Global EV

Outlook 2025
Expanding sales in diverse markets
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY
AGENCY
The IEA examines the full IEA Member IEA Association
spectrum countries: countries:
of energy issues
including oil, gas and Australia Argentina
coal supply and Brazil
Austria
demand, renewable
Belgium China
energy technologies,
electricity markets, Canada Egypt
energy efficiency, Czech Republic India
access to energy, Denmark Indonesia
demand side Estonia Kenya
management and much Finland Morocco
more. Through its work, France Senegal
the IEA advocates Germany Singapore
policies that will enhance Greece South Africa
the reliability, Hungary Thailand
affordability and Ireland Ukraine
sustainability of energy
Italy
in its
32 Member countries, Japan
13 Association countries Korea
and beyond. Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
This publication and any map New Zealand
included herein are without Norway
prejudice to the status of or Poland
sovereignty over any territory,
to the delimitation of Portugal
international frontiers and Slovak Republic
boundaries and to the name Spain
of any territory, city or area.
Sweden
Switzerland
Republic of Türkiye
United Kingdom
United States

The European
Commission also
participates in the
work of the IEA

Source: IEA.
International Energy Agency
Website: [Link]
Global EV Outlook 2025 Abstract

Abstract

The Global EV Outlook is an annual publication that reports on recent

developments in electric mobility around the world. It is developed with the support
of members of the Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI).

The report draws on the latest data to assess trends in electric vehicle deployment,
demand for their batteries and charging infrastructure. It considers recent policy
developments and industry strategies shaping the outlook for electric vehicles in
different markets. This edition features analysis of electric vehicle affordability,
manufacturing and trade of electric cars and their batteries, and the total cost of
ownership of electric heavy-duty trucks across various markets, and makes
projections to 2030.

The report is complemented by updated versions of two online tools: the Global
EV Data Explorer and the Global EV Policy Explorer, which allow users to further
explore EV statistics and projections, and policy measures worldwide.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Acknowledgements

Acknowledgements, contributors
and credits

The Global EV Outlook 2025 was prepared by the Energy Technology Policy
(ETP) Division of the Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks
(STO) of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The project was designed and
directed by Timur Gül, Chief Energy Technology Officer. Araceli Fernandez Pales,
Head of the Technology Innovation Unit, provided strategic guidance throughout
the development of the project. Elizabeth Connelly co-ordinated the analysis and
production of the report.

The principal IEA authors were (in alphabetical order): Oskaras Alšauskas,
Giovanni Andrean, Elizabeth Connelly, Mathilde Huismans, YuJin Jeong, Teo
Lombardo, Shane McDonagh, Vera O’Riordan, Leonardo Paoli, Apostolos
Petropoulos, Jules Sery and Ottavia Valentini. Yoshihisa Tsukamoto, Qi Wang
and Biqing Yang contributed to the research on EV supportive policies and OEM
electrification plans. Ivo Walinga also provided support on Chinese EV policies.
Afonso Barroco and Gaia Poddighe supported research on EV statistics and
prices. Hannes Gauch and Maria de Oliveira Laurin provided targeted support to
the project.

Valuable insights and feedback were provided by senior management and other
colleagues from across IEA, including Laura Cozzi, Keisuke Sadamori, Tim Gould,
Paolo Frankl, Dennis Hesseling, Brian Motherway, Hugh Hopewell, Thomas
Spencer, Eren Cam and Shobhan Dhir. Per-Anders Widell, Charlotte Bracke and
Bérengère Merlo provided essential support throughout the process. Lizzie Sayer
edited the manuscript.

Special thanks go to Ryan Hanna, Jeffrey Myers and David Victor from the
University of California San Diego for their collaboration on influencing human
behaviour around charging.

Thanks go to the IEA’s Communications and Digital Office, particularly to Jethro

Mullen, Lee Bailey, Isabella Batten, Poeli Bojorquez, Curtis Brainard, Gaelle
Bruneau, Jon Custer, Astrid Dumond, Merve Erdil, Grace Gordon, Julia Horowitz,
Oliver Joy, Isabelle Nonain-Semelin, Andrea Pronzati, Clara Vallois, Lucile Wall,
Wonjik Yang.

The work could not have been achieved without the financial support provided by
the EVI member governments and the funds received through the Global E-
Mobility Programme funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF).
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Acknowledgements

The report benefitted from the high-calibre data and support provided by the
following colleagues: Mozah Alnuaimi (Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure,
United Arab Emirates); Daniel Barber (Energy Efficiency and Conservation
Authority, New Zealand); Klaas Burgdorf (Swedish Energy Agency); Albert Dessi
(Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Australia);
Isabel Del Olmo Flórez (Institute for Diversification and Saving of Energy, Spain);
Johannes Hasibar (AustriaTech); Jialin Li (China Society of Automotive
Engineers); Pieter Looijestijn (Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management,
Netherlands); Letícia Lorentz (Energy Research Company, Brazil); Toke Rueskov
Madsen (Danish Energy Agency); Gereon Meyer (VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik
GmbH, Germany); Nabil Mneimne (Lebanon office, United Nations Development
Programme); Drini Nushi (Urban Research Institute, Albania); Joyce Caitlyn
Ocansey (Energy Commission, Ghana); Hiten Parmar (The Electric Mission,
South Africa); Nissa Paul-Alexander (Department of Sustainable Development,
Saint Lucia); Xiaorong Qiao (Transport Canada); Abdelilah Rochd (Green Energy
Park IRESEN, Morocco); Tota Santhosh (VTT, Finland); Daniel Schaller (Swiss
Federal Office of Energy); Daniel Thorsell (Norwegian Public Roads
Administration); Pamela Castillo Toro (Ministry of Energy, Chile); Julio Vassallo
(Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development, Argentina); Nahum
Yehoshua (Ministry of Energy, Israel), and Arisa Yonezawa (Ministry of Economy,
Trade and Industry, Japan).

The following peer reviewers provided essential feedback to improve the quality
of the report: Nelson Acevedo (Ministry of Environment and Sustainable
Development, Colombia); Appurva Appan and Juan Camilo Ramírez Arjona
(Ricardo); Aminath Athifa (Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and
Technology, Maldives); Edgar Barassa (Independent); Harmeet Bawa (Hitachi
Energy); Thomas Becker (BMW); Annika Berlin (UNEP); Tomoko Blech
(CHAdeMO); Marie Rajon Bernard and Georg Bieker (International Council on
Clean Transportation); Bryan Cancán Bardales (Ministry of Environment, Peru);
Victor Bonilla (EBRD); Angelique Brunon (TotalEnergies); Krzysztof Burda (Polish
Chamber of E-Mobility Development Association); Sebastian Castellano (World
Resources Institute); Luca Castiglione (Swiss Federal Office of Energy); Pierpaolo
Cazzola (University of California, Davis), Tom Courtright (Africa E-Mobility
Alliance); Máté Csukás (FIER Sustainable Mobility), Francois Cuenot (UNECE);
Laurent Demilie (Ministry of Transport, Belgium); Stephen Dutnall (International
Electrotechnical Commission); Gabriela Ehrlich (Global E-Mobility Association
Network); Heloísa Esteves (Energy Research Office, Brazil), Bert Fabian (Asian
Development Bank); Yoann Gimbert (Transport & Environment); Katherine Fraga
(International Electrotechnical Commission); Hiroyuki Fukui (Toyota); Lewis
Fulton (University of California, Davis), Yariv Gabay (Ministry of Finance, Israel);
Sebastian Galarza (Center for Sustainable Mobility, Chile); Camille Gautier
(Ministry of Ecological Transition, France); Dallas Noelia Gonzales Malca (Ministry
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Acknowledgements

of Environment, Peru); Josh Miller (International Council on Clean Transportation);

Nikolas Hill (Ricardo); Aaron Hoskin (Transport Canada); Anders Hove (Oxford
Institute for Energy Studies); Antonio Iliceto (Terna Rete Italia); Viktor Irle (EV
Volumes); Patrick Jochem (German Aerospace Center); Andreas Kammel
(Traton), Tarek Keskes (World Bank); Christoph Kohnen (Volkswagen); Alexander
Koerner (UNEP); Andreas Kopf (International Transport Forum); Bahtiyar Kurt
(UNDP); Yossapong Laoonual (King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi
(KMUTT); Francisco Laveron (Iberdrola); Jialin Li (China Society of Automotive
Engineers); Pieter Looijestijn (Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management,
Netherlands); Neil King (EV Volumes); Juriën Koster (Eco-Movement), Yanchao
Li (World Bank); Owen MacDonnell (CALSTART); Toke Madsen (Danish Energy
Agency); Vittorio Manente and Madeleine Mitschler (Aramco Europe) Nabil
Mneimne (United Nations Development Programme); Gian Montoya (Empresas
Públicas de Medellín); Nakanishi Nobuto (Panasonic); Marcin Nowak (Polish
Chamber of E-Mobility); Mario Ortiz (Independent); Inga Petersen (Global Battery
Alliance); María del Carmen Quevedo Caiña (Ministry of Environment, Peru);
Aditya Ramji (University of California, Davis); Abdelilah Rochd (Green Energy
Park IRESEN, Morocco); Emanuela Sartori (Enel X); Wülf-Peter Schmidt
(Independent); Arijit Sen (International Council on Clean Transportation); Jacopo
Tattini (Directorate General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and
SMEs, European Commission); Joseph Teja (CALSTART); Jacob Teter
(Independent); Tali Trigg (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development);
Lyle Trytten (Independent); Bianka Uhrinova (Equinor); Ulderico Ulissi (CATL);
David Victor (University of California San Diego); Ilka von Dalwigk (Recharge);
Nodir Xudayberdiyev (Ministry of Transport, Uzbekistan); Arisa Yonezawa
(Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan) and Katherine Miranda Zapata
(Ministry of Environment, Peru).

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Table of contents

Table of contents

Executive summary ................................................................................................................ 10

1. Trends in electric car markets .......................................................................................... 15
Electric car sales ...................................................................................................................... 15
Government spending on electric cars .................................................................................... 27
2. Trends in the electric car industry ................................................................................... 31
Manufacturing and trade .......................................................................................................... 31
Model availability ...................................................................................................................... 39
Electric vehicle range ............................................................................................................... 44
Electric car affordability ............................................................................................................ 47
3. Trends in other light-duty electric vehicles..................................................................... 57
Electric two- and three-wheelers .............................................................................................. 57
Electric light commercial vehicles ............................................................................................ 61
4. Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles ............................................................................ 65
Electric bus and truck sales ..................................................................................................... 65
Electric heavy-duty models ...................................................................................................... 70
Truck total cost of ownership ................................................................................................... 72
5. Outlook for electric mobility ............................................................................................. 82
Overview .................................................................................................................................. 82
Vehicle outlook by mode .......................................................................................................... 83
Vehicle outlook by region ......................................................................................................... 87
Automakers’ electrification announcements ............................................................................ 96
6. Electric vehicle charging ................................................................................................... 99
Charging electric light-duty vehicles ........................................................................................ 99
Light-duty vehicle charging outlook ........................................................................................ 112
Charging electric heavy-duty vehicles ................................................................................... 116
Heavy-duty vehicle charging outlook ..................................................................................... 119
Smart charging and vehicle-grid integration .......................................................................... 120
Innovative charging solutions ................................................................................................. 127
7. Electric vehicle batteries ................................................................................................. 134
Trends in battery demand ...................................................................................................... 134
Outlook for battery demand.................................................................................................... 135
Battery industry trends ........................................................................................................... 136
Battery production and trade .................................................................................................. 146
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Table of contents

8. Outlook for energy demand ............................................................................................ 152

Electricity demand .................................................................................................................. 152
Oil displacement ..................................................................................................................... 153
Annex ..................................................................................................................................... 157
Annex A: Total cost of ownership........................................................................................... 157
Annex B: United States regional groupings ........................................................................... 166
Annex C: Regional and country groupings ............................................................................ 166
Annex D: Glossary ................................................................................................................. 168

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric Vehicles Initiative

Electric Vehicles Initiative

The Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) is a multi-governmental policy forum

established in 2010 under the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM). Recognising the
opportunities offered by EVs, the EVI is dedicated to accelerating the adoption of
EVs worldwide. To do so, it strives to better understand the policy challenges
related to electric mobility, to help governments address them and to serve as a
platform for knowledge-sharing among government policy makers. The EVI also
facilitates exchanges between government policy makers and a variety of other
partners on topics important for the transition to electric mobility, such as charging
infrastructure and grid integration as well as EV battery supply chains.

The International Energy Agency serves as the co-ordinator of the initiative.

Governments that have been active in the EVI in the 2024-25 period include
Canada, Chile, People’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”), Finland, France,
Germany, India, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Sweden, United Kingdom and United States.

The Global EV Outlook annual series is the flagship publication of the EVI. It is
dedicated to tracking and monitoring the progress of electric mobility worldwide
and to informing policy makers on how to best accelerate electrification of the road
transport sector.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Executive summary

Executive summary

Electric car sales continue to break records globally,

particularly in China and other emerging economies
Electric car sales exceeded 17 million globally in 2024, reaching a sales
share of more than 20%. Just the additional 3.5 million electric cars sold in 2024
compared with the previous year is more than the total number of electric cars
sold worldwide in 2020. China maintained its lead, with electric cars accounting
for almost half of all car sales in 2024; the over 11 million electric cars sold in
China last year were more than global sales just 2 years earlier. As a result of
continued strong growth, 1 in 10 cars on Chinese roads is now electric. Europe
saw sales stagnate in 2024 as subsidy schemes and other supportive policies
waned, but the sales share of electric cars remained around 20% as stronger sales
in some countries compensated for lower sales in others. In the United States,
electric car sales grew by about 10% year-on-year, reaching more than 1 in 10
cars sold.

Emerging markets in Asia and Latin America are becoming new centres of
growth, with electric car sales jumping by over 60% in 2024 to almost
600 000 – about the size of the European market 5 years earlier. In Southeast
Asia, electric car sales grew by nearly 50% to represent 9% of all car sales in the
region, with notably higher sales shares in Thailand and Viet Nam. In Brazil, the
largest car market in Latin America, electric car sales more than doubled to
125 000 in 2024, reaching a sales share of over 6%. Sales in Africa also more
than doubled, too, mostly thanks to growing sales in Egypt and Morocco, though
electric cars still represent less than 1% of total car sales across the continent.
Policy support and relatively affordable electric car imports from China played a
central role in increasing sales in some emerging electric vehicle (EV) markets,
accounting for 85% of electric car sales in both Brazil and Thailand, for example.
Across all emerging economies outside of China, Chinese imports made up 75%
of the increase in electric car sales in 2024.

Expected growth in electric car sales is led by China and

Europe, alongside a surge in emerging economies
Electric car sales in 2025 are expected to exceed 20 million worldwide to
represent more than one-quarter of cars sold worldwide. Sales were up 35%
year-on-year in the first three months of 2025, with record first-quarter sales in all
major markets. In China, the continuation of incentives for replacing older vehicles
and falling electric car prices mean electric cars are projected to reach around
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Executive summary

60% of total car sales in the country in 2025. Emissions standards in the
European Union and the United Kingdom will require higher shares of zero-
emission car sales in 2025. Building on more than 20% year-on-year sales growth
observed in the first quarter, these policy pushes are expected to drive up electric
car sales in Europe in 2025 to reach a sales share of 25%, despite flexibility given
to automakers for meeting the 2025 EU emissions reduction target. While the 2025
outlook for electric car sales in the United States is uncertain based on today’s
policy direction, sales are currently expected to maintain the 10% growth observed
in the first quarter; as consumers take advantage of existing tax credits in view of
their potential repeal, electric car sales are projected to reach 11% of total car
sales over the full year. In emerging economies other than China, sales are
expected to continue growing strongly, increasing by 50% to reach 1 million in
2025.

Despite uncertainties in the outlook, the share of electric cars in overall car
sales is set to exceed 40% in 2030 under today’s policy settings. China is
poised to continue leading in electric car sales to 2030, achieving a sales share of
around 80% on the back of significant market momentum and competitively-priced
EVs. In Europe, carbon dioxide (CO2) targets support the achievement of a sales
share of close to 60% by 2030, slightly below last year’s projection. The sales
share in the United States grows much more modestly than in our Outlook last
year, reaching around 20% by 2030 based on today’s policy direction – less than
half the share projected for 2030 last year. In Southeast Asia, meanwhile, electric
car sales are boosted by strong policy support and available domestic
manufacturing capacity: by 2030, one in four cars sold in the region is poised to
be electric. Two/three-wheelers – an important mode of road transport in the
region – electrify faster: by 2030, almost 1 in 3 such vehicles sold are electric.
Across all vehicle modes, the deployment of EVs replaces the use of more than 5
million barrels of oil per day globally in 2030, an important energy security
consideration. Half of these savings are the result of EV adoption in China.

Uncertainty about the evolution of trade and industrial policy, downside

risks to the economic outlook, and lower oil prices could affect EV uptake –
but also car markets overall. Higher tariffs might increase the price of cars,
including electric cars, and their components; lower GDP growth could dampen
car sales; and lower oil prices affect the fuel cost savings from the use of electric
cars. The way these factors will play out in practice is uncertain, but on aggregate
they look to pose risks for overall car sales volumes more than for the share of
EVs. In China, continued political support and competitive EV prices suggest that
EV sales can withstand such headwinds. In Europe, where price differentials with
conventional cars are larger, the combination of longer-term policy ambition and
examples of policy responses from the pandemic suggest that sustaining EV sales
is possible. Low oil prices can reduce fuel savings offered by battery electric cars,
but even at global benchmark oil prices of USD 40 per barrel, there would be
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Executive summary

significant fuel cost savings in all major EV markets when charging at home. In
China, public fast charging costs around twice as much as home charging, but it
would still offer savings for EV owners compared with driving a conventional car.

Global trade of electric cars is growing as manufacturers

eye new markets
China continues to be the world’s EV manufacturing hub and is responsible
for more than 70% of global production. Car manufacturers headquarted in
China predominantly cater to the domestic market, accounting for around 80% of
domestic sales in 2024 and almost all of the 25% growth in global EV production.
In the European Union, production stalled at 2.4 million electric cars in 2024. North
America saw contrasting trends: US production declined whereas Mexico’s output
doubled, supported by comparatively low manufacturing costs. Roughly 70% of
Mexico’s output was from US-headquartered manufacturers. Production also
increased by 15% in Asia Pacific countries other than China, reaching about
1 million electric cars, mostly from incumbent carmakers from Japan and Korea.

Global trade of electric cars increased 20% in 2024; imports now represent
almost one-fifth of global electric car sales. At 40% (nearly 1.25 million electric
cars), China accounted for the largest share of global exports in 2024. The
European Union also remained a net exporter of electric cars: exports reached
over 800 000, mostly destined for other European countries (such as the United
Kingdom) and North America. EU imports were below 700 000, of which 60%
came from China. The United States remained a net importer of electric cars;
imports increased by nearly 40% in 2024, while exports fell by nearly 15%.

Chinese EV export markets are diversifying as Chinese automakers make

headway in Brazil, Mexico and Southeast Asia. Several potential markets for
Chinese EV exports have recently adopted or are considering the use of tariffs.
This has prompted Chinese manufacturers to either frontload their exports before
such tariffs come into force (as in Brazil) or to seek new markets for their available
output. Today, overseas manufacturing capacity from Chinese manufacturers
supplies about 5% of electric car sales in emerging markets and is set to grow
further.

Competition and declining battery prices are improving

affordability, though progress is uneven
As a global average, the price of battery electric cars fell in 2024, but the
purchase price gap with conventional cars persisted in many markets. The
average battery electric car price in Germany, for example, remained 20% higher
than that of its conventional counterpart. In the United States, battery electric cars
remained 30% more expensive, dampening future sales growth expectations. In
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Executive summary

contrast, two-thirds of all electric cars sold in China in 2024 were priced lower than
their conventional equivalents, without considering purchase incentives for EVs.
This helped boost sales even as government incentives decreased.

Chinese electric car models are typically cheaper than the average EV in
emerging markets, bolstering the competitive position of the Chinese
industry. In Thailand, the average price of a battery electric car has now reached
parity with an average conventional car, and the Chinese electric cars available
are, on average, even cheaper. In Brazil, the price gap between battery electric
cars and conventional cars shrank to 25% in 2024 from over 100% in 2023 as
Chinese electric car imports grew to 85% of the country’s EV sales. Similarly, the
average price premium of battery electric cars in Mexico fell to 50% in 2024 from
more than 100% in 2023 as Chinese imports reached two-thirds of sales.

Low critical mineral prices and increasing competition between battery

manufacturers drove down battery pack prices in all markets in 2024, albeit
with significant variations. In China, prices fell by about 30%, compared with
10-15% in Europe and the United States. The faster pace of cost reductions in
China – enabled by strong competition, increasing manufacturing efficiency and
supply chain integration, and access to a skilled workforce – is increasing the
competitive advantage of Chinese battery manufacturers.

Improving charging coverage, capacity and integration is

key to growing adoption of electric vehicles
Public charging stations have doubled in the past 2 years to keep up with
growing EV sales. China and the European Union have maintained a steady
pace of charger deployment compared with the number of EVs on the road.
However, in both the United States and United Kingdom, which have higher rates
of access to home chargers than China, public charger build-out has not kept pace
with EV deployment, and the number of electric light-duty vehicles per public
charging point increased in 2024.

Charging capacity is an important measure of the adequacy of public

charging networks. The number of ultra-fast chargers, with power ratings of
150 kilowatts (kW) and above, grew by about 50% in 2024 and now account for
nearly 10% of all public fast chargers. Public slow chargers in urban areas are a
solution for EV owners without access to home charging, but fast chargers along
highways help enable long-distance trips. In Europe, over three-quarters of all
highways have a fast-charging station at least every 50 kilometres, compared with
less than half of US highways. Globally, public charging capacity for light-duty EVs
would need to grow by almost ninefold to 2030 to support EV sales implied by
stated policies. Even so, EVs are set to account for only 2.5% of total global
electricity demand in 2030.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Executive summary

Government efforts to promote interoperability, standardisation, smart

charging and vehicle-to-grid integration can ease the transition to EVs for
drivers and grid operators. Technologies such as smart chargers and vehicle-
to-grid-capable EV models are becoming more available, but new market
structures and legal frameworks will be needed for vehicles to maximise the
potential benefits for the grid. China and the United Kingdom stand out for policy
implementation and demonstration projects in this area. Battery technology
innovations in recent years are also enabling safe high-power charging that could
be as quick as refuelling a conventional car, but fully realising these advances
hinges on deploying adequate infrastructure.

The value proposition for electric trucks is improving,

even for long-haul operations
Electric truck sales grew by nearly 80% globally in 2024 to reach close to 2%
of total truck sales. Spurred by a new scrappage scheme for conventional trucks,
China’s electric truck sales doubled to 75 000 vehicles, representing over 80% of
global sales in 2024. In Europe and the United States, electric truck sales in 2024
remained similar to 2023 levels. The number of battery electric truck models
available has grown from less than 70 in 2020 to more than 400, increasing the
number of applications that can be met by electric trucks.

The total cost of ownership of a battery electric heavy-duty truck is already

lower than for a diesel equivalent in China in certain cases. The purchase
price of battery electric heavy-duty trucks remains two to three times higher than
equivalent diesel trucks in major markets, which can discourage fleet operators,
who often operate under tight margins. However, greater efficiency and lower
energy costs – even including the cost of a high-power charger – make battery
electric trucks more attractive the more they are used. By 2030, battery electric
trucks in Europe and the United States are expected to reach parity on the total
cost of ownership with diesel trucks for long-haul operations, as they already have
in China, and are set to remain more cost-effective than hydrogen fuel cell trucks.
However, the specific application and use profile of trucks are key factors for
determining which powertrain technology is most suitable, meaning case-by-case
analysis may be needed to evaluate the costs of various alternatives.

Mandated rest periods for truck drivers can play an important role in
reducing the opportunity cost of charging en route. For long-haul trucking, the
wait time for recharging an electric truck can pose difficulties for logistics
operators. However, the 45-minute rest period mandated in the European Union
can accommodate the addition of around 150 km of driving range for a heavy-duty
truck using a 350 kW charger, and up to about 400 km if a megawatt charger is
used. While the United States and China also have mandated rest periods, the
design of the EU policy is currently most conducive to supporting EV adoption.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in electric car markets

1. Trends in electric car markets

Electric car sales

Global electric car sales exceeded 17 million in 2024

More than 20% of new cars sold worldwide were electric

Electric car sales topped 17 million worldwide in 2024, rising by more than 25%. 1
Just the additional 3.5 million cars sold in 2024 compared to 2023 outnumber total
electric car sales in the whole of 2020. China maintained its lead among major
markets, with electric car sales exceeding 11 million – more than were sold
worldwide just 2 years earlier. Global sales were slightly tempered by stagnating
growth in Europe, as subsidies were phased out or reduced in several major
markets, and as the EU CO2 targets for cars remained the same between 2023
and 2024. Electric car sales continued to increase in the United States although
growth was about one-quarter that of the previous year. Significantly, outside of
these three major markets, there was a record increase in sales of nearly 40% to
reach 1.3 million, closing in on the United States’ sales of 1.6 million electric cars.

Global electric car sales, 2014-2024

20
Rest of World PHEV
Million

18
16 Rest of World BEV

14 United States PHEV

12
United States BEV
10
8 Europe PHEV
6 Europe BEV
4
China PHEV
2
0 China BEV
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: BEV = battery electric vehicle; PHEV = plug-in hybrid vehicle. Includes new passenger cars only.
Sources: IEA analysis based on country submissions and data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association
(ACEA), European Alternative Fuels Observatory (EAFO), EV Volumes and Marklines.

1
In this report “sales” represents an estimate of the number of new vehicles hitting the roads. Where possible, data on new
vehicle registrations is used. In some cases, only data on retail sales (such as sales from a dealership) are available. New
car sales or registrations exclude used cars. Unless otherwise specified, the term electric vehicle is used to refer to both
battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles but does not include fuel cell electric vehicles. For a brief description of
the trends related to fuel cell electric vehicles, see the box at the end of Section 4.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in electric car markets

The rapid growth in electric car sales over the past 5 years has had a significant
impact on the global car fleet: At the end of 2024, the electric car fleet had reached
almost 58 million, about 4% of the total passenger car fleet and more than triple
the total electric car fleet in 2021. Notably, the global stock of electric cars
displaced over 1 million barrels per day of oil consumption in 2024. Of course, the
stock of electric cars is not spread evenly across the world – in China, for example,
around one in ten cars on the road is now electric, whereas in Europe the ratio is
closer to one in twenty.

Almost half of China’s car sales were electric in 2024,

representing almost two-thirds of electric cars sold globally
Electric car sales in China increased by almost 40% year-on-year in 2024, further
driving up China’s share of global electric car sales. In 2021, China accounted for
half of global electric car sales; this share grew to almost two-thirds in 2024. On a
monthly basis, sales of electric cars have overtaken conventional car sales in the
country since July 2024, bringing the share of electric car sales close to 50% for
the full year. In China, 2024 marks the fourth consecutive year in which the electric
car sales share grew by approximately 10 percentage points year-on-year.

The growth in China reflects in no small part the growing price competitiveness of
battery electric cars with conventional cars in the country. In addition, China’s
electric car market benefitted from the introduction of a trade-in scheme in April
2024. The scheme, which is part of a wider economic stimulus package, applies
to the purchase of conventional and electric cars alike, but with different levels of
financial support. It offers CNY 20 000 (Yuan renminbi) (USD 2 750) for
consumers that replace an older vehicle (conventional or electric) with a new
electric car, and CNY 15 000 (USD 2 050) for replacement with a new
conventional vehicle. In 2024, about 6.6 million consumers applied for the
incentive, 60% of whom bought an electric car. As such, more than one-third of
the over 11 million new electric car sales in the country benefitted from this
incentive.

In recent years, sales of plug-in hybrid electric cars have been growing faster than
sales of battery electric cars in China. The share of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
(PHEV) sales, excluding extended-range EVs (EREVs) 2, in China’s total electric
car sales has risen from about 15% in 2020 to nearly 30% in 2024. Meanwhile,
the share of EREVs has more than quadrupled since 2020, surpassing 10% in

2
If not otherwise specified, PHEVs includes EREVs. Extended-range EVs are a subset of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles that
have both an internal combustion engine (ICE) and a plug-in rechargeable battery. Throughout this report, EREVs refer to
plug-in series hybrid powertrain configurations where the ICE only operates without direct mechanical connection to the
wheels to recharge the battery through an electric generator. Other plug-in hybrid configurations (such as parallel and series-
parallel configurations) fall under the “standard” PHEV category. EREVs generally feature larger battery and longer electric
range than standard PHEVs.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 16
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in electric car markets

2024. The acceleration of PHEV sales in China led the share of electric car sales
that are battery electric to fall from 80% in 2020 to below 60% in 2024, though in
absolute terms battery electric car sales increased sevenfold over the same
period, demonstrating their continued appeal to new customers.

In Europe, electric car sales stagnated in 2024 as policy

support waned in major car markets
About one in five new cars sold on the European market was electric in 2024,
maintaining the sales share of the previous year. The electric sales share
increased in 2024 in 14 out of 27 EU member states, while it either stalled or
decreased in the rest, including in several larger markets, such as Germany and
France, largely as a result of subsidies being phased out or reduced. In Germany,
subsidies ceased at the end of 2023, while France has progressively reduced its
subsidy over the years. At the start of 2024, France limited the amount of
environmental bonus available to higher-income car buyers and reduced the
number of vehicles eligible for the subsidy.

Besides subsidies, the policy design of the European Union CO2 standards may
also have held back further growth of the electric car market in 2024. As new
targets come into effect every 5 years, car makers had no incentive to push sales
of electric cars further in 2024 (in anticipation of strengthened targets in 2025).
This is in contrast to markets such as the United Kingdom, where annually
increasing targets move original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) towards
electrification each year. In March 2025, the European Commission published its
Industrial Action Plan for the European automotive sector, in which it proposed to
amend the CO2 emission performance standards for cars and vans, granting them
additional flexibilities by averaging their performance over a 3-year period.

In the United Kingdom – the second-largest car market in Europe – electric car
sales reached a share of nearly 30%, up from 24% in 2023. The year 2024 was
the first under the Vehicle Emissions Trading Scheme, which required 22% of all
new registrations to be BEV or fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV). When accounting
for the scheme’s flexibilities, which allows OEMs to borrow credits from future
years, they were able to comply with a battery electric car sales share of close to
20%. Norway reached near-total electrification of sales, with 88% of car sales
being battery electric and just under 3% plug-in hybrid. As a result of the growing
stock of electric cars, Norway’s oil consumption for road in 2024 decreased by
12% compared to 2021. From April 2025, a tax increase on conventional internal
combustion engine (ICE) cars and PHEVs is expected to further increase the
battery electric share towards meeting the Norwegian government’s 2025 goal of
100% zero-emissions car sales. In Denmark, the electric sales share increased
by 10 percentage points to reach 56%, with nearly 100 000 electric cars sold.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 17
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in electric car markets

The market share of electric cars continued to expand in the

United States
In the United States, electric car sales increased to 1.6 million in 2024, with the
sales share growing to more than 10%. However, growth in electric car sales
slowed down significantly in 2024, increasing by just 10% compared to 40% in
2023. In spite of this, electric car sales did boost the overall car market, as sales
of conventional cars stagnated.

A total of 24 new electric car models were launched in 2024, increasing model
availability by 15% compared to 2023, providing consumers with more choices
and further increasing competition. While the Tesla Model Y and Model 3 have
been the two best-selling models in the United States since 2020, the 110 new
models that have entered the market since then have driven the market share of
Tesla down from 60% in 2020 to 38% in 2024. Furthermore, 2024 was the first
year in which Tesla saw a drop in sales in the United States, while other OEMs
saw sales increase by 20% on aggregate.

A modification to the US Clean Vehicle Tax Credit at the start of 2024 enabled
buyers to receive an instant discount (up to USD 7 500 for a new electric car and
USD 4 000 for a used electric car) at the point of sale, which may have served to
entice interested buyers. However, not all electric cars were eligible for the credit:
in 2024 about 20 electric models (not accounting for different trim levels) out of a
total 110 were eligible, which translated to over half of US electric car sales. The
real share that benefitted from the tax credit may be even higher. In 2023,
provisions were introduced on leased electric cars to reclassify them as
commercial vehicles, thereby making them eligible for the tax credit without having
to meet requirements on local manufacturing. As a result, by 2024, nearly half of
all EVs sold were leased, more than double the share seen 3 years earlier. In
addition to the federal tax credit, in 2024, 27 states offered additional incentives,
rebates and exemptions promoting electric car adoption. IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 18
 Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in electric car markets

Electric car registrations and sales share in selected countries and regions, 2018-2024
18 60%
Million

15 50%

12 40%

9 30%

6 20%

3 10%

0 0%
'18 '20 '22 '24 '18 '20 '22 '24 '18 '20 '22 '24 '18 '20 '22 '24
World China Europe United States

1.0 60%
Million

0.8 45%

0.5 30%

0.3 15%

0.0 0%
'18 '20 '22 '24 '18 '20 '22 '24 '18 '20 '22 '24 '18 '20 '22 '24
Germany France United Kingdom Netherlands

300 100%
Thousand

240 80%

180 60%

120 40%

60 20%

0 0%
'18 '20 '22 '24'18 '20 '22 '24'18 '20 '22 '24'18 '20 '22 '24'18 '20 '22 '24
Sweden Korea Norway Canada Japan

BEV PHEV (excluding EREVs) EREV Sales share (right)

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: BEV = battery electric vehicle; PHEV = plug-in hybrid vehicle, EREV = extended-range electric vehicle.
Sources: IEA analysis based on country submissions and data from ACEA, EAFO, EV Volumes and Marklines.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 19
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in electric car markets

Emerging markets saw a strong uptick in electric car

sales

Electric car sales shares doubled in a number of emerging

markets
In emerging and developing economies in Asia, Latin America and Africa, electric
car sales increased by over 60% year-on-year in 2024, and the sales share almost
doubled from 2.5% to 4%. This rapid growth has been strengthened by policy
incentives and the growing presence of relatively affordable electric cars from
Chinese OEMs.

Emerging and developing economies in Asia (excluding China) saw a large

increase in electric car sales, reaching almost 400 000 in 2024, up over 40% from
2023. However, in India, total electric car sales and their share of sales increased
only slightly, approaching 100 000 (or 2%) in 2024. Thailand remained the largest
EV market in Southeast Asia, despite a 10% drop in electric car sales. This decline
was outweighed by an even steeper 26% drop in conventional car sales, largely
due to stricter lending criteria, meaning the electric sales share rose to 13% in
2024, up from 11% the previous year. Within the region, Indonesia and Viet Nam
also stood out, respectively tripling and nearly doubling their sales numbers and
reaching sales shares comparable to countries such as Spain or Canada. In many
Southeast Asian countries, BEVs are the most popular electric car type, with over
90% of all electric car sales being fully electric.

In Latin America, sales volumes and penetration rates doubled in many countries,
with electric cars reaching a market share of 4% in 2024. Brazil towered over other
countries in the region with nearly 125 000 electric car sales, more than twice the
number of 2023 sales, and the electric sales share doubled to 6.5%. Costa Rica,
Uruguay and Colombia also achieved impressive sales shares of around 15%,
13% and 7.5%, respectively. These increases are in large part the result of
government incentives such as tax exemptions, reduced registration fees, a
relaxation of traffic restrictions for EVs, and relatively high fossil fuel prices.

In Africa, electric car sales more than doubled to reach nearly 11 000 in 2024.
Sales shares remained low, at under 1%, though there was growth in several
countries, such as Morocco and Egypt, where new electric car sales increased to
more than 2 000.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 20
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in electric car markets

Electric car registrations and sales shares in selected countries, 2020-2024

100 20%
Thousand

80 16%

60 12%

40 8%

20 4%

0 0%
'20 '22 '24 '20 '22 '24 '20 '22 '24 '20 '22 '24 '20 '22 '24
Thailand India Viet Nam Indonesia Malaysia
150 20%
Thousand

120 16%

90 12%

60 8%

30 4%

0 0%
'20 '22 '24 '20 '22 '24 '20 '22 '24 '20 '22 '24 '20 '22 '24
Brazil Mexico Colombia Costa Rica Uruguay
30 30% 2.0 2.0%
Thousand

25 25%
1.5 1.5%
20 20%

15 15% 1.0 1.0%

10 10%
0.5 0.5%
5 5%

0 0% 0.0 0.0%
'20 '22 '24 '20 '22 '24 '20 '22 '24 '20 '22 '24
United Arab Uzbekistan South Africa Morocco
Emirates

BEV PHEV Sales share (right)

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: BEV = battery electric vehicle; PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle.
Sources: IEA analysis based on country submissions and data from ACEA, EAFO, EV Volumes, Marklines, Asomove,
AleTech, Andemos, OICA, AFMA, Gaikindo and AIVAM, sales of other macro regions can be found in the Global EV Data
Explorer.

Emerging electric car brands are seeing local and even

international success
Recent years have seen the birth of several new electric car brands in emerging
markets, such as VinFast in Viet Nam, Togg in Türkiye, and Tito in Argentina,
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 21
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in electric car markets

helping to drive up sales. In Viet Nam, local brands underpinned the near doubling
of the electric sales share in 2024 to reach 17%. VinFast has also started to export
to 11 different countries, with the largest share of exports going to Southeast Asian
countries such as Indonesia (44%) and Malaysia (22%), but also to the
United States (22%). The company has announced plans to double domestic
production in Viet Nam, as well as expanding manufacturing into India and
Indonesia.

Türkiye continues to deploy the domestically produced Togg electric cars,

increasing its total production by 50% year-on-year. The increase in domestic
production and in imports resulted in the country reaching an electric sales share
of 10% in 2024. In July 2024, the Turkish government announced a USD 5 billion
package to boost its annual production to 1 million electric cars per year.

India’s electric car market is predominantly supplied by Indian OEM Tata. In

addition, at the end of 2023, Indian steelmaker JSW signed a joint venture with
SAIC Motor, a Chinese OEM, to work together on car production under the name
MG Motor. In 2024, the joint venture produced about half of its electric cars sold
in India domestically, while the other half were imported from China. At the end of
2024, JSW also announced the launch of its own EV brand, and is in talks with
partners such as BYD and Geely regarding collaboration on technology transfer.

Origin of electric cars sold in selected markets, 2024, and share of total imports from
China, 2023 and 2024
100%
Orgin of electric cars

80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Colombia

India

Viet Nam

Morocco
Uruguay

Thailand

Uzbekistan

Jordan
Brazil

Costa Rica

Malaysia
Mexico

Egypt

South Africa
Indonesia
Argentina

Türkiye

Latin America Asia Pacific Africa Other

Imports Local production Share of imports from China

Chinese imports (Chinese OEM) Domestic brand
Chinese imports (other OEMs) Chinese locally produced 2024 2023
Other imports Other local production
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Chinese OEMs include BAIC, Geely-Volvo, GWM, GAC, BYD, Chery Automobile, JAC, Neta Auto, Seres Group,
FAW, Changan, Dongfeng, Jiangling Motors, SAIC, Leap Motor, Xiaopeng, Aiways Automobile. The domestic brands are
Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra (India); Togg Inc. (Türkiye); VinFast (Viet Nam) and Tito (Argentina).
Sources: IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 22
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in electric car markets

Overseas expansion plans of Chinese producers, prompted by

changes to import tariffs, drove sales in emerging markets
Another notable trend from 2024 was the numerous manufacturing
announcements from Chinese OEMs in countries such as Brazil, Thailand,
Indonesia and Malaysia, where temporary exemptions from import tariffs for
electric cars are coming to an end. In 2024, electric car sales in Brazil more than
doubled, with over 85% of new electric cars coming from China. A key factor
behind this impressive growth was electric cars being exempt from import duties
of 35%, though this exemption started to be gradually removed in 2024 and is set
to end by the middle of 2026. By then, automakers BYD and GWM will have begun
producing models in Brazil, with a range tailored to the Brazilian market, such as
BYD’s Song Pro, which will be flex-fuel compatible.

In Thailand, Chinese imports play a key role in electrification, accounting for 85%
of electric car sales. However, as in Brazil, this share is expected to decline due
to changes introduced in the EV 3.5 program, under which import taxes on electric
cars will be reintroduced at the end of 2025 and existing subsidies of up to
THB 100 000 (Thai baht) (USD 2 800) per imported car will be gradually phased
out. To continue to qualify for the exemption and subsidy, OEMs must commit to
producing at least two battery electric vehicles (BEVs) domestically by the end of
2026 for every imported BEV sold in 2024 and 2025.

In Indonesia, electric car sales tripled in 2024 while the conventional market
contracted by 20%, leading to an electric sales share of over 7%. The government
has supported adoption by reducing the VAT rate on electric cars from 11% to 1%
since 2023. However, what has potentially had an even greater impact on reducing
the cost of electric cars for Indonesian buyers – and thus stimulating EV sales –
has been the government waiving import taxes for EVs from car makers that invest
in local electric car manufacturing from the start of 2024. Chinese car
manufactures such as BYD and GAC Aion profited from this reduction, as did
European OEM Stellantis. As a result, Chinese electric car imports increased 18-
fold to 34 000 by the end of 2024.

In Malaysia, electric car sales more than doubled in 2024 and the sales share
increased from less than 2% in 2023 to nearly 4% in 2024. Much of this success
is due to imported electric cars being exempt from import taxes and excise duties
until the end of 2025. Ahead of the tax exemption ending, Chinese car producer
Geely, together with Proton (a Malaysian automotive company), will start
domestically producing the [Link] 7 by the end of 2025, backed by an investment
from Geely. Malaysian OEM Perodua will also start producing its first electric car
at the end of 2025, with a price of RM 80 000 (Malaysia ringgit) (USD 18 000).
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 23
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in electric car markets

More affordable electric cars and local policies have reshaped

the EV landscape in more emerging markets
Policy measures such as tax incentives for electric cars contributed to the doubling
of electric car sales seen in Colombia and Costa Rica in 2024. Colombia also
proposed to increase import tariffs on all hybrid vehicles at the end of 2024, in a
push to shift more sales towards BEVs. More than 70% of all electric cars sold in
these two countries were imported from China, with Chinese imports to Colombia
more than tripling in 2024, while imports from other countries grew by just 30%. In
Uzbekistan, electric car sales shares doubled and the average price of an
imported electric car fell almost threefold between 2023 and 2024.

In Africa, local policies and changing trade regimes are reshaping the electric car
market. Developments such as the ban on imports of petrol and diesel cars
introduced in Ethiopia at the start of 2024 have resulted in a reported deployment
of 100 000 electric vehicles. 3 While model availability appears to be reasonable in
the country, there are reports that garages struggle to source components for
repairs, and that deployment of chargers outside of the capital has not kept pace
with electric car sales. In Morocco and Egypt, efforts by car manufacturers to
expand their production lines for batteries and/or electric cars in order to facilitate
exports to the European Union have also pushed up domestic deployment, with
the sales share reaching just under 2%. Nigeria is now looking into strengthening
its EV manufacturing capacity with support from Morocco, and in 2024, signed the
Zero Emission Vehicles Declaration to work towards all new sales of cars and
vans being zero emission by 2040.

First quarter sales hint at strong sales for 2025, despite

many uncertainties

Electric car sales increased 35% in the first quarter of 2025

compared to the same period in 2024
More than 4 million electric cars were sold in the first quarter of 2025 as sales
grew by 35% compared to the first quarter of 2024, which was higher than the
growth rate observed in the first quarters of the previous 2 years. Over 1 million
more electric cars were sold in the first three months of 2025 compared to the
same period in 2024 and about 60% of these were sold in China.

3
Data on electric car deployment in Ethiopia is difficult to obtain, and sources are not well aligned. The Ministry of Transport
of Ethiopia reports a stock of 100 000 electric vehicles but does not define how many of these are cars. In contrast, EV
Volumes reports about 1 300 electric car sales in the past 5 years.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 24
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in electric car markets

Quarterly electric car sales, 2022-Q1 2025

6
Million

5
Rest of World

4
United States
3

2 Europe

1
China
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2022 2023 2024 2025

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Sources: IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes.

Between January and March 2025, China averaged monthly sales of around
875 000 electric cars, with total sales of more than 2.5 million. While the electric
sales share was less than 45% in January, it reached more than 50% in both
February and March. Across the full first quarter, the share of electric car sales
was similar to that of 2024.

In Europe, electric car sales reached more than 900 000 in the first quarter of
2025, 625 000 of which were sold in the European Union. The electric sales share
has also been increasing, averaging one in four cars sold in Europe in the first
three months of 2025. In the United Kingdom, electric cars represented 30% of
cars sold in the first quarter, while in the European Union the share was less than
25%.

More than 360 000 electric cars were sold in the United States in the first three
months of 2025, around 10% more than during the same period the previous year.
Total car sales grew at a similar rate, meaning the electric car sales share in the
United States remained around 10%, the average across 2024.

In Canada, the federal government's iZEV incentive programme, which has

supported electric car adoption with rebates of up to CAD 5 000 (Canadian dollars)
(USD 3 500) since 2019, was paused in January 2025 as programme funds had
been fully committed. Despite this, electric cars sales still grew by around 10% in
the first quarter, in part because some province-level subsidies remain available.

Several emerging electric car markets continued to see strong growth in the first
quarter of 2025. In Brazil, for example, electric car sales exceeded 30 000 across
the first three months of 2025, 40% more than during the same period in 2024.
Sales in India grew 45% year-on-year, nearing 35 000 electric car sales for the
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 25
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in electric car markets

first quarter of 2025. Electric car sales in Viet Nam also approached 35 000 for the
first quarter – nearly four times as many as were sold during the first quarter of
2024 – leading sales across Southeast Asia to double to over 100 000 between
January and March 2025.

Electric car sales are expected to exceed 20 million in 2025,

representing one-quarter of total car sales
For the full year 2025, electric car sales are expected to increase by 25% globally,
which is similar to the growth rate from the 2024. As a result, electric car sales top
20 million worldwide. While sales volumes may be impacted by economic and
policy uncertainties, more than one in four cars sold in 2025 is expected to be
electric.

Building on strong sales in the first quarter of 2025, China is expected to sell over
14 million electric cars across the full year – more than were sold globally in 2023.
Sales of both electric and conventional cars are supported by the extension of the
trade-in scheme for older vehicles. The sales share of electric cars in China is
expected to reach around 60% in 2025.

The European Commission announced in March 2025 that OEMs would be given
flexibilities in meeting the 2025 CO2 targets for cars and vans. On this basis, OEMs
now only need to achieve the 15% emissions reduction target (compared to the
2021 baseline) on average over 2025-2027. This announcement was made in
response to auto industry claims that the 2025 target would be unachievable, and
would thus incur significant financial penalties that would damage the already
struggling European auto industry. As yet, it is unclear how different OEMs will
approach meeting the 3-year average target, in terms of the degree of under-
performance that could be accepted in 2025 but would then need to be
compensated for in the following 2 years.

The new phase of the CO2 targets in the European Union is expected to drive up
electric car sales, although the new flexibilities mean OEMs have less of an
incentive to bring lower-priced electric cars to market this year. Given that a
purchase premium for electric cars persists in Europe, the phase-out of EV
purchase subsidies in some European countries could place downward pressure
on sales, but there are signs to the contrary. At the end of 2024, the electric car
purchase subsidy in the Netherlands came to an end, but electric car sales in the
country in the first quarter of 2025 were about 10% higher than during the same
period of 2024. In Italy, direct purchase subsidies for electric cars are no longer
being renewed after 2024, though the government does aim to support the
domestic production of EVs. In the first three months of 2025, electric car sales in
Italy were up almost 50%.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 26
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in electric car markets

Over the course of the year, electric car sales are expected to reach around
4 million across Europe. In line with this, the share of electric cars sales would
increase several percentage points compared to 2024, to around 25%. The
increase in electric car sales across Europe is boosted by the UK Vehicle
Emissions Trading Scheme, which sets the target of 28% battery electric car sales
in 2025.

In the United States, Executive Order 14154 directed the government to

reconsider market interventions that favour EVs. Legislation has since been
proposed that would end the Clean Vehicle Tax Credit for both cars and light
commercial vehicles. In 2025, this proposal may result in consumers that have
been considering buying an electric car rushing to do so before the tax credit is
removed. A dampening effect on EV sales in the United States is expected only
once the tax credit is repealed, and the timeline for that is uncertain. In addition,
tariffs for conventional and electric cars have also been announced, which may
result in lower car sales. For the full year, electric car sales in the United States
are expected grow almost 10% in 2025, with a slight increase in the electric car
sales share.

Across the rest of the world, electric car sales are expected to grow by over 30%
to around 1.8 million. This would mean electric cars account for 6% of all car sales
outside of the three major EV markets in 2025, up from 5% in 2024. The strong
growth seen in Southeast Asia and Brazil is expected to continue, reaching sales
of more than 0.5 million combined in 2025.

Government spending on electric cars

Subsidy phase-outs are leading to ever lower shares of
government spending in the EV market
As electric car sales have grown over the past decade, government spending per
vehicle, in the form of purchase subsidies and tax incentives, has steadily declined
– a trend that accelerated in 2022 as subsidies were phased out.

In 2024, government spending accounted for less than 7% of total spending on

electric cars globally, compared to 20% in 2017. In absolute terms, annual
government spending on electric cars has hovered around the USD 38 billion
mark since 2022. At the same time, total consumer spending on electric cars
globally has grown continuously to reach USD 560 billion in 2024.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 27
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in electric car markets

Global consumer and government spending on electric cars, 2017-2024

600 30%
Billion USD (2024)

500 25%

400 20%

300 15%

200 10%

100 5%

0 0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Consumer spending Government spending Share of government spending in total (right axis)

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Government spending is the sum of direct central government spending through purchase incentives and foregone
revenue due to purchase and registration taxes waived specifically for new electric cars. Only central government purchase
support policies for electric cars are taken into account. Spending on charging is not included. Consumer spending is the
total expenditure based on model price, minus government incentives. Values and trends may change slightly relative to
previous publications following methodology improvements and better coverage of government support schemes.
Sources: IEA analysis based on EV Volumes and national policy documents.

China has had the largest absolute public spending since 2020, despite its subsidy
scheme coming to an end in December 2022 after 12 years. Other incentives have
remained in place – notably, electric cars being exempt from the 10% purchase
tax that applies to other vehicles. In 2024, China introduced a trade-in subsidy with
a higher premium for the purchase of EVs. The additional expenditure to support
EV purchases is estimated to be around USD 2.7 billion for 2024. 4 Nevertheless,
Chinese government expenditure per vehicle dropped 25% between 2022 and
2024. China has the highest share of subsidies going to PHEVs, at nearly 45%,
as a result of the 10% purchase tax exemption being applied to PHEVs, which are
on average more expensive than BEVs. In contrast, government incentives for
PHEVs have almost disappeared from other key markets.

In Europe, subsidy schemes were significantly reshaped in 2023 and 2024. The
most abrupt change was in Germany, where the EUR 4 500 per-vehicle subsidy
was reduced to zero as of December 2023 – which was followed by a drop in EV
market share of 4 percentage points in 2024. As a result, the German government

4
The original funding allocation for the car trade-in subsidies in 2024 was close to CNY 11.2 billion (USD 1.5 billion),
however, for the full year, 6.6 million cars were traded in. The additional expenditure for electric car purchases is estimated
by applying the CNY 5 000 subsidy differential to the 60% of trade-ins that were for the purchase of an electric car.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 28
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in electric car markets

has introduced new tax benefits for companies buying EVs, effective from July
2024 through to 2028. Company cars account for about two-thirds of registrations
in the country.

In the United Kingdom, all subsidies were removed at the end of 2022 but electric
car sales have continued to increase, thanks in part to the Vehicle Emissions
Trading Schemes, which set targets for zero-emission car sales starting from
2024. In addition, the growth in EV sales was underpinned by a set of tax rebates
for company cars, which represented about 60% of total car registrations in 2024.
When factoring in all government tax incentives, an ICE car would incur more than
10 times the company car tax of an equivalent BEV, compared to Germany where
this ratio is around 4.

Similarly, Sweden ended its subsidy programme offering up to SEK 60 000

(Swedish kronor) (USD 5 800) per electric car in November 2022. Absolute
volumes of electric car sales in the country decreased 10% in 2024, though the
country’s EV sales share fell only very slightly due to a drop in overall car sales.
In several other European countries, subsidies were either reduced in absolute
terms, or their conditions have become more stringent, with a faster roll-back of
subsidies for PHEVs. As a result, the average subsidy per vehicle in Europe has
fallen rapidly, from more than USD 4 500 per vehicle in 2022 to around USD 1 000
in 2024. The phase-down or interruption of subsidy schemes in Europe has had
differing consequences on EV market shares at the national level, but the rapid
decrease in subsidies has not been followed by an equivalent decrease in EV
market share, providing an encouraging sign of market resilience.

In the United States, the introduction of the Inflation Reduction Act expanded the
number of vehicles eligible for tax credits in 2023. However, the list of vehicles
eligible for the USD 7 500 tax credit has since changed repeatedly as Internal
Revenue Service guidelines have been implemented. The average tax credit in
2024 was approximately USD 4 000 per vehicle, since not all electric cars were
eligible and some were eligible for only USD 3 750. In both 2023 and 2024, the
United States had the highest per-vehicle subsidy of the three major EV markets.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in electric car markets

Government spending on electric cars by region and powertrain, 2019-2024

35 14
Billion USD (2024)

Thousand USD (2024)

30 12

25 10

20 8

15 6

10 4

5 2

0 0
'19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
China Europe United States

BEV government spending PHEV government spending Government support per vehicle (right axis)

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: BEV = battery electric vehicle; PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. Government spending is the sum of direct
central government spending through purchase incentives and foregone revenue due to purchase and registration taxes
waived specifically for new electric cars. Only central government purchase support policies for electric cars are taken into
account. Spending on charging is not included. Consumer spending is the total expenditure based on model price, minus
government incentives. Excludes incentives for company cars. Values and trends may change slightly relative to previous
publications following methodology improvements and better coverage of government support schemes.
Sources: IEA analysis based on EV Volumes and national policy documents.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

2. Trends in the electric car

industry

Manufacturing and trade

Steady growth in global electric car production masks
differences at the regional level
A total 17.3 million electric cars were produced worldwide in 2024, about one-
quarter more than in 2023, largely as a result of increased production in China,
which reached 12.4 million electric cars. China remains the world’s electric car
manufacturing hub, accounting for more than 70% of global production in 2024.
Production in China has been increasingly shaped by the expansion of domestic
manufacturers. In 2024, Chinese OEMs accounted for more than 80% of domestic
production, up from roughly two-thirds in 2021. Despite the numerous recently
announced foreign direct investment plans from Chinese OEMs, their overseas
production has yet to ramp up. Electric car production by Chinese OEMs operating
outside China accounted for less than 2% of their global output in 2024.

In the world’s second-largest electric car manufacturing region, the

European Union, production stagnated at 2.4 million cars in 2024, but surpassed
domestic sales by more than 5%. Domestic carmakers were behind nearly 80%
of the region’s total output, but there were contrasting trends among EU OEMs.
While German OEMs marked a 5% year-on-year increase in their EU output, other
EU OEMs (Stellantis and Renault) saw their regional production drop by over 15%,
producing about 420 000 electric cars, or less than 20% of the region’s output.
Meanwhile, there was a sixfold increase in EU production by US OEMs between
2021 and 2024, predominantly led by Tesla and Ford. This contributed to the share
of foreign OEMs in EU production reaching about 20% in 2024.

Elsewhere in Europe, the United Kingdom saw its electric car output drop 30%
year-on-year in 2024 to around 80 000 electric cars, while Türkiye’s production
grew to 45 000, with two-thirds produced by domestic manufacturer Togg.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

Production of electric cars by region and location of car manufacturer headquarters,

2021-2024

14 3.0
Millions

12 2.5
10
2.0
8
1.5
6
1.0
4

2 0.5

0 0.0
2021

2022

2023

2024

2021

2022

2023

2024

2021

2022

2023

2024

2021

2022

2023

2024

2021

2022

2023

2024
China European Union North America Other Asia Pacific Rest of World

OEM headquarters location:

European Union United States Japan/Korea China China (JV) Rest of World Domestic sales

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: OEM = original equipment manufacturer; JV = joint venture. Other Asia Pacific includes Australia, New Zealand,
Japan, Korea, India and Southeast Asia. North America includes Canada, the United States and Mexico. Tesla is the only
foreign OEM producing electric cars in China that is not part of a joint venture with a Chinese OEM.
Sources: IEA analysis based on EV Volumes.

Manufacturing trends in North America showed notable contrasts. The gap

between domestic production and sales in North America has increased steadily
over the past 3 years. In 2024, despite electric car production falling 7% in the
United States, overall output across the region remained unchanged year-on-
year, as the decline in US output was offset by Mexico doubling its production to
220 000 electric cars. US-headquartered carmakers ramping up their
manufacturing operations in Mexico were responsible for 70% of the country’s total
output, followed by Japanese and EU OEMs contributing equally to the remaining
30%. Meanwhile, Canada’s output paled in comparison to its neighbours,
remaining constant from 2023 at 25 000 vehicles.

Electric car production also increased in Asia Pacific countries other than China
to reach about 1 million. While incumbent carmakers such as Japan’s Toyota and
Korea’s Hyundai were behind most of the region’s output, emerging EV players
like VinFast in Viet Nam or Tata in India were responsible for an increasing share
of production, growing from 10% in 2023 to 15% in 2024. In India, in particular,
domestic OEMs (Tata and Mahindra) accounted for more than 80% of the 75 000
electric cars produced domestically in 2024.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

Global trade of electric cars grew nearly 20% in 2024

China and the European Union remained the world’s largest EV

exporters, while Mexico ramped up exports to the United States
Global electric car exports 1 surged by nearly 20% in 2024, reaching about
3.2 million electric cars and accounting for almost 20% of global sales, a share
similar to that seen in 2023 and 2022. As with manufacturing, China accounted
for the largest share, with 40% of global exports, or nearly 1.25 million electric cars.

Production, demand and net trade of electric cars in major global markets, 2024

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Prod = production; Dem = demand; M = million cars. Net trade flows are in thousand vehicles and rounded to the
nearest 10 000. Net trade flows under 20 000 vehicles are not shown. Stockpiling (the difference between exports and
actual sales) of electric cars is not taken into account, and trade flows represent the number of electric cars manufactured
in one country or region and sold in another region or country. “Other Asia Pacific” comprises Australia, New Zealand,
Japan, Korea, India and Southeast Asia. “Other North America” includes Canada and Mexico. Other Europe includes
Norway, Iceland, Israel, Switzerland, Türkiye, the United Kingdom and other European countries that are not EU member
states.
Source: IEA analysis based on EV Volumes.

In 2024, the European Union saw its exports grow 9% year-on-year to nearly
830 000 electric cars. The key destination markets for EU-made electric cars
remained unchanged, with other European countries accounting for almost 60%

1
Unless specified otherwise, exports and imports of electric cars are calculated based on the sales of vehicles manufactured
in a different location to the country in which they are sold. Global car exports and imports are assessed at the country level,
except for the European Union, where internal trade between member states is excluded.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

of exports (40% to the United Kingdom), followed by North America, accounting

for about one-quarter of EU exports. The European Union remained a net exporter
of electric cars in 2024, despite importing about 680 000 electric cars. While
imports from China remained steady in 2024 at more than 400 000 electric cars
(60% of EU imports), the share of Chinese OEMs in imports from China grew to
two-thirds in 2024, up from 50% in the previous year. The Chinese OEM Geely
accounted for almost 40% of these imports, mainly through its brand Volvo Cars,
while Tesla’s share decreased from 30% to 20% as more than half of its EU sales
in 2024 were produced at its German assembly plant. Other European countries
rely significantly on imports, primarily from the European Union. The majority of
production elsewhere in Europe is based in the United Kingdom and Türkiye,
but these countries were responsible for less than 15% of regional sales in 2024.
China was the second-largest trade partner for electric cars, accounting for more
than one-quarter of the 840 000 electric cars imported by non-EU European
countries in 2024.

The United States remained a net importer of electric cars in 2024. Exports fell
nearly 15% year-on-year to less than 200 000 electric cars, while imports grew
40% to 630 000. In 2024, Mexico became the United States' largest electric car
trade partner, with net exports to the United States reaching 145 000 vehicles.
Imports from Mexico grew threefold compared to 2023, representing more than
two-thirds of Mexico’s output. This surge was primarily driven by US OEMs
(accounting for 70% of Mexico’s exports to the United States) and Japanese
OEMs (20%). Japan and Korea, previously the largest next exporters to the
United States, each accounted for net exports of roughly 135 000 vehicles in 2024.
Despite being the top source of imports in gross terms, the European Union
ranked fourth in net electric car exports to the United States in 2024, totalling about
110 000 vehicles. Meanwhile, 40% of US-made electric car exports went to
Canada in 2024, making it the largest US export market.

Japan and Korea accounted for the majority of the nearly 640 000 electric cars
exported from the Asia Pacific region excluding China in 2024, primarily through
their domestic manufacturers, with an increase of 15% from 2023. The
United States was the main destination market for these exports, accounting for
more than a quarter of the 1 million electric cars produced in the region. Europe
followed, importing another quarter of the region’s production.

Chinese exports are increasingly driven by domestic OEMs as

their destinations diversify
While it remains the world’s largest exporter of electric cars, China experienced a
noticeable slowdown in export growth in 2024. According to the China Association
of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the country exported over 1.15 million
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

electric cars in 2023, marking a staggering 80% growth from 2022. However, in
2024, annual export growth fell to just 7%, split unevenly across destination
markets.

Several factors contributed to this slowdown. Firstly, the increase in trade

restrictions resulting from tariff hikes in major export markets prompted Chinese
OEMs to frontload their exports before such tariffs came into force. In Brazil for
example, although Chinese imports saw strong year-on-year growth, with an
increase of 120% in 2024, they dropped sharply by a factor of eight in the second
half of the year following the reinstatement of tariffs. Europe remained the most
important export market for Chinese-made electric cars, but weakening demand,
reluctance of European consumers to buy Chinese EV brands and new
countervailing duties in the European Union led the share of value attributed to
Europe in total Chinese EV exports to fall from over 70% in 2021 to roughly 40%
in 2024. As a result, Chinese exports increasingly shifted towards emerging
markets such as Mexico (+370%), Southeast Asia (+10%), Russian Federation
(hereafter: Russia) and countries in the Caspian Sea region.

Sales of Chinese-made electric cars outside China by region (left), export value shares
per destination region (centre), and overseas sales by location of original equipment
manufacturer headquarters (right), 2021-2024

Overseas sales Exports Overseas sales

and exports by quantity by value share by OEM headquarters
1.5 100%
Million units

1.4 90%
1.2 80%
1.1 70%
0.9 60%
0.8 50%
0.6 40%
0.5 30%
0.3 20%
0.2 10%
0.0 0%
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024

European Union Other Europe Eurasia

China Other Asia Pacific North America
South America Rest of World EV exports

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: EV = Electric Vehicles, which include electric cars only in this figure; OEM = original equipment manufacturer. Left
and right figures use EV Volumes to represent the sales of Chinese-made electric cars in overseas markets by destination
market and OEM headquarters location. Discrepancies with EV exports reported by China Association of Automobile
Manufacturers (CAAM) (white dot) are explained by stockpiling of unsold Chinese electric cars in export markets. The
exports by value in the central figure are taken from General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China
(GACC) trade tables queried with HS codes 870360 and 870380, which also include low-speed EVs. Other Asia Pacific
includes Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Korea, India and other Southeast Asian countries. Eurasia includes the Caspian
regional grouping and Russia.
Sources: IEA analysis based on EV Volumes, CAAM and GACC.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

Inventory build-up by Chinese OEMs also contributed to the slowdown in Chinese

export growth. In 2023, sales of Chinese-made electric cars outside China fell
short by 275 000 cars compared to CAAM’s reported exports. This led to clogged
destination seaports, particularly in Europe and Brazil, and limited the capacity for
additional imports in 2024 until excess inventory was cleared. However, this
stockpile helped sustain overseas sales growth of 35% for Chinese-made electric
cars in 2024, while exports grew only 7%.

Chinese OEMs accounted for 70% of 2024 total electric car exports from China,
up from 55% in 2023. To sustain their export momentum, Chinese OEMs are
investing in expanding shipping capacity through roll-on/roll-off (Ro-Ro) car
carriers. In 2025, BYD commissioned the world’s largest Ro-Ro vessel, bringing
its total shipping capacity to more than 30 000 electric cars. Meanwhile, a leading
Chinese car shipping company, COSCO Shipping Car Carriers, announced plans
to expand its fleet to handle up to 700 000 cars annually. Despite the 2024 export
slowdown, this surge in shipping capacity positions Chinese OEMs for renewed
growth, playing a crucial role in facilitating exports from China and emerging
manufacturing hubs like Southeast Asia.

Tightening trade restrictions are pushing Chinese OEMs to

expand their overseas manufacturing footprint
As Chinese electric car production continues to outpace domestic demand,
Chinese OEMs are increasingly looking abroad to capture a larger share of the
global electric car market. However, tariff changes across several regions are
making it more difficult for Chinese-made electric cars to remain competitive in key
destination markets. In 2024, multiple regions introduced new tariffs on Chinese
electric car imports. This included the European Union, which imposed OEM-
specific countervailing duties on Chinese battery electric car imports, aimed at
offsetting alleged manufacturing subsidies received by OEMs in China. Meanwhile,
the United States and Canada implemented new tariffs exceeding 100% in 2024,
with further increases to tariffs on Chinese imports announced in 2025 in the
United States, effectively deterring future Chinese electric car imports. Mexico and
Brazil, both of which have recently experienced a surge in Chinese EV imports,
have also approved tariff hikes. In 2024, Mexico ended its 15-20% tariff exemption
on EV imports from countries without a free trade agreement, including China.
Brazil reinstated 10% import tariffs on electric cars in 2024, with plans to gradually
raise them every 6 months to reach 35% by the middle of 2026.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

Changes in tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports in selected regions, 1 January

2024-1 January 2025

120% 40%
105% 35%

Export share (%)

90% 30%
Tariffs (%)

75% 25%
60% 20%
45% 15%
30% 10%
15% 5%
0% 0%

India

Kingdom
United

Thailand

Russia

Uzbekistan

Japan
Brazil
European

Mexico

Indonesia

Australia
Canada

Türkiye
States

United
Union

Closed to Open to local production and exports Open to exports

local
production
and exports
Previous tariffs New tariffs New tariff range New tariffs (if local production)
2024 value share of total Chinese EV exports (right)

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Previous tariffs refer to tariffs in place on 1 January 2024 while new tariffs refer to those in place on 1 January 2025.
Indonesia has set a waiver on electric vehicle (EV) import duties for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) committing
to produce locally until 1 January 2026. The free trade agreement between Thailand and China reduces the usually applied
tariff rate from 80% to 0%. In June 2024, Türkiye imposed a 40% additional tariff on China-made cars and, one month later,
exempted vehicles imported under investment incentive certificates. Brazil’s import duties on EVs are set to 18% (20% for
plug-in hybrids) in the first half of 2025 and will gradually increase to 35% by 2026. The European Union’s import duties
apply only to battery electric cars and vary across OEMs. Russia’s 15% tariff on EV imports does not include the recycling
fee which amounts to USD 4 400 (RUB 360 000 Russian rubles) per imported EV. The Indian government announced a
decrease in import duties to 15% for manufacturers committing to produce locally within 3 years with a minimum
investment of about USD 500 million. 2024 value of Chinese EV exports is taken from General Administration of Customs
of the People's Republic of China (GACC) interactive trade tables queried with HS codes 870360 and 870380.
Sources: IEA analysis based on ITC (Market Access Map), GACC.

These additional export costs are prompting Chinese OEMs to establish new
overseas manufacturing capacities. The assembly plants being planned are
intended to both directly supply local markets (like BYD’s plant in Brazil) and
produce EVs for exports, thereby limiting exposure to tariff hikes targeting imports
from China (such as from BYD’s plant in Türkiye for exports to the
European Union).

Most of the overseas production capacity owned by Chinese OEMs today is in the
European Union, primarily through Volvo Cars’ assembly plants, which produced
more than 160 000 electric cars last year. By 2026, when including both EV-only
assembly plants and dual EV/ICE assembly plants, overseas manufacturing
capacity belonging to Chinese OEMs is expected to almost double to reach over
4.3 million vehicles per year. Europe and Southeast Asia are likely to remain the
primary locations of these new electric car assembly plants, with almost half of the
total Chinese overseas manufacturing capacity being located in Europe by 2026.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

Commissioned and committed announced overseas electric vehicle manufacturing

capacity of Chinese original equipment manufacturers, 2024-2030

5 100%

Million units
4 80%

3 60%

2 40%

1 20%

0 0%
2024 2025 2026 2030
Commissioned Commissioned + Announced

European Union Other Europe North America Southeast Asia

Eurasia South America Rest of World EV-only share (right axis)

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: EV = electric vehicle. Manufacturing capacity refers to plants producing EVs, either exclusively or alongside internal
combustion engine cars without specifying the EV share. The EV-only share is calculated as the share of EV-only
commissioned and announced assembly plants in total manufacturing capacity shown. Volvo brand commitments to reach
a 50% and 90% EV share in its 2025 and 2030 sales, respectively, are treated as EV-only manufacturing capacity and are
therefore accounted for in the EV-only share. Both full-process manufacturing and knocked-down (in which pre-
manufactured components are imported and assembled) types of assembly plants are considered. Announcements refer to
committed investments only.
Sources: IEA analysis based on Marklines, Atlas EV Hub, OEM announcements.

Thanks to policies supporting EV manufacturing, access to raw materials, and a

well-established automotive industry, Southeast Asia is poised to see the largest
increase in Chinese OEMs’ overseas manufacturing capacity. Countries including
Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Viet Nam have all put in place policies either
favouring domestic manufacturing over imports, or providing exemptions from
import and income taxes for OEMs committing to produce domestically. As a result,
the combined EV-only and dual EV/ICE manufacturing capacity of Chinese OEMs
in Southeast Asia is set to increase almost threefold by 2026 to reach 1.2 million
vehicles (more than one-quarter of the total overseas manufacturing capacity of
Chinese OEMs).
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

Model availability
The number of electric car models keeps growing,
especially for larger cars and SUVs

Available electric car models could number more than 1 000 by

2026
The number of available models for electric cars increased 15% year-on-year to
reach nearly 785 in 2024. While today there are 50% fewer electric models than
ICE and hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) 2 models, this gap is narrowing and is
expected to shrink to around 30% by 2027 based on announcements by OEMs.

While its EV sales share remained largely unchanged, Europe saw the fastest
increase in model availability over the past year, with a jump from 290 models to
more than 360. The growth seen in 2024 is expected to almost double by 2026:
As stricter emissions standards come into force in the European Union, more than
140 additional models are due to enter the market. For example, Volkswagen and
Stellantis have announced plans to introduce about 35 new electric models
between them by 2026.

Global availability of car models by powertrain, 2015-2027

Announced models
1 800
Number of models

1 500

1 200

900

600

300

0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

ICE cars Hybrid cars Electric cars

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: ICE = internal combustion engine. Based on historic data and announced launches. Electric cars include battery
electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). Hybrid cars are full hybrid models, mild hybrids are
included in ICE cars. Analysis based on models for which there was at least one new registration in a given year; a model
on sale but never sold is not counted, and as such actual model availability may be underestimated. Models are counted by
brand model and do not include different trims. The announced models from 2025 to 2027 are based on electric model
announcements and the number of ICE and hybrid models based on the trend over 2022-2024.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes and Marklines.

2
A hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), which is powered by an ICE in combination with one or more electric motors using energy
from batteries, can be in either a mild configuration or a full configuration. Mild hybrids use a battery and electric motor to
help power the vehicle but cannot power the vehicle using electricity alone. A full hybrid can power a vehicle using electricity
over short distances and at low speeds, thanks to its more powerful electric motor and larger battery. HEV batteries are
charged through regenerative braking and by the ICE; HEVs cannot be plugged in to charge the battery and are not
considered under the definition of electric vehicle.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

The share of larger cars and SUVs among EV models coming onto the market
continues to expand. In 2024, 70% of available EV models were large (segments
E to F) cars, SUVs or pick-ups, compared to 65% in 2023. Nevertheless, there are
signs that this share is levelling out in some markets. In Europe, 23 additional
small electric models (segments A and B) are expected to join the 33 small models
currently on the market. The United States has the lowest number of small electric
models available, and nearly 90% of models available today are large cars or
SUVs.

China has the most EV models across all segments

The highest model availability for electric cars can be found in China, where nearly
60% of all models on offer are electric – 5 times more than the number of electric
models available in the United States. The large car and SUV segments are the
most profitable for OEMs, and many have therefore developed these models as a
preference. As a result, the number of small and medium models available in
China is only one-third of the number of large or SUV models.

Yet despite model availability being more limited than for large cars, the small car
segment is nearly fully electrified in China, with more than 90% of sales in the
segment being electric. There were 45 small electric car models available in 2024,
compared to fewer than 10 small conventional cars. The decline in number of
conventional small models started in 2014 and by 2017 electric and conventional
models were on par with around 30 models each. The small electric Seagull from
BYD was one of the best-selling cars of 2024 across all segments and the best-
selling small car, with about 440 000 sales. Sales came in just slightly behind the
best-selling model overall, the Tesla Model Y (an SUV), which reached 485 000
sales. The fast pace of electrification of the small segment can be attributed to
their affordability (see EV affordability in China), in combination with a push for
local manufacturing and measures to improve air quality in China’s provincial ‘tier
3’ cities.

In contrast, in Japan and Europe, the large car segment is the most electrified,
and the small car segment the least. However, this does not necessarily reflect
model availability: in Japan, the share of electric models on offer in the large car
segment is about 50%, but only 6% of large car sales are electric. Similarly, in
Europe, where more than 40% of all small and medium models available are
electric, the electric sales share in these segments is just 20%. In the
United States there are nearly 100 electric large or SUV models available, which
is less than half of the number of ICE and HEV models available.

Growing model availability supports EV adoption, but price appears to be the key
determinant of EV penetration within small and medium size segments. People
purchasing small and medium cars are likely to be more price sensitive than
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

buyers of larger models, making price parity particularly important for electrifying
these segments. In Germany, less than 5% of small BEVs sold were cheaper than
their ICE equivalent, as described in the section on EV affordability in Europe.

Number of available car models by powertrain and electric vehicle sales share per size
segment for selected regions, 2024

Small Medium Large and SUV

Number of models

125 250 500 100%

EV sales share
100 200 400 80%

75 150 300 60%

50 100 200 40%

25 50 100 20%

0 0 0 0%

ICE cars Hybrid cars Electric cars EV sales share within segment size (right axis)

IEA. CC BY 4.0
Notes: SUV = sports utility vehicle; ICE = internal combustion engine; EV = electric vehicle. Electric cars include battery
electric and plug-hybrid vehicles; hybrid cars are full hybrid models; and mild hybrids are included in ICE cars. Analysis is
based on models for which there was at least one new registration each year; a model on sale but never sold is not
counted, and as such actual model availability may be underestimated. Models are counted by brand model and do not
include different trims. Small cars include A and B segments; medium cars include C and D segments and A segments with
SUV body type; large cars and SUVs include E and F segments, multi-purpose vehicles and C to B segments with SUV
body type.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes and Marklines.

In major markets, battery electric models now represent around

two-thirds of all electric car models
There are now more BEV models available than PHEV models. Over time, the
share of BEV models among total electric car models in China, Europe and the
United States has converged to reach a ratio of about two BEVs for every PHEV.
While BEVs were the focus for OEMs in the early years (2014 and earlier), their
share among electric car models then dropped in Europe, Japan and the
United States, before beginning to increase again around 2020 in the
United States and Europe. In Japan, the split remains at 50:50, while the average
globally is more than three BEV models for every two PHEVs. Within the PHEV
segment, the number of extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) models has
grown in recent years, increasing by 40% from 31 models in 2023 to 43 models in
2024 (see Box below).
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 41
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

Number of models by powertrain in selected markets and globally, 2024 (left), and
share of battery electric vehicle models in total number of electric car models (right),
2014-2024

1 500 100%
Number of models

1 200 80%

900 60%

600 40%

300 20%

0 0%
World China United Europe Japan
States 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

World China
BEV PHEV EREV Other cars United States Europe
Japan
IEA. CC BY 4.0
Notes: BEV = battery electric vehicle; PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle not including EREVs; EREV = extended-range
electric vehicle. Other cars include hybrids and internal combustion engine cars.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes and Marklines.

OEMs adopt different strategies for electric model

announcements in different regions
The number of electric models on the Chinese market today is already greater
than the number of ICE and hybrid models. Based on announcements, and
assuming the level of ICE and hybrid models remains constant, by 2030 there will
be two electric models available for every conventional car model. Domestic
OEMs such as BYD and Geely already offer twice as many electric models than
conventional models. This is in contrast to the offering from OEMs headquartered
elsewhere in the world, which have slightly fewer electric than ICE models
available in China. However, this balance is likely to shift in favour of electric by
2030, with around 80 additional electric models announced. OEMs headquartered
in Europe (such as Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes) offer the most electric
models after Chinese OEMs.

Based on electric car model announcements, the gap between the number of
conventional and electric models shrinks the most to 2030 in the European
market. Chinese OEMs in this market already offer more electric models than
conventional models, but European OEMs are now closing the gap by increasing
their electric offerings by 50% by 2030, which is more than OEMs headquartered
in other regions. About 40% of these new EV models are small or medium cars.
Volkswagen and Stellantis, both of which have a greater focus on these vehicle
segments than other European OEMs, are behind more than half of all
announcements for small or medium models in the European market, as they are
urged to release affordable models to meet their fleet-wide CO2 target in the short
term.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

In the North American market, larger cars are the focus for many OEMs. Of the
110 electric car models available today, only 2 are small (the Mini Cooper BEV
and Fiat 500 BEV), with sales totalling 3 000 in 2024 – less than 1% of all electric
car sales. However, about 15% of the electric models due to enter the market in
the next few years are medium sized, compared to 9% of available models today.
Despite an increase of about 145 electric models by 2030, which will more than
double the model availability for electric cars in the region, the number of
conventional models will remain 70% higher.

Number of car models by location of manufacturer’s headquarters and size segment,

2024, and announced models by 2030 for selected markets

Chinese market European market

600
Number of electric models

500

400

300

200

100

0
2024
2030

2024
2030

2024
2030

2024
2030
2024
2030

2024
2030

2024
2030

2024
2030

United Europe Japan and China United EuropeJapan and China

States Korea States Korea
Headquarters location Headquarters location

North American market

150
Number of electric models

125

100

75

50

25

0
2024
2030

2024
2030

2024
2030

United States Europe Japan and

Korea
Headquarters location

Large and SUV Medium Small ICE and hybrid cars

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: SUV = sports utility vehicle; ICE = internal combustion engine. Small cars include A and B segments; medium cars
include C and D segments and A segments with SUV body type; large and SUV cars include E and F segments, multi-
purpose vehicles and C to B segments with SUV body type. The models from the Renault-Nissan Alliance have their
headquarters assigned by brand. Brands with headquarters located in other regions such as India, Viet Nam and Chinese
Taipei are not included and account for 8-12% of announcements, depending on the market. It is assumed that none of the
current electric models will be phased out.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

Electric vehicle range

No change to average range of battery electric cars in
2024
The sales-weighted average range (hereafter, “average range”) of battery electric
cars globally remained the same in 2024, at about 340 km under on-road
conditions. The average range was significantly lower for small cars, at just above
150 km, while medium and large cars, as well as SUVs, all maintained ranges
above 350 km. As market competition intensifies, the fact that average range has
stabilised in the past year could indicate that carmakers have found an optimal
balance between range performance and vehicle manufacturing costs. This
levelling-off of driving range also offers energy and environmental benefits, as
longer ranges also require larger batteries, which increase vehicle energy
consumption and demand for critical minerals.

In the United States and Europe, the average electric range increased by less than
5%, primarily driven by the growing interest in electric SUVs, which continued to
dominate the EV market – exceeding 75% of sales in the United States and
reaching around 60% in Europe. Across Europe, the average range of a battery
SUV car reached almost 400 km under on-road conditions. Nevertheless, this falls
short of the 500 km that respondents to a recent survey stated as their range
preference. Meanwhile, in China, the average range remained stable as EV
producers prioritised cost-cutting in the face of strong domestic competition.

Sales-weighted average range of battery electric cars by segment, 2015-2024

400
kilometres

300

200

100

0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Small car Medium car Large car SUV Average car

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: SUV = sports utility vehicle. Range is calculated using the global sales-weighted average vehicle efficiency of
battery electric vehicles and their battery capacity by size segment. The vehicle efficiency considered in calculations
reflects on-road driving conditions by applying a factor of 1.1 to the Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure
(WLTP) vehicle efficiency (in [kWh/100 km]). The range considers full battery utilisation, from 100% to 0% state of charge.
Small cars include A and B segments; medium cars include C and D segments, A segments with SUV body type and B
segments with multi-purpose vehicle (MPV) body type; large cars include E and F segments, B segments with SUV body
type and D segments with MPV body type; SUV includes segments C to F with SUV body type and remaining segments
with MPV body type.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are growing in popularity in

China
Consumers purchasing large cars and SUVs in China are increasingly opting to
buy plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) as a more flexible option. The key
appeal of PHEVs lies in their ability to handle long trips even when charging
infrastructure is insufficient or congested. PHEV electric range in China grew by
over 20% between 2020 and 2024, reaching almost 100 km. In contrast, electric
ranges stalled in Europe and the United States at about 65 km. The environmental
benefit of PHEVs largely depends on charging behaviour, which can lead to real-
world tailpipe CO2 emissions that are significantly higher than type-approval
values.

Total car sales in China per segment and powertrain, 2024

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: BEV = battery electric vehicle; PHEV= plug-in hybrid vehicle; EREV = extended-range electric vehicle; SUV = sports
utility vehicle. The width of each vehicle category in the horizontal axis is proportional to their Chinese market sales. Small
cars include A and B segments; medium cars include C and D segments, A segments with SUV body type and B segments
with multi-purpose vehicle (MPV) body type; large cars include E and F segments, B segments with SUV body type and D
segments with MPV body type; SUV includes C to F segments with SUV body type.
Sources: IEA analysis based on EV Volumes and Marklines.

Extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) have gained ground in recent years,

almost entirely as a result of growing adoption in China. Uptake has been primarily
in larger and heavier high-end vehicle segments. In 2024, EREV models
accounted for nearly 25% of electric SUV sales in China, and they dominated the
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 45
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

larger end of the electric SUV segment, making up 60% of large electric SUV sales
(over 4.8 metres in length). More than 70% of the 40 EREV models available today
belong to the SUV category (including multi-purpose vehicles and pick-up trucks),
while the rest is mostly part of the large car segment category. In total, 14
additional EREV models are expected to be released by the end of 2025. Similarly,
the four announced EREV models due for launch outside of China by 2026 (by
Scout and RAM in the United States and Changan in Europe), in addition to the
two already available today (Mazda and Leapmotor in Europe), are all positioned
within the large pick-up truck and SUV segments.

Extended-range electric vehicles: advantages and limitations

In 2024, the average EREV in China had an electric range of about 120 km, compared
to around 85 km for a standard PHEV. While the range of a standard PHEV has
increased significantly in recent years, the longer electric range of EREVs could
reduce charging frequency, increase the share of electric-only driving and lower
reliance on liquid fuels.
As with standard PHEVs, the environmental benefits of EREVs are heavily influenced
by charging behaviour and are generally overestimated in type-approval vehicle fuel
economy ratings. In addition, when EREVs run on low battery, their fuel consumption
compared to standard PHEVs varies depending on driving conditions. In some urban
or low-power driving conditions, EREVs can be more fuel-efficient. However, in many
other cases when the battery is low, the opposite is true: standard PHEVs tend to use
less fuel because their engines can drive the wheels directly, unlike EREVs, which
rely on a generator as an intermediate energy converter.
The components of EREVs also differ from those of standard PHEVs. EREVs require
a generator, advanced power electronics and a larger battery, which can increase
manufacturing costs, although the lack of traditional transmission and simpler engine
design can reduce costs. Their competitiveness compared to standard PHEVs largely
depends on optimising the size of the generator and battery, which are responsible
for the majority of additional costs. Moreover, their chassis design, which is closer to
that of a BEV than a standard PHEV, could accelerate technology transfer from
rapidly evolving BEV battery pack and chassis technologies.
However, as battery electric cars continue to improve in range, charging speed and
affordability, their simpler architecture and higher efficiency could outweigh the trend
towards EREVs. Ultimately, wider adoption of EREVs will largely depend on the range
and affordability of equivalent BEV models, as well as the availability of charging
infrastructure.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 46
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

Electric car affordability

Falling battery pack prices and intensifying competition
underpin progress in electric car affordability
Today, electric cars often have a lower total cost of ownership than ICE cars over
the vehicle lifetime, due to reduced fuel and maintenance expenses. However,
reducing the purchase price 3 gap will be key to broader uptake. In Europe, for
example, respondents to a 2023 survey by the European Commission identified
the price of battery electric cars as the main barrier to adoption. While battery
electric car prices generally fell in 2024, the price gap with ICE cars remains in
most regions.

Electric car affordability has made significant strides over the past decade,
primarily driven by falling battery prices, intensifying market competition and
carmakers reaching economies of scale. In 2024, despite the global average
battery size growing slightly, the global average battery pack price fell more than
25% compared with 2023 levels. This resulted in a global drop in electric car
manufacturing costs that was reflected in the price of electric cars.

Electric car price and battery system price changes in selected countries, 2023-2024

Battery electric car Plug-in hybrid electric car

10% 30%
5% 15%
0% 0%
-5% -15%
-10% -30%
-15% -45%
Medium

SUV

Medium

SUV

Medium

SUV
Medium

SUV

Medium

SUV

Medium

SUV
Small

Small

Small

China United States Germany China United States Germany

Car price change [%] (left axis) Battery pack price change [%] (right axis)

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: SUV = sports utility vehicle. Prices adjusted for inflation before indexing. Car price change values reflect the change
in the sales-weighted average car retail price values over the 2023-2024 period. The battery pack price is calculated based
on the average battery size in a given country, segment and year, multiplied by the corresponding regional pack price.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from S&P Global Mobility, BNEF and EV Volumes.

3
By price we refer to the Manufacturer Suggested Retail Price (MSRP), also known as the sticker price, which includes value-
added taxes, purchase taxes and dealer markups, but excludes purchase subsidies and registration taxes. It differs from the
transaction price in that it does not account for any rebates and discounts applied at the dealership.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 47
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

However, the trend towards falling prices has been uneven across markets, due
to differences in carmakers’ pricing strategies, and in market maturity and the level
of competition. For example, in China, the sales-weighted average (hereafter,
“average”) price of a battery electric SUV fell almost 10% year-on-year in 2024,
partly due to the 30% decline in the battery pack price. Similarly, in the
United States, a 15% decline in battery prices contributed to a 3% drop in the
average purchase price of electric SUVs in 2024. In contrast, in Germany, the
price of electric SUVs slightly increased in 2024, despite their battery pack prices
declining 20%. This suggests that the battery pack price is not the only factor
influencing EV prices: other component manufacturing costs, trim levels and
carmakers’ pricing strategies also play a significant role.

Price range distribution of available and announced car models in selected markets,
2024-2026

China Europe United States

100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
ICEV PHEV BEV BEV ICEV PHEV BEV BEV ICEV PHEV BEV BEV
Available Announ- Available Announ- Available Announ-
ced ced ced

Price range (thousands USD [2024]): <25 25-30 30-40 40-50 >50 Unknown

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: ICEV = internal combustion engine vehicle; PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; BEV = battery electric vehicle.
“Available” includes models sold in 2024 in selected markets. Germany, the United Kingdom and Türkiye are used as proxy
countries for available models in Europe. “Announced” only includes models with known release price and expected to be
launched by the end of 2026.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from S&P Global Mobility, EV Volumes and OEM announcements.

Availability of a wide range of affordable EV models will be key to unlocking mass-

market adoption. In 2024, there were fewer BEV models available than ICEV
models in the United States and Europe, and the range was skewed towards
higher-end models with higher prices. Conversely, in China, the price distribution
of available BEV models closely resembles that of ICEVs, with about 40% of
available electric models priced below USD 25 000 (against 45% for ICEV
models), and more than half below USD 30 000. In 2024, this price distribution
was reflected in sales, with the median price paid for a battery electric car standing
at around USD 24 000, about USD 700 less than for an ICE car. This trend
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 48
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

towards a larger share of more affordable models is expected to continue in the

short term, as 60% of announced models with a known price are expected to
launch below the USD 30 000 mark.

Contrasting trends were also seen in the affordability of plug-in hybrids. In China,
prices for medium PHEVs dropped 15% from 2023 to 2024, and SUV-type PHEV
prices fell 7% over the same period. However, in Germany, the average purchase
price of medium and SUV-type PHEVs grew more than 5% year-on-year. This was
partly driven by their average battery size growing, causing their battery pack
prices to increase by about 15%. In 2024, in Europe, only 1 of the around
130 PHEV models was priced under USD 40 000, compared with more than
40 BEV and 155 ICEV models marketed below this price tag. Similarly, in the
United States, the 4 cheapest PHEV models available were priced between
USD 30 000 and USD 40 000, while about 60 ICEV models were marketed below
this price range. The US and German markets contrasted markedly with that of
China, where nearly 40 PHEV models were available with a price tag below
USD 25 000, competing with more than 250 ICEV and 140 BEV models within the
same price range.

Price-competitive electric cars in China are driving rapid

electrification across all segments
In China, the rapid electrification of small cars has been underpinned by their
unrivalled affordability. In 2024, nearly all small battery electric car models in China
were priced lower than the average small ICE car, and the average purchase price
was about half that of the average small ICE car. This led to the almost complete
electrification – nearly 95% – of small car sales in China in 2024, up from a share
of 75% 3 years earlier. Nevertheless, the small car segment makes up only a small
share of the Chinese car market, accounting for less than 10% of sales in 2024.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 49
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

Electric car price premium compared to conventional models per segment (left),
powertrain sales shares (centre) and sales share of battery electric vehicles cheaper
than conventional equivalents (right) in China, 2021-2024
Share of BEV sales cheaper
EV price premium Sales shares than ICEV equivalent
0% 100% 100%
EV premium [%]

-10% 80% 80%

Small

-20% 60% 60%

-30% 40% 40%
-40%
20% 20%
-50%
0% 0%

50% 100% 100%

EV premium [%]

40%
80% 80%
30%
Medium

20% 60% 60%

10%
40% 40%
0%
-10% 20% 20%
-20%
0% 0%

80% 100% 100%

EV premium [%]

60% 80% 80%

40%
Large

60% 60%
20%
40% 40%
0%
-20% 20% 20%
-40% 0% 0%

80% 100% 100%

EV premium [%]

60% 80% 80%

SUV

40% 60% 60%

20% 40% 40%
0% 20% 20%
-20% 0% 0%

100% 100% 100%

EV premium [%]

80%
80% 80%
All segments

60%
40% 60% 60%
20%
40% 40%
0%
-20% 20% 20%
-40% 0% 0%
2021 2022 2023 2024
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2024

ICEV BEV PHEV EREV Segment sales share

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: EV= electric vehicle; ICEV = internal combustion engine vehicle; BEV = battery electric vehicle; PHEV = plug-in
hybrid electric vehicle; EREV = extended-range electric vehicle; SUV = sports utility vehicle. Price data is adjusted for
inflation. Price of electric cars in data has been increased by 10% to adjust for the registration tax exemption in China. The
share of battery electric cars cheaper than their conventional equivalent is calculated as the number of car sales priced
lower than the sales-weighted average price of the ICE car in their segment category.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from S&P Global Mobility, EV Volumes and Marklines.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 50
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

In 2024, BEVs also reached price parity with ICEVs in the SUV segment – the
most popular car segment in China, accounting for half of all car sales. More than
half of battery electric SUV sales were priced lower than an average ICE SUV.
Plug-in hybrid SUVs were also sold at cheaper price levels than ICEV models for
the third consecutive year, supporting their steady uptake in this vehicle segment.
While progress on affordability has supported the growing sales shares of BEVs
and PHEVs, adoption of EREVs seemed to be more a result of consumer
preferences rather than purchase price competitiveness. In 2024, the average
price premium of EREVs over ICEV models stood at 60%, marking slim progress
from 70% three years ago. Despite their higher purchase price, the market share
of EREVs within the SUV segment grew to reach 10% in 2024, suggesting that
this hybrid powertrain technology is appealing to wealthier consumers who are
less price sensitive and seek boosted range in high-end vehicle models.

In the medium car segment, which represents about one-third of total car sales in
China, BEVs were 20% more expensive than conventional equivalents in 2024,
down from 40% in 2021. PHEV prices also dropped. For the first time, the sales-
weighted average price of medium PHEVs in 2024 was 10% lower than
conventional models. As a result, PHEV sales in the segment more than doubled,
and more than one-third of medium car sales in China in 2024 were electric.

Electric car affordability improved in all car segments in China thanks to falling
battery pack prices, a high level of supply chain vertical integration and fierce
competition within the Chinese EV market. Overall, in 2024, close to two-thirds of
the battery electric cars sold in China were cheaper than their ICE equivalents, up
from half in 2021 and just 10% in 2018.

Affordability stagnates in Europe, but carmakers expand line-

ups with low-cost EVs amid CO2 standards shift
In Europe, carmakers’ pricing strategies and focus on high-profit-margin premium
models have led to stagnating battery electric car prices. In Germany, for example,
the average price premium for small battery electric cars remained almost
unchanged between 2021 and 2023, plateauing at over 50% more than equivalent
small ICE models. The price premium for small battery electric cars fell slightly in
2024 to around 45%. In contrast, the price premium for battery electric SUVs
increased to reach 20% in 2024, effectively reversing the small decrease seen
over the 2021-2023 period. The price premium of PHEVs compared to
conventional equivalents has grown consistently since 2022, reaching more than
30% for medium-size cars and 50% for SUV-type cars in 2024. This trend hindered
electric car adoption in Germany in 2024, especially when combined with the
phase-out of purchase subsidies in late 2023. In 2021, almost one-third of battery
electric SUVs sold in the country were cheaper than their average ICE equivalent,
but by 2024, this share had fallen to one-fifth.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 51
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

In other European countries, the affordability of electric cars saw little change. In
the United Kingdom, for instance, the average price premium of battery electric
SUVs made only slim progress, dropping to 30% in 2024 from 40% in 2021. The
pricing trend of plug-in hybrid SUVs was similar, with their price premium having
been stuck at around 45% for the last 3 years.

Electric car price premium compared to conventional models per segment (left),
powertrain sales shares (centre) and sales share of battery electric vehicles cheaper
than conventional equivalents (right) in Germany, 2021-2024

Share of BEV sales cheaper

EV price premium Sales shares than ICEV equivalent
60% 100% 100%
EV premium [%]

50%
80% 80%
40%
Small

60% 60%
30%
20% 40% 40%

10% 20% 20%

0%
0% 0%

35% 100% 100%

EV premium [%]

30%
80% 80%
25%
Medium

20% 60% 60%

15%
40% 40%
10%
5% 20% 20%
0%
0% 0%

60% 100% 100%

EV premium [%]

50%
80% 80%
40%
60% 60%
SUV

30%
40% 40%
20%

10% 20% 20%

0% 0% 0%
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2024

ICEV BEV PHEV Segment sales share

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: EV = electric vehicle; BEV = battery electric vehicle; ICEV = internal combustion engine vehicle; PHEV = plug-in
hybrid electric vehicle; SUV = sports utility vehicle. Price data is adjusted for inflation. The share of battery electric cars
cheaper than their conventional equivalents is calculated as the number of car sales priced lower than the sales-weighted
average price of the ICE car in their segment category.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from S&P Global Mobility, EV Volumes and Marklines.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 52
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

This lack of progress on affordability reflects the limited availability of cheap

electric car models across Europe. In 2024, while nearly one-quarter of available
ICE car models were priced below EUR 30 000, only around 5% of battery electric
models were. Models priced below EUR 25 000 are expected to be key enablers
of wider market adoption, but they accounted for only a slim share (3%) of
available battery electric models in Europe last year. However, the new phase of
the EU CO2 standards entering into force in 2025 is expected to prompt carmakers
to release more affordable electric models to boost their EV sales and comply with
their respective fleet-wide CO2 targets. So far, both European and foreign
carmakers have announced launches of battery electric models for the European
market priced at under EUR 25 000, including Renault, Volkswagen, Hyundai, and
BYD. Overall, nearly ten battery electric models priced at under EUR 25 000 are
expected to be released by the end of 2026.

Limited availability of affordable models hinders US electric car

sales growth
In 2024 in the United States, about one in five electric SUVs (including pick-up
trucks) was sold at a lower price than the average conventional SUV. This is
particularly significant given that SUVs account for three-quarters of total car sales
in the United States. Progress on battery electric car affordability has fluctuated in
recent years. In 2023, the average purchase price premium of battery electric
SUVs noticeably decreased to 25% from 50% in 2022, largely as a result of Tesla
repeatedly slashing prices in an attempt to maintain its market lead in the
United States. However, despite further price reductions to the Tesla Model Y SUV
in 2024, Tesla’s market share fell around 10% year-on-year. This decline
outweighed the impact of the late price cuts, leaving the average price premium
of battery electric SUVs in the United States unchanged from the previous year.

The contrast with conventional models is stark: in 2024, only 2 battery electric
models (3% of battery electric car models) were priced below USD 30 000,
compared to more than 50 ICE models (20% of available ICE models). In the short
term, Honda, Fisker and Volkswagen have all recently announced they will launch
“affordable” compact electric SUVs, bringing to market a handful of models under
the USD 30 000 mark. However, most of the BEV model releases expected by
2026 that have been announced with launch prices are in the premium car
category, with over 70% anticipated to have a purchase price of more than
USD 50 000.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 53
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

Electric car price premium compared to conventional models per segment (left),
powertrain sales shares (centre) and sales share of battery electric medium cars and
SUVs cheaper than conventional equivalents (right) in the United States, 2021-2024

Share of BEV sales cheaper

EV price premium Sales shares than ICEV equivalent

80% 100% 100%

EV premium [%]

60% 80% 80%

Medium

60% 60%
40%
40% 40%
20%
20% 20%
0%
0% 0%

60% 100% 100%

EV premium [%]

50% 80% 80%

40%
SUV

60% 60%
30%
40% 40%
20%
10% 20% 20%

0% 0% 0%
2021 2022 2023 2024
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2024

ICEV BEV PHEV Segment sales share

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: EV = electric vehicle; BEV = battery electric vehicle; ICEV = internal combustion engine vehicle; PHEV = plug-in
hybrid electric vehicle; SUV = sports utility vehicle. Price data is adjusted for inflation. The share of battery electric cars
cheaper than their conventional equivalent is calculated as the number of car sales priced lower than the sales-weighted
average price of the ICE car in their segment category.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from S&P Global Mobility, EV Volumes and Marklines.

The average purchase price of plug-in hybrid SUVs has increased over the past 3
years. In 2024, the price was almost 10% higher than that of battery electric
counterparts, and 35% higher than conventional SUV models. Fewer than 10% of
the more than 50 available PHEV models were priced below USD 40 000 while
70% were above USD 50 000. This high price premium, combined with the limited
availability of affordable models, remains a significant barrier to wider adoption.
As a result, PHEV sales stood at 2% of total SUV sales in 2024, as in 2023.

In emerging markets, affordable Chinese models are driving EV

adoption
In 2024, in most emerging EV markets, the price of the cheapest battery electric
car was lower than the average price of an ICE car. In some markets – such as
Indonesia, Thailand and Mexico – the cheapest battery electric car models even
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 54
Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

retailed at similar prices to the cheapest ICE models. Choosing an electric car in
these markets could carry little to no price premium.

In all of the five emerging markets assessed – Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico and
Thailand – electric models made by Chinese OEMs were, on average, cheaper
than the average electric car, helping to drive uptake. The cheapest Chinese
battery electric car was, in most cases, also the cheapest option on the market,
so much that in Thailand in 2024, the average price of a Chinese EV was lower
than the average price of a conventional car. In 2023 and 2024, more than four
out of every five battery electric cars sold in Thailand were imported from China,
bringing the average price of BEVs nearly in line with that of conventional cars.
On average, medium and SUV model BEVs were more than 20% cheaper than
their conventional equivalents, and the overall price premium of BEVs, across all
car segments, stood below 5%.

Average and cheapest battery electric car price values by powertrain in selected
emerging markets, 2024

70
Thousand USD (2024, MER)

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Cheapest

Cheapest

Cheapest

Cheapest

Cheapest
Average

Average

Average

Average

Average

Indonesia Thailand Mexico Brazil Türkiye

Southeast Asia Latin America Europe

ICEV BEV BEV (Chinese OEMs)

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: ICEV = internal combustion engine vehicle; BEV = battery electric vehicle; OEM = original equipment manufacturer.
Average price refers to the sales-weighted average price of cars per powertrain. The cheapest category shows the lowest
price found in data.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from S&P Global Mobility.

In Brazil, where Chinese electric car imports increased to reach 85% of the
country’s EV sales in 2024, up from about 60% in 2023, the price gap between
battery electric and ICE cars shrank from more than 100% to 25% over the same
period. In 2024, not only was the cheapest battery electric car model produced in
China by a Chinese OEM, but Chinese BEVs also retailed at less than half the
price of those produced by non-Chinese OEMs on average (most of which belong
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in the electric car industry

to larger car segments). The average price of PHEVs also fell in 2024. In
particular, plug-in hybrid SUVs – which accounted for nearly half of Brazil’s electric
car sales in 2024 – saw their price premium over ICE equivalents drop below 70%,
compared to a premium of more than 80% for battery electric SUVs. This
decreasing price gap boosted the adoption of PHEVs within the SUV segment,
whereas BEVs gained more traction in the small and medium car segments, where
their average price premium halved year-on-year to reach less than 40% in 2024.

In Indonesia, after import duties were waived under local investment

requirements, Chinese EV imports surged to reach two-thirds of the country’s EV
sales in 2024, up from about 10% in 2023. Like in other emerging markets,
Chinese battery electric car models became the most affordable options available,
with an average price over 60% lower than BEVs from non-Chinese OEMs. As a
result, the average price premium of BEVs dropped to around 50% in 2024, down
from being, on average, twice as expensive as conventional cars in 2023.

In Mexico, the average price premium of BEVs fell to 50% in 2024 from more than
100% in 2023, as the share of Chinese imports in EV sales grew to nearly two-
thirds. However, Chinese brands were not the only ones driving affordability. While
the cheapest BEV model available (Renault’s Kwid E-Tech Electric) was produced
in China, it was sold under a European brand.

In India, high import duties on EVs and the availability of locally made, affordable
electric models meant the share of Chinese imports in the country’s EV sales
remained below 15% in 2024. While the cheapest battery electric car model was
produced locally by a Chinese OEM (SAIC’s city car, the MG Comet EV, priced
under USD 8 000), the average price of imported Chinese BEVs was twice that of
those made by domestic manufacturers. In 2024, all BEV models manufactured
by Indian carmakers started below USD 20 000, while none of the imported
Chinese BEV models were priced under that threshold. Overall, the average price
gap between battery electric and ICE cars fell below 15% for small cars and 25%
for SUVs in 2024
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in other light-duty electric vehicles

3. Trends in other light-duty

electric vehicles

Electric two- and three-wheelers

Contrasting regional trends mean global sales of electric
two- and three-wheelers remain at around 15%
Two- and three-wheelers (2/3Ws) 1 remained the most electrified road transport
segment in 2024, with more than 9% of the global fleet now electric. The global
sales share of electric models remained at around 15% in 2024 with total electric
model sales reaching 10 million. The electric sales share stalled in 2024, mostly
due to the shrinking Chinese electric 2/3W market, although growth in other
regions was steady. China, India and Southeast Asia remain the world’s largest
2/3W markets, accounting for around 80% of 2024 global sales, with 2/3Ws
serving as the primary mode of private passenger transport in India and Southeast
Asia.

Electric 2/3Ws stand out as the most affordable and accessible entry point into
electric mobility. Unlike cars, many models do not rely on extensive charging
infrastructure, as removable batteries allow users to charge at home, and those
with private parking or garages can easily charge their electric 2/3Ws using
standard sockets. The removable batteries have also led to the growing
emergence of battery swapping stations for 2/3Ws, which can be particularly
useful for 2/3Ws that are used as taxis or for delivery services, where quick
recharging is highly valued. This – combined with lower operating costs when
compared to cars – means that electric 2/3Ws offer a promising solution for
reducing urban emissions and improving air quality in emerging markets and
developing economies, where 2/3Ws are widely used for daily transportation.

Another year of receding electric two-wheeler sales in

China masks steady growth elsewhere in Asia
In China, falling sales of electric 2Ws in 2024 were the product of an overall
decline in the 2W market, yet the country remains the world’s largest market for
electric 2Ws. Electric models have accounted for more than half of 2W sales since

1
In this report, “two-wheelers” refers to vehicles with a top speed of at least 25 km/hr that fit the L1 and L3 classes defined
by UNECE. This excludes micromobility options such as electric-assisted bicycles and low-speed electric scooters. The
definition of a three-wheeler is aligned with UNECE L2, L4 or L5 classes.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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 Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in other light-duty electric vehicles

2020, with sales totalling about 7 million in 2024. Sluggishness in China’s 2W

market reflects an increasing preference for cars for personal transport, and may
also be a sign that consumers are responding to tighter restrictions on 2W use in
major cities. The 2W market is shifting toward higher-value motorcycle models,
likely indicating a change in consumer profile. At the same time, the Chinese
government launched a trade-in programme for electric bicycles in 2024, boosting
their sales. Urban commuters, in particular, may be attracted by e-bikes as a
lower-cost alternative that enables access to bike lanes and areas where 2Ws are
banned.

As the Chinese market for electric 2Ws continues to decline, the country’s OEMs
are looking abroad for growth opportunities. China’s largest electric 2W
manufacturer, Yadea, broke ground on a USD 150 million new assembly plant in
Indonesia in 2024, which has a planned output of 3 million vehicles by 2028 (likely
to also include e-bikes). In recent years, Chinese OEMs have also established
manufacturing capacities in other large Southeast Asian electric 2W markets such
as Viet Nam, the Philippines and Thailand, making their way into the top five
electric 2W brands in each of these countries.

Electric two-wheeler sales and sales share by region, 2016-2024

New registrations Electric sales shares

14 70%
Millions

12 60%
10 50%
8 40%
6 30%
4 20%
2 10%
0 0%
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

2.0 20%
Millions

1.8 18%
1.6 16%
1.4 14%
1.2 12%
1.0 10%
0.8 8%
0.6 6%
0.4 4%
0.2 2%
0.0 0%
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
China India Viet Nam Other Asia Europe North America Global

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: “Other Asia” includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar,
Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, Singapore, Sri Lanka and Chinese Taipei. “Two-wheeler” refers to vehicles with a top speed of
at least 25 km/hr and which fit the L1 and L3 classes defined by UNECE.
Sources: IEA analysis based on country submissions and data from [Link] and [Link].
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in other light-duty electric vehicles

India’s increasingly dynamic electric 2W market hosted a total of 220 OEMs in

2024, up from 180 in 2023, although the 4 market leaders accounted for a
combined 80% of the 1.3 million electric 2Ws sold in the country in 2024 (6% of
the overall 2W market). While the upfront purchase price of electric 2Ws remains
higher on average than that of conventional 2Ws, increasing competition is
prompting OEMs to offer more affordable electric models. For example, the Indian
market leader, Ola, released its S1X entry model, equipped with a 2 kWh battery
and 6 kW peak power, with a sticker price of INR 70 000 (about USD 850) – lower
than the average price of the five best-selling ICE 2W models. Policy support is
also helping to bridge the affordability gap between electric and ICE 2W models,
with the new PM Electric Drive Revolution in Innovative Vehicle Enhancement (PM
E-DRIVE) policy continuing financial support formerly provided under both Faster
Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles (FAME)-II and Electric Mobility
Promotion Scheme measures. This provides purchase incentives for electric 2Ws
(offering purchase subsidies of up to INR 5 000/kWh for 2Ws fitted with lithium-ion
batteries), as well as for 3Ws and other emerging EV categories (specifically
excluding private cars), with a total budget of USD 1.3 billion. The scheme is
planned to operate until March 2026 to support the roll-out of about 2.5 million
electric 2Ws, up from 1 million targeted under the previous FAME-II policy. On the
manufacturing side, the 80 largest electric 2W makers in India accounted for a
combined production capacity of 10 million electric 2Ws in 2024, almost 8 times
the domestic sales that year. Capacity is expected to increase to 17 million electric
2Ws in the near term, if all OEM announcements come to fruition.

Southeast Asia made notable progress on 2W electrification in 2024, particularly

in Viet Nam, which recorded 250 000 sales (a sales share close to 10%); in
Indonesia, where there were about 105 000 sales; and in the Philippines, with
more than 25 000. Indonesia saw its electric 2W market almost double in size,
but the share of electric sales remained below 2%. Nevertheless, the trend
towards electrification in what is the world’s third-largest 2W market is likely to
continue given the strong policy support in place (in 2023, nearly USD 0.5 billion
was allocated to support the deployment of 800 000 electric 2Ws over the
following years), as well as the new manufacturing capacity being rolled out by
established Chinese OEMs.

Viet Nam’s 2W electrification success story has been underpinned by the

continued roll-out of increasingly affordable electric 2W models manufactured by
domestic champions like VinFast and Pega, and now also by Chinese OEMs. To
date, several electric models are sold at under VND 20 million (Vietnamese dong)
(USD 780) (such as VinFast’s Evo200 and Yadea’s Orla), making them price-
competitive with conventional alternatives. These affordable purchase prices are
partly a result of existing battery leasing options, which reduce the vehicle
purchase price and can cost consumers as little as VND 350 000 (under USD 14)
per month. They can also be easily integrated with battery swap programmes. The
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in other light-duty electric vehicles

increasing affordability of electric models, ongoing development of charging

infrastructure for models without removable batteries, and Viet Nam’s ambition to
fully electrify its road transport sector by 2050 is likely to drive further growth in
electric 2W sales in the coming years.

Sales of electric 2Ws in Africa grew nearly 40% year-on-year to reach 9 000
vehicles, marking a slim 0.5% sales share in the continent’s total 2W sales.
However, domestic OEMs have invested significantly in recent years to set up
domestic manufacturing facilities. For example, Spiro is set to break ground on an
assembly plant in Nigeria in 2025 with an expected annual output of 100 000
electric 2Ws, 100 times the capacity of its assembly plants in Togo and Benin.
Other electric 2W manufacturers, such as Roam in Kenya and Ampersand in
Rwanda, also recently announced investments to ramp up their capacity across
African countries. Beyond increasing manufacturing investments, asset financiers
like M-KOPA, Mogo, and Watu are helping consumers and small business owners
access electric motorcycles through flexible payment plans and lease-to-own
schemes.

Elsewhere, in Europe, the average electrification rate of 2W sales has decreased

to about 6%, despite the 2W market growing overall. With year-on-year sales
growing to more than 50 000 electric 2Ws, Türkiye has secured its position as the
leading market outside of Asia, followed by France and the Netherlands, despite
those markets stagnating in 2024.

India continues to drive most growth in the global

electric three-wheeler market
Despite the global three-wheeler (3W) market shrinking 5% from the previous
year, electric 3W sales grew more than 10% to surpass 1 million vehicles in 2024.
Electric 3W sales represented almost one-quarter of all 3W sales, up from one-
fifth in 2023. The market is highly concentrated, with China and India together
accounting for more than 90% of both electric and conventional 3W sales.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in other light-duty electric vehicles

Electric three-wheeler sales and sales share by region, 2016-2024

New registrations Electric sales shares

1.6 80%
Millions

1.4 70%
1.2 60%
1.0 50%
0.8 40%
0.6 30%
0.4 20%
0.2 10%
0.0 0%
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

China India Europe Global

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: The definition of a three-wheeler is aligned with : UNECE L2, L4 or L5 classes.
Sources: IEA analysis based on country submissions and data from [Link] and [Link].

Electrification of 3Ws in China has stagnated at less than 15% over the past
3 years. In 2023, India overtook China to become the world’s largest market for
electric 3Ws, and it maintained this position in 2024, with sales growing close to
20% year-on-year to reach nearly 700 000 vehicles. This translated into a record
57% electric sales share in 2024, 3% up on the previous year. This growing trend
looks set to continue thanks to policy support under the new PM E-DRIVE scheme,
which allocated budget in 2024 to support the roll-out of more than 300 000 electric
3Ws for commercial use – for which the total fleet (electric and ICE) was estimated
at more than 10 million vehicles in 2023.

Elsewhere, in Europe, the electric 3W sales share has grown steeply in the past
2 years, pushed up by growth in the Turkish market. In 2024, Türkiye accounted
for 60 000 electric 3Ws sold out of a total European 3W market of about 90 000.

Electric light commercial vehicles

China pushed up global electric light commercial vehicle
sales in 2024, representing 70% of global sales
Sales of electric light commercial vehicles (LCVs) increased by more than 40% in
2024 to exceed 600 000, with a share of 7%, up from 5% in 2023. China and
Europe remained the two largest markets for electric LCVs in 2024, but while
China saw growth of almost 90%, with sales reaching roughly 450 000, sales in
Europe declined by about 10% to less than 120 000. The United States emerged
as the third-largest market, taking the spot from Korea, with sales of more than
25 000 and strong year-on-year growth of 55%.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in other light-duty electric vehicles

Electric light commercial vehicle sales and sales shares, 2019-2024

700 70%
Sales (thousands)

600 60%

500 50%

400 40%

300 30%

200 20%

100 10%

0 0%
'20 '22 '24 '20 '22 '24 '20 '22 '24 '20 '22 '24 '20 '22 '24
World China Europe United States Korea

Electric LCV sales Electric car sales share (right) Electric LCV sales share (right)

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: LCV = light commercial vehicle, weighing less than 3.5 tonnes. In China, LCVs include small-sized buses, gasoline
light-duty trucks and mini trucks. To better align with IEA classifications, diesel light-duty trucks are considered as medium-
duty trucks (defined here as having a gross vehicle weight greater than 3.5 tonnes and less than 15 tonnes).
Sources: IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes, China Commercial Vehicle Dealers Association, DaaS, ACEA,
Marklines and Korean Automobile Manufacturer’ Association.

The continued sales growth in China has been supported by LCVs being eligible
for the vehicle purchase tax exemption for new energy vehicles that was put in
place in 2014. The full tax exemption has been extended through 2025, and a 50%
tax exemption will be available until the end of 2027. Preferential road rights
policies, charging discounts and charging subsidies are further supporting EV
adoption among commercial users.

In Europe, the electric sales shares declined in several important LCV markets,
such as Germany, Norway and France, or stalled, as in the case of Sweden.
However, in the United Kingdom – the largest market for electric LCVs in Europe
– sales continued to grow, reaching nearly 7%. As with cars, 2024 was the first
year of zero-emission van targets under the Vehicle Emissions Trading Scheme,
which will progressively require higher sales shares of zero-emission LCVs over
the coming decade.

Some small markets such as Czechia, Greece, Hungary and especially Romania
have seen notable increases, albeit starting from a very low base. Despite no new
incentives being introduced between 2023 and 2024 in these markets, the growth
suggests that there were some segments that could be easily electrified with
existing technology. In fact, the total cost of ownership of electric LCVs is already
equal to or below that of conventional alternatives for certain applications in
Europe. Nevertheless, in Germany – a more developed market – the decline in
sales may have been a result of the removal of incentives (which also affected
LCV applications that are harder to electrify based on current pricing or model
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in other light-duty electric vehicles

availability) and by the design of the EU CO₂ emission regulations for vans, which
gave the automotive industry little incentive to accelerate sales in 2024 before the
next phase taking effect in 2025.

Some European cities have promoted electric LCV adoption by establishing Low
Emissions Zones (LEZs), though there is no uniform European regulation, with
regulations being decided at the city level. London has the largest LEZ in the
world, which has favoured uptake. As of the beginning of 2025, LEZs can also be
found in Amsterdam and 14 other cities in the Netherlands, as well as in Brussels,
Ghent, and Stockholm. In the case of the Netherlands, the introduction of LEZs
from 2025, together with the exemption of vehicle tax for LCVs being removed for
ICE LCVs, led the sales share of electric LCVs to leap to more than 90% in the
first quarter of 2025, compared to less than 10% on average in 2024. The number
of LEZs in Europe grew significantly from 228 in 2019 to 320 in 2022, with more
expected to come online in 2025, further encouraging uptake of EVs and
improving air quality, while also potentially reducing traffic congestion.

In 2023, the sales share of electric LCVs in Korea was double the level of electric
passenger cars, continuing a trend that started in 2020. While the sales share of
electric LCVs remained higher than cars in 2024, both the volume of sales and
their sales share declined sharply. Despite strong initial adoption of electric LCVs
in Korea, partially due to the availability of free commercial licence plates for
electric models, drivers have since reported that real-world range and model
availability is insufficient for many commercial applications, which may be
influencing the slowdown. In 2023, the only electric LCVs on the market were the
Kia Bongo and the Hyundai Porter, both 1-tonne trucks with a battery capacity of
about 60 kWh. While these vehicles had initially been able to meet the needs of
some portions of the market, boosting sales, reaching new market segments has
proved difficult. In 2024, Hyundai launched the ST1 Cargo electric, which has a
larger battery (76 kWh) and an advertised range of around 300 km, but also has
a higher purchase price. In 2024, Korea introduced stricter performance
requirements for their subsidy scheme, which effectively restricted subsidies for
models with lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, typically used in Chinese-
manufactured models.

Across Europe, Korea and the United States, 2024 saw the introduction of around
ten new electric LCV models, the majority of which were launched in European
countries. Ford expanded its e-Transit line, which remains one of the world’s best-
sellers in the electric LCV category, offering a 30% increase in range and more
possible applications, such as refrigerated delivery. BYD targeted the last-mile
delivery market in Europe with the E-Vali, while Mercedes-Benz introduced the
eSprinter in the United States.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in other light-duty electric vehicles

Number of models of electric light commercial vehicles and sales-weighted average

battery size in Europe, the United States and Korea, 2019-2024
Number of models Average battery size
50 150

kWh
40 120

30 90

20 60

10 30

0 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Europe United States Korea

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: EV = electric vehicle; LCV = light commercial vehicle, where weight is less than 3.5 tonnes. Average battery refers
to sales-weighted average.
Sources: IEA analysis based on data from on EV Volumes.

Electric LCV fleets are becoming increasingly popular, particularly in the parcel
delivery sector, as companies strive to reduce their environmental impact and
operating costs. As part of its goal to reach 100 000 electric delivery vehicles by
2030, Amazon now has 20 000 vehicles through a 2019 agreement with Rivian,
which has tailored a vehicle to Amazon's needs, with the first vehicles delivered in
2021. In 2024, Rivian represented 40% of the US electric LCV market and its sales
are steadily growing.

Elsewhere, Ingka Group, the biggest IKEA franchisee, served 40% of home
deliveries with zero-emission vehicles, advancing towards its goal of more than
90% by 2028. Shanghai was the first city to reach this goal, achieving 100% EV-
based deliveries as early as 2019. In India, IKEA has partnered with EKA Mobility
to supply last-mile delivery with electric vans, while in Korea, DHL has partnered
with Kia to deploy the forthcoming Kia PV5 tailored to DHL needs from 2026.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles

4. Trends in heavy-duty electric

vehicles

Electric bus and truck sales

The electric bus market continued to expand, backed by
increasingly favourable economics

Electric bus sales grew by 30% in 2024

Global sales of electric buses reached more than 70 000 in 2024, driven by
renewed growth in China. Sales outside of China increased by just 5% in 2024,
although they have almost tripled compared to 2020. As electric bus sales have
increased in a range of countries, China’s share of global sales has fallen from
around 99% in 2017 to less than 70% in 2024. Although electric bus sales in China
generally declined from 2017 to 2023, the electric bus sales share has remained
relatively stable, hovering around 60%.

Electric bus sales and sales shares by region, 2016-2024

Sales Sales share
100 75%
Thousand

80 60%

60 45%

40 30%

20 15%

0 0%
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

China Europe United States India Latin America Rest of World Global

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Only medium- and large-sized electric buses are included; minibuses and passenger vans are treated as light
commercial vehicles.
Source: IEA analysis based on country submissions and data from EV Volumes, China Commercial Vehicle Dealers
Association, and DaaS for sales data for China.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles

In Europe, the world’s second-largest market for electric buses, sales increased
by almost 15% in 2024, bringing the sales share to more than 13%. Several
countries, including Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands and Norway, now have
electric bus sales shares of more than 40%. The United Kingdom continues to
have the largest number of sales in Europe, accounting for around 20% of the
region’s sales in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of over 40% and almost 2 000
electric buses sold in 2024. Italy follows, with almost 1 200 sales, and then
Germany with almost 900. Sales were predominantly for city buses, for which ten
European countries had battery electric sales shares above 80%, meaning almost
half of all new city buses were battery electric in 2024, up from just over 35% in
2023.

Uptake of electric buses in the United States has not been linear. Despite
averaging year-on-year growth of more than 70% between 2020 and 2024, electric
bus sales declined in 2024 following a peak the previous year. Around 40% fewer
electric buses were sold last year, in part due to supply chain issues. As a result,
India and Korea overtook the United States to become the second- and third-
largest national electric bus markets by sales volume in 2024, with more than
3 200 and 2 800 sales, respectively.

In Latin America, electric bus sales have risen from around 600 in 2020 to over
2 000 in 2024, which accounts for almost 40% of sales outside of China, Europe,
and the countries mentioned above. City buses are driving the transition, like in
Europe. In Mexico, close to 8% of all bus sales were electric in 2024, up from just
above 1% in 2023. There has also been impressive growth in Colombia, Chile,
Brazil, and other countries over the past few years.

Another notable trend is the decline in the share of PHEVs among electric buses.
In China, the share of PHEVs in total electric bus sales peaked in 2014 at around
60%, but fell to less than 1% in 2017 and close to 0% in 2024. Similarly, in the rest
of the world, there was a peak of around 60% of total electric bus sales in 2015,
but this fell sharply to 5% in 2017, and around 1% of the share in 2024. Almost all
electric bus sales are now battery electric, thanks in large part to declining battery
prices, greater model availability and improved charging technology, all of which
increase the share of use cases for which they are now practical.

Even as electric bus economics continue to improve, innovative

financing and incentives help drive deployment
Innovative financing models, such as those available in the United Kingdom, Brazil
(São Paulo), and Chile (Santiago), are also helping to drive up sales. In Santiago,
for example, buses have been leased to the operator as opposed to traditional
ownership, lowering the upfront cost, which can present a significant barrier to
deployment. The scheme benefitted from investment by the International Finance
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles

Corporation (IFC). A similar model is being explored for collaboration between the
IFC and Transvolt in India to help deploy 8 000 battery electric buses.

Italy, which now has the highest number of electric bus sales in the
European Union, more than doubled its stock from 2023 to 2024, with growth
fuelled by incentives totalling EUR 50 million made available in July 2022. As in
other countries, the majority of electric bus registrations are intended for urban
use. In Milan, for example, the municipal public transport operator, ATM, has
committed to having a 100% electric fleet by 2030.

In the United States, uptake has been greatest for school buses, which
represented around half of the electric bus stock in 2024. As of mid-June, the
Clean School Bus Program had funded approximately 8 100 electric school buses,
using approximately USD 3 billion of the USD 5 billion allocated for fiscal years
2022-2026 under the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law. Oakland, California, became
the first school district in the United States to have a fully electric fleet in 2024.
This contrasts starkly with the experience of New York City, which has a legally
binding target to fully electrify its fleet of 10 000 buses by 2035, yet has deployed
under 50 to date, partly due to difficulties in negotiating affordable purchases.

India has seen rapid growth in electric bus deployment since 2020, with stock
increasing from less than 3 000 to more than 11 500 at the end of 2024. A
combination of increasingly favourable economics, available incentives and
additional government support for charging infrastructure has enabled huge year-
on-year growth. Demand has been boosted by schemes such as the National
Electric Bus Programme, which targets deploying a further 40 000 electric buses
by 2027, helping to generate large orderbooks and use aggregated procurement
to drive down costs. This is further strengthened by new schemes such as PM E-
DRIVE, which could support sales of a further 14 028 electric buses, with
preference given to replacements of old public buses. The forthcoming Bharat
Urban Megabus Mission aims to introduce 100 000 electric buses to cities with a
population of over 1 million.

China’s electric bus sales strengthen, but Chinese OEMs are

also focusing on exports
China has the world’s highest stock share of electric buses, at 30%, compared to
2% across Europe (the second-largest electric bus fleet), and this share has been
steadily growing over the past decade. The country took an early lead in deploying
electric buses, with almost 70% of the more than 680 000 electric buses in the
country today having been deployed before 2020. The year 2024 saw an increase
in electric bus sales following several years of decline, potentially reflecting the
replacement of older electric buses in cities such as Shenzhen, which fully
electrified their bus fleets years ago. The introduction of a national-level city bus
scrappage scheme announced in January 2025 looks likely to further support the
uptick in sales seen in 2024.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles

Chinese manufacturers have also been increasingly looking to exports to exploit

their available manufacturing capacity. In 2024, more than 15 000 electric buses
were exported from China, over 25% more than in 2023. BYD and Foton are some
of China’s leading manufacturers of electric buses, and together with other
Chinese manufacturers supplied more than 80% of electric buses in Latin
America's stock. In early 2025, the city of Tashkent, Uzbekistan, signed a
purchase agreement for 2 000 BYD buses, 1 000 of which are set to be delivered
by the end of the year. Chinese OEM Yutong has also seen success
internationally, fulfilling orders in Greece, Italy and the United Kingdom, and
solidifying their position as Europe’s best-selling electric bus brand for the third
year in a row. Yutong has already supplied fleets to places as diverse as Chile,
Mexico, Norway and Uzbekistan since 2020. In Qatar, 70% of the public bus fleet
was electrified between 2021 and 2023 through a partnership with Yutong,
supporting the government’s aim for all of its public transport buses to be electric
by 2030. The Qatari government has also made plans for domestic production of
electric buses in partnership with Yutong, with the aim of establishing a production
hub for electric buses to serve international markets including Europe, the Middle
East and North Africa, as well as meeting growing local demand.

Global electric truck sales grew by almost 80% in 2024

New incentives help China strengthen its lead as overall

progress stalls in Europe and the United States
Sales of electric medium- and heavy-duty trucks grew for the third consecutive
year in 2024 to exceed 90 000 worldwide. Year-on-year growth was almost 80%,
a stark contrast to the decline in sales seen between 2018 and 2021. This spurt
was largely a result of Chinese sales more than doubling between 2023 and 2024
– more than 80% of all electric trucks sold globally in 2024 were sold in China.

Strong growth in China was spurred in part by a vehicle scrappage scheme

including purchase incentives, which is being renewed in 2025. Falling battery
prices and the introduction of tighter emission standards for trucks issued in July
2023 further accelerated the shift. Pressure on heavy industries to reduce
emissions is also translating into deployment of electric trucks, especially in
heavily industrialised areas such as Hebei Province, where the fleet of electric
trucks reached 30 000 vehicles.

In 2024, Europe saw more than 10 000 electric trucks sold for the second year in
a row, despite a lack of substantial incentives. Denmark, Germany, Italy, the
United Kingdom and others saw significant growth, though this was partially offset
by drops in electric truck sales in key markets such as France and the
Netherlands.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles

In the United States, electric truck sales in 2024 were similar to in 2023.
Nevertheless, the number of electric trucks sold in 2024 – over 1 700 – was more
than the cumulative number of electric trucks sold in the country between 2015
and 2022. Electric truck sales in the United States were supported by a tax credit
of up to USD 40 000, as well as project grants for vehicle purchases, charging
infrastructure and other expenses through the nearly USD 1 billion Clean Heavy-
Duty Vehicles Grant Program.

There were positive developments elsewhere in the world, such as in Brazil, where
almost 500 electric trucks were sold in 2024, and in Canada, with almost 2 000
sales for the second year in a row. In addition, Japan, South Africa and Thailand
saw their collective sales jump from around 130 to almost 900 between 2023 and
2024. India saw a decline in electric truck sales in 2024, but in September the PM
E-DRIVE scheme allocated a budget of USD 58 million for purchase incentives for
electric trucks over the next 2 years.

Electric truck sales and sales shares by region, 2016-2024

Sales Sales share
100 5%
Thousand

80 4%

60 3%

40 2%

20 1%

0 0%
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
China Europe United States Rest of World

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Trucks refers to medium- and heavy-duty freight trucks. In China, gasoline light-duty trucks and mini trucks are
categorised as LCVs, not trucks. Diesel light-duty trucks are classified as medium-duty trucks (defined here as having a
gross vehicle weight greater than 3.5 tonnes and less than 15 tonnes).
Sources: IEA analysis based on country submissions and data from EV Volumes, China EV100, DaaS and China
Commercial Vehicle Dealers Association for sales data for China.

Certain niches are quickly being electrified, including in the

heavy freight segment
Deployment of electric trucks varies by application, as some duty cycles are more
suited to electrification than others. Cycles with combinations of lower daily
mileage, lower speeds, and predictable routes are typically easier to electrify, as
seen at Manhattan Beer, which has begun to electrify its fleet. In California,
drayage – the transport of shipping containers over a short distance to their final
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles

destination – has lent itself to the adoption of electric trucks. Across the
United States, yard tractors have also proven to be an early adopter.

Similarly, in India, UltraTech Cement have ordered 100 electric trucks to

decarbonise a 400 km route between two of their operations, and orders for 180
electric trucks from Billion E-Mobility (including 45 with a gross vehicle weight of
55 tonnes) have spurred Ashok Leyland to increase their production capacity. In
China, successful battery swapping trials have supported an increase in electric
trucks in the concrete industry.

Efforts to switch to electric trucks for delivery services are also spurring uptake
and trials of new heavy truck models, where high mileages increase the potential
cost benefits of electrification. In California, DHL recently tested the prototype of
the Tesla Semi, which is expected to enter production in 2026, while in Germany,
DHL deployed two Mercedes eActros 300s. Similarly, Amazon signed an order for
more than 200 Mercedes eActros-600 electric trucks, which will be deployed in
the United Kingdom and Germany with the goal of decarbonising high-mileage
predictable routes, on which charging can be planned with a high degree of
certainty. These trends indicate that certain niches will become cost-competitive
in advance of the segment at large.

Electric heavy-duty models

The number of electric heavy-duty vehicle models
reached almost 800 in 2024
The number of electric heavy-duty models available worldwide has continued to
grow steadily, driven by increasing demand as battery costs have declined. The
market with the most models available remains China, with almost 450 – more
than half of which are electric buses. In the United States, over 140 models are
available, around half of which are medium-duty truck models, while buses
represent less than 30%. The prevalence of medium-duty models in the US market
could suggest that fleet operators are prioritising the electrification of lower-cost
vehicles that cover shorter routes before transitioning to long-haul applications. In
Europe, there are about 150 electric heavy-duty models available, with a more
even distribution across buses, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks.

In Europe, truck OEMs are expanding their electric heavy-duty truck line-ups for
regional-haul applications (<400 km), and improving performances for long-haul
trucks amid increasing electric sales. In 2024, Volvo launched its latest electric
truck, FH Electric, offering a range of 600 km, similar to the range offered by
Scania’s latest electric truck model. On the other hand, OEMs such as Renault
are targeting urban logistics.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles

Electric heavy-duty models are also becoming available in emerging markets.

BAIC Foton has an electric truck on the market in Argentina, and German truck
manufacturer TRATON has been producing their electric “e-Delivery” truck in
Brazil since 2021 under the Volkswagen Caminhões e Ônibus brand. In 2024,
BYD licensed Rêver to build electric buses and trucks based on BYD technologies
in Thailand.

Falling battery prices have been a key driver of growth in electric trucks. Since
2020, battery prices 1 for commercial vehicles have dropped by 30%, enabling
manufacturers to either extend vehicle range without increasing costs, or reduce
costs to narrow the price gap between diesel and electric trucks. Between 2020
and 2024, the price of medium-duty electric truck battery packs increased only
slightly, by almost 15%, despite battery size increasing by more than 60%. For
heavy-duty trucks, battery pack size increased by around 70% between 2020 and
2024, but falling battery prices meant the rise in battery pack costs per vehicle was
limited to less than 20% over the same period. Strategic partnerships between
battery and commercial vehicle manufacturers, such as the agreement between
CATL and FAW, seek to deliver even more affordable electric truck models
through a more integrated supply chain.

Electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicle model availability by original equipment

manufacturer headquarters, and battery size and cost, 2020-2024
Number of battery electric models available Battery pack size and cost

500 300 42

Thousand USD (2024, MER)

kWh/vehicle

450
250 35
400
350
200 28
300
250 150 21
200
150 100 14

100
50 7
50
0 0 0
2020 2024 2020 2024 2020 2024 2020 2024 2020 2024 2020 2024
China North Europe Rest of MD truck HD truck
America World
Bus MD truck HD truck Specialised truck Battery pack size
Battery pack cost (right)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: MD = medium-duty; HD = heavy-duty. Buses do not include minibuses. Battery pack cost is calculated as the sales-
weighted battery pack price per kWh for commercial vehicles multiplied by the sales-weighted battery pack size for the
vehicle segment.
Sources: IEA analysis based on the Drive to Zero ZETI tool (left). IEA analysis based on data from Bloomberg New Energy
Finance and EV Volumes (right).

1
Battery price refers to the sales-weighted average battery pack price for commercial vehicles, including light-commercial
and heavy-duty vehicles.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles

Truck total cost of ownership

For electric trucks to reach mass adoption, the total cost of owning an electric truck
must be able to compete with the cost of owning a traditional diesel truck.
Commercial vehicle owners and operators are typically more sensitive to the total
cost of ownership (TCO) than personal car buyers, though higher upfront purchase
costs can, of course, still present a hurdle.

The TCO of a vehicle depends on how the vehicle is used, and on the capital,
energy and labour costs, all of which vary by region. Long-haul, heavy-duty trucks
are often considered one of the hardest-to-electrify vehicle segments due to the
need to balance battery size, range and payload constraints with charging
requirements. In this section, we consider battery electric and fuel cell electric
heavy-duty (HD) trucks, both of which have zero tailpipe emissions, and compare
their TCO to diesel HD trucks in three major markets: China, the European Union
and the United States. 2 A daily driving distance of 500 km is assumed.

The upfront cost of a battery electric truck was two to

three times that of a diesel truck in 2024
While the TCO is important for overall business profitability, the upfront costs can
be particularly important to small business that may have less access to financing.
Small businesses make up the vast majority of hauliers in the United States (95%)
and Europe (90%), and more than half in China (less than 70%), 3 where the
haulage industry has been experiencing increasing consolidation.

Battery electric and fuel cell electric trucks are more expensive to purchase than
conventional diesel trucks. This is mostly due to the batteries used in BEVs and
the fuel cell stacks and hydrogen storage tanks in FCEVs being more expensive
than equivalent diesel ICEV technologies. Today, for a truck with an 800 kWh
battery (500 km range), the battery represents almost half of the upfront cost of a
battery electric truck, and this is expected to fall to around 35% in 2030. For an
FCEV, the battery, fuel cell system and hydrogen storage tank represent around
half of the upfront cost today and this is not expected to change in 2030.

The costs of batteries, fuel cells, and hydrogen storage tanks are expected to fall
thanks to greater economies of scale and manufacturing learnings, driving down
the capital costs of both BEVs and FCEVs. In the next 5 years, the purchase price
of a battery electric HD truck could fall by around 15-35%, depending on the

2
Please see Annex A for full assumptions and costs used to calculate TCO in this section.
3
Due to differences in reporting across the sources, in the case of the United States a small business is defined as having
up to 10 trucks, in Europe up to 9, whereas in China the equivalent number is 20 or under.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles

region. That of a fuel cell HD truck could fall 20-25%. However, both are expected
to remain more expensive than diesel ICE trucks at the point of purchase.

Purchase prices vary by region, and are lowest in China, primarily due to lower
manufacturing and battery costs. Although the absolute price difference between
battery electric and fuel cell electric trucks versus diesel equivalents is smallest in
China, the low cost of diesel trucks means it has the largest relative price
differences, at almost three (for battery electric) and four (for fuel cell electric)
times the equivalent diesel price. The United States has the highest prices overall,
while Europe enjoys both lower-cost diesel and zero-emissions trucks. Although
not a like-for-like comparison, real-world price data shows that the premium for a
zero-emissions truck was around USD 60 000 higher in the United States than in
Europe in 2024, demonstrating the difficulties the United States is facing in
achieving price competitiveness.

Estimated purchase price of hydrogen fuel cell, battery electric, and diesel heavy-duty
trucks in 2024 and 2030
500 000
2024 USD

450 000
400 000
350 000
300 000
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
BEV

BEV

BEV

BEV

BEV

BEV
ICEV

ICEV

ICEV

ICEV

ICEV

ICEV
FCEV

FCEV

FCEV

FCEV

FCEV

FCEV

2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030

China European Union United States
Finished chassis and cab Powertrain Hydrogen tank
Fuel cell Battery Manufacturing and assembly
Indirect costs and margins

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: ICEV = internal combustion engine vehicle; BEV = battery electric vehicle; FCEV = fuel cell electric vehicle. The
ICEV represents a diesel truck. The powertrain includes the engine for the diesel truck; the electric drive unit, electronics,
DC/DC converters, on-board charger, thermal management, and other balance of plant components for both the battery
electric truck and the fuel cell electric truck. Please see the Annex for a full list of sources, assumptions, and other inputs.

Increasing the utilisation of charging infrastructure can

significantly reduce fuel costs for battery electric trucks
Fuel and infrastructure costs can make up a large share of the TCO for a heavy-
duty truck. This is expected to remain the case into the future: over the next 5
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles

years, vehicle efficiencies will likely improve by just 2-5%, meaning the levelised
cost of fuel will remain a key component of TCO, especially for trucks with high
daily driving distances. However, battery electric trucks are about 55% more
energy-efficient than diesel heavy-duty trucks of the same size, while fuel cell
electric trucks are about 30% more efficient. As such, based on 2024 fuel prices,
the direct fuel costs associated with operating a battery electric heavy-duty truck
are almost 70% lower than the diesel equivalent in China, and about one-third
lower in the European Union and the United States.

However, unlike diesel, both BEVs and FCEVs require the buildout of new,
relatively expensive infrastructure, which adds to the fuel costs. Further, the
levelised cost of both EV chargers and hydrogen refuelling stations (HRSs) is
highly affected by utilisation rates. Overall, truck charging infrastructure could
reach even higher levels of utilisation than LDV chargers, given that logistics
operations are typically planned according to a predetermined schedule.
Increasing the utilisation rate of an EV charger from 5% to 30% lowers the
levelised infrastructure cost per kWh by about 80%, which would cut the overall
fuel cost per kilometre by half based on 2024 prices. Increasing utilisation of en
route chargers even further is possible, but may require solutions such as adaptive
route planning.

While a single HRS is more costly to build than a charging point, it can serve a
large number of trucks daily without the local grid impacts of high-powered
chargers. As the utilisation rises from 30% to 80%, the hydrogen cost premium for
infrastructure investment payment drops by nearly 60%, resulting in a 25% drop
in overall fuel cost per kilometre. However, even at higher utilisation rates, such
as for captive fleets (i.e. that are owned by the operators and return to depot) or
on busy public routes, the energy plus infrastructure cost per kilometre remains
about 5% higher than EV charging at low utilisation rates, and double the cost of
EV charging at high utilisation rates.

For every USD 1 million spent on infrastructure, a highly utilised 350 kW charger
covers more than twice as many vehicle kilometres as a highly utilised HRS. In
addition, HRSs may present a greater barrier to entry, as they cannot be easily
phased in gradually: an investment in HRSs must be accompanied by a large
investment in FCEVs to avoid prohibitive per-vehicle fuel and infrastructure costs.
On the other hand, chargers can be built modularly and more easily scaled as the
fleet grows, beginning with depot charging, with en route high-powered charging
following later to enable a greater share of journeys to be electrified.

Policies such as the EU Renewable Energy Directive, California’s Low Carbon

Fuel Standard, or China’s multiple cross-cutting policies promote reductions in
emissions associated with electricity and hydrogen production, but can also
impact the future fuel costs. A smaller share of electrolysis projects reached final
investment decision between October 2024 and October 2023 when compared to
the previous 12 months, potentially constraining the supply of low-emissions
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles

hydrogen, which is more expensive than the fossil-fuel derived hydrogen

predominantly used today. Meanwhile, low-cost solar and wind are driving down
electricity grid emissions and can reduce electricity prices over time. However,
further advances in electricity storage, smart charging and grid integration are
needed to compensate for the intermittency of wind and solar and increase the
benefits offered by electric trucks, requiring substantial investment.

World average levelised cost of diesel, electricity and hydrogen fuel for trucks,
including infrastructure, 2024
0.8
USD/km

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0
350 kW 1 000 kW 2 500 kg/day 4 000 kg/day
Diesel refuelling Electric vehicle charging station Hydrogen refuelling station
station
Fuel High infrastructure utilisation Low infrastructure utilisation

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: “Fuel” represents the average price a truck operator pays, including taxes for each fuel. For hydrogen, the cost is
the weighted levelised cost of production from all sources, meaning it is dominated by unabated steam methane reforming,
plus the cost of distribution to the refuelling station. For electricity and hydrogen, “Infrastructure cost” is the annualised cost
per unit of fuel/energy delivered, assuming a 10-year lifetime and 8% discount rate. For diesel, it is 2% of the fuel price.
The “low infrastructure utilisation” factors are 5% for the 350 kW charger and 30% for the hydrogen refuelling station; the
“high infrastructure utilisation” case assumes 30% utilisation of EV charger and 80% utilisation of the hydrogen refuelling
station, which results in a reduced the cost per unit of energy delivered by serving a greater number of vehicles. Please see
the Annex for a full list of sources, assumptions, and other inputs.
Sources: IEA analysis based on studies from the European Commission, the ICCT, and the US Department of Energy.

Battery electric trucks become competitive for long-haul

applications this decade in China and Europe
For a diesel HD truck that travels an average 500 km per day, the truck capital
cost represents only around 10% of the TCO across China, Europe and the
United States. That means that outside of relatively fixed costs such as driver
costs, insurance and maintenance, diesel fuel costs dominate the TCO. In
comparison, for an 800 kWh battery electric truck, the cost of the truck represents
about 20-25% of the TCO, demonstrating the potential trade-off between high
upfront costs and lower running costs. For battery electric trucks, energy costs
account for around 15-25% of the TCO, and for fuel cell trucks they account for
15-35%, across the three regions examined. For BEVs, more than 10% of the
TCO can be attributed to charging infrastructure in Europe and the United States,
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles

while in China, this share is reduced to around 3%, thanks to lower industrial land
costs as well as lower capital costs. The refuelling infrastructure for fuel cell trucks
has higher costs, representing nearly 10% of the TCO in China and more than
15% in Europe and the United States.

In terms of operations, regulations on truck driver rest periods can play a role in
determining the cost of the “dwell” time for recharging electric truck batteries. The
time associated with charging is often considered to be a barrier to the adoption
of battery electric trucks for long-haul applications as it can potentially disrupt
operations, especially in very long-haul applications. This consideration is factored
into the TCO calculation by adding the additional labour cost for the truck driver.
In the European Union, drivers are required to take a 45-minute break every
4.5 hours. In the United States, a driver is not permitted to drive for more than
8 hours without a 30-minute break. In China, drivers are required to take a break
every 4 hours, generally 20 minutes. As such, driving regulations can influence
the TCO, and making use of rest periods for charging can make battery electric
trucks more or less cost-competitive with diesel trucks. Based on a 500 km daily
route and current regulations, an extra 15 (European Union), 30 (United States),
and 40 minutes (China) would be needed in addition to the driver rest period in
order to charge the battery electric HD truck sufficiently. 4 The net cost associated
with dwell time represents a trade-off between the fuel and labour costs, and as
such may make more economic sense in China, where diesel is more expensive
than in other regions, and labour and electricity less expensive. In contrast, in the
United States, lower costs for diesel and higher labour and electricity costs can
make it more difficult to justify.

Charger power is also key in calculating this trade-off. A 350 kW charger, as used
in the base case, can provide 200 km of range in around 1 hour, while a 1 MW
charger could provide the same in about 20 minutes, potentially eliminating the
dwell cost. 5 Destination charging, particularly where drivers must wait for loading
and unloading, could also greatly reduce the dwell time.

The impact on payload is another consideration for many hauliers. In the

United States, 18% of trucks operate close to the general maximum gross vehicle
weight, with a further 7% operating above the limit, meaning they could be
impacted by the additional weight of either a fuel cell or battery electric truck
compared to diesel. Derogations exist in the United States (907 kg) and the
European Union (2 000 kg) to help offset the impact of the additional weight. A
proposal from the European Commission to further increase this to 4 000 kg could
eliminate the disadvantage relative to diesel trucks, but could also marginally

4
500 km daily distance is split evenly before and after the minimum rest periods of 20, 30, and 45 minutes in China, the
United States, and the European Union, respectively, based on the driver’s rest regulations for each country/region, after
which drivers, if required, continue to use the 350 kW charger to provide sufficient range to perform the same daily mileage
day after day, including for overnight depot charging, based on 2024 fuel economy values and minimum and maximum
battery states of charge of 20% and 80%.
5
Assuming 1.6 kWh/km fuel economy, and considering that this is below the length of the shortest minimum rest period.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles

increase road maintenance costs. 6 In China, industry stakeholders have also

mooted increasing the weight limits as a means of making alternatively fuelled
vehicles more competitive. These potential impacts are considered in the
sensitivity case of the TCO.

Total cost of ownership for battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks in
2024 and 2030

2.7
2024 USD/km

2.4

2.1

1.8

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.0
2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030
United States European Union China United States European Union China
Battery electric vehicle Fuel cell electric vehicle

Truck Fuel Infrastructure Dwell cost Driver costs Other Diesel TCO Sensitivity

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: TCO = total cost of ownership. “Truck” refers to the cost of the truck including financing over 5 years at 5% interest
and the residual value in year 5. “Infrastructure” is the levelised contribution to the cost of the EV charging or hydrogen
refuelling station. “Driver costs” is the cost of employing a truck driver during normal working hours and does not include
“dwell cost”, which is the additional cost incurred when a driver must continue charging beyond their rest period. “Other”
costs include insurance and maintenance. Cost projections are based on the 2024 Global Energy and Climate Model
Stated Policies Scenario, as published in the World Energy Outlook 2024 report. Please see the Annex for a full list of
sources, assumptions, and other inputs.
Sources: IEA analysis based on a studies from Ricardo, US Department of Energy, ICCT, the European Commission.

In China, the TCO of battery electric HD trucks is already lower than that of diesel
trucks in a number of applications. This reflects the lower cost of EV batteries in
China, as well as the gap in fuel costs, as electricity already costs 65% less than
diesel per kilometre. As such, energy costs for battery electric trucks are over 50%
lower per kilometre compared to diesel trucks. Fuel cell trucks remained around
35% more expensive than diesel trucks in China in 2024, largely because of the
higher infrastructure and fuel costs for hydrogen.

In the United States, higher electricity and infrastructure costs than Europe or
China mean that the TCO of a diesel truck is almost 20% cheaper than that of a

6
A full table of maximum gross vehicle weights, estimated unladen vehicle weights, assumptions, and the resulting “payload
penalties” is included in the Annex.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles

battery electric truck, though higher charger utilisation rates could reverse this by
2030. Compared to the European Union, US regulations on driver rest periods and
maximum gross vehicle weight further hamper the uptake of zero-emissions trucks.
However, in the coming years, the TCO of battery and fuel cell electric trucks is
expected to fall due to improvements in infrastructure utilisation and costs, as well
as further cost reductions for batteries and fuel cells. In contrast, diesel electric
trucks are expected to become more expensive due to more stringent pollutant
emissions regulation.

In all three markets, fuel cell trucks remain more expensive than battery electric
trucks up to 2030, while continued development of high-powered charging –
especially megawatt charging – reduces or eliminates the refuelling time
advantage offered by FCEVs compared to BEVs. Increased utilisation of HRSs
could result in further reductions to the TCO of fuel cell electric trucks, but battery
electric trucks will remain cheaper to operate. For fuel cell electric trucks to
become more competitive, substantial reductions in the capital costs of the truck
and infrastructure, as well as lower fuel costs, will be necessary.

In 2030, the TCO of battery electric trucks is more competitive than diesel trucks
in both China and the European Union. The gap also narrows substantially in the
United States, achieving parity around 2030. Incentives such as grants towards
the purchase of trucks, chargers, or HRSs, or differentiated taxes and charges
could bring this date even closer, or indeed allow TCO parity to be achieved today
in applications particularly suited to electrification.

Total cost of ownership for diesel, battery electric and fuel cell heavy-duty trucks,
2024-2030
United States European Union China
180
100 = 2024 United States diesel

150

120

90

60

30
2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030

ICEV BEV FCEV Base case

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: ICEV = internal combustion engine vehicle; BEV = battery electric vehicle; FCEV = fuel cell electric vehicle. The
ICEV is a diesel truck. The total cost of ownership is indexed to the United States 2024 value of diesel heavy-duty trucks.
Includes vehicle cost, labour, financing, fuel (including infrastructure costs), maintenance, insurance and residual value.
Excludes taxes, charges not included in fuel costs, and any subsidies or incentives. Cost projections are based on the 2024
Global Energy and Climate Model Stated Policies Scenario, as published in the World Energy Outlook 2024 report. Please
see the Annex for a full list of inputs and assumptions including the values that define the upper and lower ranges.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles

Sales of fuel cell trucks and buses outpaced sales of fuel cell cars in 2024
In 2024, the stock of fuel cell vehicles grew to over 100 000, 15% more than the
year before. In comparison, the stock of EVs exceeded 60 million (excluding 2/3Ws)
at the end of 2024, about 600 times the number of FCEVs. About 70% of the FCEVs
on the road are cars, though this share has fallen since the end of 2023 (75%). Fuel
cell trucks experienced higher growth in 2024 than fuel cell cars or buses, with the
stock increasing by more than 40% compared to 2023.

Fuel cell electric vehicle stock by segment and region, 2019-2024

By segment By region
110
Thousand vehicles

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Korea China United States
Cars Trucks Buses Vans
Japan Europe Rest of World

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Sources: IEA analysis based on data from the Advanced Fuel Cells Technology Collaboration Programme, EV Volumes,
Toyota, California Fuel Cell Partnership.

Growth in fuel cell car sales has slowed in recent years, with just 5 000 sold
worldwide in 2024, compared to the peak of more than 16 000 in 2021. This
slowdown is particularly acute in the United States and Korea – the two countries
with the largest stocks of fuel cell cars. In California, where the majority of US fuel
cell cars are sold, only around 600 new fuel cell cars were registered in 2024 – the
lowest number since 2015. In Korea, almost 3 000 fuel cell cars were sold in 2024,
about 35% less than in 2023 and 70% less than in 2022. Only a handful of OEMs
produced fuel cell cars in 2024.
In contrast, the global stock of fuel cell buses grew by almost 20% in 2024. China
continues to have the most fuel cell buses, accounting for three-quarters of the
global stock. The number of fuel cell buses grew strongly in Korea in 2024 to reach
a stock of 1 000, about 10% of the global total.
Unlike Korea, the United States and Japan – each of which has traditionally focused
more on fuel cell car deployment than on any other segment – over 70% of the
FCEV stock in China is commercial vehicles (including LCVs and heavy trucks). In
China, cars make up only around 3% of the total fuel cell vehicle fleet, while in the
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles

United States and Korea they account for up to 97%. In 2024, the stock of fuel cell
trucks in China increased 40% compared to 2023, reaching almost 15 000 vehicles,
about 5 times the amount at the end of 2020. In addition, the stock of fuel cell LCVs
in China reached more than 5 000 by the end of 2024, nearly double that of the
previous year. Almost 95% of the world’s fuel cell commercial vehicles are in China.
Around 50 fuel cell commercial vehicle models were available worldwide in 2024.
Over 60% of these were heavy-duty truck models, coming from 20 different
manufacturers. However, Nikola, one of the pioneers of heavy-duty fuel cell trucks,
filed for bankruptcy in February 2025, despite selling 200 vehicles in 2024 and
securing orders for 100 more meant to be delivered in 2025.
To support the growing number of FCEVs, countries have supported the buildout of
hydrogen refuelling stations (HRSs). The number of operational stations reached
around 1 300 worldwide at the end of 2024, 15% more than at the end of 2023. The
largest growth occurred in China, where the number of HRSs increased 30% in
2024 to reach more than 500. In Europe, the number of stations increased 15% to
over 300 by the end of 2024, despite some closures in countries such as Denmark
and the United Kingdom. The United States and Korea have also seen the number
of available HRSs fluctuate over the past year or so, as hydrogen supply and station
reliability issues have led to temporary and permanent closures. The number of
operational HRSs in the United States increased in 2024, but remains below the
number available between 2017 and 2022.

Number of hydrogen refuelling stations by region and ratio of fuel cell electric
vehicle stock to number of stations, 2020-2024
Number of hydrogen refuelling stations Ratio of FCEV stock to number of
hydrogen refuelling stations
1 600 400

1 200 300

800 200

400 100

0 0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
China Europe Korea Japan United States Other Global

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: FCEV = fuel cell electric vehicle.
Sources: IEA analysis based on data from the Advanced Fuel Cells Technology Collaboration Programme, EAFO, US
Alternative Fuels Data Center.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles

The number of FCEVs per HRS is significantly higher in the United States and
Korea than in other regions. The global average number of FCEVs per HRS has
remained at under 80 over the past 5 years, while in the United States this ratio
exceeded 300 in 2023 and 2024 and has been close to 200 in Korea since 2020.
For further information on the deployment status of FCEVs and other hydrogen-
based technologies, see the IEA Global Hydrogen Review report series.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Outlook for electric mobility

5. Outlook for electric mobility

Overview
In this part of the report, we focus on the outlook for electric mobility in road
transport over the period to 2030. A scenario-based approach is used to explore
the prospects for electric mobility, based on recent market trends, policy drivers
and technology developments.

The purpose of scenario projections is to assess a plausible future for global

electric vehicle (EV) markets and the potential implications. The scenario
projections are not intended as predictions about the future. Rather, they aim to
provide insights to inform decision-making by governments, companies and other
stakeholders about the future of EVs.

In particular, the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) reflects the current policy
landscape, taking into account existing policies and measures, as well as those
that are under development. It includes current EV-related policies and
announcements, regulations and investments, as well as market trends based on
the expected impacts of technology developments, announced deployments and
plans from industry stakeholders. The STEPS aims to hold up a mirror to the plans
of policy makers and illustrate their consequences.

The projections for EV markets in this year’s Global EV Outlook (GEVO-25) are
limited to 2030 in the STEPS. As the IEA highlighted in its 2024 edition of Energy
Technology Perspectives, energy, industrial and trade policies are increasingly
interwoven and there are challenges and trade-offs between these key areas of
public policy. The way these interactions play out for electric mobility over the
longer term will therefore be assessed holistically in the context of the scenarios
of the entire global energy system that the IEA will develop later in the year using
its Global Energy and Climate Model (GEC-M). Key uncertainties for EV markets
for the medium-term – such as those related to the evolution of trade and industrial
policy, downside risks to the economic outlook and the impact of different levels
of oil prices – are, however, presented in this chapter of the report.

The projections in the STEPS in GEVO-2025 consider historical market data and
stated policies up until the end of February 2025. These scenario projections
incorporate GDP assumptions from the International Monetary Fund and
population assumptions from the United Nations, as described in the 2024 GEC-M
documentation.
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EV deployment is projected by road transport mode and by region. For further

details on EV projections and impacts, refer to the IEA’s online Global EV Data
Explorer, which is updated with each edition of the Global EV Outlook.

Vehicle outlook by mode

The global electric vehicle fleet grows fourfold to 2030
under stated policies
By 2030, the fleet of EVs across all modes except 2/3Ws reaches 250 million in
the STEPS – four times as many EVs as there were at the end of 2024. More than
90% are electric cars, which is similar to the share in 2024. In this scenario, the
stock of EVs (excluding 2/3Ws) increases at an average rate of about 25% per
year, which is about half the annual growth observed from 2018-2024.

In 2024, the stock of electric 2/3Ws was higher than that of all other EVs combined.
By 2030, however, the stock of electric cars overtakes that of electric 2/3Ws,
despite the latter more than doubling to reach around 170 million in 2030 in the
STEPS. As a result, EVs represent about 15% of all vehicles on the road (including
2/3Ws) in 2030 in this scenario. The share of global EV stock in China decreases
from over 70% in 2024 to around 55% in 2030 in the STEPS as adoption in other
markets grows.

Electric vehicle stock by mode in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2024-2030

Two/three-wheelers Other vehicles
300
Million vehicles

250

200

150

100

50

0
2024 2027 2030 2024 2027 2030
2/3W - BEV PLDV - BEV PLDV - PHEV LCV - BEV LCV - PHEV
Bus - BEV Bus - PHEV Truck - BEV Truck - PHEV
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: 2/3W = two/three-wheeler; PLDV = passenger light-duty vehicle; LCV = light commercial vehicle; BEV = battery
electric vehicle; PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. There are no plug-in hybrid electric two/three-wheelers.

In 2024, the EV sales share was higher for light-duty vehicles (cars and vans) than
2/3Ws, in a change to the trend prior to 2023. In 2030, the EV sales share for both
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Outlook for electric mobility

light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and 2/3Ws reaches around 40% in the STEPS. In terms
of stock shares, 2/3Ws remain the most electrified vehicle segment in 2030 in the
STEPS, with around one in six 2/3Ws being electric compared to one in seven
LDVs.

Despite electric buses and electric LDVs having about the same stock share in
2024, the sales share of electric buses grows more slowly, reaching less than 20%
globally in 2030 in the STEPS. As a result, slightly more than 10% of the global
bus stock is electric in 2030 in the STEPS.

Trucks remain the slowest mode to electrify but make some progress thanks to
HDV emissions standards and improving economics. In 2030, electric truck sales
reach around 13% globally in the STEPS, though only 3% of the truck stock is
electric at that point.

Electric vehicle sales and stock share by mode in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2024
and 2030
Sales shares Stock shares
50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
2/3W LDV Bus Truck 2/3W LDV Bus Truck

2024 2030
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: 2/3W = two/three-wheeler; LDV = light-duty vehicle.

Economic and policy uncertainties could impact car

markets and the global outlook for EVs
The recent surge in trade policies and tariffs may affect the price and resulting
sales of EVs – especially electric cars – in several markets over the coming years.
In particular, in March 2025 the United States announced an additional 25% tariff
applicable to all automobiles, including electric cars, and to certain components.
In 2024, 40% of electric cars sold in the United States (over 600 000) were
imported, with over 10% of them coming from Europe and slightly less than 10%
each coming from Mexico, Japan and Korea. Conventional car sales are more
exposed, with over half of all conventional cars sold in the United States in 2024
having been imported. Conventional car imports generally come from the same
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Outlook for electric mobility

countries as EVs, although there is a much higher reliance on Mexico and lower
reliance on Europe. As a result, the impact of tariffs on the sales share of electric
cars in the United States may be relatively small compared to the impact of
potential changes in demand-side policies (such as fuel economy standards and
tax incentives), some of which are already considered as part of the STEPS
outlook.

The impact of tariffs might be more pronounced for EV batteries, their components
and raw materials, all of which are highly traded across the world because supply
is significantly more concentrated than demand. China produces the cheapest EV
batteries, and was responsible for nearly 80% of global EV battery cell production
in 2024. China’s share of production was even higher for battery components, for
which the country represented almost 85% of global cathode active material and
over 90% of the anode active material production. A global shift towards higher
tariffs could put upward pressure on battery prices, counteracting some of the
significant battery price declines that have occurred since 2015. For example, a
25% tariff would override the 20% average battery price declines from the past
year. However, countries across the world are simultaneously developing and
improving the competitiveness of their local battery manufacturing industries,
which is expected to contribute to narrowing regional cost gaps.

Emerging trade tensions also have implications for the economic outlook, which
may create additional uncertainty for the EV outlook. In April 2025, the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) released revised GDP projections, which show
2.8% growth globally in 2025 and 3% growth in 2026, as compared to 3.3% in both
years in their January 2025 projections. The revisions to GDP growth were most
pronounced in North America, with projected 2025 growth for the United States
falling from 2.7% previously to 1.8% in the April 2025 update. The IMF now
projects in its central scenario that in the United States and China, two of the
largest EV markets in the world, GDP growth in 2025 will be one percentage point
lower than in 2024. By 2027, the IMF expects global GDP growth to return back
to levels previously projected, though for advanced economies as a whole, annual
GDP growth projections remain lower through 2029 compared to the IMF’s
October 2024 publication.

Lower GDP growth could add pressure on already-strained government budgets,

which, in turn, could lead to governments downscaling or terminating incentive
schemes for EVs ahead of schedule. While direct subsidies are already quite small
in most major markets, indirect subsidies, such as those related to company cars,
could be affected. Similarly, budgets allocated to the deployment of charging
infrastructure at different administrative levels (from national to local levels of
government) could be reduced. While all these factors could slow down the uptake
of EVs, policy responses can also be developed in a way that supports EV sales,
as was done in European countries in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.
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Lower economic growth and the corresponding effects on the purchasing power
of consumers could slow down sales of new vehicles across all powertrain types,
thereby potentially counterbalancing the impact on EV sales shares. Evidence
shows that an economic slowdown can affect car sales. For example, pronounced
and abrupt economic crises have led to double digit declines in car sales in the
past, for example in the United States between 2007 and 2009 (GDP -2.5%, car
sales -37%), and in Italy between 2011 and 2013 (GDP -5%, car sales -25%).
More modest and gradual economic slowdowns can also have an effect, such as
the slowdown in China between 2017 and 2019 (+6.2 % compared to a ten-year
average of over +8%) that led to the first decline in car sales recorded in decades,
of -12% over 2 years.

The extent to which car markets – and, as part of that, electric car sales – might
be affected by a sluggish economic outlook is still uncertain. The Chinese market
will be key to watch: it is the largest single car market in the world, and it drives
the outlook for global electric car sales in the medium term, accounting for more
than half of global electric car sales through 2030 in the STEPS. In China, electric
cars are already price competitive with conventional cars and so there is little
reason to believe that electric car sales would be more affected by an economic
slowdown than conventional cars. Further, China’s extension of its vehicle trade-
in policy may also contribute to keeping overall car sales strong. Even if car sales
volumes in China are lower than is projected in the STEPS, electric car sales
shares are likely to remain relatively robust.

Finally, changes in energy prices can also affect the adoption of EVs. Weak
demand prospects have led to a drop in global oil prices from an average of around
USD 80 per barrel in 2024 to below USD 60 per barrel at one point in April 2025.
Lower oil prices, if sustained, could translate into lower retail prices for gasoline
and diesel, thus reducing the economic incentive to purchase EVs, all else being
equal. The impact of such a drop is likely to vary across regions: it will be more
moderate in regions with high fuel taxation (such as the European Union), and
more pronounced in regions with lower fuel taxation, such as the United States
and China. Nonetheless, oil prices would need to be extremely low to completely
offset the savings offered by the lower running costs of EVs.

Taking oil prices around USD 40 per barrel as an illustrative example, there are
significant savings to be made in all major markets from running a battery electric
car if it is charged at home. In China, even at such a low oil price, battery electric
cars remain cheaper to run when charged at public fast chargers due to a
combination of low electricity prices and high charging infrastructure utilisation
rates. In the United States, the vast majority of electric car owners have access to
home charging, but public fast charging can be expensive compared to gasoline.
In the European Union, most EV owners also have access to home chargers,
though to a lesser extent. Low oil prices could therefore undermine the economic
case for EVs for drivers without access to home charging depending on the speed
and thus cost of public charging.
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Electric car running cost savings compared to an internal combustion engine car for a
range of illustrative oil prices, 2024
China United States European Union
0.10
USD/km

0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
40 60 80 40 60 80 40 60 80
USD/bbl USD/bbl USD/bbl
Home charging Public fast charging
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: bbl = barrel. Negative savings indicate it costs more to run a battery electric car than an internal combustion engine
car. Average on-road fuel consumption values in each region is assumed.

Vehicle outlook by region

Electric vehicle sales share by mode and region in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2030

Light-duty Heavy-duty

China China

Europe Europe

United States United States

Japan Japan

India India

Southeast Asia Southeast Asia

Latin America Latin America

RoW RoW

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

BEV PHEV

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: BEV = battery electric vehicle; PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; RoW = Rest of World. Light-duty refers to
passenger light-duty vehicles and light commercial vehicles. Heavy-duty refers to buses, medium-duty and heavy-duty
trucks. Regional projected EV sales and sales shares data can be explored in the interactive Global EV Data Explorer.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Outlook for electric mobility

Market momentum in China sees electric cars reach a

sales share of around 80% by the end of the decade
In the second half of 2024, China achieved the milestone of an electric car sales
share of more than 50%, partly thanks to the cost competitiveness of EVs. For the
past few years, over half of the electric cars sold in China have been cheaper than
ICE cars of the same size, and as battery prices continue to fall, this trend is likely
to continue.

Based on stated policies, the share of electric cars and vans in China is expected
to reach around 80% of total sales in 2030, backed by continuing policy support
and progress on affordability. China has already exceeded the official government
target of reaching a sales share of 45% of new energy vehicles (NEV) among new
cars by 2027, underscoring the strong market dynamics behind the shift to
electromobility. Trade-in grants that were due to expire at the end of 2024 have
been extended to 2025, and the NEV exemption from vehicle purchase tax has
also been extended until the end of 2027, further supporting uptake of EVs in the
short term. In addition, government plans to enhance charging infrastructure over
the period to 2030 aim to keep pace with EV uptake by promoting the construction
of charging stations in residential areas, as well as in parking spaces in
enterprises, industrial parks and government buildings.

Policy action to restrict ICE 2/3Ws in several cities over the past decade has driven
high adoption rates of electric 2/3Ws, with more than 30% of 2/3Ws now electric.
In the STEPS, the share of electric 2/3Ws on the road reaches nearly 50% by
2030, driven by the continued momentum of electromobility in China and a further
decline in battery costs.

This growing trend also extends to buses, especially in cities, where nearly all new
buses are now electric. However, the electric market share of coaches for intercity
transport was below 10% in 2024. By 2030 in the STEPS, the sales share of
electric buses reaches almost 75% across all bus segments, up from less than
two-thirds today.

China currently accounts for more than 80% of electric medium- and heavy-duty
truck sales worldwide, and the sales share in the country increased to more than
4% in 2024, from 2% in 2023. In some months, the sales share of battery-electric
heavy trucks reached a new high of almost 15%, as seen in late June. Truck
manufacturers are making efforts to reduce costs, such as by adopting the less
costly lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery chemistry. In addition, policy support
for HDV charging infrastructure and the increasing availability of battery-swap-
capable vehicles could further accelerate electrification in this segment. Although
the upfront cost is higher today compared to diesel powertrains, the annual
savings from significantly lower fuel costs mean that electric medium- and heavy-
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freight trucks become a cost-competitive option in many applications in the short-

term (see Truck total cost of ownership in Section 4). By 2030, the sales share of
electric trucks exceeds 30% in the STEPS.

Given China's strong position in the shift towards electromobility, the sales share
of EVs across all vehicle types (excluding 2/3Ws) reaches close to 80% by 2030
in the STEPS, well on track with what is needed for its target of reaching climate
neutrality in 2060 and supporting efforts to reduce air pollution.

European policy environment continues to promote EVs

while offering some flexibility in the short term
Electric car sales stagnated in Europe in 2024, due to a mix of factors including
reduced availability of purchase subsidies and a lack of affordable mass-market
EV models in OEMs line-ups, as well as sluggish car markets in general.
Nonetheless, the policy environment in Europe is one of the strongest in terms of
support for EVs, which could encourage strong growth in electric LDV sales over
the remainder of this decade. OEMs are beginning to introduce more competitively
priced models to comply with the new phase of EU CO2 standards, which entered
into force in 2025.

The 2025-2029 EU fleet-wide CO2 targets that were originally proposed represent
a 15% emissions reduction compared to a 2021 baseline. The stringency of the
standard is further bolstered by two changes in the way CO2 emissions are
calculated starting from 2025. First, the utility factor (the share of distance driven
in electric mode only) of new PHEV models, which is used to calculate their official
CO2 emission values, decreases, meaning PHEV sales are now less effective in
helping OEMs reach target compliance. Second, the revised calculation of CO2
emission targets will be more favourable to smaller, lighter OEM fleets, potentially
increasing the challenge for manufacturers of heavier models.

As a response to concerns that compliance would be difficult for some European

manufacturers, the European Commission recently published an Industrial Action
Plan for the European automotive sector, which announced a proposal to offer
flexibilities in meeting the 2025 CO2 standards for cars and vans. This allows
OEMs to reach target compliance by averaging their emissions over the period
2025-27, rather than needing to reach the target by the end of 2025. Despite giving
more leeway to carmakers to fall in line with their CO2 targets, the Action Plan has
reaffirmed the overall impetus towards the 2030 and 2035 targets. It was also
announced that the review of the 2035 targets would be sped up, with full
technology neutrality as a core principle, though the outcome and thus impact on
EV shares remains to be seen.
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The European Union is also exploring measures to accelerate the adoption of

zero-emission vehicles in corporate fleets, which currently account for around 60%
of new car sales. Policies to support EV uptake in EU member states include
national-level measures such as tax credits for EV company cars in countries
including Belgium, or France’s "social leasing” schemes for low-income
households, which will be rerun in 2025. When considered alongside the zero
emission vehicle mandate in the United Kingdom, stated policies drive the sales
share of electric cars and vans in Europe to nearly 60% by 2030 in the STEPS,
up from less than 20% today.

For buses and medium- and heavy-duty trucks, the EU HDV CO2 standards serve
as the key lever for further electrification. Policy momentum is particularly strong
for electric buses in the European Union, and their share in total bus sales reaches
around two-thirds by 2030 in the STEPS. For medium- and heavy-freight trucks,
policies already in place towards meeting the EU CO2 standards result in around
one-third of new registrations in the European Union being electric by 2030 in the
STEPS. The European Commission’s proposal to exempt zero-emission trucks
from road tolls could further support this trend. Toll charges for a long-haul diesel
truck can amount to EUR 25 000 annually. Across Europe as a whole, the share
of electric medium- and heavy-duty trucks in this scenario is around 25% in 2030,
reflecting the varying levels of policy support across different countries.

In Europe, EV sales across all vehicle types (excluding 2/3Ws) are projected to
exceed 55% by 2030 in the STEPS, with lighter vehicles such as passenger cars
and light commercial vehicles making up the majority of sales.

Recent US policy directs the government to reduce

support for EVs
On 20 January 2025, Executive Order 14154 declared that it was US policy to,
among other things, eliminate subsidies and other policy measures influencing
markets in favour of EVs. Following this, a bill was introduced to the US Senate
that proposes to repeal the Clean Vehicle Tax Credit for both electric cars and
commercial vehicles. In addition, the US Secretary of Transportation has directed
the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to review existing fuel economy
standards for LDVs. The fuel economy standards that were finalised in 2024
require the fuel economy of passenger cars to improve around 2% per year for
model years 2027-2031.

While emissions from vehicles are typically regulated at the federal level under the
Clean Air Act, in December 2024, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
granted California’s request for a waiver from federal pre-emption (by which
federal law supersedes conflicting state law) for their Advanced Clean Cars II
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(ACC-II) regulation. The ACC-II regulation requires an increasing number of

electric and fuel cell electric new car sales, from 35% in 2026 to 100% in 2035 and
beyond. In 2024, California represented almost 30% of US electric car sales, but
only around 10% of total US car sales. In addition to California, 11 other states
and Washington DC have adopted the ACC-II regulation under Section 177 of the
Clean Air Act. All together, the states that have adopted the ACC-II regulation
represent about 30% of all US LDV sales. However, Executive Order 14154 also
directed US policy to terminate, “where appropriate, state emissions waivers that
function to limit sales of gasoline-powered automobiles.” Based on stated policy
intentions, electric LDV sales in the United States increase from about 10% today
to about 20% in 2030 in the STEPS. To put this in context, in the STEPS of GEVO-
24, US electric car sales reached more than 50% in 2030, on the back of policies
in support of EVs.

The availability and stringency of fuel economy and emissions standards also has
significant implications for HDV electrification prospects in the United States. In
April 2023, the US EPA granted a waiver of pre-emption for California’s Advanced
Clean Trucks (ACT) Regulation, which requires that manufacturers produce and
sell increasing quantities of medium- and heavy-duty near-zero and zero-emission
vehicles. Ten states have since adopted the ACT regulation. On the other hand,
California withdrew its request for a waiver of pre-emption for the Advanced Clean
Fleets (ACF) Regulation, which would have required certain fleet owners to
purchase increasing shares of near-zero and zero-emission trucks. Some
elements of the ACF Regulation would not have been affected by the waiver and
so state and local government fleets will still be required to comply with the
regulation. At the federal level, in March 2024, the US EPA released final
emissions standards for HDVs, which require CO2 emissions reductions (per ton-
mile) of about 25-60% for model year 2032 trucks compared to model year 2027,
depending on truck type.

Given uncertainty in the longevity of the existing emissions standards and state
waivers, the sales share of electric medium- and heavy-duty trucks in the
United States reaches around 8% in 2030 in the STEPS, up from less than half a
percent in 2024. This compares to 20% electric truck sales projected in 2030 in
the STEPS of GEVO-24.

Electric bus deployment has historically been supported at the federal level
through funding opportunities such as the Clean School Bus Program, but city and
state policy also play a role in driving uptake, meaning that electric buses may be
relatively insulated from changes to federal policies. For example, the Illinois State
Legislature passed law that transit agencies in the state can purchase only zero-
emission buses from 2026. The California state government also offers incentives
for the purchase of buses and dedicated charging infrastructure, such as the
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USD 500 million allocated to school buses during the 2023-2024 fiscal year. In the
STEPS, EVs represent close to 15% of bus sales in 2030, up from about 3% in
2024.

Across all vehicle types, excluding 2/3Ws, EVs represent one in five vehicles sold
in the United States in 2030 in the STEPS, meaning one in thirteen vehicles on
the road in 2030 is electric. This is about half the sales share across the rest of
the world, where around 40% of vehicle sales (excluding 2/3Ws) are electric in
2030 in the STEPS.

Strong domestic industry, fuel economy standards and

targeted subsidies support EV growth in Japan
The policy framework in Japan has remained fairly stable over the past year. In
2019, the country published LDV fuel economy targets for 2030, aiming to achieve
an improvement of 32% in fuel economy by 2030 compared to 2016. This 11-year
lead time has given automakers time to incorporate the fuel economy standards
in their company strategies, and the seven largest Japanese automakers now all
have electrification targets in place.

In addition, purchase subsidies are available for electric and fuel cell cars to help
achieve the country’s net zero and Green Transformation target of 100%
electrified (including fuel cell and hybrid) car sales by 2035. In the STEPS, Japan’s
electric LDV sales increase from 3% of total LDV sales in 2024 to 20% by 2030.
This is in line with the low end of the range described in Japan’s Next-Generation
Vehicle Strategy, which aims for a 20-30% sales share of electric LDVs by 2030,
with another 30-40% sales being hybrids, and 3% being fuel cell LDVs.

Fuel economy standards for HDVs, including buses and trucks, require a reduction
in fuel consumption of more than 13% in 2025 compared to the 2015 baseline.
Japan also has purchase subsidies in place for buses and trucks to support EV
and FCEV uptake. Electric bus sales reach about 12% in 2030 in the STEPS, up
from 2% in 2024. Electric medium and heavy freight truck sales are slow but rise
from less than 0.5% today to around 10% by the end of the decade.

Japan is steadily moving towards the electrification of 2/3Ws, with electric 2/3Ws
already accounting for 7% of sales in 2024. This is further supported by city-level
policies, such as Tokyo’s subsidies for eligible 2/3Ws, which have been introduced
with the aim of all new sales being electric by 2035. The share of electric 2/3Ws
continues to rise in the STEPS, reaching more than 45% by 2030.

Japan’s EV sales share across all modes (excluding 2/3Ws) was at 3% in 2024
and increases to nearly 20% by 2030 in the STEPS, and just slightly over 20%
when including 2/3Ws. As a result, about 1 in 20 vehicles in Japan is electric in
2030 based on stated policies.
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Policy support in India focuses on the electrification of

vehicles other than cars
Following years of support under the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of
Electric Vehicles (FAME) scheme, which was introduced in 2015, implementation
of the new PM Electric Drive Revolution in Innovative Vehicle Enhancement (PM
E-DRIVE) scheme began on 1 October 2024. The new scheme focuses on electric
2/3Ws, buses, trucks and charging infrastructure, while specifically excluding
electric cars, and has a budget envelope of USD 1.3 billion to 31 March 2026.

The 2/3W segment is already the most electrified segment in India, with close to
10% of sales in 2024 being electric. This high electrification rate has been driven
by the significant savings on total cost of ownership (TCO) offered by existing
electric 2/3W models in India. As early as 2023, we estimated that, with subsidies
in place, the TCO of an average electric 2W would be 40% less than its ICE
equivalent after 5 years of ownership. The combination of policy support and
advantageous economics mean that momentum in electric 2/3W sales is set to
continue, and electric models are expected to account for more than one-third of
2/3W sales by 2030 in the STEPS.

Although there are no purchase subsidies for electric cars in India, other
mechanisms may support adoption. These include the national vehicle scrapping
policy (V-VMP), along with a number of federal and state-level policies, such as a
reduction in the rate of the federal Good and Services Tax and in the Regional
Transport Office state-level tax, as well as other registration and road tax waivers.
In addition, the government’s Production Linked Incentive scheme for Automobile
and Auto Components and for manufacturing of Advanced Chemistry Cell Battery
Storage aims to attract investments in domestic EV and battery manufacturing. In
March 2024, the government approved the Scheme to Promote Manufacturing of
Electric Passenger Cars in India to attract investment from global EV
manufacturers. This allows EV manufacturers committing to invest in India to
import electric cars with import duties reduced from 70% (or 100% if the purchase
price exceeds USD 50 000) to 15%. These policies in support of domestic
manufacturing are well-poised to help drive EV uptake.

The Indian Government is currently drafting new CO2 emissions standards for
cars, CAFE III (2027-2032) and CAFE IV (2033-2037), which have proposed
WLTP CO2 emission targets of 91.7 g CO2/km and 70 g CO2/km, respectively. This
standard will be implemented with a super-credit mechanism, making it easier for
OEMs to reach compliance through electric car sales rather than through sales of
conventional cars and non-plug-in hybrids. Based on existing policy support
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(excluding the latest CAFE III and IV proposals which are still at the consultation
stage), sales of electric cars increase from 2% in 2024 to almost 15% in 2030 in
the STEPS.

In October 2024, the government of India also adopted the PM e-Bus Sewa-PSM
Scheme to support the roll-out of 38 000 electric buses across the country, with a
budget of INR 34.4 billion (USD 394 million). When considered alongside the
support from the PM E-DRIVE scheme, electric bus sales reach 25% in 2030 in
the STEPS, up from less than 6% in 2024. Electrification of other heavy vehicles,
namely freight trucks, is expected to proceed less quickly, due to greater price
barriers. Electric truck sales reach around 2% in 2030 in the STEPS, which is
similar to India’s 2024 EV sales share for cars.

Across all vehicle modes, excluding 2/3Ws, EVs represent 1 in 8 vehicles sold in
India in 2030 in the STEPS, up from less than 1 in 50 in 2024. When 2/3Ws are
included, stated policies imply that the electrification rate increases to one in three
vehicles sold by 2030.

EV sales in Southeast Asia approach 30% of all vehicle

sales in 2030 under today’s policy settings
Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s second-largest car market, has introduced a range
of policies to meet its ambitious EV targets. One of the key incentives was the
introduction in April 2023 of a VAT discount on EV sales, which is continuing in
2025. In addition, EV manufacturing and trade policies currently provide import
duty exemptions for EVs made by manufacturers committing to establish domestic
manufacturing facilities by 2026. Under stated policies, the electric car sales share
reaches 25% by 2030, up from 9% in 2024. This translates into a stock of almost
1 million electric cars in 2030 in the STEPS, which is still less than half of the
government’s target of 2 million. The country has also set the target of 13 million
electric motorcycles by 2030. Based on recent market trends, the EV share of
2/3W sales in Indonesia increases from less than 2% in 2024 to 30% in 2030.
Despite this strong growth, the total stock of electric 2/3Ws is less than the
government target for electric motorcycles.

Several other Southeast Asian countries have recently adopted manufacturing

and trade policies to facilitate EV imports while also developing domestic EV
manufacturing. In most of these countries, such policy developments are
accompanied by measures to support EV uptake. In Malaysia, for example, the
largest car market in the region in 2024, electric cars are exempt from import
duties, registration and road taxes until the end of 2025, and until 2027 if locally
built. Thailand, Southeast Asia’s third-largest car market in 2024, implemented a
set of measures called the EV 3.5 Policy to support the roll-out of electric
passenger cars, pick-up trucks and motorcycles. This new scheme, adopted in
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Outlook for electric mobility

2024, is designed as the continuation of the previous EV 3.0 Policy, while at the
same time giving BEV manufacturers more time to meet their production
commitments under the 3.0 version to help avoid oversupply. The Thai
government will establish new purchase subsidies and road tax exemptions until
2027 under the new framework, including some incentives also for hybrid vehicles,
along with waivers on import duties for OEMs committing to produce EVs
domestically. The Philippines, Viet Nam and Singapore have also adopted
policies to reduce import duties, exempt EVs from excise taxes, or set up EV
mandates to further support the adoption of EVs in the region.

The outlook for EV sales in Southeast Asia is bright, thanks to its emerging role
as a manufacturing hub, and the existing set of manufacturing, trade and demand-
side policies supporting the electrification of road transport. Under stated policies,
electric car sales in Southeast Asia are likely to reach 25% of total car sales by
2030. Other vehicle modes are also expected to make significant strides in
electrification, with electric 2/3Ws surpassing a 30% sales share and electric
buses nearing 15%. Overall, across all vehicle segments, the EV sales share in
Southeast Asia approaches 30% in 2030 in the STEPS.

Policy support in Latin America means electric bus sales

could increase more than tenfold by 2030
Countries in Latin America have been increasing their policy support for EVs,
especially since 2020. In particular, Brazil, Colombia and Chile stand out for
passing legislation to promote EVs. This is important for the EV outlook in the
region as together, these three countries represent almost half of Latin America’s
car and bus sales.

In 2024, Brazil approved the MOVER programme, which incentivises private

sector investment in the R&D and manufacturing of sustainable vehicle
technologies including EVs. Colombia also has relevant legislation, particularly to
encourage the electrification of public buses, including a law that requires cities
with mass transportation systems to ensure that electric or zero-emission vehicle
sales increase from 10% in 2025 to 100% in 2035. In 2024, the government also
created the Fund for the Promotion of Technological Advancement, which among
other things will support electric LDV sales by covering the price differential with
ICEVs. In 2024, new LDV fuel economy standards came into effect in Chile. These
promote zero-emission vehicles by offering credit multipliers. Other countries in
Latin America also offer policy support for EVs, mainly in the form of tax incentives.

Electric car sales in Latin America increased from 0.3% in 2020 to around 4% in
2024, and reach around 13% in 2030 in the STEPS. Latin America has also seen
success in deploying electric buses, which is expected to continue: in 2030 in the
STEPS, electric bus sales reach almost 14%, up from 2% in 2024.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Outlook for electric mobility

Automakers’ electrification announcements

Near- and mid-term automaker electrification targets are
increasingly uncertain
A number of automakers have scaled back their near-term targets for EVs over
the past year, citing lower-than-expected consumer demand, and in the context of
difficulties in achieving profitability with BEVs for many non-Chinese OEMs. Many,
if not all, had previously set those targets with a degree of flexibility dependent on
market conditions. The shifting policy landscape in some markets further
increases uncertainty in automaker electrification targets out to 2030, though the
outlook for electric car sales remains robust.

General Motors (GM) – the best-selling carmaker in the United States – missed
its goal of producing and wholesaling 200 000 EVs in North America in 2024 by
about 5%. The company expects to produce up to 300 000 EVs in 2025, and is no
longer reiterating its previous target of reaching an annual production capacity of
1 million EVs by the end of 2025. Similarly, Tesla – the best-selling electric
carmaker in the United States – dropped the goal of selling 20 million cars per
year by 2030 from its 2023 annual impact report, despite this target having been
included in consecutive previous reports. The uncertainty around whether Tesla
will still aim to sell 20 million electric cars worldwide in 2030 has a significant
impact on the range of OEM electrification targets in all of the major markets.

In 2021, Ford, GM and Stellantis released a joint statement announcing their

aspiration to achieve sales of 40-50% electric or fuel cell electric cars in the
United States by 2030, in line with the Biden administration’s target. Given the
change of administration in the United States, the future commitment to these
targets is unclear. As such, the range of OEM declarations for electric car sales in
the United States in 2030 now stretches from 70% electric car sales in 2030 to
less than 30%; a year ago the lower end of the range of OEM declarations in the
United States was around 50%. In spite of this, even if only the lower end of the
OEM target range were to be achieved, the electric car sales share in the
United States would almost triple by 2030.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Outlook for electric mobility

Range of electric car sales shares based on automaker electrification targets, 2030
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
China Europe United States Global
Range of OEM declarations (today) Range of OEM declarations (Q1 2024) 2024 sales share

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: OEM = original equipment manufacturer. Q1 2024 OEM declarations reflect the interpretation of automaker targets
as presented in the Global EV Outlook 2024. The range today reflects OEM announcements as of the end of Q1 2025. The
relative market share of OEMs is held constant unless the OEM has EV volume targets rather than sales share targets.
Sources: IEA analysis based on company announcements and data from EV Volumes and Marklines.

With regards to the European market, Ford has abandoned its goal to shift entirely
to electric sales in Europe by 2030, though in 2024 Ford was responsible for less
than 5% of car sales in the region. Volvo Cars, also representing less than 5% of
car sales in Europe, has also scaled down its 2030 all-electric target, allowing for
up to 10% of its sales to be hybrids. Similarly, Renault had previously aimed for
100% of its car sales to be electric in Europe by 2030, but in 2024 its CEO
announced that a two-pronged approach of selling both ICE and electric cars will
continue for the next decade. Nevertheless, the range of OEM electrification
targets for Europe remains the highest of the major EV markets, reaching from
over 60% to around 85% of car sales in 2030.

In contrast, as Chinese EV sales remained strong over 2024, BYD surpassed its
2024 sales target, which had already been increased from 3.6 million new energy
vehicles (i.e. EVs and FCEVs) to 4 million. In total, BYD represented about 15%
of car sales in China; all-electric car brands (including Tesla, Li Auto, NIO and
others) together represented one-quarter of car sales in China in 2024. As a result
of the growing success of all-electric car brands, the EV sales shares in China in
2030 based on OEM targets has increased, despite there being no new targets
for 2030. The range of OEM declarations for 2030 would imply a 55-80% electric
car sales share.

While Honda has not scaled back its long-term zero-emission vehicle targets
(100% of sales by 2040), it has announced the aim to double hybrid car sales by
2030. Indian OEM Tata has reduced its 2030 BEV sales target from 50% to 30%.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Outlook for electric mobility

At the global level, the range of uncertainty in electric car sales in 2030 projected
in automakers’ declarations has grown over the past year, meaning that the
increase in global sales as envisaged by their targets now ranges from 35-60%.
However, achieving even the lower end of this range would mean that the number
of electric car sales in 2030 would be approximately double that of 2024.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

6. Electric vehicle charging

Charging electric light-duty vehicles

Public chargers have doubled since 2022 to reach more
than 5 million

Access to public charging points is key to supporting mass adoption

Home charging remains the most popular way to charge for EV owners. However,
more public chargers are needed to support mass adoption of EVs among
segments of the population without access to home chargers.

In 2024, more than 1.3 million public charging points were added to the global
stock, representing an increase of more than 30% compared to the previous year.
Just the charging points added in 2024 were approximately equal to the total
number of points available in 2020. About two-thirds of the growth in public
chargers since 2020 has occurred in China, which now has about 65% of the
charging and 60% of the electric light-duty vehicle stock globally.

In Europe, the number of public charging points grew more than 35% in 2024
compared to 2023, to reach just over 1 million. However, there are significant
variations across countries due to differing rates of EV adoption and charging
infrastructure development. Within the European Union, 11 out of 27 countries
saw their public stock of charging points increase by more than 50% in 2024
compared to the previous year. At the end of 2024, the Netherlands had the
largest national charging network in Europe, with over 180 000 public charging
points, followed by Germany (160 000) and France (155 000). In Austria, 8 000
public charging points were added in 2024, most of which were supported by a
subsidy that ended at the beginning of 2025.

Installation of public charging points across the European Union is expected to

increase as a result of the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR),
which mandates the installation of fast-charging stations for cars and vans of at
least 150 kW every 60 km along the TEN-T core road network by 2025. Each
station must offer a minimum total power output of 400 kW, increasing to 600 kW
by the end of 2027. In addition, roll-out of private charging at residential and
commercial buildings is covered under the revised EU Energy Performance in
Buildings Directive, which establishes criteria for pre-cabling to prevent the future
need to retrofit parking infrastructure, which can be costly.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

The United States increased its charging stock by 20% in 2024 to just under
200 000 public charging points. The National EV Infrastructure Program, part of
the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law that was passed in 2021, allocated USD 5 billion
to fund fast chargers along corridors, although by the end of 2024 only around
USD 30 million had been spent on charging points that are now in operation. In
January 2025, Executive Order 14154 paused the disbursement of these funds
for a review of the processes, policies and programmes associated with grant
selections, making future disbursements of the remaining unspent funds uncertain.

Policy efforts in India continue to support charging accessibility, with about 40 000
new public chargers installed in 2024. In October 2024, INR 20 billion
(USD 240 million) was allocated to charging infrastructure through the PM E-
DRIVE scheme, with a focus on urban centres and heavily-used transport
corridors. However, the Indian government has also introduced an EV policy that
caps the investment in charging infrastructure eligible for tariff relief, potentially
impacting automakers' plans to invest in EV charging networks.

Global stock of public charging points by speed and region, 2018-2024

By speed By region
6
Million

0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Slow Fast Ultra-fast China Europe United States Rest of World

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Chargers less than or equal to 22 kW are classified as slow, chargers greater than 22 kW and up to 150 kW as fast,
and 150 kW and above as ultra-fast.
Sources: IEA analysis based on country submissions and data from EV Volumes and EAFO.

Brazil's charging infrastructure has expanded at speed. By early December 2024,

there were over 12 000 public charging points across the country. Public charging
networks have also experienced rapid expansion in other key emerging markets,
reflecting strong policy support and investment in infrastructure. Public charging
points have increased by 60% in Colombia and by 20% in Mexico since 2022.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

Similarly, thanks to a mix of government initiatives and private sector collaboration,

there are now over 24 000 chargers installed across Indonesia, Thailand,
Malaysia and Viet Nam, 9 times more than in 2022.

Variation in ratio of EVs per public charger reflects differences

in market maturity and population demographics
One way to think about public charging coverage is in terms of the number of
public charging points compared to the stock of electric light-duty vehicles those
points are meant to serve. China and the European Union have maintained a
steady pace of charger deployment compared to the number of EVs on the road,
though at different levels. There is now more than 1 public charger for every 10
electric cars in China. On average, the European Union has 1 charger for every
13 electric cars – a decrease of more than 10% compared to 2023.

Electric light-duty vehicles per public charging point in selected regions, 2016-2024
(left) and ratio compared to electric vehicle stock share in selected regions, 2024 (right)

40 40
EVs per public charger

35 35 United
States
30 30 Norway
United
25 25 Kingdom
Germany
20 20

15 15 EU

10 10
China
World
5 5
Korea
0 0
2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 0% 10% 20% 30%
World China EV stock share
Korea United States <2% 2%-5% 5%-10% >10%
Norway United Kingdom
European Union
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: EU = European Union; EV = electric vehicle. Historic trends in electric light-duty vehicle stock and public charging
infrastructure by country can be interactively explored using the Global EV Data Explorer. The figure on the right-hand side
shows selected regions as dots, with the over 10% group comprising China, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, the 5-10%
group Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom; the 2-5% group: European Union (average), France,
Korea, the United States and the World average; and the group below 2%: India, Indonesia, Italy and Japan.
Sources: IEA analysis based on country submissions, EV Volumes, BNEF, EAFO, and US AFDC.

However, demand for public charging points also differs based on driver location
and behaviour. In China’s densely populated cities, many drivers rely on public
charging points, whereas in Europe, access to home chargers is far higher. The
combined stock of the top 15 cities by public charger stock in China covers more
than 50% of the national stock, compared to a share of 25% in Europe. The types
of housing typically available (apartment, terrace, detached, etc.) can also play an
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

important role in shaping the need for public charging access. For example,
Germany and the United Kingdom both have a similar electric car stock share, but
the United Kingdom has 60% more electric cars per public charger. In Germany,
more than 60% of people live in apartments or flats; whereas in England and
Wales, fewer than 25% of people do, meaning it may be easier to install private
charging.

In the early stages of electrification, greater availability of public EV charging

points can encourage adoption. However, as EV adoption increases, and as
charging speeds become faster and battery ranges improve, the number of
charger points per vehicle can decrease as the system is optimised.

Fast charging continues to expand, with ultra-fast charging

having more than doubled in Europe since 2022
In addition to coverage, the capacity of public chargers can serve as an indication
of sufficiency. Fast and ultra-fast public charging points can deliver more energy
per day than slow chargers and thus serve a higher number of vehicles. In 2024,
the global stock of fast chargers (with a power output higher than 22 kW and lower
than 150 kW) reached 2 million, and ultra-fast chargers – capable of delivering
150 kW or above – growing by over 50% in 2024 and now accounting for nearly
10% of all fast chargers. Falling costs have played a role in this shift, with the price
of ultra-fast chargers falling by 20% between 2022 and 2024.

China remained the largest player in fast charging deployment last year,
responsible for 80% of the global growth, with the number of fast chargers surging
from 1.2 million in 2023 to 1.6 million in 2024. Today, the estimated public
charging capacity per electric LDV in China is over 3 kW. In comparison, the
United States expanded its total fast charger stock (including ultra-fast) from
40 000 in 2023 to over 50 000 in 2024, growing at a similar rate to in China. At the
end of 2024, there was less than 1.5 kW of public charging capacity available in
the United States per electric LDV.

Meanwhile, the European Union expanded its network of fast chargers

(excluding ultra-fast) nearly 50% from 2023 to reach 71 000 in 2024, and has an
average public charging capacity of 2.6 kW per electric LDV. It also saw strong
deployment of ultra-fast charging points in 2024, increasing by 60% compared to
2023 to reach over 77 000 chargers. Denmark saw its stock of ultra-fast chargers
more than double in 2024, and in France, Finland and Germany the stock
increased by between 70-95%. Further expansions are also being planned, for
example in France, where "Charge France", a charge point operator association
established in 2025, committed to investing EUR 4 billion to expand the national
stock of ultra-fast charging points from over 17 000 today to 40 000 by 2028.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

Of the ultra-fast chargers in the European Union, about 20% deliver a power of
350 kW and above. Today, only a few high-end electric cars are capable of
charging at this speed, but charging point operators such as FastNed and
Iberdrola and BP Pulse are deploying these stations in anticipation of future
demand. In 2024 this higher segment of ultra-fast chargers almost doubled
compared to 2023.

Number of electric light-duty vehicles per public charging point and kilowatt per
electric light-duty vehicle, 2024

Number of electric LDVs per charging point

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
New Zealand
Australia
Mexico
United States
Norway
Canada
United Kingdom
Indonesia
Germany
Portugal
Japan
Switzerland
Iceland
Brazil
Thailand
South Africa
Sweden
Poland
Finland
Denmark
European Union
France
Spain
World
Italy
China
Belgium
Greece
Chile
Netherlands
India
Korea
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
kW of public charging per electric LDV
kW/EV (bottom axis) EV/EVSE (top axis)

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: EV = electric vehicle; EVSE = electric vehicle supply equipment; LDV = light-duty vehicle. Kilowatts per EV are
estimated assuming 15 kW for slow and 50 kW for fast chargers and 150 kW for ultra-fast chargers. For countries in
Europe, average power per EVSE was used per power group: slow (lower than 22 kW), fast (between 22 kW and 150 kW)
and ultra-fast (higher than 150 kW) and multiplied with reported stock of chargers. Official national statistics, which rely on
more granular data, might differ from these values.
Sources: IEA analysis based on BNEF, EV Volumes, EAFO and Eco-Movement, US AFDC.

Ultra-fast charging infrastructure projects are also underway in Chinese cities.

Beijing aims to build 1 000 ultra-fast charging stations by the end of 2025, and
Chongqing to deploy 4 000 additional ultra-fast chargers by the end of 2025.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

These regional plans also align with XPeng and Volkswagen’s plans to roll out
20 000 ultra-fast chargers across more than 400 Chinese cities.

Elsewhere, Korea has seen rapid growth in its fast charger stock (including ultra-
fast), rising from 34 000 in 2023 to 47 000 in 2024. In 2025, authorities plan to
deploy 4 400 new fast chargers in high demand areas. Korea’s total budget for
enhancing charging infrastructure was raised by 40% compared to 2024 to KRW
620 billion (Korean won) (USD 425 million), with 60% of the assigned budget
targeting fast chargers, and the remainder dedicated to slow smart-charging
installations. In India, three major government-owned oil marketing companies
built nearly 8 000 fast-charging points over the course of 2023 and 2024, funded
by the FAME Phase II scheme.

Proportion of slow, fast and ultra-fast public chargers in selected countries, 2024

Türkiye
Lithuania
Poland
Norway
Portugal
Finland
United States
Spain
Germany
European Union
Iceland
Austria
France
Canada
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Italy
Sweden
Denmark
Greece
Belgium
Netherlands

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Slow Fast Ultra-fast

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Chargers less than or equal to 22 kW are defined as slow, chargers between 22 kW and 150 kW are fast, and ultra-
fast chargers are those of 150 kW or more.
Sources: IEA analysis based on EAFO and US AFDC.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

Advances in battery technology for electric cars can make charging

competitive with refuelling time, if charging infrastructure can keep up
EV owners report that charging speed is their most important consideration when
using public chargers. Safety concerns relating to EV battery technology have long
been a limiting factor in reaching faster charging, but recent innovations are now
reshaping the fast-charging landscape.
During charging, lithium ions are released from the cathode to the anode. If the
process is too slow compared to the desired charging speed, lithium can accumulate
on the anode surface, forming dendrites – needle-like structures that can pierce the
battery, potentially causing short circuits and uncontrolled fires. Recently, however,
some battery manufacturers have largely succeeded in addressing this through
advanced anode designs, such as multi-gradient layered structures, which accelerate
lithium uptake.
In 2023, CATL launched the Shenxing battery, which is able to charge about 30% of
the battery in just 5 minutes, providing 200 km of additional range. This was further
improved in 2024, when they released a battery offering similar energy density but
faster charging speeds in collaboration with SAIC-GM – allowing to recharge over
40% of the battery capacity in 5 minutes – as well as a battery with the same charging
speed (30% in 5 minutes) but increased energy density, providing 300 km of additional
range in 5 minutes. For comparison, a typical Tesla supercharger can offer about
100 km of additional range during the same time.
In March 2025, BYD set a new benchmark with its Super-e platform, which is claimed
to deliver around 400 km of range in 5 minutes. This leap was made possible by next-
generation silicon carbide power chips, all-liquid-cooling, and a 1 000 V architecture,
which allows for coupling with 1 MW charging. Just one month later, CATL announced
the second generation of its Shenxing battery, offering even higher charging speeds.
Megawatt charging was previously limited to heavy-duty vehicles, where the energy
was distributed across battery packs roughly ten times larger than those in passenger
cars. Now, advances in battery technology and charging platforms are bringing this
capability to the passenger car market, with the first models already on sale in China.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

Maximum share of battery capacity charged and electric range added in 5

minutes by electric car model or battery technology
75% 600
Battery SoC added in 5 minutes

Kilometres added in 5 minutes

60% 480

45% 360

30% 240

15% 120

0% 0
Tesla Porsche Tesla Hyundai Lucid CATL CATL SAIC-GM BYD CATL
model S Taycan model Y Ioniq 5 Air Shenxing Shenxing (CATL) Super-e Shenxing
Plus (2nd)
Battery charging Added range (right)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: SoC = state of charge. Battery SoC added indicates how much the battery is recharged starting from a low SoC
(20%). For example, adding 30% SoC means charging the battery from 20% to 50%. The additional range is calculated by
multiplying the manufacturer’s stated electric range by the proportion of the battery that can be recharged in 5 minutes under
optimal conditions. Tesla model Y and S are assumed to be charged through a third generation supercharger.
Sources: IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes, Tesla, Porsche, Hyundai, Lucid, CATL, GM authority, and BYD.

The full realisation of these advantages, however, hinges on deploying ultra-high-

power charging infrastructure. Megawatt chargers impose significant loads on grids,
often requiring upgrades that could significantly slow down or limit deployment, and
are more expensive than fast chargers, which could result in higher charging prices
for consumers. Pairing these chargers with battery storage to alleviate peak demand
and optimise grid usage might offer a pathway to accelerate their roll-out. In
recognition of the infrastructural challenge, BYD – together with its Super-e platform
– has announced plans to deploy 4 000 megawatt chargers supported by battery
storage in China. This evolution would also strengthen the interdependencies
between the two biggest battery markets – EV batteries and battery storage –
potentially increasing the competitive advantage of producers manufacturing both,
such as BYD and CATL.
For most consumers, reliable fast charger networks capable of recharging a vehicle
in 15-20 minutes may be sufficient for long-distance travel. However, the ability to
charge EVs in a timeframe comparable to refuelling conventional cars could further
accelerate consumer adoption.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

The location and speed of public charging stations

reflect typical usage

Most public chargers are slow chargers in urban areas but

highway chargers account for a larger share of capacity
Individual countries and cities have taken different approaches to public charging
station deployment, based on the distribution of population, availability of home
charging, and road networks, although there are some commonalities. Currently,
in Europe and the United States, more than two-thirds of chargers are located in
urban areas. In the European Union, deployment has broadly followed housing
patterns, and over 70% of the population now lives within 1 kilometre of a charging
point. In the United States, which has a lower population density, less than half of
the population lives within 1 kilometre of a charger.

Type and location of public charging in selected regions and countries and the share
of population living within 1 kilometre of a charger, 2024
100%
Share of charger stock

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
EUR EU GBR NLD USA ESP DEU BEL FRA ITA NOR

City Urban area Highway Other Fast Slow Share of population within 1 km of a charger

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: EUR = Europe; EU = European Union; GBR = United Kingdom; NLD = Netherlands; USA = United States; ESP =
Spain, DEU = Germany; BEL = Belgium; FRA = France; ITA = Italy; NOR: Norway. Solid colours represent fast chargers
and hatched colours slow chargers. Chargers less than or equal to 22 kW are defined as slow; fast chargers are over
22 kW.
Sources: IEA analysis based on US AFDC, EAFO, Eco-Movement. Urban areas for Europe are taken from the Functional
Urban Areas of 2020 and consists of the city and the commuting zone, urban areas for the United States are the Census
Populated Place Areas from the US Energy Atlas.

The public charging infrastructure in cities and urban areas consists mainly of slow
chargers (less than or equal to 22 kW), which was the most widely adopted
technology until relatively recently. Only 15% of the urban public chargers in
Europe are rated over 22 kW. This share is slightly higher in the United States,
where nearly 30% of urban public chargers are fast. While deploying fast chargers
can help to serve more EVs per charging point each day, limited available network
capacity in city centres or urban areas can present a hurdle.
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On average, in the United States and Europe, between 4% and 6% of public

charging points are positioned along highways and have at least 22 kW rate power.
Norway is an exception, with nearly 20% of its charger stock being fast chargers
positioned next to highways, as a result of a 2016 target to install fast-charging
stations at least every 50 km on major roads to support long-distance trips. When
considering charging power rather than points, the share becomes even larger,
with 35% of public charging capacity being located along the highway in Norway.
Across all countries considered, the share of highway chargers in terms of total
power is higher than by charging point stock, as highway chargers tend to be the
fastest.

Location of public charging stock by capacity and number of charging points in

selected regions and countries, 2024

100%
Share of charger stock

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
United European United Norway United European United Norway
States Union Kingdom States Union Kingdom
By power By points
City Urban area Highway Other

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Sources: IEA analysis based on US AFDC, EAFO and Eco-Movement. Urban areas for Europe are taken from the
Functional Urban Areas of 2020 and consists of the city and the commuting zone, Urban areas for the United States are
the Census Populated Place Areas from the US Energy Atlas.

Major European cities typically have more chargers per EV

than surrounding areas
The different characteristics of roads, buildings and parking spaces in different
cities can affect the strategy for deploying public chargers. In cities such as
Amsterdam, where residential and office buildings often have less private parking,
more public chargers need to be available. Public chargers in cities must also
serve taxis and delivery vehicles, for which overnight charging is not sufficient, as
well as other visitors to the city that may need to charge during the day. The split
between overnight charging by residents and opportunity charging for other
vehicles will affect the speed and distribution of public charges, as reflected by the
charging capacity per EV in the stock.
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European cities have different levels of electric car adoption. Scandinavian cities
such as Oslo, Stockholm and Copenhagen have the highest share of electric cars
in their fleet, with 55%, 35% and 20% of the cars being electric. As the most mature
market, Oslo also has one of the highest ratios of EVs per charger (over 30) and
the lowest capacity available per EV (around 1 kW). Both Copenhagen and
Stockholm have less than 10 EVs per public charging point in the city – lower than
their national average, which indicates that expanding coverage in cities has been
prioritised ahead of rural areas around highways.

Charger to electric vehicle ratio and kW per electric vehicle for selected cities and their
commuting zones, and country averages, 2024

EVs per charger point kW per EV

0 10 20 30 40 50 0 2 4 6 8

Amsterdam Amsterdam
NLD

Utrecht Utrecht
Paris Paris
FRA

Lyon Lyon
Marseille Marseille
Berlin Berlin
DEU

Hamburg Hamburg
Munich Munich
London London
Copenhagen Copenhagen
Other

Stockholm Stockholm
Oslo Oslo

City Commuting zone Country

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: NLD: Netherlands; DEU: Germany; FRA: France. Data on chargers in Oslo’s commuting zone are not available.
Sources: IEA analysis based on national statistics, EAFO and Eco-Movement. City EV stock: NLD: Atlas van de auto; FRA:
AAA Data; DEU: KBA; London: Department for Transport and Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency; Stockholm: TRAFA;
Oslo: SSB; Copenhagen: SDG Statistikbank; number and capacity per city and commuting zone was determined using
point location of charger database of Eco-Movement, consulted February 2025.

Cities in the Netherlands, Germany and France have a lower share of electric cars
in the fleet; across Amsterdam, Utrecht, Paris, Berlin and Munich, between 6%
and 13% of cars are electric. In terms of both coverage and capacity, the Dutch
cities perform better compared to the national and urban averages. In particular,
the gap between the city capacity per EV and the national average indicate that
these cities have placed greater emphasis on faster chargers and installing them
in a higher density compared to other areas outside the city.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

European highways have more charger coverage than

highways in the United States
At the end of 2024, over 75% of the European highway network had chargers at
most 50 km apart, whereas only 35% of the US interstate highway system had the
same level of coverage. Within Europe, coverage is varied: For example, in the
Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, Germany and France, over 90% of the highway
network has a charging point every 50 km, while in Spain and Poland the share is
below 80%. Similarly, deployment in the United States varies across regions. In
the Pacific region (e.g. California, Oregon and Washington), which has the largest
share of EV stock, 70% of the highways have charging infrastructure every 50 km,
but in the centre of the country that share is between 20% and 30%.

Percentage of highways that are covered by a fast or ultra-fast charger in selected

markets and road networks and number of chargers and petrol stations per 50 km of
highway, 2024

Coverage road network Coverage all highways

0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
Southeast
All highways
Canada

Southwest
United States

Pacific
Core network Rocky Mountain
Northeast
United States

All highways Mid West

Norway
Interstate Belgium
Germany
All highways United Kingdom
European

Europe
Union

Netherlands
TEN-T France
Spain
Europe

Italy
All highways
Poland
0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
Number of stations/50 km Number of stations/50 km
Only ultra-fast Fast and ultra-fast

Petrol (lower axis) Ultra-fast (lower axis) Fast and ultra-fast (lower axis)

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: TEN-T = Trans-European Transport Network. Chargers between 22 kW and 150 kW are classified as fast, and ultra-
fast chargers are those of 150 kW or more. For regional groupings for the United States see Annex B. Only chargers within
a radius of 150 metres of the highway are included; stations with less than 4 charging points are excluded. Coverage is
calculated by setting a radius of 25 km around each charging point, so actual driving distance between two charging points
likely exceeds 50 km based on the curvature of the road and the routing. To determine the number of stations on the
bottom axis all charging points within 500 metres of each other are considered as one station.
Sources: IEA analysis based on US AFDC, EAFO and Eco-Movement. Existing and planned TEN-T highways roads were
taken as depicted in TENtec viewer, other highways for Europe are taken from Esri filtered on attribute “Highway”. The
Interstate highway network can be found on the National Highway System Map provided by the Federal Highway
Administration. North American highways other than the interstate network are taken from the National Transportation Atlas
Databases for the United States, whereas the highway system of Canada is taken from Transport Canada. Location of
petrol stations was taken from Open Street Maps using amenity “fuel”; points within 150 metres of each other were
considered as one petrol station.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

Ultra-fast charging (150 kW and above) allows the most direct comparison with a
conventional highway pit stop, where charging times of 15 minutes can provide an
additional 150 km of driving range. 1 For long trips on interstate or international
corridors, EV drivers may prefer a longer break, meaning fast charging at rates
between 22 kW and 150 kW may also be an attractive option. If fast chargers are
also taken into account, the charging coverage in the European Union increases,
with an additional 25% of the roads having a fast charger at least every 50 km. In
the United States, the share of the interstate road network covered by a charging
station also increases from nearly 30%, when considering ultra-fast charging
exclusively, to nearly 40% when also including fast charging.

Despite the high charging infrastructure coverage along European roads, the
number of fast-charging stations along highways remains significantly lower than
that of petrol stations. Ensuring a denser charging network would help to address
range anxiety and help instil confidence in EV adoption by making charging as
convenient and reassuring as conventional refuelling. This would allow for more
flexibility in planning routes around charging stops and help address worst-case
scenarios, such as unexpected detours, traffic delays, or extreme weather
conditions.

Public charging does not always equal accessible charging

About 20% of public chargers in Europe are in fact “semi-public”, meaning that
access is limited to part of the population, such as chargers provided by hotels or
supermarkets that are only accessible to customers. Such chargers may also have
physical barriers and more limited hours, which degrades charging access and
experience.

Technical barriers can also hinder ease of use, even for fully public charging
stations, as can occur with incompatible plug types (e.g. Type 2, Combined
Charging System, CHAdeMO). Other factors, such as the payment system or (in
the case of Tesla chargers), the brand of the vehicle, can also limit the usability of
charging infrastructure, reducing overall accessibility. Standardisation, in
combination with access to reliable data on the availability and pricing of charging
stations, will therefore be important for making public charging infrastructure more
accessible.

1
This estimate assumes a fuel economy of 20 kWh/100 km and a minimum charging level of 20%. For reference, the fuel
economy of the Tesla Model X is rated at 22.5 kWh/100 km
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

Light-duty vehicle charging outlook

Public charging capacity for light-duty EVs grows almost
ninefold to 2030
In general, early adopters of electric cars have tended to have higher rates of
access to home charging than the broader population. Even though electric LDVs
represent 15% of the global stock in 2030 in the STEPS – which could be
considered as moving past the early-adopter phase – home charging is expected
to remain the preferred way to charge an EV when available, given the affordability
and convenience. Charging availability at other private locations, such as at
workplaces, and public charging, will also support more widespread adoption of
EVs, especially among populations without access to home charging, or for
travelling long distances. In the STEPS, around 150 million charging points are
added from 2025 to the end of 2030, with almost two-thirds of those being home
chargers, 30% other private chargers, and the remaining 8% public charging
points.

The build-out of public charging points in the STEPS is intended to reflect the
number required to serve the stock of electric LDVs projected in the scenario. As
such, the charging projections are based on the policies and market trends driving
the vehicle projections as opposed to simply matching charging-related policies
and regulations. The charging point projections do, however, account for regional
trends, such as the historical evolution of the number of charging points per EV,
the share and capacity of public fast chargers, and access to home and other
private charging. Generally, as EV markets mature, optimisation of the public
charging network is expected to improve, meaning that utilisation can increase
with no negative effect on user experience. In line with this, in the STEPS, the
number of electric LDVs per public charging point worldwide increases from about
11 in 2024 to around 14 in 2030.

The number of charging points available constitutes just one metric of coverage;
the installed charging capacity is also important. Public fast chargers, with their
higher charging capacity, are able to provide more energy and thus serve more
EVs per day than slow chargers. Over half of the charging capacity installed to
serve electric LDVs between 2025 and the end of 2030 in the STEPS takes the
form of fast public chargers. That means that the public fast charging capacity
increases more than tenfold by 2030, while private charging capacity increases
less than fourfold.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

Global light-duty vehicle charger stock and capacity in the Stated Policies Scenario,
2024-2030

Stock Capacity
250 2.5
Million charging points

TW
200 2.0

150 1.5

100 1.0

50 0.5

0 0.0

2024 Additions (2025-2030) 2030 2024 Additions (2025-2030) 2030

Private - home Private - other Public - slow Public - fast

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: “Private – other” refers to charging points that are neither publicly accessible nor at private residences. Home
charging stock in 2024 is estimated based on electric light-duty vehicle stock and regional assumptions regarding the ratio
of home chargers to vehicles. Regional projected electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) stock data can be explored via
the interactive Global EV Data Explorer.

In China, the relatively low ratio of electric LDVs to public charging points that has
been maintained over the past decade is partly because Chinese EV owners have
tended to be concentrated in dense cities with limited access to home charging.
In the STEPS, the ratio of electric LDVs per public charging point remains
relatively low but still grows to around 11. The stock of public charging points in
China grows more than threefold by 2030 in the STEPS, reaching over 12 million
charging points. The share of public fast chargers continues to grow, as it has
during the first half of this decade, increasing from around 45% in 2024 to over
50% in 2030. In 2024, China added about 850 000 public charging points. The
average annual additions needed to reach the public charging stock projected in
the STEPS in 2030 are about 75% higher than was observed in 2024, and 60%
higher than the additions in 2023. For China to reach an electric LDV stock of
around 140 million in 2030, as in the STEPS, maintaining a ratio of 11 EVs per
public charging point would require, on average, net additions of 1.5 million
charging points each year. The public charging capacity in China increases by
about 900 GW to 2030 in the STEPS. To limit the stress that EV charging puts on
the grid, the Chinese government has published a policy for standardising vehicle-
to-grid technologies, through which EVs are expected to provide 10 GW of flexible
capacity by 2030 (see Smart charging and vehicle-grid integration below).
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

Number of public light-duty vehicle charging points by region in the Stated Policies
Scenario, 2024-2030
14 42

Electric LDVs per public charging point

Million public charging points

12 36

10 30

8 24

6 18

4 12

2 6

0 0
2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030
China Europe United States Rest of World

Slow Fast EVs per public charging point (right axis)

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: EV = electric vehicle; LDV = light-duty vehicle. Slow refers to charging points with a power rating of 22 kW and
under, while fast refers to higher power ratings. Regional charging point projections can be explored via the interactive
Global EV Data Explorer.

In Europe, the stock of public charging points doubles by 2030 in the STEPS to
reach more than 2 million. The share of fast chargers continues to increase and
reaches 30% in 2030 in the STEPS, up from less than 20% in 2024. As such,
public charging capacity across Europe reaches 115 GW in 2030, including slow
and fast chargers. The increase in the share of fast chargers, as well as the growth
in their average power rating, means that while the ratio of electric LDVs per
charging point increases from less than 15 in 2024 to close to 25 in 2030, the
public charging capacity per vehicle increases to over 2 kW per electric LDV. This
level of public charging capacity exceeds the power output targets laid out in the
EU AFIR (1.3 kW per battery electric LDV and 0.8 kW per plug-in hybrid). To reach
the level of public charging projected in the STEPS in 2030, Europe must add
210 000 public charging points per year on average through 2030, which is less
than the 275 000 public charging points added across Europe in 2024.

Beyond EU regulation, there are national targets for public charging infrastructure
in Europe. For example, the French government aims to have 400 000 publicly
accessible charging stations by 2030, about two-and-a-half times the number
available at the end of 2024. The UK government has stated an aim for at least
300 000 public charging stations in 2030, about three-and-a-half times the stock
in 2024. The German government has also previously set a target of 1 million
public charging points by 2030, though energy industry groups have criticised this
target for being more than will be needed.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

Annual public charging point additions by region needed to reach the stock in the
Stated Policies Scenario, 2030

China

Europe

United States

India

RoW

0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600

Maximum historical Average required (2025-2030) Thousand

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: RoW = Rest of World. In all regions shown, except China, the maximum historical public EV charging point additions
were observed in 2024; in China the most additions took place in 2023.

In the United States, the stock of public LDV charging points grows from almost
200 000 at the end of 2024 to over 500 000 at the end of 2030 in the STEPS. This
assumes the historic trend in the increasing ratio of electric LDV stock per public
charging point continues, and that in 2030 there are almost 40 electric LDVs per
public charging point, up from around 32 in 2024. Although this ratio is significantly
higher than the global average, recent survey findings suggest that over 85% of
US EV owners have access to home charging. However, with rising EV sales, this
share is expected to decrease. In addition, the majority of EV owners with home
chargers still use public chargers weekly.

The share of fast chargers in the United States grows from less than 30% in 2024
to 40% in 2030 in the STEPS, meaning that the available public charging capacity
per electric LDV grows to over 1.5 kW per EV. In 2024, the United States added
about 35 000 public charging points across the country. To reach the more than
0.5 million projected in the STEPS in 2030, the United States would need to build
out an average of 58 000 public charging points per year. At the end of 2024, fewer
than 200 stations funded through the NEVI programme were in operation
(representing less than 1% of the 2024 public charging additions), but over 3 500
had conditional awards or agreements in place. However, as the policies
underlying the implementation of the NEVI Formula Program are now under
review, the future of federal funding for EV charging infrastructure is uncertain.
Nevertheless, NEVI and other federally funded charging points have previously
been estimated to represent less than 15% of announced non-home charging
deployments.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

In India, the number of public charging points increases from 75 000 at the end of
2024 to around 375 000 by the end of 2030 in the STEPS to support a stock of
less than 3 million electric LDVs. As a result, in 2030 in the STEPS there are
around 7 electric LDVs per public charging point, up from fewer than 4 in 2024. To
reach this projected stock of public charging points, around 50 000 charging points
would need to be added on average each year through 2030, about 30% more
than the number of additions observed in 2024. India’s PM E-DRIVE Scheme
includes INR 20 billion (Indian rupees) (USD 240 million) for public EV charging
stations, with plans to support a targeted 22 100 EV chargers for electric four-
wheeled vehicles through March 2026.

Across other countries, about 630 000 public charging points are added between
the end of 2024 and 2030 in the STEPS, or an average of 105 000 new public
charging points per year. Governments around the world have set targets for
public charging points to support expansion to 2030 and beyond. Japan targets a
stock of 300 000 public charging points by 2030, about 9 times the stock at the
end of 2024. The government of New Zealand aims to have 10 000 charge points
by 2030, a seven-fold increase from the end of 2024. Across Southeast Asia,
Indonesia aims to reach 30 000 charging stations by 2030 and Thailand 12 000.

Charging electric heavy-duty vehicles

Megawatt-scale chargers are now being deployed
In general, electric heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) can use the same charging
equipment as LDVs, although different charging station configurations may be
needed to accommodate the HDVs, given their larger size. In addition, as the
batteries of HDVs are larger and therefore take longer to replenish, higher-
powered chargers are needed to minimise disruptions to regular operations. The
effective deployment of electric HDVs is therefore likely to require the buildout of
devoted charging equipment to ensure charging times compatible with the
operational efficiency of commercial fleets. Most electric HDV operators today rely
on depot charging when the vehicles are not in use, typically overnight, but en
route or opportunity chargers are generally also needed to enable longer-range
applications.

The growth in deployment of electric buses has been enabled by the buildout of
charging depots by national and local governments as well as by transit agencies.
For example, in the United Kingdom, the government’s Zero Emission Bus
Regional Areas scheme supported the establishment of an electric bus charging
hub to power South Yorkshire’s first electric buses. Germany’s Deutsche Bahn
and various partners have supported charging infrastructure for electric buses that
charge exclusively at the depot overnight. In China, policy support for bus charging
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

infrastructure has helped to enable huge growth in the electric bus stock, with
megawatt-scale charging being demonstrated for buses in Sichuan at the end of
2024.

As with buses, the roll-out of depot chargers is expected to lead the first phase of
electric truck charging deployment, as fleet operators have the greatest control
over private charging infrastructure. However, scaling up public chargers of
350 kW or more will be critical to support wider adoption. The EU Alternative Fuels
Infrastructure Regulation sets specific targets for HDV charging, including
charging points with an individual power output of at least 350 kW every 60 km
along primary roads and every 100 km along secondary roads. Megawatt
chargers are also expected to play a role in HDV charging, given that reducing
charging time is highly valued in the sector. An HDV with a battery pack of
300 kWh (similar to the global sales-weighted average in 2024) would require
about 30 minutes to recharge 2 using a 350 kW charger, but only about 15 minutes
using a megawatt charger.

In 2024, the world’s first megawatt chargers for trucks were deployed in the
United States and Europe, marking a key technological milestone. Enabling such
higher-powered charging requires timely planning, permitting and investment to
upgrade power grids. Both depot and public charging frequently require grid
reinforcements to enable ultra-fast charging, sometimes in remote locations. Even
if overnight charging in depots or service stations is relatively slow, the grid
connection must be able to handle the parallel charging of multiple vehicles.
Coupling megawatt chargers with battery storage can alleviate grid stress,
reducing the need for power grid upgrades and accelerating megawatt charger
deployments. This approach could be important for speeding up the roll-out of
electric trucks, and has also been announced for ultra-fast charging of cars (see
the Box above).

National statistics on HDV-specific chargers are not readily available for most
countries. However, there is evidence that in China, one company alone had built
about 1 350 charging stations with over 5 500 charging points for electric trucks
by the end of October 2024, each with a charging capacity of more than 320 kW.
Based on data compiled by Atlas EV Hub, the United States reported around 500
operational HDV charging points in October 2024 – about double the number at
the beginning of 2024 – and over 1 000 more are planned. Less than one-third of
the existing chargers are accessible to the public, but around 85% of all planned
chargers, including at high-power charging stations, are expected to be publicly
accessible.

2
Between 20% and 80% of the battery state of charge.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

The expansion of HDV charging infrastructure extends beyond these major EV

markets. In India, the PM E-DRIVE scheme proposes installing 1 800 fast
chargers for e-buses in larger cities and on selected highways. Elsewhere, Qatar’s
Public Bus Infrastructure Program has built over 650 charging points for electric
buses to support the country’s goal of reaching 100% public bus electrification by
2030. In Latin America, countries are collaborating to build EV recharging
corridors, including for buses and trucks, and the first truck charging station in
Peru was opened at the Port of Callao in 2024. In Singapore, Volt has been
awarded a contract to develop and operate an 80-point direct-current charging
hub for electric taxis, buses and other EVs. Meanwhile, Malaysian government-
owned Prasarana has issued tenders for electric bus procurement and charging
infrastructure deployment.

Industry players are teaming up to deploy charging for

heavy trucks
HDV charging infrastructure is still in its early stages and requires significant
investments, but it is gaining momentum. Private companies are joining forces to
expand charging networks. In the United States, Greenlane – a joint venture
between Daimler Truck North America, NextEra Energy and BlackRock –
announced plans for a commercial EV charging corridor from Los Angeles to Las
Vegas, with over 100 chargers. Meanwhile, DTNA, Navistar and Volvo teamed up
to establish the Powering America’s Commercial Transportation coalition to
accelerate deployment of chargers for medium- and heavy-duty trucks.

In Europe in 2024, Milence, a joint venture between Daimler Truck, TRATON and
Volvo, presented its plans to establish a European charging network of 70 hubs,
accounting for more than 570 high-power (some > 1 MW) charging points by the
end of 2025. The company has previously announced the goal to reach 1 700
charging points across Europe by 2027. In addition, [Link] and MAN Truck & Bus
are collaborating to set up around 400 electric truck charging stations in 170
different locations in Europe, as part of a project that has received EUR 45 million
in EU funding. The BP subsidiary Pulse, which today owns the majority of truck
charging stations in Germany, also announced its co-operation with the Polish
charging infrastructure manufacturer Ekoenergetyka, although the terms of the
collaboration have not yet been disclosed. Various project partners are
collaborating under the CLOSER platform to support electrified logistics, including
to develop a Scandinavian charging network for electric trucks.

International programmes and initiatives can also support the advancement of

HDV charging. Zero-Emission Vehicle Infrastructure Support and Expansion
(ZEVWISE) leads the Global Green Road Corridors Initiative, aiming to develop
at least ten green road corridors worldwide by 2026, with the latest two new
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

corridors announced at COP29. These corridors aim to deploy sufficient charging

infrastructures along key routes connecting industrial hubs, ports and cities, and
focus on creating replicable models for infrastructure deployment and financing,
aiming to accelerate global deployment. The Kuehne Climate Center and Smart
Freight Centre have also initiated the Green Freight Support Program in Eastern
Africa.

Heavy-duty vehicle charging outlook

Charging capacity for trucks and buses increases more
than fivefold by 2030
Just as for charging LDVs, overnight charging tends to be the most attractive
option for buses and trucks, as it requires lower power and is typically cheaper.
This is especially the case among early adopters. While public or opportunity
charging infrastructure for electric HDVs is limited, electric fleet owners and/or
operators typically choose to install depot chargers at close to a one-to-one ratio
to allow the fleet to charge concurrently during the night. Of course, to enable
longer daily driving ranges, en route or other opportunity chargers (such as at
terminal bus stops or highway service stations) are needed to expand the
applications that can be met by electric HDVs.

Heavy-duty vehicle charger stock and capacity in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2024-
2030

Stock Capacity
6 0.6
Million charging points

TW

5 0.5

4 0.4

3 0.3

2 0.2

1 0.1

0 0.0

2024 Additions (2025-2030) 2030 2024 Additions (2025-2030) 2030

Bus - depot Bus - opportunity Truck - depot Truck - opportunity

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: Charger stock in 2024 is estimated based on the number of electric buses and trucks.

In the STEPS, the stock of charging points for electric HDVs increases from
around 1 million in 2024 to over 5 million in 2030. The vast majority of charging
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

points remain located at depots through this decade in this scenario. The stock of
chargers for trucks grows more quickly than for buses, increasing from a third of
all HDV chargers to almost 60% in 2030 in the STEPS.

The charging capacity for electric HDVs grows similarly to the stock – increasing
about five times to 2030 in the STEPS to reach more than 500 GW. Given that the
role for higher-power opportunity chargers is expected to remain limited this
decade, the overall charging capacity for HDVs remains around 100 kW per
electric HDV.

Despite the relatively low power rating for depot chargers – typically 50-150 kW
compared to 350 kW to 1 MW+ for some opportunity charging – grid upgrades at
depots may be needed, especially for larger fleets. Grid upgrades can take from
one to several years, depending (in particular) on the voltage. Anticipatory
planning is needed to ensure adequate availability of HDV chargers in the
medium- to long-term.

Daytime charging of HDVs may also be suited to renewables, such as solar PV,
which would support integration and ease grid demand. Co-locating HDV charging
stations with battery storage can also be a way to ease grid infrastructure
requirements and accelerate the deployment of HDV charging, especially in the
context of record-low battery prices. Battery-swapping and electric road systems
are other options being explored that could reduce impacts on the grid.

Government policies and support will be needed to ensure a smooth roll-out of

charging for HDVs. The EU AFIR includes increasing coverage requirements for
HDV charging points with a power output of at least 350 kW along the TEN-T
Network starting in 2025. According to the Action Plan for the EU automotive
sector, the European Commission will make another EUR 570 million available
under the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Facility towards the roll-out of alternative
fuels infrastructure in 2025 and 2026, with a particular focus on HDVs.

Smart charging and vehicle-grid integration

Smart charging gains popularity, bolstered by smart
charging roll-out mandates
Electric vehicles represent less than 1% of global electricity demand today, but
their contribution to power demand is affected by charging behaviour. Depending
on local grid conditions, EV charging can put stress on electricity grids. Extra
demand from unmanaged EV charging during peak times can mean grids need to
enlist more carbon-intensive power plants and may increase electricity prices for
households using electricity at these times. As a result, governments, utilities and
private companies have started to develop and deploy technologies to enable
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

smart charging. Smart chargers can be connected to the internet and accessed
remotely, allowing for controlled scheduling. When used in conjunction with
differentiated tariffs, smart chargers enable EV owners to charge flexibly and take
advantage of the cheapest tariffs under different pricing regimes (e.g. time-of-use,
dynamic real-time, critical peak pricing, etc.), while providing demand-side
flexibility for grid operators. Smart charging can also support EV battery health,
such as by adjusting the maximum charging rate to avoid overcharging and
excessive heat, which can degrade batteries over time.

Smart charging is advancing towards wider commercial deployment. The

United Kingdom was among the first countries to mandate that all new home
charge points for EVs must have smart functionality from 2022. Prior to this, only
52% of UK EV owners with home charging capabilities had a smart charger. The
EU AFIR specifies that all chargers that are installed or renovated from April 2024
must support smart charging. China has longstanding policies on smart charging
roll-out from previous Five-Year Plans on Electric Vehicle Deployment, with newer
chargers now having smart charging capabilities. Elsewhere, Brazil is taking
strides in expanding EV infrastructure through its “electrocenters” – charging hubs
designed to optimise power distribution to ensure grid resilience while
accommodating multiple vehicles simultaneously, launched in March 2024.

Multiple actors are involved in efforts to implement

vehicle-to-grid solutions
While smart charging enables EV owners to choose when to charge their EVs, bi-
directional charging provides them with the opportunity to discharge power from
their EVs to their homes (vehicle-to-home, or V2H), buildings (V2B), or other
appliance loads (V2L) and the grid (V2G). Bi-directional charging can be used to
recharge car batteries when electricity is cheapest, and then sell electricity back
to the grid (V2G) when prices are higher. It can also be used to discharge car
batteries to provide emergency or off-grid power supply to buildings or loads (V2B,
V2H, V2L).

For widespread application of V2G, multiple legal and technological hurdles need
to be overcome so that demand-side flexibility from EVs can work effectively for
the maximum benefit of EV owners and grid operators. Progress across markets
is currently mixed due to the complexity of the requirements needed along the
V2G pipeline.

As a first step, smart chargers that can schedule charging and discharging from
the grid must be deployed across the EV charging network. Secondly, EVs must
be capable of bi-directional charging. Today there are over 30 bi-directional-
capable models available, an increase of nearly 20% from 2023. Bi-directional
models now make up more than one in eight new electric cars sold, with models
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

such as the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and 6; BYD Dolphin and Yuan Plus; MG 4/Mulan and
Kia EV6 among the most popular. In addition, OEMs have begun to work together
to address common challenges associated with V2G integration, such as through
ChargeScape, which brings together Nissan, BMW, Ford and Honda.

Different market structures will also be needed to support the application of V2G
technologies. For example, differentiated tariffs provide financial incentives for EV
owners to optimise their charging. Aggregators and ancillary service markets act
as middle management between grid distribution operators, to provide bids and
pool flexible EVs and other storage devices so that grid operators can then
purchase this flexibility. To facilitate the transmission of electricity between these
market aggregators, sufficient management of EV batteries connecting to the grid
must also be supported by adequate grid infrastructure so as to avoid grid
congestion and enable bi-directional charging.

Demonstration trials of V2G projects are currently underway in markets including

Australia, China, Germany, Korea and the United Kingdom, where the
government is funding 20 V2G projects involving around 600 cars. A
demonstration project launched in November 2024 in the Netherlands represents
one of the largest V2G car-sharing services in Europe to date, using 500 Renault
5 E-Tech BEVs. In 2023, the Korea Electric Power Corporation was involved in a
100-vehicle V2G pilot programme. It found that EVs effectively contributed to peak
shaving, and that battery degradation was minimal, but further refinement of
financial incentives would be needed to make the V2G system financially attractive
to a wide consumer base. In August 2024, China’s National Development and
Reform Commission issued a notice promoting the piloting of large-scale
applications of V2G interactions, and selected 5 cities to kick off at least 50 V2G
pilot projects. The notice also established grid communication standards for EV
charging equipment that enables V2G bi-directional charging. A national road map
for bi-directional charging has been developed by Australia, which suggests that
adopting V2G in just 10% of Australia’s projected EVs could help meet more than
one-third of the national electricity market’s storage needs in 2030. As of February
2025, a small number of Australian households have adopted V2G technology
and are selling power back to the grid. In the United States, in March 2025,
ComEd, an energy provider in northern Illinois, partnered with Nuvve to launch a
V2G pilot programme focusing on electric school buses.

Policy measures targeting bi-directional charging are increasingly being

introduced in different markets worldwide. In the European Union, updated AFIR
requirements will include standards that enable bi-directional charging, starting in
2027. In the United States, the Federal Highway Administration previously
mandated via the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (2021) that chargers
must conform to and possess hardware capable of implementing both smart
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

charging and bi-directional charging for compatible vehicles (ISO 15118-20). At

the state level, California enacted legislation to promote V2G adoption in
September 2024.

Ensuring compatibility and interoperability of the chargers and EVs involved are
the final challenges. The CHAdeMO EV charging system first introduced V2G
communication in 2010 and has been the first mover in this domain. Since then,
the charging protocols adopted by the CHAdeMo Association have continued to
evolve as technology has developed. Several organisations have also been
working to define appropriate standards and use cases. Efforts to standardise
protocols and grid codes are ongoing through the Electric Vehicle Technology
Collaboration Programme Task 53: Interoperability of Bidirectional Charging. In
addition, the International Electrotechnical Commission has published use cases
on how EVs might provide distributed energy resource functionality.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

Progress in power system measures to enable smart charging and vehicle-to-grid capabilities, 2025

Market access and legal frameworks Technology availability

Ancillary services
Differentiated Local flexibility (DSOs
Aggregators (electricity market
Country tariffs procure local flexibility Smart
(grouping multiple services related to V2G model
(e.g. time-of-use, to reduce congestion, Standards and
users that frequency control, charging
dynamic real-time, minimise outages and legal definitions availability
combine loads or voltage control, and deployment
critical peak allow for deferral of grid
generation) emergency and
pricing) expansion investments)
restoration plans)

Brazil
Chile
China
Denmark
Finland
France
Indonesia
Italy
Japan
Korea
Netherlands
South Africa
United Kingdom
United States
Thailand
Notes: DSO = distribution system operator. Evaluation overview: green = measures in place; orange = field test/pilot phase, or measures announced; red = no framework. United States
assessment is based on an aggregate of state rules and aggregators in the country (New York Independent System Operator, Massachusetts, Maryland)
Sources: IEA (2023), Facilitating Decarbonisation in Emerging Economies through Smart Charging; IEA (2024), Enhancing Indonesia's Power System; IEA (2024), Meeting Power System
Flexibility Needs in China by 2030; Mobility House (2023), The V2G status quo - how much progress has been made in which country?; United Kingdom, Department for Transport (2018),
Government funded electric car charge points to be smart by July 2019; Yeboah, D. [Link]. (2023), Tariff Development for Smart EV Charging for Households; Korea, Ministry of Trade, Industry
and Energy (2023), Act No.19437; IRENA (2019), Innovation outlook: Smart charging for electric vehicles; Chile, Ministry of Energy (2022) Approval of regulation on establishing interoperability
of EV charging systems; Wood Mackenzie (2024) Ancillary services in Asia-Pacific; Otsuki, T. & Ogura, T. (2019), EV Charging Standards and V2X.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

Shaping human behaviour around charging will be key to unlocking the full
benefits of electric vehicles
Patterns of human behaviour will have a big impact on how EVs affect the grid. Different
charging habits will affect the costs of charging, grid congestion and reliability, but with
the right incentives to align charging behaviour with the needs of the grid, EVs could
become a major source of flexibility and demand response.
Charging behaviour also affects emissions. Many electric grids – such as those in
California, Germany, and Spain – have deployed large amounts of solar power, which
peaks around midday. If EV charging uses this solar power, while avoiding peak load
periods such as early evening when people return home after work, EVs could help
stabilise the grid while also maximising emissions reductions. In California, electric cars
charged overnight emit 76% less CO2 than conventional ICE vehicles – but EVs charged
around midday go much further, slashing emissions 95% relative to ICEs.

Annual well-to-wheel emissions from gasoline and electric cars in California, 2024

Gasoline ICEV (baseline): BEV charged overnight: BEV charged midday:

5.1 t CO2 1.2 t CO2 (-76%) 0.3 t CO2 (-95%)

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Source: Emissions estimated by UC San Diego based on data from the California Air Resources Board.

Social science research is now looking at how to influence behaviour in ways that help
EVs become a reliable resource for the grid and cut emissions. Researchers from the
University of California San Diego (UC San Diego), working with the Electric Power
Research Institute and others, are using randomised controlled trials at UC San Diego’s
network of over 500 charging points. Experiments that derived from 1 200 drivers are
assessing whether interventions change habits in the real world.
In one study, they told drivers how midday charging reduces emissions and found that
drivers responded by reducing their campus charging at times other than midday by 5%.
While modest, this effect is similar in scale to other kinds of informational “nudges” studied
with other behaviours that affect the grid, such as household energy choices. A key issue
the research team explored is that many EV drivers have little prior knowledge about
charging costs and emissions impacts. Information helps fill that void.
A second project offered discounts for campus charging to test drivers’ willingness to
relocate their charging. In a twist, incentives to charge on campus actually led drivers to

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

charge more (7%) in the early morning and overnight, rather than during the midday solar
peak. The findings suggest that scarcity of chargers was the reason for this unexpected
behaviour – drivers expected that the discounts would increase competition for scarce
chargers and tended to hoard access as a result.
Some recent preliminary findings suggest that network quality also affects charging
behaviour. When drivers have poor charging experiences, they are reluctant to return.
This points to the increasing need to focus on the quality of charging networks, not just
the quantity of charge points. Some policy makers have begun this shift, such as in
Germany.
As the number of EVs on the road increases, choices about charging will have bigger
impacts on the grid. That raises the stakes for learning how to get people to charge in
more optimal ways, which will often mean at offices and other locations away from home
at differing times of the day. Using real-world charging data to test business models will
be vital for sustainably building the networks to support such charging.
Transport flexibility through methods such as smart and managed charging has relevance
around the world. For example, in a case where EVs represent 80% of the vehicle stock
in Europe, and over 40% of final energy demand is met by electricity, around a quarter of
this electricity demand has some flexibility potential. Over a third of this flexibility potential
comes from EVs, where optimised smart charging and changes in charging behaviour
can shift peak demand away from the congestion and higher emissions that occur during
evening hours to the middle of the day when the availability of renewables, especially
solar, to supply the grid would be higher than the electricity demand without the additional
charging load.

Potential for transport demand response flexibility across Europe based on an 80%
electric vehicle stock share.
European daily load curve
800
GW

Transport: flexible
700
Other: flexible
600

500 Transport: non-flexible

400
Other: non-flexible
300
Total demand with
200
flexibility
100 Total demand without
flexibility
0
0h 12h 24h

IEA. CC BY 4.0
Notes: In this example, over 40% of total final energy demand in Europe is electrified.

Source: Adapted from the World Energy Outlook 2024.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

Innovative charging solutions

While cabled charging is expected to remain the predominant technology for
charging EVs into the foreseeable future, alternative solutions are also making
headway. Battery swapping systems, for example, have been around in some
form for over a century, though use has been somewhat limited, but deployment
is now rapidly growing in certain regions and segments. Battery swapping is
proving especially successful in commercial applications such as delivery or ride-
hailing services, where downtime for charging can be costly.

Battery swapping can offer benefits by reducing the upfront cost of EVs; improving
battery longevity, especially with professional handling of swaps; alleviating stress
on power grids; and facilitating reuse and recycling efforts when batteries remain
under the ownership of the swap company. However, these systems may increase
overall demand for batteries and would benefit from design standardisation that
could be difficult to achieve at large scales in some markets. Standardising
batteries could also inhibit innovation, such as the development of cell-to-chassis
architectures that can improve EV efficiency by reducing the weight of battery
systems. The benefits of standardisation for battery swapping must be weighed
against the risk of constraining market competition and innovation.

Dynamic charging – which takes place while vehicles are moving – is also being
explored. This can be accomplished through conductive charging, such as using
overhead catenary lines, which are already commonly used to power transport
systems like trams and light rail systems, or through inductive, wireless charging,
which is at an earlier stage of development and deployment. Both systems can be
deployed at strategic locations for stationary charging, such as at bus stops or
logistics centres where vehicles already spend time idle.

These systems and other innovations, such as solar-coupled charging systems,

can play a role in making charging more convenient and/or a source of flexible
demand for renewables, as well as reducing charging-related stress on grids.

Battery swapping for 2/3Ws is increasingly popular in

emerging markets
Battery swapping systems for 2/3Ws offer a number of benefits, including
improving affordability, which can be particularly helpful for consumers in
developing economies, where upfront costs can be a barrier. The “battery-as-a-
service” subscription model can lower the upfront investment required for an
electric 2W, as the battery typically accounts for around 40% of the total price. In
terms of operational costs, for the amount of range provided, battery-swap-
enabled 2/3Ws are around 20-50% cheaper than petrol 2/3Ws, and the economic
case improves as daily driving distance increases. Battery swapping can also offer

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time savings. While at least 20 minutes (and typically several hours) is required
for recharging an electric 2W, battery swapping can be performed in just 2-5
minutes – approximately the same amount of time needed to refuel a gasoline
motorcycle. It can eliminate the need for home charging, making electric 2/3Ws
more accessible to drivers with limited electricity access. In addition, in countries
with underdeveloped power grids, the more centralised load/demand
management offered by some battery swap stations can be beneficial.

Thailand, for example, is targeting 1 450 battery swapping stations by 2030. In

Indonesia, the start-up SWAP Energi currently operates around 1 500 electric 2W
battery swap stations in the country. The Indonesian government has set the
target of about 67 000 battery swap stations, for either motorcycles or cars, by
2030.

Battery swapping has also taken off in India in the past 5 years, thanks to
technological improvements for batteries and falling costs coinciding with a rise in
gasoline prices. Electric 2/3Ws – sold without the battery – have now become
accessible even to low-income buyers. Battery Smart is India’s largest battery
swap operator for 2/3Ws and reached 1 000 stations in April 2024. Indian
company Sun Mobility is also growing fast, with more than 630 swapping stations
in 19 Indian cities. There are also plans to deploy 10 000 Piaggio electric 3Ws with
swappable batteries in the country, alongside 300 new swapping stations.

In Chinese Taipei, the market for electric 2/3Ws has grown significantly due to
strong demand and government support, accompanied by an innovative,
widespread battery swapping mechanism that has become a global leader.
Domestic battery swapping pioneer Gogoro now has around 13 000 battery swap
stations worldwide, each roughly the size of 2 vending machines and able to hold
around 30 scooter batteries. In the city of Taipei, there are now more Gogoro
battery swapping stations for 2Ws than gas stations. A total 2 500 Gogoro stations
use artificial intelligence (AI) and can act as a virtual power plant – drawing power
from the grid when usage is low, and returning it when usage is high, and even
supplying back-up power in emergencies. After the country was hit by an
earthquake in April 2024, battery swap stations made 6 MW of power available,
enough to power thousands of homes. However, Gogoro has struggled to find a
sustainable business model and benefits from government purchase subsidies.

In Africa, Spiro, an electric motorbike manufacturer and battery swapping provider,

has put over 22 000 e-bikes on the road across a number of different countries.
Kenyan company Arc Ride runs a battery-as-a-service model for 2W battery
swapping, with over 140 stations, mostly around Nairobi. Kenya is also a target
for Rwandan Ampersand’s expansion plans, and Roam is setting up solar-
powered fast battery charging and swapping for electric motor cycles in the
country.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

Battery swapping systems for 2/3Ws are still in their infancy in Europe, a far
smaller market for 2/3Ws, although the supermarket chain Kaufland is operating
swapping stations for batteries for small electric cars or electric 2Ws in Romania
in co-operation with the e-Mobility Rentals start-up. Honda is also launching
battery swap stations in Sweden for their electric scooters.

Greater standardisation and interoperability would be needed to fully reap the

benefits of battery swapping and reduce the need for costly charging
infrastructure. This would also enable the aggregation of demand for electric 2/3W
batteries and help to guide industry development. In 2022, various Japanese
OEMs established a new company, Gachaco, to offer a battery sharing and
swapping services for standardised, exchangeable 2W batteries. More recently,
in 2024, Thailand launched the Thailand Standard Swappable Battery Consortium
for Small e-Mobility to work towards elevating the national standard to the level of
international standards.

Battery swapping for cars is growing in China and

entering new markets
Chinese EV manufacturer NIO built its first battery swap station for electric cars in
2018 and has remained the market leader ever since. By the end of 2024, NIO
had built over 3 000 battery swap stations in China and 50 in Europe. In just 2
years, the company more than doubled its battery swap stations in China. In an
effort to co-ordinate battery standards and battery swapping technologies, and
maximise the utilisation of NIO’s network, the company has agreements with
Geely Group, JAC Group and Chery Automobile, which together represented 15%
of electric car sales in China in 2024.

Battery maker CATL introduced its battery swap solution, EVOGO, in 2022. The
company has since announced the ambition to reach 3 000 stations by 2027, and
eventually 10 000 stations. In 2024, CATL and ride-hailing company DiDi formed
a joint venture to build out battery swap stations and swappable vehicles, and at
the end of the year, CATL launched a Battery Swap Ecosystem with nearly 100
partners to move towards the standardisation of EV battery swapping. The
programme also aims to build 30 000 battery swap stations that will also work as
battery-to-grid energy storage facilities.

In 2024, Ample announced it was partnering with ENEOS to bring battery swap
stations to Kyoto, in a first for Japan. Ample is also partnering with Stellantis,
beginning with a programme to provide battery swap stations in Madrid for Fiat
500e cars in the Free2Move car-sharing service.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

For trucks, battery swapping can offer savings in terms

of reducing charging time
As of June 2023, there were around 400 battery swap stations for trucks in China.
While battery swapping for heavy-duty trucks is still at an early stage of
deployment, it has the potential to support faster uptake of electric trucks by
extending battery lifespan and reducing the wait time for charging, thus enhancing
efficiency for commercial operations. For example, even electric truck batteries
large enough to enable daily mileage suitable for long-distance transportation can
be exchanged in around 10 minutes – almost as fast as refuelling a diesel truck.
Battery swapping for trucks can offer greater benefit in terms of preserving battery
health compared to other EV segments; the constant use and long distances
travelled by trucks result in increased battery degradation, which is compounded
by reliance on fast-charging solutions that further accelerate degradation.

Battery swapping is particularly well-suited to fleets of identical trucks with heavy

operational demands, operating on well-defined routes. These fleets could justify
the significant investment required in automated swapping facilities and additional
batteries. As such, battery swapping has been deployed for trucks used in short-
haul applications at ports, mining sites, urban and even regional logistics,
particularly in China where sales of swap-capable electric trucks reached almost
30 000 last year. Elsewhere, Rio Tinto announced in 2024 they would trial eight
electric dump trucks with battery swap technology for their mining operations in
Mongolia. In Japan, field tests using courier services also began in 2024 for a
Mitsubishi Fuso and Ample truck battery swap demonstration.

Technological advances have enhanced the safety, reliability and convenience of

battery swapping systems for trucks in recent years. Intelligent systems can now
automatically assess battery status and perform the swapping service. In China,
new policies were announced in 2024, enacting safety standards for swap-
capable HDVs and establishing technical specification systems. However, in other
parts of the world, the required level of standardisation may make it difficult for
battery swapping to compete with conventional plug-in charging, especially for
certain heavy-duty truck segments.

In Europe, the region’s first fully automated heavy-duty electric truck battery
swapping station opened in Germany in 2023. Swappable batteries are also being
used as hybrid solutions for trucks, for example in German company Trailer
Dynamics’ electric trailer with a swappable battery. Similarly, in the United States,
Revoy has launched a battery swapping solution that can integrate with semi-
trucks, offering up to 235 miles of range, which can essentially turn a diesel truck
into a hybrid vehicle, or serve as a range extender for an electric truck. While

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battery swapping demonstrations and technology developments are ongoing,

outside of China, manufacturers have been reluctant to separate battery
ownership from vehicles, which would disrupt traditional revenue streams, and to
standardise, which has been crucial to China's success.

Electric road systems are being tested across major EV

markets
Electric road systems (ERS) enable vehicles to receive electricity while moving
using one of three main technologies: conductive overhead (catenary) lines,
conductive contact rails beneath the vehicles, and inductive wireless systems
embedded in the road. Conductive contact rails and inductive systems can charge
both light and heavy vehicles, while overhead lines are used for heavy vehicles.
In all cases, vehicles must be equipped with appropriate pantographs or receivers.

ERS allow for smaller batteries and could therefore be a cost-effective solution for
electrifying the road sector, especially for heavy-duty trucks that follow well-
defined routes, while ERS-enabled smaller batteries can increase a commercial
vehicle’s payload and profitability. Research has highlighted the benefits of
wireless charging of buses to resolve space constraints at depots and to enable
en route charging that can make battery electric buses more comparable to
gasoline fuelled buses in terms of operations. Similar benefits exist for catenary
charging solutions strategically located at bus stops. However, ERS infrastructure
is expensive to install – depending on the type of system, the cost per kilometre
could range from EUR 1.5 million for overhead catenary to over EUR 3 million for
inductive charging.

Test projects for electric road technology are ongoing worldwide, exploring both
inductive and conductive methods. Sweden has been a global pioneer, while
projects are also being undertaken in the United States, China and Japan. The
United States primarily focuses on inductive technology, while Germany and
France, historically focused on conductive technology, are now also testing
inductive systems. Some of the earliest test projects in Europe, particularly in
Sweden, have now been retired.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

Selected operational and planned electric road system projects

Location Description

Trial of pantograph system with trucks launched in 2023 as part of Shanxi

Datong, China project. Project developed by CRRC Datong (part of China National Railway
Locomotive & Rolling Stock Industry Corporation) and research partners.

Xinjiang province,
Plans to electrify more than 1 800 km of highway launched in mid-2023.
China
120 m long high-power dynamic wireless charging road system unveiled at
Jilin province, China
FAW Sci-Tech innovation base in Changchun in 2023.

eRoad Mont Blanc is a 1 km conductive contact rails-based project launched in

Chamonix Mont Blanc 2023. It uses Alstom’s ground-level power supply system and is funded by the
Valley, French Government and European Union. Works on the 420 m demonstrator
France carriageway completed in December 2024; System and vehicle validation
checks to be undertaken in 2025.

A 2 km section of the A10 motorway has been equipped with Elonroad’s

Greater Paris, France conductive rail charging system, in partnership with VINCI Autoroutes. Testing
expected to begin in 2025.

Schleswig-Holstein, A 5 km e-Highway field trial using catenary lines launched in 2019 has enabled
Germany pantograph-equipped trucks to cover more than 55 000 km.

17 km overhead catenary system, installed by Siemens, in operation since May

Hessen, Germany
2019, with 11 trucks in operation (one BEV).

Baden-Württemberg, 3.4 km-long eWayBW overhead catenary system, supplied by Siemens, in

Germany operation since 2021 with five trucks in regular operation.

Bayern, Germany Planned electrified road system.

Rhein-Main/Rhein-
Lkw-Innovationscluster planned electrified road system.
Neckar, Germany
100-m E-Charge inductive charging track installed by ElectReon undergoing
Cologne, Germany
testing.
ELINA project by ElectReon with 1 km of induction charging to power an
Balingen, Germany
electric bus announced in 2022.
100-m ElectReon induction charging system to power an electric public bus in
Karlsruhe, Germany
the Port of Karlsruhe.

Bavaria, Germany Planned 1km ERS announced in 2022 as part of E|MPOWER pilot project.

Brescia, Italy Arena del Futuro test project uses 1km of induction charging.

Tests began in October 2023 on a system using embedded wire coils for
Kashiwa, Japan
inductive power transfer at traffic lights.
Induction charging installed by ElectReon to power an electric bus, with
Trondheim, Norway
funding from the Norwegian government.
In late 2023, the country’s first wireless charging road system entered
operation. Technology developer ElectReon is now partnering with parcel
United States delivery service UPS and electric truck manufacturer Xos to test both
stationary and dynamic wireless charging technologies for commercial
vehicles.

Construction of a test bed for wireless charging began in April 2024, with plans
Indiana, United States
to electrify a section of an Indiana interstate in the next 4-5 years.
Sources: IEA analysis and the International Council on Clean Transportation (2024) Market Spotlight.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle charging

Wide application of ERS faces many hurdles – besides the large investments required for
infrastructure development, vehicles must be adapted to the specific charging technology.
Governance can also be difficult, as ERS requires a market design appropriate for both the
transport and energy market, which have distinct regulatory regimes. The costs of ERS
must also be evaluated in the context of alternative charging systems: A 2024 report
commissioned by the Swedish government (which had previously announced ambitions to
build 3 000 km of electric roads by 2035) recommended against further expansion of ERS
in Sweden, in part as the development of batteries for EVs has progressed rapidly. Plans
to build the world's first permanent electrified road, which would have connected
Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmo, were paused in 2023.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle batteries

7. Electric vehicle batteries

Trends in battery demand

Global battery demand for the energy sector hit the
1 TWh milestone in 2024

Electric cars remain the main driver of battery demand, but

demand for trucks nearly doubled
Battery demand in the energy sector, for both EV batteries and storage
applications, reached the historical milestone of 1 TWh in 2024. Demand for one
average week alone in 2024 exceeded the total demand for an entire year just a
decade earlier. Demand was largely driven by growth in EV sales, as demand for
EV batteries grew to over 950 GWh – 25% more than in 2023. Electric cars remain
the principal factor behind EV battery demand, accounting for over 85%.
Compared to 2023, the sector whose demand grew the most was electric trucks,
growing over 75% in 2024 to reach nearly 3% of global EV battery demand.
Electric truck battery demand was driven by growth in China, but demand also
ramped up in Europe (about 25%), which accounted for about 10% of the global
total.

Electric vehicle battery demand by mode and region, 2018-2024

Battery demand by mode Share of battery demand by region
1 000 100%
GWh/year

800 80%

600 60%

400 40%

200 20%

0 0%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

LDV Two/three-wheeler Bus Truck China European Union United States

Other EMDEs Other AEs
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: LDV = light-duty vehicle, including cars and vans; EMDEs = Emerging markets and developing economies; AEs =
Advanced economies. Battery demand is defined here as the volume-weighted average battery size multiplied by vehicle
sales by mode and region. It reflects the batteries installed in vehicles sold in each region, and not the battery demand for
vehicles manufactured in each region. Electric vehicle and battery stockpiling are excluded from the analysis.
Source: IEA analysis based on EV Volumes.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle batteries

In 2024, EV battery demand grew by over 30% in China, and by 20% in the
United States, in stark contrast with the European Union, where demand stalled.
Battery demand in the United States nearly matched that of the European Union
in 2024, in part as a result of its approximately 25% larger battery size per EV.
Emerging markets and developing economies other than China continued to
represent only a small share of global battery demand, reaching nearly 5% in
2024. Nevertheless, their share has doubled since 2022, underpinned by
sustained growth in Southeast Asia, India and Brazil.

Average electric car battery pack size by region and powertrain, 2015-2024
100
kWh

80

60

40

20

0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

China European Union United States PHEV

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. Solid lines represent the sales-weighted average battery pack size for battery
electric cars, while dashed lines indicate the same for plug-in hybrid electric cars.
Source: IEA analysis based on EV Volumes.

Outlook for battery demand

Electric vehicle battery demand jumps more than
threefold by 2030
EV battery demand continues to grow, and is expected to reach more than 3 TWh
in 2030 in the STEPS, up from about 1 TWh in 2024. While electric cars will remain
the primary driver of battery demand, other modes are set to gain market share.
Notably, the contribution of electric trucks to EV battery demand triples by 2030 to
reach more than 8%, up from nearly 3% in 2024.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle batteries

Battery demand for electric vehicles by mode and region in the Stated Policies
Scenario, 2024-2030
By mode By region
3.5 100%
TWh/year

2.8 80%

2.1 60%

1.4 40%

0.7 20%

0.0 0%
LDV Truck Bus 2/3W Total 2024 2030
2024 2030
China European Union
Light-duty vehicle Truck Bus Two/three-wheeler United States Other EMDEs
Other AEs

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: LDV = light-duty vehicle, including cars and vans; 2/3W = two/three-wheeler; EMDEs = emerging markets and
developing economies; AEs = advanced economies. Battery demand is defined here as the volume-weighted average
battery size multiplied by vehicle sales by mode and region. It reflects the batteries installed in vehicles sold in each region,
and not the battery demand for vehicles manufactured in each region. Electric vehicle and battery stockpiling are excluded
from the analysis.

Battery demand is also set to become more geographically diverse. In the STEPS,
emerging markets and developing economies other than China are expected to
double their share of EV battery demand, from nearly 5% in 2024 to 10% in 2030.
The share of global demand in the European Union and other advanced
economies, such as the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan and Korea, is also
projected to grow, while the share of the United States is projected to decline from
about 13% in 2024 to less than 10% by 2030. Meanwhile, China’s share of global
battery demand declines from 60% in 2024 to just under 50% by 2030, although it
remains by far the single largest source of demand.

Battery industry trends

Chinese manufacturers are increasing their competitive
advantage

Low critical mineral prices and intense competition drove down

battery prices in 2024, but China’s price advantage is widening
Prices for lithium-ion battery packs fell 20% in 2024 – the largest drop since 2017
– as a result of low critical mineral prices and battery margins being squeezed
through competition, predominantly in China. Lithium prices, in particular, dropped

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle batteries

nearly 20% in 2024, reaching similar prices to those at the end of 2015, despite
lithium demand in 2024 being about six times bigger than in 2015.

Low critical mineral prices are primarily driven by supply surplus, which is making
it difficult for some mining companies to compete, thus increasing the level of
supply chain concentration among established players. This surplus is expected
to persist over the next few years, but low prices could discourage future
investments and might cause supply shortages for lithium and nickel by 2030. In
addition, the high geographical and ownership concentration of their supply chains
may cause market distortions, increasing market risk.

An undersupply of lithium would push up prices, to the benefit of the mining sector
but to the detriment of battery and EV makers, as well as final consumers. The
recycling sector, which could help curb cost increases, would also benefit from
higher mineral prices. However, due to feedstock limitations, it will take about a
decade before recycling has a significant impact on reducing primary mineral
demand (see the Box on battery recycling below).

Technology innovation, particularly related to sodium-ion batteries or direct lithium

extraction, could be instrumental in reducing the risk of lithium undersupply and
its potential impact, and avoiding price spikes similar to those seen in 2022.
Additionally, vertical integration through upstream investments can help battery
suppliers to lower production costs while safeguarding against the risk of volatile
critical mineral prices.

Price of selected battery metals (left) and lithium-ion battery packs (right), 2015-2025
500 100
Index (2015 = 100)
Index (1 Jan. 2017 = 100)

400 80

300 60

200 40

100 20

0 0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Cobalt sulphate Graphite sphere Lithium carbonate

Nickel sulphate Battery pack price (right)

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: “Battery pack price” refers to the volume-weighted average pack price of lithium-ion batteries across the electric
vehicles and battery storage sectors. 2025 refers to data up to the end of March 2025.
Sources: IEA analysis based on data from Bloomberg and Bloomberg New Energy Finance Lithium-Ion Price Survey
(2024).

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle batteries

Battery pack prices fell in all markets, but the extent of the drop varied significantly,
with the fastest declines seen in China, where prices fell nearly 30% in 2024,
compared to 10-15% in Europe and the United States. This widened the gap
between battery prices in China and the rest of the world, increasing the
competitive advantage of Chinese EV and battery producers. The faster pace of
battery cost reduction and innovation in China has been enabled by fierce
competition that has driven down profit margins for most producers (though not
all), at the same time as driving up manufacturing efficiency and yields, as well as
access to a large skilled workforce, and battery supply chain integration.

Battery chemistry also plays an important role, with lithium iron phosphate (LFP)
batteries – the main battery chemistry used in China – being almost 30% cheaper
per kilowatt-hour (kWh) than lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide (NMC)
batteries, which remain the most widely used batteries in the United States and
Europe. NMC batteries still provide an energy density advantage, though the gap
has narrowed in recent years. The energy density of LFP battery packs is about
one-fifth lower by mass (Wh/kg) and about one-third lower by volume (Wh/L) than
that of NMC packs. This is, however, partially offset by LFP’s ability to reach 100%
state of charge when required without significant degradation, whereas NMC
batteries are typically limited to 80% to preserve long-term performance.

The higher energy density of NMC batteries remains an advantage for applications
requiring longer ranges or operation in cold climates, where LFP technology is
typically less effective. However, LFP batteries have now reached a performance
level sufficient for most EV applications, making their lower cost a key advantage
for automakers aiming to mass markets.

Average battery pack price per watt-hour index by selected battery chemistry, region
and mode, 2021-2024
Battery price per kWh by chemistry Battery price per kWh by region Battery price per kWh
(World) (domestic and imports) by application (World, 2024)
200 180 400
Index (China 2021 = 100)

Index (BEV = 100)

Index (LFP 2021 = 100)

150
150 300
120
100 90 200
60
50 100
30
0 0 0
BEV PHEV BEV
2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024
Cars 2/3Ws
China Europe
LFP NCA NMC India North America Cell Pack 2023

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: LFP = lithium iron phosphate; NCA = lithium nickel cobalt aluminium oxide; NMC = lithium nickel manganese cobalt
oxide; BEV = battery electric vehicles; PHEV = plug-in hybrid electric vehicle; 2/3Ws = two- and three-wheelers. Battery
price refers to price per kWh for battery packs. Battery prices by region refer to the average battery price in a given region,
including locally produced batteries and imports across EVs and battery storage applications. Data for India is not available
between 2021 and 2023. Battery price by application refers to an average-sized vehicle.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle batteries

The battery price per kWh is also heavily dependent on the targeted application,
with BEVs enabling the lowest costs. In 2024, battery pack prices per kWh for
plug-in hybrid electric cars were more than three times those for battery electric
cars, because of their smaller size and greater power requirements. In 2024, the
average price of a 20 kWh PHEV battery pack – roughly the global sales-weighted
average for standard plug-in hybrids – was about the same as a 65 kWh BEV
battery pack, the global sales-weighted average for battery electric cars.

Pack components such as the battery management system are common to BEV
and PHEV battery packs, but given that PHEV packs are smaller, the price of such
components is spread across fewer battery cells, increasing the price per kWh.
PHEV battery packs may also require more complex designs to accommodate the
internal combustion engine, which increases their production cost. Additionally,
because of the smaller pack size, each battery cell in the PHEV pack has higher
power requirements to guarantee minimum acceleration standards while driving
in full electric mode. This demands different battery designs, such as thinner
electrodes, to improve battery power at the expense of its energy density, 1 further
increasing the cost per kWh compared to BEVs. Smaller battery sizes also
increase prices per kWh for 2/3W batteries.

Battery specifics, however, only determine prices for high volume. For instance, in
China, electric truck battery prices per kWh are slightly lower than for battery
electric cars, thanks to their larger size and therefore the reduced contribution of
the battery pack cost. Electric truck markets in other countries are far less mature,
and their battery price per kWh remains significantly higher – in 2024, prices were
more than double those in China.

Lithium iron phosphate batteries continue to gain market share,

and with them so do Chinese manufacturers
In 2024, LFP batteries made up nearly half of the global EV battery market,
underpinning the efforts of manufacturers to lower EV prices and production costs
in order to maintain or gain market share in an increasingly competitive market.
China leads on the uptake of LFP batteries, which met nearly three-quarters of its
domestic battery demand in 2024, and their share shows no sign of slowing down,
reaching 80% of batteries sold in November and December 2024.

In the United States, the share of LFP batteries used in EVs slightly contracted in
2024, remaining below 10%, which may be a result of tariffs on Chinese batteries.
In contrast, in the European Union, LFP battery adoption grew by about 90% for

1
“Energy density” is used here as a general term referring to the amount of energy stored per unit of mass or volume. It can
be divided into two specific metrics: specific energy (Wh/kg) and energy density (Wh/L). Specific energy influences the
additional weight the battery adds to the vehicle, thereby affecting its efficiency. Energy density determines the amount of
energy that can be stored in a battery pack of a given size, typically defined by the vehicle's chassis dimensions and shape.

PAGE | 139
Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle batteries

the second consecutive year to reach more than 10% of the EU EV market.
Notably, nearly all the LFP batteries for electric cars sold in Europe or the
United States were produced in China, which today has a de facto monopoly on
this type of battery. Market penetration of LFP batteries is moving even faster in
other markets. In Southeast Asia, Brazil and India, the share of electric car
batteries using LFP reached more than 50% in 2024. In Southeast Asia and Brazil,
LFP uptake is led by imports from China, mostly by BYD, whereas in India it is
driven by cars produced domestically, led by Tata Motors.

In the United States, the vast majority (three-quarters) of EVs equipped with LFP
batteries are produced domestically, whereas in the European Union nearly two-
thirds are imported from China. In both regions, LFP batteries are primarily
sourced from China, with Tesla playing a central role – accounting for 85% of LFP
battery-powered EVs produced in the United States and almost half of those sold
in the European Union. Of Tesla’s LFP EVs sold in the European Union, over half
are produced in Germany, with the remainder imported from China.

Share of electric vehicle battery sales by chemistry and region, 2022-2024

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024
World China European Union United States
Low-nickel High-nickel LFP

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: LFP = lithium iron phosphate. Low-nickel includes lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) 333, NMC442, and
NMC532. High-nickel includes NMC622, NMC721, NMC811, lithium nickel cobalt aluminium oxide (NCA), and lithium
nickel manganese cobalt aluminium oxide (NMCA). LFP also includes lithium iron manganese phosphate (LFMP). Battery
chemistry sales share is based on the battery capacity of EVs registered in the different regions. This calculation assumes
that 95% of electric trucks, buses and light commercial vehicles sold in China use LFP, and that 70% of electric trucks and
electric buses sold outside of China use high-nickel chemistries. Two/three-wheelers are excluded from the analysis.
Battery sales reflect the batteries installed in vehicles sold in each region, and not the battery demand for vehicles
manufactured in each region. Electric vehicle and battery stockpiling are excluded from the analysis.
Sources: IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes and China Automotive Battery Industry Innovation Alliance.

European OEMs are looking increasingly favourably on LFP batteries as a way of

reducing production costs and are therefore interested in securing more supplies.
Initiatives such as the recently announced joint venture between Stellantis and
CATL for an LFP battery manufacturing plant of up to 50 GWh in Spain could

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle batteries

therefore help the European automotive industry to reduce costs and increase its
competitiveness in the coming years. However, investments in LFP battery
manufacturing in Europe might suffer as a result of the recent proposition from the
Chinese government to limit exports of key battery technologies, including LFP
cathode production and lithium processing. Overall, renewed interest in the LFP
chemistry exacerbates the difficulties facing the European battery industry, which
has historically focused on NMC batteries.

The year 2024 was a challenging one for the European battery industry, with both
small and large producers suffering for different reasons. New players such as
Northvolt, which filed for bankruptcy in the United States and Sweden, faced
serious difficulties in scaling up production, leading to insufficient manufacturing
yield and high production costs. The case of Northvolt was further aggravated by
limited experience, ambitious expansion plans, and excessively widened scope,
leading to insufficient focus on scaling up high-quality battery cell production.
Falling battery prices worldwide also weighed heavily on small producers, which
have fewer resources and insufficient production volumes to withstand lower profit
margins, and are now turning to a more cautious growth path.

Korean companies, such as LG Energy Solution in Poland, are the largest battery
producers in Europe, but their market share is also under pressure. Over the past
2 years, the market share of Korean manufacturers in the European Union has
fallen from nearly 80% in 2022 to 60% in 2024, to the benefit of Chinese
manufacturers. A key reason for this is the increased success of the LFP
chemistry. In contrast, the share of Korean companies in the United States grew
from about 20% in 2022 to over 35% in 2024, at the expense of Japanese
manufacturers.

Korean manufacturers are rising to the challenge and are now investing in LFP,
including through innovation efforts, and are scaling up LFP battery production,
including in Europe and the United States. LFP battery development is also
advancing in Japan: In early 2025, Nissan announced plans to build an LFP
battery plant after receiving government certification in late 2024. Yet Chinese
manufacturers are continuing to innovate LFP chemistry and performance
simultaneously, further raising the bar for other producers. At the same time, the
Chinese government’s proposed export restrictions on advanced LFP
technologies could limit technology transfer.

In the United States, Panasonic – historically Tesla’s main battery partner –

remained the country’s largest battery producer in 2024, accounting for nearly half
of the electric car market. However, its share is declining as Korean producers like
LG Energy Solution, Samsung and SKI invest heavily in the US market. Tesla also
ramped up its own battery production in 2024, primarily for use in the Cybertruck.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle batteries

Battery production in the United States is expanding rapidly, spurred by the

implementation of tax credits. Manufacturing capacity has doubled since 2022,
reaching more than 200 GWh in 2024, with nearly 700 GWh of additional capacity
under construction. Around 40% of existing and committed capacity is being
operated or developed by established battery makers in close collaboration with
automakers. Nevertheless, the cost of production remains higher than in Asia, if
not accounting for incentives, and sudden policy shifts could affect the emerging
US battery industry, increase production costs, or slow expansion in the near to
medium term.

Share of electric car battery sales by battery manufacturer’s headquarters, 2022-2024

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024
World China European Union United States

Battery manufacturer headquarters: China Korea Japan Rest of World

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Battery refers to battery cells. It reflects the batteries installed in vehicles sold in each region, and not the battery
demand for vehicles manufactured in each region. Electric car and battery stockpiling are excluded from the analysis.
Sources: IEA analysis based on data from EV Volumes.

Battery innovation is accelerating, and it is not limited to

new chemistries
Advanced battery technologies under development include solid-state, sodium-
ion, lithium-sulphur, iron-air, and redox-flow batteries, among others. Some of
them, like iron-air and redox-flow batteries, target different applications to
established lithium-ion technologies, such as longer-duration storage for grid
applications. Others, like sodium-ion batteries, aim to reduce dependence on
lithium. Lastly, technologies like solid-state and lithium-sulphur batteries could
also accelerate electrification in sectors that require or would benefit from higher
energy densities, such as long-haul electric trucks or short-haul boats and planes.
However, their deployment in these sectors will depend on meeting stringent
safety requirements and on their total cost of ownership.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle batteries

Sodium-ion batteries gained significant attention in 2022 as lithium prices

surged, leading to the first EVs using the technology. Despite enthusiasm waxing
and waning as a result of material supply chain challenges and falling lithium
prices in 2023 and 2024, CATL – the world’s largest battery producer – announced
its second generation of sodium-ion batteries in 2025, alongside the launch of a
dedicated sodium-ion battery brand. Meanwhile, BYD is also investing in sodium-
ion battery production for EVs and battery storage. In March 2025, HiNa launched
its new sodium-ion battery, which offers improved energy density and faster
charging compared to the previous generation, heralding a promising year for this
technology. However, recent analyses indicate that sodium-ion batteries will
require either increased energy density or more favourable operating conditions –
particularly higher lithium prices – to compete with LFP batteries on a price per
kWh basis. Nevertheless, sodium-ion technologies could play a significant role
during times of elevated lithium prices and may offer a cheaper option for batteries
in cold climates, where LFP batteries typically perform less well.

In 2024, solid-state batteries moved closer to commercial reality with new large
prototypes and manufacturing investments from Samsung SDI, Toyota, NIO,
Honda, Quantum Scape, BASQUEVOLT, and Factorial, among others, and the
creation of a government-led Chinese battery alliance, including large producers
such as CATL, BYD, SAIC and Geely, to accelerate solid-state battery
development. Despite this, their potential advantages, including enabling higher
ranges and safety, still need to be demonstrated for battery packs manufactured
at scale and tested under controlled, realistic and standardised conditions. The
technology readiness level (TRL) of solid-state batteries therefore remains at large
pilot stage (TRL 6), although this could change rapidly with companies like Toyota
and BYD planning first mass production by 2027-2028. However, volumes will be
limited initially, and it will take several years following roll-out for solid-state
batteries to eventually become competitive with lithium-ion batteries. Additionally,
“solid-state batteries” is often used as a generic term covering a range of options
between fully solid-state and incumbent lithium-ion batteries, which creates some
confusion. The first “solid-state batteries” to be commercialised might be semi- or
quasi-solid-state batteries – for example using gel-like electrolyte 2 or incorporating
small volumes of liquid electrolytes – as they could help address some scale-up
challenges and reduce production costs.

Lithium-sulphur (Li-S) batteries, promising higher specific energy (Wh/kg) and

lower reliance on critical minerals, have also gained momentum. The US start-up
Lyten announced the world’s first Li-S gigafactory, while Stellantis partnered with
Zeta to commercialise this technology by 2030. However, several challenges
remain, including improving volumetric energy density (Wh/L), enhancing

2
French company Blue Solutions already markets a semi-solid-state battery using lithium metal anode and a gel electrolyte
that requires the battery to be heated during use, and plans to invest more than EUR 2 billion in a factory in France by 2030.

PAGE | 143
Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle batteries

durability, and addressing safety concerns related to the use of lithium metal
anodes. Overcoming these hurdles will be key to enabling real-world applications.

Advances in battery recycling are also being made, for example combining
pyrometallurgy and hydrometallurgy processes, increasing the recovery efficiency
of reactive metals such as lithium, recycling the graphite in the anodes, or through
the development of new recycling approaches, such as electrochemical
extraction. However, recycling feedstock availability remains limited, restricting the
impact of recycling in the short term (see Box below).

Options for battery reuse at the end of their first life for less demanding
applications are also under development, with the majority of companies in the
sector based in Europe. However, the economic viability of reuse is complicated
by upstream competition from recyclers looking for access to end-of-life batteries,
downstream competition from the falling prices of new batteries, and challenges
associated with battery dismantling and repurposing while ensuring strict safety
standards. Second-hand EV markets may play a larger role in supporting reuse
and also increasing affordability.

Innovation extends far beyond battery chemistries, and the already broad
landscape of battery innovation is getting even broader. 3 In 2023 and 2024, there
was a remarkable surge in improvements for incumbent lithium-ion batteries,
from superfast charging and “no-degradation” batteries to ultra-energy-dense
batteries and new charging platforms, manufacturing processes, cell formats and
pack designs, among others. Advances in manufacturing are also notable: for
example, artificial intelligence for image analysis can enable the early detection of
battery defects and their root causes, thereby improving production yields and
reducing scrap rates. This capability is critical for scaling up production given the
pace of modern gigafactories – a 50 GWh facility can produce up to 10 million
(cylindrical) or hundreds of thousands (prismatic) EV battery cells per day. 4 The
nature and pace of innovations in legacy technologies are already making a big
impact on the market, posing a formidable challenge for emerging technologies to
compete.

3
See IEA (2025) State of Energy Innovation for deeper insights into how this landscape is evolving.
4
Assuming an average plant utilisation factor of 85% over the year, a cell voltage of 4 volts, and a cell capacity of
60 ampere hours (prismatic) and 3 ampere hours (cylindrical).

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle batteries

Battery recycling is important, but its benefits will take time to materialise
Battery recycling is crucial for the battery industry’s long-term sustainability, and is
being promoted by industry organisations and governments through dedicated
investments and regulations. For instance, the EU Batteries Regulation sets
requirements for minimum recycling efficiency and recycled contents that will
increase progressively. Recycled battery metals such as nickel, cobalt and lithium
can incur 80% less GHG emissions than primary materials produced from mining and
refining, while also reducing local environmental impacts, including water use and
biodiversity loss near mines.
In addition to sustainability, governments are prioritising supply chain security.
Recycling can enhance resilience for consumer countries without direct access to
battery minerals, but only if there is a simultaneous development of the midstream
battery supply chain, particularly the cathode active material (CAM) industry. To
realise the security benefits, end-of-life batteries must be recycled, and the recovered
minerals processed and utilised domestically, or in a partner country, to produce
CAMs for batteries. However, the CAM industry is progressing more slowly than the
battery industry in Europe and the United States. In the absence of a domestic
industry, the recycled minerals would need to be exported for processing and then
reimported as CAMs, or within batteries or EVs, thereby forfeiting the supply chain
security advantage.
Recycling industries in Europe and North America have focused on NMC batteries –
the main chemistry used for electric cars in these regions, but advances in LFP
batteries are now making them more attractive outside of China, where LFP already
leads the EV battery market. The rise of cheaper batteries such as LFP poses a
challenge to the economic viability of battery recycling, which requires sufficiently high
concentrations of valuable minerals in batteries to be profitable. Nevertheless, this
does not preclude LFP battery recyclability, and NMC recycling facilities can be
modified to process LFP batteries, though this might require different business
models. Toll-based models – through the implementation of gate fees – can ensure
the economic viability of LFP recycling, especially when lithium prices are low.
Regulations would need to define how these toll fees are distributed to guarantee the
proper management of all end-of-life batteries.
It will take time for the battery recycling industry to significantly affect primary mineral
demand, as feedstock remains limited and EV batteries may last longer than
previously expected. End-of-life EV and storage batteries are expected to account for
only one-third of recyclable feedstock by 2030 and even less in the interim, with
manufacturing scraps making up the rest. It will require about a decade for end-of-life
batteries to become the main feedstock. In 2035, if countries fulfil their announced
climate pledges, recycling would reduce global primary demand for cobalt by over
15% (40% in 2050), and for lithium and nickel by only about 5% (25% in 2050).

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle batteries

Battery production and trade

The battery market is being reshaped by two distinct trends: increasing
consolidation, and government-led efforts to geographically diversify battery
supply chains. Whereas markets used to be regionalised and small, they are now
global and very large, and uncertainty over technological development is giving
way to standardisation. In this new phase, economies of scale, partnerships along
the supply chain, manufacturing efficiency, and the capacity to bring innovations
swiftly to market will be even more crucial for manufacturers to remain competitive.

The battery supply chain remains geographically

concentrated
The EV and battery supply chain becomes increasingly geographically
concentrated when moving upstream from car manufacturing to battery cell and
component production. China was responsible for 80% of global battery cell
production in 2024, while the remainder was produced in the United States, the
European Union, Korea and Japan. Importantly, the production of lithium-ion
battery manufacturing equipment is also highly concentrated, with China, Korea,
and Japan leading the market. China has also established a near monopoly on
battery components production, supplying almost 85% of cathode active materials
– including NMC and LFP chemistries – and over 90% of anode active material
production, predominantly graphite. Outside of China, only Korea and Japan offer
sizeable production capacity for cathode components. Korea also produces
anodes, and Indonesia is expected to bring some diversification to the market.
Nonetheless, China is set to remain the largest producer of batteries and their
components by some distance in the medium term, based on announced projects
and competitive advantages.

The geographical concentration of battery mineral mining and refining needed for
battery cathodes and anodes is also a concern. In 2023, Australia, Chile and China
mined about 85% of global lithium, with almost 65% refined in China and another
25% in Chile. Indonesia accounted for over half of nickel mining in 2023, while
China and Indonesia together refined more than 60%. In the same year, the
Democratic Republic of Congo was home to almost two-thirds of the world’s cobalt
mining, though three-quarters of all cobalt refining was handled in China. Graphite
supply, the only critical mineral used for anodes today, is even more concentrated,
with China responsible for 80% of mining and over 90% of refining.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle batteries

Global manufacturing and trade flows of electric cars, lithium-ion batteries, and key
components, 2024

Cathodes and anodes Battery manufacturing Electric car manufacturing Electric car sales

China

China

Europe

Other Asia

Europe North
America
Other Asia
RoW
North
Other EVs and battery storage
America
1.1 TWh 17 million cars

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: RoW = Rest of World; EV = electric vehicle; Cathodes and anodes refer to cathode and anode active materials.
Flows are normalised to the battery (cell) manufacturing step, with cathode and anode active materials normalised such
that their sum is scaled to the battery cell volume. Numbers below the charts refer to the total demand, not only the traded
volume. The lighter-colour version of the flows going to battery manufacturing represents the anodes (anode active
materials). Battery applications different from EVs and battery storage are excluded from the analysis. Electric vehicle and
battery stockpiling are excluded from the analysis.
Sources: IEA analysis based on EV Volumes, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, and Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Battery manufacturing capacity continues to grow

Global battery (cell) manufacturing capacity grew almost 30% in 2024 to reach
more than 3 TWh – three times EV and battery storage demand in the same year.
About 85% of global manufacturing capacity is in China, showing little change from
2023, and over 75% is owned by Chinese producers. Manufacturing capacity in
the United States grew by almost 50%, led by Korean companies attracted by tax
credits, which accounted for nearly 70% of the growth in 2024. This led installed
capacity in the United States to surpass that in the European Union, which
nonetheless increased by 10% in 2024 despite the Northvolt plant in Sweden
being halted following its bankruptcy. The first Indian and Indonesian battery
plants also opened in 2024, totalling more than 5 GWh/year and 10 GWh/year of
manufacturing capacity, respectively.

Korean manufacturers remained the largest investors in overseas battery

manufacturing capacity, 5 accounting for over 400 GWh globally, compared to
60 GWh for Japanese and 30 GWh for Chinese producers. Korean
manufacturers, such as LG Energy Solution (with capacity in Poland), and

5
This refers solely to existing manufacturing capacity as of 2024, and it accounts only for factories located outside the home
country of the battery producer's headquarters.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle batteries

Samsung and SKI (in Hungary), continue to be the main source of capacity in the
European Union, and their importance is growing in the United States. If all
announced projects are completed in full, the manufacturing capacity of Korean
manufacturers outside of Korea would reach more than 1.1 TWh by 2030, 85%
more than the announced overseas manufacturing capacity of Chinese battery
producers.

Installed lithium-ion battery cell nameplate manufacturing capacity by region and

location of manufacturer’s headquarters, 2024
3 000 250
GWh/year

2 400 200

1 800 150

1 200 100

600 50

0 0
China European Union United States Japan Korea RoW

Battery manufacturer headquarters

China European Union United States Korea Japan RoW 2023

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: RoW = Rest of World. Lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity installed in China, European Union, United States,
Japan, Korea, and other countries sorted as a function of the company headquarters location (colours). For companies
headquartered in a country but owned by companies headquartered in a second country, the headquarters of the owning
company is considered for this analysis. The manufacturing capacity of joint ventures between automakers and battery
producers is classified according to the battery producer headquarters.
Source: IEA analysis based on data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

Asian manufacturers are leading battery market expansion

Expansion plans for manufacturing capacity can drive geographical diversification
in the battery industry. Committed projects – i.e. those that are either under
construction or have reached a final investment decision – would increase
manufacturing capacity in China by nearly 60%, and almost quadruple capacity in
the European Union and the United States. This expansion would lead global
manufacturing capacity to grow to about 6.5 TWh (and more than 9 TWh if
accounting for all announcements), up from 3.3 TWh in 2024, and reduce China’s
share of global manufacturing capacity to about two-thirds by 2030, down from
85% in 2024. Ownership distribution is expected to diversify less, given that
capacity expansion is predominantly driven by established manufacturers
headquartered in China, Korea or Japan, whose expertise in the battery sector
provides a significant competitive edge.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle batteries

Historical production and announced expansion of battery manufacturing maximum

output by region, 2023, 2024 and 2030
6 000 1 200
GWh/year

Announced maximum
manufacturing output:
5 000 1 000 Preliminary

4 000 800 Committed

Existing manufacturing
3 000 600 capacity:
Increased utilisation

2 000 400
2024 production
1 000 200
2023 production

China European United Rest of World

Union States

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Increased utilisation refers to the gap between 2023 production levels and existing capacity being utilised at 85%,
which is assumed to be the maximum average utilisation rate. A utilisation rate of 85% is also used for both committed and
preliminary manufacturing capacity in 2030. Manufacturing capacity refers to companies already certified to serve both the
EV and stationary storage markets and companies not yet certified to serve the EV market. Committed refers to plants that
have reached a final investment decision and are starting or have already started construction works, and preliminary to
plants that have been announced but are not yet being built. Production refers to EV battery and battery storage, and EV
and battery stockpiling are excluded from the analysis. Data to end of Q1 2025.
Sources: IEA analysis based on data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, Bloomberg New Energy Finance, and EV
Volumes.

The European Union is the largest single destination for overseas investments by
Chinese battery producers, whose share of manufacturing capacity in the region
could quadruple, rising from less than 10% in 2024 to more than 30% by 2030.
These investments are an opportunity for technology transfer, bringing the
expertise needed to scale up production in the region and drive down costs, which
would benefit domestic automakers at a critical time for the industry. However, this
may also create challenges for the region’s established and emerging battery
producers.

The share of battery manufacturing capacity in the European Union owned by

Korean producers is expected to fall sharply from about 85% in 2024 to nearly 30%
in 2030, while the share of EU-based companies could reach 20%, up from 5% at
the end of 2024. However, this includes plants facing significant uncertainty, such
as the Northvolt plant in Germany, for which Germany assumed over
EUR 600 million in debt, and which is not directly affected Northvolt’s bankruptcy.
More generally, concerns are growing about the ability of smaller European
producers to scale up production and compete with established global players,
which may lead to a much smaller share of the future EU battery market being
captured by domestic manufacturers.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle batteries

Share of nameplate manufacturing capacity by region and location of battery

producer’s headquarters, 2024-2030

2.8 TWh 4.4 TWh 0.2 TWh 0.7 TWh 0.2 TWh 0.9 TWh 0.1 TWh 0.5 TWh
100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030
Installed Committed Installed Committed Installed Committed Installed Committed
China European Union United States Rest of World

Battery manufacturer headquarters

China Korea Japan European Union United States Rest of World
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Committed refers to the sum of the installed manufacturing capacity (2024) and plants that have reached a final
investment decision and are starting or have already started construction works. Manufacturing capacity refers to battery
cells. For companies headquartered in a country but owned by companies headquartered in a second country, the
headquarters of the owning company is considered for this analysis. The manufacturing capacity of joint ventures between
automakers and battery producers is classified according to the battery producer headquarters. Numbers above each bar
indicate the total nameplate manufacturing capacity in terawatt-hours (TWh) of batteries per year. Data to end of Q1 2025.
Sources: IEA analysis based on data from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence and Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Collaboration between Korean or Japanese battery producers and OEMs

operating in the United States is proving successful, with Korean companies
leading investments in the country. They held or participated in 40% of the battery
manufacturing capacity in the United States in 2024, and committed investments
are expected to boost their share to over 50% by 2030. Meanwhile, based on
committed projects, the share of Japanese companies would fall by almost half by
2030, and that of domestic companies like Tesla would drop from nearly 40% in
2024 to less than 30% in 2030. In addition, some companies primarily or fully
owned by Chinese groups, such as Envision and Gotion, have also invested or
announced plans to invest in the United States, but recent policies might lead to
the cancellation of these plans.

Outside of today’s three main EV markets, 60% of committed capacity is set to be

added in other advanced economies thanks to growing demand and government
support, including in Canada, other European countries, Korea, and Japan. The
remaining more than 150 GWh of committed manufacturing capacity is being built
in Southeast Asia, India and Morocco. Although these regions have attracted
fewer investments to date due to limited domestic battery demand, they are
increasingly generating interest from battery manufacturers.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Electric vehicle batteries

Southeast Asia is attracting significant Chinese investments, which could speed

up technology and innovation transfer. Indonesia, home to half the world’s mined
nickel needed for NMC batteries, is also investing heavily in battery component
production – such as cathode and anode active materials – and its first graphite
anode plants began production in 2024. India also has the potential to unlock a
substantial battery market and is investing in domestic battery production, but
realising its ambition to become a major battery manufacturer will require
additional investments and clear policy signals supporting EV demand. In
Morocco, abundant phosphate reserves – a mineral essential for LFP batteries –
along with an established car manufacturing industry and free trade agreements
with the European Union and the United States, have spurred over USD 15 billion
in announced investments. These investments comprise lithium processing and
battery and component manufacturing, including a large battery manufacturing
plant of 100 GWh, the first in Africa.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Outlook for energy demand

8. Outlook for energy demand

Electricity demand
Electric vehicles could account for more than 4% of
European electricity demand by 2030
In 2024, the global fleet of EVs consumed around 180 TWh of electricity, 1 almost
60% more than the previous year. To put this in perspective, 180 TWh is more
than the annual electricity consumption of Argentina. At the global level, EVs
represented about 0.7% of final electricity consumption in 2024.

The stock of EVs is set to more than triple to 2030, but electricity demand could
increase more than fourfold, reaching 780 TWh in the STEPS. This is driven by
increasing consumption from electric trucks, as well as greater EV uptake in
markets where people drive more per year. Total energy demand for road
transport increases by only 5% in 2030 in the STEPS, while total road activity (in
terms of vehicle kilometres travelled) increases by almost 20% during the same
period, reflecting the greater energy efficiency of EVs.

Electricity demand by mode and by region in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2024-2030
By mode By region
1 000
TWh

800

600

400

200

0
2024 2027 2030 2024 2027 2030
China Europe United States
LDV Two/three-wheeler Bus Truck
Other AEs Other EMDEs
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: LDV = light-duty vehicle; AEs = advanced economies; EMDEs = emerging markets and developing economies. The
analysis is carried out for each region in the transport model within the IEA's Global Energy and Climate Model (GEC-
Model) separately and then aggregated for global results. Regional data can be interactively explored via the Global EV
Data Explorer.

1
Electricity demand includes vehicle charging losses, which vary based on charging speed; it does not include transmission
and distribution losses. For further information, see the model documentation.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Outlook for energy demand

Globally, electric LDVs remain the greatest consumer of electricity for road
transport, though their share of road electricity demand falls by around
5 percentage points in 2024 to slightly above 60% in 2030 in the STEPS. In China
in 2024, LDVs were responsible for only around 55% of road electricity demand,
and this remains the same in 2030 in the STEPS, illustrating China’s success in
EV adoption across a range of applications. In contrast, over 90% of electricity
demand for road in the United States came from electric cars in 2024, though this
falls to around 75% in 2030 in the STEPS, as demand from electric buses and
commercial vehicles picks up. In Europe, the increasing number of electric heavy-
duty trucks means their share of road transport electricity demand increases from
less than 5% to more than 20% in 2030 in the STEPS.

In both China and Europe, the share of electricity demand from EVs reached the
milestone of 1% in 2024. By 2030 in the STEPS, the share of electricity for EVs in
Europe exceeds the share in China, as electricity demand for other end uses, such
as industry and buildings, grows faster in China than in Europe. Globally, EVs
represent 2.5% of electricity demand in 2030 in the STEPS.

Share of electricity consumption from electric vehicles relative to final electricity

consumption by region and scenario in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2024 and 2030

Country/region 2024 2030

China 1.2% 3.6%

Europe 1.0% 4.3%
United States 0.6% 2.2%
Japan 0.1% 0.5%
India 0.2% 1.1%
Southeast Asia 0.2% 1.0%
Latin America 0.1% 1.0%
Global 0.7% 2.5%
Notes: Total electricity consumption is taken from the IEA's Global Energy and Climate Model (GEC-Model). Regional data
can be interactively explored via the Global EV Data Explorer.

Oil displacement
Electric vehicles displace more than 5 mb/d by 2030
Expanding EV adoption continues to reduce oil demand, with oil displacement
growing by 30% to over 1.3 mb/d in 2024 – equivalent to Japan’s entire transport
sector oil demand today. By the end of the decade, EVs are set to displace over
5 mb/d of diesel and gasoline in the STEPS, and China’s EVs to account for half
of displaced oil.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Outlook for energy demand

Electric LDVs drive most of the oil displacement, accounting for 80% today and
around 77% by 2030. The relative impact of LDVs becomes smaller over time as
technology developments and the expansion of charging infrastructure drive
electrification in the heavy-duty segment, with electric trucks and buses together
displacing nearly 1 mb/d in the STEPS by 2030.

Oil displacement by region and mode in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2024-2030

By region By mode
2024 2030 2024 2030
0
-1
mb/d

-2
-3
-4
-5
-6

By region: China Europe United States India Rest of World

By mode: Light-duty vehicle Truck Bus Two/three-wheeler
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Oil displacement is based on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle fuel consumption to cover the same mileage
as the electric vehicle (EV) fleet. Oil displacement is calculated by assuming that the distance (total kilometres) travelled by
EVs by segment each year would have been otherwise travelled by ICE vehicles or hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs). In the
case of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), where the powertrain uses both oil-based fuel and electricity, only the
distance covered by electricity is included. This method of estimation assumes that EVs replace ICE or hybrid vehicles of
the same segment, and that these vehicles follow the same driving behaviour. The accuracy of this assumption is
uncertain; there is some evidence to suggest that EVs are driven further than their ICE counterparts, for example.

Governments will need to adapt tax policies to ensure

both future revenues and growth of electrification
One of the primary financial challenges of vehicle electrification for governments
is the resulting reduction in revenue from fossil fuel taxes. While efficiency
improvements in ICEs have already had an impact on tax receipts, the fuel shift
could lead to a further decline in tax income. Although EV drivers contribute to
additional revenue through electricity taxes, this remains insufficient to fully
compensate for the loss in gasoline and diesel tax income.

In 2024, electricity tax revenue increased by nearly 50% to reach more than
USD 2.5 billion globally, while gasoline and diesel tax revenues accounted for
USD 560 billion. As the global EV stock continues to rise, fossil fuel tax revenue
is projected to decrease significantly to nearly USD 520 billion by 2030 in the
STEPS, while electricity tax revenue grows to over USD 10 billion. If the decline
in fossil fuel tax revenue is not compensated with alternative taxation measures,
the effect of electrification displacing gasoline and diesel would result in a net tax

PAGE | 154
Global EV Outlook 2025 Outlook for energy demand

shortfall for governments reaching more than USD 65 billion globally by 2030. In
this scenario, Europe would account for 55% of net tax shortfall if no changes are
made to fuel taxation.

China’s fossil fuel tax revenues are projected to decrease from USD 45 billion to
USD 41 billion as the share of electric cars in the total fleet rises to around 35%
by 2030 in the STEPS. However, the increase in China’s electricity tax revenue
due to vehicle fleet electrification would nearly fully offset the loss. In Europe,
which sees the largest decrease in fossil fuel tax revenue, the net impact of
electrification is expected to result in a tax revenue decline of USD 40 billion in the
STEPS by 2030. In the United States, fossil fuel tax revenue is projected to
increase by USD 0.1 billion due to slow electrification and growth in the overall
vehicle fleet. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is set to experience an increase in
combined fossil fuel and electricity tax revenue totalling around USD 6.5 billion by
the end of the decade, driven by expected growth in both ICEs and EVs.

Electricity, gasoline and diesel tax income by region, 2024, and in the Stated Policies
Scenario, 2030
Electricity Gasoline and diesel
4.5 330
Billion USD

3.0 220

1.5 110

0 0
2024 2030 2024 2030

China Europe United States Rest of World

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: Fuel tax rates are assumed to remain constant. Only federal tax rates are included.
Source: Analysis based on tax rates from IEA Energy Prices.

Tax reforms to address tax income loss due to rising electromobility have tended
to target three main areas: energy use (e.g. fuel excise duty), vehicle stock (e.g.
registration tax) or road use (e.g. road tolls). For example, New Zealand ended its
exemption for EVs from road use charges in 2024, and its new rate of
NZD 76 (New Zealand dollars) (USD 46) per 1 000 km for BEVs is estimated to
have generated tax revenue in the order of USD 50 million in 2024. To stabilise
tax revenues, Norway, a world leader on electromobility, with nearly 90% share of
car sales being battery electric in 2024, introduced a vehicle weight tax of
NOK 12.08 Norwegian kroner (USD 1.1) per kilogramme on BEVs, generating

PAGE | 155
Global EV Outlook 2025 Outlook for energy demand

around USD 0.15 billion in 2024. Prior to this, in 2023, Norway introduced a 25%
VAT rate on BEVs priced at more than NOK 500 000 (around USD 46 000), and
estimates having earned around (USD 0.14 billion) in 2024 from this new VAT tax
measure. However, maintaining the VAT exemption for battery electric cars priced
below NOK 500 000 resulted in revenue loss of around NOK 13 billion
(USD 1.2 billion).

Prior to 2025, the United Kingdom waived vehicle excise duty (VED) for electric,
zero, or low-emission cars, vans and motorcycles. From 1 April 2025, however,
new electric cars are taxed GBP 10 (USD 13) in the first year and the standard
rate, GBP 195 (around USD 255), in subsequent years. This measure boosts
government coffers by nearly USD 3 billion by 2030 in the STEPS. Considering
the gain from EV VED alongside the reduction in VED from ICE vehicles, the net
tax increase from total car VED is projected to reach more than USD 1 billion by
2030.

Another option open to policy makers could be taxing vehicles based on efficiency,
rather than imposing a flat rate, which would mean owners of less efficient, older
vehicles bear a higher tax burden. While this could further incentivise EV growth,
it might disproportionally affect people in lower-income demographics who are
more likely to own an older vehicle, potentially reducing the public acceptance of
electromobility in the long-term.

Similarly, there is a risk of public pushback in response to the introduction of taxes

on EVs to cover fuel excise duty losses. To minimise this risk, any tax reform will
need to be designed in a way that protects low-income households, while avoiding
penalising early EV adopters. As the shift towards EVs continues, it will be
essential for governments to introduce tax measures that gradually address the
revenue gap while continuing to incentivise a just transition to a low-emissions
transport system.

PAGE | 156
Global EV Outlook 2025 Annex

Annex

Annex A: Total cost of ownership

The truck total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis uses the following inputs and
assumptions.

Works consulted

General literature that contributed to developing the methodology and validating

assumptions and values used in the total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis

Institution Components Includes estimates or references for

European Capital and installation costs over time, for a variety

HRS, EV charging
Commission of scales, operation and maintenance cost, lifetimes

Capital and installation costs, maintenance and

NREL EV charging
land costs, effect of scale

Component costs for all three powertrains, low,

Diesel, battery electric and fuel
Ricardo average, high values for each, indirect costs and
cell trucks
margins, component sizing

TCO analysis, residual value, truck retail price by

Diesel, battery electric and fuel class, component costs and sizing over time,
ICCT
cell trucks financing assumptions, maintenance costs, Europe-
focused

TCO analysis, residual value, component costs and

Diesel, battery electric and fuel
ICCT sizing over time, financing assumptions,
cell trucks, EV charging
maintenance costs, United States-focused

TCO analysis, residual value, component costs and

Diesel, battery electric and fuel
UC Davis sizing, financing assumptions, maintenance costs,
cell trucks
United States-focused

TCO analysis, residual value, component costs and

Diesel, battery electric and fuel
TNO sizing over time, margins, financing assumptions,
cell trucks, HRS, EV charging
maintenance costs, Europe-focused

TCO analysis, dwell time considerations, residual

Diesel, battery electric and fuel value, component costs and sizing, financing
NREL
cell trucks assumptions, maintenance costs, various duty
cycles, United States-focused

Diesel, battery electric and fuel Maintenance and repair costs for the three
UC Davis
cell trucks powertrains over time

PAGE | 157
Global EV Outlook 2025 Annex

Institution Components Includes estimates or references for

BNEF* Battery electric truck Battery pack prices for commercial BEVs in 2024

Diesel, battery electric and fuel

ITF Methodology, limitations, uncertainty analysis
cell trucks

Notes: HRS = Hydrogen refuelling station; EV = electric vehicle; BEV = battery electric vehicle; ICCT = International
Council on Clean Transportation, ITF = International Transport Forum, NREL = National Renewable Energy Laboratory,
TCO = Total cost of ownership, *the specific report from which the figures are derived is behind a paywall.

Vehicle production costs, specifications, and payload

Truck powertrain components in the United States, the European Union, and China
used in the analysis

Powertrain type Component Value

Diesel Engine power 325 kW

Electric drive power 350 kW

Battery electric Battery pack size 800 kWh

On-board charger 44 kW

Electric drive power 350 kW

Fuel cell power 362 kW

Fuel cell electric Battery pack size 70 kWh

On-board charger 6.6 kW

700 bar hydrogen tank size 60 kg

Notes: Powertrain sizing values are for a United States class 8 (or equivalent) tractor truck. The 60 kg hydrogen tank has a
usable capacity of 50 kg. Fuel cell power is sized to provide 275 kW of power after 25 000 hours of operation.
Sources: Diesel engine power and battery electric battery pack size are adapted from National Renewable Energy
Laboratory, fuel cell stack and fuel cell battery sizing are taken from US Department of Energy, electric drive power, on-
board charger, and hydrogen tank sizes are taken from Riccardo.

Direct manufacturing costs of powertrain components in the United States, the

European Union, and China used in the analysis, 2024 and 2030
Units United States European Union China
Component 2024 USD 2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030

Electric drive USD/kW 80 75 70 70 44 42

Power electronics
USD/kW 27 26 24 24 15 14
(e-drive inverter box)

DC/DC converter USD 540 525 485 470 295 290

Heating, Ventilation,
and Air Conditioning;
USD 8555 8340 6590 6425 2995 2920
electrical and air
brakes

PAGE | 158
Global EV Outlook 2025 Annex

Units United States European Union China

Component 2024 USD 2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030

Battery and
electronics thermal USD/kW 19 17 17 16 11 10
management (BEV)

Battery and
electronics thermal USD/kW 8 7 7 7 5 4
management (FCEV)

Fuel cell system USD/kW 365 230 330 210 200 130

Battery (FCEV) USD/kWh 510 385 510 385 280 210

Battery (BEV) USD/kWh 190 100 190 100 85 70

On-board charger USD/kW 65 60 60 55 36 33

700-bar hydrogen
USD/kg 1220 1035 1095 930 670 570
tank
Notes: “BEV” = battery electric vehicle; “FCEV” = fuel-cell electric vehicle. “Battery” includes battery cells, pack and the
battery management system. In the case of BEVs the battery chemistry is assumed to be lithium iron phosphate (LFP), for
FCEVs it is lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide (NMC). “Fuel cell system” costs include economies of scale and learning
effects equal to production volumes of 1 000 units and 20 000 units per year in 2024 and 2030, respectively. Values below
USD 50 have been rounded to the nearest USD 1; values above USD 50 have been rounded to the nearest USD 5.
Sources: Battery costs are adapted from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, fuel cell system costs are adapted from US
Department of Energy, electric drive, battery and electronics thermal management, on-board charger, DC/DC converter,
hydrogen tank, and power electronics are adapted from Riccardo.

Estimated purchase price of a heavy-duty diesel truck in the United States, the
European Union, and China used in the analysis, 2024 and 2030

United States European Union China

2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030

Driveline, cab, and

40 400 39 300 31 100 30 300 14 100 13 800
chassis

Powertrain 66 000 69 300 48 400 53 400 23 100 24 300

Manufacturing and
7 400 7 600 5 700 5 900 2 600 2 700
assembly
Indirect costs and
41 000 41 800 31 500 32 300 14 300 14 700
margins

Total 154 800 158 000 119 100 121 900 54 100 55 500

Notes: Prices in 2024 USD for a United States class 8 (or equivalent) tractor truck with a 325 kW engine, as specified in the
previous tables. “Powertrain” includes the engine and all balance of plant. Manufacturing and assembly costs are assumed
to be 7% of production costs of the components, and indirect costs and margins are 36% of the total production cost,
equally applied across all regions. All values are rounded to the nearest USD 100. The bottom-up calculated totals were
validated against values from the California Air Resources Board (United States and Europe) and ICCT (China).
Sources: Values for the share of total costs from the driveline, cab and chassis; from manufacturing and assembly costs;
and from indirect costs and margins are taken from Riccardo.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Annex

Estimated purchase price of a heavy-duty fuel cell electric truck in the United States,
the European Union, and China used in the analysis, 2024 and 2030
United States European Union China
2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030
Finished chassis
40 400 39 300 31 100 30 300 14 100 13 800
and cab

Powertrain 41 200 39 200 37 000 35 300 22 600 21 500

Battery 35 800 26 800 35 800 26 800 19 700 14 800

Fuel cell 132 700 84 100 119 400 75 700 73 000 46 300

Hydrogen tank 73 100 62 100 65 800 55 900 40 200 34 200

Manufacturing and
22 600 17 600 20 200 15 700 11 900 9 100
assembly
Indirect costs and
124 500 96 900 111 300 86 300 65 300 50 300
margins
Total 470 300 366 000 420 600 326 000 246 800 190 000
Notes: Costs are for a United States class 8 (or equivalent) tractor truck with a 380 kW fuel cell system, hydrogen tank with
50 kg of usable capacity, and a 350 kW electric drive unit. Powertrain includes the electric drive unit, electronics and
thermal management units, a 70 kWh battery, and all balance of plant. Manufacturing and assembly costs are assumed to
be 3% of production costs of the components. with indirect costs and margins of 36% of the total production cost, equally
applied across all regions. All values are rounded to the nearest USD 100. The bottom-up calculated totals were validated
against values from the California Air Resources Board (United States and Europe) and ICCT (China).
Sources: Values for the share of total costs from the driveline, cab, and chassis; from manufacturing and assembly costs;
and from indirect costs and margins are adapted from Riccardo.

Estimated purchase price of a heavy-duty battery electric truck in the United States, the
European Union, and China used in the analysis, 2024 and 2030
United States European Union China
2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030
Finished chassis
40 400 39 300 31 100 30 300 14 100 13 800
and cab

Powertrain 47 500 44 900 42 700 40 400 26 100 24 700

Battery 152 000 78 900 152 000 78 900 69 700 55 600

Manufacturing and
16 800 11 400 15 800 10 500 7 700 6 600
assembly

Indirect costs and

92 400 62 800 87 000 57 600 42 300 36 300
margins

Total 349 100 237 300 328 600 217 700 159 900 137 000

Notes: Costs are for a United States class 8 (or equivalent) tractor truck with a 350 kW electric drive unit, and an 800 kWh
battery. Powertrain includes the electric drive unit, electronics and thermal management units, on-board charger, and all
balance of plant. Manufacturing and assembly costs are assumed to be 3% of production costs of the components, with
indirect costs and margins of 36% of the total production cost, equally applied across all regions. All values are rounded to
the nearest USD 100. The bottom-up calculated totals were validated against values from the California Air Resources
Board (United States and Europe) and ICCT (China).
Sources: Values for the share of total costs from the driveline, cab, and chassis; from manufacturing and assembly costs;
and from indirect costs and margins are adapted from Riccardo.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Annex

Estimated maintenance, insurance, and labour costs for battery electric, fuel cell
electric, and diesel trucks 2024 and 2030
Maintenance Insurance Labour
USD/km % USD/hour
2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030
Diesel United States 0.26 0.26 3.0% 3.0% 42.1 44.3
internal
European
combustion 0.26 0.26 3.0% 3.0% 24.6 26.1
Union
engine
vehicle China 0.18 0.18 3.0% 3.0% 11.6 14.0

United States 0.19 0.17 3.6% 3.2% 42.1 44.3

Battery
electric European Union 0.19 0.17 3.6% 3.2% 24.6 26.1
vehicle
China 0.13 0.12 3.6% 3.2% 11.6 14.0

United States 0.22 0.21 4.5% 4.1% 42.1 44.3

Fuel cell
electric European Union 0.22 0.21 4.5% 4.1% 24.6 26.1
vehicle
China 0.16 0.15 4.5% 4.1% 11.6 14.0
Notes: Maintenance costs are the same in years 1-5. Insurance costs are expressed as a share of the capital cost of the
truck and represent the first year’s premium, every year thereafter premiums fall by 2.5% for diesel vehicles, and 3.5% for
battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric; these figures are estimates derived from stakeholder engagement. Figures for
labour cost are inclusive of employer’s contributions.
Sources: Maintenance costs are adapted from UC Davis, labour costs are adapted from the International Labour
Organization (United States and Europe) and from the Economic Research Institute (China).

Estimated unladen weight of a heavy-duty tractor-trailer, 2024 and 2030

2024 2030

Diesel BEV FCEV Diesel BEV FCEV

Truck chassis and cab 6 700 6 700 6 700 5 200 5 200 5 200

Powertrain or motors 2 200 600 600 2 200 600 600

Battery - 4 200 300 - 3 500 300

Fuel cell - - 1 200 - - 800

Hydrogen tank - - 1 800 - - 1 800

Trailer 7 000 7 000 7 000 7 000 7 000 7 000

Total (kg) 15 800 18 500 17 600 14 400 16 300 15 700

Notes: Estimates are for a United States class 8 (or equivalent) tractor-trailer. The weight of the diesel battery is included in
powertrain. Battery electric trucks are assumed to use lithium iron phosphate (LFP), and fuel cell electric trucks lithium
nickel cobalt manganese oxide (NMC); in 2024 and 2030 these are assumed to have energy densities of 190 Wh/kg and
230 Wh/kg, and 250 Wh/kg and 280 Wh/kg. All values are rounded to the nearest 100 kg.
Sources: Values for the specific mass of diesel trucks, hydrogen tanks, fuel cells, powertrain or motors, and trailers come
from the ICCT, and were validated against assumptions from Riccardo.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Annex

Gross maximum vehicle weight of a tractor-trailer combination, derogations, and

resulting payload in the United States, the European Union, and China.

United States European Union China

2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030

Maximum gross vehicle

36 300 36 300 40 000 40 000 49 000 49 000
weight

Derogation (current) 900 900 2 000 2 000 0 0

Diesel payload 21 400 22 800 26 200 27 600 33 200 34 600

BEV payload 18 700 20 900 23 500 25 700 30 500 32 700

(penalty relative to diesel) (12.6%) (8.6%) (10.2%) (7.1%) (8.1%) (5.6%)

FCEV payload 19 600 21 400 24 400 26 300 31 400 33 300

(penalty relative to diesel) (8.3%) (5.9%) (6.8%) (4.9%) (5.4%) (3.9%)

Notes: “BEV” = battery electric vehicle; “FCEV” = fuel cell electric vehicle. Payloads are calculated as the maximum gross
vehicle weight, minus the estimated unladen weights from the previous table, plus the derogation, if applicable. The US
maximum gross vehicle weight is set to the 80 000 lb (36 288 kg) limit and does not include allowances for different
configurations, the derogations refers to the 2 000 lb (907 kg) additional allowance for natural gas and electric vehicles but
is assumed to also apply to FCEVs as per amendments made to several state laws. The proposed 4 000 kg (additional
2 000 kg on top of existing derogation) in the European Union is not included in the table but would reduce the penalty
relative to diesel in 2024 to 2.6% and -0.8%, and in 2030 to -0.2% and -2.4% for BEV and FCEV respectively, with negative
values implying they would, in theory, be permitted to run at a greater gross vehicle weight than their diesel counterparts.
No derogation currently applies or is proposed for China.

Energy prices and fuel economy

Prices of diesel, electricity, and hydrogen, 2024 and 2030

Units United States European Union China
Fuel 2024 USD 2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030

Diesel USD/kWh 0.11 0.12 0.17 0.19 0.11 0.11

Diesel USD/L 1.14 1.18 1.70 1.88 1.10 1.14

Electricity USD/kWh 0.16 0.16 0.24 0.23 0.08 0.08

Hydrogen USD/kWh 0.12 0.15 0.23 0.30 0.15 0.14

Hydrogen USD/kg H2 3.88 4.87 7.84 9.88 4.86 4.83

Notes: Hydrogen prices are composed of the weighted levelised cost of production and distribution, an assumed margin of
20%, and 10% tax. Underlying electricity prices are the same at both the depot and during en route charging, with the
difference between them due exclusively to the differences in the infrastructure costs.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Annex

Fuel economy of diesel, battery electric and fuel cell heavy-duty trucks, 2024 and 2030

Powertrain Units 2024 2030

Diesel ICEV kWh/km 3.5 3.5

Diesel ICEV L/100 km 35.2 34.5

BEV kWh/km 1.6 1.5

FCEV kWh/km 2.6 2.4

FCEV kg H2/100 km 7.7 7.3

Notes: “ICEV” = internal combustion engine vehicle; “BEV” = battery electric vehicle; “FCEV” = fuel cell electric vehicle.
BEV fuel economy based on a charging efficiency of 97.5%.

Infrastructure costs and specifications

Capital and operating costs of a 50 kW and 350 kW heavy-duty electric fast charger,
2024 and 2030
Utilisation
CAPEX (2023 USD) OPEX
factor
50 kW 350 kW (350 kW)

2024 23 000 289 500 5% 5%

United States
2030 19 500 246 500 5% 10%

2024 22 000 218 500 5% 5%

European Union
2030 19 000 185 500 5% 10%

2024 4 500 31 500 5% 5%

China
2030 3 500 27 000 5% 10%
Notes: CAPEX = Capital expenditure and includes installation cost. OPEX = Operating expenditure, which is an annual
cost expressed as a share of CAPEX. Utilisation factor refers to the share of hours in a day during which the charger is
occupied. It is assumed that each battery electric vehicle requires the installation of one 50 kW charger at the depot, with a
15-year lifetime and 8% discount rate, and no additional land costs. For each year of operation one year of levelised cost of
the depot charger is added to the infrastructure costs of the battery electric truck. For the 350 kW charger, vehicle footprint
including 10% setback is assumed to be 54m2 plus 20m2 per charging pile for the pile itself, cabling, or other equipment.
Industrial land values for the United States and Europe are assumed to be USD 1 642/m2 and USD 242/m2 in China and
include a 23% markup for permitting and preparation. 350 kW charger costs are levelised assuming a 10-year lifetime and
8% discount rate. Diesel refuelling station infrastructure cost of 2% of the sale price of the fuel assumed throughout to
account for both capital and operating costs.
Sources: The estimate for additional area required per charging pile is adapted from the ICCT, permitting and preparation
costs associated with land purchase are taken from Argonne National Laboratory, industrial land values are adapted from
CommercialEdge (United States and Europe) and CEIC (China).

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Annex

Capital and operating costs of a 700 bar, 2 500 kg/day hydrogen refuelling station, 2024
and 2030
Average
CAPEX OPEX
Utilisation fill rate
Variable factor
2023 USD Fixed (kgH2/min)
(kWhe/kgH2)
2024 8 840 000 4% 1.4 35% 2.5
United States
2030 8 030 000 4% 1.4 40% 3.6

2024 8 840 000 4% 1.4 35% 2.5

European Union
2030 8 030 000 4% 1.4 40% 3.6

2024 2 660 000 4% 1.4 35% 2.5

China
2030 2 480 000 4% 1.4 40% 3.6
Notes: CAPEX = Capital expenditure and includes installation cost; OPEX = Operating expenditure. “Fixed” is an annual
cost expressed as a share of CAPEX, “Variable” is per unit of hydrogen dispensed. For a hydrogen refuelling station
“utilisation factor” refers to the share of maximum daily hydrogen capacity which is dispensed each day. Hydrogen is
delivered to the station and dispensed as a gas at 700 bar. Costs are levelised assuming a 10-year lifetime and 8%
discount rate. A total station footprint of 1 759 m2 is assumed. Industrial land values for the United States and Europe are
assumed to be USD 1 642/m2 and USD 242/m2 in China, and include a 23% markup for permitting and preparation. Diesel
refuelling station infrastructure cost of 2% of the sale price of the fuel assumed throughout to account for both capital and
operating costs.
Sources: Station footprints, as well as permitting and preparation costs associated with land purchase, are taken from
Argonne National Laboratory; industrial land values are adapted from CommercialEdge (United States and Europe) and
CEIC (China); station costs are adapted from the European Commission.

Methodology

Total cost of ownership base and sensitivity case parameters by scenario, 2024 and 2030
Parameters for EV chargers and HRS applied to all regions
Base case High cost Low cost
2024 2030 2024 2030 2024 2030
UF 5% 10% 2.5% 5% 10% 20%
EV
charger Charging
350 kW 350 kW 150 kW 150 kW 1 MW 1 MW
power
UF 35% 40% 17.5% 20% 70% 80%
HRS 1.5 5
Fill rate 2.5 kg/min 3.6 kg/min 1.5 kg/min 3.6 kg/min
kg/min kg/min
A payload penalty is only applied in the high-cost case
United States European Union China
Payload
BEV 12.6% 8.6% 10.2% 7.1% 8.1% 5.6%
penalty
FCEV 8.3% 5.9% 4.9% 5.4% 5.4% 3.9%
Only the diesel fuel price was varied as part of the sensitivity analysis

Diesel High Low High Low High Low

price USD/litre 1.39 0.77 2.08 1.44 1.20 0.85
Notes: BEV = Battery electric vehicle; EV = Electric Vehicle; FCEV = Fuel cell electric vehicle; HRS = Hydrogen Refuelling
Station; UF = Utilisation Factor. The “high cost” case corresponds to the scenario where the total cost of ownership is
expected to be the highest. The “payload penalty” is calculated in a previous table of this Annex. HRS fill rate and charging
power impact the total cost of ownership via the “dwell costs”, which is the financial penalty incurred when refuelling takes
longer than the minimum rest period. In the case of charging power the capital costs also vary.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Annex

Driving and refuelling profile

The daily driving range is assumed to be 500 km, where half of the daily distance
is travelled before the driver’s rest period and the other half afterwards. It is
assumed that all truck types refuel during the rest periods. Regulations require
rest periods durations of 20, 30, and 45 minutes in China, the United States, and
the European Union, respectively. It is assumed that the diesel trucks can
sufficiently refuel within the rest periods, and thus incur no dwell costs (see below
for how dwell costs are calculated for battery electric and fuel cell electric trucks).
En route charging is assumed to occur with 350 kW chargers. Battery electric
trucks are also assumed to charge overnight, up to 10 hours, using a 50 kW (peak)
charger. It is assumed that the trucks can operate seven days per week, forty-
eight weeks per year for a total of 168 000 km travelled per year.

Dwell costs for battery electric trucks

Maximum and minimum charge levels of 20% and 80% are maintained to preserve
battery health and for enhanced safety. Battery electric trucks are assumed to
charge for the full length of their rest period and during their stay in depot. If
required, the battery electric truck remains charging after the rest period until the
state of charge is sufficient to complete the remaining 250 km to return to depot,
charge overnight at the depot, and then complete the 250 km required to reach
the rest period the following day. This additional daily charging, if required, is
multiplied by labour cost to give the dwell cost.

Financing period and additional considerations

The truck is purchased with a 100% loan at 5% interest. A discount rate of 8% is
applied throughout. The analysis takes into account the first 5 years after the
purchase of the truck, equivalent to a total distance travelled of 840 000 km. Diesel
trucks have a residual value of 26% throughout, BEV and FCEV trucks are
assumed to also have a 26% residual value when purchased in 2024 and 33% if
purchased in 2030, after haven driven comparable distances over that period to
those modelled in this analysis.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Annex

Annex B: United States regional groupings

Mid West
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North
Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin

Northeast
Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts,
New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont

Pacific
California, Oregon, Washington

Rocky Mountain
Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming

Southeast
Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North
Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia

Southwest
Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas

Annex C: Regional and country groupings

Unless otherwise specified, regional groupings used in the Global EV Outlook and
EV data explorers are as follows:

Africa
Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic
of the Congo, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya,
Kingdom of Eswatini, Libya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique,
Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo (Congo), Rwanda, Senegal, South

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Annex

Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, United Republic of Tanzania (Tanzania), Togo,

Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe and other African countries and territories. 1

Asia Pacific
Australia, Bangladesh, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea),
India, Japan, Korea, Mongolia, Nepal, New Zealand, Pakistan, The People’s
Republic of China (China), Sri Lanka, Chinese Taipei, and other Asia Pacific
countries and territories. 2

Central and South America

Argentina, Plurinational State of Bolivia (Bolivia), Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela
(Venezuela), Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican
Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica,
Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay
and other Central and South American countries and territories. 3

Eurasia
Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, the Russian Federation
(Russia), Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Europe
European Union regional grouping and Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Gibraltar, Iceland, Israel, 4 Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia,
Norway, Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Switzerland, Türkiye, Ukraine and
United Kingdom.

1
Individual data are not available and are estimated in aggregate for: Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cabo Verde, Central African
Republic, Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Liberia, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Sao Tome
and Principe, Seychelles, Sierra Leone and Somalia.
2
Individual data are not available and are estimated in aggregate for: Afghanistan, Bhutan, Cook Islands, Fiji, French
Polynesia, Kiribati, Macau (China), Maldives, New Caledonia, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-
Leste, Tonga and Vanuatu.
3
Individual data are not available and are estimated in aggregate for: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas,
Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Dominica, Falkland
Islands (Malvinas), Grenada, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Pierre and Miquelon, Saint Vincent and
Grenadines, Saint Maarten (Dutch part), Turks and Caicos Islands.
4
The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such
data by the OECD and/or the IEA is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli
settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Annex

European Union
Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, 5 , 6 Czech Republic, Denmark,
Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia,
Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovak
Republic, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden.

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

Central and South America regional grouping and Mexico.

Middle East
Bahrain, Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran), Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syrian Arab Republic (Syria), United Arab Emirates and
Yemen.

North America
Canada, Mexico and United States.

Southeast Asia
Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic
(Lao PDR), Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam.
These countries are all members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN).

Annex D: Glossary
Abbreviations and acronyms
ACC Advanced Clean Cars
ACEA European Automobile Manufacturers Association
ACF Advanced Clean Fleets
ACT Advanced Clean Trucks
AFDC Alternative Fuels Data Center
AFIR Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation
BEV battery electric vehicle

5
Note by Republic of Türkiye: The information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to the southern part of the
island. There is no single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people on the island. Türkiye recognises the
Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable solution is found within the context of the United
Nations, Türkiye shall preserve its position concerning the “Cyprus issue”.
6
Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European Union: The Republic of Cyprus is recognised
by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Türkiye. The information in this document relates to the area
under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Annex

CAAM China Association of Automobile Manufacturers

CAD Canadian dollars
CAFE Corporate average fuel efficiency
CAM Cathode active material
CAPEX capital expenditure
CATL Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited
CNY Yuan renminbi
COP Conference of the Parties
CO2 carbon dioxide
DC direct current
DSO Distribution system operator
EAFO European Alternative Fuels Observatory
EMDE emerging market and developing economy
EPA Environmental Protection Agency
EREV extended range electric vehicle
ERS electric road systems
EU European Union
EV electric vehicle
EVI Electric Vehicle Initiative
EVSE electric vehicle supply equipment
FAME Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles
FCEV fuel cell electric vehicle
GACC General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China
GEC Global Energy and Climate Model
GEVO Global EV Outlook
GHG greenhouse gases
HD heavy duty
HDV heavy-duty vehicle
HEV hybrid electric vehicle
HRS hydrogen refuelling station
H2 hydrogen
ICCT International Council on Clean Transportation
ICE internal combustion engine
ICEV internal combustion engine vehicle
IFC International Finance Corporation
INR Indian rupee
IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency
ITF International Transport Forum
KRW Korean won
LCV light commercial vehicle
LDV light-duty vehicle
LEZ Low emissions zone
LFMP lithium iron manganese phosphate
LFP lithium iron phosphate
Li-S lithium sulphur

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Annex

MD medium-duty
MPV multi-purpose vehicle
NCA lithium nickel cobalt aluminium oxide
NEV new energy vehicle
NEVI National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure
NMC nickel manganese cobalt oxide
NMCA lithium nickel manganese cobalt aluminium oxide
NREL National Renewable Energy Laboratory
NOK Norwegian kroner
NZD New Zealand dollars
OEM original equipment manufacturer
OPEX Operating expenditure
PHEV plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
PLDV passenger light-duty vehicle
PM-E-DRIVE PM Electric Drive Revolution in Innovative Vehicle Enhancement
SEK Swedish kronor
STEPS Stated Policies Scenario
SUV sports utility vehicle
TCO total cost of ownership
TEN-T Trans-European Transport Network
THB Thai baht
TRL technology readiness level
UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
VAT value added tax
VED vehicle excise duty
VND Vietnamese dong
V2G vehicle-to-grid
WLTP Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicle Test Procedure
ZETI Zero-Emission Technology Inventory
ZEVWISE Zero-Emission Vehicle Infrastructure Support and Expansion
2/3W two/three-wheeler

Units of measure
bar bar
GWh gigawatt-hour
kg kilogramme
km kilometre
km/hr kilometres per hour
kW kilowatt
kWh kilowatt-hours
L litre
lb pounds
m metre
mb/d million barrels per day
MW megawatt
m2 metre squared
t tonne

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Global EV Outlook 2025 Annex

t CO2 tonne of carbon dioxide

TWh terawatt-hour
V volt
W watt
Wh/kg watt-hour per kilogramme
Wh/L watt-hour per litre

See the IEA glossary for a further explanation of many of the terms used in this report.

Currency conversion

Market exchange rates (2024) 1 US dollar (USD) equals:

British pound sterling 0.78

Canadian dollar 1.37

Chinese yuan renminbi 7.20

Euro 0.92

Korean won 1 363.37

New Zealand dollar 1.65

Indian rupee 84.60

Thai baht 35.29

PAGE | 171
International Energy Agency (IEA)

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no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect of the
work’s contents (including its completeness or accuracy) and shall not
be responsible for any use of, or reliance on, the work.

Subject to the IEA’s Notice for CC-licenced Content, this

work is licenced under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
International Licence.

Unless otherwise indicated, all material presented in figures and tables is

derived from IEA data and analysis.

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