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BUSINESS
ANALYSIS
AND
VALUATION
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Business Analysis and Valuation: © 2019, Cengage Learning EMEA
IFRS Standards edition, 5th Edition
Krishna G. Palepu, Paul M. Healy WCN: 02-300
& Erik Peek ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. No part of this work covered by the copyright
herein may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any
Publisher: Annabel Ainscow means, except as permitted by U.S. copyright law, without the prior
List Manager: Jenny Grene written permission of the copyright owner.
Marketing Manager: Sophie Clarke While the publisher has taken all reasonable care in the preparation of
Senior Content Project Manager: this book, the publisher makes no representation, express or implied,
Sue Povey with regard to the accuracy of the information contained in this book
Manufacturing Buyer: Elaine Bevan and cannot accept any legal responsibility or liability for any errors or
omissions from the book or the consequences thereof.
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Products and services that are referred to in this book may be
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Cover design: Simon Levy Associates owners. The publishers and author/s make no claim to these
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ISBN: 978-1-4737-5842-1
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Brief contents
PART I Framework 1
1 A framework for business analysis and valuation using financial statements 2
iii
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Contents
Preface viii
Acknowledgements xii
PART II
Authors xiii Business analysis and valuation
Digital Support Resources xiv
tools 45
iv
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Contents v
Step 5: Identify potential red flags 84 Problem 3 H&M and Inditex’s non-current assets 155
Step 6: Recast financial statements and undo accounting Notes 156
distortions 85
CASE Accounting for the iPhone Upgrade Program (A) 158
Recasting financial statements 86
Some complications 86
Categories of financial statement items 87
5 Financial analysis 174
Ratio analysis 174
Accounting analysis pitfalls 95 Measuring overall profitability 178
Conservative accounting is not “good” accounting 95 Decomposing profitability: Traditional approach 179
Not all unusual accounting is questionable 96 Decomposing profitability: Alternative approach 180
Common accounting standards are not the same as common Assessing operating management: Decomposing net profit
accounting practices 96 margins 184
Value of accounting data and accounting analysis 96 Evaluating investment management: Decomposing asset
Summary 97 turnover 188
Evaluating financial management: Financial leverage 191
Core concepts 97
Putting it all together: Assessing sustainable growth rate 194
Questions, exercises, and problems 98 Historical patterns of ratios for European firms 197
Problem 1 Key accounting policies 99 Cash flow analysis 197
Problem 2 Fashion retailers’ key accounting policies 99 Cash flow and funds flow statements 197
Problem 3 Euro Disney and the first five steps of Analyzing cash flow information 199
accounting analysis 100 Analysis of Hennes & Mauritz’s and Inditex’s cash flow 202
Notes 102 Summary 203
Appendix A: First-time adoption of IFRS Standards 104 Core concepts 203
Appendix B: Recasting financial statements into Questions, exercises, and problems 205
standardized templates 105 Problem 1 ROE decomposition 205
Case Toshiba: Accounting fraud 111 Problem 2 Ratios of three fashion retailers 208
Problem 3 The Fiat Group in 2008 211
4 Accounting analysis: Accounting Problem 4 Ahold versus Delhaize 213
adjustments 118 Notes 215
Recognition of assets 118
Who owns or controls resources? 119 Appendix: Hennes & Mauritz AB financial statements 216
Can economic benefits be measured with reasonable CASE Carrefour S.A. 221
certainty? 120
Have fair values of assets declined below book value? 120 6 Prospective analysis: Forecasting 232
Are fair value estimates accurate? 121 The overall structure of the forecast 232
Asset distortions 122 A Practical Framework for Forecasting 233
Recognition of liabilities 140 Information for forecasting 234
Has an obligation been incurred? 140 Performance behavior: A starting point 235
Can the obligation be measured? 140 Revenue growth behavior 236
Liability distortions 141 Earnings behavior 236
Returns on equity behavior 237
Equity distortions 147
The behavior of components of ROE 238
Contingent claims 147
Forecasting assumptions 239
Summary 148
Background: Macroeconomic and industry growth 239
Core concepts 149 Revenue growth 240
Questions, exercises, and problems 150 NOPAT margins 243
Problem 1 Impairment of non-current assets 153 Working capital to revenue 245
Problem 2 Audi, BMW, and Skoda’s research and Non-current assets to revenue 246
development 153 Non-operating investments 247
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vi Contents
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Contents vii
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Preface
F inancial statements are the basis for a wide range of business analyses. Managers use them to monitor and judge
their firms’ performance relative to competitors, to communicate with external investors, to help judge what
financial policies they should pursue, and to evaluate potential new businesses to acquire as part of their investment
strategy. Securities analysts use financial statements to rate and value companies they recommend to clients. Bankers
use them in deciding whether to extend a loan to a client and to determine the loan’s terms. Investment bankers
use them as a basis for valuing and analyzing prospective buyouts, mergers, and acquisitions. And consultants use
them as a basis for competitive analysis for their clients. Not surprisingly, therefore, there is a strong demand among
business students for a course that provides a framework for using financial statement data in a variety of business
analysis and valuation contexts. The purpose of this book is to provide such a framework for business students and
practitioners. This IFRS Standards edition is the European adaptation of the authoritative US edition – authored by
Krishna G. Palepu and Paul M. Healy – that has been used in Accounting and Finance departments in universities
around the world. In 2007 we decided to write the first IFRS Standards edition because of the European business
environment’s unique character and the introduction of mandatory IFRS Standards reporting for public corpora-
tions in the European Union. This fifth IFRS Standards edition is a thorough update of the successful fourth edition,
incorporating new examples, cases, problems and exercises, and regulatory updates.
viii
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Preface ix
●● Chapter 10 on credit analysis includes a discussion of how credit ratings and default probability estimates can
be used in debt valuation. Chapter 11 on M&A analysis includes a discussion on how to perform a purchase
price allocation using the tools and techniques from Chapters 5 through 8.
●● Data, analyses, problems, and examples have been thoroughly updated in the fifth edition.
●● We have updated some of the fourth IFRS Standards edition’s cases (‘Carrefour SA,’ ‘Forecasting Earnings
and Earnings Growth in the European Oil and Gas Industry,’ ‘Two European Hotel Groups’) and have
included eight new cases: ‘Akris: Competition in the High-End Fashion Industry,’ ‘Toshiba: Accounting Fraud,’
‘Accounting for the iPhone Upgrade Program,’ ‘Valuation Multiples in Fast Fashion,’ ‘Ferrari: The 2015 Initial
Public Offering,’ ‘Tesco: From Troubles to Turnaround,’ ‘Spotify’s Direct Listing IPO,’ and ‘Valuing Europe’s fast-
est growing company: HelloFresh in 2017.’
Key features
This book differs from other texts in business and financial analysis in a number of important ways. We introduce
and develop a framework for business analysis and valuation using financial statement data. We then show how this
framework can be applied to a variety of decision contexts.
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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
x Preface
valuation models, we integrate the latest academic research with traditional approaches such as earnings and book
value multiples that are widely used in practice.
While we cover all four steps of business analysis and valuation in the book, we recognize that the extent of
their use depends on the user’s decision context. For example, bankers are likely to use business strategy analysis,
accounting analysis, financial analysis, and the forecasting portion of prospective analysis. They are less likely to be
interested in formally valuing a prospective client.
Companion website
A companion website accompanies this book. This website contains the following valuable material for instructors
and students:
●● Instructions for how to easily produce standardized financial statements in Excel.
●● Spreadsheets containing: (1) the reported and standardized financial statements of Hennes & Mauritz (H&M)
and Inditex; (2) calculations of H&M’s and Inditex’s ratios (presented in Chapter 5); (3) H&M’s forecasted
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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
Preface xi
financial statements (presented in Chapter 6); and (4) valuations of H&M’s shares (presented in Chapter 8).
Using these spreadsheets students can easily replicate the analyses presented in Chapters 5 through 8 and
perform “what-if ” analyses – i.e., to find out how the reported numbers change as a result of changes to the
standardized statements or forecasting assumptions.
●● Spreadsheets containing case material.
●● Answers to the discussion questions and case instructions (for instructors only).
●● A complete set of lecture slides (for instructors only).
Accompanying teaching notes to some of the case studies can be found at [Link] or www.
[Link]. Lecturers are able to register to access the teaching notes and other relevant information.
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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
Acknowledgements
xii
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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
Authors
KRISHNA G. PALEPU is the Ross Graham Walker Professor of Business Administration and Senior Advisor to the
President of Harvard University. During the past 25 years, Professor Palepu’s research has focused on corporate
strategy, governance, and disclosure. Professor Palepu is the winner of the American Accounting Association’s
Notable Contributions to Accounting Literature Award (in 1999) and the Wildman Award (in 1997).
PAUL M. HEALY is the James R. Williston Professor of Business Administration and Senior Associate Dean for Faculty
Development at the Harvard Business School. Professor Healy’s research has focused on corporate governance and
disclosure, mergers and acquisitions, earnings management, and management compensation. He has previously
worked at the MIT Sloan School of Management, ICI Ltd, and Arthur Young in New Zealand. Professor Healy
has won the Notable Contributions to Accounting Literature Award (in 1990 and 1999) and the Wild-man Award
(in 1997) for contributions to practice.
ERIK PEEK is Professor of Business Analysis and Valuation at Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University,
the Netherlands. Prior to joining RSM Erasmus University he has been an Associate Professor at Maastricht
University and a Visiting Associate Professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Professor
Peek is a CFA charterholder and holds a PhD from the VU University Amsterdam. His research has focused on
international accounting, financial analysis and valuation, and earnings management.
xiii
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C engage’s peer reviewed content for higher and
further education courses is accompanied by a range
of digital teaching and learning support resources. The
resources are carefully tailored to the specific needs of
the instructor, student and the course. Examples of the
kind of resources provided include:
be unstoppable
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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
Framework
PART I
1 A framework for business analysis and valuation using financial statements
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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
1 Avaluation
framework for business analysis and
using financial statements
This chapter outlines a comprehensive framework for financial statement analysis. Because financial state-
ments provide the most widely available data on public corporations’ economic activities, investors and other
stakeholders rely on financial reports to assess the plans and performance of firms and corporate managers.
A variety of questions can be addressed by business analysis using financial statements, as shown in the
following examples:
●● A security analyst may be interested in asking: “How well is the firm I am following performing? Did
the firm meet my performance expectations? If not, why not? What is the value of the firm’s stock given
my assessment of the firm’s current and future performance?”
●● A loan officer may need to ask: “What is the credit risk involved in lending a certain amount of money
to this firm? How well is the firm managing its liquidity and solvency? What is the firm’s business risk?
What is the additional risk created by the firm’s financing and dividend policies?”
●● A management consultant might ask: “What is the structure of the industry in which the firm is operat-
ing? What are the strategies pursued by various players in the industry? What is the relative performance
of different firms in the industry?”
●● A corporate manager may ask: “Is my firm properly valued by investors? Is our investor communication
program adequate to facilitate this process?”
●● A corporate manager could ask: “Is this firm a potential takeover target? How much value can be added
if we acquire this firm? How can we finance the acquisition?”
●● An independent auditor would want to ask: “Are the accounting policies and accrual estimates in this
company’s financial statements consistent with my understanding of this business and its recent perfor-
mance? Do these financial reports communicate the current status and significant risks of the business?”
In almost all countries in the world today, capital markets play an important role in channeling financial
resources from savers to business enterprises that need capital. Financial statement analysis is a valuable activity
when managers have complete information on a firm’s strategies, and a variety of institutional factors make it
unlikely that they fully disclose this information to suppliers of capital. In this setting, outside analysts attempt
to create “inside information” from analyzing financial statement data, thereby gaining valuable insights about
the firm’s current performance and future prospects.
To understand the contribution that financial statement analysis can make, it is important to understand the
role of financial reporting in the functioning of capital markets and the institutional forces that shape financial
statements. Therefore we present first a brief description of these forces; then we discuss the steps that an analyst
must perform to extract information from financial statements and provide valuable forecasts.
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Chapter 1 A framework for business analysis and valuation using financial statements 3
Savings
Financial Information
intermediaries intermediaries
Business
ideas
Figure 1.1 provides a schematic representation of how capital markets typically work. Savings in any econ-
omy are widely distributed among households. There are usually many new entrepreneurs and existing compa-
nies that would like to attract these savings to fund their business ideas. While both savers and entrepreneurs
would like to do business with each other, matching savings to business investment opportunities through the
use of capital markets – funding business ideas with the highest prospects first – is complicated for at least
three reasons:
●● Information asymmetry between savers and entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs typically have better
information than savers on the value of business investment opportunities.
●● Potentially conflicting interests – credibility problems. Communication by entrepreneurs to savers is
not completely credible because savers know that entrepreneurs have an incentive to inflate the value of
their ideas.
●● Expertise asymmetry. Savers generally lack the financial sophistication needed to analyze and
differentiate between the various business opportunities.
The information and incentive issues lead to what economists call the lemons problem, which can potentially
break down the functioning of the capital market.1 It works like this. Consider a situation where half the busi-
ness ideas are “good” and the other half are “bad.” If investors cannot distinguish between the two types of
business ideas, entrepreneurs with “bad” ideas will try to claim that their ideas are as valuable as the “good”
ideas. Realizing this possibility, investors value both good and bad ideas at an average level. Unfortunately,
this penalizes good ideas, and entrepreneurs with good ideas find the terms on which they can get financing
to be unattractive. As these entrepreneurs leave the capital market, the proportion of bad ideas in the market
increases. Over time, bad ideas “crowd out” good ideas, and investors lose confidence in this market.
The emergence of intermediaries can prevent such a market breakdown. Intermediaries are like a car
mechanic who provides an independent certification of a used car’s quality to help a buyer and seller agree on
a price. There are two types of intermediaries in the capital markets. Financial intermediaries, such as venture
capital firms, banks, collective investment funds, pension funds, and insurance companies, focus on aggregating
funds from individual investors and analyzing different investment alternatives to make investment decisions.
Information intermediaries, such as auditors, financial analysts, credit-rating agencies, and the financial press,
focus on providing or assuring information to investors (and to financial intermediaries who represent them)
on the quality of various business investment opportunities. Both these types of intermediaries add value by
helping investors distinguish “good” investment opportunities from the “bad” ones.
The relative importance of financial intermediaries and information intermediaries varies from country to
country for historical reasons. In countries where individual investors traditionally have had strong legal rights
to discipline entrepreneurs who invest in “bad” business ideas, such as in the UK, individual investors have
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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
4 PART I Framework
been more inclined to make their own investment decisions. In these countries, the funds that entrepreneurs
attract may come from a widely dispersed group of individual investors and be channeled through public stock
exchanges. Information intermediaries consequently play an important role in supplying individual investors
with the information that they need to distinguish between “good” and “bad” business ideas. In contrast, in
countries where individual investors traditionally have had weak legal rights to discipline entrepreneurs, such
as in many Continental European countries, individual investors have been more inclined to rely on the help
of financial intermediaries. In these countries, financial intermediaries, such as banks, tend to supply most of
the funds to entrepreneurs and can get privileged access to entrepreneurs’ private information.
Over the past decade, many countries in Europe have been moving towards a model of strong legal protection
of investors’ rights to discipline entrepreneurs and well-developed stock exchanges. In this model, financial
reporting plays a critical role in the functioning of both the information intermediaries and the financial
intermediaries. Information intermediaries add value either by enhancing the credibility of financial reports
(as auditors do) or by analyzing the information in the financial statements (as analysts and rating agencies do).
Financial intermediaries rely on the information in the financial statements to analyze investment opportunities
and supplement this information with other sources of information.
Ideally, the various intermediaries serve as a system of checks and balances to ensure the efficient functioning
of the capital markets system. However, this is not always the case as on occasion the intermediaries tend to
mutually reinforce rather than counterbalance each other. A number of problems can arise as a result of incen-
tive issues, governance issues within the intermediary organizations themselves, and conflicts of interest, as
evidenced by accounting scandals at companies such as Carillion, Olympus, Steinhoff, and Tesco. However, in
general this market mechanism functions efficiently, and prices reflect all available information on a particular
investment. Despite this overall market efficiency, individual securities may still be temporarily mispriced,
thereby justifying the need for financial statement analysis.
In the following section, we discuss key aspects of the financial reporting system design that enable it to play
effectively this vital role in the functioning of the capital markets.
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Chapter 1 A framework for business analysis and valuation using financial statements 5
4 A statement of other comprehensive income that outlines the sources of changes in equity that are (a) not
the result of transactions with the owners of the firm and (b) not included in the income statement.3
5 A statement of changes in equity that summarizes all sources of changes in equity during the period
between two consecutive balance sheets, consisting of (a) total comprehensive income – being the sum of
profit or loss [item 1] and other comprehensive income [item 4] – and (b) the financial effects of transac-
tions with the owners of the firm.
These statements are accompanied by notes that provide additional details on the financial statement line
items, as well as by management’s narrative discussion of the firm’s activities, performance, and risks in the
Management Commentary section.4
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6 PART I Framework
primary periodic performance index under accrual accounting. To compute profit or loss, the effects of eco-
nomic transactions are recorded on the basis of expected, not necessarily actual, cash receipts and payments.
Expected cash receipts from the delivery of products or services are recognized as revenues, and expected cash
outflows associated with these revenues are recognized as expenses. Timing differences between the moment of
recording costs or benefits and the moment of experiencing cash inflows or outflows result in the recognition
of assets and liabilities on the balance sheet.
While many rules and conventions govern a firm’s preparation of financial statements, only a few conceptual
building blocks form the foundation of accrual accounting. Starting from the balance sheet, the principles that
define a firm’s assets, liabilities, and equity are as follows:
●● Assets are economic resources controlled by a firm that (a) have the potential to produce future economic
benefits and (b) are measurable with a reasonable degree of certainty. An example of an asset is a firm’s
inventories that will produce economic benefits once sold and delivered to the firm’s customers.
●● Liabilities are economic obligations of a firm that (a) arise from benefits received in the past, (b) have the
potential of being required to be met, and (c) cannot be feasibly avoided by the firm. Examples of liabili-
ties are bonds or bank loans that must be settled in cash or performance obligations that must be settled
by providing services to a customer.
●● Equity is the difference between a firm’s assets and its liabilities.
The definitions of assets, liabilities, and equity lead to the fundamental relationship that governs a firm’s bal-
ance sheet:
Assets 5 Liabilities 1 Equity
The following definitions are critical to the (comprehensive) income statement, which summarizes a firm’s
income and expenses:5
●● Income or revenue consists of economic resources earned (or increases in assets that affect equity) and
performance obligations settled (or decreases in liabilities that affect equity) during a time period. Revenue
recognition is governed by the realization principle, which proposes that revenues should be recognized
when (a) the firm has provided all, or substantially all, the goods or services to be delivered to the customer
and (b) the customer has paid cash or is expected to pay cash with a reasonable degree of certainty.
●● Expenses are economic resources used up (or decreases in assets that affect equity) and economic
obligations created (or increases in liabilities that affect equity) during a time period.
●● Profit or loss is the difference between a firm’s income and expenses in a time period. The following
fundamental relationship is therefore reflected in a firm’s income statement:
Profit or loss 5 Income 2 Expenses
Note from the preceding definitions that the recognition of income and expenses depends on a firm’s mea-
surement of its assets and liabilities. A consistent application of the principles that define assets and liabilities
implies that associated elements of income and expenses are recognized in the income statement in the same
time period – a process that is also referred to as matching of income and expenses. For example, after a firm
has sold and delivered goods to a customer, an increase in the asset “trade receivables” combined with a simul-
taneous decrease in the asset “inventories” lead to the recognition of associated income and expense in the
same time period.
Remeasurements of assets or liabilities may also result in the recognition of income or expense items that
are not related to the firm’s current economic activities. For instance, when a firm holds inventories that have
suddenly become obsolete, writing down the value of such assets will cause the recognition of an expense item
that is unrelated to the firm’s current economic transactions. In sum, expenses are (a) costs directly associated
with revenues recognized in the same period (such as the cost of inventory sold), or (b) costs associated with
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Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
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