Inferential Statistics

Inferential Statistics
 Inferential statistics enables one to make descriptions of data and
draw inferences and conclusions from the respective data.

 Inferential statistics is mainly used to derive estimates about a large

group (or population) and draw conclusions on the data based on
hypotheses testing methods.

 Inferential statistics makes use of sample data because it is more

cost-effective and less tedious than collecting data from an entire
population.
Hypothesis Testing
 Hypothesis testing makes use of inferential statistics and is used to
analyze relationships between variables and make population
comparisons through the use of sample data.

 Hypothesis testing falls under the “statistical tests” category. Statistical

tests account for sampling errors and can either be parametric or non-
parametric.

 Hypothesis testing is a decision-making process for evaluating claims

about a population.
Steps in Hypothesis Testing
1. State the null and alternative hypotheses.

2. Select the level of significance.

3. Determine the critical value and the rejection region/s.

4. State the decision rule.

5. Compute the test statistic.

6. Make a decision, whether to reject or not to reject the null hypothesis.

 State the Null and Alternative
Hypotheses.

 A statistical hypothesis is an inference about a population parameter.

This inference may or may not be true.

 The null hypothesis, symbolized as Ho , states that there is no difference

between a parameter and a specific value.

 The alternative hypothesis, symbolized as Ha or H1 , states a specific

difference between a parameter and a specific value.
 Three Possible Sets of Statistical Hypotheses:

1. Ho : parameter = specific value This is a two-tailed test.

Ha : parameter ≠ specific value

2. Ho : parameter = specific value This is a left-tailed test.

Ha : parameter < specific value

3. Ho : parameter = specific value This is a right-tailed test.

Ha : parameter > specific value
 Reject Ho Do not Reject Ho
Ho is true Type I Error Correct decision
Ho is false Correct decision Type II Error

 A type I error occurs if one rejects the null hypothesis when it is true.

 A type II error occurs if one does not reject the null hypothesis when it is
false.

 The decision is made on the basis of probabilities. If there is a large

difference between the value of the parameter obtained from the sample
and the hypothesized parameter, the null hypothesis is probably not true.
 Select the Level of Significance

 The level of significance is the maximum probability of committing a

type I error.

 This probability is symbolized by α. That is, P(type I error) = α.

 The probability of type II error is symbolized by β. That is, P(type II error) =

β.

 Statisticians agree on using three arbitrary significance levels: the 0.10,

0.05, and 0.01.
 If the null hypothesis is rejected, the probability of a type I error
will be 10%, 5%, and 1%, and the probability of a correct decision
will be 90%, 95%, and 99%, depending on which level of
significance is used.

 When α = 0.05, there is a 5% chance rejecting a true null

hypothesis.

 In hypothesis-testing situation, the researcher decides what level

of significance to use.
 Determine the Critical Value and the
Rejecting Region/s
 A critical value is selected from a table for the appropriate test.

 The critical value determines the critical and the noncritical regions.

 The critical region or the rejection region is the range of values of the test
value that indicates that there is a significant difference and that the null
hypothesis should be rejected.

 The noncritical or nonrejection region is the range of values of the test

value that indicates that the difference was probably due to the chance
and that the null hypothesis should be rejected.
 State the Decision

 A test with two rejection regions is called a two-tailed test. In this test,
the null hypothesis should be rejected when the test value is in either of
the two critical regions.

 A one-tailed test indicates that the null hypothesis should be rejected

when the test values is in the critical region on one side of the
parameter.

 A one-tailed test is either right-tailed when the inequality in the

alternative hypothesis is greater than (>) or left-tailed when the
inequality is less than (<).
 If the test is two-tailed, the critical value will be either positive or negative.

 If the test is left-tailed, the critical value will be negative.

 If the test is right-tailed the critical value will be positive.

 Compute the Test Statistic

 The researcher must perform the required test to compute the

test statistic.

 There are two tests that can be used for means: the z-test and
the t-test, the chi-square test for the standard deviation.
 Make a Decision, whether to Reject or
not to Reject the Null Hypothesis

 Based on the test results, the researcher will reach a

conclusion about the population under study.
 Stating Null and Alternative Hypotheses
Examples:

1. The average age of bus drivers in Metro Manila is 38.8 years.

Ho : μ = 38.8 years
Ha : μ ≠ 38.8 years

2. The average number of calories of a low-calorie meal is at most 300.

Ho : μ = 300 calories
Ha : μ < 300 calories
3. A manufacturer claims that the average lifetime of his light bulbs is 36 months.
Ho : μ = 36 months
Ha : μ ≠ 36 months
 Practice Test
State the null and alternative hypotheses for each statement.

1. The average pulse rate of female joggers is less than 72 beats per minute.
2. The average age of sales representatives at a drug company is greater than 27.6 years.
3. The average content of soda in can is equal to 300 ml.
4. A psychologist claims that the mean age at which children start walking is 12.5 months.
5. The average weight loss of people who enrolled in an aerobics class for one month is at
least 8.6 pounds.
Hypothesis Testing using the p-
value Method
1. Specify the Null Hypothesis
2. Specify the Alternative Hypothesis
3. Set the Significance Level (a)
4. Calculate the Test Statistic and Corresponding P-Value
5. Drawing a Conclusion
Example:

You might implement protocols for performing intubation on

pediatric patients in the pre-hospital setting. To evaluate
whether these protocols were successful in improving
intubation rates, you could measure the intubation rate over
time in one group randomly assigned to training in the new
protocols, and compare this to the intubation rate over time in
another control group that did not receive training in the new
protocols.
 Specify the Null Hypothesis

 The null hypothesis (H0) is a statement of no effect, relationship, or

difference between two or more groups or factors. In research studies,
a researcher is usually interested in disproving the null hypothesis.

Examples:
 There is no difference in intubation rates across ages 0 to 5 years.
 The intervention and control groups have the same survival rate (or, the
intervention does not improve survival rate).
 There is no association between injury type and whether or not the patient received
an IV in the prehospital setting.
 Specify the Alternative
Hypothesis
 The alternative hypothesis (H1) is the statement that there is an
effect or difference.

 This is usually the hypothesis the researcher is interested in proving.

The alternative hypothesis can be one-sided (only provides one
direction, e.g., lower) or two-sided.

 We often use two-sided tests even when our true hypothesis is one-
sided because it requires more evidence against the null
hypothesis to accept the alternative hypothesis.
Examples:

 The intubation success rate differs with the age of the patient being
treated (two-sided).

 The time to resuscitation from cardiac arrest is lower for the intervention
group than for the control (one-sided).

 There is an association between injury type and whether or not the

patient received an IV in the prehospital setting (two sided).
 Set the Significance Level (a)

 The significance level (denoted by the Greek letter

alpha— a) is generally set at 0.05. This means that there
is a 5% chance that you will accept your alternative
hypothesis when your null hypothesis is actually true. The
smaller the significance level, the greater the burden of
proof needed to reject the null hypothesis, or in other
words, to support the alternative hypothesis.
 Calculate the Test Statistic and
Corresponding P-Value
 The p-value describes the probability of obtaining a sample statistic as or
more extreme by chance alone if your null hypothesis is true. This p-
value is determined based on the result of your test statistic. Your
conclusions about the hypothesis are based on your p-value and your
significance level.

Examples:

 P-value = 0.01 (This will happen 1 in 100 times by pure chance if your null hypothesis is
true. Not likely to happen strictly by chance).

 P-value = 0.75 (This will happen 75 in 100 times by pure chance if your null hypothesis is
true. Very likely to occur strictly by chance).
Cautions about p-values

 Your sample size directly impacts your p-value. Large sample sizes
produce small p-values even when differences between groups are
not meaningful. You should always verify the practical relevance of
your results. On the other hand, a sample size that is too small can
result in a failure to identify a difference when one truly exists.

 Plan your sample size ahead of time so that you have enough
information from your sample to show a meaningful relationship or
difference if one exists.
Examples:

 Average ages were significantly different between the two groups (16.2 years vs.
16.7 years; p = 0.01; n=1,000). Is this an important difference? Probably not, but
the large sample size has resulted in a small p-value.

 Average ages were not significantly different between the two groups (10.4 years
vs. 16.7 years; p = 0.40, n=10). Is this an important difference? It could be, but
because the sample size is small, we can't determine for sure if this is a true
difference or just happened due to the natural variability in age within these two
groups.
 Drawing a Conclusion

 P-value <= significance level (a) => Reject your null hypothesis
in favor of your alternative hypothesis. Your result is statistically
significant.

 P-value > significance level (a) => Fail to reject your null
hypothesis. Your result is not statistically significant.
 Hypothesis testing is not set up so that you can absolutely prove a null
hypothesis. Therefore, when you do not find evidence against the null
hypothesis, you fail to reject the null hypothesis.

 When you do find strong enough evidence against the null hypothesis,
you reject the null hypothesis.

 Your conclusions also translate into a statement about your alternative

hypothesis.
 When presenting the results of a hypothesis test, include the
descriptive statistics in your conclusions as well.

 Report exact p-values rather than a certain range.

Example:
"The intubation rate differed significantly by patient age with younger
patients have a lower rate of successful intubation (p=0.02)."
Example:

H0: There is no difference in survival between the intervention and control group.
H1: There is a difference in survival between the intervention and control group.
a = 0.05; 20% increase in survival for the intervention group; p-value = 0.002

Conclusion:

 Reject the null hypothesis in favor of the alternative hypothesis.

 The difference in survival between the intervention and control group was statistically
significant.
 There was a 20% increase in survival for the intervention group compared to control
(p=0.002).
Example:

H0: There is no difference in survival between the intervention and control group.
H1: There is a difference in survival between the intervention and control group.
a = 0.05; 5% increase in survival between the intervention and control group;
p-value = 0.20

Conclusion:

 Fail to reject the null hypothesis.

 The difference in survival between the intervention and control group was not
statistically significant.
 There was no significant increase in survival for the intervention group compared to
control (p=0.20).
 Sample Research Titles

1. STRESS, JOB SATISFACTION AND PERFORMANCE OF THE FACULTY IN THE UEP SYSTEM
2. COMPETENCE, STRESS, AND ATTITUDE TOWARDS TEACHING OF INTERMEDIATE MUSIC
TEACHERS AND PUPILS’ PERFORMANCE IN THE DIVISION OF NORTHERN SAMAR
3. SELF-EFFICACY AND RESILIENCY OF SECONDARY PUBLIC SCHOOL PRINCIPALS IN
NORTHERN SAMAR
4. THE SCHOOL HEADS ADHERENCE TO NATIONAL COMPETENCY-BASED STANDARDS
AND SCHOOL PERFORMANCE IN THE DIVISION OF NORTHERN SAMAR: INPUTS TO
GRADUATE TEACHER EDUCATION CURRICULUM
5. THE EFFECT OF GAMES AND PUZZLES IN TEACHING ELEMENTARY ALGEBRA IN THE
UNIVERSITY OF EASTERN PHILIPPINES LABORATORY HIGH SCHOOL