applied

sciences
Article
A Statistical Mesoscale Approach to Model the Size Effect on the
Tensile Strength of Notched Woven Composites
Andrea Ferrarese * , Carlo Boursier Niutta , Alberto Ciampaglia and Davide Salvatore Paolino

Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, 10129 Turin, Italy;
[Link]@[Link] (C.B.N.); [Link]@[Link] (A.C.); [Link]@[Link] (D.S.P.)
* Correspondence: [Link]@[Link]

Abstract: The scaling of the strength of composite parts with part size is referred to as the size effect.
In the presence of notches, stress concentration affects a portion of material that increases with the
notch size. Furthermore, in woven composites, the notch and tow size can be comparable, thus
demanding a mesoscale approach to properly capture the stress intensification. In this paper, a
probabilistic mesoscale method to model the size effect in notched woven composites is presented.
First, the stress distribution is estimated with a finite element model, calibrated on experimental
Digital Image Correlation data. The FE model simulates the mesoscale heterogeneity of the woven
reinforced material and replicates the local stress intensification at the tow level. Then, a three-
parameter Weibull-based statistical model is introduced to model the probability of failure from the
calculated stress distribution and the volume of the part. An equivalent stress is used to capture
the relevant fiber and matrix failure modes and the maximum value within the specimen volume
is the random variable of the model. The method is applied to open-hole tension tests of a woven
twill carbon fiber–epoxy composite. Two specimen widths and three width-to-diameter ratios, from
3 to 12, are considered. Specimen width produced an observable size effect, whereas the variation of
hole size in the range considered did not. The statistical model is found to accurately describe the
experimental observations, efficiently replicating an inverse size effect, regardless of hole size, while
wider specimens lead to a lower probability of failure.
Citation: Ferrarese, A.; Boursier
Keywords: size effect; digital image correlation; open hole; multiscale; failure probability
Niutta, C.; Ciampaglia, A.;
Paolino, D.S. A Statistical Mesoscale
Approach to Model the Size Effect on
the Tensile Strength of Notched
Woven Composites. Appl. Sci. 2024, 1. Introduction
14, 3467. [Link] The tensile strength of composite materials can exhibit a scaling effect with structure
app14083467 size, whereas it usually decreases with increasing dimensions [1]. This phenomenon is
Academic Editors: Silvia Barbi and known as the size effect. Failure is triggered by defects in the material; for the same stress
Monia Montorsi level, a larger size implies a higher chance of encountering a large enough flaw to initiate
the failure, similarly to other brittle materials.
Received: 8 March 2024 The Weibull distribution is the most widely used model to describe the strength of brit-
Revised: 16 April 2024
tle materials. This distribution has been successfully applied to model the experimentally
Accepted: 17 April 2024
observed scaling of composite component strength [1,2]. The ultimate strength of individ-
Published: 19 April 2024
ual carbon fibers also follows a Weibull distribution, as observed in [3,4]. To correlate the
single fiber strength (microscopic failure) with the resistance of the fiber tows (mesoscale
failure), statistical models for fiber bundles have been proposed. In [5], a hierarchical bun-
Copyright: © 2024 by the authors.
dle model is proposed that describes the unidirectional composite strength starting from
Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. the Weibull-distributed single fiber strengths. The proposed method uses the weakest-link
This article is an open access article theory to estimate the property of the macroscopic bundle, attesting to the solidity of the
distributed under the terms and statistical approach to model the strength of composites.
conditions of the Creative Commons A case of size effect recurrently studied in the literature is that of open-hole tensile
Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// strength. Due to its relevance in applications like bolted or riveted fastenings, a circular
[Link]/licenses/by/ notch is usually considered. The problem has been studied with a variety of approaches
4.0/). that can be classified as follows:

Appl. Sci. 2024, 14, 3467. [Link] [Link]

Appl. Sci. 2024, 14, 3467 2 of 11

• Experimental models [6–9] that model the tensile strength of open-hole specimens
with empirical formulations based on the observed failures. Full-field strain analysis
was employed in [10,11];
• Numerical models that describe the complexity of the problem, accounting for different
damage models describing the interaction of failure modes (e.g., delamination, in-
plane cracking) [12–20] or advanced finite element methods [21,22];
• Hybrid methods that combine experimental observation with numerical models using,
e.g., full-field measurement of the strain field with Digital Image Correlation (DIC) [23];
• Analytical methods that draw the exact stress field around the notch from equilibrium
and constitutive equations to estimate the component failure [24].
In this work, experiments and finite element modeling are used as the basis for a
statistical approach.
Most existing studies on open-hole strength focused on unidirectional fiber composites;
however, woven reinforcements introduce a further layer of complexity in stress analysis.
While they can be considered to behave as a homogeneous material at the macroscopic
scale, at a scale close to that of their representative volume element (RVE), the material
heterogeneity induces stress concentrations that could interact with the notch intensification.
This is the case of open-hole notches with a hole diameter in the scale of a few millimeters,
such as those drilled for fasteners. Full-field techniques such as DIC can be used to study
the heterogeneous strain field at the mesoscale. In [25], the authors proposed a multiscale
methodology that made use of image processing to build a finite element model (FEM),
which contains material orientation information, and an FEM-Updating (FEMU) scheme,
which made use of DIC strain measurement data to extrapolate the tow-level material
properties and the full stress field in an open-hole tensile specimen. In most of the literature
that has been reviewed, the usually encountered geometrical scaling parameters are either
width-to-diameter ratio or thickness (ply scaling). For this study, width and width-to-
diameter ratio were selected instead.
Starting from the previously developed DIC-FEMU methodology, which allows the
study of constituent materials of a heterogenous composite at the mesoscale level, this work
proposes a statistical approach to describe the open-hole notch size effect on the ultimate
strength of woven composites. The methodology is applied to specimens with variable
hole diameters and widths. An equivalent stress is used to capture the relevant fiber and
matrix failure modes, while its maximum value within the specimen volume is the random
variable of the model. Model parameters are determined via optimization, by minimizing
the error between empirical and model-calculated probabilities of failure.
The remainder of the article is structured as follows: Section 2 describes the mechanical
testing, the procedure for the identification of material parameters, the numerical model,
the statistical model, and the identification of the relative parameters; Section 3 presents
the results of the experiments, of the numerical modeling, and of the statistical model; and
finally, in Section 4, conclusions are drawn on the fitness of the numerical and statistical
models to describe size effect.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Material and Mechanical Testing
The specific material under examination is a carbon fiber-reinforced epoxy prepreg,
supplied by Microtex Composite (GG630 T125 12K, 37% resin), consisting of an E3-150 resin
matrix and carbon fibers woven in a 2 × 2 twill pattern. An autoclave curing process with
a maximum temperature of 135 ◦ C and a maximum pressure of 6 bar was used to produce
a laminate with a fiber volume fraction close to 50%. A [0/90/0] stacking sequence yielded
an approximately 2 mm cured thickness. Rectangular specimens measuring 250 mm in
length and 24 mm in width were machined and drilled with round holes in their center.
Six open-hole notched specimen configurations were considered, combining two
different widths with three width-to-diameter ratios. The ASTM D5766 standard for open-
hole tensile strength testing [26] suggests a ratio equal to six, which has been taken as the
 Six open-hole notched specimen configurations were considered, combining two
different widths with three width-to-diameter ratios. The ASTM D5766 standard for open-
hole tensile strength testing [26] suggests a ratio equal to six, which has been taken as the
average value in the present study, where the width-to-diameter ratio spans from three to
Appl. Sci. 2024, 14, 3467 3 of 11
twelve. A summary of the specimen dimensions is provided in Table 1, alongside the
specimen labels used in the following research.
average value in the present study, where the width-to-diameter ratio spans from three
Table 1. Specimen dimensions: length 𝑙, width 𝑤, hole diameter 𝐷, and width-to-diameter ratio
to twelve. A summary of the specimen dimensions is provided in Table 1, alongside the
𝑤/𝐷.
specimen labels used in the following research.
Specimen l [mm] w [mm] D [mm] w/D
Table 1.
C20 250length l, width w, hole
Specimen dimensions: 24 diameter D,Unnotched —w/D.
and width-to-diameter ratio

C21
Specimen 250
l [mm] 24
w [mm] 2
D [mm] w/D12
C22
C20 250
250 24
24 4
Unnotched — 6
C23
C21 250
250 24
24 2 8 12 3
C22
C31 250
250 24
36 4 3 6 12
C23 250 24 8 3
C32
C31
250
250
36
36 3
6 12
6
C33
C32 250
250 36
36 6 12 6 3
C33 250 36 12 3
Quasi-static tensile tests were carried out on an Instron 8001 hydraulic universal
testingQuasi-static
machine, adopting a procedure
tensile tests derived
were carried from
out on an the ASTM
Instron 8001D3039 standard
hydraulic [27] and
universal
a testing
displacement rate of 2 mm/min. Three specimens per configuration
machine, adopting a procedure derived from the ASTM D3039 standard [27] and were tested. An 8.9
Mpx stereo camera
a displacement ratesystem was usedThree
of 2 mm/min. to record the tests,
specimens per capturing
configurationa complete viewAn
were tested. of the
8.9 Mpx stereo
specimens’ free camera
span ofsystem
145 mm wasbetween
used to record the tests,
the machine capturing
grips. a complete
To enable DIC, aview of
black-on-
the specimens’ free span of 145 mm between the machine grips. To enable
white speckle design was airbrushed onto the specimens. Prior to the application of theDIC, a black-on-
white speckle
speckle pattern,design
images wasof airbrushed
the unpaintedontospecimens
the specimens.
on thePrior to thefixture
testing application
were of the
captured
speckle pattern, images of the unpainted specimens on the testing fixture were
(Figure 1a) to aid in constructing the FEM, as described later in Section 2.2. The speckle captured
(Figure 1a) to aid in constructing the FEM, as described later in Section 2.2. The speckle
images were analyzed using the VIC 3D 9.1.6 DIC software from Correlated Solution, with
images were analyzed using the VIC 3D 9.1.6 DIC software from Correlated Solution, with
an optimal subset size of 31 px and a subset step of 6 px. These parameters have been set
an optimal subset size of 31 px and a subset step of 6 px. These parameters have been
following [28], which recommends keeping the step size below one-third of the subset
set following [28], which recommends keeping the step size below one-third of the subset
size.
[Link]
DICwas
wasutilized
utilized toto track the in-plane
track the in-planedisplacements
displacements and
and strains
strains ononthethe surface
surface of the
of the
specimens and the load was recorded with a 100 kN
specimens and the load was recorded with a 100 kN load cell. load cell.

(a) (b) (c)

Figure
[Link]
The22××2 2twill
twillfabric
fabric unit
unit cell. (a) Detail
cell. (a) Detailofofthe
thespecimen
specimen surface
surface captured
captured before
before testing;
testing;
(b) schematization of the previous image, showing how the vertical (warp) and horizontal
(b) schematization of the previous image, showing how the vertical (warp) and horizontal (weft) fiber (weft)
fiber tows are woven; and (c) further simplification used to build the FEM, with two material
tows are woven; and (c) further simplification used to build the FEM, with two material orientations
orientations (shown in two shades of gray) and two layers of integration points. Global coordinates
(shown in two shades of gray) and two layers of integration points. Global coordinates are shown in
are shown in black, with y being the tensile loading direction. Local material coordinates are in
black, with y being the tensile loading direction. Local material coordinates are in orange; 1 is the
orange; 1 is the “fiber direction” and 2 is the “matrix direction” [25].
“fiber direction” and 2 is the “matrix direction” [25].

2.2. Numerical Model and Data-Driven Determination of Material Properties

In this section, the characterization of the material response obtained with the tensile
test and DIC is presented and how it has been used to calibrate a mesoscale model. Twill
carbon fiber fabric is constituted by orthotropic bundles of fibers (tows) interwoven in
 2.2. Numerical Model and Data-Driven Determination of Material Properties
In this section, the characterization of the material response obtained with the tensile
Appl. Sci. 2024, 14, 3467 4 of 11
test and DIC is presented and how it has been used to calibrate a mesoscale model. Twill
carbon fiber fabric is constituted by orthotropic bundles of fibers (tows) interwoven in
orthogonal directions, as is visible in an image of a specimen in Figure 1a and represented
orthogonal directions,
schematically in Figure as1b.
is visible
Underinmechanical
an image ofloading,
a specimen in Figure
complex 1aand
stress and strain
represented
fields
arise in the material due to this heterogeneity. While the surface strain fieldfields
schematically in Figure 1b. Under mechanical loading, complex stress and strain arise
is readily
in the material due to this heterogeneity. While the surface strain field is readily
available via DIC, obtaining the stress field requires further processing of the experimental available
via DIC,
data. Thisobtaining
study madethe stress
use offield requires 2D
a simplified further
shellprocessing of the
finite element experimental
model that is able data.
to
This study made use of a simplified 2D shell finite element model that
properly capture the stress, as was developed in [25]. A more concise description of the is able to properly
capture the stress, as was developed in [25]. A more concise description of the model is
model is reported in this section.
reported in this section.
Each open-hole tensile test was reproduced numerically with a finite element model,
Each open-hole tensile test was reproduced numerically with a finite element model,
replicating each specimen’s specific material distribution. The mesoscale heterogeneity is
replicating each specimen’s specific material distribution. The mesoscale heterogeneity
modeled using two orthotropic materials with identical properties and orthogonal
is modeled using two orthotropic materials with identical properties and orthogonal
orientations (Figure 1c). A map of the fiber orientation on the surface of the specimen is
orientations (Figure 1c). A map of the fiber orientation on the surface of the specimen
reconstructed, using image processing and positional data from DIC, and the material
is reconstructed, using image processing and positional data from DIC, and the material
orientation is assigned to each corresponding element in the FEM with an automated
orientation is assigned to each corresponding element in the FEM with an automated
algorithm developed in Python. This mapping process, implemented in MATLAB R2021b,
algorithm developed in Python. This mapping process, implemented in MATLAB R2021b,
is described in Figure 2. The tows with vertically aligned fibers are visible in the images
is described in Figure 2. The tows with vertically aligned fibers are visible in the images of
of unpainted specimens, due to their reflectivity. Their location on the specimen’s surface
unpainted specimens, due to their reflectivity. Their location on the specimen’s surface is
is identified
identified viavia a K-means
a K-means image
image clustering
clustering on on
thethe image
image andand
alsoalso
via via position
position datadata
fromfrom
the
the calibrated DIC analysis. A map of the material orientation is then
calibrated DIC analysis. A map of the material orientation is then built using the known built using the
known
unit cellunit cell dimensions
dimensions of the
of the twill twill fabric.
fabric.

(a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f)

Figure
Figure 2.
[Link]
Constructionofofthethe
specimen
specimen material orientation
material map.
orientation (a) Raw
map. .tiff image
(a) Raw captured
.tiff image using
captured
one of the DIC cameras; (b) by clustering and filtering, the tows with vertically aligned fibers
using one of the DIC cameras; (b) by clustering and filtering, the tows with vertically aligned fibers
emerging on the specimen surface are identified; (c) the centroid of the tows are calculated; (d) using
emerging on the specimen surface are identified; (c) the centroid of the tows are calculated; (d) using
optimization, an exact grid of points (in red) is fitted to the centroids (in blue); (e) the area belonging
optimization,
to the verticalan exact
tows grid of points
is selected; (in map
and (f) red) is
offitted to the centroids
the material (in blue);
orientation used to (e)assign
the area
thebelonging
material
to the vertical tows is selected;
orientation in the FEM [25]. and (f) map of the material orientation used to assign the material
orientation in the FEM [25].
The finite element mesh is automatically generated from the specimen image with
the The finite element
open-source mesh issoftware
meshing automatically
GMESHgenerated fromand
v.4.8.4 the specimen
parsed image with the
to LS-DYNA
open-source meshing software GMESH v.4.8.4 and parsed to LS-DYNA ([Link]
([Link] The laminate is modeled with a single layer of four-node
[Link]/). The laminate is modeled with a single layer of four-node Belythscko-Tsay
Belythscko-Tsay shell elements with a number of through-thickness integration points
shell elements with a number of through-thickness integration points equal to twice the
equal to twice the number of layers in the specimen. Each ply in the physical composite
number of layers in the specimen. Each ply in the physical composite specimens is, indeed,
specimens is, indeed, represented by two layers of through-thickness integration points,
represented by two layers of through-thickness integration points, to capture the structure
to capture the structure of interlocking tows (Figure 1c).
of interlocking tows (Figure 1c).
A mesh convergence study led to the identification of an ideal mesh size of 0.5 mm,
A mesh convergence study led to the identification of an ideal mesh size of 0.5 mm,
corresponding to 10 × 20 elements for each fiber tow. Mesh refinement around the hole
corresponding to 10 × 20 elements for each fiber tow. Mesh refinement around the hole gave
gave a minimum mesh size of 0.05 mm. The material model used was orthotropic linear
a minimum mesh size of 0.05 mm. The material model used was orthotropic linear elastic
elastic *MAT_002 from LS-Dyna. Boundary conditions are fully constrained at one narrow
*MAT_002 from LS-Dyna. Boundary conditions are fully constrained at one narrow end of
end of the specimens and are fully constrained, save for free displacement in the loading
the specimens and are fully constrained, save for free displacement in the loading direction
direction on the other, replicating the conditions at the grips of the hydraulic testing
on the other, replicating the conditions at the grips of the hydraulic testing machine.
machine.
The elastic properties were determined through an optimization process, which mini-
mized the quadratic difference between the numerical and experimental (DIC) full-field
strains under the same load. A plain, unnotched specimen was used for this stage. All
the experimental tests were then simulated with a calibrated model up to the failure load,
using the identified elastic properties and the heterogeneous material distribution defined
Appl. Sci. 2024, 14, 3467 5 of 11

with the procedure described previously. The displacements at failure from the numerical
model were compared with the experimental results to assess the accuracy of the method.

2.3. Statistical Model

This section contains a description of how the stress states extracted from the calibrated
model have been used to study the scale effect on the strength of the single tow through a
statistical approach.

2.3.1. The Equivalent Stress

Significant shear stresses arise in the open-hole tensile testing of woven composite
materials, due to the stress intensification induced by the presence of the notch. More-
over, differently from homogeneous materials, the local stress field is altered from the
heterogeneous material distribution. This results in further local stress concentration. To
appropriately consider these two factors in the numerical model, an equivalent stress was
introduced for the orthotropic material, which represents the single tow.
This equivalent stress, whose formulation follows the Tsai–Hill failure criterion, has
four quadratic terms, considering longitudinal (fiber direction) tensile stress, transverse
tensile stress, their interaction, and shear stress. For the i-th element, it is defined as follows:

σ2eq,i = φ21 σ21,i + φ22 σ22,i + φ23 σ1,i σ2,i + φ24 σ212,i , (1)

where σ1, i , σ2, i , and σ12, i are, respectively, the fiber-direction tensile, transverse tensile,
and shear stress in the i-th element; and φ1 , φ2 , φ3 , and φ4 are parameters related to the
material strength, to be estimated from experimental results.
In the following, the limit value of the equivalent stress of the material is expressed
statistically, modeling the scale effect that describes the variation of the material strength
with the critical volume (i.e., the volume subjected to critical stress).

2.3.2. The Statistical Size Effect

Modeling the relationship between the material strength and the critical volumes
requires knowledge of the stress field in the analyzed structure. Considering the comparable
dimensions of the notch and material bundles, the scale effect is, here, modeled at a
mesoscopic level, necessitating the determination of the stress field and the critical volume
at the mesoscale through the heterogeneous FEM introduced in Section 2.2.
Following and adapting the statistical approach proposed in [29] for modeling the
size effect in the fatigue response of components, the maximum equivalent stress in the
component σeq, max is, here, the random variable. Through a linear elastic FEM, the volume
of the part—in this case, the specimen—is discretized in sub-volumes characterized by
the same equivalent stress, σeq, i . The larger the equivalent stress, the higher the failure
probability of the sub-volume. Furthermore, according to the weakest-link principle,
the larger the sub-volume characterized by a specific equivalent stress, the higher the
probability of failure. If the equivalent failure stress, σ f ,i , of an individual element follows
a Weibull distribution [1], the reliability of a single element is then:
"   #

σeq, i β
Rσ f ,i σeq, i = exp − , (2)
ηi

where β and η i are the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distribution, respectively.
The dependence of the element reliability on its volume, vi , is modeled by expressing the
scale parameter as:
η i = α ( vi )γ , (3)
where α and γ are two parameters, to be estimated from experimental results.
Appl. Sci. 2024, 14, 3467 6 of 11

Considering now a part or component, consisting of n elements, its reliability, R part ,

according to the weakest-link principle is:
h     i
R part = P σ f ,1 > σeq, 1 and . . . σ f ,i > σeq, i and . . . σ f ,n > σeq, n =
h i h i h i nel (4)
= P σ f ,1 > σeq, 1 · . . . · P σ f ,i > σeq, i · . . . · P σ f ,n > σeq, n = ∏ Rσ f ,i σeq, i .


i =1

The ratio of each element’s equivalent stress, σeq, i , to the maximum, σeq, max , in the
entire component will be indicated, in the following, as:
σeq, i
σeq, ratio,i = . (5)
σeq, max

Substituting (2) in (4), applying a logarithmic transformation, and introducing the

variable σeq, ratio,i , as per (5), the probability of failure of the part, Fpart , becomes:
"
β #
nel σeq, ratio,i
∑


β
Fpart σeq, max = 1 − R part = 1 − exp − σeq, max i =1
, (6)
α ( vi )δ

where vi and σeq, ratio,i are, respectively, the volume and the equivalent stress ratio in the
i-th out of n elements, in which the component is subdivided; and α, β, and δ = β·γ are
three parameters.

2.3.3. Statistical Model Parameter Optimization

The three model parameters, as well as the four φ parameters for the equivalent stress
formulation, are determined from the experimental data using an optimization procedure.
First, the experimental maximum equivalent stress within every tested specimen was
calculated with Equation (1) from the stress fields computed in the FEM at failure load.
Benard’s approximation of the median rank was then used to estimate the empirical
cumulative distribution function (CDF), Fexp , of these observations:

i − 0.3
Fexp = , (7)
N + 0.4
where i is the rank of the observation and N is the total number of tests. For the model
to correctly represent this distribution, it must hold that the calculated probability of
failure, Fmod , is as close as possible to the empirical, Fexp , one. Therefore, in an Fexp – Fmod
probability–probability plot, all points should lie on the bisector. The four model parameters
were determined by minimizing the ratio of the residual sum of squares and the total sum
of squares in such a plot, with the calculated probability of failure as the independent
variable and the empirical probability as the dependent variable. The objective function
was minimized using the Nelder–Mead simplex algorithm [30], implemented in MATLAB.

3. Results
In this section, the results of the experimental testing, of the numerical modeling, and
of the fitting of the proposed statistical scaling law to all the experiments are presented
and discussed.

3.1. Experimental and Material Property Identification Results

All specimens experienced brittle failure in a single point along their free span. For
notched specimens, the failure surface always passed through the hole. Experimental
failure loads and experimental displacements at failure recorded for each specimen are
shown in Table 2.
Appl. Sci. 2024, 14, 3467 7 of 11

Table 2. Experimental failure load, experimental failure displacement, FEM failure displacement, and
the percentage error between them for each specimen.

Specimen Pexp,max [kN] dexp [mm] dFEM [mm] d err%

C21_1 30.929 −1.631 −1.616 0.96%
C21_2 30.976 −1.663 −1.622 2.49%
C21_3 30.778 −1.656 −1.608 2.92%
C22_1 26.811 −1.528 −1.430 6.44%
C22_2 25.768 −1.427 −1.374 3.71%
C22_3 25.768 −1.461 −1.372 6.04%
C23_1 20.957 −1.385 −1.209 12.69%
C23_2 20.749 −1.276 −1.200 5.96%
C23_3 22.075 −1.366 −1.277 6.47%
C31_1 48.570 −1.654 −1.701 −2.85%
C31_2 50.791 −1.740 −1.778 −2.17%
C31_3 47.376 −1.593 −1.657 −4.01%
C32_1 39.633 −1.424 −1.428 −0.25%
C32_2 37.551 −1.357 −1.353 0.35%
C32_3 41.111 −1.452 −1.481 −2.00%
C33_1 32.262 −1.380 −1.303 5.54%
C33_2 31.440 −1.302 −1.270 2.41%
C33_3 31.150 −1.286 −1.270 1.25%

The material properties identified in the data-driven optimization process described

in Section 2.2 are summed up in Table 3. It is worth noting that, with the material mapping
process, the woven composite has been subdivided into its constituent unidirectional fiber
bundles at the mesoscale level. Therefore, the mechanical properties reported here belong
to this material, not to the woven composite at the macroscopic scale.

Table 3. Material properties that were identified through optimization and then used in finite element
models.

Property E1 [GPa] E2 [GPa] G12 [GPa] υ12

Value 102.388 15.519 1.891 0.050

Together with the experimental failure loads, these properties were used in the simu-
lation of each open-hole tensile test. The displacement at failure in the numerical model
and its percentage error with the experimental measurement are reported in the last two
columns of Table 2. The latter was calculated as the difference between the experimental
and numerical displacements, normalized over the experimental displacement. The results
show an average absolute error of 3.81%, with a standard deviation of 3.03%.

3.2. Statistical Model

Due to the availability of only three replications per width-to-diameter ratio, the
specimens were subdivided in two groups based on their width, which was considered
as the scale parameter’s dominating size effect. This assumption was corroborated by the
results of the model, as will be noted later. Two separate empirical and model-estimated
statistical distributions were, therefore, constructed—one for the 24 mm wide specimens
and one for the 36 mm wide ones. A probability–probability plot can be used as a tool
to compare the two cumulative distribution functions and assess the goodness of fit of
the model to the empirical data. Figure 3 shows the probability–probability plot of the
estimated CDF (Fmod ) versus the experimental empirical CDF (Fexp ), after having optimized
the four parameters of the model.
 statistical distributions were, therefore, constructed—one for the 24 mm wide specimens
and one for the 36 mm wide ones. A probability–probability plot can be used as a tool to
compare the two cumulative distribution functions and assess the goodness of fit of the
model to the empirical data. Figure 3 shows the probability–probability plot of the
Appl. Sci. 2024, 14, 3467 estimated CDF ( 𝐹𝑚𝑜𝑑 ) versus the experimental empirical CDF ( 𝐹𝑒𝑥𝑝 ), after having8 of 11
optimized the four parameters of the model.

Figure
Figure 3. Probability–probability diagram
3. Probability–probability diagram of of the
the estimated
estimated CDF CDF (𝐹(Fmod )) versus
versus the
the experimental
experimental
empirical CDF (F
empirical for the
(𝐹exp ) for the 24
24 mmmm wide
wide (in
(in blue)
blue) and
and 36 36mm
mmwide
widespecimens
specimens (in
(inorange).
orange). The
The
coefficient of
coefficient determination, R𝑅2 , ,of
of determination, ofthe
theleast
leastsquares
squaresfit
fitofofthe
thebisector
bisectortotothe
thepoints
pointsisisalso
alsoshown.
shown.

The
The coefficient
coefficientofofdetermination
determination of of
thethe
statistical predictions
statistical withwith
predictions the experimental
the experimentaldata
is R2 =
data 𝑅 =as
is 94%, 94%reported in Figurein3,Figure
, as reported demonstrating that the calibrated
3, demonstrating that the model accurately
calibrated model
describes
accuratelythe size effect
describes the governing the failurethe
size effect governing of the notched
failure of thespecimens. All of theAll
notched specimens. dataof
points lie close to the bisector; however, the model tends to slightly overestimate
the data points lie close to the bisector; however, the model tends to slightly overestimate the
probability
the probability for the narrower
for the narrower specimens
specimens and andunderestimate
underestimate it for the
it for thewider
widerones.
[Link] At the
the
cost
cost ofof additional
additional computational
computational costcost and
and complication,
complication, an an ever
ever better
better model
model fitfit could
could
potentially
potentially be be obtained,
obtained, introducing
introducing additional
additional specimen
specimen volume-dependent
volume-dependent parameters,
parameters,
e.g.,
e.g., the
the shape
shape parameter
parameter β.𝛽.
The
The model
model parameters
parameters identified
identified with
with thethe optimization
optimization procedure
procedure are are listed
listed inin the
the
following
following two tables: the four equivalent stress parameters are listed in Table 4 and the
two tables: the four equivalent stress parameters are listed in Table 4 and the
three
three statistical
statistical model
model parameters
parameters areare listed
listedininTable
Table5. 5.

Table 4. The
Table 4. The four
four equivalent
equivalent stress
stress parameters
parameters estimated
estimatedfrom
fromthe
theexperimental
experimentaldata.
data.

𝝋1𝟏
φ 𝝋2𝟐
φ 𝝋3𝟑
φ 𝝋4𝟒
φ
0.0613
0.0613 0.5823
0.5823 0.3033
0.3033 1.1198
1.1198

Table 5. The three statistical model parameters estimated from the experimental data.

α β δ
0.0712 14.6509 −31.5353

The four φ parameters in Table 4 govern how the stresses are combined in the equiv-
alent stress formulation. It can be observed how φ1 , the coefficient to the fiber-direction
stresses σ1 , is an order of magnitude smaller than the other terms. This mirrors the ratio
between the longitudinal and transverse stresses in the material and indicates that the
relative importance of the two in the failure mechanism is similar. The calibrated model
 0.0712 14.6509 −31.5353

The four 𝜑 parameters in Table 4 govern how the stresses are combined in the
equivalent stress formulation. It can be observed how 𝜑 , the coefficient to the fiber-
Appl. Sci. 2024, 14, 3467
direction stresses 𝜎 , is an order of magnitude smaller than the other terms. This mirrors
9 of 11
the ratio between the longitudinal and transverse stresses in the material and indicates
that the relative importance of the two in the failure mechanism is similar. The calibrated
model provides a CDF for each specimen width, as plotted in Figure 4. An inverse size
provides a CDF for each specimen width, as plotted in Figure 4. An inverse size effect is
effect is apparent from the curves. For a given probability of failure, the critical equivalent
apparent from the curves. For a given probability of failure, the critical equivalent stress
stress in the wider specimens (w = 36 mm) is lower than the one predicted for the narrower
in the wider specimens (w = 36 mm) is lower than the one predicted for the narrower
specimens (w
specimens (w == 24
24 mm).
mm). InIn the
the authors’
authors’ opinion,
opinion, the
the size
size effect observed could
effect observed could stem
stem from
from
a geometrical effect. The highest stresses arising from the concentration
a geometrical effect. The highest stresses arising from the concentration around the hole around the hole
are carried by the tows in the longitudinal direction. For a scaled-up specimen, as in aa 36
are carried by the tows in the longitudinal direction. For a scaled-up specimen, as in 36
mm wide
mm wide versus
versus aa 24
24 mm
mm wide
wide one,
one, the
the relative
relative size
size of
of the
the tow
tow toto the
the hole
hole decreases.
decreases. This
This
leads to a lowering in the effective stress concentration factor for the tows around
leads to a lowering in the effective stress concentration factor for the tows around the hole, the hole,
due to
due to aa larger
larger relative
relative radius
radius of of the
the hole
hole compared
compared to to tow
tow size.
size. The
The resulting
resulting improved
improved
distribution of stresses in the immediate vicinity of the hole enhances
distribution of stresses in the immediate vicinity of the hole enhances the load-bearing the load-bearing
capacity of
capacity of the
the material.
material. AA similar effect occurs
similar effect occurs for
for transverse
transverse stresses.
stresses.

Figure 4. Model cumulative distribution function of the maximum equivalent stress for the 24 mm
Figure 4. Model cumulative distribution function of the maximum equivalent stress for the 24 mm
and
and 36
36 mm
mm specimen
specimen types.
types. Experimental
Experimental observations
observations are
are shown
shown as
as individual
individual markers.
markers.

The different specimen width-to-hole diameter ratios are indicated in the plot with
The different specimen width-to-hole diameter ratios are indicated in the plot with
different markers. The observed distribution of the specimen hole diameters in each group
different markers. The observed distribution of the specimen hole diameters in each group
confirms the approach taken, which considers only specimen width as the size effect scaling
confirms the approach taken, which considers only specimen width as the size effect
factor. Hole sizes are mixed up along the curve, suggesting a lesser impact on size effect of
scaling factor. Hole sizes are mixed up along the curve, suggesting a lesser impact on size
width-to-diameter in the range considered. This is especially true for the wider specimens.
effect of width-to-diameter in the range considered. This is especially true for the wider
For example, a C33 specimen, with the largest hole diameter in the width group, has the
specimens. For example, a C33 specimen, with the largest hole diameter in the width
third lowest equivalent stress, while a C31 specimen, with the smallest hole diameter,
group, has the third lowest equivalent stress, while a C31 specimen, with the smallest hole
shows the third highest equivalent stress.
diameter, shows the third highest equivalent stress.
4. Conclusions
A statistical model has been proposed that describes the mesoscale size effect on
the strength of open-hole woven-reinforcement composites under tension, building on
methods proposed in previous works by the authors. The statistical model relies on a
discretization of the component into sub-volumes, subjected to the same equivalent stress,
computed with a mesoscale finite element model built from the local orientation of the
woven fiber reinforcement, measured experimentally. An equivalent stress is defined at
the material mesoscale, with four quadratic terms, similar to the Tsai–Hill failure criterion.
The maximum equivalent stress is the random variable in the model, whose probability
is governed by the scale effect. The statistical model calibrated on experimental results
of open-hole tensile tests showed a remarkable accuracy in describing the mesoscopic
scale effect governing the failure of woven tows. The mesoscale finite element model
Appl. Sci. 2024, 14, 3467 10 of 11

that accounts for the variation of the stress fields due to the material heterogeneity, and
the stress intensification induced by the notch, is a cornerstone of the proposed method.
From the mesoscale stress field computed with the finite element model, the statistical
model accurately predicts the experimental results with a 94% coefficient of determination.
For a given probability of failure, the model predicts a lower critical equivalent stress in
wider specimens.
In summary, the proposed method is an efficient tool to predict the component strength
accounting for both the material heterogeneity and the scale effect that governs the failure
of the carbon fiber tows of the woven composite. It is worth noting that the proposed
methodology, while used here to study the circular notch size effect, has the potential to
be applied to unnotched specimens, other types of notches, or composites with different
types of woven reinforcements, including hybrid ones. Another possible development is
the homogenization of the mesoscale model in a homogeneous, macroscale one, to provide
a readily applicable design criterion for notched composite parts.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, D.S.P.; methodology, A.F. and D.S.P.; investigation, A.F.;
writing—original draft preparation, A.C., A.F. and C.B.N.; writing—review and editing, D.S.P.;
supervision, D.S.P. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.
Funding: This research received no external funding.
Data Availability Statement: The data presented in this study are available on request from the
corresponding author.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References
1. Wisnom, M.R. Size Effects in the Testing of Fibre-Composite Materials. Compos. Sci. Technol. 1999, 59, 1937–1957. [CrossRef]
2. Kumar Singh, K.; Shanmugam, R.; Touhid Alam Ansari, M.; Gaurav, A. Reliability Analysis of Angle Ply Woven GFRP Composite
under In-Plane Loading Condition Using Two Parameter Weibull Distribution. Mater. Today Proc. 2023, in press. [CrossRef]
3. Marston, C.; Gabbitas, B.; Adams, J.; Nutt, S.; Marshall, P.; Galiotis, C. Failure Characteristics in Carbon/Epoxy Composite Tows.
Compos. Part A Appl. Sci. Manuf. 1996, 27, 1183–1194. [CrossRef]
4. Mesquita, F.; Breite, C.; Lomov, S.V.; Swolfs, Y. In-Situ Synchrotron Computed Tomography Tensile Testing of Composite
Specimens to Estimate Fibre Strength Weibull Parameters. Compos. Sci. Technol. 2022, 229, 109710. [CrossRef]
5. Pimenta, S.; Pinho, S.T. Hierarchical Scaling Law for the Strength of Composite Fibre Bundles. J. Mech. Phys. Solids 2013, 61,
1337–1356. [CrossRef]
6. Awerbuch, J.; Madhukar, M.S. Notched Strength of Composite Laminates: Predictions and Experiments—A Review. J. Reinf.
Plast. Compos. 1985, 4, 3–159. [CrossRef]
7. Martin, E.; Leguillon, D.; Carrère, N. An Extension of the Point-Stress Criterion Based on a Coupled Stress and Energy Fulfilment:
Application to the Prediction of the Open-Hole Tensile Strength of a Composite Plate. In Structural Integrity and Durability of
Advanced Composites: Innovative Modelling Methods and Intelligent Design; Elsevier: Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 2015; pp. 425–444.
[CrossRef]
8. Xu, X.; Wisnom, M.R.; Mahadik, Y.; Hallett, S.R. An Experimental Investigation into Size Effects in Quasi-Isotropic Carbon/Epoxy
Laminates with Sharp and Blunt Notches. Compos. Sci. Technol. 2014, 100, 220–227. [CrossRef]
9. Green, B.G.; Wisnom, M.R.; Hallett, S.R. An Experimental Investigation into the Tensile Strength Scaling of Notched Composites.
Compos. Part A Appl. Sci. Manuf. 2007, 38, 867–878. [CrossRef]
10. Pierron, F.; Green, B.G.; Wisnom, M.R. Full-Field Assessment of the Damage Process of Laminated Composite Open-Hole Tensile
Specimens. Part I: Methodology. Compos. Part A Appl. Sci. Manuf. 2007, 38, 2307–2320. [CrossRef]
11. Qin, L.; Zhang, Z.; Feng, Z.; Li, X.; Wang, Y.; Wang, Y.; Miao, H.; He, L.; Gong, X. Full-Field Analysis of Notch Effects of 3D
Carbon/Carbon Composites. J. Mater. Sci. 2013, 48, 3454–3460. [CrossRef]
12. Serra, J.; Bouvet, C.; Karinja Haridas, P.; Ratsifandrihana, L. Numerical Simulations of Combined Size Effects Acting on an
Open-Hole Laminated Composite Plate under Tension. J. Compos. Mater. 2022, 57, 213–233. [CrossRef]
13. Hallett, S.R.; Green, B.G.; Jiang, W.G.; Wisnom, M.R. An Experimental and Numerical Investigation into the Damage Mechanisms
in Notched Composites. Compos. Part A Appl. Sci. Manuf. 2009, 40, 613–624. [CrossRef]
14. Camanho, P.P.; Maimí, P.; Dávila, C.G. Prediction of Size Effects in Notched Laminates Using Continuum Damage Mechanics.
Compos. Sci. Technol. 2007, 67, 2715–2727. [CrossRef]
15. Camanho, P.P.; Erçin, G.H.; Catalanotti, G.; Mahdi, S.; Linde, P. A Finite Fracture Mechanics Model for the Prediction of the
Open-Hole Strength of Composite Laminates. Compos. Part A Appl. Sci. Manuf. 2012, 43, 1219–1225. [CrossRef]
Appl. Sci. 2024, 14, 3467 11 of 11

16. Chen, B.Y.; Tay, T.E.; Baiz, P.M.; Pinho, S.T. Numerical Analysis of Size Effects on Open-Hole Tensile Composite Laminates.
Compos. Part A Appl. Sci. Manuf. 2013, 47, 52–62. [CrossRef]
17. Serra, J.; Bouvet, C.; Castanié, B.; Petiot, C. Scaling Effect in Notched Composites: The Discrete Ply Model Approach. Compos.
Struct. 2016, 148, 127–143. [CrossRef]
18. Serra, J.; Bouvet, C.; Castanié, B.; Petiot, C. Experimental and Numerical Analysis of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer Notched
Coupons under Tensile Loading. Compos. Struct. 2017, 181, 145–157. [CrossRef]
19. Zheng, K.; Hu, H.; Cao, D.; Zhong, Y.; Li, S. Experimental and Numerical Studies on the Tensile Behaviors of Thin-Ply and
Thick-Ply Open-Hole Laminates. Thin-Walled Struct. 2023, 186, 110649. [CrossRef]
20. Yu, J.; Pan, Z.; Cai, Q.; Zhang, F.; Wu, Z. Open Hole Tensile Behavior of Plain Woven Carbon/Glass Hybrid Composites. Int. J.
Mech. Sci. 2023, 246, 108142. [CrossRef]
21. Ma, Z.; Chen, J.; Yang, Q.; Li, Z.; Su, X. Progressive Fracture Analysis of the Open-Hole Composite Laminates: Experiment and
Simulation. Compos. Struct. 2021, 262, 113628. [CrossRef]
22. Wysmulski, P. Failure Mechanism of Tensile CFRP Composite Plates with Variable Hole Diameter. Materials 2023, 16, 4714.
[CrossRef]
23. Erçin, G.H.; Camanho, P.P.; Xavier, J.; Catalanotti, G.; Mahdi, S.; Linde, P. Size Effects on the Tensile and Compressive Failure of
Notched Composite Laminates. Compos. Struct. 2013, 96, 736–744. [CrossRef]
24. Nguyen-Hoang, M.; Becker, W. Open Holes in Composite Laminates with Finite Dimensions: Structural Assessment by Analytical
Methods. Arch. Appl. Mech. 2022, 92, 1101–1125. [CrossRef]
25. Ferrarese, A.; Boursier Niutta, C.; Ciampaglia, A.; Ciardiello, R.; Paolino, D.S.; Belingardi, G. Experimental and Numerical
Investigation of the Mesoscale Size Effect in Notched Woven Composites. Appl. Sci. 2023, 13, 4300. [CrossRef]
26. ASTM D5766/D5766M-11(2018); Standard Test Method for Open-Hole Tensile Strength of Polymer Matrix Composite Laminates.
Annual Book of ASTM Standards; American Society for Testing and Materials: West Conshohocken, PA, USA, 2011. [CrossRef]
27. ASTM D3039/D3039M-17; Standard Test Method for Tensile Properties of Polymer Matrix Composite Materials. Annual Book of
ASTM Standards; American Society for Testing and Materials: West Conshohocken, PA, USA, 2011. [CrossRef]
28. Schreier, H.; Orteu, J.J.; Sutton, M.A. Practical Considerations for Accurate Measurements with DIC. In Image Correlation for
Shape, Motion and Deformation Measurements: Basic Concepts, Theory and Applications; Springer: New York, NY, USA, 2009;
ISBN 978-0-387-78746-6.
29. Invernizzi, S.; Paolino, D.; Montagnoli, F.; Tridello, A.; Carpinteri, A. Comparison between Fractal and Statistical Approaches to
Model Size Effects in VHCF. Metals 2022, 12, 1499. [CrossRef]
30. Nelder, J.A.; Mead, R.A. Simplex Method for Function Minimization. Comput. J. 1965, 7, 308–313. [CrossRef]

Disclaimer/Publisher’s Note: The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual
author(s) and contributor(s) and not of MDPI and/or the editor(s). MDPI and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to
people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content.