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v1

1 Article

2 Suitability analysis for Moringa Oleifera tree production in Ethiopia - a spatial modelling approach

3 Shimelis Sishah 1
4 e-mail: [email protected]

5 Abstract:

6 Land suitability analysis is a basic premise for allocating specific land for specific purpose. The
7 objective of this study was to predict the suitable sites for cultivating Moringa oleifera tree
8 in Ethiopia using Spatial Analytic Hierarchy Process. Findings of this study will have
9 paramount significance in supporting decision making in the agroforestry development
10 sector. This study employs Spatial Analytic Hierarchy Process and Geographic Information
11 System to generate valuable information in land allocation for moringa oleifera tree
12 production. Climate, topography, soil type and land use parameters were evaluated for
13 suitability analysis. The results of the study revealed that most of the central part of the
14 country are categorized as moderately suitable for the production of moringa oleifera tree.
15 Areas classified as highly suitable are distributed along the borders of southern and western
16 part of the country. However, some of the central part was classified as not suitable for
17 Moringa oleifera tree production. This paper tried to investigate analysis of spatial data to
18 predict suitable site for moringa tree production at national level. At national level, highly
19 suitable, moderately suitable, and not suitable class covers an area of 308,508.2, 1,628,930.8
20 and 59891.3 Square Kilometer respectively.
21 Keywords: SAHP (Spatial Analytical Hierarchy Process), Moringa Oleifera, Multicriteria
22 Evaluation, GIS (Geographic Information System)

23 1. Introduction
24 Nine of the 13 species in the genus Moringa are native to lowlands of eastern Africa (i.e.,
25 south-eastern Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia). Among 13 species of Moringaceae family, five
26 Moringa tree species is located in Southern-Ethiopia, South east-Ethiopia, Northern-Ethiopia
27 and North east-Ethiopia [9,10]. Ethnobotanical and biochemical studies carried out in various
28 countries where Moringa grow show that these species are multipurpose. They are used for
29 food, medicine, fodder, fencing, firewood, gum and as a coagulant to treat dirty water [12].
30
31 Moringa oleifera tree is drought tolerant and fast-growing plant in tropical countries [26].
32 Moringa oleifera tree grows in any tropical and subtropical country with particular
33 environmental features, namely, dry to moist tropical or subtropical climate, with annual
34 precipitation of 760 to 2500 mm and temperature between 18 and 28 °C. It grows in any soil
35 type, but heavy clay and waterlogged, with pH between 4.5 and 8, at an altitude up to 2000
36 m [13].
37
38 All parts of moringa are consumed as food. The plant produces leaves during the dry season
39 and during times of drought, and is an excellent source of green vegetable when little other
40 food is available [5]. Moringa is mainly grown for its leaves in Africa, and much appreciated

© 2020 by the author(s). Distributed under a Creative Commons CC BY license.

Preprints (www.preprints.org) | NOT PEER-REVIEWED | Posted: 26 August 2020 doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0579.v1

41 for its pods in Asia [2]. In Ethiopian context, Moringa oleifera trees were found in
42 sorghum/maize fields, both on flat silty soils in Derashe and the sandy upland soils of the
43 Konso terraces but some were found in household compounds. Ethiopian farmers use the
44 edible parts of Moringa oleifera tree for food purpose and they use the plant for their livestock
45 as source of livestock food. More than 78% of the farmers in Ethiopia utilized Moringa
46 oleifera tree of edible parts in their diet and greeter than 71% were engaged in cultivating
47 these species for over 17 years [9,10].
48
49 A number of studies indicated that Moringa oleifera tree is cultivated in different parts of
50 Ethiopia [10,26]. Authors observation revealed that Moringa oleifera tree presence around
51 home gardens and farmlands in different regions of the country. Planation of Moringa oleifera
52 tree has performed with different actors in the country. Planation was done with traditional
53 land allocation system which lacks scientific evidences. Currently, farmers in Ethiopia grow
54 moringa oleifera tree without know where to plant this tree for maximum product output. The
55 basic premise of GIS suitability analysis is that each aspect of the landscape has intrinsic
56 characteristics that are to some degree either suitable or unsuitable for the activities being
57 planned. Land can be evaluated on different levels from the fine one to guide land
58 management in the context of precision agriculture to the more course classifications to
59 inform regional land use planning and allocation [6]. Therefore, the main problem of this
60 research investigation was traditional land allocation system in the country is ineffective for
61 moringa tree production. So, this study aims at spatial modelling of environmental and
62 climatic factors to assist traditional land allocation system with the help of spatial analytic
63 hierarchical process (SAHP).
64
65 This study employs Spatial Analytic Hierarchy Process (SAHP) and Geographic Information
66 System (GIS) to generate valuable information in land allocation for moringa oleifera tree
67 production. SAHP is a derivative of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is used to
68 resolve highly complex decision-making problems involving multiple factors [21,24]. Its
69 spatial equivalent, SAHP, is now becoming an emerging tool for multi-criteria analysis in
70 which positional relationship between features is relevant [7,4,29]. SAHP was used by
71 several researchers for land use site selection due to its paramount advantages. Some of the
72 special features of SAHP were explained by [7] and [29] as the ability to review both
73 quantitative and qualitative criteria simultaneously, the possibility of simplifying complex
74 issues into a form of hierarchy, pair-wise comparisons and weighing criteria, simple
75 calculations and possibility of ranking the final options. It also works well with various factor
76 weighting and quantifies experts’ opinions [29]. This implies this method can be customized
77 to specific features of a particular field.
78
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79 Findings of this study will have paramount significance in supporting decision making in the
80 agroforestry development sector. Having a knowledge of where to plant Moringa oleifera
81 tree at national level will support Ethiopian green economy annual plan. Local communities,
82 universities, investors, researchers, community-based organization (CBO’s) and non-
83 governmental organizations (NGO’s) will benefited from the research results.
84
85 To the best of our knowledge, there is no study that has looked at the possibility of mapping
86 the suitable cultivation areas of Moringa oleifera in Ethiopia. Therefore, the objective of this
87 study was to predict the suitable sites for cultivating Moringa oleifera in Ethiopia using SAHP
88 method. Specifically, this investigation was intended to identify factors, select criteria of
89 growth, classify and weigh variables into different levels of suitability.

90 2. Materials and Methods

91 2.1. study area

92 Ethiopia is geographically located within the tropics between 3 degrees and 15 degrees of
93 north latitude and between 33 degrees and 48 degrees of east longitude. It has common
94 borders with Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan Republic, Somalia, Eritrea and Djibouti (Figure 1).
95 The mean annual temperature of the country is 22.2°C. The lowest temperature ranges from
96 4°C to 15°C in the in the lowlands at the Danakil Depression [1]. The country receives mean
97 annual rainfall of 812.4 mm, with a minimum of 91 mm and a maximum of 2,122 mm.

98
99 Figure 1 Location map of study area

100 2.2. Data source

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101
102 All of the dataset for this study was obtained from secondary data sources. Climate data types
103 such as temperature, rainfall and precipitation were downloaded from world climate website
104 (www.worldclim.org ). Climate data used in this study were obtained from the World Climate
105 Data with a spatial resolution of 30 s (~1 km2) and they represent average monthly climate
106 data of the year 2019-2020. The soil data (soil Ph, soil texture) were obtained from the
107 Harmonized World Soil Database (FAO, 2018) with a spatial resolution of 0.0083° which is
108 equivalent to approximately 90m. Land use data of the country was obtained from Ethiopian
109 Mapping Agency; Since an authority of producing Land use data at national level was given
110 to EMA. After the data layers of the criteria variables were obtained, they were standardized
111 by resampling all variables to a 30 m resolution and projected to Universal Transverse
112 Mercator (UTM) projection.
113
114 Table 1 Data types used for suitability analysis of moringa oleifera tree in Ethiopia

Data type Spatial resolution Source

Rainfall 1 km www.worldclim.org
Temperature 1 km www.worldclim.org
Precipitation 1 km www.worldclim.org
Solar radiation 1 km www.worldclim.org
Soil texture 90m FAO, 2018
Soil PH 90m FAO, 2018
Slope SRTM 30m www.usgs.org
Land use - EMA (Ethiopian mapping agency)
115
116 2.3. Data analysis
117 2.3.1. Selecting criteria for suitability assessment
118 The criteria of suitability assessment were selected through an intensive literature review on
119 site requirements of Moringa oleifera tree production. Besides review of international
120 experience from literature about the subject matter, expert consultation was a helpful tool
121 used in the rating of factors using pair-wise comparisons. (Table2)
122

123 Table 2 Suitability criteria for production of Moringa oleifera tree production

124
125 2.3.2. Standardization of criteria
126 Standardizing criteria means transforming different input data into the same unit of
127 measurement scale. Different input data such as rainfall, temperature, precipitation, soil ph,
128 soil texture, land use data needs to be converted into the same measurement scale. Each
129 dataset was converted into raster format. Raster pixels of each parameter were classified into
130 suitability classes for Moringa oleifera tree production. After classification, all raster data of
Preprints (www.preprints.org) | NOT PEER-REVIEWED | Posted: 26 August 2020 doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0579.v1

Suitability class
Moderately Not suitable
Highly suitable (S3)
Dataset suitable (S2) (S1) Reference
Temperature (0C) 25-35 18-25 and 35-45 <10 [15]
Rainfall (mm) 700-2200 250-700 <250 [29]
Precipitation
50-100 100-150 >150 [14]
(mm)
Elevation (m) 50-500 500-1000 >1500 [14]
Slope (%) 0-4 4-12 >12 [14]
Forest, alpine Barren land,
Grassland, shrubland,
Land use (class) vegetation, swamps, [15]
bushland, cultivation,
woodland waterbodies
Soil PH 6.3-7 4.5-6.3 <4.5 and >8.5 [3]
Clay loam, sandy
Loam, loamy sand, Clay, heavy
Soil Texture clay, silty clay, [16,18]
sandy, sandy loam clay
sand clay loam

131 each factor had values of 3, 2 and 1 representing “Highly suitable”, “moderately suitable”
132 and “not suitable areas”, respectively.
133 2.3.3. Weighing of the criteria
134 Pair-wise comparison matrix developed by [21] which uses nine-point weighing scale was
135 used to determine the relative importance of each criteria in overlay analysis (Table3). In
136 pair-wise comparison, the first important issue was assigning importance value relative to
137 each factor. According to different literatures, relative importance value of each factor was
138 assigned in pair-wise comparison.
139 Table 3 Analytical hierarchical process (AHP) criteria importance

Importance score Definition

1 Equal importance of i and j
3 Weak importance of i over j
5 Strong importance of i over j
7 Very strong importance of i over j
9 Extreme importance of i over j
2,4,6,8 Intermediate values between i and j
Preprints (www.preprints.org) | NOT PEER-REVIEWED | Posted: 26 August 2020 doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0579.v1

If criterion i has one of the above non-zero numbers

Reciprocal of the above assigned to it when compared with criterion j, then j
has the reciprocal value when compared with i
140 Source: [21, 22]
141
142 2.3.4. consistency ratio
143 For preventing bias during criteria weighing, consistency ratio was used as a tool to ensure

144 coherent comparisons. Consistency ratio is a general measure of the comparative judgments

145 goodness in building up decision matrices within the AHP. It was calculated as the ratio of

146 consistency index (CI) and random consistency index (RI). The RI is the random index

147 representing consistency of a randomly generated pair-wise comparison matrix. Consistency

148 ratio is a decision tool to evaluate whether an AHP is acceptable for decision making or not

149 [22].
( )
150 = ( )

151 =

152 Where; n=number of items being compared

153 λmax = the largest eigen value
154 CI = consistency index
155 CR = consistency ratio
156
157 Table 4 Random index table

Random Index

n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

RI 0 0 0.58 0.9 1.12 1.24 1.32 1.41 1.46 1.49

158 Source: [21]
159
160 2.3.5. Spatial Modeling
161 Spatial model that is used for suitability analysis was built in ArcGIS (version 10.6). In spatial
162 model; format conversion, reclassification and the final weighted overlay analysis were
163 performed. Various factors (i.e. precipitation, rainfall, temperature, soils, land use/cover and
164 slope) were combined to a suitability map of three levels of suitability. In the overall weighted
165 overlay analysis, each criterion was weighed by its importance value, which reflects influence
166 of the criteria in the overall suitability (S).
Preprints (www.preprints.org) | NOT PEER-REVIEWED | Posted: 26 August 2020 doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0579.v1

167 =∑ ( )
168 Where; S = over all suitability, Wi= weight of each criteria, CI = consistency index.

169
170 Figure 2Schematic Description of Spatial modelling source: Own Generated

171 3. Results and discussion

172 3.1. Single factor suitability evaluation
173 3.1.1. Rainfall
174 According to [14,15], Moringa oleifera tree can grow in areas that receive an annual rainfall
175 of 250 to 1500 mm, with optimal growth of Moringa oleifera requiring between 700 and 2200
176 mm of annual rainfall. Studies carried out by [29] indicate that Moringa oleifera tree is a
177 hardy plant that does well semi-arid and arid regions if the minimum annual rainfall
178 requirement is below 250mm.
179 3.1.2. Temperature
180 Moringa Oleifera tree is adapted to different agroclimatic conditions. It is most commonly
181 cultivated in tropical or sub-tropical semi-arid regions. Optimal temperature required for M.
182 oleifera growth is between 25 and 35 °C [18, 11]. The plant can tolerate high temperatures
183 up to 48 °C [25], but does not do well in cold areas that have temperatures below 10 °C [18].
184 3.1.3. Soil PH
185 Soil pH is one of the factors that significantly affect Moringa oleifera cultivation. Moringa
186 oleifera tree can grows very well (highly suitable) in soils having a PH of between 6.3 and 7.
187 Soil PH value between 4.5-6 is moderately suitable and Ph value below 4.5 and above 8.5 is
188 not suitable for Moringa oleifera tree production [14,29].
189 3.1.4. Soil Texture
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190 The property of soil texture is related with infiltration rate and water logging tendency. A soil
191 with good infiltration rates and without water logging tendencies is suitable for Moringa
192 oleifera tree cultivation. Moringa oleifera tree can be grown in variety of soil types and
193 conditions from well drained sandy loam soils to heavier clay loam soils. Excessively
194 drained, moderately well drained and well drained soils are all classified as well suited to
195 Moringa tree growing [16, 18]. So, soil texture types such as loam, loamy sand, sandy and
196 sandy loam are highly suitable; whereas, clay loam, sandy clay, silty clay and sand clay loam
197 are considered to be moderately suitable for moringa oleifera tree production. Soil textures
198 with clay and heavy clay property are not suitable for Moringa oleifera tree production.
199 3.1.5. Precipitation
200 Water and precipitation are the main limiting factors affecting plant growth and survival in
201 arid and semiarid regions. The adaptation characteristics of desert plants are all related to the
202 use of water resources. Limited precipitation directly restricts the expression of plant
203 morphology, and plants are confronted with the balance of resource allocation in growth,
204 reproduction, and maintenance [28]. Moringa oleifera tree can grow in areas having relatively
205 low precipitation and seasonal rainfall [14]. Therefore, precipitation of the study area was
206 classified into highly suitable (S1), moderately suitable (S2) and not suitable (N1) depending
207 on [14] classification.
208 3.1.6. Slope
209 Slope is an important indicator of land suitability since it affects drainage, irrigation and soil
210 erosion [27]. Steep slope is subjected to runoff which increase infiltration efficiency of
211 rainfall. Slopes up to 8 percent are ideal for optimum growth of Moringa tree production;
212 whereas slope above 12 percent are not optimal for Moringa tree production. Slopes of the
213 study area was reclassified as 0-4 highly suitable, 4-8 moderately suitable and above 12
214 percent not suitable. Therefore, suitability classes of slope were classified as S1, S2 and N1;
215 Highly suitable, moderately suitable and not suitable respectively in accordance with similar
216 classification done by [14].
217 3.1.6. Land use
218 Land use types are an important factor which affects the growth of Moringa oleifera tree.
219 Moringa oleifera can grow in open lands, shrub lands, cultivation lands and forest areas. The
220 level of suitability of each land use is significantly different from each other. According to
221 [15], open and shrub lands are the optimal land use types for Moringa oleifera tree grow.
222 Land use of the study area was reclassified as open and shrublands are highly suitable, forest
223 area as moderately suitable and cultivation land as not suitable.
224
225 The results of individual parameter suitability evaluation such as rainfall, elevation, slope
226 and temperature show highly suitable for Moringa oleifera tree grow in most part of the study
227 area. Meanwhile, precipitation and land use parameters reveled moderately suitable range of
Preprints (www.preprints.org) | NOT PEER-REVIEWED | Posted: 26 August 2020 doi:10.20944/preprints202008.0579.v1

228 the study area. However, parameters such as soil texture and soil ph indicate not suitable
229 range for Moringa oleifera tree production in Ethiopia. The following figure depicts
230 suitability range of individual parameter for moringa oleifera tree production (Figure3).

231
232 Figure 3 Individual parameter suitability class

233 3.2. Criteria weights

234 In this study weights for selected parameters was derived using SAHP method. Relative
235 importance of factors/parameters that affect the growth of moringa oleifera tree was assigned
236 in pair-wise comparison matrix. In the matrix, above diagonal values were assigned in
237 comparison with column parameter. The values of each parameter were given in accordance
238 with parameter effect on the growth of moringa oleifera tree production. Below diagonal
239 values of each parameter are the reciprocal of the above diagonal. After assigning relative
240 importance values of above diagonal and reciprocal of above diagonal matrix, normalization
241 of each cell value was done. Normalization can be computed by dividing each cell value to
242 column total of each parameter. Normalization of parameters value was performed in order
243 to generate criteria weights for each parameter. Criteria of each parameter was obtained by
244 summing up row values of each cell. According to criteria weights value, elevation parameter
245 is paramount importance for Moringa tree growth. Consistency ratio of all parameter was
246 computed to check whether the calculated value of is correct or not correct. Values of
247 consistency ratio exceeding 0.10 are indicative of inconsistent judgments; whereas values of
248 0.10 or less indicate reasonable level of consistency in the pair-wise comparison. In this case
249 computed consistency ratio is 0.05 and this indicates reasonable level of consistency in the
250 matrix.
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251 Table 5 Relative importance values of factors that affect moringa oleifera production in Ethiopia

Soil
Elevation Temperature Rainfall Soil pH Land use Slope
texture
Elevation 1.00 9 7 3 3 3 7
Temperature 0.11 1.00 5 3 3 5 5
Rainfall 0.14 0.20 1.00 3.00 0.50 7 3
Soil pH 0.33 0.33 0.33 1.00 3.00 7 7.00
Soil texture 0.33 0.33 2.00 0.33 1.00 5 7
Land use 0.33 0.20 0.14 0.14 0.20 1.00 7.00
Slope 0.14 0.20 0.33 0.14 0.14 0.14 1.00
Total 2.40 11.27 15.81 10.62 10.84 28.14 37.00

252 Source: - Author’s observation and experts view

253

254 Table 6 Weight and consistency ratio (CR) of pair-wise comparison matrix of factors that affect Moringa oleifera production

Elevation Temperature Rainfall Soil Soil Land Slope Criteria Consistency weight
pH texture use weight Measure percent
Elevation 0.42 0.80 0.44 0.28 0.28 0.11 0.19 0.36 1.21 36
Temperature 0.05 0.09 0.32 0.28 0.28 0.18 0.14 0.19 0.82 19
Rainfall 0.06 0.02 0.06 0.28 0.05 0.25 0.08 0.11 0.83 11
Soil pH 0.14 0.03 0.02 0.09 0.28 0.25 0.19 0.14 0.85 14
Soil texture 0.14 0.03 0.13 0.03 0.09 0.18 0.19 0.11 0.89 11
Land use 0.14 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.19 0.06 1.07 6
Slope 0.06 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.02 1.40 2
Total 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 7.07 100
255 Source: - Author’s calculation
256 Table 7 Consistency ratio

CI 0.07
RI 1.32
C. Ratio 0.05
257 Source: - Author’s calculation
258 3.3. Weighted overlay
259 A Weighted Suitability Model was developed in ArcMap for proposing suitable locations for
260 Moringa oleifera tree production depending on a number of parameters and based on the
261 principle of Multi-Criteria Evaluation. Such models are used for applying a common
262 measurement scale of values to diverse and dissimilar inputs in order to create an integrated
263 analysis. In the suitability model parameters such as rainfall, temperature, elevation, slope,
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264 soil types and land use were reclassified and weighed together to produce overall optimal
265 sites for Moringa oleifera tree production.

266
267 Figure 4 Spatial modelling

268
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269
270 Figure 5 Overall suitability

271 3.4. Proportions of area coverage

272 The proportion of area coverage shows that most of the central part of the country is
273 categorized as moderately suitable range. However, the central part of Amhara and Tigray
274 regional states classified as not suitable for Moringa oleifera tree production. Areas which is
275 classified as highly suitable for Moringa oleifera tree production is distributed along the
276 borders of southern and western part of the country.
277
278 Table 8 Area coverage proportion

Suitability class Area coverage (km2)

Highly Suitable 308,508.2

Moderately Suitable 1,628,930.8
Not Suitable 59891.3
Total 1,997,330.30 km2
279
280
281
282

283 5. Conclusions
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284 Spatial Analytical Hierarchical Process (SAHP) is a precise technique for allocating specific
285 land for specific purpose. In this paper climate, topography, soil type and land use parameters
286 were evaluated for suitability analysis of moringa tree production in Ethiopia. Individual
287 parameter evaluation was performed to estimate how each parameter have paramount
288 influence in the model. Multicriteria evaluation technique was employed to assign weights
289 for each parameter in suitability analysis. The results of individual parameter suitability
290 evaluation such as rainfall, elevation, slope and temperature show highly suitable for
291 Moringa oleifera tree grow in most part of the study area. Meanwhile, precipitation and land
292 use parameters revealed moderately suitable range of the study area. However, parameters
293 such as soil texture and soil ph indicate not suitable range for Moringa oleifera tree
294 production in Ethiopia. Model builder was used for applying a common measurement scale
295 of values to diverse and dissimilar inputs in order to create an integrated analysis. In the
296 suitability model parameters such as rainfall, temperature, elevation, slope, soil types and
297 land use were reclassified and weighed together to produce overall optimal sites for Moringa
298 oleifera tree production. The overall suitability range shows that most of the central part of
299 the country is categorized as moderately suitable range. However, some central part of
300 Amhara and Tigray regional states was classified as not suitable for Moringa oleifera tree
301 production. Areas classified as highly suitable for Moringa oleifera tree production was
302 distributed along the borders of southern and western part of the country. In proportion,
303 highly suitable range covers an area of 308,508.2 square kilometer. Whereas moderately
304 suitable and not suitable class covers an area of 1,628,930.8 and 59891.3 square kilometers
305 respectively
306
307 Acknowledgments:

308 First, I would like to offer my special thanks to almighty God. Secondly, I would like to
309 express my great appreciation to Arsi University, Department of Geography and
310 environmental studies staff for their valuable and constructive suggestions during the
311 planning and development of this research work. Their willingness has been very much
312 appreciated. Finally, my special thanks are extended to all postgraduate classmates to help
313 me in data collection and analysis.

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