proportion to the betting bank on a daily basis. For instance, if after day 1
the betting bank is at £3300 then 1% would now be £33 rather than £30.

3) - If after a days betting the cumulative betting bank has decreased the
stakes are left alone unless 35% of the highest level of the bank is lost,
when the stakes are re-calculated based on the new "65%-sized bank"

For example if your using £3000 as your starting betting bank, you would
keep the same stakes used until your betting bank went below £1,950
when those backer's stakes would become £19.50, £11.70 and £7.80 until
the bank gets back up to £3,000 again (or - even down to £1267.50 - a
further 35% loss).
The 35% drop is always worked out from the highest point of the bank.

Lay Ladder Staking Plan

The Lay Ladder Staking Plan is probably the most well known loss
recovery staking plan out there. A Lay Ladder is usually used for 3 lays.
If the first bet you make loses (i.e. the horse wins) then the 2nd bet is

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calculated as usual for a 1 point win plus the losses from the first bet.
This way you still win your 1 point profit.

The longer the lay ladder the higher your stakes can go. In theory the size
of stakes can be exponential!

Let’s look at an example. We have set the initial stake as £2. This will be
what we are trying to win with each sequence of bets.

The first bet entered loses at odds of 7 which means a loss of -£12

This makes the next stake £14.

The bet entered as a loss at odds of 6.5. The second bet is a loss which
means we lose £77. This is added to £12 makes £89. Our initial stake of
£2 is added on to that to make the next stake £91.

A considerable bet just to win £2!

This is one staking plan that I wouldn’t recommend but I know that
everyone is different and some people could possibly like the idea of the
lay ladder.

Lay Kelly Staking Plan

Perhaps the Lay Kelly Staking Plan is the most difficult for the non
mathematician to comprehend. But whether you understand the logic
behind it or not, TSM will still allow you use it.

The Lay Kelly Staking Plan is calculated using several formulas. The first
step is to calculate the liability for the next bet.

Liability = ((Expectation x (Current Odds - 1)) / Divisor) x Current

Bankroll

Expectation = If one bet has an expected value of 5% (meaning that for

every £10,000 we bet we would expect to win £500
Current Odds = The Odds of the current bet.
Divisor = the number used to divide the total by. This will allow you to
use smaller stakes.
Current Bank Roll – This refers to your current betting bank to which all
your bets are calculated for.

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Once the liability has been calculated the stake is rather easier, simply
being

Stake = Liability / (Current Odds -1)

This leaves the question of how do you calculate your expectation/ edge.
The expectation can only be calculated when you are confident you know
your expected strike rate and the average odds that you will use.

Expectation = (Strike Rate x Profit) - (1 – Strike Rate) x Liability)

The following formulas show how we calculate each part of the above
formula.

Strike Rate = Expected Strike Rate

For arguments sake we will use 85%
Strike Rate = 0.85

Profit = Stake - (Stake x Commission)

When calculating the expectation, a stake of 1 unit should be used or £1.

For arguments sake a commission of 5% has been used.
Profit = 1 – (1 x 5%)
Profit = 0.95

Liability = (Average Odds - 1) x Stake

For arguments sake we will assume are average odds are a low 3.75
Liability = (3.75 – 1) x 1
Liability = 2.75

Put the above into the initial formula of

Expectation = (Strike Rate x Profit) - (1 – Strike Rate) x Liability)

Expectation = (0.85 x 0.95) – (1 – 0.85) x 2.75)

Expectation = 0.8075 - 0.412
Expectation = 0.395
Expectation = 39.5%

Now let’s look at an example of this using TSM.

Firstly we go to the Staking Plan Settings Page and calculate our Edge.

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We click on ‘Click To Calculate Layers Edge’ and the edge is calculated
as 39.5%. We then choose our Lay Kelly Staking Plan Settings.

In the following example we have used a rolling current bank. This

means each stake is calculated in real time from the current bank rather
than against a fixed bank. Incidentally a fixed bank will produce fixed
stakes.

A divisor of 2 is used and a small start bank of £100 is used.

The first stake we use is £19.75. The TSM will calculate this for you but
if you want to follow it the calculation to use is as follows.

Liability = (Expectation x (Current Odds - 1) / Divisor) x Current

Bankroll

59.25 = (0.395 x (4 – 1) / 2) x 100

Stake = Liability / (Current Odds -1)

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 19.75 = 59.25 / (4 – 1)

The profit shown takes into account 5% commission.

The next stake is now calculated based on the current bank of 118.76. To
calculate the next stake we need to know the current odds to use. The
next bet will have odds of 2.8

The same procedure as before is followed.

Liability = (Expectation x (Current Odds - 1) / Divisor) x Current

Bankroll

42.22 = (0.395 x (2.8 – 1) / 2) x 118.76

Stake = Liability / (Current Odds -1)

23.45 = 42.22 / (2.8 – 1)

Let’s now look at a run of 10 bets.

Not the greatest example to show you as 10 bets cannot do any staking
plan justice but still none the less shows you how stakes will vary.

Now let’s have a look at the same set of results but using a divisor of 4
instead of 2.

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One feature that needs to be mentioned is the ability to load any set of
data into TSM and then let the software calculate your average odds and
strike rate from the data and calculate the edge for your bets. This feature
can be found under Staking Plan Settings. One click will calculate your
layers edge leaving you with no work what so ever!

This is quite complicated and should be used only by those who feel
competent with it. Anyway check out the video which will explain all:

Lay 1-4 Staking Plan

The idea behind the Lay 1-4 Staking Plan is that you increase the stake by
1 after a winner (losing lay) to a max of 4 until the deficit on that run is
wiped out.

The Lay 1-4 Staking Plan is what I would call a gentle loss recovery
staking plan. With this staking plan, you know what your largest stake is
going to be before you start.

The best way to understand the lay 1-4 staking plan is by working
through an example.

We will use a start bank of £100 and one unit will be £1.
The first bet is always one unit so the first stake is £1. Like with all
examples, the bet loses.

As the bet loses we move up one unit and the next stake is therefore £2.
Again this bet loses.

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The next stake is therefore 3. Our luck changes, we win.

The series deficit is now -£13.05 including the commission of 5%. The
stake stays at £3 until the deficit is wiped.

You can see at bet 9 the stake reverts back to £1 as the series deficit is
wiped. A fairly simple staking plan that will consistently produce better
profits than level stakes. The largest bet is always 4 units. In this example
this limit is never reached. However if the losing sequence were to
continue the maximum bet would be £4.

Lay HiPro86 SP4

This Lay HiPro86 SP4 staking plan is a form of a loss recovery staking
plan but cuts its losses before the stakes are excessive. This compromise
can produce excellent results.

The staking plan is borrowed from specialist lay betting software. The
site can be found at [Link]

The Staking Plan can be broken down into 2 steps.

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 Step 1- When the first loss occurs, the loss is divided into 4 and one
unit added to it. So if we have set one unit as £1 and we lose £10 in the
bet the next stake is £3.5

The next 4 bets after the first loser is £3.5. After 4 winners the stake
reverts back to the original 1 unit or £1.

But what happens if we lose any of the four bets. Well, if a loss occurs we
simply go to Step 2, which is the second stage of the loss recovery. The
exception is when a loss occurs in the final bet of the increased stake. So
if a loss occurred in bet 5 you would simply go back to the beginning and
bet 1 unit or £1.

Step 2 - (Step 2 can only be reached if a loss has occurred in step1 that
causes you to go to step 2)

As in step 1, divide the achieved loss of your previous bet into 4 parts and
add 1 original point. Place the new stake amount on the next four bets.
The next four bets are critical in this plan. If we win all 4 bets, we go
back to the beginning and use 1 point staking. If we lose any bet out of
the four we always go back to the beginning and revert to 1 unit staking.

Let’s see this staking plan in action

You can see that the loss of £21.7 in bet 4 is divided by 4 and one unit
added to make the next stake 6.42. The profit column shows a
commission level of 5%

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Now let’s see what happens when the cycle is finished.

You can see in the table above that the loss recovery sequence is finished
in bet 9 and one unit stakes are used once more.
If a loss had occurred in bet 5, 6, 7 or 8 the sequence would have reset
back to 1 unit and you would have to cut your losses.

If you have a bet selection system that you have confidence in not to
produce frequent losing sequences this staking plan could be extremely
useful.

In the above example, using level stakes of £1 would have left you -
£17.2. That’s a lot to claw back using £1 stakes.

Lay % Recovery

The Lay % Recovery Plan aims to recover your losses over a set number
of cycles and bets.

The available settings in TSM are shown in the screenshot.

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Using the above settings the initial stake is 2% of 100. Stake = 2 units.

When the bet loses you enter the recovery mode. The above settings
allow 2 cycles with each cycle containing 4 bets. The amount of loss to
recover is set at 100%.

In the example below there are 6 bets. The first bet is a loss. The series
deficit is therefore 14 units. The settings tell TSM to try and recover 14
units over 4 bets.

Therefore bets 2, 3, 4 and 5 are calculated as 14/4 = 3.5.

At the bet 6 recovery mode is finished and the stake is back to 2 units.

In the next example bet 4 is a loss. The settings tell TSM there are 2
cycles. As the first cycle was not finished we enter the second cycle and
try and recover our losses again. As bet 4 lost the series deficit is 24.5
units. The next 4 bets (assuming they all win) will be 6.12 units. You can
see that by bet 9 the deficit is recovered and recovery mode is finished.
The stake reverts back to 2 units.

If however cycle 2 is not completed as in the example below. The staking

plan cuts its losses and starts again.

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In TSM you can set the amount of bets to recover your losses from 1-100.
You can also select the cycles from 1-25.

A further setting available is the option to link your stake to the

cumulative total.
In the example below notice how the stake increase until bet 5. At this
point the recovery mode is entered and TSM attempts to recover the
deficit as per the settings used.

At bet 10 recovery mode is finished and the stake is once more calculated
as a percentage of the cumulative total.

The final setting not yet mentioned is the ability to recover any
commission lost during your winnings. For this to be active commission
must be turned on in the TSM software and the 'Increase Stakes to
Recover Commission' must be checked in the staking plan settings.

The screenshot below shows how the stakes are raised to allow for
commission losses.

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Remember - When using Betfair, commission can be 5%. This can equate
to a lot of money lost over time.

I hope you have enjoyed and will be able to use one of these staking plans
in conjunction with the software for Frontline Lay, I’m sure you’ll agree
with these combined it will be a powerful tool.

As I stated I used the staking plans from THE STAKING MACHINE I

just think that as I have put this together as part of a module then you will
get something out of it and even if you don’t use the software you can
still use the manual examples shown here to be creative with your laying
as well as taking it to the next level.

Here are the training videos for all the staking plans listed in this
module and on the official website:

Regards

Ross Turner Frontline Lay 2.0

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