LOAD FORECASTING

Presented by:
Ishan Nagpal
Jaikumar Dakhane
Jitender Maan
Jitesh Kumar
 LOAD

A device which uses electrical energy is said to impose a

load on the system

It can be used :
• To indicate a device or collection of devices which
consume electrical energy
• To indicate power required from a given supply circuit
• To indicate the current or power through a line or a
machine
 Load Demand

The load demand of an area depends upon –

1.Its Geographical location

2.Its population
3.Their living standards
4.Its present and future development plans
5.Cost of power
 Load characteristics

Basic definition –

 Demand Factor = maximum demand

connected load of a consumer

 Load Factor = average demand

maximum demand

 Utilization factor = maximum demand

rated capacity of the system.
 LOAD CHARACTERISTICS

 Diversity factor - sum of individual maximum power demands

maximum demand of the system.

Types of load -
1. Domestic – demand factor- 70-100%

diversity factor- 1.2 to 1.3

load factor- 10 to 15%.

 Types of Load

2. Commercial - demand factor-90-100%

diversity factor-1.1 to 1.2
load factor-25 to 30%

3. Industrial - demand factor-70-80%

load factor-60 to 65%

4. Municipal - demand factor-100%

load factor-25 to 30%
diversity factor-1.0
 Types of Load

5. Agriculture load - demand factor-90-100%

load factor-20 to 25%
diversity factor-1 to1.5
 System Power Factor

The power factor of an AC electric power system is defined as

the ratio of the real power flowing to the apparent power in
the circuit.
OR
Measurement of angular difference between voltage and
current.

P = V* I cosφ

Pf varies from 0 to 1.
Pf = 0, when phase angle is 90.
Pf =1, when phase angle is 0.
 System Power Factor

When power factor (φ=0, cosφ=1). When power factor (φ=90, cosφ=0)
 System Power Factor

When power factor (φ=45, cosφ=0.71)

 Power factor of different Instruments

• Fluorescent lamps 0.6-0.8

• Fans 0.5-0.8
• Induction motors 0.55-0.85
• Refrigerator 0.65
• Tube light 0.5-0.9
• Textile Industry 0.65-0.75
• Cement Industry 0.8-0.85
 Feeder load characteristics

• Types of load composition of feeder-

1.Domestic
2.Commercial
3.Industrial
4.Agriculture

• Percentage load of each category in the total demand

depends upon-
1.Time of year.
2.Time of day.
3.Geographical location.
4.Socio-economic conditions.
5.Diversity factors.
 Connected Loads

• Industrial loads-

a. Cottage industries - very small electrical motors ranging from ¼

to ½ kW average power.

b. Small scale industries-ranging from sugar mill 0.5 kW per

tonne of sugarcane to arc furnace 350 per tonne steel.
 Connected Loads

• Street lighting - determined separately for each town.

IS-1944 gives code of practice for the design of public
lighting.

• Water supply - load estimated from the water

requirement.
Rural areas - 50 litres/day/person
Semi-rural areas - 70 litres/day/person
For urban area - 90 litres/day/person
Metropolitan cities - 120 litres/day/person
 Connected Loads

• Irrigation - load depends on the

1. Number of watering required for crop

2. Area under the crops
3. Nature of soil
4. Depth of water level.
Ground water HP for 20 L/s HP for 40 L/s
level discharge discharge

0-2 3 5

2-5 3.5 5-7.5

5-10 5 7.5

10-15 7.5 10

20-30 15-20 25
 Connected Loads
• Dirty loads or non-linear loads - known for producing
harmonics, voltage fluctuation and large variation in the
demand for reactive power.

• Computers, TVs, large motors, railway traction and other

heavy loads.

• Remedial measures are-

1. Use filters

2. Supply high voltage and provide parallel transformers.

3. Provide capacitors
 Objectives of load forecasting

•To know the peak load of system

•Energy requirement in day, month and year
•To know the load duration curve
•Supply side management
•To estimate the proper investment requirement
•Demand side management
LOAD DISPATCH CENTERS
Load Forecasting methods
 Load Forecasting
Prediction
 Statement or guess, Beyond control
 Ex-Rain or bad weather
Forecasting
 What will happen if certain trends/events continue
 Causes of Events Can be controlled
Forecasting in Electricity Industry
 tremendous importance due to large investments involved
 medium range forecasting
 real time forecasting
 long term forecasting
 conservative estimates vs. optimistic estimates
 Importance of Load Forecasting

Forecasting gives magnitude and location of loads

Accurate model helps in

1)Economic size of plant and apparatus

at correct time and place.

2)Generation authorities plan their water and fuel

requirements and the generator allocation schedules.
 Importance of Load Forecasting

3)Load forecasting helps an electric

utility to make important
decisions including decisions on
purchasing and generating
electric power, load switching,
and infrastructure development.
4)Load forecasts are extremely
important for energy suppliers,
ISOs, financial institutions, and
other participants in electric
energy generation, transmission,
distribution, and markets.
 Types of Load Forecasting

Load forecasts can be divided into three categories:

 short-term forecasts
(usually from one hour to one week)
 medium forecasts
(which are usually from a week to a year)
 long-term forecasts
(longer than a year)

The forecasts for different time horizons are important for

different operations within a utility company. The natures of
these forecasts are different as well.
 De-regulation and Forecasting

Load forecasting has always been important for

planning and operational decision conducted by
utility companies.
However, with the deregulation of the energy
industries, load forecasting is even more important.

With supply and demand fluctuating and the changes of

weather conditions and energy prices increasing by a factor
of ten or more during peak situations, load forecasting is
vitally important for utilities.
 Concepts

 Time series (based on historical datas)

 Trend analysis

 Correlation Theory

 Aritficial Neural Networks

Time Series
 Time Series

• Typical power system load curves can be represented as

Y=T×C×S×I Y=T+C+S+I
multiplicative model additive model

Where
T = long term trend
C= cyclical trend (mainly over many years)
S = seasonal trend (1 year cycle)
I = irregularr movements(noise)*
*In part due to temperature effects
Times Series-Components
 Regression/Trend Analysis

 Trend Analysis
Study of behaviour of a time series or a process in the past and
its mathematical modelling so that future behaviour can be
extrapolated from it.
Gives nature of relationships between the variables, where as
correlation analysis measures the degree of relationship between
the variables.
Approaches to Trend Analysis
1.Fitting continuous mathematical functions through actual data
2.Fitting of a sequence on discontinuous lines or curves to data (short
term forecasting)
Regression/Trend Analysis
Trend analysis
 Trend analysis

 Typical regression curves used in power system forecasting

Linear y=A+Bx
Exponential y=A(1+B)x
Power y=AxB
Polynomial y=A+Bx+Cx2

Method of Least squares

 Can be used either to fit a straight line trend or a parabolic
Trend
 Correlation Theory

It is the measure of how one variable is related to another.

Methods
1. Scatter Diagram
2. Karl Pearson’s coefficient of Correlation
3. Spearman’s Rank correlation coefficient
4. Method of least squares
 Coeeficient of correlation is also called “goodness of fit”
 Karl pearson’s coeeficient of correlation
∑(X-Xav). (Y-Yav)
r= -------------------------
(∑(X-Xav)2. ∑(Y-Yav)2)1/2
Correlation Theory
 Artificial Neural Networks

• An artificial neural network

(ANN), usually called neural
network (NN), is a mathematical
model or computational
model that is inspired by the
structure and/or functional
aspects of biological neural
networks
• Neural networks offer the
potential to overcome the
reliance on a functional form of a
forecasting model.
 Summary of Fundamental steps

1)Collection of data (reliably)

2)Draw a graph
3)Construct a long term trend
4)Seasonal index if it exists and de-seasonalize the data
5)Adjust data for the trend
Factors in Load Forecasting
 Factors in Power System Loading

• Econometric
• Single factor modeling
• Forecast of system peak
• Capacity forecast model
• Strategic forecasting
• Spatial load forecasting
 ECONOMETRIC

Certain factors under econometric are

• Business and economic cycle (cyclic Variation)
• Growth of GNP (Long term variation)
• Growth in population (Long term trend)
Most of these factors effect the long term trend and not
effect normal model based on past history.
 Single Factor Modeling

Single factor modeling is based on a model

that assumes one dominant factor,
determines the model outcome.
 Defects in Single factor modeling

• It is too general

• Uneven distribution may Bias the forecasting values as

the respective values of one parameter may be less or
more in some other parameter.

• As the rate of growth of different sectors is not same

hence it is not comprehensive
 System Peak

It is given by the formula :-

Annual System Peak = Energy Requirement

8760 x Load Factor

The load factor here is plotted against time series to have a trend
graph.
It is observed that load factors change a lot with
changes in economic activities although the
relationship is not linear.

For any year system peak is given as : -

P1 = K + dR1 + cC1 + f I1

The value can be determined by method of least

squares

Where
P = Monthly or Yearly peak
R = Monthly or Yearly domestic sales
I = Monthly or Yearly Industrial sales
C = Monthly or Yearly Commercial sales
K = an additional Constant
• Relation of GDP to energy consumption is an important
indicator.

• The elasticity of consumption with respect to GDP for

India in 1980 – 1992 was 1.61

This implies that increase in GDP of 1 % will increase

1.61 % of electricity consumption.
 Capacity forecast Model

As the forecast for electrical energy is on national level, in

this the national projections is converted to regional
peaks.
From this the regional capacity requirements are made,
removing the current generation and planned capacity
addition there.
Finally addition of planned retirement of units gives the net
new capacity to be added.
 Strategic Forecasting

It involves thorough examination of factors effecting

future growth.

It requires following : -
• Consumers current demand
• Consumers potential demand
• Competitiveness in market
• Availability of alternatives
In industry : -
Strategic management combines
• Econometric
• Technological detail
Strategic Management provides : -
• Future Assessment
• They provide planners for shaping up the future.
 Spatial Forecasting

This method breaks down to geographically and

consumer oriented forecasting.

A land use map can be converted to electric load by

using kW per acre of load curves on land use class
basis.
 Electricity Demand
Growth

Increase in Specific Increase in No. of

Consumption Connections

Transmission and Sub-

(-)
Transmission
(Extrapolation) Consumers

Diversity Load Factor

Planning engineers are using GIS to visualize the distribution
system’s load and forecast “what they are likely to see new
addition to the system”.

It can predict

1) The extent and timeline of community development

2) Direction of infrastructure investment.
3) Location of new substation.
 Limitations

• It cannot replace knowledge and experience of

area engineers.

• It cannot identify substation site to be

purchased.
 Forecasting for growth in regions : -

• Inner city – Increase in Specific Consumption

• Agriculture –
a. Projections of land irrigation
b. Prospective agricultural consumers
c. Availability of land water
• Industrial –
a. Diversification of business
b. New consumers
c. Change in production process
Harmonics in Power Sector
 Harmonics

• A sinusoidal component of a periodic wave or quantity

having a frequency that is an integral multiple of the
fundamental frequency’

• Typical harmonics for a 50Hz system are,

Single phase – 3rd, 6th, etc. can cause transformer

neutral conductor overheating
Three phase – 5th, 7th, 11th, 13th, etc. can cause
equipment malfunctions
 Why Harmonics

• These current result due to the fact that the device

either has an impedance which varies during each half
cycle of applied emf or it generate a back emf of non
sinusoidal shape.

Result - Distortion of the

Wave shape .
The power company typically supplies a reasonably
smooth sinusoidal waveform:
Nonlinear devices will draw distorted waveforms, which
are comprised of harmonics of the source:
Harmonics currents are generated by the use of :

Rectifiers
 Inverters
Induction furnaces
Arc furnaces
Fluorescent lamps
TVs
UPS & Computers etc.
 Adverse Effect of Harmonics
• Fluctuation of voltage

• Efficiency & capacity utilization of transformers, generators

• High skin effect loss

• High I2R loss

• High failure rate in Motors, sophisticated electronics

equipments.
 Total Harmonics Distortion

• The ratio of the sum of the power of all harmonic

components to the power of the fundamental
frequency

• Pn :- Sum of all power

• P1 :- Power of fundamental frequency
Maximum Limits of Voltage Harmonic Distortion
in HT and EHT Systems
 How are Harmonics Minimized ?

• Use three-phase drives wherever possible.

• Use an additional inductance.

• Make use of a harmonic filter.

 Filters

• A series- tuned harmonic filter consists of a capacitor bank

with a reactor (inductor) in series with it. The series
combination provides a low impedance path for a specific
harmonic component, there by minimizing harmonic
voltage distortion problems.
• The filter is tuned slightly below the harmonic frequency of
concern.
 Measurement of Harmonics

Microprocessor based electronic meters can measure

(individual as well as total % THD) are being installed at
feeders from the sub-station, and for industrial, commercial
or other consumers with predominant non linear load.
Thanks