nature reviews clean technology [Link]

1038/s44359-025-00050-4

Perspective Check for updates

Realistic roles for hydrogen in

the future energy transition
Nathan Johnson 1
, Michael Liebreich 2
, Daniel M. Kammen , Paul Ekins6, Russell McKenna7,8 & Iain Staffell
3,4,5 1

Abstract Sections

Hydrogen has been promoted as a revolutionary fuel for 50 years, yet Introduction

usage is confined to oil refining and fertilizer production. For hydrogen Usage
to advance global decarbonization, many barriers must be overcome. Production
In this Perspective, we examine the challenges hydrogen faces from
Transport and storage
production to usage, assessing its environmental and economic
Sustainability
credentials, controversies and uncertainties. We provide the evidence
base for companies and governments to assess clean hydrogen’s Cost
current and potential future competitiveness. Fuel cell cars and space Policy and investment
heating are among the least promising applications owing to rapid Summary and future
advances in direct electric alternatives. Hydrogen holds potential perspectives
in industry, long-duration energy storage and long-haul transport,
but its competitiveness depends on large-scale deployment yielding
substantial cost reductions. Current production cost estimates range
by a factor of five and suggest that targets for 2030 will be difficult to
achieve, especially once costs for transport and storage are included.
The climate impacts of hydrogen production are also uncertain, with
production from electrolysis or methane gas with carbon capture
potentially increasing system-wide or upstream emissions, alongside
water scarcity and persistent organic pollution. Future research must
resolve these uncertainties, with strategic focus on deploying hydrogen
in priority areas where it is most competitive.

Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, UK. 2Liebreich Associates, London, UK.
1

3
Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA. 4Goldman School of Public Policy,
University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA. 5Department of Nuclear Engineering, University of California, Berkeley,
CA, USA. 6Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UK. 7Chair of Energy Systems
Analysis, Institute of Energy and Process Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. 8Laboratory for Energy
Systems Analysis, PSI, Villigen, Switzerland. e-mail: [Link]@[Link]

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Perspective

Key points contributing 11% of cumulative emissions reductions required to stay

well below 2 °C of warming9, whereas others forecast only judicious
usage in small quantities in which alternatives for reducing emissions
• Hydrogen’s versatility means that it can power many applications; are lacking10. Governments have vacillated towards and away from
however, clean hydrogen should be strategically deployed in hydrogen projects, such as the US fuel cell vehicle programme11 and
areas where it seems likely to have greatest potential for cost and UK hydrogen heating support12.
sustainability benefits compared with alternatives such as direct Hydrogen has high costs, safety concerns and complex infra-
electrification with clean power sources. structure needs13. Hydrogen must be low emission, cost-competitive
with other low-carbon solutions and supported by widespread infra-
• Supply, demand and supporting infrastructure must all develop structure if it is to help mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, yet there
simultaneously to overcome systemic barriers; yet hydrogen’s physical is deep uncertainty across all these criteria. Improved understand-
properties — its low energy density, flammability and propensity to leak ing of hydrogen’s life cycle and consequential emissions has led to
and embrittle metals — impose challenges in terms of cost, safety and debate over the climate impacts of hydrogen production14–16, which
acceptance at all stages. must resolve towards optimizing regional supply chains to minimize
emissions and cost14,17, while overcoming the challenges of integrating
• For decades, forecasts of a clean hydrogen economy have relied hydrogen into existing systems2.
on rapid scale-up driving down costs. However, production costs Clean hydrogen production routes could potentially reduce its
are dominated by engineering and energy inputs and supplemented current climate impacts by 75%14 or increase net emissions15,18. Con-
by transport, storage and usage costs; none of which seems likely tinued cost reduction for electrolysers and high gas prices could make
to exhibit the rapid reductions seen with solar photovoltaics and green hydrogen competitive with blue hydrogen within a decade16, yet
batteries. investment in clean hydrogen is volatile, falling 50% between 2023 and
2024 as production costs rise around the world4. Transport and storage
• To contribute to decarbonization objectives, clean hydrogen must could be efficient with pipelines and bulk storage19,20, but the physical
have low emissions across its entire supply chain. System-level properties of hydrogen pose fundamental challenges2. Hydrogen is not
assessments identify issues with upstream and consequential alone in facing profound barriers. Deep decarbonization with electric-
greenhouse gas emissions from clean hydrogen production, alongside ity faces high costs for distribution, interconnection and long-duration
broader environmental impacts. Several preconditions must be met to storage21, whereas bioenergy is constrained by sustainable resource
deliver sustainable and clean hydrogen across its full life cycle. potential22, and carbon capture and storage (CCS) faces issues around
cost and perceived risks23.
• In the short term, renewable electricity could achieve greater Debate around hydrogen’s role in the energy system is arguably
emissions abatement if used directly to displace fossil fuels in power over-saturated with information, with a new paper on hydrogen pub-
generation, heating or transport, instead of being used for green lished every 20 minutes (Supplementary Note 1). Prominent review
hydrogen production. In the longer term, hydrogen could instead papers cover technology fundamentals24, materials and catalysts25,
facilitate renewables uptake by integrating excess generation into transport and storage26, applications2, sustainability17 and economics27.
power systems. These studies call for further research from the materials up to the sys-
tems level, recommending interdisciplinary collaboration to address
• Low-carbon hydrogen will be essential to decarbonize its existing the complex challenges faced by hydrogen production, storage and
applications such as petrochemicals and fertilizers (~2% of global CO2 usage24,26. However, few have systematically identified the conditions
emissions), or in applications in which decarbonization alternatives or applications in which hydrogen could offer a competitive route for
are prohibitively expensive, such as steelmaking, heavy transport and decarbonization.
long-duration energy storage. Hydrogen strategies should prioritize In this Perspective, we review applications in which hydrogen
and support these areas to achieve the greatest impact. could become competitive against low-carbon alternatives in the
near-term future, and how to overcome the challenges it faces in doing
so. We first consider the competitiveness of hydrogen in the context of
Introduction its usage, production, transport and storage. We then focus on sustain-
The 2020s are seeing a rapid transition towards renewable electricity ability and cost, which are key factors governing hydrogen’s value to
and battery electric vehicles; however, vital progress is slower in sectors decarbonized energy systems, and then developments in the industry
where electrification alone cannot mitigate emissions, particularly in and government policy that aim to realize this value.
industry, shipping and aviation1. Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier
that can be produced and used in many ways2,3 (Fig. 1a) and is seen as Usage
particularly helpful in these hard-to-abate sectors2. These qualities Global demand for hydrogen is just under 100 Mt (ref. 28), a fivefold
have driven academic interest and financial investment in a vision of increase29 since 1975, but only 3% of global final energy consumption30
hydrogen as a fuel for the future2,4. (Fig. 1b). Almost all hydrogen is produced from fossil fuels (Fig. 1c) and
However, the ‘hydrogen economy’ envisioned since the 1970s5,6 used in industry: 50% for ammonia and methanol production and 45%
has failed to break its repeated ‘hype cycles’7. Currently, hydrogen is for petroleum refining28 (Fig. 1d). However, hydrogen has the poten-
used in petroleum refining and fertilizer production2,3, but has lim- tial to be used in many applications (Box 1), including chemicals31,
ited roles elsewhere in the global energy system. Hydrogen’s future portable power32, power stations33, residential heat and power34, per-
role is uncertain, both in terms of volumes and applications. Some sonal vehicles35, buses and heavy goods vehicles36, shipping37,38 and
projections forecast clean hydrogen scaling 500-fold8 to 2050 and aeroplanes39. Research has begun to clarify sectors where hydrogen is

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Perspective

unlikely to be competitive (such as home heating and light vehicles)40,41 Heavy-duty and long-haul transport
and develop areas in which hydrogen has better prospects, such as In contrast to personal transport, hydrogen could offer more promise
hydrogen-based green steelmaking42,43. for heavy-duty vehicles in select use cases64. The advantages of fuel cells
There is large uncertainty over which sectors will see the highest over batteries57,58 may be more pronounced for vehicles that cover
uptake of hydrogen. Scenarios produced by institutions such as the longer distances, have higher utilization and payloads that are sensitive
IEA, IRENA and the Hydrogen Council favour hydrogen in transport to weight restrictions65. Captive fleets such as forklift trucks, deliv-
(16% mean share of final energy demand), followed by industry (3%) and ery vehicles and public buses would require fewer refuelling stations
buildings (1%)44. By contrast, decarbonization scenarios produced by than for cars, as they have dedicated and more concentrated routes57.
integrated assessment models see the greatest penetration of hydro- Hydrogen’s ability to decouple refuelling from electricity supply could
gen in industry (3%) and much lower penetrations in transport (1%) help to mitigate the challenges of electric vehicle charging during peak
and buildings (0%)45. demand in terms of storage and demand shifting66, but the falling cost
The climate impacts and costs of clean technologies are highly of batteries erodes this advantage56.
uncertain, context-specific and subject to change over time. This Yet, heavy-duty fuel cell vehicles also face challenges. Longer life-
uncertainty makes precise quantitative comparisons among clean times, higher utilization and longer trips compared with cars mean that
hydrogen, fossil fuels and other low-carbon alternatives impractical. fuel cell trucks must become both more durable and efficient57,64. The
Instead, qualitative comparisons consider hydrogen’s commercial typical lifetime of fuel cell heavy-duty vehicles is around 400,000 km
viability or decarbonization value across a range of applications, given (250,000 miles), less than one-quarter that of equivalent diesel vehi-
both current status and potential future improvements (Fig. 2). There cles, and the efficiency advantage over combustion engines is much
are both potential trade-offs and synergies between clean hydrogen smaller for fuel cell trucks compared with cars (<20% versus 100–
and alternatives. For example, hydrogen could increase competition 200%)67. Battery electric trucks can have long lifetimes and potentially
for clean electricity, meaning that there is less available to replace lower ownership costs than diesel trucks, particularly if fast charging or
coal and gas power to decarbonize electricity supply18. Alternatively, battery swapping is available to reduce onboard battery capacity68,69.
hydrogen-based long-duration energy storage could enable renewable By contrast, fuel cell trucks are unlikely to reach cost parity until the
electricity to be deployed more rapidly by reducing curtailment and 2040s even with widespread deployment, owing to high fuel costs70.
improving its economics20. Hydrogen is proposed as a leading route to decarbonizing both
shipping38 and aviation71, where direct electrification is more chal-
Consumer technologies lenging owing to the size and weight of the required batteries37,71. Elec-
High-value consumer applications such as home heating and personal tric passenger aircraft would require battery packs with gravimetric
transport have attracted much research and investment, but these sec- energy densities in the range of 1,800–2,500 Wh kg−1, compared with
tors face strong competition from alternative technologies. Despite around 400 Wh kg−1 (ref. 72) achieved by 2024. However, hydrogen
past optimism46,47, the academic consensus is that hydrogen will not aeroplanes face similar challenges, with the low volumetric energy
be used at scale for heating buildings41, as it is less efficient and more density of liquid hydrogen requiring four times the fuel storage space
costly than district heating or electric heat pumps48,49. Hydrogen boil- of kerosene, becoming ‘the dominant driver of aircraft configuration’39.
ers are yet to be adopted at any meaningful scale for space heating. For Compressed hydrogen gas cannot deliver the thousands of kilometres
example, the UK cancelled its hydrogen heating pilots in 2023–2024 in some ships and planes must travel without refuelling39,73.
part because the source of hydrogen supply would not be available12. By Conversion to hydrogen derivatives such as ammonia, metha-
contrast, Japan has half a million homes heated by ENEFARM fuel cell nol and e-fuels helps to overcome the issue of low volumetric energy
combined heat and power systems50, but these are fuelled by fossil gas, density64, but incurs losses from transformation and increases capi-
and even there heat pump water heaters outsell fuel cell equivalents tal and maintenance costs74,75. Ammonia has drawn much interest
by a factor of 10. from the shipping industry71,76, with potential to reduce emissions by
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have been proposed as a potential 90% compared with heavy fuel oil73, but imposes stringent storage
replacement for internal combustion engines to decarbonize the and handling constraints77. E-fuels could substitute fossil fuels like-
personal vehicle market. Academic studies have compared cost, for-like, but are inefficient relative to direct electrification (requiring
convenience, efficiency and environmental impacts51–53 of fuel cell 2–14 times more electricity input), and therefore expensive compared
vehicles and battery electric vehicles, with mixed results depending with electricity or pure hydrogen. They also contain carbon, which must
on assumed fuel production pathways and driving patterns. Studies be captured from power plants or the atmosphere to provide a low
still reach opposite conclusions on whether fuel cells54 or batteries55 (or zero) carbon fuel64,75. Using regular fossil fuels and then sequester-
are better on these grounds. The high gravimetric energy density ing the carbon (so-called book and credit) has the same climate impact
of hydrogen56 enables longer ranges, faster refuelling and lighter but looks set to be much cheaper75.
vehicles57,58, yet commercially available fuel cell vehicles have higher The main alternatives to hydrogen-derived fuels in shipping and
capital and running costs than battery equivalents35,59. However, such aviation are biofuels (biomethane, biomethanol and bio-jet fuel)78.
debate might now be irrelevant, as battery electric vehicles outsell Similar to e-fuels, the advantage of biofuels is that they can be dropped
fuel cell vehicles by a factor of 1,000:1 worldwide, with annual growth into existing engines without modifications, but they also carry a
of 36%60 in 2023 compared with a 40% market contraction for fuel cell substantial price premium78. Biofuels might have lower emissions
vehicles61,62. In 2023, more Ferraris were sold than all makes of fuel cell than hydrogen-derived fuels, but this depends heavily on land-use-
vehicle combined (Supplementary Note 2). Summing all national change emissions from biomass supply chains38. Life-cycle emissions
targets yields 4.5 million fuel cell vehicles to be sold63 cumulative to are widely debated (for example, US corn-based ethanol)79,80, raising
2040 — around one-third of the number of battery electric vehicles questions about whether regional standards can be met81. Biofuels are
sold in 2023 alone60. preferred to hydrogen and e-fuels for aviation, owing to mandates for

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Perspective

Biomass Coal mine H2 production from various sources

Use cases
Transportation routes
Long-haul CCS
aviation Long-haul
shipping

Long-duration
Gasification energy storage
Steel mill
C + ½O2 + H2O → H2 + CO2 Fertilizer
plant
Hydrogen
production
plant

Autothermal reforming Electrolysis

CH4 + ½O2 + H2O → 3H2 + CO2 Pipelines Hydrogen H2O → H2 + ½O2
transporting
Steam methane reforming ships Electrolyser
CH4 + 2H2O → 4H2 + CO2
Hydrogen- Hydrogen-
Methane pyrolysis transporting powered
CH4 → 2H2 + C trucks trucks

Renewables
Natural Nuclear
hydrogen power
well plants

CO2
storage
Oil–gas well

CCS

b 700 c Clean
By-product (1 Mt)
(15 Mt)
600 Renewables
Nuclear
Global energy supply and demand (EJ)

Biomass
500 Coal Gas
(20 Mt) (59 Mt)
Gas
400
Other
Buildings
300 d
Steel Transport
Oil (5 Mt) (0.03 Mt)
Transport
200 Methanol
(16 Mt)
Industry Refining
100 (42 Mt)
Coal Ammonia
Power (32 Mt)

0
Primary energy supply Hydrogen Final energy demand

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Perspective

Fig. 1 | Hydrogen in global energy supply and demand. a, The main routes global share of end-use sectors in hydrogen demand28, coloured according to
for producing, distributing and storing hydrogen considered here, with some demand in part b, highlighting how it is almost exclusively used in industry. All
key use cases illustrated (Supplementary Note 3). b, Global primary energy data cover 2022. Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier that can be produced,
supply split by energy source, global hydrogen production from all sources distributed and consumed in many ways, but is currently a small component of
and global final energy demand split by sector275. c, The global share of sources the global energy system and largely produced from fossil fuels. CCS, carbon
for producing hydrogen28, coloured according to supply in part b. d, The capture and storage.

low-carbon fuels82 and lower costs74, whereas the outlook for shipping This process has a lower round-trip efficiency (30–40%) than estab-
is less certain38,83. In the longer term, if low-cost hydrogen is available lished pumped hydro or compressed air storage (70–80%)20,56. Yet,
at scale, its derivatives and e-fuels could weaken the dependence on the extreme volumes of energy storage required, and the need
biofuels in shipping and aviation75. Yet, e-fuels cannot fully decarbonize for minimal cost per unit energy, mean that geological storage
aviation or shipping without simultaneous reductions in traffic, owing of hydrogen20,56,93,95 and its derivatives99 are considered as viable
to economic and resource constraints84. low-carbon solutions100. The main competitors are novel thermal
storage approaches, long-duration metal–air batteries, long-distance
Industrial uses interconnection, demand response and dispatchable low-carbon
Energy-intensive industries are the largest hydrogen consumers3, and generation (such as gas power with CCS), with competitiveness
clean hydrogen presents the only current large-scale option for decar- depending on fuel and electricity costs, the duration of storage and
bonizing fertilizer, petrochemicals and other processes that require the service provided56,100.
hydrogen as feedstock85. Replacing 97 Mt of hydrogen produced from
fossil fuels in 2023 with clean sources could reduce global emissions Production
by 0.9 GtCO2 per year (ref. 3). Ammonia production accounts for 1% of Hydrogen can be produced in ways that differ in cost, materials
global energy-related CO2 emissions, representing a large market for requirements, environmental impacts and system integration101,102
replacing fossil-fuel-derived hydrogen64,86. These are price-sensitive (Fig. 1). Different pathways are referred to using colours, giving rise
industries so — in the absence of effective carbon pricing — any cost to the hydrogen rainbow. However, there are calls to classify hydrogen
premium for clean hydrogen erects a barrier to entry87. Current policy based on an international emissions accounting framework rather
support is not yet sufficient to offset this price disadvantage, with the than colours103.
world’s largest planned clean ammonia plant cancelled in 2024 owing The 2020s have seen electrolysers move from small scale to mass
to lack of demand. production, with global electrolyser assembly capacity quadrupling
Steel production is the source of 8% of global energy-related CO2 between 2021 and 2024 to 41 GW per year (ref. 3). Advances have seen
emissions88 with relatively few options for decarbonizing89. Virgin costs fall two-thirds in 10 years104,105; materials improvements for pro-
steel is typically produced using coking coal to reduce iron ore88. ton exchange membrane (PEM) and alkaline electrolysers24 and solid
Hydrogen can replace this via the hydrogen direct reduction of iron oxide electrolysers demonstrated efficiencies of up to 80–85% lower
(H2-DRI) process, which if smelted in an electric arc furnace yields heating value (~95–100% higher heating value)106,107. Similarly, hydrogen
up to 97% emission reductions43. The process, however, requires produced from fossil fuels combined with CCS — referred to as blue
ore with higher iron content and might produce an inferior grade of hydrogen — has become both a nascent industry and a key component
steel compared with traditional blast furnaces90. The 2020s saw the of national hydrogen strategies3,108.
first large-scale hydrogen steel pilot plants, with a 2025 target for The key benefits of blue hydrogen are that it can be supplied con-
commercial production. The only existing low-carbon alternative is stantly (independent of intermittent energy sources), relies primarily
producing steel with CCS91. Similar to H2-DRI, CCS has not yet been on existing natural gas infrastructure and is the cheapest method of
deployed commercially in steelmaking, and both technologies will clean hydrogen production3,109. However, key issues remain around its
increase production costs, so it is not clear which is the favourable overall climate impact and reliance on fossil fuels, prompting concerns
alternative89. around long-term lock-in110. Blue hydrogen also inherits the challenges
of volatility in gas prices and developing CCS infrastructure, which has
Long-duration energy storage not met previous expectations despite considerable investment23.
The global growth in renewable energy generation is primarily com- However, hydrogen produced from biomass with CCS could contrib-
ing from wind and solar photovoltaics (PVs)45, increasing the chal- ute to global carbon dioxide removal, albeit competing for limited
lenges of balancing supply shortfalls and demand peaks without bioenergy resource22. Opinion is, therefore, divided on whether blue
fossil-fuelled backup92. Batteries can balance intraday fluctuations hydrogen should play any part110, be a short-term solution to establish
in solar PV and demand (as lithium ion batteries can deliver power for clean hydrogen markets while other forms of hydrogen scale-up16, or a
1–4 h); however, intermittency over the timescale of days, weeks and longer-term solution in its own right111–113.
months requires large storage capacity and low energy costs20,56,93. Green hydrogen, produced via electrolysis with renewable elec-
Long-duration, large-scale compressed hydrogen gas storage has seen tricity, has its own advantages and drawbacks. Renewables are becom-
growing interest in the 2020s — using surplus electricity to produce ing both cheaper and more abundant1, and flexibly producing hydrogen
hydrogen via electrolysis and converting it back to electricity to meet can support their integration into power systems20. However, green
supply shortfalls94–96. hydrogen is currently expensive to produce114 and can draw renew-
Large volumes of hydrogen can be stored in salt caverns, hydro- able electricity away from direct usage, which would achieve larger
carbon fields and other porous rocks, or in underground pipes97,98. emissions reductions18. Meeting current global hydrogen demand

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Perspective

Box 1 | Hydrogen uses and storage

Key hydrogen usage technologies of gasoline (4.8 MJ l−1 at 700 bar)26,281,282. It requires 7–12% of the input
Fuel cells. Fuel cells are electrochemical devices that convert the energy to reach 700 bar (ref. 2), common for carbon-fibre tanks in
chemical energy in hydrogen and oxygen into electrical energy, with vehicles83,283. On a larger scale, compressed hydrogen can be stored
water and heat as by-products. They use catalysts to split hydrogen in underground caverns and other geological formations, although
molecules into protons and electrons and then recombine them with contamination imposes costs for applications requiring high-purity
oxygen to produce water and electricity: 2H2 + O2 → 2H2O. hydrogen281,284.
Many fuel cell technologies exist278. Proton exchange membrane
fuel cells are widely used owing to their low-operating temperature Liquid hydrogen. Hydrogen can be liquified by cooling to –253 °C.
(60–80 °C), high power density and flexible operation2. They typically Liquid hydrogen offers one-quarter of the energy density of
use perfluorosulfonic acid polymer membranes and platinum cata­ gasoline (8.6 MJ l−1)281,285 but requires 25–30% of the energy input2.
lysts162,279. Alternatively, solid oxide fuel cells are used in large-scale Complex cooling systems consume yet more energy to maintain
power generation and combined heat and power. They use ceramic cryogenic temperatures, and ~1% of the hydrogen is lost each day
composites that operate at high temperatures (600–800 °C), giving to boil-off281,283,286.
high efficiency, fuel flexibility and cheaper nickel catalysts154,162.
Chemicals. Hydrogen can produce synthetic fuels75. Although
Combustion. Boilers, furnaces and turbines combust hydrogen convenient and economical to distribute and store, they are
gas to generate heat for various applications. Natural gas burning inefficient and costly to produce287. Ammonia (NH3) and methanol
technologies can be designed to run on dual fuel, but existing (CH3OH) are leading candidates, offering twice the volumetric
infrastructure requires retrofit owing to hydrogen’s higher flame energy density of liquid hydrogen, at favourable pressures and
speed, lower energy density and material compatibility issues280. temperatures281.

Conversion. Converting hydrogen into other chemicals by Alternative carriers. Hydrogen can be combined with other elements
combining it with other elements can produce a range of products and stored in solid carriers or liquid organic hydrogen carriers282,285.
including ammonia, methanol, ethanol and e-fuels. Neither are commercialized yet26, as key challenges remain for
delivering efficient and cost-effective systems288,289. Dehydrogenation
Key hydrogen storage and transport options requires around 30% (solid)281,290 or 20% (liquid)291 of the hydrogen’s
Compressed gas. Hydrogen is typically produced at low pressures, energy content, which can be partially offset by the energy captured
so compression can increase its energy density to one-seventh that during hydrogenation.

(~100 MtH2 per year) would require 1.25 times the entire global fleet projects that total just 3% of the announced volume (2.5 Mt of green
of wind and solar power (~4,000 TWh output in 2023)30. Competition and 1.5 Mt of blue117), and only 7% of existing hydrogen projects have
for clean water has driven research towards saline electrolysis, using been delivered on time121.
sea water without prior desalination115. Projections for hydrogen production have consistently overesti-
Pink hydrogen, produced via high-temperature steam electrolysis mated growth rates by a factor of 2–3 and continue to anticipate uptake
using heat and electricity from nuclear generators, has complementary much faster than seen over the past 50 years (Fig. 3a). Deep decar-
advantages. Unlike renewables, nuclear power can provide a constant bonization scenarios from organizations such as the IEA and IRENA
supply of hydrogen and is more efficient if waste reactor heat is used. see 2040 clean hydrogen demand ranging from 50 MtH2 to 145 MtH2
Trials are reportedly underway in the USA and the UK, whereas Swe- (interquartile range) (1.6–4.9% of the global final energy demand)44. By
den has seen the first commercial supply agreement. However, the contrast, similar scenarios (<2 °C) produced by integrated assessment
high cost of electricity and continued uncertainty over future nuclear models see a slower transition (Fig. 3b), with 2040 clean hydrogen
growth compound supply chain issues116, with no large-scale projects demand being 15–50 MtH2 (0.4–1.3% of the global energy). Projections
scheduled for construction117. Naturally occurring hydrogen (orange are higher in scenarios with more ambitious mitigation44 (Fig. 3c–e),
or white) could in theory be relatively low cost, but has limited geo- lower hydrogen technology costs122 and when fewer alternatives are
graphic availability and unproven viability118. Renewed interests in considered44. The latter may explain why non-academic scenarios, in
both photocatalytic water splitting (solar-to-hydrogen)119 and meth- which hydrogen’s potential is often evaluated in isolation, see higher
ane pyrolysis (CH4 → 2H2 + C(s))120 have led to discussion of industrial uptake than in integrated assessment models, in which hydrogen
scale-up (Supplementary Note 3). competes with other technologies.
Nearly 1,900 clean hydrogen projects had been announced glob- Constraints on the pace of technology diffusion also influence
ally by 2024, totalling 120 Mt per year production117 by 2030 (note uptake. Global electrolysis capacity must increase 6,000-fold between
1 MtH2 ≈ 0.12 EJ = 33.3 TWh at lower heating value, thus 100 MtH2 2021 and 2050 to meet the 1.5 °C target of IRENA, compared with a
per year equates to 5.75 million barrels of oil per day). Announced 10-fold capacity increase in renewables123. If electrolysis matched
projects comprise 98 Mt of green hydrogen (requiring 422 GW of maximum historical growth rates for wind and solar, green hydro-
electrolysers121), 19 Mt of blue hydrogen and less than 1 Mt from all gen supply is constrained to 100 Mt per year by 2040, <3.3% of global
other sources117. Although half the announced projects are under con- energy demand123. Collectively, projections suggest that clean hydro-
struction or have reached final investment decision, these are smaller gen is likely to be scarce until 2040 and perhaps beyond, implying

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Perspective

that it should be used in applications with the greatest economic East and North Africa to Europe129. IRENA projects 200 Mt per year of
advantage and emissions impact. long-distance hydrogen trade by 2050 between 63 markets130, primarily
into Europe. Another option is to site energy-intensive industries near
Transport and storage cheap hydrogen sources114,131, exporting products rather than hydro-
The physical properties of hydrogen, namely, low density, embrittle- gen. Several strategies mention importing or exporting clean steel
ment of metals and leakage owing to small molecules, make distribution (produced via H2-DRI)128. Many of the most competitive applications of
and storage challenging. Hydrogen has the highest gravimetric energy hydrogen, for example, refining, chemicals and long-duration energy
density of any element (120 MJ kg−1, 2.5 times that of methane); however, storage, are centralized and would not require extensive distribution132.
its volumetric energy density is very low (10 MJ m−3 at atmospheric Compressed hydrogen can be distributed via pipeline, which
pressure, 30% that of methane)26,124. A greater volume must be moved is most efficient and economical for transporting large volumes
or stored to provide the same energy as natural gas, necessitating larger over shorter distances133–135. Pipelines have high upfront costs and
infrastructure. Three options to increase density are compression, liq- become less economical over longer distances135,136. Globally, around
uification or conversion into other forms (Box 1). No hydrogen storage 4,500 km of hydrogen pipelines exist, compared with 1.4 million km
medium currently offers high energy density with low cost and high of gas pipelines. Hydrogen supply chains could evolve around these
efficiency, while also being convenient and safe to handle26,83. existing networks19,83, although they potentially face competition with
The challenges of moving hydrogen can be reduced by produc- transporting CO2 from carbon capture or biogas137,138. Both large-scale
ing it locally using existing electricity and gas infrastructures125,126. electrification and hydrogen usage will require new supporting
However, capacity constraints, renewable productivity and cost dif- infrastructure, with broadly similar costs for a given distance when
ferentials could create a mismatch between economical hydrogen comparing pipelines with electricity transmission lines139.
production and hydrogen demand127. Most government strategies men- Existing natural gas pipelines could be repurposed to reduce
tion international trade in hydrogen128, with key trade routes proposed upfront costs140. However, the lower density of hydrogen reduces
among the USA, India and Australia to East Asia, and from the Middle capacity141, and gas pipelines require upgraded internal coatings,

a b 10
c 100
Primary alternative
Oil Oil

Passenger vehicle sales (millions)

Biomass and biogas CCS and others
Heavy-duty truck sales (millions)

1 10
Electricity and batteries None
Battery
0.1 1
Necessary Battery
Refining Hydrogenation Fertilizer/ammonia Methanol
0.01 0.1

Fuel cell Fuel cell

Possibly 0.001 0.01

Long-haul shipping Long-haul aviation Chemical feedstock

0.0001 0.001
Primary steel Long-duration energy storage Biogas upgrading
2015 2019 2023 2015 2019 2023

Unlikely
Short-duration energy storage High-temperature industrial heat
d 100
Residential heating sales (millions)

Short-haul shipping Commercial and district heating

Gas
10
Light aviation Generators Heavy-duty vehicles
Heat pump
1

Uncompetitive
Light-duty vehicles Trains UPS Passenger cars 0.1

Bulk power generation Motorcycles Bulk e-fuels Fuel cell

0.01
Low-temperature industrial heat Residential heating

0.001
2015 2019 2023

Fig. 2 | Applications for hydrogen, qualitatively ranked in terms of and combustion engine passenger vehicles. d, Regional annual sales of fuel cell
competitiveness against alternatives. a, The main applications for hydrogen micro combined heat and power systems, electric heat pumps and gas boilers
across all sectors grouped according to their current and potential future and furnaces, covering the USA, Europe and Japan. The derivation for part a
economic advantage against alternatives. Ranking derived from the ‘Hydrogen and sources are provided in Supplementary Note 2. There are various uses for
Ladder’ and ‘Hydrogen Policy’s Narrow Path’132 reports. b, Global annual hydrogen, but many of these are considered uncompetitive and have lower
sales of fuel cell, battery electric and combustion engine heavy-duty trucks. uptake than alternatives. CCS, carbon capture and storage; UPS, uninterruptible
c, Global annual sales of fuel cell, battery electric (excluding plug-in hybrids) power supply.

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Perspective

improved welding and in-line safety monitoring142 to withstand embrit- of Europe’s gas network converted by 2050 to facilitate a transition to
tlement and increased wear143,144 and more pumps and compressors to hydrogen145, whereas critics argue that ‘even if technical and economic
maintain pressure and flow136,144. Proponents see up to three-quarters barriers are overcome, serious safety and environmental risks remain’146.

a Total hydrogen production from selected historical scenarios b Recent projections of clean hydrogen production
1,400 700
Kelley, 1976 (7–12% CAGR) AR6 scenarios
Barbir, 1993 (15% CAGR) <1.5 °C, n = 133
Nakićenović, 1998 (6% CAGR) AR6 scenarios
Shell, 2001 (6–10% CAGR) 1.5–2.5 °C, n = 331
1,200 Barreto, 2003 (10% CAGR) 600 AR6 scenarios
IEA, 2005 (1–3% CAGR) >2.5 °C, n = 116
GEA, 2012 (9% CAGR) Historical production
Historical production (3% CAGR) Recent projections
from 17 organizations
Recent projections from
Global hydrogen production (Mt per year)

1,000 500

Clean hydrogen production (Mt per year)

10 organizations

1.5

800 400 1.0

0.5

0.0
2015 2020 2025
600 300

400 200

200 100

0 0
1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2010 2030 2050 2070

c AR6 <1.5 ºC d AR6 1.5–2.5 ºC e AR6 >2.5 ºC

↑Fossil
100% 100% ↑Fossil 100%
↓Clean
↓Clean
75% 75% 75%

50% 50% 50%

↑Fossil
↓Clean
25% 25% 25%

0% 0% 0%
2020 2040 2060 2020 2040 2060 2020 2040 2060

Coal Gas Bioenergy Bioenergy CCS Coal CCS Gas CCS Electricity

Fig. 3 | Projections of global hydrogen production across 100 years. a, Total database, coloured according to global temperature outcomes in 2100. Sources
hydrogen production (high and low carbon) from selected historical scenarios are provided in Supplementary Note 6. c–e, The projected share of hydrogen
(lines) and recent projections (boxes), set against actual production. Boxes produced from all sources in AR6 scenarios, which limit 2100 warming to <1.5 °C
represent the median and interquartile range; whiskers represent minimum and (part c), 1.5–2.5 °C (part d) and >2.5 °C (part e), showing the volume-weighted
maximum. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of each scenario is given in mean across all scenarios. Areas below the white line denote clean forms of
the legend. b, Clean hydrogen production (excluding unabated fossil fuels) from hydrogen production shown in part b. There is large potential for hydrogen with
integrated assessment model scenarios (shaded areas) and recent non-academic wide uncertainty, but projections have historically been higher than outturn.
projections (boxes), set against actual production. Shaded areas and thick lines CCS, carbon capture and storage.
show the interquartile range and median across 580 scenarios from the IPCC AR6

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Perspective

Blending hydrogen into natural gas networks is also proposed geopolitical sensitivity161,162, although it remains unclear whether hydro-
as a transition route, and several countries have established 2030 gen production, alternative clean technologies or fossil fuels present
targets for blending63. The lower energy density of hydrogen means greater geopolitical challenges163,164.
that blending delivers proportionately lower CO2 savings: 6–7% emis- Material extraction and processing are environmentally degrad-
sions reduction for 20% blended2,147. Its advantage is making hydrogen ing, releasing heavy metals, toxic and radioactive materials that con-
usable by any gas-burning infrastructure, so consumer appliances do taminate air, water and soils165,166. Material selection critically affects
not need replacement, but this in turn erodes the value of hydrogen: the environmental footprint of electrolyser manufacturing167. There
reducing a high-value energy carrier and chemical feedstock to its heat are similar concerns around the mineral requirements of solar PV
value only. The European Parliament considers blending the offtake of and wind161,162. Batteries are particularly material-intensive (battery
‘last resort’ to help overcome the challenge of scaling supply, demand electric vehicles require six times more minerals than petrol or diesel
and hydrogen infrastructure simultaneously148. vehicles)162, but although they require more critical minerals than
Ships provide an alternative means of transport over longer dis- hydrogen technologies, they require less rare-earth metals161,162. The
tances or when land transport is not possible. However, the volumetric competition between clean energy technologies for different mate-
energy density of liquid hydrogen is particularly challenging83, and rials could constrain deployment127,168. Making hydrogen supplies
ports are unprepared for international hydrogen trade149. The size more sustainable will rely on decreasing catalyst loadings, improving
of canals and ports constrains ship volumes, and 2.5 liquid hydrogen material recyclability and reuse and developing electrolysers that use
ships are required to carry the same quantity of energy as one liquid earth-abundant materials28,154.
natural gas (LNG) carrier150. Repurposing the world’s largest Q-max
LNG carrier to transport liquid hydrogen would reduce its capacity Climate impacts
from 1.7 TWh to 0.7 TWh. Higher boil-off losses (1% per day, nine times For hydrogen to expand from industrial feedstock to a climate change
greater than that for LNG) and cooling loads further increase this mitigation strategy, it must be low-carbon across the full life cycle.
gap with distance, although losses could be reduced with technical Legislation in the UK and USA defines clean hydrogen as below
progress150. The cryogenic temperatures and high pressures required 2.4 kgCO2 per kgH2 and 4.0 kgCO2 per kgH2, respectively, while the EU
for storage, flammability of hydrogen and the venting of boil-off gases has thresholds of 3.0 kgCO2 per kgH2 (EU Taxonomy) and 3.4 kgCO2
all pose safety issues151. per kgH2 (RED II)103. Conventional (grey) hydrogen emits 10–12 kgCO2e
Hydrogen can be shipped as ammonia (NH3) and other hydrogen- per kgH2 (refs. 3,14,29) (300–360 gCO2e kWh−1), similar to the US grid
derived fuels. Additional processing produces vectors that are more electricity in 2023 (354 gCO2 kWh−1)169, and ~50% higher than burning
convenient to transport and store, but lowers round-trip efficiency and natural gas directly due to conversion efficiency.
increases costs26,75,152. Japan’s proposal to import ammonia to combust Geospatial modelling of green hydrogen productivity170 and meth-
for electricity generation only offers a roundtrip efficiency of 20% ane emissions from natural gas supply chains171 have improved under-
and would reportedly cost ~$200–300 MWh−1 (more than twice the standing of climate impacts of hydrogen. Both green and blue hydrogen
cost of renewables)153. Transporting hydrogen via liquid tankers or can reduce emissions, but their climate impacts are non-negligible and
compressed tube trailers is also technically feasible and can be consid- highly-context specific15,170 (Fig. 4).
ered for ‘last-mile’ distribution where pipelines are impractical2. The Green hydrogen is assumed to have zero greenhouse gas foot-
low volumetric density of compressed hydrogen gas makes tankers print across most proposed regulations and certification schemes
inefficient and expensive: replacing one diesel tanker with hydrogen worldwide103. Electrolysis produces no direct emissions but does
requires an estimated 16 times more deliveries. have embodied emissions from manufacturing generation and conver-
sion technologies and consequential emissions from its impacts on the
Sustainability wider electricity system170. Per megawatt of capacity, manufacturing
A fundamental motivation for clean hydrogen production and use is to generates 510–575 tCO2e for wind power172,173, 615–1,050 tCO2e for solar
reduce the environmental impacts of energy consumption, especially power174–176 and 80–190 tCO2e for electrolysers177,178. Emissions from
climate impacts. However, hydrogen supply chains affect resource each are declining owing to design improvements and falling emis-
usage127,154, water consumption127,155, air quality156,157 and persistent sions from energy inputs175,179. Given the similarity in footprints across
organic pollution158,159. technologies, the carbon intensity of green hydrogen depends primar-
ily on renewables productivity, which is strongly location-specific170
Resource impacts (Fig. 4a). Hydrogen from wind has a lower emissions intensity than
Hydrogen technologies rely on catalysts which include critical minerals solar PV primarily owing to its higher productivity170,180. Planned green
(such as nickel in steam methane reformers, alkaline and solid oxide hydrogen projects have average estimated emissions of 2.9 kgCO2e per
technologies), rare-earth elements (yttrium, gadolinium, lanthanum, kgH2 (95% CI 0.8–4.6)170 and can reduce emissions by 50–90% compared
scandium and cerium in solid oxide technologies) and precious metals with grey hydrogen127.
(platinum, palladium, iridium and ruthenium in PEM technologies)28,154. Direct use of renewable electricity often has larger emissions
Catalyst loadings vary strongly between technologies (900 kg MW−1 reductions than if the electricity is converted to hydrogen18,181. Regula-
of nickel in alkaline electrolysers compared with 300 g MW−1 plati- tions therefore seek to ensure that green hydrogen supports — rather
num and 700 g MW−1 iridium in PEM electrolysers) and are expected to than hinders — decarbonization. The EU Delegated Acts182 and the US
reduce rapidly with technological improvement160. Even with improved Inflation Reduction Act 45 V production tax credits introduced three
catalyst loadings, some materials may be in short supply, for example, criteria for hydrogen production projects to receive support182,183.
dysprosium and iridium, because annual production must double or First, the additionality rule precludes using renewable electricity that
triple to meet hydrogen demand in ambitious climate scenarios127. would have been consumed otherwise. This rule implies that dedi-
These materials gained attention in the 2020s owing to their cost and cated renewable capacity is built for each electrolysis plant184,185, or

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a b LH2 shipping transport distance (km)

4,000
3,000
2,000

5,000
4,500
3,500
2,500
1,000
1,500
500
75
2

Emissions intensity (kgCO2e per kgH2)

50

Emissions intensity (kgCO2e kWh–1)

1
25
0 0

5 Transport 150
Losses
4 Conversion 125
Reconversion 100
3 Storage
75
2
50
1 25

0 0
Embodied emissions intensity (kgCO2e per kgH2)

500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
<0.5 0.5–1 1–1.5 1.5–2 2–3 3–4 >4
Pipeline transport distance (km)

c d Production Transformation Distribution Usage

Global average
leakage PEM electrolysis H2 pipeline 1,000 km PEM fuel cell
20 600
Emissions intensity (kgCO2e per kgH2)

60% (56–64%), n = 70 95% (93–97%), n = 7 37% (34–40%), n = 18

Emissions intensity (gCO2e kWh–1)

18 540
US average Alkaline electrolysis Compression 500 bar LH2 ship 5,000 km Solid oxide fuel cell
16 480
leakage 62% (56–65%), n = 69 89% (88–92%), n = 5 96% (95–97%), n = 3 50% (45–53%), n = 20
14 420
12 360 Solid oxide electrolysis Compression 900 bar NH3 pipeline 1,000 km Hydrogen boiler
77% (70–82%), n = 25 86% (85–90%), n = 5 99% (99–99%), n = 1 96% (94–98%), n = 2
10 300
8 240 SMR Liquefaction NH3 ship 5,000 km Hydrogen turbine
6 180 77% (74–79%), n = 14 73% (70–76%), n = 8 98% (97–98%), n = 2 40% (37–46%), n = 3

4 120 SMR and CCS Ammonia SMR and CCS

2 60 76% (74–77%), n = 4 83% (82–84%), n = 2 40% (35–45%), n = 3
0 0
Coal gasification Methanol
0 1 2 3 4 5 56% (51–61%), n = 3 79% (69–82%), n = 7
Methane leakage rate (%)
Coal gas and CCS Methane Example end-to-end efficiencies
Blue hydrogen (GWP20) 54% (50–57%), n = 3 76% (75–78%), n = 7
Natural gas (GWP20) Electricity → Electricity Electricity → Electricity
Blue hydrogen (GWP100) Morocco → Germany Australia → Japan
Biomass gasification Gasoline 19.3% (17.2–22.0%) 17.9% (15.5–20.3%)
Natural gas (GWP100) 46% (45–47%), n = 3 67% (62–73%), n = 6

Fig. 4 | Greenhouse gas emissions and efficiency of producing and Coloured lines represent emissions from burning natural gas directly with
transporting hydrogen. a, The global variation in cradle-to-gate emissions 100% efficiency. Points below the corresponding coloured line signify blue
from green hydrogen production, taken as the minimum of either wind or hydrogen having a lower climate impact than direct unabated burning of natural
solar with proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis in each location170, gas. Grey points and error bars indicate measured methane leakage rates (with
accounting for embodied emissions of the renewable generator, electrolyser 80% confidence interval for global and minimum and maximum for the USA)
and ancillary equipment, normalized against lifetime production. The shade for context171,187. The colour scale to the right of the panel allows comparison
around coastlines depicts hydrogen produced from offshore wind, which with part a. d, The compound efficiency of different hydrogen supply chains.
typically achieves high capacity factors and commensurately low emissions276. The main technical options (rows) are listed for each stage (columns) with
b, Emissions from transporting hydrogen as a liquid via ships (top panel) and as their component efficiency. Efficiencies are aggregated from 36 sources
compressed gas via pipelines (bottom panel) attributed to stages of the supply (Supplementary Note 7), and summarized as the median and interquartile range.
chain170. Losses account for the need to produce more hydrogen to replace that Efficiencies for transformation and transport are derived from the energy cost,
lost due to boil-off (shipping) or leakage (pipeline). Transport accounts for relative to the lower heating value energy content of hydrogen (33.32 kWh kg−1):
energy required for propulsion (shipping) or recompression (pipeline) and the for example, liquefaction requires 12.2 kWh kg−1, giving an efficiency of (33.32/
climate impact of hydrogen boil-off or leakage. c, The emissions intensity of (33.32 + 12.2)) = 73%. Coloured lines trace two representative pathways, with
producing blue hydrogen as a function of upstream methane leakage rates and inset boxes (bottom right) giving the compounded end-to-end efficiency
global warming metric, accounting for CO2 emissions not captured by carbon calculated via Monte Carlo. There is wide uncertainty over the climate impact
capture and storage (CCS), additional fuel consumed owing to the energy cost of of clean hydrogen production and transportation, and more than 80% of their
carbon capture and CH4 leakage in the supply chain. Points represent estimates energy input can be wasted in hydrogen supply chains. GWP, global warming
from five studies that use various approaches and assumptions14,15,103,243,270. potential; SMR, steam methane reforming.

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Perspective

that electrolysers run only when there is surplus renewable genera- hydrogen leakage during the recompression needed to maintain flow
tion. Both options result in low utilization (for example, curtailment rates. Emissions from transporting liquid hydrogen arise from energy
typically amounts to 5–15% of total renewable generation186), but use for liquefaction and boil-off during transit. Emissions scale with
electrolysers would ideally run constantly to maximize utilization distance transported, more rapidly for pipelines than for liquid ships170
rates and returns. (Fig. 4b). In total, distributing gaseous hydrogen 1,000 km by pipeline
Utilization can be improved if hydrogen producers instead pur- adds 1.5 kgCO2e per kgH2, or shipping liquid hydrogen 5,000 km adds
chase matching volumes of renewable electricity. The second and third 2.3 kgCO2e per kgH2 (ref. 170).
criteria require that renewable electricity is sourced locally to minimize
grid congestion (deliverability rule) and the volume purchased matches Other environmental impacts
electrolyser consumption over a given time period (temporal matching Green hydrogen is water-intensive, consuming 9 l per kgH2 based on
rule). Matching production hour-by-hour, as required in the EU182, reflects stoichiometry114,201, rising to 30–70 l per kgH2 (0.9–2.1 l kWh−1) when
the near-real-time supply–demand balance required by electricity including water treatment and process cooling3. This intensity is simi-
systems183,184, but increases costs as utilization is lower or more renew- lar to producing nuclear electricity (1.0–2.5 l kWh−1)202 but lower than
able capacity must be built to accommodate shortfalls184. Relaxing US shale gas (4.1–20.4 l kWh−1)203. Producing 100 Mt per year (current
the temporal constraint to annual matching increases system-wide global demand) via electrolysis would add <1% to global freshwater
emissions183–185, as gas-fired and coal-fired electricity powers electrolys- withdrawals155. However, the regions with lowest hydrogen production
ers when renewable output is low. Hydrogen uptake could yield positive cost, especially using solar PVs, are mainly water-stressed (up to 60%
feedbacks: building more renewables furthers their learning effects, of global potential)114,127,155. Electrolysers capable of operating with
reducing costs and incentivizing wider deployment18. saline or low-grade water could potentially improve the economic and
Three factors affect the climate impact of blue hydrogen: methane environmental case for green hydrogen by reducing energy costs (from
leakage, the global warming metric applied and CO2 capture rates15. desalination or purification) and competition for potable water24,115,204.
Methane emissions within the natural gas supply chain have come The land footprint required by renewable energy could also con-
under scrutiny as improvements in measurement cast doubt over strain green hydrogen uptake. Producing 100 Mt per year of green
national emissions inventories. Globally, 2.25% of natural gas sup- hydrogen would require ~1% of global land area, not all of which is
ply is leaked (80% CI 0.78–3.62)187, and leakage rates in the USA are available for development155. Accounting for water and land scarcity
three times the official government estimates, with more than 10-fold and the geographical distribution of projected hydrogen demand,
variation between regions171. Methane has a global warming potential <200 Mt per year could be produced locally, requiring imports from
(GWP) 30 times that of carbon dioxide over 100 years (GWP100), rising countries with greater resources155. The unequal distribution of hydro-
to 83 times over 20 years (GWP20)188. CO2 capture rates of 95–99% are gen production potential and resulting export opportunities could
possible3, but operating facilities have captured only 40–60% owing lead to issues related to hydrogen injustice205. Hydrogen production
to insufficient incentive to capture more29. CO2 reductions are also inevitably consumes local resources, so injustice could emerge around
partially offset by the energy penalty of capture, which increases both energy access in countries with high rates of energy poverty, water
fuel burnt and supply chain methane emissions. access in arid regions and displacement of local and Indigenous people
The wide range of possibilities for these inputs leads to disa- where land is scarce206,207.
greement over the emissions intensity of blue hydrogen (Fig. 4c). Fuel cells produce no emissions at the point of use. Irrespective of
With pessimistic assumptions, blue hydrogen emits only 10% less the method of hydrogen production, replacing fossil fuel combustion
than unabated grey hydrogen (9.1 kgCO2e per kgH2)15, with optimis- with electrochemical fuel cells improves local air quality and reduces
tic ones it becomes 60% lower (6.1 kgCO2e per kgH2)14. Best avail- health impacts52,156. However, combusting hydrogen (for heat or trans-
able upstream emissions combined with 99% CO2 capture rate could port) causes thermal formation of nitrogen oxides (NOx), which are
achieve 1.5 kgCO2e per kgH2 (ref. 3), sufficient to access the second harmful air pollutants and precursors to fine particulate matter and
tier of the US 45 V production tax credit of $1 per kg189 (see the section ozone157. NOx emissions may be greater from hydrogen than natural
‘Policy and investment’). To contribute less warming than burning gas, owing to higher flame temperatures and limited cost-effective
natural gas directly, methane leakage must be below 0.3–3.2% depend- abatement measures157. Blending hydrogen into natural gas networks
ing on assumptions about technology and GWP metric15. Natural-gas- also increases NOx emissions from gas boilers by an average of 30%208.
producing countries where strict regulations keep methane leakage Similarly, combusting ammonia in place of fossil fuels (for shipping or
close to zero (for example, Norway190) could be well placed to provide power plants) could increase mortalities if emissions of NOx, nitrous
low-carbon blue hydrogen. However, some argue that blue hydrogen oxide (N2O) and toxic ammonia (NH3) are unmitigated205. The air
may only be a stop gap to zero-carbon solutions14, while risking lock-in quality impacts of both hydrogen and ammonia combustion can be
to a high-carbon product110. greatly reduced with stringent emissions standards and a mandate for
Hydrogen transport and storage also increase emissions through ammonia scrubbing157,205.
leakage and the energy required for conversion and transport191–193. The electrolyte of some electrolysers and fuel cells (particularly
Hydrogen is prone to leakage owing to its low molecular weight and is PEM) is made using perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs)158,209, which are
routinely vented or purged to the atmosphere194,195. Similar to meth- associated with adverse health effects210–212. PFASs are used through-
ane, it is a strong climate forcer196–198, with GWP100 = 12 and GWP20 ≈ out the fossil fuel and clean energy supply chains209 in unknown
35–40. Estimates of leakage, venting and purging range from <1% quantities213. Similarly, the amount of PFAS contained within hydro-
to 20% across hydrogen value chains194,199,200, with higher emission gen technologies is only beginning to be understood159. Minimizing
rates for liquid hydrogen and geological storage. Critically, empirical environmental damage could require safe disposal of technologies,
measurements of leakage at real-world infrastructure and facilities are treatment of wastewater or potentially even a move away from specific
lacking194,199,200. Emissions from pipelines arise from energy use and technologies.

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Perspective

Efficiency with those from China, which costs 35–75% less3,227–229 (Supplementary
Hydrogen supply chains comprise many transformations, so they yield Note 5). The capital cost of electrolyser systems contributes 30–50%
comparatively low end-to-end efficiencies75 (Fig. 4d). Delivering less to the cost of hydrogen (Fig. 5c), which is a share similar to electricity
service per unit of primary energy increases all environmental bur- purchase230. Cost reductions for electrolysers and clean electricity
dens (alongside cost), so end-to-end efficiency is a key metric214. Bat- sources are therefore similarly important to the cost of hydrogen.
tery electric transport is 3–8 times more efficient than hydrogen and Capital costs for blue hydrogen are less widely discussed16. Current
fuel cells40. Similarly, direct electrification of end uses requires 2–14 estimates are $940 kW−1 for steam methane reforming and $1,675 kW−1
times less electricity than hydrogen-derived e-fuels75. From a climate with CCS, compared with $1,310 kW−1 for autothermal reforming with
perspective, while clean electricity supply is limited, it should be prior- CCS and $2,950 kW−1 for coal gasification with CCS according to S&P
itized for direct electrification, which is more efficient and thus yields (all values in 2023 USD). Steam methane reforming is a mature technol-
greater emissions savings than hydrogen alternatives40,75. ogy, with a 6–16% learning rate observed over 70 years231. By contrast,
However, efficiency is an incomplete benchmark as it neglects few autothermal reforming plants are in operation so their learning
the heterogenous system value of electricity215. In future with large rate is unclear, although modelling suggests lower costs and emissions
over-capacity and curtailment of renewable energy, using three units than steam methane reforming232. The future cost of CCS also remains
of electricity that would otherwise be wasted to provide one unit of uncertain23,233, but could fall 20% by 2030 with scale-up234.
electricity when and where it is required could lower system costs,
despite low efficiency20,56. Similarly, solar panels in the Sahara are Levelized costs
three times as productive as those in Scotland216. Converting Saharan The levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) quantifies the lifetime-average
solar to hydrogen, transporting it 4,000 km and reconverting to power cost of producing 1 kg of hydrogen and represents the sale price of
would deliver a similar volume of low-carbon electricity in Scotland hydrogen that achieves breakeven56. The US Hydrogen Shot programme
as installing the same panels locally, with the benefit of dispatchable has a target for 2030 clean hydrogen at $1 kg−1 (ref. 235), which equates
rather than intermittent supply87. to $30 MWh−1, $47.50 per barrel of oil equivalent, or $8.80 per MMBTU.
Chile has high potential for low-cost green hydrogen production owing
Cost to good solar resource and port access, with a 2030 target of $1.50 kg−1
The cost of clean hydrogen to end consumers is fundamental to the suc- (ref. 236). Japan’s 2030 target is ¥30 Nm−3 ($2.40 kg−1) for blue and
cess of the industry, even when hydrogen offers other strategic advan- green hydrogen153, whereas Europe has not announced target costs237.
tages. It is more expensive to produce than fossil fuels or electricity Current costs of green hydrogen are well above these benchmarks,
because it requires greater energy input19. Transport and storage costs with European projects ranging from $6 kg−1 to $13 kg−1 (Fig. 5d). Global
are higher than for fossil fuels or electricity owing to low volumetric costs in 2023 were $3.90–9.20 kg−1 for green hydrogen, with blue hydro-
energy density and the need for specialized infrastructure214. Usage gen being 35–50% cheaper at $1.90–5.90 kg−1 and grey hydrogen a fur-
costs are also higher from building new refuelling stations or delivery ther 30–50% cheaper at $1.00–4.30 kg−1 (refs. 28,238–240). Hydrogen
pipelines, in order to ensure system compatibility while maintaining is already competitive in some niche applications241, but wider uptake
reliability and efficiency214,217. requires lower costs. Both blue234 hydrogen and green hydrogen16,230
A key focus has, therefore, been on cost reduction for clean hydro- have potential for cost reductions, but also wide uncertainty over
gen; however, future costs remain uncertain and speculative. Hydro- future costs27. Green hydrogen costs could reach below $2 kg−1 in coun-
gen technologies are relatively immature but recent deployment has tries with the best renewable resources3,129, but this requires carbon-free
provided a base of real-world data to better understand costs and electricity costing under $30 MWh−1 and electrolyser capital costs to
how learning effects drive cost reductions218. The costs of renewable fall by 50–70%28,242.
electricity and natural gas are volatile and vary around the world219, Electricity and natural gas prices are the main drivers of green
strongly influencing the cost of clean hydrogen. Yet, improved geo- and blue hydrogen costs (Fig. 5e,f). LCOH rises by $1 kg−1 for every
spatial models of renewable productivity have allowed regional dif- $20 MWh−1 increase in electricity price230 or $6.60 per MMBTU increase
ferences in green hydrogen costs and optimal locations for hydrogen in gas price234,243. Gas price volatility critically affects blue hydrogen,
production to be explored3. for example, the 2021–2023 energy price shock increased the cost
of all hydrogen production routes by around $2 kg−1 (refs. 28,238).
Capital costs Other drivers for green hydrogen cost are electrolyser capital costs,
Over the 10 years to 2020, electrolyser and fuel cell prices fell by utilization rate and efficiency230. The availability of clean electricity
two-thirds56,104,105 (Fig. 5a). Estimated learning rates range from 8% to determines electrolyser utilization, with greater availability reduc-
19% for electrolysers104,105,218,220,221 and from 7% to 17% for fuel cells56,222,223 ing the relative impact of capital costs on LCOH230. Regions with more
(Supplementary Note 4). Performance has also improved, with electro- productive resources are thus favourable for low-cost hydrogen28,
lyser energy consumption falling 1–3.5% for each doubling in cumula- with wind-rich regions offering the highest capacity factors and lowest
tive capacity104,105. Learning rates are lower than those for solar PVs LCOH244. Emissions standards also influence LCOH, dictating the extent
owing to greater system complexity224 and might reduce as technolo- to which electrolysers can utilize non-renewable electricity from the
gies mature, owing to the greater influence of standard peripheral grid to increase utilization. Electrolysers can run solely on surplus
components (with lower learning rates)225,226. electricity to reduce curtailment; however, even with negative power
Constructing learning curves is confounded by uncertainty over prices, the resulting low utilization increases LCOH244.
the current capital cost of electrolysers (Fig. 5b), which have increased Low production cost does not guarantee low-cost hydrogen for
since 2021 owing to rising rates and inflation affecting material and consumers. The energy and infrastructure required for conversion,
labour costs3. Price estimates for all technologies vary widely, par- transport and storage add to hydrogen costs (Fig. 5g). Transporting
ticularly between systems produced in the USA and Europe compared hydrogen more than 250 km reportedly doubles end-user costs227,

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a b c d
100 100 20
100,000
90 90 TNO
UK Auction

Share of electrolyser capex (%)

80 80
10 BCG

Hydrogen price ($ kg−1)

70 TotalEnergies
70

Share of LCOH (%)

10,000 10,000 ArcelorMittal
Price ($ kW−1)

60

2023
60

2022
5
50 HyDeal

2023

2021
2024

2022
2024
50

2023
Price ($ kW−1)

2023

2020
2020
2022

2021
2021
40 40 UK

2024
1,000 1,000 30 30
2024
2022
2023

20 2 JP
20
10 10 US
100 100 0 0 1
1 MW 1 GW 1 TW 2020 2030 2040 2050
Individual sources Individual sources
Cumulative installed capacity

Solar PV modules (1980–2023) Alkaline, China ($275–470) Power Engineering Announced projects
PEM fuel cells (2004–2020) Alkaline, OECD ($1,200–1,855) Opex Balance of plant Analyst reports
PEM electrolysers (2005–2022) PEM, China ($755–1,230) Capex Electrolyser stack National strategies
Alkaline electrolysers (2003–2022) PEM, OECD ($1,250–2,010)
Solid oxide electrolysers (2011–2022) Solid oxide, OECD ($1,770–5,195)

e f g
Gas price ($ per MMBTU)
Hydrogen ship Hydrogen pipeline
0 2 4 6 8 10
Derivative ship Derivative pipeline
Methane ship Methane pipeline
5 $2,000 kW−1 5 Zang et al.
Wu et al. MA→DE AU→JP US→NL
Green hydrogen price ($ kg−1)

Blue hydrogen price ($ kg−1)

2.5
4 4

$1,000 kW−1 2.0

Transport cost ($ per kgH2e)

3 3 Higher capex
1.5

2 2
1.0
$0 kW−1 Lower capex
Fixed capex
1 projections 1
0.5
Individual
assumptions
0 0 0.0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 2,500 5,000 7,500 10,000
Electricity price ($ MWh−1) Gas price ($ MWh−1) Transport distance (km)

Fig. 5 | Factors affecting the cost of producing and distributing clean almost inversely with utilization, so the central line could be similarly achieved by
hydrogen. a, Experience curves for fuel cells56 and electrolysers104,105, showing how $500 kW−1 electrolysers with 25% utilization. f, LCOH of blue hydrogen case studies
cost has fallen with historical deployment, set against the experience curve for as a function of fuel price234,243. Lines represent the range of capital costs across
solar photovoltaic (PV) modules for context56. b, Estimates for electrolyser capital different production methods243, or capital costs falling with increased production
cost from 42 sources (Supplementary Note 8) split by technology and region of volume234. g, Estimates of the cost of transporting hydrogen, its derivatives
manufacture. Points in each group are aggregated by year. The legend gives the (ammonia and methanol) and natural gas as a function of distance19,269. There is
interquartile range of prices for each group across all years. c, The breakdown wide uncertainty over new and retrofit hydrogen pipeline costs as these are highly
of levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) across 18 projects230 and the breakdown of context-specific, and only single estimates are available for other carriers. The
electrolyser system costs across five projects226. d, The evolution of LCOH in three distances of example LNG trade routes are marked on the top axis via two-letter
national roadmaps and six analysts’ projections, set against announced costs for ISO codes: Tangier (Morocco) to Hamburg (Germany), Darwin (Australia) to
six actual projects (Supplementary Note 8). National roadmaps are indicated by Tokyo ( Japan), Sabine Pass, TX (USA) to Rotterdam (The Netherlands). All values
two-letter ISO codes. e, LCOH of green hydrogen projects as a function of fuel are given in 2023 USD. Hydrogen technology costs are falling with deployment,
price230. Lines show the influence of electrolyser system capital costs with 50% but levelized costs are influenced by many factors and are above projections and
annual utilization and other parameters averaged across all projects. LCOH scales targets. PEM, proton exchange membrane.

but wide uncertainty persists while bulk hydrogen transport remains imports114. Fuel cells remain expensive because they have not reached
nascent. Shipping liquid hydrogen reportedly costs 4–6 times more high production volumes owing to limited demand57,223. The safety
than LNG, making the US$1 kg−1 benchmark unattainable for seaborne issues surrounding hydrogen245 and challenges with lifetime and

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maintenance costs57,246,247 means that usage is more expensive than to establish national and international supply chains3,256 (Fig. 6a,b).
that for electric alternatives. Hydrogen delivered to US end-use sec- Subsidies are central among all strategies, alongside targets for produc-
tors costs $7–15 per kgH2 (ref. 214), giving carbon abatement costs tion and usage across sectors. The benefits cited across most strategies
of $500–1,250 per tCO2 (ref. 214), comparable to estimated costs for include job creation, internal revenue, industrial progress, attracting
direct air capture ($600–1,200 per tCO2)248. If production costs fall to foreign direct investment and economic diversification. The strategies
$2 kg−1, carbon abatement costs remain above $500 per tCO2, except of four regions (the USA, the EU, Japan and China) account for >80% of
for ammonia production ($210 per tCO2), refining ($340 per tCO2) and planned 2030 hydrogen supply257.
steelmaking ($470 per tCO2)214. These more competitive applications The US National Clean Hydrogen Strategy108 targets 10 Mt per
fall within the range of direct air capture costs estimated for 2050 year production by 2030 (28 kg per capita) and 50 Mt per year by 2050
($100–600 per tCO2)248. (133 kg per cap), reducing costs to $1 per kg. It focuses on strategic,
high-impact uses: industry, long-haul transport and grid services;
Financial support allocating $8 billion to creating ‘hydrogen hubs’. The EU Hydrogen
In many applications, hydrogen competes with direct electrification Strategy237 and RePowerEU programme258 prioritize green hydrogen,
(Fig. 2a), which benefits directly from falling renewables costs249,250. targeting 10 Mt per year domestic production by 2030 (22 kg per cap),
Hydrogen’s entire value chain has to decrease costs to enable while importing a further 10 Mt per year. This would require at least
cost-effective decarbonization beyond select applications with expen- 40 GW of electrolysers and ~550 TWh per year of electricity; however,
sive alternatives (such as aviation and long-duration storage). There is by 2030, EU quotas for hydrogen might only yield 2–4 Mt per year of
limited scope for blue hydrogen to become cheaper, beyond de-risking demand259.
hydrogen projects to lower financing costs, as neither steam meth- Japan’s Clean Hydrogen Strategy153 aims to supply 3 Mt per year
ane reforming nor CCS is expected to have large potential for cost by 2030 (25 kg per cap) and 20 Mt per year by 2050 (193 kg per cap),
reductions231,251. Falling gas prices reduce not only blue hydrogen costs with ¥900 billion ($6 billion) annual public and private investment
but also the cost of gas-based alternatives, thus carbon pricing is neces- to 2040. Its 2030 targets include 2 million residential fuel cells and
sary to compete with unabated fossil fuels234. There is scope for electro- 800,000 fuel cell vehicles153 (up from 500,000 and 7,500 in 2024)50,260.
lyser costs to fall through materials and performance improvements24, This ambition has scaled back from 2002 targets261 of 5 million fuel cell
standardizing systems226 and hybridizing wind and solar production vehicles by 2020. China’s Hydrogen Industry Development Plan262 tar-
in areas with the best resources114. gets 0.1–0.2 Mt per year of renewable hydrogen by 2025 (0.1 kg per cap),
Subsidies are essential to making clean hydrogen cost-competitive and individual provinces have more ambitious goals263. China’s initial
in the near term16. The US Inflation Reduction Act introduced produc- focus is on hydrogen in mobility (50,000 fuel cell vehicles by 2025) and
tion tax credits for clean hydrogen, from $0.60 kg−1 for hydrogen with energy storage, while demonstrations in heavy industry commence264.
life-cycle emissions below 4 kgCO2e per kgH2 to $3.00 kg−1 for emissions Key differences emerge between countries around hydrogen
below 0.45 kgCO2e per kgH2 (ref. 252), or up to $85 per tCO2 stored trade. Numerous countries aim to export hydrogen, notably fossil fuel
for blue hydrogen234. This credit could reduce the cost of hydrogen producers (such as the United Arab Emirates, Australia and Russia), yet
from alkaline electrolysis to below $1 kg−1 to the consumer, catalys- only 12 countries in Asia and Europe plan to import (Fig. 6a). The USA
ing demand for hydrogen239. The European Commission launched prioritizes the domestic market, aiming for self-sufficiency, whereas
subsidies for green (but not blue) hydrogen253, with the first auction hydrogen imports are central to Japanese96 and European strategies,
in 2023 awarding €720 million ($780 million) to seven projects to with the Netherlands and Italy expecting to become hydrogen trading
produce 0.16 MtH2 per year for 10 years, amounting to €0.37–0.48 hubs. Around 15 Mt of low-carbon hydrogen could be traded interna-
per kgH2 ($0.40–0.52 per kgH2). European nations are also establish- tionally by 2030, summing all announced projects3. With a mismatch
ing individual support, with Germany allocating €350 million ($380 between economical hydrogen production and demand centres127,
million) to support constructing 90 MW of electrolysers254. Japanese global hydrogen trade seems likely, but will require careful coordination
legislation subsidizes projects via contracts for differences, guarantee- and long-term certainty for both producers and consumers128.
ing producers and importers a guaranteed ‘strike price’ backed by ¥3 Hydrogen and related technologies have become increasingly
trillion ($20 billion) in funding255. integrated into mainstream energy modelling frameworks265,266, raising
Subsidies are available at all stages of the hydrogen supply chain, their prominence in decarbonization pathways and climate policies
with thousands of trials underway across the USA, UK and Germany. (Fig. 6b). Hydrogen has experienced several hype cycles7,267, peaking
Delivering all the green hydrogen projects announced as of 2024 would in the late-1990s after the Kyoto Protocol, the early-2000s following a
require an estimated $0.8–2.6 trillion of subsidies121. Subsidy stacking focus on US energy security and post-2015 following the Paris Agree-
allows a project to leverage multiple subsidies at once: collecting sepa- ment (Fig. 6c). These cycles crashed after failure to meet expectations.
rate subsidies for producing, distributing and using clean hydrogen to Various projects launched since 2020 have been cancelled, including
offset high costs across its value chain. Renewables and electric vehi- hydrogen heating trials12, green hydrogen production, hydrogen trains,
cles previously benefited from subsidy stacking to catalyse scale-up. aeroplanes, power plants, ammonia production and vehicle refuelling
However, the limited financial support available for hydrogen should stations. Reliance on subsidies also leaves hydrogen projects exposed
be targeted towards its most competitive pathways, and more gener- to changes in political support.
ally, financial support should not be preferentially directed towards Historically, policies and investments have targeted some of the
hydrogen over alternatives. least competitive areas (heat and personal transportation)29, in part due
to hydrogen’s paradoxical business model: profits are in transportation
Policy and investment whereas volumes are in industry87. By 2023, hydrogen usage policies
Since 2017, 65 countries (accounting for >80% of global CO2 emissions) were shifting towards more competitive applications28. Investment
have published national hydrogen strategies, signalling commitments in clean hydrogen had risen to nearly $50 billion in 2023, almost all for

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Perspective

a b
2017
JP

KR
2018
FR

2019
AU NZ

NL DE NO
2020
PT ES CL FI IT CA

UA RU UZ HU PY SK BR CZ
2021
GB AR CO LT LU MA ZA SE DK PL
HR CN UY AT
2022
MR BE SG NA CR TR IN

EE PA PE BG RO US EC IE BT IL AE
2023
Trade balance Sources of hydrogen DZ KE LK MY ID
Exporter Only renewables Renewables and others
VN KZ IS EG LT TN EU
Importer Renewables and Renewables, fossil 2024
Not stated fossil CCS CCS and others

c
Kyoto Protocol Paris Agreement
to reduce GHG mandates under
emissions 2 °C of warming

First
power-to-gas BMW plan to
GM plant launch first FCEV
Electrovan US launch
is the first BMW begin Commercial $1.2 billion Shell opens Saudi Arabia invest Shell closes
fuel cell fuel cell FCEV FreedomCAR H refuelling $5 billion in green H2 refuelling
2
vehicle research prototypes project stations ammonia plant stations

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

‘Hydrogen Mercedes Toyota and Honda GM discontinue Hydrogen US$2.2 billion National targets:
economy’ begin fuel first commercial FCEV Council support for • 60 Mt clean
proposed cell research FCEVs formed clean hydrogen hydrogen
• 190 GW
Japan launch Shell’s Quest Honda >1 GW global electrolysers
ENEFARM CHP H2 CCS plant discontinue electrolyser • 1.2 million FCEVs
demonstration opens FCEV capactiy

Fig. 6 | Current government policies towards hydrogen and key events over of selected events in the hydrogen energy sector, based on publicly available
six decades. a, Territories with national hydrogen strategies, with shaded information (Supplementary Note 9). The hydrogen industry has gone
colour indicating which sources are supported277 and border colour indicating through hype cycles with future prospects and targets varying strongly
whether countries plan to be hydrogen exporters or importers128. b, The date of between continents. CCS, carbon capture and storage; FCEV, fuel cell electric
countries producing their first national hydrogen strategies3,256. c, A timeline vehicle; GHG, greenhouse gas.

production4, but by 2024 this had halved to $24 billion4. For the hydro- policies and subsidies must target the most competitive applications132.
gen transition to gain momentum, supply, demand and infrastructure Governments, companies and investors should compare any hydrogen
must all scale simultaneously to avoid creating stranded assets — the proposal with its alternatives. To qualify for support, projects should
so-called three-sided chicken-and-egg problem268. require a high burden of proof regarding costs and benefits to soci-
There are three key things for policymakers to avoid: subsidizing ety, taking a systemic view that considers safety and environmental
hydrogen production with limited emissions savings, underinvestment implications.
in hydrogen’s most competitive use cases and support for hydrogen
where more competitive alternatives already exist and the prospects Summary and future perspectives
for hydrogen to overtake them seem remote (for example, light vehicles An important limitation of this Perspective is the difficulty in making
or home heating)41,132. National hydrogen strategies focus overwhelm- definitive comparisons between hydrogen and its alternatives across
ingly on production, but as production volumes grow, demand side applications. We reviewed hydrogen technologies at vastly different

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Perspective

Glossary

Additionality Deliverability Hydrogen derivatives Leakage

The principle that renewable electricity The principle that renewable electricity Chemicals such as ammonia, methanol The unintentional release of hydrogen,
used for hydrogen production must is sourced from within the same or synthetic methane, produced from methane or other gases during
come from newly added capacity, geographic region as hydrogen hydrogen and used as fuels or industrial production, transport or storage, with
so it is not diverted from existing uses production to minimize grid congestion feedstocks. implications for climate impacts.
of energy. and ensure that it can power the
electrolysis. Hydrogen direct reduction Learning rates
Blending hydrogen of iron The percentage reduction in capital
The process of mixing hydrogen with E-fuels A steelmaking process using hydrogen cost for technologies with each
natural gas in pipelines to reduce CO2 Synthetic fuels produced by combining in place of coal to reduce iron ore, doubling of cumulative production;
emissions from burning the blended gas. hydrogen with captured carbon dioxide, producing water instead of CO2, which learning is the accumulation of
which can directly replace fossil fuels in could substantially lower emissions experience in manufacturing.
Boil-off existing engines and infrastructure. when combined with electric arc
The evaporation of liquid hydrogen furnaces. Levelized cost of hydrogen
during storage or transport owing to its Embodied emissions The average cost of producing
cryogenic temperature requirements. Greenhouse gas emissions from Hydrogen economy hydrogen over a project’s lifetime,
the production of materials and A vision of a global energy system incorporating all capital, operating
Clean hydrogen infrastructure, such as electrolysers in which hydrogen serves as a major and energy costs, which reflects the
Hydrogen produced with substantially and pipelines. energy carrier, supported by large-scale minimum viable sale price to achieve
lower greenhouse gas emissions than production, distribution and end-use breakeven.
traditional methods. Embrittlement applications.
The weakening and cracking of Perfluoroalkyl substances
Consequential emissions metals caused by hydrogen exposure, Hydrogen hubs (PFASs). A broad class of chemicals
Indirect greenhouse gas emissions posing challenges for pipelines and Regional centres that integrate used in many consumer and industrial
arising from hydrogen production, storage tanks. hydrogen production, storage and products, which do not naturally
such as increased fossil fuel use for usage infrastructure, facilitating degrade and raise health concerns as
electricity to balance intermittent Geological storage economies of scale. they bioaccumulate.
renewables or diverting clean The storage of hydrogen in
electricity from other sectors. underground formations such as Hype cycles Temporal matching
salt caverns or porous rocks, offering A model describing the adoption of The alignment of renewable electricity
Critical minerals large-scale, long-duration energy emerging technologies, characterized supply with hydrogen production
Rare and essential materials such as storage options. by inflated expectations during early over time, to minimize reliance on grid
platinum, iridium and nickel used in growth, disillusionment when these are electricity, which could be produced
hydrogen technologies, with supply not met and finally realistic adoption from high-carbon sources.
constraints and environmental and integration into the market.
extraction impacts influencing the
scalability of the industry.

stages of development and for diverse applications, not all of which make transport and storage infrastructure both technically challenging
have competing low-carbon alternatives. Such comparisons are com- and costly26,83,143. Various safe and efficient hydrogen storage media
plicated by limited data availability, uncertainty, issues around scope have been developed152 with geological storage emerging as a promis-
and where to draw system boundaries. Higher costs could be balanced ing option for long-duration energy storage; however, research has not
by other advantages, which vary over time, between regions and have yet delivered low-cost large-scale hydrogen transport19,269. Repurpos-
different importance to individual stakeholders. Although we have ing natural gas pipelines can lower transport costs140, but substantial
positioned hydrogen applications with respect to current alternatives, technical, economic and safety challenges must still be overcome146.
a rich research seam remains to be explored in quantitatively mapping Present costs and technical characteristics are largely theoretical26,
the solutions space for economic and environmental impacts of the and fundamental chemistry or materials breakthroughs alongside
diverse options. long-term commitment to mass roll-out of hydrogen networks will
Available evidence suggests that support for clean hydrogen be needed26.
should be prioritized in unavoidable applications, such as petroleum Technological improvements that radically reduce the energy
refining and fertilizer production (2% of global CO2 emissions)3, and requirements of hydrogen production are constrained by thermody-
other competitive applications including steelmaking89,91, long-haul namics24,270, although newer solid oxide electrolyser cells offer higher
heavy transport38,57 and long-duration energy storage20,56. For clean efficiencies if waste heat is available107. The climate impacts of hydro-
hydrogen production and uptake on a larger scale, cost3,239 and emis- gen production, including supply chain emissions from equipment
sions intensity15,170,184 must fall. Hydrogen has physical properties that manufacture and leakage, must be better characterized to identify

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Perspective

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