Delhi Public School Newtown, Kolkata
Session 2025–26
Class XII — Project No. 1
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## TOPIC:
To Explain the Concept of Conditional Probability, Theory of Total Probability, and
Concept of Bayes’ Theorem with Suitable Examples
Date of Submission: 14.07.26
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## 1. Certificate
_(To be provided by the subject teacher)_
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## 2. Content
1. Certificate
2. Content
3. Acknowledgement
4. Introduction
5. Objective
6. Main Body
a. Conditional Probability
b. Total Probability
c. Bayes’ Theorem
7. Conclusion
8. Bibliography
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## 3. Acknowledgement
I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my Mathematics teacher for guiding me
throughout this project. I also thank my school, Delhi Public School Newtown, for
providing me with the opportunity to undertake this project. Finally, I extend my
appreciation to my parents and friends who supported me during this work.
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## 4. Introduction
Probability is the branch of mathematics concerned with the study of uncertain or random
events. It gives us a measure of how likely it is for a particular event to occur. The
concept of probability dates back to the 16th and 17th centuries, when mathematicians
like Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat analyzed gambling problems, leading to the birth
of probability theory. Over time, this field has evolved into a powerful mathematical tool,
now widely used in science, engineering, economics, artificial intelligence, and everyday
decision-making.
In probability theory, an event is a specific outcome or a set of outcomes of a random
experiment. Events are subsets of a larger set called the sample space, which includes all
possible outcomes. Events can be classified based on their relationships. Two events are
said to be mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one prevents the occurrence of the
other—for example, getting a 2 and getting a 5 on a single die roll. Events are exhaustive
when they together account for all possible outcomes of the experiment; for instance,
getting heads or tails in a coin toss forms an exhaustive set of events.
The addition law of probability applies when calculating the probability of the occurrence
of at least one of multiple mutually exclusive events. If two events, A and B, cannot
happen at the same time (i.e., ( A \cap B = \emptyset )), then the probability that either A
or B occurs is given by:
[ P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) ]
This law can be extended to more than two mutually exclusive events. It simplifies the
computation of combined probabilities when events do not overlap and forms the
foundation for more complex probability principles such as total probability and Bayes’
theorem.
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## 5. Objective
The objective of this project is to explore and understand the fundamental concepts of
conditional probability, the theorem of total probability, and Bayes’ theorem—three key
pillars in the study of probability. Conditional probability helps us evaluate the likelihood
of an event occurring given that another event has already taken place. The theorem of
total probability allows us to compute the overall probability of an event based on various
mutually exclusive and exhaustive scenarios. Bayes’ theorem builds upon these concepts
to update existing probabilities when new evidence or information becomes available.
Through this project, I aim to analyze these theories in detail, provide step-by-step
explanations, and illustrate them using clear and practical examples. This study will not
only strengthen my understanding of probability but also highlight how these concepts
apply to real-life problems and decision-making under uncertainty.
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## 6. Main Body
...
## 7. Conclusion
Through this project, I have explored the interconnected concepts of conditional
probability, the theorem of total probability, and Bayes’ theorem. These tools allow us to
update our beliefs in the face of new evidence and are fundamental in fields like statistics,
machine learning, diagnostics, and risk assessment. A deeper understanding of these
principles enhances our decision-making abilities under uncertainty.
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## 8. Bibliography
- NCERT Mathematics Textbook for Class XII
- R.D. Sharma Mathematics
- Khan Academy – Probability and Statistics
- Wikipedia – Bayes’ Theorem, Conditional Probability
- https://brilliant.org
- https://byjus.com/maths
