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D emography is the systematic study of population. The term is of Greek origin

and is composed of the two words, demos (people) and graphein (describe),
implying the description of people. Demography studies the trends and
processes associated with population including – changes in population size;
patterns of births, deaths, and migration; and the structure and composition
of the population, such as the relative proportions of women, men and different
age groups. There are different varieties of demography, including formal
demography which is a largely quantitative field, and social demography
which focuses on the social, economic or political aspects of populations. All
demographic studies are based on processes of counting or enumeration – such
as the census or the survey – which involve the systematic collection of data
on the people residing within a specified territory.
Demography is a field that is of special importance to sociology – in fact,
the emergence of sociology and its successful establishment as an academic
discipline owed a lot to demography. Two different processes happened to
take place at roughly the same time in Europe during the latter half of the
eighteenth century – the formation of nation-states as the principal form of
political organisation, and the beginnings of the modern science of statistics.
The modern state had begun to expand its role and functions. It had, for
instance, begun to take an active interest in the development of early forms
of public health management, policing and maintenance of law and order,
economic policies relating to agriculture and industry, taxation and revenue
generation and the governance of cities.
This new and constantly expanding sphere of state activity required the
systematic and regular collection of social statistics – or quantitative data on
various aspects of the population and economy. The practice of the collection
of social statistics by the state is in itself much older, but it acquired its modern
form towards the end of the eighteenth century. The American census of 1790
was probably the first modern census, and the practice was soon taken up in
Europe as well in the early 1800s. In India, censuses began to be conducted
by the British Indian government between 1867–72, and regular ten yearly
(or decennial) censuses have been conducted since 1881. Independent India
continued the practice, and seven decennial censuses have been conducted
since 1951, the most recent being in 2011. The Indian census is the largest
such exercise in the world (since China, which has a slightly larger population,
does not conduct regular censuses).
Demographic data are important for the planning and implementation of
state policies, specially those for economic development and general public
welfare. But when they first emerged, social statistics also provided a strong
justification for the new discipline of sociology. Aggregate statistics – or the
6 numerical characteristics that refer to a large collectivity consisting of millions
of people – offer a concrete and strong argument for the existence of social
phenomena. Even though country-level or state-level statistics like the number

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of deaths per 1,000 population – or the death rate – are made up by aggregating
(or adding up) individual deaths, the death rate itself is a social phenomenon
and must be explained at the social level. Emile Durkheim’s famous study
explaining the variation in suicide rates across different countries was a good
example of this. Durkheim argued that the rate of suicide (i.e., number of
suicides per 100,000 population) had to be explained by social causes even
though each particular instance of suicide may have involved reasons specific
to that individual or her/his circumstances.
Sometimes a distinction is made between formal demography and a broader
field of population studies. Formal demography is primarily concerned with the
measurement and analysis of the components of population change. Its focus
is on quantitative analysis for which it has a highly developed mathematical
methodology suitable for forecasting population growth and changes in the
composition of population. Population studies or social demography, on the
other hand, enquires into the wider causes and consequences of population
structures and change. Social demographers believe that social processes and
structures regulate demographic processes; like sociologists, they seek to trace
the social reasons that account for population trends.

2.1 Some Theories and Concepts in Demography

The Malthusian Theory of Population Growth

Among the most famous theories of demography is the one associated with the
English political economist Thomas Robert Malthus (1766–1834). Malthus’s
theory of population growth – outlined in his Essay on Population (1798) – was
a rather pessimistic one. He argued that human populations tend to grow at
a much faster rate than the rate at which the means of human subsistence
(specially food, but also clothing and other agriculture-based products) can
grow. Therefore humanity is condemned to live in poverty forever because the
growth of agricultural production will always be overtaken by population growth.
While population rises in geometric progression (i.e., like 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc.),
agricultural production can only grow in arithmetic progression (i.e., like 2, 4,
6, 8, 10, etc.). Because population growth always outstrips growth in production
of subsistence resources, the only way to increase prosperity is by controlling
the growth of population. Unfortunately, humanity has only a limited ability to
voluntarily reduce the growth of its population (through ‘preventive checks’
such as postponing marriage or practicing sexual abstinence or celibacy).
Malthus believed therefore that ‘positive checks’ to population growth – in the
form of famines and diseases – were inevitable because they were nature’s way
8 of dealing with the imbalance between food supply and increasing population.
Malthus’s theory was influential for a long time. But it was also challenged
by theorists who claimed that economic growth could outstrip population

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“The power of population is so superior to the

Box 2.1 Thomas Robert Malthus
power of the earth to produce subsistence
for man, that premature death must in (1766 – 1834)
some shape or other visit the human race.
The vices of mankind are active and able ministers
of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great
army of destruction, and often finish the dreadful
work themselves. But should they fail in this war of
extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence,
and plague advance in terrific array, and sweep off
their thousands and tens of thousands? Should success
be still incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in
the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population
with the food of the world?”
– Thomas Robert Malthus, An Essay on the
Principle of Population, 1798.

growth. However, the most effective refutation of his theory Malthus studied at Cambridge
and trained to become a
was provided by the historical experience of European
Christian priest. Later he was
countries. The pattern of population growth began to
appointed Professor of History
change in the latter half of nineteenth century, and by
and Political Economy at the
the end of the first quarter of the twentieth century these
East India Company College at
changes were quite dramatic. Birth rates had declined,
Haileybury near London, which
and outbreaks of epidemic diseases were being controlled.
was a training centre for the
Malthus’s predictions were proved false because both food
officers recruited to the Indian
production and standards of living continued to rise despite Civil Service.
the rapid growth of population.
Malthus was also criticised by liberal and Marxist
scholars for asserting that poverty was caused by population
growth. The critics argued that problems like poverty and starvation were
caused by the unequal distribution of economic resources rather than by
population growth. An unjust social system allowed a wealthy and privileged
minority to live in luxury while the vast majority of the people were forced to
live in poverty.

The Theory of Demographic Transition

Another significant theory in demography is the theory of demographic
transition. This suggests that population growth is linked to overall levels
of economic development and that every society follows a typical pattern
of development-related population growth. There are three basic stages of
population growth. The first stage is that of low population growth in a 9
society that is underdeveloped and technologically backward. Growth rates
are low because both the death rate and the birth rate are very high, so that

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the difference between the two (or the net growth rate) is
ACTIVITY 2.1 low. The third (and last) stage is also one of low growth
in a developed society where both death rate and birth
Read the section on the rate have been reduced considerably and the difference
previous page and the between them is again small. Between these two stages
quotation from Malthus in is a transitional stage of movement from a backward to
Box 2.1. One reason why an advanced stage, and this stage is characterised by very
Malthus was proved wrong high rates of growth of population.
is the substantial increases
This ‘population explosion’ happens because death
in the productivity of
rates are brought down relatively quickly through
agriculture. Can you find
advanced methods of disease control, public health,
out how these productivity
increases occurred – i.e., and better nutrition. However, it takes longer for
what were the factors that society to adjust to change and alter its reproductive
made agriculture more behaviour (which was evolved during the period of
productive? What could poverty and high death rates) to suit the new situation
be some of the other of relative prosperity and longer life spans. This kind
reasons why Malthus was of transition was effected in Western Europe during the
wrong? Discuss with your late nineteenth and early twentieth century. More or
classmates and make a less similar patterns are followed in the less developed
list with the help of your countries that are struggling to reduce the birth rate
teacher. in keeping with the falling mortality rate. In India too,
the demographic transition is not yet complete as the
mortality rate has been reduced but the birth rate has not been brought
down to the same extent.

COMMON CONCEPTS AND INDICATORS

Most demographic concepts are expressed as rates or ratios – they involve
two numbers. One of these numbers is the particular statistic that has been
calculated for a specific geographical-administrative unit; the other number
provides a standard for comparison. For example, the birth rate is the total
number of live births in a particular area (an entire country, a state, a district
or other territorial unit) during a specified period (usually a year) divided by
the total population of that area in thousands. In other words, the birth rate
is the number of live births per 1000 population. The death rate is a similar
statistic, expressed as the number of deaths in a given area during a given
time per 1000 population. These statistics depend on the reporting of births
and deaths by the families in which they occur.
The rate of natural increase or the growth rate of population refers to the
difference between the birth rate and the death rate. When this difference is
zero (or, in practice, very small) then we say that the population has ‘stabilised’,
10 or has reached the ‘replacement level’, which is the rate of growth required
for new generations to replace the older ones that are dying out. Sometimes,
societies can experience a negative growth rate, that is, their fertility levels are

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below the replacement rate. This is true of many countries

and regions in the world today, such as Japan, Russia, Italy Activity 2.2
and Eastern Europe.
The fertility rate refers to the number of live births per Try to find out why the birth
1000 women in the child-bearing age group, usually taken rate is slow to decline but
to be 15 to 49 years. But like the other rates discussed the death rate can fall
relatively fast. What are
on the previous page (the birth and death rates) this is a
some of the factors that
‘crude’ rate – it is a rough average for an entire population
might influence a family
and does not take into account the differences across age-
or couple’s decision about
groups. Differences across age groups can sometimes be
the number of children
very significant in affecting the meaning of indicators. That they should have? Ask
is why demographers also calculate age-specific rates. older people in your family
The infant mortality rate is the number of deaths of babies or neighbourhood about
before the age of one year per 1000 live births. Likewise, the possible reasons why
the maternal mortality rate is the number of women who die people in the past tended
to have more children.
in childbirth per 1,00,000 live births. High rates of infant
and maternal mortality are an unambiguous indicator of
backwardness and poverty; development is accompanied by sharp falls in these
rates as medical facilities and levels of education, awareness and prosperity
increase. One concept which is somewhat complicated is that of life expectancy.
This refers to the estimated number of years that an average person is expected
to survive. It is calculated on the basis of data on age-specific death rates in
a given area over a period of time.
The sex ratio refers to the number of females per 1000 males in a given area
at a specified time period. Historically, all over the world it has been found that
there are slightly more females than males in most countries. This is despite
the fact that, slightly more male babies are born than female ones; nature
seems to produce roughly 943 to 952 female babies for every 1000 males. If
despite this fact the sex ratio is somewhat in favour of females, this seems to
be due to two reasons. First, girl babies appear to have an advantage over boy
babies in terms of resistance to disease in infancy. At the other end of the life
cycle, women have tended to outlive men in most societies, so that there are
more older women than men. The combination of these two factors leads to a
sex ratio of roughly 1050 females per 1000 males in most contexts. However,
it has been found that the sex ratio has been declining in some countries like
China, South Korea and specially India. This phenomenon has been linked
to prevailing social norms that tend to value males much more than females,
which leads to ‘son preference’ and the relative neglect of girl babies.
The age structure of the population refers to the proportion of persons in
different age groups relative to the total population. The age structure changes
in response to changes in levels of development and the average life expectancy.
11
Initially, poor medical facilities, prevalence of disease and other factors make
for a relatively short life span. Moreover, high infant and maternal mortality

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rates also have an impact on the age structure. With development, quality of
life improves and with it the life expectancy also improves. This changes the
age structure: relatively smaller proportions of the population are found in the
younger age groups and larger proportions in the older age groups. This is also
referred to as the ageing of the population.
The dependency ratio is a measure comparing the portion of a population
which is composed of dependents (i.e., elderly people who are too old to work,
and children who are too young to work) with the portion that is in the working
age group, generally defined as 15 to 64 years. The dependency ratio is equal
to the population below 15 or above 64, divided by population in the 15-64 age
group. This is usually expressed as a percentage. A rising dependency ratio
is a cause for worry in countries that are facing an ageing population, since it
becomes difficult for a relatively smaller proportion of working-age people to
carry the burden of providing for a relatively larger proportion of dependents.
On the other hand, a falling dependency ratio can be a source of economic
growth and prosperity due to the larger proportion of workers relative to
non-workers. This is sometimes refered to as the ‘demographic dividend’,
or benefit flowing from the changing age structure. However, this benefit is
temporary because the larger pool of working age people will eventually turn
into non-working old people.

2.2 Size and Growth of India’s Population

India is the second most populous country in the world after China, with a
total population of 121 crores (or 1.21 billion) according to the Census of India
2011. As can be seen from Table 1, the growth rate of India’s population has
not always been very high. Between 1901–1951 the average annual growth
rate did not exceed 1.33%, a modest rate of growth. In fact between 1911 and
1921 there was a negative rate of growth of – 0.03%. This was because of the
influenza epidemic during 1918–19 which killed about 12.5 million persons
or 5% of the total population of the country (Visaria and Visaria 2003: 191).
The growth rate of population substantially increased after independence
from British rule going up to 2.2% during 1961-1981. Since then although
the annual growth rate has decreased it remains one of the highest in the
developing world. Chart 1 shows the comparative movement of the crude birth
and death rates. The impact of the demographic transition phase is clearly
seen in the graph where they begin to diverge from each other after the decade
of 1921 to 1931.
Before 1931, both death rates and birth rates were high, whereas, after
this transitional moment the death rates fell sharply but the birth rate only
fell slightly.
12
The principal reasons for the decline in the death rate after 1921 were
increased levels of control over famines and epidemic diseases. The latter

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Table 1: The Population of India and its Growth During

the 20th Century

Total Population Average Annual Decadal

Year
(in millions) Growth Rate (%) Growth Rate (%)

1901 238 – -
1911 252 0.56 5.8
1921 251 -0.03 -0.3
1931 279 1.04 11.0
1941 319 1.33 14.2
1951 361 1.25 13.3
1961 439 1.96 21.6
1971 548 2.22 24.8
1981 683 2.20 24.7
1991 846 2.14 23.9
2001 1028 1.95 21.5
2011 1210 1.63 17.7
Source: website: http://ayush.gov.in

Chart 1: Birth and Death Rate in India 1901-2017

60
RATE PER 1000 POPULATION

50

40

30

20

10

0
1901-10

1911-20

1921-30

1931-40

1941-50

1951-60

1961-70

1971-80

1981-90

1991

2001

2011

2017

BIRTHRate
Birth RATE DEATHRate
Death RATE

Source: National Commission on Population, Government of India.

website: http://populationcommission.nic.in/facts1.htm# National Health Profile
13
2018, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India; Economic
Survey 2018–19, Government of India.

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cause was perhaps the most important. The major epidemic diseases in
the past were fevers of various sorts, plague, smallpox and cholera. But the
single biggest epidemic was the influenza epidemic of 1918-19, which killed
as many as 170 lakh people, or about 5% of the total population of India at
that time. (Estimates of deaths vary, and some are much higher. Also known
as ‘Spanish Flu’, the influenza pandemic was a global phenomenon – see the
box below. A pandemic is an epidemic that affects a very wide geographical
area – see the glossary).

The Global Influenza Pandemic of 1918 –19 Box 2.2

Influenza is caused by a virus that attacks mainly the upper respiratory
tract – the nose, throat and bronchi and rarely also the lungs. The genetic
makeup of influenza viruses allows for both major and minor genetic changes,
making them immune to existing vaccines. Three times in the last century, the
influenza viruses have undergone major genetic changes, resulting in global
pandemics and large tolls in terms of both disease and deaths. The most infamous
pandemic was “Spanish Flu” which affected large parts of the world population
and is thought to have killed at least 40 million people in 1918-1919. More recently,
two other influenza pandemics occurred in 1957 (“Asian influenza”) and 1968
(“Hong Kong influenza”) and caused significant morbidity and mortality globally.
The global mortality rate from the 1918/1919 Spanish flu pandemic is not known, but
is estimated at 2.5 – 5% of the human population, with 20% of the world population
suffering from the disease to some extent. Influenza may have killed as many as
25 million in its first 25 weeks; in contrast, AIDS killed 25 million in its first 25 years.
Influenza spread across the world, killing more than 25 million in six months; some
estimates put the total killed at over twice that number, possibly even 100 million.
In the United States, about 28% of the population suffered, and 500,000 to 675,000
died. In Britain 200,000 died; in France more than 400,000. Entire villages perished
in Alaska and southern Africa. In Australia an estimated 10,000 people died
and in the Fiji Islands, 14% of the population died during only two weeks, and in
Western Samoa 22%. An estimated 17 million died in India, about 5% of India’s
population at the time. In the British Indian Army, almost 22% of troops who caught
the disease died of it.
While World War I did not cause the flu, the close quarters and mass movement
of troops quickened its spread. It has been speculated that the soldiers’ immune
systems were weakened by the stresses of combat and chemical attacks,
increasing their susceptibility to the disease.
Source: Compiled from Wikipedia, and World Health Organisation; Webpages:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs211/en/

In 2020–21, the whole world met with COVID–19 pandemic. Collect details from
media sources and compare with what is given in the box.
14

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Improvements in medical cures for these diseases, programmes for mass

vaccination, and efforts to improve sanitation helped to control epidemics.
However, diseases like malaria, tuberculosis, diarrhoea and dysentery continue
to kill people even today, although the numbers are nowhere as high as they
used to be in the epidemics of the past. Surat witnessed a small epidemic of
plague in September 1994, while dengue and chikungunya epidemics are since
reported in various parts of the country.
Famines were also a major and recurring source of increased mortality.
Famines were caused by high levels of continuing poverty and malnutrition
in an agroclimatic environment that was very vulnerable to variations in
rainfall. Lack of adequate means of transportation and communication as
well as inadequate efforts on the part of the state were some of the factors
responsible for famines. However, as scholars like Amartya Sen and
others have shown, famines were not necessarily due to fall in foodgrains
production; they were also caused by a ‘failure of entitlements’, or the
inability of people to buy or otherwise obtain food. Substantial improvements
in the productivity of Indian agriculture (specially through the expansion
of irrigation); improved means of communication; and more vigorous relief
and preventive measures by the state have all helped to drastically reduce
deaths from famine. Nevertheless, starvation deaths are still reported from
some backward regions of the country. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural
Employment Guarantee Act is the latest state initiative to tackle the problem
of hunger and starvation in rural areas.
Unlike the death rate, the birth rate has not registered a sharp fall. This
is because the birth rate is a sociocultural phenomenon that is relatively
slow to change. By and large, increased levels of prosperity exert a strong
downward pull on the birth rate. Once infant mortality rates decline, and
there is an overall increase in the levels of education and awareness, family
size begins to fall. There are very wide variations in fertility rates across the
States of India, as can be seen in Chart 1 (on page no. 13). Some states, like
Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal
have managed to bring down their total fertility rates (TFR) to 1.7 each
(2016). This means that the average woman in these states produces only
1.7 children, which is below the ‘replacement level’ and Kerala’s TFR is also
below the replacement level, which means that the population is going to
decline in future. But there are some states, notably Bihar, Madhya Pradesh,
Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, which still have very high TFRs. In 2016, the
TFRs of these states were 3.3, 2.8, 2.7 and 3.1, respectively. According to
Sample Registration System, Statistical report 2020, India’s crude birth
rate was 19.5. The rural birth rate was 21.1 and urban birth rate was 16.1.
As per this statistics, Bihar with 25.5 and Uttar Pradesh with 25.1 account
for the highest birth rate in India. Furthermore, as per economic survey
2018-19, these two states will also account for almost half (50%) of the additions 15
to the Indian population up to the year 2041. Uttar Pradesh alone is expected to
account for a little less than one-quarter (22%) of this increase. Chart 2 (on page

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16 Source: https://censusindia.gov.in/nada/index.php/catalog/44376

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Chart 2: Regional Shares of Projected Population

Growth upto 2041
Remaining States,
Maharashtra &
10%
Gujarat, 13%

Andhra Pradesh,
Telangana, Tamil
Nadu, Kerala &
Karnataka, 16%
Uttar Pradesh &
Bihar, 28%

West Bengal, Odisha

& Jharkhand, 13%

Punjab, Haryana & Madhya Pradesh,

Delhi, 5% Rajasthan &
Chattisgarh, 15%

Maharashtra and Gujarat (13%)

Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka (16%)
West Bengal, Odisha and Jharkhand (13%)
Punjab, Haryana and Delhi (5%)
Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh (15%)
Uttar Pradesh and Bihar (28%)
Remaining States (10%)

Source: Economic Survey 2018–19, Vol.1, P.137, Ministry of Finance, Government

of India. 17

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no.17) shows the relative contribution to population growth from different

regional groupings of States.

2.3 Age Structure of the Indian Population

India has a very young population — that is, the majority of Indians tend to
be young, and the average age is also less than that for most other countries.
Table 2 shows that the share of the under 15 age group in the total population
has come down from its highest level of 42% in 1971 to 29% in 2011. The
share of the 15–59 age group has increased slightly from 53% to 63%, while
the share of the 60+ age group is very small but it has begun to increase
(from 5% to 7%) over the same period. But the age composition of the Indian
population is expected to change significantly in the next two decades. Most
of this change will be at the two ends of the age spectrum – as Table 2 shows,
the 0 -14 age group will reduce its share by about 11% (from 34% in 2001 to
23% in 2026) while the 60 plus age group will increase its share by about 5%
(from 7% in 2001 to about 12% in 2026.) Chart 3 shows a graphical picture
of the ‘population pyramid’ from 1961 to its projected shape in 2026.

Table 2: Age Composition of the Population of India, 1961 – 2026

Year Age Group Total
0–14 Year 15–59 Year 60+ Years

1961 41 53 6 100
1971 42 53 5 100
1981 40 54 6 100
1991 38 56 7 100
2001 34 59 7 100
2011 29 63 8 100
2026 23 64 12 100

Age Group columns show percentage shares; rows may not add up to 100 because
of rounding
Source: Based on data from the Technical Group on Population Projections (1996
and 2006) of the National Commission on Population.
Webpage for 1996 Report: http://populationcommission.nic.in/facts1.htm

18

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Chart 3: Age Group Pyramids, 1961, 1981, 2001 and 2026

19

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 Indian Society

20 Source: Based on data from relevant volumes of the Census of India (1961, 1981 & 2001)
and the Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections (2006) of the National
Commission on Population.

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 The Demographic Structure of the Indian Society

Exercise for Chart 3

The Age Group ‘pyramid’ shown in Chart 3 provides a much more
detailed version of the kind of age grouped data presented in Table 2.
Here, data are shown separately for males (on the left side) and females
(on the right side) with the relevant five-year age group in the middle.
Looking at the horizontal bars (including both males and females in a
particular age group) gives you a visual sense of the age structure of
the population. The age groups begin from the 0-4 years group at the
bottom of the pyramid and go on to the 80 years and above age group
at the top. There are four different pyramids for the decennial census
years of 1961, 1981, 2001 and the estimates for 2026. The pyramid for
2026 shows the estimated future size of the relevant age groups based
on data on the past rates of growth of each age group. Such estimates
are also called ‘projections’.
These pyramids show you the effect of a gradual fall in the birth rate and
rise in the life expectancy. As more and more people begin to live to an
older age, the top of the pyramid grows wider. As relatively fewer new
births take place, the bottom of the pyramid grows narrower. But the
birth rate is slow to fall, so the bottom doesn’t change much between
1961 and 1981. The middle of the pyramid grows wider and wider as
its share of the total population increases. This creates a ‘bulge’ in the
middle age groups that is clearly visible in the pyramid for 2026. This is
what is refered to as the ‘demographic dividend’ which will be discussed
later in this chapter.
Study this chart carefully. With the help of your teacher, try to trace
what happens to the new-born generation of 1961 (the 0 – 4 age group)
as it moves up the pyramid in succesive years.
 Where will the 0 – 4 age group of 1961 be located in the pyramids
for the later years?
 Where – in which age group – is the widest part of the pyramid as
you move from 1961 to 2026?
 What do you think the shape of the pyramid might be in the year
2051 and 3001?
As with fertility rates, there are wide regional variations in the age structure
as well. While a state like Kerala is beginning to acquire an age structure like
that of the developed countries, Uttar Pradesh presents a very different picture
with high proportions in the younger age groups and relatively low proportions
among the aged. India as a whole is somewhere in the middle, because it
includes states like Uttar Pradesh as well as states that are more like Kerala.
Chart 4 shows the estimated population pyramids for Uttar Pradesh and Kerala 21
in the year 2026. Note the difference in the location of the widest parts of the
pyramid for Kerala and Uttar Pradesh.

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 Indian Society

Chart 4: Age Structure Pyramids,

Kerala and Uttar Pradesh, 2026

Source: Report of the Technical Group on Population Projections (2006) of the National
22 Commission on Population.

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 The Demographic Structure of the Indian Society

The bias towards younger age groups in the age structure is believed to
be an advantage for India. Like the East Asian economies in the past decade
and like Ireland today, India is supposed to be benefitting from a ‘demographic
dividend’. This dividend arises from the fact that the current generation of
working-age people is a relatively large one, and it has only a relatively small
preceding generation of old people to support. But there is nothing automatic
about this advantage – it needs to be consciously exploited through appropriate
policies as is explained in Box 2.3 below.

Does the changing age structure offer a ‘demographic BOX 2.3

dividend’ for India?
The demographic advantage or ‘dividend’ to be derived from the
age structure of the population is due to the fact that India is (and will remain
for some time) one of the youngest countries in the world. A third of India’s
population was below 15 years of age in 2011. In 2020, the average Indian
was only 29 years old, compared with an average age of 37 in China and
the United States, 45 in Western Europe, and 48 in Japan. This implies a large
and growing labour force, which can deliver unexpected benefits in terms of
growth and prosperity.
The ‘demographic dividend’ results from an increase in the proportion of
workers relative to non-workers in the population. In terms of age, the working
population is roughly that between 15 to 64 years of age. This working age
group must support itself as well as those outside this age group (i.e., children
and elderly people) who are unable to work and are therefore dependents.
Changes in the age structure due to the demographic transition lower the
‘dependency ratio’, or the ratio of non-working age to working-age population,
thus creating the potential for generating growth.
But this potential can be converted into actual growth only if the rise in the
working age group is accompanied by increasing levels of education and
employment. If the new entrants to the labour force are not educated then
their productivity remains low. If they remain unemployed, then they are unable
to earn at all and become dependents rather than earners. Thus, changing
age structure by itself cannot guarantee any benefits unless it is properly utilised
through planned development. The real problem is in defining the dependency
ratio as the ratio of the non-working age to working-age population, rather
than the ratio of non-workers to workers. The difference between the two is
determined by the extent of unemployment and underemployment, which
keep a part of the labour force out of productive work. This difference explains
why some countries are able to exploit the demographic advantage while
others are not.
India is indeed facing a window of opportunity created by the demographic
dividend. The effect of demographic trends on the dependency ratio defined
in terms of age groups is quite visible. The total dependency ratio fell from 79 in
1970 to 64 in 2005. But the process is likely to extend well into this century with
the age-based dependency ratio projected to fall to 48 in 2025 because of
23
continued fall in the proportion of children and then rise to 50 by 2050 because
of an increase in the proportion of the aged.

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 Indian Society

Activity 2.3 The problem, however, is employment. Data from

the Government of India sources reveal a sharp fall
in the rate of employment generation (creation of
What impact do you new jobs) across both rural and urban areas. This
think the age structure is true for the young as well. The rate of growth of
has on inter - generational employment in the 15–30 age group, which stood at
relationships? For instance, around 2.4 per cent a year between 1987 and 1994
could a high dependency for both rural and urban men, fell to 0.7 for rural men
ratio create conditions and 0.3 per cent for urban men during 1994 to 2004.
for increasing tension This suggests that the advantage offered by a young
between older and labour force is not being exploited.
younger generations? Or Strategies exist to exploit the demographic window
would it make for closer of opportunity that India has today. But India’s
relationships and stronger recent experience suggests that market forces by
bonds between young and themselves do not ensure that such strategies would
old? Discuss this in class and be implemented. Unless a way forward is found,
try to come up with a list of we may miss out on the potential benefits that the
possible outcomes and the country’s changing age structure temporarily offers.
reasons why they happen.
[Source: Adapted from an article by C.P. Chandrashekhar in
Frontline Volume 23 - Issue 01, January 14–27, 2006]

2.4 The Declining Sex-ratio in India

The sex ratio is an important indicator of gender balance in the population. As
mentioned in the section on concepts earlier, historically, the sex ratio has been
slightly in favour of females, that is, the number of females per 1000 males has
generally been somewhat higher than 1000. However, India has had a declining
sex-ratio for more than a century, as is clear from Table 3. From 972 females
per 1000 males at the turn of the twentieth century, the sex ratio has declined to
933 at the turn of the twenty-first century. The trends of the last four decades
have been particularly worrying – from 941 in 1961 the sex ratio had fallen to an
all-time low of 927 in 1991 before posting a modest increase in 2001. According
to Census of India 2011 sex ratio has increased and now it is 943 females per
1000 males.
But what has really alarmed demographers, policy makers, social activists
and concerned citizens is the drastic fall in the child sex ratio. Age specific sex
ratios began to be computed in 1961. As is shown in Table 3, the sex ratio for the
0 – 6 years age group (known as the juvenile or child sex ratio) has generally been
substantially higher than the overall sex ratio for all age groups, but it has been
falling very sharply. In fact the decade 1991–2001 represents an anomaly in that
the overall sex ratio has posted its highest ever increase of 6 points from the all time
24
low of 927 to 933, but the child sex ratio has dropped from 945 to 927, a plunge
of 18 points taking it below the overall sex ratio for the first time. In 2011 Census
(provisional) the child sex ratio again decreased by 13 points and now it is 919.

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 The Demographic Structure of the Indian Society

Table 3: The Declining Sex Ratio in India, 1901–2011

Sex ratio Variation over Child Sex ratio Variation over
Year
(all age groups) previous decade (0–6 years) previous decade
1901 972 – – –
1911 964 –8 – –
1921 955 –9 – –
1931 950 –5 – –
1941 945 –5 – –
1951 946 +1 – –
1961 941 –5 976 –
1971 930 –11 964 –12
1981 934 +4 962 –2
1991 927 –7 945 –17
2001 933 +6 927 –18
2011 943 +10 919 –8

Note: The sex ratio is defined as the number of females per 1000 males;
Data on age-specific sex ratios is not available before 1961
Source: Census of India 2011, Government of India.

The state-level child sex ratios offer even greater cause for worry. As many
as nine States and Union Territories have a child sex ratio of under 900 females
per 1000 males. Haryana is the worst state with an incredibly low child sex
ratio of 793 (the only state below 800), followed by Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir,
Delhi, Chandigarh, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh. As Map 2 shows,
Uttar Pradesh, Daman & Diu, Himachal Pradesh, Lakhshadweep and Madya
Pradesh are all under 925, while large states such as West Bengal, Assam,
Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka are above the national average
of 919 but below the 970-mark. Even Kerala, the state with the better overall
sex ratio does not do too well at 964, while the highest child sex ratio of 972
is found in Arunachal Pradesh.
Demographers and sociologists have offered several reasons for the decline
in the sex ratio in India. The main health factor that affects women differently
from men is childbearing. It is relevant to ask if the fall in the sex ratio may be
partly due to the increased risk of death in childbirth that only women face.
However, maternal mortality is supposed to decline with development, as levels
of nutrition, general education and awareness, as well as, the availability of
medical and communication facilities improves. Indeed, maternal mortality
rates have been coming down in India even though they remain high by
25
international standards. So, it is difficult to see how maternal mortality could
have been responsible for the worsening of the sex ratio over time. Combined

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 Indian Society

Map 2: Map of Child Sex Ratios (0-6 Years) Across States, 2011

26

Source: Census Report of 2011

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 The Demographic Structure of the Indian Society

with the fact that the decline in the child sex ratio has been much steeper than
the overall figure, social scientists believe that the cause has to be sought in
the differential treatment of girl babies.
Several factors may be held responsible for the decline in the child sex ratio,
including severe neglect of girl babies in infancy, leading to higher death rates;
sex-specific abortions that prevent girl babies from being born; and female
infanticide (or the killing of girl babies
due to religious or cultural beliefs). Each
of these reasons point to a serious social
problem, and there is some evidence that
all of these have been at work in India.
Practices of female infanticide have been
known to exist in many regions, while
increasing importance is being attached
to modern medical techniques by which
the sex of the baby can be determined in
the very early stages of pregnancy. The
availability of the sonogram (an x-ray like
diagnostic device based on ultra-sound
technology), originally developed to identify
genetic or other disorders in the foetus, are
misused to identify and selectively abort
female foetuses.
The regional pattern of low child sex
ratios seems to support this argument. It
is striking that the lowest child sex ratios
are found in the most prosperous regions
of India. According to the Economic
Survey for a recent year, Maharashtra,
Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi
are having high per capita income and
the child sex ratio of these states is still
low. So the problem of selective abortions
is not due to poverty or ignorance or lack
Women’s Agitation
of resources.
Sometimes economically prosperous families decide to have fewer children
– often only one or two now – they may also wish to choose the sex of their
child. This becomes possible with the availablity of ultra-sound technology,
although the government has passed strict laws banning this practice and
imposing heavy fines and imprisonment as punishment. Known as the Pre-
natal Diagnostic Techniques (Regulation and Prevention of Misuse) Act, this
law has been in force since 1996, and has been further strengthened in 2003.
However, in the long run, the solution to problems, like bias against girl children,
depends more on how social attitudes evolve, even though laws and rules can
also help. Recently, the Government of India has introduced the programme,
‘Beti-Bachao, Beti-Padhao’. It can prove to be an important policy to increase 27
the child sex ratio in the country.

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 Indian Society

2.5 Literacy
Literacy as a prerequisite to education is an instrument of empowerment.
The more literate the population the greater the consciousness of career options,
as well as participation in the knowledge economy. Further, literacy can lead
to health awareness and fuller participation in the cultural and economic
well being of the community. Literacy levels have improved considerably after
independence, and almost two-thirds of our population is now literate. But
improvements in the literacy rate have to struggle to keep up with the rate of
growth of the Indian population, which is still quite high.
Literacy varies considerably across gender, across regions, and across
social groups. As can be seen from Table 4, the literacy rate for women is
16.3% less than the literacy rate for men. However, female literacy has been
rising faster than male literacy, partly because it started from relatively low
levels. Female literacy rose by about 10.4 per cent between 2001 and 2011
compared to the rise in male literacy of 7.6 per cent in the same period.
Literacy increased approximately 8% in total. Male literacy rose about 5%
whereas female literacy rose about 10%. Again female literacy has been rising
faster than male literacy. Literacy rates also vary by social group – historically
disadvantaged communities like the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes
have lower rates of literacy, and rates of female literacy within these groups
are even lower. Regional variations are still very wide, with states like Kerala
approaching universal literacy, while states like Bihar are lagging far behind.
The inequalities in the literacy rate are specially important because they
tend to reproduce inequality across generations. Illiterate parents are at a
severe disadvantage in ensuring that their children are well educated, thus
perpetuating existing inequalities.

Table 4: Literacy Rate in India

(Percentage of population 7 years of age and above)
Male-Female gap in
Year Persons Males Females
literacy rate
1951 18.3 27.2 8.9 18.3
1961 28.3 40.4 15.4 25.1
1971 34.5 46.0 22.0 24.0
1981 43.6 56.4 29.8 26.6
1991 52.2 64.1 39.3 24.8
2001 65.4 75.9 54.2 21.7
28 2011 73.0 80.9 64.6 16.3

Source: Bose (2001:22); Census of India 2011.

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 The Demographic Structure of the Indian Society

2.6 Rural-Urban Differences

The vast majority of the population of India has always lived in the rural areas,
and that continues to be true. According to Census of India 2011 still more
people are living in rural areas but the population of urban areas has increased.
Now 68.8% population lives in rural areas while 31.2% people live in urban
areas. However, as Table 5 shows, the urban population has been increasing
its share steadily, from about 11% at the beginning of the twentieth century
to about 28% at the beginning of the twenty-first century, an increase of about
two-and-a-half times. It is not a question of numbers alone; processes of
modern development ensure that the economic and social significance of the
agrarian-rural way of life declines relative to the significance of the industrial-
urban way of life. This has been broadly true all over the world, and it is true in
India as well.

Table 5: Rural and Urban Population

Population (Millions) Percentage of Total Population

Year
Rural Urban Rural Urban
1901 213 26 89.2 10.8
1911 226 26 89.7 10.3
1921 223 28 88.8 11.2
1931 246 33 88.0 12.0
1941 275 44 86.1 13.9
1951 299 62 82.7 17.3
1961 360 79 82.0 18.0
1971 439 109 80.1 19.9
1981 524 159 76.7 23.3
1991 629 218 74.3 25.7
2001 743 286 72.2 27.8
2011 833 377 68.8 31.2

Source: http://ayush.gov.in

Agriculture used to be by far the largest contributor to the country, but

today it only contributes about one-sixth of the gross domestic product. While
the majority of our people live in the rural areas and make their living out
of agriculture, the relative economic value of what they produce has fallen
drastically. Moreover, more and more people who live in villages may no longer
29
work in agriculture or even in the village. Rural people are increasingly engaged in
non-farm rural occupations like transport services, business enterprises or

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 Indian Society

craft manufacturing. If they are close enough, then they

Activity 2.4 may travel daily to the nearest urban centre to work while
continuing to live in the village.
Do a small survey in Mass media and communication channels are now
your school to find out bringing images of urban life styles and patterns of
when (i.e., how many consumption into the rural areas. Consequently, urban
gen erati ons ago) the norms and standards are becoming well known even in
families of your fellow
the remote villages, creating new desires and aspirations
students came to live in
for consumption. Mass transit and mass communication
your area or place where
are bridging the gap between the rural and urban areas.
the school is located.
Even in the past, the rural areas were never really beyond
Tabulate the results and
discuss them in class. the reach of market forces and today they are being more
What does your survey closely integrated into the consumer market (The social role
tell you about rural-urban of markets will be discussed in Chapter 4).
migrations? Considered from an urban point of view, the rapid
growth in urbanisation shows that the town or city has been
acting as a magnet for the rural population. Those who
cannot find work (or sufficient work) in the rural areas go to the city in search
of work. This flow of rural-to-urban migration has also been accelerated by
the continuous decline of common property resources like ponds, forests and
grazing lands. These common resources enabled poor people to survive in
the villages although they owned little or no land. Now, these resources have
been turned into private property, or they are exhausted (Ponds may run dry
or no longer provide enough fish; forests may have been cut down and have
vanished…). If people no longer have access to these resources, but on the
other hand have to buy many things in the market that they used to get free
(like fuel, fodder or supplementary food items), then their hardship increases.
This hardship is worsened by the fact that opportunities for earning cash
income are limited in the villages.
Sometimes the city may also be preferred for social reasons, specially the
relative anonymity it offers. The fact that urban life involves interaction with
strangers can be an advantage for different reasons. For the socially oppressed
groups like the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes, this may offer some
partial protection from the daily humiliation they may suffer in the village where
everyone knows their caste identity. The anonymity of the city also allows the
poorer sections of the socially dominant rural groups to engage in low status
work that they would not be able to do in the village. All these reasons make
the city an attractive destination for the villagers. The swelling cities bear
testimony to this flow of population. This is evident from the rapid rate of
urbanisation in the post-Independence period.
While urbanisation has been occurring at a rapid pace, it is the biggest
30 cities – the metropolises – that have been growing the fastest. These metros
attract migrants from the rural areas as well as from small towns. There are

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 The Demographic Structure of the Indian Society

now 5,161 towns and cities in India, where 286 million people live. What is
striking, however, is that more than two-thirds of the urban population lives
in 27 big cities with million-plus populations. Clearly the larger cities in India
are growing at such a rapid rate that the urban infrastructure can hardly keep
pace. With the mass media’s primary focus on these cities, the public face of
India is becoming more and more urban rather than rural. Yet in terms of the
political power dynamics in the country, the rural areas remain a decisive force.

2.7 Population Policy in India

It will be clear from the discussion in this chapter that population dynamics is
an important matter and that it crucially affects the developmental prospects
of a nation as well as the health and well being of its people. This is particularly
true of developing countries who have to face special challenges in this regard.
It is hardly surprising therefore that India has had an official population policy
for more than a half century. In fact, India was perhaps the first country to
explicitly announce such a policy in 1952.
The population policy took the concrete form of the National Family Planning
Programme. The broad objectives of this programme have remained the same –
to try to influence the rate and pattern of population growth in socially desirable
directions. In the early days, the most important objective was to slow down
the rate of population growth through the promotion of various birth control
methods, improve public health standards, and increase public awareness

31

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 Indian Society

India’s Demographic Transition

Box 2.4
Census data from India (i.e., Registrar of India) suggests that population growth is
on the decline since 1991. The average number of children a woman expected to
give birth during her life was 3.8 in 1990, and this has fallen to 2.7 children per woman today
(Bloom, 2011). Even though the fertility and population growth rates are declining, India’s
population is projected to increase from 1.2 billion today to an estimated 1.6 billion by 2050
due to population momentum. Population momentum refers to a situation, where a large
cohort of women of reproductive age will fuel population growth over the next generation,
even if each woman has fewer children than previous generations did. Additionally, the drop
in Crude Death (CDR) and Birth Rates (CBR) for the past four decades indicates that India
is progressing towards a post-transitional phase. From 1950 to 1990, the drop in CBR was less
steep than the drop in the CDR. However, during 1990s, the decline in CBR has been steeper
than the decline in CDR, which has resulted in reduced annual population growth rate of
1.6% today. (Planning Commission 2008)

Important Goals of National Health Policy 2017

„„ Increase health expenditure by Government as a percentage Box 2.5
of GDP from the existing 1.15% to 2.5 % by 2025.
„„ Increase Life Expectancy at birth from 67.5 to 70 by 2025.
„„ Establish regular tracking of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALY) Index as a
measure of burden of disease and its trends by major categories by 2022.
„„ Reduction of TFR to 2.1 at national and sub-national level by 2025.
„„ Reduce Under Five Mortality to 23 by 2025 and Maternal Mortality Rate from
current levels to100 by 2020.
„„ Reduce neo-natal mortality to 16 and still birth rate to “single digit” by 2025.
„„ Achieve global target of 2020 which is also termed as target of 90:90:90, for
HIV/AIDS, i.e., 90% of all people living with HIV know their HIV status, 90% of all
people diagnosed with HIV infection receive sustained antiretroviral therapy,
and 90% of all people receiving antiretroviral therapy will have viral suppression.
„„ Achieve and maintain a cure rate of >85% in new sputum positive patients for
TB and reduce incidence of new cases, to reach elimination status by 2025.
„„ Reduce the prevalence of blindness to 0.25/ 1000 by 2025 and disease burden
by one third from current levels.
„„ Reduce premature mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes
or chronic respiratory diseases by 25% by 2025.
„„ Increase utilization of public health facilities by 50% from current levels by 2025
„„ Antenatal care coverage to be sustained above 90% and skilled attendance
at birth above 90% by 2025.
„„ More than 90% of the newborn are fully immunized by one year of age by 2025.
„„ Meet need of family planning above 90% at national and sub national level
by 2025 .
„„ 80% of known hypertensive and diabetic individuals at household level maintain
“controlled disease status” by 2025.
32 „„ Relative reduction in prevalence of current tobacco use by 15% by 2020 and
30% by 2025.
„„ Reduction of 40% in prevalence of stunting of under-five children by 2025.

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 The Demographic Structure of the Indian Society

„„ Access to safe water and sanitation to all by 2020.

„„ Reduction of occupational injury by half from current levels of 334 per lakh
agricultural workers by 2020.
„„ Increase State sector health spending to > 8% of their budget by 2020.
„„ Decrease in proportion of households facing catastrophic health expenditure
from the current levels by 25% by 2025.
„„ Ensure availability of paramedics and doctors as per Indian Public Health
Standard (IPHS) norm in high priority districts by 2020.
„„ Increase community health volunteers to population ratio as per IPHS norm, in
high priority districts by 2025.
„„ Establish primary and secondary care facility as per norms in high priority
districts (population as well as time to reach norms) by 2025. Ensure district–level
electronic database of information on health system components by 2020.

about population and health issues. Over the past half-century or so, India
has many significant achievements to her credit in the field of population, as
summarised in Box 2.4.
The Family Planning Programme suffered a setback during the years of the
National Emergency (1975 – 76). Normal parliamentary and legal procedures
were suspended during this time and special laws and ordinances issued
directly by the government (without being passed by Parliament) were in force.
During this time the government tried to intensify the effort to bring down
the growth rate of population by introducing a coercive programme of mass
sterilisation. Here sterilisation refers to medical procedures like vasectomy (for
men) and tubectomy (for women) which prevent conception and childbirth.
Vast numbers of mostly poor and powerless people were forcibly sterilised and
there was massive pressure on lower level government officials (like school
teachers or office workers) to bring people for sterilisation in the camps that
were organised for this purpose. There was widespread popular opposition
to this programme, and the new government elected after the Emergency
abandoned it. Box 5
The National Family Planning Programme was renamed as the National
Family Welfare Programme after the Emergency, and coercive methods were no
longer used. The programme now has a broad-based set of socio-demographic
objectives. A new set of guidelines were formulated as part of the National
Population Policy of the year 2000. In 2017, Government of India came out
with National Health Policy 2017 in which most of these socio–demographic
goals were incorporated with new targets (Box 2.5). Read these policy goals
and discuss their implications in the class.
The history of India’s National Family Welfare Programme teaches us that
while the state can do a lot to try and create the conditions for demographic 33
change, most demographic variables (specially those related to human fertility)
are ultimately matters of economic, social and cultural change.

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 Indian Society

1. Explain the basic argument of the theory of demographic transition. Why

Questions
is the transition period associated with a ‘population explosion’?

2. Why did Malthus believe that catastrophic events like famines and
epidemics that cause mass deaths were inevitable?

3. What is meant by ‘birth rate’ and ‘death rate’? Explain why the birth rate
is relatively slow to fall while the death rate declines much faster.

4. Which states in India have reached or are very near the ‘replacement levels’
of population growth? Which ones still have very high rates of population
growth? In your opinion, what could be some of the reasons for these
regional differences?

5. What is meant by the ‘age structure’ of the population? Why is it relevant

for economic development and growth?

6. What is meant by the ‘sex ratio’? What are some of the implications of a
declining sex ratio? Do you feel that parents still prefer to have sons rather
than daughters? What, in your opinion, could be some of the reasons for
this preference?

References
Bloom, David. 2011. ‘7 Billion and Counting’, Science, Vol. 333, No.562.
doi:10.1126/science.1209290 (accessed on 8 December, 2017)
Bose, Ashish. 2001. Population of India, 2001 Census Results and Methodology.
B.R. Publishing Corporation. Delhi.
Davis, Kingsley. 1951. The Population of India and Pakistan. Russel and Russel.
New York.
India, 2006. A Reference Annual. Publications Division, Government of India.
New Delhi.
Kirk, Dudley. 1968. ‘The Field of Demography’, in Sills, David. ed. International
Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences. The Free Press and Macmillan. New York.

Websites
http://populationcommission.nic.in/facts1.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/spanish_flu
http://www.who.int/mediacenter/factsheets/fs211/en/
http://censusindia.gov.in

34 https://censusindia.gov.in/nada/index.php/catalog/44376

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