FLOOD
PREDICTION
GRAPH ANALYSIS: CHARACTERISTICS, UNIT
HYDROGRAPH THEORY, INSTANTANEOUS UNIT
HYDROGRAPH, SYNTHETIC UNIT,
HYDROGRAPHS APPLICATIONS.
1931 CHINA FLOODS OR THE 1931 YANGTZE-HUAI RIVER
FLOODS
More than a
million
deaths
Deadliest disaster in 20 th century
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WASHI/TROPICAL STORM
SENDONG
3.3 m (11 ft) flood in less than an hour
FLOOD PREDICTION
Process of transformation of
rainfall into a flood hydrograph and
to the translation of that
hydrograph throughout a
watershed or any other
hydrological system.
THREE MAIN APPROACHES
1. Statistical studies can be undertaken to
attempt to determine the probability and
frequency of high discharges of streams
that cause flooding.
THREE MAIN APPROACHES
1. Statistical studies can be undertaken to
attempt to determine the probability and
frequency of high discharges of streams
that cause flooding.
THREE MAIN APPROACHES
2. Floods can be modeled and maps can be
made to determine the extent of possible
flooding when it occurs in the future.
THREE MAIN APPROACHES
3. Since the main causes of flooding are
abnormal amounts of rainfall and sudden
thawing of snow or ice, storms and snow levels
can be monitored to provide short-term flood
prediction.
WATERSHED
RAINFALL SNOWMELT
CONDITION
UNIT
HYDROGRAPH
RUNOFF PROCESS
FLOOD
FREQUENCY
RIVER ICE
FLASH
STREAMFLOW
FLOOD STAGE-
ROUTING
PROCESS DISCHARGE
RELATIONSHIP
HYDROGRAPH:
RIVER/STREAM
FORECAST
FLOOD PREDICTION PROCESS
HYDROGRAPH
UNIT HYDROGRAPH THEORY
• The effective rainfall is uniformly distributed over the
entire drainage basin.
• The effective rainfall occurs uniformly within its specifier
duration.
• The effective rainfalls of equal (unit) duration will
produce hydrographs of direct runoff having same or
constant time base.
• Principle of linearity or proportionality or superposition.
• Principle of time invariance.
HYDROGRAPH
It is a graph showing the rate of flow
(discharge) versus time past a specific
point in a river, channel, or conduit
carrying flow.
• Discharge-The rate of flow (volume per
unit time) passing a specific location in
a river or other channel.
• Rising Limb-Also known as concentration
curve, reflects a prolonged increase in
discharge from a catchment area,
typically in response to a rainfall event.
• Peak Discharge-The highest point on the
hydro graph when the rate of
discharge is greatest.
• Recession or Falling Limb-Extends from
the peak flow rate onward.
• Lag Time-The time interval from the
center of mass of rainfall excess to the
peak of resulting hydrograph.
• Time to Peak-Time interval from the
start of the resulting hydrograph.
TYPES OF HYDROGRAPH
• Storm hydrograph
• Flood hydrograph
• Annual hydrograph
• Direct runoff hydrograph
• Effective runoff hydrograph
• Storm hydrograph-are graphs that show how a
drainage basin responds to a period of
rainfall.
• Flood hydrograph-visual representation of the
variation in the stream or river depth over time.
• Annual hydrograph-shows the average daily
flow of a river over the course of one year
rather than a period of hours.
• Direct runoff hydrograph- resulting
from one unit (1cm or 1inch) of
effective rainfall occurring uniformly. A
hydrograph excluding the contribution
from the groundwater flow or base
flow.
• Effective runoff hydrograph-the
rainfall available for runoff after
infiltration. Also defined as the direct
runoff hydrograph resulting from a
unit.
UNIT
HYDROGRAPH
What is Unit Hydrograph (UH)?
• U.H. concept was given by Sherman in 1932
• It is a direct runoff hydrograph produced
from 1 cm or 1 inch effective rainfall(net
rainfall) occurred uniformly over the entire
catchment at uniform rate and for specified
duration.
• DRH (Direct Runoff Hydrograph)-
hydrograph without considering Basin Flow
• ERH (Effective Rainfall Hydrograph)-
hydrograph without considering infiltration
losses.
• RAINFALL EXCESS – PART OF THE RAINFALL WHICH BECOMES SURFACE
RUNOFF.
• EFFECTIVE RAINFALL (NET RAINFALL) - EFFECTIVE RAINFALL (OR
NET RAINFALL) IS THE PART OF THE TOTAL RAINFALL THAT CONTRIBUTES TO DIRECT RUNOFF.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TOTAL RAINFALL AND THE EFFECTIVE RAINFALL IS CALLED
‘LOSSES’.
• THE Ø INDEX METHOD
IN THIS METHOD, THE RAINFALL LOSSES ARE CONSIDERED AS CONSTANT WITH TIME
SAMPLE PROBLEM:
THE ORDINATES OF A 6-HR UNIT HYDROGRAPH ARE
GIVEN. A STORM HAS 3 SUCCESSIVE 6HR INTERVALS OF
RAINFALL MAGNITUDE OF 3, 5, 4 CM, RESPECTIVELY.
ASSUMING AN Ø – INDEX OF 0.2 CM/HR AND A BASE
FLOW OF 30M3/S. DETERMINE THE RESULTING
HYDROGRAPH OF FLOW.
TIME Ordinates
(6-h UH)
m3/s
0 0
6 250
12 600
18 800
24 700
30 600
36 450
42 320
48 200
54 100
60 50
66 0
Ordinates (6-
TIME UH x 1.8
h UH) m3/s
0 0 0
6 250 450
12 600 1080
18 800 1440
24 700 1260
30 600 1080
36 450 810
42 320 576
48 200 360
54 100 180
60 50 90
66 0 0
72 - -
78 - -
Ordinates (6-
TIME UH x 1.8 UH x 3.8
h UH) m3/s
0 0 0 -
6 250 450 0
12 600 1080 950
18 800 1440 2280
24 700 1260 3040
30 600 1080 2660
36 450 810 2280
42 320 576 1710
48 200 360 1216
54 100 180 760
60 50 90 380
66 0 0 190
72 - - 0
78 - - -
Ordinates (6-
TIME UH x 1.8 UH x 3.8 UH x 2.8
h UH) m3/s
0 0 0 - -
6 250 450 0 -
12 600 1080 950 0
18 800 1440 2280 700
24 700 1260 3040 1680
30 600 1080 2660 2240
36 450 810 2280 1960
42 320 576 1710 1680
48 200 360 1216 1260
54 100 180 760 896
60 50 90 380 560
66 0 0 190 280
72 - - 0 140
78 - - - 0
DRH + BF
Ordinates (6-
TIME UH x 1.8 UH x 3.8 UH x 2.8 DRH Base flow
h UH) m3/s
(Hydrograph)
0 0 0 - - 0 30 30
6 250 450 0 - 450 30 480
12 600 1080 950 0 2030 30 2060
18 800 1440 2280 700 4420 30 4450
24 700 1260 3040 1680 5980 30 6010
30 600 1080 2660 2240 5980 30 6010
36 450 810 2280 1960 5050 30 5080
42 320 576 1710 1680 3966 30 3996
48 200 360 1216 1260 2836 30 2866
54 100 180 760 896 1836 30 1866
60 50 90 380 560 1030 30 1060
66 0 0 190 280 470 30 500
72 - - 0 140 140 30 170
78 - - - 0 0 30 30
Construction of Unit Hydrograph
Sample Problem:
On a drainage basin of 400 km2 size 8 hours storm was
selected for construction of unit hydrograph. Compute
the depth of direct runoff.
Table A . Rainfall Increment observed from the average mass curve(July 9, 2016)
Time 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00
(hours) To To To To
10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00
Rainfall
increment, cm 1.07 3.90 3.74 1.09
Assume average rate of 1 cm/hr for calculating effective rainfall.
Table B. The ordinate of the observed hydrograph and basic flow.
Date Time Hydrograph Baseflow Date Time Hydrograph Baseflow
Ordinate Ordinate Ordinate Ordinate
m3/s m3/s m3/s m3/s
July 0800 4 4.0 July 0400 97.5 3.5
9 1200 93 3.6 10 0800 41 4.0
1600 237 3.0 1200 22 4.0
2000 301 2.0 1600 11 4.0
2400 234 3.0 2000 6 4.0
2400 4 4.0
Rainfall Intensity vs Duration Effective rainfall
4.5
4
3.5
Actually
Rainfall,cm/2h
3
[NM1]
[NM1]
2.5
2 constructed
1.5
1
from Table A
0.5
0
2 4 6 8
Time, hours
Hyetograph
Solution
STEP 1. Using the data of rainfall from hyetograph as shown. The
ordinate line (x line) can be drawn at 2 cm ordinate. The area
above gives effective rainfall. It may be also seen that the direction
of effective rainfall is 4 hrs which is equal to specific or unit duration
of hydrograph.
STEP 2. Compute for the total amount of effective rainfall.
Date Time Rainfall Average Effective
(hours) Increment Loss Rainfall
(cm) (cm/hour) (cm)
July 9 0800 to 1000 1.07 2 -
1000 to 1200 3.90 2 1.90
1200 to 1400 3.74 2 1.74
1400 to 1600 1.09 2 -
Total 3.64
STEP 3. The ordinates of the direct runoff hydrograph and 4-unit
hydrograph is calculated as shown below.
Direct runoff ordinate = Total runoff
ordinate – Base flow ordinate, and
Unit hydrograph ordinate = Direct runoff
ordinate/Direct runoff(or effective
rainfall) expressed in cm
Solution table.
Date Time Hours after Hydrograph Base flow Direct runoff Unit Hydrograph
(hr) start Ordinates m3/s ordinates Ordinates
m3/s m3/s m3/s
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) =(4-5) (7) = (6)/3.64
July 9 0800 0 4 4 0 0
1200 4 93 3.5 89.5 24.6
1600 8 237 3.0 234 64.3
2000 12 301 2.0 299 82.1
July 10 2400 16 234 3.0 231 63.5
0400 20 97.5 3.5 94 25.8
0800 24 41 4.0 37 10.2
1200 28 22 4.0 18 4.9
1600 32 11 4.0 7 1.9
2000 36 6 4.0 2 0.6
2400 40 4 4.0 0 0
Total 1011.5 277.9
Step 4
Area = 400 km2
4-hr duration
Volume of direct runoff = ∑Q x t
=1011.5 x 4 x 60 x 60
= 4044 x 3600 m3
= 14,565,600 m3
Step 5.
Depth of direct runoff in cm = [(4044 X3600) / Area
of basin in m2] X 100
= (4044 X 3600X100)
/ (400 X 1000 X 1000)
= 3.64 cm
NOTE!
Depth of direct runoff =Depth of effective rainfall = 3.64 cm
Hence, stepwise calculations are correct.
Step 6
Volume of runoff from unit hydrograph = ∑ Q x t
= 277.8 x 4 x 60 x 60 m3
Depth of runoff from unit hydrograph in cm
= [(277.8 x 4 x 60 x 60)/400 x 1000×1000 ]x 100
= 1cm
(This is as per definition of unit hydrograph)
Step 7. Now using the
values in columns (3)
and (7) ordinates of
unit hydrograph can be
plotted against time as
abscissa to construct
unit hydrograph as
shown in the figure.
APPLICATION OF UNIT HYDROGRAPHS
THEY ARE OF GREAT USE IN
• THE DEVELOPMENT OF FLOOD HYDROGRAPHS FOR EXTREME
RAINFALL MAGNITUDES (FOR USE IN THE DESIGN OF
HYDRAULIC STRUCTURES)
• EXTENSION OF FLOOD FLOW RECORDS BASED ON RAINFALL
RECORDS
• DEVELOPMENT OF FLOOD FORECASTING AND WARNING
SYSTEMS BASED ON RAINFALL
SYNTHETIC UNIT
HYDROGRAPH
SYNTHETIC UNIT HYDROGRAPH
Unit hydrograph developed from
rainfall and streamflow data on a
watershed apply only to that
watershed and for the point on the
stream where the streamflow data
were measured.
Figure 4.13 The instantaneous unit hydrograph of Williams
