PERT
PROJECT EVALUATION AND
REVIEW TECHNIQUE
PERT ANALYSIS:
Draw the network.
Analyze the paths through the network and find the
critical path.
The length of the critical path is the mean of the
project duration probability distribution which is
assumed to be normal.
The standard deviation of the project duration
probability distribution is computed by adding the
variances of the critical activities (all of the activities
that make up the critical path) and taking the square
root of that sum.
Normal Distribution of Project Time
t = (a + 4m + b)/6
Probability of
1 in 100 of Probability of
Probability
< a occurring v = [(b − a)/6]2 1 in 100 of > b
occurring
Activity
Time
Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
Time (a) Time (m) Time (b)
PERT EXAMPLE
Act Prec a m b
A - 4 6 8
a. Perform a PERT to
B - 1 4.5 5
determine the
C A 3 3 3
expected total
D A 4 5 6 duration of the
E A .5 1 1.5 project.
F B,C 3 4 5
b. By using
G B,C 1 1.5 5
uncertainty analysis,
H E,F 5 6 7 determine the
I E,F 2 5 8 probability that the
project will complete
J D,H 2.5 2.75 4.5
in 24 weeks.
K G,I 3 5 7
PERT in tabular form
Act a m b TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V
A 4 6 8
B 1 4.5 5
C 3 3 3
D 4 5 6
E .5 1 1.5
F 3 4 5
G 1 1.5 5
H 5 6 7
I 2 5 8
J 2.5 2.75 4.5
K 3 5 7
Expected Time
Act a m b TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V
A 4 6 8
B 1 4.5 5
C 3 3 3
D 4 5 6 𝑎 + 4𝑚 + 𝑏
te =
6
E .5 1 1.5
4 + 4(6) + 8
F 3 4 5 te =
6
G 1 1.5 5 te = 6
H 5 6 7
I 2 5 8
J 2.5 2.75 4.5
K 3 5 7
Expected Time
Act a m b TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V
A 4 6 8 6
B 1 4.5 5 4
C 3 3 3 3
D 4 5 6 5
E .5 1 1.5 1
F 3 4 5 4
G 1 1.5 5 2
H 5 6 7 6
I 2 5 8 5
J 2.5 2.75 4.5 3
K 3 5 7 5
Draw the Network
b D (5) e
a d g
c G (2) f
Add ES
11 19
b D (5) e
6 19
22 23
a d g
13 7
0 13 23
c G (2) f
9 18
18 11
4 9
Add ES
b D (5) e
6 19
a d g
0 13 23
c G (2) f
9 18
Add LF
12 15 6
b D (5) e
6 6 19 20
a d g
5 0 13 14
0 0 13 13 23 23
c G (2) f
9 9 18 18
9 16
Add LF
b D (5) e
6 6 19 20
a d g
0 0 13 13 23 23
c G (2) f
9 9 18 18
Determine the Critical Path
b D (5) e
6 6 19 20
a d g
0 0 13 13 23 23
c G (2) f
9 9 18 18
Determine the Critical Path
Critical Path: ACFIK
b D (5) e
6 6 19 20
a d g
0 0 13 13 23 23
c G (2) f
9 9 18 18
ES = from the diagram
Act a m b TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V
A 4 6 8 6
B 1 4.5 5 4
C 3 3 3 3
D 4 5 6 5
E .5 1 1.5 1
F 3 4 5 4
G 1 1.5 5 2
H 5 6 7 6
I 2 5 8 5
J 2.5 2.75 4.5 3
K 3 5 7 5
Early Start
b D (5) e
6 19
a d g
0 13 23
c G (2) f
9 18
ES = from the diagram
Act a m b TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V
A 4 6 8 6 0
B 1 4.5 5 4 0
C 3 3 3 3 6
D 4 5 6 5 6
E .5 1 1.5 1 6
F 3 4 5 4 9
G 1 1.5 5 2 9
H 5 6 7 6 13
I 2 5 8 5 13
J 2.5 2.75 4.5 3 19
K 3 5 7 5 18
LF = from the diagram
Act a m b TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V
A 4 6 8 6 0
B 1 4.5 5 4 0
C 3 3 3 3 6
D 4 5 6 5 6
E .5 1 1.5 1 6
F 3 4 5 4 9
G 1 1.5 5 2 9
H 5 6 7 6 13
I 2 5 8 5 13
J 2.5 2.75 4.5 3 19
K 3 5 7 5 18
Late Finish
b D (5) e
6 20
a d g
0 13 23
c G (2) f
9 18
LF = from the diagram
Act a m b TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V
A 4 6 8 6 0 6
B 1 4.5 5 4 0 9
C 3 3 3 3 6 9
D 4 5 6 5 6 20
E .5 1 1.5 1 6 13
F 3 4 5 4 9 13
G 1 1.5 5 2 9 18
H 5 6 7 6 13 20
I 2 5 8 5 13 18
J 2.5 2.75 4.5 3 19 23
K 3 5 7 5 18 23
EF = ES + duration
Act a m b TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V
A 4 6 8 6 0 6
B 1 4.5 5 4 0 9
C 3 3 3 3 6 9
D 4 5 6 5 6 20
E .5 1 1.5 1 6 13
F 3 4 5 4 9 13
G 1 1.5 5 2 9 18
H 5 6 7 6 13 20
I 2 5 8 5 13 18
J 2.5 2.75 4.5 3 19 23
K 3 5 7 5 18 23
EF = ES + duration
Act a m b TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V
A 4 6 8 6 0 6 6
B 1 4.5 5 4 0 4 9
C 3 3 3 3 6 9 9
D 4 5 6 5 6 11 20
E .5 1 1.5 1 6 7 13
F 3 4 5 4 9 13 13
G 1 1.5 5 2 9 11 18
H 5 6 7 6 13 19 20
I 2 5 8 5 13 18 18
J 2.5 2.75 4.5 3 19 22 23
K 3 5 7 5 18 23 23
LS = LF - duration
Act a m b TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V
A 4 6 8 6 0 6 6
B 1 4.5 5 4 0 4 9
C 3 3 3 3 6 9 9
D 4 5 6 5 6 11 20
E .5 1 1.5 1 6 7 13
F 3 4 5 4 9 13 13
G 1 1.5 5 2 9 11 18
H 5 6 7 6 13 19 20
I 2 5 8 5 13 18 18
J 2.5 2.75 4.5 3 19 22 23
K 3 5 7 5 18 23 23
LS = LF - duration
Act a m b TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V
A 4 6 8 6 0 6 0 6
B 1 4.5 5 4 0 4 5 9
C 3 3 3 3 6 9 6 9
D 4 5 6 5 6 11 15 20
E .5 1 1.5 1 6 7 12 13
F 3 4 5 4 9 13 9 13
G 1 1.5 5 2 9 11 16 18
H 5 6 7 6 13 19 14 20
I 2 5 8 5 13 18 13 18
J 2.5 2.75 4.5 3 19 22 20 23
K 3 5 7 5 18 23 18 23
Slack Time = LF – EF or LS - ES
Act a m b TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V
A 4 6 8 6 0 6 0 6
B 1 4.5 5 4 0 4 5 9
C 3 3 3 3 6 9 6 9
D 4 5 6 5 6 11 15 20
E .5 1 1.5 1 6 7 12 13
F 3 4 5 4 9 13 9 13
G 1 1.5 5 2 9 11 16 18
H 5 6 7 6 13 19 14 20
I 2 5 8 5 13 18 13 18
J 2.5 2.75 4.5 3 19 22 20 23
K 3 5 7 5 18 23 18 23
Slack Time = LF – EF or LS - ES
Act a m b TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V
A 4 6 8 6 0 6 0 6 0
B 1 4.5 5 4 0 4 5 9 5
C 3 3 3 3 6 9 6 9 0
D 4 5 6 5 6 11 15 20 9
E .5 1 1.5 1 6 7 12 13 6
F 3 4 5 4 9 13 9 13 0
G 1 1.5 5 2 9 11 16 18 7
H 5 6 7 6 13 19 14 20 1
I 2 5 8 5 13 18 13 18 0
J 2.5 2.75 4.5 3 19 22 20 23 1
K 3 5 7 5 18 23 18 23 0
Slack Time = LF – EF or LS - ES
Act a m b TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V
A 4 6 8 6 0 6 0 6 0
B 1 4.5 5 4 0 4 5 9 5
C 3 3 3 3 6 9 6 9 0
D 4 5 6 5 6 11 15 20 9
E .5 1 1.5 1 6 7 12 13 6
F 3 4 5 4 9 13 9 13 0
G 1 1.5 5 2 9 11 16 18 7
H 5 6 7 6 13 19 14 20 1
I 2 5 8 5 13 18 13 18 0
J 2.5 2.75 4.5 3 19 22 20 23 1
K 3 5 7 5 18 23 18 23 0
Standard Deviation
Act a m b TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V
A 4 6 8 6 0 6 0 6 0
B 1 4.5 5 4 0 4 5 9 5
C 3 3 3 3 6 9 6 9 0
D 4 5 6 5 6 11 15 20 9
𝑏−𝑎
SD = σ =
E .5 1 1.5 1 6 67 12 13 6
F 3 4 5 4 9 8 − 13
4 9 13 0
SD = σ =
G 1 1.5 5 2 9 6 11 16 18 7
SD = σ = 0.6719 14 20 1
H 5 6 7 6 13
I 2 5 8 5 13 18 13 18 0
J 2.5 2.75 4.5 3 19 22 20 23 1
K 3 5 7 5 18 23 18 23 0
Standard Deviation
Act a m b TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V
A 4 6 8 6 0 6 0 6 0 .67
B 1 4.5 5 4 0 4 5 9 5 .67
C 3 3 3 3 6 9 6 9 0 0
D 4 5 6 5 6 11 15 20 9 .33
E .5 1 1.5 1 6 7 12 13 6 .17
F 3 4 5 4 9 13 9 13 0 .33
G 1 1.5 5 2 9 11 16 18 7 .67
H 5 6 7 6 13 19 14 20 1 .33
I 2 5 8 5 13 18 13 18 0 1
J 2.5 2.75 4.5 3 19 22 20 23 1 .33
K 3 5 7 5 18 23 18 23 0 .67
Variance
Act a m b TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V
A 4 6 8 6 0 6 0 6 0 .67
B 1 4.5 5 4 0 4 5 9 5 .67
C 3 3 3 3 6 9 6 9 0 0
D 4 5 6 5 6 11 15 20 9 .33
2
2
𝑏 − 𝑎
E .5 1 1.5 Vt =1 σ =6 6 7 12 13 6 .17
F 3 4 5 4 9 13 9 13 0 .33
2
8 − 4
11 16 18 7 .67
G 1 1.5 5 Vt = 2 σ2 =9
6
H 5 6 7 6 13 19 14 20 1 .33
Vt = σ2 = 0.44
I 2 5 8 5 13 18 13 18 0 1
J 2.5 2.75 4.5 3 19 22 20 23 1 .33
K 3 5 7 5 18 23 18 23 0 .67
Variance
Act a m b TE ES EF LS LF Slack SD V
A 4 6 8 6 0 6 0 6 0 .67 .44
B 1 4.5 5 4 0 4 5 9 5 .67 .44
C 3 3 3 3 6 9 6 9 0 0 0
D 4 5 6 5 6 11 15 20 9 .33 .11
E .5 1 1.5 1 6 7 12 13 6 .17 .03
F 3 4 5 4 9 13 9 13 0 .33 .11
G 1 1.5 5 2 9 11 16 18 7 .67 .44
H 5 6 7 6 13 19 14 20 1 .33 .11
I 2 5 8 5 13 18 13 18 0 1 1
J 2.5 2.75 4.5 3 19 22 20 23 1 .33 .11
K 3 5 7 5 18 23 18 23 0 .67 .44
Critical Path: ACFIK
Vpath = VA + VC + VF + VI + VK
= 0.44 + 0 + 0.11 + 1 + 0.44
= 2
SDpath = [Link] (2)
SDpath = 1.414
Probability that the project will complete after 24 weeks:
specified time−path expected time x−μ
Z = =
path standard time σ
x−μ 24−23
Z = =
σ 1.414
Z = 0.71
From the Standard Normal Distribution
table:
P(z < .71) = .7611
From table of Normal Distribution:
From Appendix I
.00 .01 .07 .08
.1 .50000 .50399 .52790 .53188
.2 .53983 .54380 .56749 .57142
.7 .7580 0.7611
0.7611 .71566 .71904
.8 .7881 0.7910 .74857 .75175
0.71 Standard deviations
Probability
(T ≤ 24 weeks)
is 76.11%
23 24 Time
Weeks Weeks
Thus, the chance of having the project completed 1
week later than the expected duration is around
76.11%.
S - Curve
S - Curve
S – curve is a display of cumulative costs, labor,
hours or other quantities plotted against time. The
name derives from the S – like shape of the curve,
flatter at the beginning and end and steeper in the
middle, which is typical of most projects.
Sample of Plotting S - Curve
Act 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
A
B
C
D
E
Act Work Units Amount
A 1 1,000
B 10 40,000
C 11 550,000
D 4 100,000
E 2 2,000
Total 28 P 693,000
Cash and Work Flow Computation
At the end of day 2: At the end of day 8:
Cum. Work = 2 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑠 Cum. Work = 14 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑠
𝟐 𝟏𝟒
Cum. Work (%) = 𝒙𝟏𝟎𝟎 = 𝟕% Cum. Work (%) = 𝒙𝟏𝟎𝟎 = 𝟓𝟎%
𝟐𝟖 𝟐𝟖
1(1000) 1(40000) 1(1000) 7(40000)
Cum. Cost = + Cum. Cost = + +
1 10 1 10
Cum. Cost = P 5000 6(550000)
5000 11
Cum. Cost % = 𝑥100
693000
Cum. Cost = P 329000
Cum. Cost (%) = 𝟎. 𝟕%
𝟑𝟐𝟗𝟎𝟎𝟎
Cum. Cost (%) = 𝒙𝟏𝟎𝟎 = 𝟒𝟕%
𝟔𝟗𝟑𝟎𝟎𝟎
Plot the S – Curve
As Planned S-Curves
100% 200%
90% 180%
80% 160%
Cummulative Cost
70% 140%
Cumulative Work
60% 120%
50% 100%
40% 80%
30% 60%
20% 40%
10% 20%
0% 0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Schedule in Days
