COLLEGE OF MEDICINE AND HEALTH SCIENCES
DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC HEALTH
POPULATION AND DEMOGRAPHY
MEKONNEN M.(BSC, MPH)
Introduction to Demography
Objectives of this Lecture:
2 Differentiate between Demographic Methods and
Population Studies
Identify the different sources of demographic data
Describe the advantages and disadvantages of each dat
sources
Define and calculate measures of fertility, mortality and
migration based on demographic data
12/5/2018
Demography
3 Demography originates from 2 Greek words (demos=peop
graphein=to draw)
Demography is the scientific study of human populations primar
with respect to their;
size,
distribution,
Structure/composition, and
their change (UN Multilingual demographic dictionary)
Dbre Markos University 12/5/2018
Demography …
4
Demography—The study of a population in its static and dynamic
aspects.
Static aspects include characteristics at a point in time such as
composition by:
Age
Sex
Race
Marital status
Economic characteristics
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Demography ….
5
Dynamic aspects are the movement of population
Fertility
Mortality
Nuptiality/marriage
Migration
Growth
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Demography …
6
Demographic analysis - is the study of components of
variation and change in demographic variables and the
relationships between them;
This is also called formal demography or demographic
methods or technical demography.
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Demography …
7
Population Studies- is the study of the relationships between
demographic variables and other variables such as social(e.g
education& housing) and economic variables(e.g occupation
&income).
Population studies is the broader aspect of demography. It combines
both formal and substantive demography. Population studies =
Technical demography + Substantive demography
Population studies is at least as broad as interest in the determinants
and consequences of populationDebre Markos University
trends. 12/5/2018
Demography …
8
Demography focuses its attention on three readily available human
phenomena:
o Changes in population size (growth or decline),
o Population composition and
o Population distribution
It deals with major “demographic processes” namely fertility,
mortality and migration.
o These processes are continually at work within a population
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
determining its size, composition and distribution.
9
What are Demographic Data?
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Purposes of Demographic Data
10
Provide factual basis for decisions on matters of public
policy and action concerning social and economic affairs.
Indicate present and future requirements of the population in
terms of the types and extent of social needs of the society
such as health, education and employment.
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Purpose…
11
Generally; the information obtained from these sources
is used for
healthplanning,
programming and
evaluation of health services
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Sources of demographic data
12
Conventional sources:
o Censuses
o Civil registration/vital registration
o Surveys
Non-conventional sources
o Population registers: records of the movement of people
o Administrative records: like school enrollments, health
service statistics, etc.
o Parish registers: registration of baptism and burials in
religious holy places, etc
12/5/2018
Census
13
Census—the total process of collecting, compiling,
analyzing and publishing or otherwise disseminating
demographic, economic and social data pertaining to all
persons in a country or in a well-delineated part of a
country at a specified time (UN).
It is the enumeration or complete population count at a
point in time within a specified geographical area.
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Census…
14
Census data are necessary for
accurate description of population’s health status and
are principal source of denominator for rates of disease
& death.
It provides information on:
Size and composition of a population
The trends anticipated in the future
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Essential Characteristics of census
15
Universality within a defined territory
Defined periodicity
Simultaneity (data is collected at a specified time from the
entire population)
Individual enumeration
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Census cont…
16
Advantages of census
• Provides frame for later sample surveys
• Provides population denominators
• different health indices could be calculated like;
Crude birth rate,
crude death rate,
age specific mortality rate and
sex specific mortality rate are some of the examples of
the indicators that could be calculated
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Census…
17
Disadvantages of census
Size limits content and quality control efforts
Cost limits frequency(conducting nationwide census
is very expensive
it generates a large amount of data which takes a
very long time to compile and analyze.
It is carried in intervals of many years. Therefore it
can’t assess yearly changes
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Census…
18
In Ethiopia census was conducted four times , i.e., in
1984 , 1994 (G.C).
Data was collected on:
Age, sex and size of the population
Mortality, fertility
Language, ethnicity
Housing Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Contents of Census
19
A census contains:
Demographic data (at least age and sex)
Economic data (e.g., occupation and income)
Social (e.g., education and housing)
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Types of census
20
A census can be:
1). De jure: Legal or customary attachment to an area (you
are registered where you usually reside).
Excludes temporary visits
Advantages
• Gives permanent picture of a community;
• Provides more realistic and useful statistics
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Types…
21
Disadvantages
• Omission from the count (zig bet binor)
• Missing temporary residents
• Counting twice/double counting
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Types…
22
2). De facto: Physical residence (you are registered where
you are currently staying/residing at the time of the census)
Excludes those temporarily away
Advantages
• Less chance for omission
• No double counting
Disadvantages
• Difficulty to obtain information regarding persons in
transit
• Provision of incorrect picture of University
Debre Markos the population
12/5/2018
Steps in Conducting Census
23
The major steps of a census include:
Planning and preparation
Collecting data
Compilation and analysis
Evaluation
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Data Collection Procedures
24
Establish administrative tree
Develop questionnaire(s)
Cartography
Define enumeration areas
Pretest enumeration processes
Design data processing system
Enumeration
Publications
Dissemination of results
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Civil Registration
25
It is the continuous registration of vital events such as
birth,
death,
marriage and
divorce as they happen.
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Civil Registration…
26
Data collection procedures:
• Active: enumerators visit every household
• Passive: informants report to registrars
*Informants can be health facilities or family members
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Civil Registration…
27
Purpose
Primarily administrative, but has legal and statistical use
To collect data on the vital events happening in a population
(generally concerned with live births, deaths, marriages and
divorces)
Help to understand demographic characteristics of different
populations at different points in time
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Civil Registration…
28
Essential characteristics
Universality
Continuity
Contents include:
Live birth
Death
Divorce
Marriage
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Live birth registration
29
Live birth—Complete expulsion or extraction from its
mother of a product of conception, irrespective of the
duration of pregnancy, which after such separation, breathes
or shows any other evidence of life such as beating of the
heart, pulsation of the umbilical cord or definite movement
of voluntary muscles, whether or not the umbilical cord has
been cut or the placenta is attached; each product of such a
birth is considered live born.
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Live birth …
30
All live-born infants should be registered and counted
irrespective of gestational age or whether alive or dead at
time of registration and if they die at any time following
birth they should also be registered and counted as deaths
(WHO).
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Live Birth Registration
(UN minimum data recommendation)
Data on Event Data on infant:
• Date of occurrence
• Sex
• Legitimacy status
• Date of registration
• Weight at birth
• Place of occurrence Data on mother:
• Type of birth/delivery • Age or date of birth
• Attendance at birth • Number of previous
children born alive
12/5/2018 • Date of marriage
31 or
Live Birth Registration
32
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Live Birth Registration
33
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Live Birth Registration
34
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Death Registration
35
Death-permanent disappearance of all evidence of life at any
time after live birth has taken place (post-natal cessation of
vital functions without capability of resuscitation).
This definition excludes fetal deaths.
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Death Registration
(UN minimum data recommendation)
Data on event Data on deceased:
• Date of occurrence o Age or date of birth
• Date of registration o Sex
• Place of occurrence
• Cause of death o Marital status
• Certifier o Occupation
o Place of usual
residence
12/5/2018 36
Problems with Cause of Death Data
37
Knowledge of certifier
Certifier may never see deceased
Heart versus brain function loss in the definition of death
Multiple and contributory causes of death
Medical classification changes over time by WHO and ICD-
now at version 10
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Marriage Registration
38
Marriage—an act, ceremony or process by which the legal
relationship of husband and wife is constituted.
The legality of the union may be established by civil,
religious or other means as recognized by the laws of each
country
There are civil, religious and traditional marriages in
Ethiopia
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Marriage Registration
(UN Recommended Minimum data)
Data on event Data on bride and groom
Date of occurrence Age or date of birth
Date of registration
Previous marital status
Place of occurrence
Type of marriage—
civil, religious, Place of usual residence
customary
12/5/2018 39
Divorce Registration
40
Divorce—final legal dissolution of a marriage, that is,
separation of husband and wife which confers on the
parties the right to remarriage under civil, religious and/or
other provisions, according to the laws of each country.
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Civil Registration…
41
Advantages
Continuous monitoring of vital rates
May provide both numerator and denominator for some
rates (e.g., infant mortality rate)
Small area data available
Base for testing the accuracy of censuses and surveys
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Civil Registration…
42
Disadvantages
Uncertain coverage: difficult to ensure registration of all
the events
Limited background information
Time reference often inconsistent with denominator
definition
Information may come from third party
Easily disrupted by political or economic events
Literacy or numeracy
Costly
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Sample Surveys
43
It is carried out in a scientifically selected area which covers
only a section or portion (sample) of the population under
consideration.
Purpose
• Obtain information from a sample representative of some
population
• Limited in scope but gives detailed insight on a specific
issue
Content
• Varies widely e.g., fertility, child mortality, migration,, etc
• E.g. DHS,Welfare Monitoring Survey, etc
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Essential Characteristics
44
Representative sample of some population
Smaller size than census allows collection of more in-depth
information on specific issues that can then be generalized
12/5/2018
Types of Surveys
45
Single-round retrospective/Cross-sectional
Census-type household surveys
Focused, (e.g., Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (CPS))
Birth/Maternity History (World Fertility Survey (WFS),
Demographic and Health Survey (DHS))
Health monitoring
12/5/2018
Types of Surveys
46
Multi-round follow-up (prospective). e.g. Demographic
Surveillance Systems (DSS) - BRHP (Butajira Rural Health
Program)
Baseline census
Periodic visits to record vital events
Periodic censuses (3-5 years) to update population
characteristics/Annual reconciliation
12/5/2018
Advantages of sample survey
47
Single-round retrospective
– can be quick
– relatively inexpensive
– flexible
– can include detailed data (maternity history in DHS)
– needs little continuity effort
Multi-round prospective
– some control on coverage and content errors e.g. if age is
missing in one round
– follow-up allows controlDebre
forMarkos
sampling
University distortion
12/5/2018
Disadvantages of sample survey
48
Single-round retrospective
– coverage and content errors
– misses certain types of events e.g. illegal abortion
Multi-round prospective
– slow
– needs continuity of effort over (extended) time
– high cost
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Tools of demographic Change
49
Absolute number
Rate,
Ratio and Probability
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Tools of demographic Change…
50
1. Absolute numbers
Simple count of affected individuals without stating
the size of a source population
Useful for public health planners for proper allocation
of health care resources
Can not be used for comparison
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Example: Hypothetical data in the frequency of hepatitis in two
cities:
51
For which city you will give priority of intervention ?
City A?
City B?
= unknown b/c no denominator/ source population
Ratios
52
Ratio is value obtained by dividing one quantity by another
It indicates the relative magnitude of a numerator and a
denominator
Ratios tend to be descriptive statistics
A proportion is a special type of ratio in which the
denominator includes the numerator
A percentage is a special type of proportion, whereby the
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Ratio: Examples
53
Sex ratio at birth (male births per 100 female births)
Child-woman ratio (number of children aged 0 to 4 years
divided by the number of women aged 15 to 49 years)
Dependency ratio (population aged under 15 or over 64
divided by the population Debre
aged 15 to 64 and multiplied by
Markos University 12/5/2018
Rate
54
It is measure of the frequency with which an event occurs
in a defined population during a given length of time.
It is a statement of the risk of developing a condition.
It indicates the change in some event that takes place in a
population over a period of time.
It is defined per unit of time.
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Rate …
55
Rate = Vital event X (K)
Population at risk
A rate comprises the following elements:
• Numerator: count of events that occur during a period
• Denominator: midpoint population, or person-years, or
other person-time units of exposure for the same period
as the numerator
• Time specification and
• Multiplier or constant, i.e., K (100, 1000, 10000, 100,000
etc)
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
A Rate is a ratio or a proportion in which the numerator is
Rate: Examples
56
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Probability
57
It indicates the likelihood that some event will (or will not)
occur to some group of exposed persons during the course
of some period of time
It expresses the chance that an event will occur during a
particular period to a person in a particular population at
risk at the beginning of a period
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Probability: Examples
58
Probability of dying between birth and age five
• Probability that a child will die between birth and exact
age five
Probability of surviving from age 20 to age 25
• Probability that a person of exact age 20 will survive to
exact age 25
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
59
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Population composition
60
It includes: Marital Status,
Age, Religion,
Sex, Language,
Race, Education,
Ethnicity, Economic Status
Nationality, Etc
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Age and sex
61
Age and sex are the most basic characteristics of a
population.
Every population has a different age and sex composition
the number and proportion of males and females in each
age group and
this structure can have considerable impact on the
population’s social and economic situation, both present
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
and future.
Sex
62
Importance
Variable is of prime importance
Separate data for males and females are important:
• In themselves
• For the analysis of other types of data
• For the evaluation of the completeness and accuracy of
population counts
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Sex …
63
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Sex …
64
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Age
65
Demographers 'definition of age: Completed age, i.e. age of
an individual at last birthday
Most important variable in demographic analyses
Data Collection on Age
Data on age may be secured by
• Asking a direct question on age
• Asking a question on date of birth, or month and year
of birth, or
• A combination of these
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Age-Reporting Errors
66
Centenarians
• Those close to 100 years tend to overestimate
their age
Understatement
• Women tend to understate their age
Overstatement
• Mothers tend to round up the age of their
children
Heaping/Digit preference
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Population Pyramid of Ethiopia: 2007
67
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Race and Ethnicity
68
Race, ethnicity, language group and national heritage are
often used for analyses of population groups.
These data may reveal much about a population’s origins
and are often used in the administration of government
programs.
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
Summary
69
Several characteristics are commonly used by
demographers to describe a population.
Education and economic participation are two
characteristics often used
These characteristics are often cross-tabulated by other
demographic and economic characteristics to measure
different aspects of sub-groups of the population
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
70
Thank You
Debre Markos University 12/5/2018
