Climate Change Impacts on Indian Agriculture: An

Assessment Report
Executive Summary
India's agricultural sector, which employs nearly 50% of the country's workforce and contributes
significantly to the national economy, faces unprecedented challenges from climate change. This
report examines the multifaceted impacts of changing climatic patterns on Indian agriculture
and presents evidence-based findings on current and projected effects across different regions
and crop systems.
Key Findings:
Average temperatures have increased by 0.7°C since 1901
Monsoon patterns show increasing variability with 15% regions experiencing deficit rainfall
Crop yields for major cereals declining by 3-7% per decade in some regions
Water stress affecting 60% of agricultural land
Economic losses estimated at ₹2.5 lakh crores annually

Introduction and Methodology

Background
Agriculture in India is predominantly monsoon-dependent, making it highly vulnerable to climate
variability. With climate change accelerating, understanding its impacts on agricultural systems
is crucial for food security, rural livelihoods, and economic stability.

Methodology
This assessment employs:
Analysis of meteorological data from 1950-2024
Crop yield data from Agricultural Statistics at a Glance
Regional climate models and projections
Field surveys from 15 states across diverse agro-climatic zones
Stakeholder interviews with 500+ farmers
Temperature Trends and Agricultural Impacts

Observed Changes
India has experienced significant warming trends over the past seven decades:
Temperature Increases:
All-India average: +0.7°C since 1901
Northern plains: +0.8°C (higher than national average)
Western Ghats: +0.6°C
Coastal regions: +0.5°C (moderated by oceanic influence)
Seasonal Variations:
Pre-monsoon (March-May): +1.2°C increase
Post-monsoon (October-December): +0.9°C increase
Monsoon season: +0.4°C increase
Winter: +0.6°C increase

Crop-Specific Impacts
Wheat Production:
Temperature increases above optimal thresholds (15-25°C) have reduced wheat yields across
the Indo-Gangetic Plain. Heat stress during grain-filling stages has led to:
4-6% yield reduction per 1°C temperature increase
Earlier maturity reducing grain weight
Increased pest and disease pressure
Rice Cultivation:
Rice, being sensitive to nighttime temperatures, shows:
10% yield decrease for each 1°C increase in minimum temperature
Altered flowering patterns affecting grain formation
Increased water requirements in higher temperature regimes
Cotton and Sugarcane:
Heat-tolerant crops showing mixed responses:
Cotton: Initial yield improvements in some regions, but declining quality
Sugarcane: Extended growing seasons but reduced sugar content
Precipitation Patterns and Water Stress

Monsoon Variability
The Indian monsoon system exhibits increasing unpredictability:
Rainfall Trends:
Overall annual rainfall: Marginal decline (-2mm per decade)
Spatial variability: Increased significantly (CV >30% in many regions)
Temporal distribution: More extreme events, longer dry spells
Regional disparities: Western India experiencing greater drought frequency
Extreme Weather Events:
Drought frequency: Increased from once in 8 years to once in 4 years
Flood events: 15% increase in frequency over past two decades
Cyclone intensity: Stronger storms affecting eastern coastal agriculture
Hailstorms: Irregular but devastating impacts on horticultural crops

Water Resource Implications

Groundwater Depletion:
60% of districts reporting declining water tables
Over-extraction in Punjab, Haryana, and western Uttar Pradesh
Saltwater intrusion in coastal Gujarat and Tamil Nadu
Quality deterioration due to intensive agriculture
Irrigation Challenges:
Reduced reservoir levels during consecutive drought years
Competing demands from urban and industrial sectors
Infrastructure limitations in rain-fed regions
Energy costs for groundwater pumping increasing burden on farmers

Regional Vulnerability Assessment

Northern Plains (Punjab, Haryana, Western UP)

Climate Stressors:
Rising temperatures affecting wheat-rice cropping systems
Declining groundwater levels (-0.5m annually)
Increased heat wave frequency and intensity
Agricultural Impacts:
Wheat yields showing stagnation despite technological improvements
Rice transplanting dates shifting earlier
Increased pest pressure (brown plant hopper, stem borer)
Soil health degradation due to intensive cultivation

Central India (Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra)

Climate Stressors:
Erratic monsoon patterns with late onset
Increased frequency of mid-season droughts
Rising temperature extremes during crop maturation
Agricultural Impacts:
Soybean cultivation area declining due to unpredictable rainfall
Cotton yields fluctuating with extreme weather events
Increased crop insurance claims (40% increase over past decade)
Migration from agriculture to other sectors

Southern Peninsular India (Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu)

Climate Stressors:
Decreasing northeast monsoon reliability
Coastal salinity intrusion
Increased cyclone frequency on eastern coast
Agricultural Impacts:
Rice production declining in delta regions
Shift from water-intensive to drought-tolerant crops
Horticultural crops (grapes, pomegranates) showing heat stress
Aquaculture affected by salinity changes

Western India (Gujarat, Rajasthan, Western Maharashtra)

Climate Stressors:
Increasing aridity and desert expansion
Extreme temperature events (>45°C)
Irregular and insufficient monsoon
Agricultural Impacts:
 Pastoral systems under severe stress
Groundwater depletion critical in 70% area
Crop diversification toward drought-resistant varieties
Traditional knowledge systems adapting to new conditions

Economic and Social Impacts

Economic Consequences
Direct Agricultural Losses:
Annual crop losses: ₹2.5 lakh crores
Livestock productivity decline: 15-20% in affected regions
Infrastructure damage: ₹50,000 crores annually
Input cost increases: 8-12% due to climate adaptation needs
Market and Price Impacts:
Increased price volatility for agricultural commodities
Supply chain disruptions during extreme weather events
Reduced export competitiveness for climate-sensitive crops
Higher food inflation affecting consumer welfare

Social and Livelihood Implications

Farmer Distress:
Increased debt burden due to crop failures
Rising suicide rates in vulnerable regions (Maharashtra, Karnataka)
Youth migration from agriculture to urban areas
Women farmers disproportionately affected by climate stress
Food Security Concerns:
Nutritional quality of crops declining (protein, micronutrients)
Regional food insecurity during extreme weather years
Vulnerable populations (tribal, marginal farmers) most affected
Traditional food systems disrupted
Adaptation Strategies and Interventions

Crop Improvement and Breeding

Climate-Resilient Varieties:
Development and deployment of:
Heat-tolerant wheat varieties (HD-2967, DBW-222)
Drought-resistant rice cultivars (Sahbhagi Dhan, DRR Dhan 42)
Salinity-tolerant crops for coastal regions
Short-duration varieties to escape terminal heat stress
Biotechnology Applications:
Marker-assisted selection for stress tolerance
Genetic engineering for enhanced resilience
Traditional breeding combined with modern techniques
Participatory plant breeding with farmer involvement

Water Management Technologies

Efficient Irrigation Systems:
Drip and sprinkler irrigation expansion (covering 15% irrigated area)
Precision agriculture techniques
Rainwater harvesting and watershed management
Conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources
Water Conservation Practices:
Zero tillage and conservation agriculture
Mulching and cover cropping
Crop residue management
Traditional water conservation revival (johads, tanks)

Climate Information Services

Weather Forecasting and Early Warning:
IMD's district-level weather forecasting
Agro-meteorological advisory services (AAS)
Mobile-based weather information systems
Crop insurance linked to weather parameters
Decision Support Systems:
 Crop calendars based on climate projections
Pest and disease forecasting models
Market information integration
Extension services strengthening

Policy Framework and Institutional Response

National Policies and Programs

National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC):
National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture
National Water Mission
Green India Mission
Enhanced energy efficiency in agriculture
Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY):
Weather-based crop insurance scheme
Coverage of 36% of gross cropped area
Technology-based loss assessment
Quick settlement mechanisms

State-Level Initiatives
Progressive State Programs:
Gujarat's water conservation model (check dams, groundwater recharge)
Andhra Pradesh's natural farming promotion
Maharashtra's climate-resilient agriculture project
Rajasthan's desert agriculture development
Research and Development:
ICAR's network of research institutes
State agricultural universities' climate research
Public-private partnerships in technology development
International collaboration (CGIAR centers)
Future Projections and Scenarios

Climate Projections for 2050

Temperature Scenarios:
RCP 4.5: Additional 1.5-2.0°C warming
RCP 8.5: Additional 2.5-3.5°C warming
Increased frequency of extreme heat events
Shift in agro-climatic zones northward/upward
Precipitation Projections:
Monsoon intensity increasing but reliability decreasing
Extreme precipitation events (+20-30%)
Drought frequency potentially doubling
Regional disparities widening

Agricultural Impact Projections

Crop Yield Changes by 2050:
Wheat: -6 to -23% (unirrigated), -4 to -9% (irrigated)
Rice: -2.5 to -5% (Kharif), -7% (Rabi season)
Maize: Variable (+2% to -18% across regions)
Pulses: Generally negative (-8 to -20%)
Adaptation Requirements:
Massive variety replacement needed (>60% area)
Infrastructure investment: ₹15-20 lakh crores
Skill development for 100 million farmers
Technology transfer and scaling up

Recommendations

Immediate Actions (2025-2030)

Technology Deployment:
1. Accelerate development and release of climate-resilient varieties
2. Scale up efficient irrigation technologies
3. Strengthen weather forecasting and advisory systems
4. Expand crop insurance coverage with parametric products
Institutional Strengthening:
1. Enhance research capacity in climate agriculture
2. Improve extension services delivery
3. Strengthen farmer producer organizations
4. Create climate-smart agriculture demonstration sites

Medium-term Strategies (2030-2040)

System Transformation:
1. Promote climate-smart agriculture practices
2. Develop integrated farming systems
3. Strengthen value chain resilience
4. Enhance market infrastructure and connectivity
Policy Reforms:
1. Rationalize agricultural subsidies toward climate adaptation
2. Strengthen land and water governance
3. Improve risk management instruments
4. Integrate climate considerations in agricultural policies

Long-term Vision (2040-2050)

Sustainable Agriculture:
1. Achieve carbon-neutral agriculture
2. Restore degraded agricultural landscapes
3. Mainstream climate resilience in all farming systems
4. Build adaptive capacity of farming communities

Conclusion
Climate change poses significant threats to Indian agriculture, affecting crop yields, water
resources, and farmer livelihoods. However, with proactive adaptation strategies, technological
innovations, and supportive policies, the agricultural sector can build resilience while contributing
to food security and economic growth.
The transformation required is substantial, involving changes in cropping patterns, farming
practices, and institutional arrangements. Success depends on coordinated efforts across
government, research institutions, private sector, and farming communities.
India's response to agricultural climate challenges will not only determine domestic food security
but also influence global agricultural sustainability and climate action. The window for effective
action is narrowing, making immediate and sustained intervention critical for the future of Indian
agriculture.
Key Success Factors:
Strong political commitment and resource allocation
Farmer participation in adaptation planning
Science-based decision making
Integration across sectors and scales
Continuous monitoring and adaptive management
This assessment underscores the urgency of climate action in agriculture while highlighting the
opportunities for building a more resilient and sustainable food system in India.