Air Quality Modelling

By: Darshan Salunke

Assistant Professor
Department of Environmental Science & Technology
 Introduction to Air Quality Modelling
• Air quality models use mathematical and numerical techniques to
simulate the physical and chemical processes that affect air pollutants
as they disperse and react in the atmosphere.
• Based on inputs of meteorological data and source information like
emission rates and stack height, these models are designed to
characterize primary pollutants that are emitted directly into the
atmosphere and, in some cases, secondary pollutants that are formed
as a result of complex chemical reactions within the atmosphere.
 Introduction to Air Quality Modelling
• These models are important to our air quality management system because
they are widely used by agencies tasked with controlling air pollution to
both identify source contributions to air quality problems and assist in the
design of effective strategies to reduce harmful air pollutants.
• For example, air quality models can be used during the permitting process
to verify that a new source will not exceed ambient air quality standards or,
if necessary, determine appropriate additional control requirements.
• In addition, air quality models can also be used to predict future pollutant
concentrations from multiple sources after the implementation of a new
regulatory program, in order to estimate the effectiveness of the program in
reducing harmful exposures to humans and the environment.
Introduction to Air Quality Modelling
• The most commonly used air quality models include the following:
• Dispersion Modelling - These models are typically used in the permitting
process to estimate the concentration of pollutants at specified ground-level
receptors surrounding an emissions source.
• Photochemical Modelling - These models are typically used in regulatory
or policy assessments to simulate the impacts from all sources by estimating
pollutant concentrations and deposition of both inert and chemically
reactive pollutants over large spatial scales.
• Receptor Modelling - These models are observational techniques which
use the chemical and physical characteristics of gases and particles
measured at source and receptor to both identify the presence of and to
quantify source contributions to receptor concentrations.
• Air quality models can also be divided in following categories:
Deterministic, Statistical and Physical. Deterministic models are most
widely used model. Gaussian Plume model, Box model, Eulerian Model
and Lagrangian model are the common models of this category. Another
popular model is wind tunnel model which comes under physical model
category.
 Deterministic Models
• The deterministic mathematical models calculate the pollutant
concentrations from emission inventory and meteorological variables
according to the solution of various equations that represent the
relevant physical processes.
• The deterministic based air quality model is developed by relating the
rate of change of pollutant concentration in terms of average wind and
turbulent diffusion which, in turn, is derived from the mass
conservation principle.
 Limitations of Deterministic models
• Inadequate dispersion parameters
• Inadequate treatment of dispersion upwind of the road
• Requires a cumbersome numerical integration especially when the
wind forms a small angle with the roadways.
• Gaussian based plume models perform poorly when wind speeds are
less than 1m/s.
• The other limitations of these models are large computational costs in
terms of time and storage of data. It also requires large amounts of
input data.
 Statistical Models
• Statistical models calculate pollutant concentrations by statistical
methods from meteorological and emission parameters after an
appropriate statistical relationship has been obtained empirically from
measured concentration.
• Regression and multiple regression models describes the relationship
between predictors (meteorological and emission parameters) and
predictant (pollutant concentrations)
 Limitations of Statistical models
• Require long historical data sets and lack of physical interpretation.
• Regression modelling often underperforms when used to model non-
linear systems.
• Time series modelling requires considerable knowledge in time series
statistics to identify an appropriate air quality model.
• Statistical models are site specific.
 Physical models
• The physical simulation studies have shown high potential to
understand complex urban dispersion phenomenon. The pollutant
concentrations measured within the physical model can be converted
to equivalent atmospheric concentrations through the use of
appropriate scaling relationship.
 Limitations of physical models
• The major limitations of these models are construction and operational
cost.
• Simulation of real time air pollution dispersion is expensive.
• Real time forecast is not possible.
 Dispersion Modelling
• Dispersion modelling uses mathematical formulations to characterize
the atmospheric processes that disperse a pollutant emitted by a
source.
• Based on emissions and meteorological inputs, a dispersion model can
be used to predict concentrations at selected downwind receptor
locations.
• These air quality models are used to determine compliance with
National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), and other
regulatory requirements
 Dispersion Modelling
• Air quality dispersion modelling is a tool that is used to relate the release of
air pollutants to the corresponding pollutant concentrations in the ambient
atmosphere.
• Models are useful to study the consequences of new sources of air pollution
or changing the amount of pollutants released into the air from existing
emission sources.
• Pre-construction permitting under the Clean Air Act often requires the use
of models to estimate the air quality impact from proposed new and
modified sources.
• Other applications involve assessing present air quality, defining cost
effective emissions reduction strategies and analysing the effects of
potential and actual accidental releases of air toxics
What kind of information do air dispersion
models require?
• Air dispersion models require input data in three main categories:
Meteorological conditions, source/emission parameters, and land
use/terrain information.
• Specific requirements vary by source type and the model to be used.
• Some of the basic models input data include:
 Meteorological data
• It is used by the model to help simulate plume transport and dispersion.
• Data quantifying the wind direction and speed, ambient temperature, mixing
height and atmospheric stability are used as input to the model.
• Meteorological data recorded hourly by nearby representative National
Weather Service stations are often used as input to refined models.
• Use of actual meteorological data recorded at representative locations can
be used to predict both short and long-term concentrations.
• Screening models often utilize combinations of stability classes and wind
speeds to identify the worst-case meteorological conditions, i.e., the
combination of wind speed and stability that results in maximum predicted
ground level concentrations.
• Screening models typically estimate hourly pollutant concentrations that can
be scaled to longer averaging times using empirically derived ratios.
 Source/Emission Parameters
• It define how the emissions are released into the atmosphere. For
example, for pollutants that are vented from stacks, emission
information needed by models include the temperature and velocity of
the gases exiting the stack, height and diameter of the stack, and
emission rates of the pollutants to be addressed.
• Models also require dimensions of adjacent building structures if
estimating pollutant concentrations due to downwash (entrainment of
pollutants into building wakes and cavities).
 Land use information and terrain
elevations
• They are also important input parameters in the dispersion modelling
analysis. The rate at which a plume disperses and eventually reaches ground
level is affected by the degree of urbanization of the surrounding area.
• Generally, greater plume dispersion is found in urban environments due to
enhanced mechanical and thermal turbulence.
• Land use within the vicinity of the facility is used to determine whether the
area should be viewed as urban or rural.
• Additionally, terrain information is input to the model. This data is used to
establish the base elevation of onsite structures including buildings and the
stack.
• It is also used to establish the elevation of receptors where pollutant
concentrations are to be predicted.
 How are air quality models used?
• Models are typically used to predict future pollutant concentrations
from new sources or sources that are undergoing modification.
• Regulators will use modelling results to insure predicted ground level
pollutant concentrations meet ambient standards and thresholds
established to protect human health and welfare.
• Modelling can be a useful tool to evaluate the effectiveness of
implementing emission control strategies.
• Modelling is also used to help locate monitors that measure actual air
pollution levels in the lower atmosphere.
• Finally, modelling can be used to analyse actual or potential accidents
that release contaminants to the atmosphere.
 What pollutants are typically modeled?
• Models can be used for evaluating the dispersion of a wide variety of
air pollutants.
• The chemical and physical properties of a pollutant and how the
pollutant is actually released into the atmosphere are important
considerations when selecting the most appropriate model.
• For example, hot exhaust gases released from a stack would be
buoyant and be subject to plume rise whereas a cold, heavier than-air
pollutant release would behave as a dense gas.
 What pollutants are typically modeled?
• Determining the concentration of ozone, the deposition of acid rain or
the impairment to visibility requires specialized models due to the way
pollutants are transformed once emitted into the atmosphere.
• Pollutants that are highly toxic and have the potential to be emitted in
large quantities in the event of an industrial accident (e.g. tank failure)
can be modelled using accidental release models.
• These are special models designed to predict short term pollutant
concentrations resulting in a sudden release of a large quantity of a
toxic chemical.
• Accidental release models usually form the basis of an emergency
response plan and can be used to help identify affected population and
establish evacuation routes in the event of an emergency.
 Photochemical Modelling
• Photochemical air quality models have become widely recognized and
routinely utilized tools for regulatory analysis and attainment
demonstrations by assessing the effectiveness of control strategies.
• These photochemical models are large-scale air quality models that
simulate the changes of pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere
using a set of mathematical equations characterizing the chemical and
physical processes in the atmosphere.
• These models are applied at multiple spatial scales from local,
regional, national, and global.
 Photochemical Modelling
• There are two types of photochemical air quality models commonly
used in air quality assessments:
➢The Lagrangian trajectory model that employs a moving frame of
reference
➢The Eulerian grid model that uses a fixed coordinate system with
respect to the ground.
• Earlier generation modeling efforts often adopted the Lagrangian
approach to simulate the pollutants formation because of its
computational simplicity.
 Photochemical Modelling
• The disadvantage of Lagrangian approach, however, is that the
physical processes it can describe are somewhat incomplete.
• Most of the current operational photochemical air quality models have
adopted the three-dimensional Eulerian grid modeling mainly because
of its ability to better and more fully characterize physical processes in
the atmosphere and predict the species concentrations throughout the
entire model domain.
• Eulerian models include both single box models and multidimensional
grid-based air quality models.
• Box models were used early and still enjoy some use today for studies
focusing on atmospheric chemistry alone.
• They lack significant physical realism such as horizontal and vertical
transport, and spatial variation.
• Grid models are potentially the most powerful, and involve the least-
restrictive assumptions but are also the most computationally
intensive.
• They solve a finite approximation by dividing the modelling region
into a large number of cells, horizontally and vertically, which interact
with each other to simulate the various processes that affect the
evolution of pollutant concentrations, including chemistry, diffusion,
advection, sedimentation (for particles), and deposition (both wet and
dry).
• Most of the current photochemical models are Eulerian.
 Receptor Modelling
• Receptor models are mathematical or statistical procedures for identifying
and quantifying the sources of air pollutants at a receptor location.
• Unlike photochemical and dispersion air quality models, receptor models do
not use pollutant emissions, meteorological data and chemical
transformation mechanisms to estimate the contribution of sources to
receptor concentrations.
• Instead, receptor models use the chemical and physical characteristics of
gases and particles measured at source and receptor to both identify the
presence of and to quantify source contributions to receptor concentrations.
• These models are therefore a natural complement to other air quality models
and are used as part of State Implementation Plans (SIPs) for identifying
sources contributing to air quality problems.