Updated May 30, 2025

Tornadoes: Forecasting, Detection, and Communication

Tornadoes are narrow, violently rotating columns of air, Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi), and (3) the
connecting the base of a thunderstorm to the ground. They Northern Plains and upper Midwest (e.g., North and South
affect communities across the United States every year and Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota). Although tornadoes
can cause fatalities and injuries, destroy property and crops, can form at any time, they occur mostly during spring and
and disrupt businesses. A May 2025 weather system summer and usually in the late afternoon or early evening.
produced over 90 reported tornadoes (Figure 1), high
winds, and large hail and caused multiple deaths and Classification
injuries across the Midwest and Southeast. The National Experts estimate the strength or wind speed of a tornado by
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is the examining the damage it caused rather than by measuring
primary civilian federal agency with authority to issue actual wind speeds during an event. Damage is estimated
severe weather forecasts and warnings. Congress may using the enhanced Fujita-scale or EF-scale (Table 1).
debate whether to direct the agency to take additional Table 1. Enhanced Fujita-Scale
actions related to tornado forecasting, detection, and
communication in light of recent and potential future EF Number 3-Second Gust (mph)
storms. EF-0 65-85
Exactly how and why tornadoes form is not completely EF-1 86-110
understood. Tornado formation is believed to be dictated EF-2 111-135
mainly by conditions in and around thunderstorms with EF-3 136-165
well-defined circulation. Tornadoes have been reported on EF-4 166-200
all continents except Antarctica. They are common in North
EF-5 Over 200
America, particularly in the United States, which reports
approximately 1,200 tornadoes per year dating back to the Source: NOAA, Storm Prediction Center (SPC), “Enhanced F Scale
for Tornado Damage.”
1950s. Tornadoes occur across the United States but form
Notes: EF = enhanced Fujita. The EF-scale is a set of 3-second wind
frequently in three regions: (1) the Southern Plains (e.g., gust estimates at the point of damage, not a real-time observed
Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas), (2) the Gulf Coast (e.g., measurement.
Figure 1. U.S. Tornadoes Daily Count and Running Annual Trend (as of May 21, 2025)

Source: NOAA, Storm Prediction Center (SPC), “Daily Counts and Annual Running Trend,” May 21, 2025.
Notes: The red color denotes the 2025 U.S. daily numbers (bars) and “trend” or total number of preliminary tornadoes (line). The gray color
denotes the 2005-2015 average daily numbers (bars) and annual trend (line). Preliminary tornadoes are tornadoes observed or reported from a
variety of sources. SPC and local weather forecast offices analyze preliminary tornado reports to produce a final number (NOAA, National
Centers for Environmental Information, “Index-Tornado Count”).

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The EF-scale uses eight levels of damage (e.g., beginning a region of dry air sinking on the back side of, and wrapping around, a
of visible damage to complete destruction) to various storm (NOAA, NWS, “Field Guide Glossary”).
structures and trees. EF-0 to EF-2 tornadoes are most WFOs issue tornado warnings when a tornado has been
frequently reported in the U.S. sighted or indicated by weather radar. Warnings contain
language about areas at risk, time frames, specific hazards,
Forecasting, Detection, and and recommended safety precautions for those at risk.
Communication
The Secretary of Commerce, acting through NOAA’s Communication
Administrator, is required to forecast weather and issue NOAA communicates tornado warnings to the public
storm warnings (15 U.S.C. §313), including tornado through outdoor sirens, local and cable television and radio
forecasts and warnings. NOAA’s National Weather Service stations, cell phone applications, Wireless Emergency
(NWS) provides these weather, water, and climate forecasts Alerts, NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards (NWR), and the
and warnings for the United States and its territories, federal Emergency Alert System and Integrated Public
adjacent waters, and ocean areas. Several other NOAA Alert and Warning System.
programs, including the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric
Research’s National Severe Storms Laboratory, focus on Congressional Considerations
tornado research to improve observations, modeling, and Congress may continue to consider whether to maintain or
instruments, among other activities. otherwise change NOAA’s role in forecasting, detection,
and communication of tornadoes in certain ways. For
Forecasting and Detection example, one bill in the 119th Congress (S. 258) would
The NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) and local weather evaluate the EF-scale; require a plan for use of “warn-on-
forecast offices (WFOs) each have roles in tornado forecasts” (an experimental project that relies on modeling
forecasting and detection. SPC forecasters use weather and forecasts, rather than observations, to issue tornado
observations and numerical weather prediction and warnings); amend NOAA’s VORTEX-USA tornado
ensemble models (i.e., running several models at one time) program to “rapidly” improve tornado forecasts and
to determine if atmospheric conditions may lead to the warnings, and support additional physical and social
formation of severe weather. SPC issues three-day forecasts science research. Some Members in previous Congresses
(convective outlooks) on a daily basis and analyses of the have also introduced legislation and advocated for funding
next six hours (mesoscale discussions) for severe weather for other activities related to tornadoes, including next-
potential. SPC issues a tornado watch if conditions generation radar and weather forecasting.
favorable for either multiple tornadoes or a single intense
tornado continue to develop; the watch typically lasts six to Congress may consider whether—and, if so, how—NOAA
eight hours. SPC disseminates tornado watches to the should study outstanding scientific questions. These include
public, emergency managers, storm spotters, broadcast whether the number of tornadoes in the United States has
media, and local WFOs and aims to issue watches at least increased over time, whether the timing and seasonality of
two hours before the first tornado. tornadoes has changed, and whether climate change has
impacted, or may impact, tornado frequency or intensity
WFO forecasters and storm spotters look for certain storm overall or in certain circumstances. For example, it is not
features, such as the forward or rear flank downdraft clear whether tornadoes are occurring more frequently or
(Figure 2), and particular patterns in Doppler radar images, whether they are being reported more often as a function of
such as the tornadic vortex signature (a region of intense better detection, greater media coverage and verification
concentrated rotation) to identify tornadoes. efforts, a growing population, and the advent of cell phone
cameras.
Figure 2. Selected Components of Certain
Thunderstorms In addition, Congress may debate whether to conduct
oversight of, reverse, amend, codify in statute, or take no
action on changes the Trump Administration has made or
proposed to federal agency staffing and funding across
NOAA. For example, some news sources have reported that
several NWS local WFOs no longer have 24-hour
meteorologist coverage. The changes have been a part of
efforts to decrease government spending; the effects of
these changes on the agency are still unclear. Some current
and former meteorologists and NWS directors have warned
that such changes may impact NOAA’s ability to forecast,
detect, and communicate about impending tornadoes.

Source: NOAA, NWS, “The Supercell Pt. 2.” Eva Lipiec, Specialist in Natural Resource Policy
Notes: A forward flank downdraft is the leading part of a supercell
storm, with most of the heavy precipitation. A rear flank downdraft is IF12695

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