20- 1
Chapter
Twenty
McGraw-
2005 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All
20- 2
Chapter Twenty
An Introduction to Decision
GOALS
Theory
When you have completed this chapter, you
will
ONE be able to:
Define the terms: state of nature, event, act, and payoff.
TWO
Organize information into a payoff table or a decision tree.
THREE
Find the expected payoff of a decision alternative.
FOUR
Compute opportunity loss and expected opportunity loss.
FIVE
Assess the expected value of information.
Goals
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Classical Statistics
focuses on estimating a
parameter, such as the
population mean,
constructing confidence
intervals, or hypothesis
testing.
Statistical
Decision Theory
(Bayesian statistics) is
concerned with
determining which
decision, from a set of
possible decisions, is
optimal.
Statistical Decision Theory
Three components to decision-making situation
20- 4
The available choices
(alternatives or
acts)
The payoffs - needed
for each combination of
decision alternative and
state of nature
The states of nature,
which are not under the
control of the decision
maker - uncontrollable
future events
Elements of a Decision
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A Payoff Table is a listing of all possible
combinations of decision alternatives and states
of nature.
The Expected Payoff or the
Expected Monetary Value (EMV)
is the expected value for each decision.
Payoff Table and Expected Payoff
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Let
Ai be the ith decision alternative.
Let
P(Sj) be the probability of the jth state of
nature.
Let V(Ai, Sj) be the value of the payoff for the
combination of decision alternative Ai and state
of nature Sj.
Let
EMV (Ai) be the expected monetary value
for the decision alternative Ai.
EMV ( Ai ) [ P( S j ) V ( Ai , S j )]
Calculating the EMV
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The following payoff table (profit) was developed.
Let P(S1)=.5, P(S2)=.3, and P(S3)=.2. Compute the
EMV for each of the alternatives.
Example 1
EMV (A1)=(.5)(50)+(.3)(70)+(.2)(100)=66
EMV (A2) =(.5)(40)+(.3)(80)+(.2)(90)=62
EMV (A3) =(.5)(90)+(.3)(70)+(.2)(60)=78
Choose alternative
A3 because it gives
the largest expected
monetary value or
expected payoff.
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What
decision
would you
recommend
?
Example 1 continued
20- 9
Opportunity Loss or Regret
is the loss because the exact
state of nature is not known at
the time a decision is made.
The opportunity loss is computed by
taking the difference between the
optimal decision for each state of nature
and the other decision alternatives.
Opportunity Loss
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OPPORTUNITY LOSS TABLE
Example 1 continued
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Let
Ai be the ith decision alternative.
Let
P(Sj) be the probability of the jth state of nature.
Let
R(Ai,Sj) be the value of the regret for the
combination of decision alternative Ai and state of
nature Sj.
Let
EOL(Ai) be the expected opportunity loss for the
decision alternative Ai.
EOL(Ai) = [P(Sj)*R(Ai,Sj)]
Expected Opportunity Loss
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EOL(A1) =(.5)(40)+(.3)(10)+(.2)(0)=23
EOL(A2) =(.5)(50)+(.3)(0)+(.2)(10)=27
EOL(A3) =(.5)(0)+(.3)(10)+(.2)(40)=11
Choose alternative A3 since it gives
the smallest expected opportunity
loss.
Note: This decision is the same
when using the highest expected
payoff. These two approaches will
always lead to the same decision.
What decision
would you make
based on the
lowest expected
opportunity
loss?
Example 1 continued
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Maximin Strategy
maximizes the minimum
gain (pessimistic strategy)
Maximax Strategy
maximizes the maximum
gain (optimistic strategy)
Minimax Regret Strategy
- minimizes the maximum
opportunity loss
Maximin, Maximax, and
Minimax Regret Strategies
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Under the maximin
strategy, what profit
are you expecting?
From the initial
payoff table, the
profit will be $60.
Under the minimax regret
strategy, what will be your
strategy? From the
opportunity loss table, the
strategy would be to select A1
or A3 since these minimize the
maximum regret.
Under the maximax
strategy, what profit are
you expecting? From the
initial payoff table, the
profit will be $100.
EXAMPLE 1 continued
What is the worth of information known
in advance before a strategy
is employed?
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Expected Value of Perfect Information
(EVPI) is the difference between the expected
payoff if the state of nature were known and the
optimal decision under the conditions of uncertainty.
From Example 1
EVPI = [(.5)(90)+(.3)(80)+(.2)(100)] - 78 = 11
Value of Perfect Information
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Sensitivity
Analysis
examines the effects
of various
probabilities for the
states of nature on
the expected values
for the decision
alternatives.
Decision Trees
are useful for
structuring the various
alternatives. They
present a picture of the
various courses of
action and the possible
states of nature.
Sensitivity Analysis and
Decision Trees
$ 2 ,4 0 0
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$ 1 ,8 4 0
B u y R im
$ 1 ,7 6 0
$ 1 ,0 0 0
$ 2 ,2 0 0
$ 1 ,1 0 0
$ 1 ,6 0 0
$ 1 ,9 0 0
$ 1 ,1 5 0
Buy Texas payoff of
$1600 = .40($1,150) + .60($1,900)
Example 2
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E x p e c te d V a lu e u n d e r C o n d itio n s o f C e r ta in ty
$ 2 ,4 0 0
$ 2 ,4 0 0
B u y R im
$ 2 ,2 0 0
$ 1 ,9 0 0
$ 1 ,0 0 0
B u y R im
$ 1 ,1 0 0
$ 1 ,1 5 0
$ 1 ,1 5 0
Example 2 continued
