Impact Prediction and Evaluation Methods
Impact Prediction and Evaluation Methods
Chapter 3
Impact Prediction, Evaluation and Mitigation 10 hrs.
• Methods of impact prediction
• Impact evaluation techniques
• Types of mitigation measures
• Implementation of environmental protection measures
Impact prediction should focus on the following Impact prediction should focus on the following
considerations:………………………. considerations:………………………..
2. Extant of impact: [Link] of impact:
• The spatial extent or the zone of influence of the • Environmental impacts have a temporal dimension that
impact should always be determined. needs to be considered in an EIA.
• An impact can be site-specific or limited to the • Impacts arising at different phases of the project cycle
need to be considered.
project area (SP) ;
• An impact that generally lasts for less than or only three
• a locally-occurring impact within the watershed of classified as short term (St)
the proposed project (L); • An impact which continue for 3-20 year is defined as
• a regional impact that may extend beyond the medium-term (Mt)
watershed (R); • Impacts that last beyond 20 years are considered as
• or a national impact affecting resources on a long-term (Lt).
national scale (N) • The types of impacts produced during the construction
phase are generally short-term.
• Different types of methods are used for impact prediction • In general, the methods are divided into the following
1. Extrapolative (mostly) and six types
• A simple model termed a 'mass balance model' is • Mathematical models: Use of mathematical
equations to show cause-effect relationship
usually applied for indicating the input from one between variables. Lets say for concentration
compartment resulting in the output for another. of NPK into a river due to the proposed activity:
C1= (Q0C0-QeCe )/( Q0 + Qe )
• If the inputs are water, food, and chemicals in one C1= Downstream concentration, C0= upstream
Concentration, Ce= effluent concentration, Q0=
compartment, the outputs would be water and wastes upstream flow, Qe= Effluent flow
flowing out into another compartment. • Gaussian Plume Model for air pollution
• Mass balance models are primarily useful for predicting
impacts from industries or manufacturing sections.
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Meteorological
Model
Emission Chemical
Model Model
Temporal and spatial emission rates
Topography
Chemical Transformation
Pollutant Transport Δh
Equilibrium between Particles and gases
Vertical Mixing
Source
Receptor
Dispersion
Model
Model
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Δh
Assumptions
Q y 2 z H 2 z H 2
C x, y , z exp 2 exp exp
2 y z u 2 y 2 z
2
2 2z
Cx,y,z,H
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g/s
u
Fig 7.12
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Fig 7.13
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Dispersion Coefficients: Vertical Q3. A power plant burns coal at the rate of 7.5 tones per hour
and discharges the flue gases through a stack having
effective height of 95m. The coal has a sulfur content of
4.6%. The wind velocity at the top of stack is 8.0m/s. The
atmospheric condition moderately to slightly unstable.
Find the maximum ground concentration and distance
from sources.
Determine ground surface concentration of pollutants at a
distance 2000m downwind
a) at centerline of plume (C2000,0,0,95 ) =?
b) at a Cross wind distance of 400m on either side of the
center line (C2000,400,0,95 ) =?
c) Compute the concentration of pollutant at x= 1000m,
Fig 7.13 y=100m and z= 20m (C1000,100,20,95 )=?
d) If the value of C2000,y,0,H = 1.2*10-4 g/m3 &
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Cx,0,0,H = 4.095*10-4 g/m3, what is the value of y?
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Answer of Ques.2
Power 915 MW= 3294 x 103 MJ/h
Coal required= (3294 x 103 x 0.725)/ (0.4 x30)
= 199 t/h
Sulphur at 1% = 1/100 x 199= 1.99 t/h
Sulphur dioxide SO2 = S + O2
Atomic mass = 32 32
Sulphur dioxide = 1.99 t/h +1.99 t/h = 3.98 t/h
Emission rate of SO2= 1.1 kg/s =Ans
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EI Characteristics:
Pollutants to be inventoried Spatial Resolution
• Establishes the detail of the geographic location of
Inventories can be developed the sources
for emissions of: • Determined based on the purpose of the inventory
•PM10 • National-level analysis => Single national
•PM2.5 estimate for each major source type and
•SO2 pollutant
•NO2
•CO
• Modeling inventory => Source specific
•O3
emissions allocated based on “grids” (e.g., 1 to
•Pb 50 km2)
•VOC’s Photo: Columbus State University
•Air Toxics
•Greenhouse gases
RANGE OF PRESSURE
Sound Pollution Range of RMS pressure fluctuations that a human ear can detect
extends from
P0 = 0.00002 N/m2 (threshold of hearing)
to
Sound Intensity 20 N/m2 (sensation of pain)
The large range of associated pressure is one of the reasons we need alternate
scale
P0 = 2*10-5 N/m2
I I
LT 10 Log T12 L1 10 Log 112
10 10
L1 L2
L3
LT 10 Log 10 10 10 10 10 10 ...
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COMBINATIONS OF SOURCES
If intensity levels of each of the N sources is same,
L1=60dB, L2=65.5dB
LT=66.5dB
L1=80dB, L2=82dB
LT=84dB
1 100 7 70
Leq 10 Log10 10 10 1010 91dB
55
8 8
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Where,
Dt = DO deficit at any time t. 1.5
L0 = Ultimate BOD
K= BOD reaction constant (base 10) at Tmix
R = Re-Oxygenation constant (base 10) Tmix
D0=Initial DO deficit (mg/l) =Saturated DO- DOmix
Where, V= velocity in m/s
H= depth in m and
ŋ= bed activity coefficient (0.1)
1.016
Where,
Dc= Critical DO deficit
tc = Time required to reach critical point
Xc = tc * velocity of stream ’v’
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2. Statistical Models
3. Geography Information System
• Statistical techniques such as regression or (GIS)
component analysis are sometimes used to indicate
the relationship between the data and test
hypothesis,
- Satellite images, physical maps and aerial
• For example, in predicting flood frequencies.
photographs provide information on existing
resources.
- Prediction of impacts of the development
project can be made by analyzing the effect of
project activities on the resources present in the
location by using GIS techniques.
5. Physical Models
• These models are closely linked to field and laboratory
6. Expert Judgement
experiments making critical engineering and other decisions
on site. • Expert judgment refers to an event occurring due to
certain activities in a particular location that may be
• Basically, a model of an area likely to be impacted is
analogous to other locations of similar conditions with
constructed but on a smaller scale. For example, it could
similar activities.
show the physical parameters of a Run-of-river hydropower
project. • The experience of one place could very well be
utilized for similar places elsewhere where the
• Both natural features such as topography and socio-cultural
environmental impacts are unknown.
features such as villages, schools and bridges are included.
In the case of rivers, the effect of impoundment on flow can • For example, many irrigation development projects
be calculated. produce effects of salinisation.
• Tunnel and pipeline routes as well as locations of power • Decisions on anticipated impact based on past
houses and labor camps can be shown. experience are the result of conceptual models often
referred to as 'expert judgments'.
• The deposition of waste can also be demonstrated on the
model, to make decisions about how it is to be handled.
Comparison of alternatives
• A factory uses 1.5 ML of fuel oil per month. The • The following formal and informal approaches can be
exhaust gases from the factory contains the used to carry out such a comparative analysis:
following quantities of pollutants ML per year : a) Qualitative approach: Descriptive information on
I. Particulate matter = 4 t/year each alternative is presented,
II. SO2 = 20 t/yr b) Quantitative approach: Quantitative information on
each alternative is presented,
Determine the safe height of chimney required for the
safe dispersion of the pollutants c) Ranking, rating or scaling approach: The
qualitative and quantitative information on each is
summarized through assigning of rank, rating or scale
values usually based on the characteristics of impacts
(severity, reversibility, etc.),
d) Weighting approach: The importance in weight of
each alternative is presented in view of the importance
of the decisive factors, and
0
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Impact Evaluation
Criteria for evaluating impacts
•Impact evaluation: Impact identification and
prediction is followed by impact evaluation For adverse Impacts:
which assists in evaluating the significance of • Loss of rare, endangered or endemic species
• Habitat destruction and fragmentation
an impact so that priorities can be identified by
• Reduction in biological diversity, disruption in
the decision makers and stakeholders. ecological structure or functions
•We can make use of questions such as will there • Loss of critical or productive habitats
be an impact on the population of tiger species? • Loss or alterations in land-use and natural
Is the impact significant? If yes, is it likely to landscapes
occur? How often will it occur? • Displacement of families
• Toxicity impact on human health
•Note: Many EIA guidelines include definitions • Reduction in the capacity of renewable resources
or criteria of significant impacts. to meet the needs of local people.
Introduction Objectives
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The elements of mitigation are organized into a Key principles for the application of mitigation
hierarchy of actions: consistent with the above framework include the
• first, avoid adverse impacts as far as possible by use following:
of preventive measures; • give preference to avoid and prevent measures;
• second, minimize or reduce adverse impacts to “as • consider feasible alternatives to the proposal and identify the
low as practicable levels”; and best practicable environmental option;
• identify customised measures to minimise each of the main
• third, remedy or compensate for adverse residual impacts predicted;
impacts, which are unavoidable and cannot be reduced • ensure they are appropriate, environmentally sound and cost-
further. effective; and
• use compensation or remedial measures as a last resort.
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1. Step One: Impact avoidance. This step is most 2. Step Two: Impact minimization.
effective when applied at an early stage of project This step is usually taken during impact
planning. It can be achieved by: identification and prediction to limit or reduce the
not undertaking certain projects or elements that degree, extent, magnitude, or duration of adverse
could result in adverse impacts; impacts. It can be achieved by:
avoiding areas that are environmentally • scaling down or relocating the proposal;
sensitive; and • redesigning elements of the project; and
putting in place preventative measures to stop • taking supplementary measures to manage the
adverse impacts from occurring, for example, impacts
release of water from a reservoir to maintain a
fisheries regime.
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• Implementation of Mitigation measures: • The cost is usually about 10 % of the total cost of the
• should be cost effective and locally applicable and can be project (although it depends on the nature, size,
proposed during different stages of project implementation. location etc. of the project).
• Pre‐construction (such as compensation for land acquisition), • The responsibility is with proponents to internalise the
• Construction (such as planning and designing activities), full environmental costs of development proposals.
• Operational stages (such as maintenance activities).
• In addition, many proponents have found that good
design and impact management can result in
significant savings.
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