Population Ecology

Dynamics of populations
Growth & Decline
 What is population Ecology?
• Def: a branch of ecology that studies the
structure and dynamics of populations in
relation to their environment
• Structure – Ecology 1
– population density and distribution, age structure,
and sex ratios, variations in population size etc
• dynamics of populations
– Growth and decline of populations
 Recap -Pop characteristics – Ecology 1
• Population size definition number of individuals important
feature of any population
– affects ability of population to survive small populations tend to
become extinct endangered by random events
• Population density - number of individuals in a certain area or
volume
– # trees per km2 of forest
• # earthworms per m3 of soil
• important to survival of population
– High density -Interspecific competition
– Low Density – Allele effect
• limits reproductive capacities

• how is population density measured?

– impossible or impractical to count all individuals in a population
• Population dispersion way in which individuals of a
population are spaced within their area or volume
– often depends on resource availability
• three main patterns of dispersion
 clumped individuals clump into groups or clusters
– often in response to uneven distribution of resources
– most common pattern in nature
 uniform individuals are uniformly or evenly spaced
– often results from interactions between individuals
– relatively common in nature
 random individuals spaced in a pattern-less, unpredictable
way
– don’t interact strongly with
– one another
– non-uniform aspects of their environment
 Pop characteristics
• Population age distribution proportions of individuals of each
age often based on
– non-reproductive ages
– reproductive ages
– post-reproductive ages
 Levels of
Organization in
Ecology
 Levels of Organization
• Ecologists have organized the
interactions an organism takes part
into different levels according to
complexity.
 What are the Simplest Levels?
• Atom
• Molecule
• Organelle
• Cell
• Tissue
• Organ
• System
 1st Level of Organization
• Organism:
An individual living
thing that is made
of cells,
uses energy,
reproduces,
responds,
grows, and
develops
 2nd Level of Organization
• Population:
A group of
organisms, all
of the same
species, which
interbreed and
live in the same
place at the
same time.
 3rd Level of Organization
• Biological
Community:
All the
populations of
different
species that live
in the same
place at the
same time.
11
 4th Level of Organization
• Ecosystem:
Populations of plants
and animals that
interact with each
other in a given area
with the abiotic
components of that
area. (terrestrial
or aquatic)
 5th Level of Organization

• Biosphere:
The portion
of Earth
that
supports
life.
The Biosphere

• Life is found in air, on land,

and in fresh and salt water.
• The BIOSPHERE is the
portion of Earth that
supports living things.
 Definition of a Population
• The term population is interpreted differently
in various sciences
• Human Demography – a pop is a set of
humans in a given area
• In Genetics – a group of interbreeding
individuals of the same species
• In Pop Ecology -2nd Level of Organization
is considered
 2nd Level of Organization
• Population:
A group of
organisms, all
of the same
species, which
interbreed and
live in the same
place at the
same time.
Pop Ecology relative to other
disciplines
• Physiology studies individual
characteristics and individual
processes.
– These are used as a basis for
prediction of processes at the
population level.

• Community ecology studies the

structure and dynamics of
animal and plant communities.
– provides modeling tools that can
be used for predicting community
structure and dynamics.
• Systems ecology is a
relatively new ecological
discipline which studies
interaction of human
population with environment.
– One of the major concepts are
optimization of ecosystem
exploitation and sustainable
ecosystem management.
• Landscape ecology -another
new area in ecology which
studies regional large-scale
ecosystems with the aid of
GIS
– Biomes of the world
 Why do we study pop ecology?
• Understanding pop is important in:
• Conserving species
• Controlling and predicting the biotic & abiotic
environment
– outbreak of pests & diseases
• Understanding evolution
 How do we understand populations?
• Understanding pop in ecology is aided by the use of models.

• Modelling- Use of computer simulations or mathematical

expressions to address questions that cannot be answered by
experiments or observations
• ecology has grown in its sophistication

• Models – tools that are used to make predictions about the

populations
• Models and reality are linked by two procedures
– Abstraction and Interpretation
 Modeling
• Abstraction – generalizations taking the most important
components of real system and ignoring the less important
ones

• Importance is evaluated by relative effect of system

components on its dynamics
– Eg < 5% parasitism, parasites are excluded from the model
• Interpretation – model
components (parameters &
variables) and model
behaviour can be related to
real systems
 Aims of modelling

 To provide general insight into how ecological systems or

ecological interactions work

 To provide specific predictions about the likely futures of

particular populations, communities or ecosystems –
management tool

 Forecasting – the most likely outcomes of particular

populations or ecosystems
 Nb// ecology has grown in its sophistication – models are
increasingly used as decision making tools for policy makers
Density independent Pop growth

Discrete-time exponential model

Continuous-time exponential model
Applications of the model
 Pop Growth
• Occurs when birth rate exceeds death rate

• Organisms have enormous potential to increase their

populations if not constrained by mortality.

• Any organism could swamp the planet in a short time if it

reproduced without restraint.

• Two models are used to describe density –independent

population growth
 Discrete-time exponential model

• This model is an analog of the exponential

model and is used to describe the pop growth
of organisms with one generation per year
• Nt+1 = Nt R
• t = time measured in generations
• R = net reproduction rate
• Used to describe the growth of an isolated
population with discrete generations
 Nt+1 = Nt R

• Equation describes population growth in an idealized,

unlimited environment.
• Exponential population growth
– Results in a J-shaped curve

2,000
dN
 1.0N
dt
1,500 • Different R values give different
dN
 0.5N
Population size (N)

dt curves
• Higher R means pop grows faste
1,000

500

0
0 5 10 15
ure 52.9 Number of generations
 Continuous -time exponential model
• Used to describe pop growth in an isolated pop with
overlapping generations, living in an unlimited environment

• Ecologists express instantaneous population growth using

calculus.
– modelling

• Zero population growth occurs when the birth rate equals the
death rate r = 0.

• The population growth equation can be expressed as

dN 
dt rN
Example of Exponential Growth

Kruger National Park, South Africa

 r
• Instantaneous growth rate is modeled not N
• A change in pop size will automatically feeds
back on pop growth rate
– Change of rN to r(N+1)
• In contrast to discrete model eg number of
seeds germinating next year is dependent on
the number that germinated last year
– No instantaneous adjustment of pop growth rate
 Application of Discrete and Cts time
models
• Models accurately describe the initial rate of growth of some
populations
– Eg the growth of bacteria in petri dishes

• Species invading new habitats often grow exponentially

• However, pop cannot exponentially grow, they reach infinite

size
• This leads to the central question in pop ecology
– ‘WHAT ARE THE FACTORS THAT LIMIT POP GROWTH AND
HOW IMPORTANT ARE THEY?”
• Cts and Discrete time models some times do have similar
model outcomes

• Population exponentially declines (r < 0)

• Population exponentially increases (r > 0)
• Population does not change (r = 0)
• r is called: Malthusian parameter
– Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834) who first realized that
any species can potentially increase in numbers according
to a geometric series.
Density Dependent Pop Growth
(DDPG)
 DDPG
• In DDPG, growth rate depends on pop current size N
• There is a tendency for N to increase when it is low and N
declines when it is high
• This is caused by two general types of density
dependence
• Intraspecific competition
– Amount of resources available to an individual member
becomes limiting when pop increases
• Allele effect – pop growth declines at low density due to
a number of reasons eg
– Failure to find mates
– Social interactions – eg lions need to hunt in packs
 Recap- exponential growth

The exponential model of population describes an

idealized population in an unlimited environment

• We defined a change in population size based on

the following verbal equation.

Change in population = Births during – Deaths during

size during time interval time interval time interval
• Using mathematical notation we can express this
relationship as follows:
– If N represents population size, and t represents time,
then N is the change is population size and t
represents the change in time, then:
• N/t = B-D
• Where B is the number of births and D is the
number of deaths
– We can simplify the equation and use r to represent the
difference in per capita birth and death rates.
• N/t = rN OR dN/dt = rN

– If B = D then there is zero population growth (ZPG).

– Under ideal conditions, a population grows rapidly.

• Exponential population growth is said to be
happening
• Under these conditions, we may assume the
maximum growth rate for the population (rmax) to give
us the following exponential growth
• dN/dt = rmaxN
rmax
 The logistic model of population growth
incorporates the concept of carrying
capacity (K)

• Typically, unlimited resources are rare.

– Population growth is therefore regulated by carrying capacity (K), which is
the maximum stable population size a particular environment can support.

• Logistic Growth Model

– In the LGM, the per capita rate of increase (r) declines as carrying capacity
is approached.

• We construct the logistic model by starting with the exponential

model and adding an expression that reduces the per capita rate
of increase as N increases
 LGM
• The logistic growth equation includes K, the carrying capacity
(number of organisms environment can support

dN (K  N)
 rmax N
dt K
• As population size (N) increases, the equation ((K-N)/K)
becomes smaller which slows the population’s growth rate.
Logistic model produces a sigmoid (S-shaped) population
growth curve.
 LGM
• Logistic model predicts different per capita growth
rates for populations at low and high density.
• At low density
– population growth rate driven primarily by r the rate at
which offspring can be produced.
– population grows rapidly.
• At high population density
– population growth is much slower as density effects exert
their effect.
• How well does the logistic model fit the
growth of real populations?
– The growth of laboratory populations of some animals
fits the S-shaped curves fairly well.

Stable population
Some populations overshoot K before settling down to a
relatively stable density

180

150
Number of Daphnia/50 ml

120

90

60

30

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Time (days)

(b) A Daphnia population in the lab. The growth of a population of Daphnia in a

small laboratory culture (black dots) does not correspond well to the logistic
model (red curve). This population overshoots the carrying capacity of its artificial
environment and then settles down to an approximately stable population size.
 Types of pop dynamics
• In nature there are 4 types of population
fluctuations. Variations of LGM
• stable,
• irruptive,
• irregular and
• cyclic
Stable Oscillations
• A species whose population size fluctuates slightly above and below it's
carrying capacity is said to have a fairly stable population size
• Common in undisturbed tropical rain forests, where average temperature
and rainfall varies little from year to year.
Damping oscillations
• A population will overshoot and then undershoot the carrying
capacity in sequence.
• The degree to which it undershoots or overshoots, however,
will lessen with each time-step, until the population
eventually settles on the carrying capacity.
 Irruptive
• Populations may occasionally
explode, or irrupt, to a high peak
and then crash to a more stable
lower level or in some cases to a
very low level.
• The population explosion is caused
by some factor that temporarily
increases carrying capacity for the
population, such as
– favorable weather, more food,
or fewer predators.
• Dieback: when the population
decreases as fast as, or faster , than
it grows due to a limiting factor
• Overshoot: extent to which a
population exceeds the carrying
capacity of its environment.
 Irregular
• Some populations exhibit what appears to be irregular chaotic
behavior in their changes in population size, with no recurring
pattern.
• Irregular cycles are observed over time
80

60
Number of females

40

20

0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Time (years)

• A song sparrow population in its natural habitat showing cyclic

model.
• Pop is periodically reduced by severe winter weather, and
population growth is not well described by the logistic model.
 Cyclic -Predator prey cycles
• A closely related model to population oscillation is the
community predator & prey interaction.
• Sometimes the crash or oscillation mechanism inferred is a
predation (predator decreasing the prey) or resource
depletion (prey depletion results in predator decrease
 Top-down vs bottom up control of
cyclic behaviour
Top-down control hypothesis bottom-up control hypothesis
– Predator (lynx) prey on hare • rather than cycle being driven by
– reduces hare population predator at top
– fewer hares support fewer lynxes • might be driven by food source of
– causes periodic reduction in lynx prey (hare) at bottom
population • reduction in quantity or quality of
– reduced numbers of predators food source (plants) of hare leads to
(lynx) allows population of prey crash of hare population
(hare) to recover and increase • fewer hare support fewer predators
– increased numbers of prey (hare) and lynx population crashes
support increased numbers of • reduction in hare population gives
predators and lynx population plant population time to recover
increases • increased plant population supports
– cycle continues more hares and hare population
– bottom-up control increases
• increased hare population supports
more lynx and lynx population
increases
• cycle continues, driven by plant
availability
 Density dependence at low density –
Allele effects
• Allele effects occur when pop densities become so low that it
becomes difficult for individuals to interact in some way
• Eg at low density, it maybe difficult to encounter sexual mates
 Factors that regulate population
growth
• Various factors regulate population growth, primarily
affecting natality or mortality, and can be classified in
different ways
• Intrinsic
– Operating within individual organisms or between organisms in
the same species
• Extrinsic
– Imposed from outside the population
• Factors can be either:
• Biotic – caused by living organisms
• Abiotic – caused by nonliving components of the
environment

Natality is the production of new individuals by birth, hatching, germination etc

 Regulatory factors can be density-
independent or –dependent.
Density-independent factors
• In general, the factors that affect natality or mortality independently
of population density tend to be Abiotic components of the
ecosystem.
– Often weather (conditions at a particular time) or climate (average
weather conditions over along period time)

Density-dependent factors
• This type of mechanism tends to reduce population size by decreasing
natality or increasing mortality as the population size increases.
• Interspecific interactions
– Interactions between different species
• Predator and prey interactions affect the prey’s population
– Intraspecific interactions
• Individuals within a population also compete for resources, so limiting resources
also affect the population size or number