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Uncertainty Course Outline

This 3-sentence summary provides the key details about the course outline: The course teaches users how to model uncertainty in 3D geocellular reservoir models using Petrel, focusing on exploring a range of uncertainties around a base case model through efficient workflows and linking with spreadsheet modeling using Crystal Ball or @RISK; over 3 days it covers descriptive statistics, decision making, modeling structural, fluid contact and facies uncertainties in Petrel, and allows customizing uncertainty workflows; experience with Petrel and basic reservoir modeling is required, but the course is non-mathematical and focuses on practical applications.

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246 views3 pages

Uncertainty Course Outline

This 3-sentence summary provides the key details about the course outline: The course teaches users how to model uncertainty in 3D geocellular reservoir models using Petrel, focusing on exploring a range of uncertainties around a base case model through efficient workflows and linking with spreadsheet modeling using Crystal Ball or @RISK; over 3 days it covers descriptive statistics, decision making, modeling structural, fluid contact and facies uncertainties in Petrel, and allows customizing uncertainty workflows; experience with Petrel and basic reservoir modeling is required, but the course is non-mathematical and focuses on practical applications.

Uploaded by

shamshad_me
Copyright
© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

[Link] info@reservoirteam.

com

Course Outline

Uncertainty in 3D Geocellular Models


Abtract Schlumbergers Petrel is now the most widely used system for making 3D geocellular models. Its relative ease of use has ensured a wide and popular uptake. This ease of use, however, comes at a price. A less experienced user can create a single deterministic model (or a set of models based on narrow uncertainties) which matches input data and by all appearances seems to be sound. When put forward for simulation and field development planning, results based on models with an unrealistic small uncertainty envelope are often disappointing. Ideally Petrel (3D geocellular modeling) should be approached as a tool to exhaustively explore uncertainty in an efficient manner. Used in conjunction with spreadsheet modeling, this course shows how to use the uncertainty tools in Petrel to develop workflows to model a base case and provide sensitivities and uncertainties around that base case and report the results. The course also explains some basic theory behind risk analysis, scenarios trees and decision making. Course Aims By the end of the course the user should have a better understanding of the basic principals behind risk analysis, scenario trees and decision making as it is applied to geo-modelling. The user should be in a position to approach a new field modeling project from a much broader perspective and seek to avoid producing single deterministic (narrow uncertainty range) models. The user will learn to test all assumptions and explore the data and its distributions. The user will gain familiarity with the Petrel uncertainly tools and learn how to use the workflow editor to create turnkey uncertainty and sensitivity scenarios.

Page 1. Course- Uncertainty in 3D geocellular models

[Link] info@[Link]

Background Requirements This course is not an introductory Petrel course. It is expected that the users have a basic knowledge of Petrel and can build a simple 3D grid, scale well properties, populate the grid with properties and report volumes. In our experience, it is not practical to run many of the Monte Carlo processes in Petrel. Hence, the course also uses MS Excel with the Crystal Ball add-on in conjunction with Petrel. If used with prudence, this hybrid Petrel-spreadsheet approach can provide much insight in more a timely fashion. Apart from basic statistics, the course is non mathematical and focuses on application and results.

Page 2. Course- Uncertainty in 3D geocellular models

Detailed course outline


Day 1 Review of descriptive statistics, probability distributions and their applications. Introduction to Uncertainty and Decision Making Tornado Plots Monte Carlo Simulation and the Latin Hypercube Crystal Ball (or @RISK) Features: Inputs, Outputs, Settings, Simulation, Reports Quicklook volumetric uncertainty analysis in Excel

Day 2 Introduction to the (fictitious) Ember Field Petrel Uncertainty Workflow Manager Overview Petrel General Workflow Manager Overview Ember Field - Structural uncertainty modeling in Petrel Ember Field Ranking and analysis of structural uncertainty results Ember Field Fluid contact uncertainty modeling in Petrel Ember Field Facies modeling uncertainty modeling in Petrel Customising Workflows

Day 3 5 Can be tailored as required. Review of delegates models in an informal, hands-on uncertainty workshop format.

Course instructors Simon McGuire Joost Herweijer

Page 3. Course- Uncertainty in 3D geocellular models

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