water

Article
Long-Term Trends and Seasonality Detection of the
Observed Flow in Yangtze River Using Mann-Kendall
and Sen’s Innovative Trend Method
Rawshan Ali 1,2, * , Alban Kuriqi 3 , Shadan Abubaker 4 and Ozgur Kisi 5
1 College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University,
Yichang 443002, China
2 Department of Petroleum, Koya Technical Institute, Erbil Polytechnic University, Erbil 44001, Kurdistan, Iraq
3 CERIS, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal
4 Department of Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Knowledge University,
Erbil 44001, Kurdistan, Iraq
5 School of Technology, IIia State University, 0162 Tbilisi, Georgia
* Correspondence: rawshan@[Link]; Tel.: +86-155-4927-4896




Received: 28 July 2019; Accepted: 2 September 2019; Published: 5 September 2019


Abstract: Trend analysis of streamflow provides practical information for better management of water
resources on the eve of climate change. Thus, the objective of this study is to evaluate the presence of
possible trends in the annual, seasonal, maximum, and minimum flow of Yangtze River at Cuntan
and Zhutuo stations in China for the period 1980 to 2015. The assessment was carried out using the
Mann–Kendall trend test, and the innovative trend analysis, while Sen’s slope is used to estimate the
magnitude of the changes. The results of the study revealed that there were increasing and decreasing
trends at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations in different months. The mean annual flow was found to
decrease at a rate of −26.76 m3 /s and −17.37 m3 /s at both stations. The minimum flow was found to
significantly increase at a rate of 30.57 m3 /s and 16.37 m3 /s, at a 95% level of confidence. Maximum
annual flows showed an increasing trend in both regions of the Yangtze River. On the seasonal scale,
the results showed that stations are more sensitive to seasonal flow variability suggesting a probable
flooding aggravation. The winter season showed an increasing flow trend, while summer showed a
decreasing trend. The spring flow was found to have an increasing trend by the Mann–Kendall test at
both stations, but in the Zhutuo Station, a decreasing trend was found by way of the innovative trend
analysis method. However, the autumn flow indicated a decreasing trend over the region by the
Mann–Kendall (MK) test at both stations while it had an increasing trend in Cuntan by the innovative
trend analysis method. The result showed nonstationary increasing and decreasing flow trends over
the region. Innovative trend analysis method has the advantage of detecting the sub-trends in the
flow time series because of its ability to present the results in graphical format. The results of the
study indicate that decreasing trends may create water scarcity if proper adaptation measures are
not taken.

Keywords: climate variability; river discharge; Sen’s innovative trend method; trend analysis;
Yangtze River

1. Introduction
Recently, the sharp increase in greenhouse gases emissions has resulted in a rise in temperature
over many regions around the world [1–3]. The increasing temperature has induced various
hydro-climatological hazards with lots of socio-economic consequences [4–6]. It has been observed
that increasing temperature has altered the patterns of precipitation, which is one of the essential

Water 2019, 11, 1855; doi:10.3390/w11091855 [Link]/journal/water

Water 2019, 11, 1855 2 of 17

components of the global hydrologic cycle [7–10]. The changing trends have direct impacts on the
river flow, and river flows are also found to be very sensitive with minor changes in the precipitation
patterns [11–13]. The construction of hydraulic structures, notably dams and large weirs, can also be a
significant cause of the streamflow reduction [3,14,15]. Thus, it is imperative and necessary to evaluate
the trends in the river flow for sustainable development in water resources and in the same time
maintaining adequate environmental flows releases downstream of the hydraulic structures [16,17].
Several authors reported that the trend assessment of streamflow is an essential analysis to make
long-term water management plans, particularly with regards to water supply and hydropower
production from water systems [18,19]. Streamflow data are regularly recorded and utilized for the
planning and management of water resources [12,18–20]. In this regard, a review of the literature
revealed that several studies are conducted to understand the changing characteristics of flow using
river flow data around the world, including China [21–23].
China, located in Asia, is considered to be a hotspot for climate change [24–26]. Cao, Yan, Zhao,
Zhu, Yu, Tang and Jones [25] reported that surface temperature over many stations of China’s mainland
has increased by 0.26 ◦ C ± 0.04 ◦ C/decade from 1951 to 2017. Additionally, Wang and Chen [27]
reported that the temperature of China would grow at a rate of 0.8 to 3.3 ◦ C per three decades under
RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Consequently, it can, that changing patterns of temperature will change
the patterns of precipitation, which in turns impact the water resources of China. Therefore, it is crucial
to evaluate the trends in the major rivers of the country. The Yangtze River of China is the longest
river which is monitored by several stream gauges over the country [28]. The river is known to be the
backbone for water resources and enhancing the economy of the country [29,30]. The river is found to
experience the negative impacts of climate in the form of flash floods and droughts as well [29,31,32].
It is also observed that the effect of the river varies over distance and time [10]. In this study, the trends
in the flow of the river at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations are assessed. Both stations are selected because
of their location and availability of data over a longer period (≥30 years).
Several approaches are available in the literature for the assessment of the trends. However,
the Sen slope estimator [33] and the Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test [34] are most widely used for
hydrological trend analysis [35–37]. These non-parametric methods have several advantages such
as the handling of missing data, the requirement of few assumptions, and independence of the data
distribution [38–40]. However, the major drawback of the method is the influence of autocorrelation
in data on its test significance. Several modifications in the MK test have been proposed to remove
the influence of autocorrelation through pre-whitening of data [41–44]. However, recent studies have
suggested that those are not sufficient enough to exclude the effect of long-term dependency on the
data series on MK trend significance [45,46]. Besides, change in land use, and some earth-atmospheric
phenomena often cause a localized change in climate and streamflow, which does not continue for a
long [47,48]. Therefore, the trends estimated by the MK test may not always be the unidirectional trend.
Innovative trend analysis (ITA) proposed by Şen [33] is a non-parametric method which does not
depends on data distribution, autocorrelation and length of data series. [34]. The ITA method allows
robust estimation of the trend by ignoring the seasonal cycle and the length of time series. Besides, it
allows examination of any hidden sub-trends present in the series. Thus, the ITA method can be used
for estimation of a monotonic trend present in the time series which persist with time. The method has
been widely applied in different studies around the world in recent years. Tabari, et al. [35] applied ITA
along with the Mann–Kendall (MK) test to detect the trends in streamflow over eight stations in the
north-west of Iran. Demir and Kisi [36] used ITA with MK to understand the direction of trends in the
annual rainfall over several stations located in six provinces of Turkey. Dabanlı et al. [37] applied ITM
and MK to assess the direction of trends in several variables such as relative humidity, temperature,
rainfall, and runoff variables in Ergene Basin, Turkey. Öztopal and Şen [38] applied the ITA method for
examining the rainfall trend at seven stations in Turkey. In another study, Tosunoglu and Kisi [34]
assessed the trends in annual maximum duration and maximum yearly severity in Coruh River Basin,
Turkey using ITA and MK test. Wu and Qian [39] evaluated the direction of trends using ITA, MK
Water 2019, 11, 1855 3 of 17

and linear regression using annual and seasonal rainfall rain gauges data of 14 stations located in
Shaanxi Province, China. The review of the literature revealed that even ITA had been used in different
studies; its application over China is still at infancy. Furthermore, the literature review revealed that
no study had been published on analyzing the streamflow trend in the Yangtze River (Cuntan and
Zhutuo stations) by the ITA method [34,40–42]. The trend estimated in the flow of Yangtze River
using the MK test in the previous studies may be due to the variability (autocorrelations and cycles) in
time series which may not persist for the long-run. Assessment of the unidirectional trend in river
flow due to the changes in the environment is significant for long-term development and planning
of water resources. The unidirectional trend in the streamflow of the Yangtze River estimated in this
study using the ITA method by removing the influence of autocorrelations and cycles in the series
can provide better understanding of the effect of environmental changes on Yangtze River flow and
reliable management of the river basin.
The main objective of this study is to detect the trends in the long-term flow (monthly, annual,
maximum, and minimum flows) of Yangtze River at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations using the innovative
trend method. The obtained results using innovative trend method is compared with that obtained
using the Mann–Kendall trend test. The paper is organized as follows: Section 2 shows information
about the case study and datasets; Section 3 presents the applied methodology; Section 4 presents the
main results, discussion, and interpretation of main results. Finally, the main concluding remarks
achieved in this study are presented in Section 5.

2. Case Study and Datasets

China is blessed with an abundant number of rivers flowing from north to south, including
the Yangtze River, among others. The Yangtze River is one of the longest rivers around the world,
which collects water from several catchments [43]. The flow is monitored through several gauges
along the river [44]. The Yangtze River covers one-fifth of the entire country with a region of about
1.8 million km2 . The mean annual precipitation over the basin varies from 300 to 500 mm in the
western, 1600 to 1900 mm in the south-eastern sides. On the other hand, the mean annual temperature
varies from 19 to 15 ◦ C, individually [45]. The Yangtze River basin supplies about half of the wild
animal and plant species and 40% of freshwater resources of the country [46].
Yangtze River has several monitoring stations, in this study, the trends in the streamflow recorded
at Cuntan (Long. 106.60, Lat. 29.62) and Zhutuo (Long. 105.849, Lat. 29.01533) stations are considered.
Both stations are considered due to their prime location and availability of data over a longer period.
The locations of the stations are shown in Figure 1. The daily streamflow data for both stations were
collected from the hydrological data center of the Ministry of Water Resources in China from 1980 to
2015, considering enough for trend analysis [44].
The seasonal distributions of monthly flow recorded at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations are presented
in Figure 2.
Both stations have quite similar flow patterns. However, the flow over Cuntan station is higher
than Zhutuo station. It can be observed that the highest flow occurred during July where the flow is
recorded about 13,300 m3 /s and 10,000 m3 /s at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations respectively. On the other
hand, the lowest flow occurs in February where the flow was recorded about 3350 m3 /s and 2800 m3 /s
at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations respectively. The figure shows that flow is low in December, January,
February, and March while relatively starts increasing from April to July. After reaching its peak in
July, it decreases. The highest increase in flow during July is due to high precipitation over the region
during that season.
Water 2019, 11, 1855 4 of 17
Water 2019,
Water 2019, 11,
11, xx FOR
FOR PEER
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REVIEW 44 of
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Figure1.
Figure
Figure Locationof
[Link]
Location ofofCuntan
Cuntanand
Cuntan andZhutuo
and Zhutuohydrological
Zhutuo hydrologicalstations
hydrological stationsin
stations ininthe
theYangtze
the YangtzeRiver
Yangtze RiverBasin.
River Basin.
Basin.

30000
Cuntan Zhutuo
25000

20000
/s)
(m33/s)

15000
Q (m
Q

10000

5000

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Figure2.
Figure
Figure Seasonaldistribution
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Seasonal distributionof
distribution ofofstreamflow
streamflowat
streamflow atatCuntan
Cuntanand
Cuntan andZhutuo.
and Zhutuo.
Zhutuo.

3. Methodology
3. Methodology
The streamflow data at Cuntan and Zhutuo were collected from the hydrological data center
The streamflow data at Cuntan and Zhutuo were collected from the hydrological data center of
of the Ministry of Water Resources in China. The quality of the data was visually and statistically
the Ministry of Water Resources in China. The quality of the data was visually and statistically
assessed. The distribution of streamflow data was assessed using gamma, generalized extreme value,
assessed. The distribution of streamflow data was assessed using gamma, generalized extreme
and normal probability distribution functions (PDFs). The Sen’s slope test was then applied to estimate
value, and normal probability distribution functions (PDFs). The Sen’s slope test was then applied to
the change in streamflow in each month at both the stations. MK and ITM were applied to confirm
estimate the change in streamflow in each month at both the stations. MK and ITM were applied to
the significance of the changes. Finally, the results obtained using the MK and ITM methods were
confirm the significance of the changes. Finally, the results obtained using the MK and ITM methods
compared. Details of the methods used are given in following sub-sections.
were compared. Details of the methods used are given in following sub-sections.
Water 2019, 11, 1855 5 of 17

3.1. Distributional Analysis

The streamflow data were fitted with PDFs to understand the nature of the data. Several frequency
distributions are available in the literature, and they are widely used to assess data behavior. In this
study, gamma, generalized extreme value, and normal distributions were used to fit the river flow data,
that are frequently applied in hydro-climatic studies are applied to the datasets of Zhutuo and Cuntan
stations. The gamma and generalized extreme value are commonly used for skewed data while normal
distribution is used in many cases; monthly data series generally follows a normal distribution [47].
Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test is used for goodness of fit, which is a powerful test as compared to
other tests to evaluate the goodness of fit Anderson–Darling and Chi-square test [47]. Thus, the test
was applied on a single month, mean flow, annual maximum flow, and minimum yearly flow at a
95% level of confidence. The null hypothesis (H0 ) of the KS test is that the data follows the specified
distribution, while the alternate hypothesis (H1 ) is that data is not following the specified distribution.

3.2. Estimation of Magnitude of Change

The Sen’s slope method [48] was used for the estimation of the change in annual and monthly
streamflow for the period 1980–2015. The Sen’s slope (β) is calculated as the median of all the slopes
estimated between all the successive data points of a river flow time series (x) as:

∆y
" #
β = median (1)
∆t

where, ∆y is the change in river flow due to the change in time, ∆t between two subsequent streamflow
data. The Sen’s slope is a non-parametric method which has been found highly reliable for estimation
of change over time [49–52].

3.3. Mann–Kendall Trend Test

There are several trend assessments approaches available in the literature. However,
the Mann–Kendall test is the most widely used test for assessing the trends in hydro-climatic
studies [18,52–56]. The Mann–Kendall test [57] which is recommended by the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) often used as because it has several advantages: It does consider the data
distribution, and it can cope with the outliers [58–61]. Mann–Kendall test statistics (S) for river flow
can be calculated using Equation (4). In Equation (2), n represent the sample size, whereas xi and xk are
sequential data in series.
n−1 X
X n
S= · sign (xi − xk ) (2)
i=1 j=i+1

where, xi and xk are sequential data in the series and

when (xi − xk ) > 0





+1
sign (xi − xk ) =  0 when (xi − xk ) = 0 (3)


when (xi − xk ) < 0

 −1

The variance of S is estimated as,

Pq   
s(n − 1)(2n + 5) − P−1
tp tp − 1 2t p + 5
ar(S) = (4)
18
Water 2019, 11, 1855 6 of 17

whereas tp defines the ties of the pth value, and q represents the number of the tied value.
The standardized test static for the Mann–Kendall test (Z) can be calculated, as shown in Equation (5):

√ S−1 when S > 0



Var (S)




Z= 0 when S = 0 (5)


S+1
when S < 0



 √
Var (S)

The sign of Z indicates the direction of the trend. The negative value of Z indicates a decreasing
trend and vice versa. At the 5% significance level, the null hypothesis of no trend is rejected if
the absolute value of Z is higher than 1.64. The significance of the change in monthly and annual
streamflow was estimated using the MK test.

3.4. Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) Method

The concept of ITA was initially proposed by Şen [62] for the detection of trends in time series.
In this method, data are equally divided into two segments between first dates to the last date. Both
segments are arranged in ascending order and presented in the X and Y-axis. The first segment (Xi: i =
1, 2, . . . , n/2) is presented in the horizontal axis while the second segment (Xj: j = n/2 + 1, n/2 + 2, . . . ,
n) is presented in vertical axis in the Cartesian coordinate system. A bisector line at 1:1 (45◦ ) divides
the diagram into two equal triangles (Figure 3). The upper triangle represents an increasing trend,
while a lower one indicates a decreasing trend. For the estimation of the trend, the SITA statistic is
computed as follows [49]:  
2 Xi − X j
SITA = (6)
n
where SITA is the slope base on the ITA method, n is the sample size, Xi and X j are the mean value of
the first
Water and
2019, 11, xsecond half
FOR PEER of the series, respectively.
REVIEW 7 of 17

12000

11500 No trend region

Second half of the time series, Xj

11000
Increasing trend zone
10500
1:1 (45o) straight line
10000

9500 Data points

9000

8500

8000
Decreasing trend zone
7500
7500 8500 9500 10500 11500
First half of the time series, Xi
[Link]
Figure Theinnovative
innovative trend
trend analysis
analysis (ITA) method shows increasing
increasing and
and decreasing
decreasingtrend
trendzones.
zones.

4. Results and Discussions

4.1. Distributional Analysis

Gamma, generalized extreme value and normal distribution were applied to investigate the
fitting of the data. The methods were applied on monthly, mean annual, annual maximum and
annual minimum flow. Fitness of data was evaluated using the data of both stations at a 95% level
Water 2019, 11, 1855 7 of 17

The null hypothesis (H0 ) of no significant trend cannot be rejected if the calculated slope value, s,
remains below a critical value, ssci . While the alternative hypothesis (Ha ) of the presence of a significant
trend in time series is applicable if s > ssci . The probability density function (PDF) of the null hypothesis
is required to derive from calculating the test significance. If the confidence limits of a standard normal
PDF with zero mean and the standard deviation σs is ssci at a significance level of α, the confidence
limits (CL) of the trend slope is:
CL(1−α) = 0 ± ssci σs (7)

where σs is the slope standard deviation.

The details of the test can be found in Şen [33]. In this study, the significance of the change in
monthly and annual streamflow was estimated using ITA. In the present study, the ITA method was
applied at 10% significance levels considering the rarity of significant change in streamflow.

4. Results and Discussions

4.1. Distributional Analysis

Gamma, generalized extreme value and normal distribution were applied to investigate the
fitting of the data. The methods were applied on monthly, mean annual, annual maximum and
annual minimum flow. Fitness of data was evaluated using the data of both stations at a 95% level of
confidence. The results are presented in Table 1. Considering 36 years (1980–2015) of streamflow data,
the null hypothesis was rejected when the KS test statistics was more than 0.232. Bold figures in the
table represent the rejected hypothesis at the 95% level of confidence, while values in italics indicate
the best fit. As can be seen in Table 1, the null hypothesis was accepted for most of the months in all
tests. In the Cuntan station, all data were found to follow the gamma and generalized extreme value
distributions, while the null hypothesis was rejected in November for the generalized extreme value
distribution. On the other hand, for Zhutuo Station, all data were found to follow the generalized
extreme value distribution. Overall, the generalized extreme value was found to have the best fit for
both stations data.

Table 1. Kolmogorov–Smirnov test statistics obtained during the fitting distribution of streamflow data
on Cuntan and Zhutuo stations.

Cuntan Zhutuo
Month/Season
Gamma Gen. Extreme Value Normal Gamma Gen. Extreme Value Normal
January 0.135 0.089 0.157 0.091 0.065 0.106
February 0.128 0.107 0.149 0.101 0.083 0.108
March 0.123 0.088 0.144 0.117 0.085 0.137
April 0.114 0.072 0.148 0.114 0.060 0.143
May 0.100 0.077 0.129 0.070 0.063 0.084
June 0.122 0.098 0.138 0.095 0.087 0.096
July 0.075 0.078 0.079 0.103 0.076 0.126
August 0.127 0.127 0.159 0.151 0.132 0.125
September 0.191 0.124 0.159 0.192 0.108 0.160
October 0.093 0.097 0.109 0.093 0.078 0.120
November 0.077 0.541 0.099 0.112 0.069 0.133
December 0.140 0.112 0.141 0.082 0.061 0.076
Mean annual 0.068 0.077 0.075 0.092 0.093 0.089
Annual
0.088 0.085 0.089 0.125 0.123 0.121
Maximum flow
Annual
0.068 0.077 0.075 0.154 0.119 0.166
Minimum flow
Spring 0.126 0.075 0.152 0.105 0.086 0.124
Summer 0.108 0.108 0.105 0.129 0.119 0.113
Autumn 0.144 0.083 0.120 0.136 0.091 0.111
Winter 0.184 0.096 0.200 0.078 0.063 0.088
Water 2019, 11, 1855 8 of 17

Both parametric and non-parametric methods are used for the assessment of trends. Parametric
methods are more reliable compared to the non-parametric method. However, parametric methods are
applicable only when the data is normally distributed. Distribution analysis of streamflow data at both
stations revealed that none of them is normally distributed, which means parametric methods cannot
be used for assessment of trends. Therefore, non-parametric methods (MK and ITA) were used for the
assessment of trends in the present study.

4.2. Mann–Kendall Trends Analysis

The Sen’s slope and Mann Kendall trend test were individually applied at Cuntan and Zhutuo
stations. The tests were applied at each month, annual mean, annual maximum, annual minimum, and
seasonal flows for the period 1980 to 2015 at 90%, 95% and 99% confidence levels. The obtained results
are presented in Table 2. Results show that there are positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing)
trends in both stations. The highest negative trend can be seen in October while the highest positive
trend can be seen in January at both stations.

Table 2. Trends in annual, maximum, minimum, and seasonal river flow obtained using Sen’s slope
and Mann–Kendall (MK) trend test at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations. The negative values of MK test
statistics indicate decreasing while the positive values indicate an increasing trend in streamflow.

Cuntan Zhutuo
Time Series MK Significance Sen’s Slope MK Signific. Sen’s Slope
January 4.81 *** 36.15 4.30 *** 20.14
February 3.50 *** 27.51 3.17 *** 16.87
March 3.61 *** 42.67 3.09 *** 24.47
April 1.87 * 32.03 1.32 18.10
May −0.29 −11.31 −1.13 −17.83
June −1.19 −48.48 −1.51 −54.48
July −1.02 −113.48 −1.73 * −112.65
August −1.21 −112.07 −0.48 −25.77
September −1.16 −98.08 −0.91 −52.83
October −1.81 * −71.12 −1.84 * −87.04
November −0.67 −16.12 −1.02 −11.35
December 0.99 8.61 0.91 5.43
Maximum −0.64 −82.39 −1.24 −50.88
Minimum 4.13 *** 30.57 3.23 *** 16.37
Annual −1.19 −26.76 −1.40 −17.36
Spring 1.46 21.74 1.19 9.54
Summer −1.21 −65.90 −1.35 −56.53
Autumn −1.68 * −61.03 −1.81 * −55.78
Winter 3.99 *** 23.49 3.75 *** 13.65
***, ** and * represents significance at 90%, 95% and 99% confidence levels corresponding to critical z values of 1.65,
1.96 and 2.58, respectively.

The trends in annual mean at both stations revealed that flow is decreasing. However,
the non-significant decrease is found relatively higher in Zhutuo compared to Cuntan. As the
annual mean, maximum flow also shows a non-significantly decreasing trend. On the other side, mean
minimum flow indicates significantly increasing trend (at a 0.99 confidence level) at a rate of 30.57 m3 /s
at Cuntan and a rate of 16.37 m3 /s at Zhutuo stations. Spring season has an increasing trend, but it is
not significant, while the autumn season has a significantly decreasing trend at the 90% confidence
level. The autumn is decreased in both stations at a 99% level of confidence. Both stations show a
significant increase in minimum and winter flow at a 99% level of confidence.
The trends in maximum flow assessed at the Cuntan and Zhutuo stations are shown in Figure 4.
The trends were assessed based on the maximum flow recorded for each year. The figure shows
that flow has a decreasing trend in both stations. The trend estimated using Sen’s slope shows a
 November −0.67 −16.12 −1.02 −11.35
December 0.99 8.61 0.91 5.43
Maximum −0.64 −82.39 −1.24 −50.88
Minimum 4.13 *** 30.57 3.23 *** 16.37
Annual −1.19 −26.76 −1.40 −17.36
Water 2019, 11, 1855 9 of 17
Spring 1.46 21.74 1.19 9.54
Summer −1.21 −65.90 −1.35 −56.53
Autumn
negative change of −82.385 m /s/year *for the Cuntan,
−1.68 3 −61.03
while the−1.81 *
Mann–Kendall trend−55.78
test did not show
significanceWinter
trend at the 3.99
90%, 95% or*** 23.49
99% confidence 3.75 Station
levels. Zhutuo *** also shows
13.65a decreasing
trend***, ** and
with * represents
a rate of −50.882 m3 /s while
significance at 90%,
the95% and 99% confidence
Mann–Kendall levels
did not corresponding
detect to critical
any significant trendz for
values of 1.65, 1.96 and 2.58, respectively.
this station.

45000
Cuntan Q=-82.385
a)
40000

35000

30000
Q (m3/s)

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
35000 Zhutuo Q=-50.882
b)
30000

25000

20000
Q (m3/s)

15000

10000

5000

0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Year

Figure 4. Trends in the maximum annual river flow at

at (a)
(a) Cuntan
Cuntan and
and (b)
(b) Zhutuo
Zhutuo stations.
stations.

The trends in the minimum flow in both stations were also assessed. The assessment was
performed based on the minimum values recorded each year. The obtained results are displayed
in Figure 5. The figure clearly shows that there is an increase in flow in both stations. However,
the increase is relatively higher for Cuntan Station. The Sen’s slope estimated a positive change of
30.571 m3 /s. Similar to the Cuntan Station, the Zhutuo Station also showed a positive change of
16.368 m3 /s. The change in the Zhutuo station was found to be significant at the 90% confidence level.
According to the Mann–Kendal test, a significantly increasing trend was detected at the 99% confidence
level for both stations. It is also important to note that the minimum flow was higher in the Cuntan
compared to that of the Zhutuo Station. This could be due to the location of the Cuntan downstream.

4.3. Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) Method

ITA, MK and Sen’s slope were applied to annual and seasonal scale (i.e., summer, autumn, winter,
and spring), flow series for Cuntan and Zhutuo stations (Table 3). The results showed that there are
some discrepancies with regards to ITA, MK and Sen’s slope. For example, in annual series, ITA
showed a positive trend at Cuntan station while MK and Sen’s slope showed a negative trend, but in
Zhutuo all the methods showed a negative trend. Similarly, in summer, ITA showed a positive and no
trend for the Zhutuo and Cuntan while MK and Sen’s slope showed a negative trend in both stations.
However, spring, autumn and winter have a similar type of trend in both stations. It can also be
observed that there are significant differences in the values of all methods. For example, in winter, ITA
has a value of 0.99 while MK showed 3.99 and Sen’s slope gave 23.5 at Cuntan Station.
Water 2019, 11, 1855 10 of 17
Water 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 10 of 17

4500
Cuntan Q=30.571***
4000
a)
3500
3000
Q (m3/s)

2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
3500 Zhutuo Q=16.368**
b)
3000

2500
Q (m3/s)

2000

1500

1000

500

0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Year
Figure 5.
Figure 5. Trends
Trends inin the
the minimum
minimum annual
annual river
river flow
flow at
at (a)
(a) Cuntan
Cuntan and
and (b)
(b) Zhutuo
Zhutuo stations.
stations. Following
Following
symbols: ***,
symbols: ***, **
** and
and ** represents
represents significance
significance at
at 90%,
90%, 95%
95% andand 99%
99% confidence
confidence levels.
levels.

4.3. Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) Method

Table 3. ITA, MK and Sen’s slope results for the annual and seasonal flow series of Cuntan and
ITA, MK
Zhutuo and Sen’s slope were applied to annual and seasonal scale (i.e., summer, autumn,
stations.
winter, and spring), flow series for Cuntan and Zhutuo stations (Table 3). The results showed that
there are some discrepancies with regards to ITA, MK andStation Sen’s slope. For example, in annual
Season Method
series, ITA showed a positive trend at Cuntan station while MK and Zhutuo
Cuntan Sen’s slope showed a negative
trend, but in Zhutuo all the methods showed
ITA a negative 0.05trend. Similarly,
−0.01in summer, ITA showed a
β −26.8 −17.4
positive and no trend for the Zhutuo and Cuntan while MK and Sen’s slope showed a negative
Annual
trend in both stations. However, spring, MKautumn and −1.19
winter have a −1.40
similar type of trend in both
ITA are significant
stations. It can also be observed that there 0.28 differences in0.17the values of all methods.
Spring β 21.74 9.55
For example, in winter, ITA has a value of 0.99 while MK showed 3.99 and Sen’s slope gave 23.5 at
MK 1.46 1.19
Cuntan Station.
ITA using the ITA
The results of the annual flow analysis 0 method are presented
0.02 in Figure 6.
Summer β −65.9 −56.5
To conduct ITA, time-series data are equally divided into two segments, 1980–1997 and
MK −1.21 −1.35
1998–2015. The trends are inconsistent (both increasing and decreasing trends) across both stations.
ITA −0.15 −0.39
At both stations, the flow data fall within the 10% range from the 1:1 line; in both stations, the
Autumn β −61.03 −55.78
increasing trend is seen for the high flows.
MK Seasonal flow
−1.68trends of the−1.81
ITA method for both stations
are shown in Figure 7.
ITA 0.99 1.00
We can see that there is increasing βand decreasing
Winter 23.5 trends and some
13.66 flow data are trendless,
most of the data are between the range of MK10% level of3.99
significance except
3.75the winter season. In both
stations, winter clearly shows increasing trends. Summer and spring seasons of Zhutuo Station
have increasing trends for the high flows, while the corresponding values of autumn show a
The results of the annual flow analysis using the ITA method are presented in Figure 6.
decreasing trend. Low flows of both stations indicate a decreasing trend in both stations.
The ITA results of two stations given in Figures 6 and 7 are summarized and compared with
MK and Sen’s slope in Table 3. It is clear from the table that the ITA, MK and Sen’s slope give
Water 2019, 11, 1855 11 of 17
Water 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 17

9500 12000
Zhutuo Annual Cuntan Annual

9000 11500

8500 11000

8000 10500
Q (m3/s) (1998-2015)

Q (m3/s) (1998-2015)
7500 10000

7000 9500

6500 9000

6000 8500

5500 8000

5000 7500
5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 7500 8500 9500 10500 11500
Q (m3/s) (1980-1997) Q (m3/s) (1980-1997)

[Link]
Figure Resultsofofannual
annual flow
flow trends
trends at Cuntan
at Cuntan andand Zhutuo
Zhutuo stations
stations in Yangtze
in Yangtze River River Basin
Basin by by
using
using the ITA
the ITA method. method.

To conduct ITA, time-series data are equally divided into two segments, 1980–1997 and 1998–2015.
The trends are inconsistent (both increasing and decreasing trends) across both stations. At both
stations, the flow data fall within the 10% range from the 1:1 line; in both stations, the increasing trend
is seen for the high flows. Seasonal flow trends of the ITA method for both stations are shown in
Figure 7.
We can see that there is increasing and decreasing trends and some flow data are trendless, most
of the data are between the range of 10% level of significance except the winter season. In both stations,
winter clearly shows increasing trends. Summer and spring seasons of Zhutuo Station have increasing
trends for the high flows, while the corresponding values of autumn show a decreasing trend. Low
flows of both stations indicate a decreasing trend in both stations.
The ITA results of two stations given in Figures 6 and 7 are summarized and compared with MK
and Sen’s slope in Table 3. It is clear from the table that the ITA, MK and Sen’s slope give similar trend
results for the content in spring, autumn, summer, and winter but different in annual flows. Similarly,
in Zhutuo Station summer is different, but annual, spring autumn and winter are the same. However,
ITA gives some positive or negative trends for both stations, although the MK and Sen’s slope tests
indicate no trend for these stations.
Water 2019, 11, 1855 12 of 17
Water 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 13 of 17

30000
Cuntan, Summer 24000 Zhutuo, Summer
28000

26000 22000
)

24000 20000

22000 18000
)(

20000
16000
18000
(

14000
16000

14000 12000

12000 10000
12000 15500 19000 22500 26000 29500 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 24000
15000
18300 Cuntan, Autumn Zhutuo, Autumn
14000
13000
16300
12000
14300 11000
10000
12300
9000
8000
Q (m3/s) (1998-2015)

10300
7000
8300 6000
8300 10300 12300 14300 16300 18300 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
7000 4100
Cuntan, Winter Zhutuo, Winter
6500 3900

6000 3700

5500 3500

5000 3300

4500 3100

4000 2900

3500 2700

3000 2500
3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 2500 2800 3100 3400 3700 4000
9500
Cuntan, Spring 5500 Zhutuo, Spring
8500
5000

7500
4500

6500
4000

5500 3500

4500 3000

3500 2500
3500 4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500
Q (m3/s) (1980-1997) Q (m3/s) (1980-1997)

Figure 7.
Figure 7. ITA analysis method
ITA analysis method for
for Cuntan
Cuntan and
and Zhutuo
Zhutuo stations
stations in
in seasonal
seasonal flow
flow trends.
trends.

The above analysis uncovered that there were significant decreasing and increasing trends
5. Conclusions
in annual and seasonal flow data during 1980–2015 at two investigation stations located in the
This study assessed the presence of trends in the monthly and annual flows of Yangtze River
Yangtze River Basin. Then, there were significant decreasing (increasing) trends in seasonal (spring,
China at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations. Trends were detected for the period from 1980 to 2015 using
summer, autumn, winter). In the previous years, throughout the world, various examinations have
innovative trend analysis (ITA) method, Mann–Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope estimator tests. The
been led to trend analysis of meteorological data utilizing parametric and non-parametric methods,
results of the study showed that both stations have significant increasing and decreasing flow at
for example [63–68]. The spatial variability of trend is very important for impact assessments and
95% and 99% confidence levels. The highest considerable decrease at a rate of 99% was observed in
adaptation of planning for floods, droughts, and extreme events [1,68] in the study region. In this
October both stations while the highest increase was observed in January. Significant increasing
trends were detected at both stations in the winter and spring flows; annual flows were increased
and decreased at both stations. While the autumn flow was decreased, the summer flow was
Water 2019, 11, 1855 13 of 17

study, a sum of eight series of annual and seasonal flows was analyzed by using MK and ITA methods
at 10% significance level. The result of the comparison of MK and ITA methods are summarized in
Table 3. It was seen from the table that the significant (positive and negative) trends were detected
by the MK and ITA. Moreover, all significant trends (at a 10% level) can be detected by MK and ITA.
The results of the comparison also revealed that the ITA method was superior to the MK method.
In the ITA method, the data can be illustrated graphically on the Cartesian coordinate system; therefore,
the visual inspection can be accounted for further interpretations [62]. Furthermore, the ITA method
has the following advantages, such as (i) it does not depend on any distribution assumption, serial
correlation, and seasonal cycle and (ii) it is simple to understand and calculate [1,67,68]. This new
method can provide useful information and a priori view of the authorities and designers and can be
used in climate change scenarios.
Results presented in the present study is based on observed data at two locations of Yangtze River
for the period 1980–2015. Streamflow at different points along a river is highly correlated to each other.
The similarity in results obtained at two stations also suggests similar trends in annual and seasonal
streamflow at different locations of Yangtze River. Therefore, the results presented in this study can be
considered as the trends for the Yangtze River. However, future research can be conducted with the
availability of data from other locations to verify the findings of the present study. Besides, different
modified versions of MK tests [41–44] can be used to assess trends in streamflow, and the obtained
results can be compared with the finding of the present study.

5. Conclusions
This study assessed the presence of trends in the monthly and annual flows of Yangtze River China
at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations. Trends were detected for the period from 1980 to 2015 using innovative
trend analysis (ITA) method, Mann–Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope estimator tests. The results of
the study showed that both stations have significant increasing and decreasing flow at 95% and 99%
confidence levels. The highest considerable decrease at a rate of 99% was observed in October both
stations while the highest increase was observed in January. Significant increasing trends were detected
at both stations in the winter and spring flows; annual flows were increased and decreased at both
stations. While the autumn flow was decreased, the summer flow was increased and decreased.
The decrease inflows indicate that authorities should take stern action to adapt against climate change.
The findings of this study provide an insight into future development projects; for instance, it can
present valuable information and a priori view to support the engineers and practitioners to implement
the structures to be constructed to cope with the floods and droughts when looking at prevailing
climatic events. The finding of the study can be beneficial in planning and management of water
resources at Yangtze River.

Author Contributions: Conceptualization, R.A., A.K.; data curation, R.A., S.A.; formal analysis, R.A., S.A.,
A.K.; supervision, O.K.; writing–original draft, R.A.; writing–review and editing, R.A., A.K., O.K. All authors
collaborated in carrying out this research.
Funding: The authors wish to sincerely thank the China Scholarship Council, China Three Gorges University
for funding this study. Alban Kuriqi received a PhD grant by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P.
(FCT), Portugal, under the PhD Programme FLUVIO–River Restoration and Management, grant number:
PD/BD/114558/2016.
Acknowledgments: The authors wish to sincerely thank China Scholarship Council, China Three Gorges
University, the hydrological data center of the Ministry of Water Resources in China for providing data in this
study, and the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.
Water 2019, 11, 1855 14 of 17

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