📘 **LECTURE NOTES – ELECTIONS & VOTING BEHAVIOR**
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## 🧠 Core Questions
- How can we explain voting preferences?
- What factors shape voting behavior?
- What variables can influence outcomes in elections?
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## 🔬 Key Concepts
### 🔹 Variables
- **Variable**: A characteristic or attribute that can vary (e.g., gender, age,
ethnicity).
- **Independent Variable (IV)**: The factor believed to influence or cause changes
in another variable (e.g., ethnicity, education level).
- **Dependent Variable (DV)**: The outcome that is measured and depends on the IV (
(e.g., voting behavior).
- **Hypothesis**: A proposed relationship between two or more variables (e.g.,
“Secular individuals tend to vote for secular parties”).
📌 Types of Correlation:
- **Positive Correlation**: As one variable increases, so does the other.
- **Negative Correlation**: As one increases, the other decreases.
- **No Correlation**: No clear relationship between variables.
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## 📚 3 Major Theories Explaining Voting Behavior
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### 1. **Sociological Theory / Social Determinants Model**
- Voting behavior is shaped by **social identity and group membership**.
- Key factors: **class, race, religion, income, gender, urban/rural location**.
- In the EU: white-collar workers often vote for center-right parties; working-
class often vote left.
- These patterns reflect **structural influences** on political preference.
📌 **Turkish Example**: Alevi voters often align with secular-left parties like CHP
due to shared identity features.
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### 2. **Psychological Theory / Party Identification (Michigan Model)**
- Voter behavior rooted in **long-term emotional attachment** to a party.
- Party ID becomes part of a person’s **self-concept**.
- Influenced by **family, community, and early socialization**.
- Explains **loyalty and consistency** in voting, especially in stable democracies.
🔄 Positive or Negative ID:
- Positive: Strong emotional loyalty (e.g., Kurdish voter supporting DEM).
- Negative: Strong emotional rejection (e.g., Tunceli voters rejecting MHP).
📌 **Turkish Context**: Swing voters are relatively rare; **party loyalty is high**,
especially among ideological or ethnic groups.
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### 3. **Rational Choice Theory / Economic Voting**
- Voters act **strategically**, like utility-maximizing individuals.
- They weigh **costs and benefits**, vote based on personal or societal gains.
- Assumes **rationality** = choosing the option that brings highest utility.
📊 Two Types:
- **Retrospective Voting**: Judging the incumbent’s past performance.
→ "Was I better off under this government?"
- **Prospective Voting**: Judging parties by **future promises** or expected gains.
📌 **Limits in Practice**:
- Voters may lack perfect information.
- Often **ignore social and psychological factors** in favor of utility.
🔁 **Turkish Examples**:
- 2002: AKP wins due to retrospective punishment of economic crisis.
- 2023: Despite poor economy, many still voted AKP due to identity (limits of
rationality).
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## ✍️ Essay Tips:
- Combine theories for complex analysis (e.g., economic dissatisfaction filtered
through party ID).
- Use **independent vs dependent variable** framing to structure research-based
answers.
- Contrast **party ID loyalty vs rational calculation** for explaining voter
stability vs shifts.
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