THE THEORY OF PROBABILITY
AND MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS
Events and their probabilities
Dr. Vuong Thi Thao Binh
Vuongthithaobinh.cs2@[Link]
0983466899
Learning Objectives
In this chapter, you learn:
◼ Basic probability concepts and definitions
◼ Basic Rules for Finding Probabilities
◼ Conditional probability
◼ To use Bayes’ Theorem to revise probabilities
◼ Various counting rules
Some Additional Counting Rules
Multiplicative Rule: n = n1n2…nk
Draw one element from A B C
each of k sets, sized n1, n2, n3, … nk
n!
A =
k
(n − k )!
n
k-permutations of n, partial permutation
Draw k elements, arranged in a distinct order, from a set of n elements
Permutations P(n) = n!
Combination Rule
n! n(n − 1)...(n − k + 1)
C =
k
=
k! (n − k )!
n
k!
Random Experiment
◼ A random experiment is a process leading to
two or more possible outcomes, without
knowing exactly which outcome will occur.
◼ In each of the random experiments listed, we
can specify the possible outcomes, defined as
basic outcomes.
Sample Space
◼ Sample Space
The possible outcomes from a random experiment
are called the basic outcomes, and the set of all
basic outcomes is called the sample space. We
use the symbol S to denote the sample space.
We must define the basic outcomes in such a way that no two
outcomes can occur simultaneously. In addition, the random
experiment must necessarily lead to the occurrence of one of the basic
outcomes.
Random Experiment
◼ A coin is tossed and the outcome is either a
head or a tail.
◼ S = {head, tail}
Chap 4-9
Random Experiment
◼ Tossing a balanced die
◼ S = {1; 2; 3; 4; 5; 6} = All 6 faces of a die
Basic Business Statistics, 10e © 2006 Prentice-Hall, Inc. Chap 4-10
Random Experiment
◼ An experiment consists of drawing one card
from a standard 52-card deck
4 suits: Hearts (♥), Diamonds (♦),
Clubs (♣), Spades (♠)
13 ranks in each suit:
A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K
◼ S={A♥, 2♥, ..., K♥, A♦, 2♦, ..., K♦, A♣, 2♣, ..., K♣
, A♠, 2♠, ..., K♠} = All 52 cards of a bridge deck
Chap 4-11
Events
◼ An event is a specific collection of basic
outcomes
An Ace
A four
A Head
Mutually Exclusive Events
◼ Mutually exclusive events
◼ Events that cannot occur together
example:
A = queen of diamonds; B = queen of clubs
◼ Events A and B are mutually exclusive
Collectively Exhaustive Events
◼ Collectively exhaustive events
◼ One of the events must occur
◼ The set of events covers the entire sample space
example:
A = aces; B = black cards;
C = diamonds; D = hearts
◼ Events A, B, C and D are collectively exhaustive
(but not mutually exclusive – an ace may also be
a heart)
◼ Events B, C and D are collectively exhaustive and
also mutually exclusive
Unions and Intersections
Compound Events
Made of two or
more other events
Union Intersection
A B or A+B A B or A.B
Either A or B, Both A and B
or both, occur occur
Unions and Intersections
Unions and Intersections
AB AC
ABC
B BC C
Complementary Events
◼ The complement of any event A is the event
that A does not occur, AC or A
A: {Toss an even number}
AC: {Toss an odd number}
B: {Toss a number ≤ 3}
BC: {Toss a number ≥ 4}
A B = {1,2,3,4,6}
[A B]C = {5}
(Neither A nor B occur)
Complementary Events
( A + B ) = A .B
C C C
( A.B) = A + B
C C C
