EXERCISES: PROBABILISTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING

A Forestry Technician must review 3 tasks: Pruning, Thinning, and Harvesting, and has 4 days available.
According to the number of days I dedicate to each task, they will have a probability of
to fail, and with it to fail the whole task, which may lead to termination. For this reason, said
The technician wants to minimize the probability of being fired by minimizing the probability of
that all 3 tasks fail at the same time.
Dedication asks Pruning Raleo Harvest

0 day 0.50 0.60 0.40

1 day 0.42 0.51 0.35

2 days 0.36 0.41 0.21

3 days 0.25 0.36 0.18

A day not assigned to a task has no associated value. At most, 3 days can be assigned to
the same task.

A student has 4 days to prepare for 3 exams and the probability of failing each
The subject changes according to the dedication of days, and this is indicated in the following table:

Dedicated Days Exam Mathematics Physics Biology

0 0.50 0.60 0.40

1 0.42 0.51 0.35

2 0.36 0.41 0.21

3 0.25 0.36 0.18

According to regulations, if you fail the three exams, you must leave. Therefore, what the student wants is the
best assignment of the 4 days to minimize the probability of failing the three exams
same time.
A non-assigned study day has an associated value on the horizon of 0.50 and at most can be left free.
assign 2 days. To one of the exams, you can assign a maximum of 3 days.

3. A raffle urn contains 5 balls, 4 green and one red. A candidate from the audience wins 160 um for
participate and the host explains that you can keep the money and withdraw from the game or participate in
the draw and choosing a ball from the urn. If accepted, the participant loses the money they have already won if they draw the ball
red, or win 50% more on the value of what they already have if it comes out green. In the latter case, the participant
will decide again whether to desist or continue under the same conditions. The ball that has already been drawn does not
replies
This process can be repeated several times. Represent the candidate problem diagram and
determine the best political decision for him at every moment he needs to make a decision.

4. A research project on a certain engineering problem has 3 teams of researchers who

They seek to solve the problem from 3 different points of view. It is estimated that under the circumstances
The current probabilities that teams 1, 2, and 3 will fail are: 0.40, 0.60, and 0.80 respectively. The

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 The objective is to minimize the probability of failure of the 3 teams, and for this reason, 2 will be assigned to the project.
new high-level scientists.

According to the team assignment, the probability of failure changes as indicated in the table
next:

Número de científicos asignados Probabilidad de fracaso de los equipos

1 2 3
0 0.40 0.60 0.80
1 0.20 0.40 0.50
2 0.15 0.20 0.30
How should the 2 new scientists be assigned to minimize the chances that the 3 teams
did they fail?

5. A government space project is conducting research on a certain engineering problem that

must be resolved before humans can safely travel to Mars. For the moment, four
Research teams are trying to solve the problem from three different perspectives. It is estimated
that, under the current circumstances, the probability that the respective teams - let's call them 1, 2, 3, and 4 -
The fractions are 0.60, 0.40, 0.80, and 0.70 respectively. Thus, the current probability that the four
the failure of teams is (0.6*0.4*0.8*0.7) = 0.1344. As the goal is to minimize the probability of failure,
Two more high-level scientists will be assigned to the project.
The following table gives the estimated probability that the respective teams will fail if they are assigned 0,
1 or 2 scientists to collaborate with them. Only whole numbers of scientists are considered since
Each of them must dedicate their full attention to their team
How would you assign additional scientists in order to minimize the probability that the
do four teams fail?
PROBABILITY OF FAILURE
TEAM
1 2 3 4
0 0.60 0.40 0.80 0.7
1 0.45 0.25 0.50 0.45
2 0.30 0.15 0.25 0.20

6. A bettor wants to know how they should distribute their bet in a certain game to win $
100,000 making three bets. The game consists of betting any number of units of $20,000.
And it is possible to win or lose what was bet. He believes that the probability of winning is 40% and the probability of losing is
of 60%. If the game starts with $40,000.
How should you bet your money to obtain a $100,000 profit, maximizing the probability?
to meet their objective.

7. A person has $2,000 available to invest and is presented with two opportunities, A and B. Both
opportunities are risky, the following table shows the possible annual returns for each $
1,000 invested and the probabilities of obtaining these returns.
RENDIMIENTO PROBABILIDAD
A 3.000 0.4
-1.000 0.6
B 2.000 0.2
1,000 0.8

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 Determine an investment strategy for the next four years that maximizes the amounts.
expected finals, if there is the restriction that each year units must be invested in multiples of $1,000.

8. A coffee-producing country wants to establish an export policy for the current year and the coming years.
future ones, based on the following data: export contracts are formed at the beginning of each year,
in whole numbers of millions of tons, if the buyer pays the distributor upon completion
export at the end of the same year. The selling price is set at $140,000 for every million of
ton that is exported. The excess product can be stored, as it is not perishable. If the country does not
has a sufficient stock of coffee for export by the end of the year, will need to buy the shortfall of
another country product at an opportunity cost of $185,000 per million tons (not necessarily in
a whole number of millions of tons), to honor the terms of the export contract,
operating in this case, with a detriment.

Domestic coffee production depends on climatic conditions and future stimuli, at risk.
according to the probability distribution of the following table:

Production in millions of tons

Year
1.5 2 2.5 3
0 0.30 0.25 0.25 0.20
1 0.25 0.30 0.30 0.15
2 0.20 0.30 0.35 0.15
3 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.25

9. A clothing sales office can be found each year in the following states: low sales, sales
media, high sales and can switch from one state. The office can choose each year whether to invest in advertising or
no, investment that tends to increase the likelihood of achieving a better sales state. This
investment represents a cash outflow of $1000, if it were to take place. The following table presents the
possible transitions between various states:

States and transition probabilities

State Without investing in advertising Investing in advertising
Previous year Under Medium High Under Half High
Low 0.70 0.20 0.10 0.30 0.55 0.15
Medium 0.20 0.60 0.20 0.15 0.30 0.55
High 0.10 0.30 0.60 0.00 0.20 0.80
Consider as a starting point, at the beginning of the first year, that the sales office is located in a
Average sales statement. The annual profit according to the statement is presented below:
Benefit Statement
Under 600
Half1300
High 1900

A policy for investments in advertising is to be established over the next 3 years. At the end
this period, the office will be sold and the price will depend on its condition: $2000 if it is
low; $2500 if it is medium and $3000 if it is high. The minimum interest rate is 15% per year. Formulate the policy.
on advertising investments.
An investor has $3,000,000 to invest in a profitable business opportunity for 1 year.
The opportunity is risky in the sense that the utility can be: 40%, 10%, and -60% with
probabilities of 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively (estimated based on past results).

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 Determine an investment strategy for the next three years that allows you to obtain a profit $
2,500,000 maximizing the probability of achieving the objective, the investments must be made in
whole units of $1,000,000.

A computer company has the capacity to produce up to four computers each week.
The demand for computers is variable and behaves according to the following distribution
probabilities.

DEMAND
WEEK 0 1 2 3 4 5
1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.1
3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Production costs are a function of the number of computers manufactured.
continuation: (in thousands of US$).

UNITS PRODUCED
0 1 2 3 4
COSTS0 18 30 42 56

Computers can be delivered to customers at the end of the manufacturing week or can
almacenarse para entrega futura, con un costo semanal de US$ 4.000 por computadora. Las órdenes que no
They are delivered during the week in which they are made, they have a cost of US$ 2,000 per computer and must
cover as soon as possible during the next week.

How many computers should the company produce in the next three weeks to minimize costs?
total expected and cover the demand, if the current inventory is zero?

12. A research center has 3 groups working on the same problem, but through different paths.
different.

There are 4 scientists available to assign to one of these work teams and according to the assignment of
Scientists to the groups the probabilities of group failure change and are indicated in the following table:

Assignment Group 1 2 3

0 0.5 0.4 0.6

1 0.3 0.3 0.3

2 0.1 0.2 0.3

3 0.1 0.05 0.05

Como política de decisión se quiere buscar una solución que minimice el fracaso conjunto de los 3 equipos
for work because it is important to have at least 1 solution to the problem.

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A scientist not assigned to the working groups has no value at the horizon (Value 1 for the F.O).
B) If it were desired that the assignment of the 4 scientists be made in such a way that the sum of the
the squares of the probabilities of failure should be minimal, what is the optimal allocation?
C) And, if it is desired that the assignment of the 4 scientists is done in a way that minimizes the sum of the
failure probabilities weighing by 10, by 5, and by 2 the failure probabilities of the
teams 1, 2, and 3 respectively, what is the optimal assignment?