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CONTENTS

Prologue

On the Plumage of Birds

What You Do Not Know
Experts and “Empty Suits”
Learning to Learn
A New Kind of Ingratitude
Life Is Very Unusual
Plato and the Nerd
Too Dull to Write About
The Bottom Line
Chapters Map

PART ONE: UMBERTO ECO’S ANTILIBRARY, OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION

Chapter 1: The Apprenticeship of an Empirical Skeptic

Anatomy of a Black Swan

On Walking Walks
“Paradise” Evaporated
The Starred Night
History and the Triplet of Opacity
Nobody Knows What’s Going On
History Does Not Crawl, It Jumps
Dear Diary: On History Running Backward
Education in a Taxicab
Clusters
Where Is the Show?

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8¾ Lbs Later
The Four-Letter Word of Independence
Limousine Philosopher

Chapter 2: Yevgenia’s Black Swan

Chapter 3: The Speculator and the Prostitute

The Best (Worst) Advice

Beware the Scalable
The Advent of Scalability
Scalability and Globalization
Travels Inside Mediocristan
The Strange Country of Extremistan
Extremistan and Knowledge
Wild and Mild
The Tyranny of the Accident

Chapter 4: One Thousand and One Days, or How Not to Be a Sucker

How to Learn from the Turkey

Trained to Be Dull
A Black Swan Is Relative to Knowledge
A Brief History of the Black Swan Problem
Sextus the (Alas) Empirical
Algazel
The Skeptic, Friend of Religion
I Don’t Want to Be a Turkey
They Want to Live in Mediocristan

Chapter 5: Confirmation Shmonfirmation!

Zoogles Are Not All Boogles
Evidence
Negative Empiricism

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Counting to Three
Saw Another Red Mini!
Not Everything
Back to Mediocristan

Chapter 6: The Narrative Fallacy

On the Causes of My Rejection of Causes

Splitting Brains
A Little More Dopamine
Andrey Nikolayevich’s Rule
A Better Way to Die
Remembrance of Things Not Quite Past
The Madman’s Narrative
Narrative and Therapy
To Be Wrong with Infinite Precision
Dispassionate Science
The Sensational and the Black Swan
Black Swan Blindness
The Pull of the Sensational
The Shortcuts
Beware the Brain
How to Avert the Narrative Fallacy

Chapter 7: Living in the Antechamber of Hope

Peer Cruelty
Where the Relevant Is the Sensational
Nonlinearities
Process over Results
Human Nature, Happiness, and Lumpy Rewards
The Antechamber of Hope

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Inebriated by Hope
The Sweet Trap of Anticipation
When You Need the Bastiani Fortress
El desierto de los tártaros
Bleed or Blowup

Chapter 8: Giacomo Casanova’s Unfailing Luck: The Problem of

Silent Evidence

The Story of the Drowned Worshippers

The Cemetery of Letters
How to Become a Millionaire in Ten Steps
A Health Club for Rats
Vicious Bias
More Hidden Applications
The Evolution of the Swimmer’s Body
What You See and What You Don’t See
Doctors
The Teflon-style Protection of Giacomo Casanova
“I Am a Risk Taker”
I Am a Black Swan: The Anthropic Bias
The Cosmetic Because

Chapter 9: The Ludic Fallacy, or The Uncertainty of the Nerd

Fat Tony
Non-Brooklyn John
Lunch at Lake Como
The Uncertainty of the Nerd
Gambling with the Wrong Dice
Wrapping Up Part One
The Cosmetic Rises to the Surface
Distance from Primates

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PART TWO: WE JUST CAN’T PREDICT

From Yogi Berra to Henri Poincaré

Chapter 10: The Scandal of Prediction

On the Vagueness of Catherine’s Lover Count

Black Swan Blindness Redux
Guessing and Predicting
Information Is Bad for Knowledge
The Expert Problem, or the Tragedy of the Empty Suit
What Moves and What Does Not Move
How to Have the Last Laugh
Events Are Outlandish
Herding Like Cattle
I Was “Almost” Right
Reality? What For?
“Other Than That,” It Was Okay
The Beauty of Technology: Excel Spreadsheets
The Character of Prediction Errors
Don’t Cross a River if It Is (on Average) Four Feet Deep
Get Another Job
At JFK

Chapter 11: How to Look for Bird Poop

How to Look for Bird Poop

Inadvertent Discoveries
A Solution Waiting for a Problem
Keep Searching
How to Predict Your Predictions!
The Nth Billiard Ball

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Third Republic–Style Decorum

The Three Body Problem
They Still Ignore Hayek
How Not to Be a Nerd
Academic Libertarianism
Prediction and Free Will
The Grueness of Emerald
That Great Anticipation Machine

Chapter 12: Epistemocracy, a Dream

Monsieur de Montaigne, Epistemocrat
Epistemocracy
The Past’s Past, and the Past’s Future
Prediction, Misprediction, and Happiness
Helenus and the Reverse Prophecies
The Melting Ice Cube
Once Again, Incomplete Information
What They Call Knowledge

Chapter 13: Appelles the Painter, or What Do You Do if You Cannot

Predict?

Advice Is Cheap, Very Cheap

Being a Fool in the Right Places
Be Prepared
The Idea of Positive Accident
Volatility and Risk of Black Swan
Barbell Strategy
“Nobody Knows Anything”
The Great Asymmetry

PART THREE: THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN

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Chapter 14: From Mediocristan to Extremistan, and Back

The World Is Unfair
The Matthew Effect
Lingua Franca
Ideas and Contagions
Nobody Is Safe in Extremistan
A Brooklyn Frenchman
The Long Tail
Naïve Globalization
Reversals Away from Extremistan

Chapter 15: The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud

The Gaussian and the Mandelbrotian

The Increase in the Decrease
The Mandelbrotian
What to Remember
Inequality
Extremistan and the 80/20 Rule
Grass and Trees
How Coffee Drinking Can Be Safe
Love of Certainties
How to Cause Catastrophes
Quételet’s Average Monster
Golden Mediocrity
God’s Error
Poincaré to the Rescue
Eliminating Unfair Influence
“The Greeks Would Have Deified It”
“Yes/No” Only Please

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A (Literary) Thought Experiment on Where the Bell Curve Comes From

Those Comforting Assumptions
“The Ubiquity of the Gaussian”

Chapter 16: The Aesthetics of Randomness

The Poet of Randomness

The Platonicity of Triangles
The Geometry of Nature
Fractality
A Visual Approach to Extremistan/Mediocristan
Pearls to Swine
The Logic of Fractal Randomness (with a Warning)
The Problem of the Upper Bound
Beware the Precision
The Water Puddle Revisited
From Representation to Reality
Once Again, Beware the Forecasters
Once Again, a Happy Solution
Where Is the Gray Swan?

Chapter 17: Locke’s Madmen, or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places

Only Fifty Years
The Clerks’ Betrayal
Anyone Can Become President
More Horror
Confirmation
It Was Just a Black Swan
How to “Prove” Things

Chapter 18: The Uncertainty of the Phony

Ludic Fallacy Redux

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Find the Phony

Can Philosophers Be Dangerous to Society?
The Problem of Practice
How Many Wittgensteins Can Dance on the Head of a Pin?
Where Is Popper When You Need Him?
The Bishop and the Analyst
Easier Than You Think: The Problem of Decision Under Skepticism

PART FOUR: THE END

Chapter 19: Half and Half, or How to Get Even with the Black Swan

When Missing a Train Is Painless

The End

EPILOGUE: YEVGENIA’S WHITE SWANS

GLOSSARY

POSTSCRIPT ESSAY: ON ROBUSTNESS AND FRAGILITY, DEEPER

PHILOSOPHICAL AND EMPIRICAL REFLECTIONS

I—Learning from Mother Nature, the Oldest and the Wisest

On Slow but Long Walks
My Mistakes
Robustness and Fragility
Redundancy as Insurance
Big is Ugly—and Fragile
Climate Change and “Too Big” Polluters
Species Density
The Other Types of Redundancy
Distinctions Without a Difference, Differences Without a Distinction

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A Society Robust to Error

II—Why I Do All This Walking, or How Systems Become Fragile

Another Few Barbells
Beware Manufactured Stability

III—Margaritas Ante Porcos

Main Errors in Understanding the Message
How to Expunge One’s Crimes
A Desert Crossing

IV—Asperger and the Ontological Black Swan

Asperger Probability
Future Blindness Redux
Probability has to be Subjective
Probability on a Thermometer

V—(Perhaps) the Most Useful Problem in the History of Modern

Philosophy
Living in Two Dimensions
The Dependence on Theory for Rare Events
Epimenides the Cretan
An Undecidability Theorem
It’s the Consequences …
From Reality to Representation
Proof in the Flesh
Fallacy of the Single Event Probability
Psychology of Perception of Deviations
The Problem of Induction and Causation in the Complex Domain
Induction
Driving the School Bus Blindfolded

VI—The Fourth Quadrant, the Solution to that Most Useful of

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Problems
David Freedman, RIP
Decisions
The Fourth Quadrant, a Map

VII—What to Do with the Fourth Quadrant

Not Using the Wrong Map: The Notion of Iatrogenics
Negative Advice
Iatrogenics and The Nihilism Label
Phronetic Rules: What is Wise to do (or not do) in Real Life to Mitigate
the Fourth Quadrant if you can’t Barbell?

VIII—The Ten Principles for a Black-Swan-Robust Society

IX—Amor Fati: How to Become Indestructible

Nihil Perditi

NOTES

BIBLIOGRAPHY

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS FOR THE FIRST EDITION

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NOTE TO THE SECOND EDITION

In order to preserve the integrity of the original text, I have limited the
updating of the current edition to a small number of footnotes. I added a
long Postscript essay, going deeper into philosophical and empirical
discussions of the subject and addressing some misunderstandings of the
concept of the Black Swan that cropped up after the initial publication of the
book.

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PROLOGUE

ON THE PLUMAGE OF BIRDS

Before the discovery of Australia, people in the Old World were convinced
that all swans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely
confirmed by empirical evidence. The sighting of the first black swan might
have been an interesting surprise for a few ornithologists (and others
extremely concerned with the coloring of birds), but that is not where the
significance of the story lies. It illustrates a severe limitation to our learning
from observations or experience and the fragility of our knowledge. One
single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from
millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. All you need
*
is one single (and, I am told, quite ugly) black bird.
I push one step beyond this philosophical-logical question into an
†
empirical reality, and one that has obsessed me since childhood. What we
call here a Black Swan (and capitalize it) is an event with the following three
attributes.
First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations,
because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility.
Second, it carries an extreme impact (unlike the bird). Third, in spite of its
outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its
occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.
I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective
*
(though not prospective) predictability. A small number of Black Swans
explain almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and
religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own
personal lives. Ever since we left the Pleistocene, some ten millennia ago,
the effect of these Black Swans has been increasing. It started accelerating
during the industrial revolution, as the world started getting more
complicated, while ordinary events, the ones we study and discuss and try
to predict from reading the newspapers, have become increasingly
inconsequential.
Just imagine how little your understanding of the world on the eve of the
events of 1914 would have helped you guess what was to happen next.
(Don’t cheat by using the explanations drilled into your cranium by your dull
high school teacher.) How about the rise of Hitler and the subsequent war?
How about the precipitous demise of the Soviet bloc? How about the

Page 17
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