Waiting Lines and Queuing

Theory Models
 Introduction
 Queuing theory is the study of waiting lines.
 It is one of the oldest and most widely used
quantitative analysis techniques.
 The three basic components of a queuing
process are arrivals, service facilities, and the
actual waiting line.
 Analytical models of waiting lines can help
managers evaluate the cost and effectiveness
of service systems.

Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 13-2

 Waiting Line Costs
 Most waiting line problems are focused on
finding the ideal level of service a firm should
provide.
 In most cases, this service level is something
management can control.
 When an organization does have control, they
often try to find the balance between two
extremes.

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 Waiting Line Costs
 There is generally a trade-off between cost of
providing service and cost of waiting time.
 A large staff and many service facilities generally
results in high levels of service but have high costs.
 Having the minimum number of service facilities keeps
service cost down but may result in dissatisfied
customers.
 Service facilities are evaluated on their total
expected cost which is the sum of service costs
and waiting costs.
 Organizations typically want to find the service
level that minimizes the total expected cost.

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Queuing Costs and Service Levels

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 Characteristics of a Queuing System

 There are three parts to a queuing system:

1. The arrivals or inputs to the system
(sometimes referred to as the calling
population).
population
2. The queue or waiting line itself.
3. The service facility.
 These components have their own
characteristics that must be examined
before mathematical models can be
developed.

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 Characteristics of a Queuing System

Arrival Characteristics have three major

characteristics: size,
size pattern,
pattern and behavior.
 The size of the calling population can be either
unlimited (essentially infinite)
infinite or limited
(finite).
finite
 The pattern of arrivals can arrive according to
a known pattern or can arrive randomly.
 Random arrivals generally follow a Poisson
distribution.

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 Characteristics of a Queuing System

Behavior of arrivals
 Most queuing models assume customers are
patient and will wait in the queue until they are
served and do not switch lines.
 Balking refers to customers who refuse to join
the queue.
 Reneging customers enter the queue but
become impatient and leave without receiving
their service.
 That these behaviors exist is a strong
argument for the use of queuing theory to
managing waiting lines.

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 Characteristics of a Queuing System

Waiting Line Characteristics

 Waiting lines can be either limited or unlimited.
 Queue discipline refers to the rule by which
customers in the line receive service.
 The most common rule is first-in, first-out (FIFO).
FIFO
 Other rules are possible and may be based on other
important characteristics.
 Other rules can be applied to select which
customers enter which queue, but may apply
FIFO once they are in the queue.

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 Characteristics of a Queuing System

Service Facility Characteristics

 Basic queuing system configurations:
 Service systems are classified in terms of
the number of channels, or servers, and the
number of phases, or service stops.
 A single-channel system with one server is
quite common.
 Multichannel systems exist when multiple
servers are fed by one common waiting line.
 In a single-phase system, the customer
receives service form just one server.
 In a multiphase system, the customer has to
go through more than one server.
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 Four basic
queuing
system
configurations

13-11
 Characteristics of a Queuing System

Service time distribution

 Service patterns can be either constant or
random.
 Constant service times are often machine
controlled.
 More often, service times are randomly
distributed according to a negative
exponential probability distribution.
 Analysts should observe, collect, and plot
service time data to ensure that the
observations fit the assumed distributions
when applying these models.

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 Identifying Models Using
Kendall Notation
 D. G. Kendall developed a notation for queuing
models that specifies the pattern of arrival, the
service time distribution, and the number of
channels.
 Notation takes the form:
Arrival Service time Number of service
distribution distribution channels open

 Specific letters are used to represent probability

distributions.
M = Poisson distribution for number of occurrences
D = constant (deterministic) rate
G = general distribution with known mean and variance

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 Identifying Models Using
Kendall Notation
 A single-channel model with Poisson arrivals and
exponential service times would be represented
by:
M/M/1
 If a second channel is added the notation would
read:
M/M/2
 A three-channel system with Poisson arrivals and
constant service time would be
M/D/3
 A four-channel system with Poisson arrivals and
normally distributed service times would be
M/G/4
Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 13-14
Single-Channel Model, Poisson Arrivals,
Exponential Service Times (M/M/1)
Assumptions of the model:
 Arrivals are served on a FIFO basis.
 There is no balking or reneging.
 Arrivals are independent of each other but the
arrival rate is constant over time.
 Arrivals follow a Poisson distribution.
 Service times are variable and independent but
the average is known.
 Service times follow a negative exponential
distribution.
 Average service rate is greater than the average
arrival rate.
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Single-Channel Model, Poisson Arrivals,
Exponential Service Times (M/M/1)
 When these assumptions are met, we
can develop a series of equations
that define the queue’s operating
characteristics.
 Queuing Equations:
Let
 = mean number of arrivals per time period
 = mean number of customers or units
served per time period
The arrival rate and the service rate must be
defined for the same time period.
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Single-Channel Model, Poisson Arrivals,
Exponential Service Times (M/M/1)
1. The average number of customers or units in the
system, L:

L

2. The average time a customer spends in the
system, W:
1
W 

3. The average number of customers in the queue, Lq:
2
Lq 
(   )
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Single-Channel Model, Poisson Arrivals,
Exponential Service Times (M/M/1)
4. The average time a customer spends waiting in
the queue, Wq:

Wq 
(   )

5. The utilization factor for the system, , the

probability the service facility is being used:




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Single-Channel Model, Poisson Arrivals,
Exponential Service Times (M/M/1)
6. The percent idle time, P0, or the probability no one
is in the system:

P0  1 


7. The probability that the number of customers in

the system is greater than k, Pn>k:
k 1

Pn k  


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 Arnold’s Muffler Shop
 Arnold’s mechanic can install mufflers at a rate of
3 per hour.
 Customers arrive at a rate of 2 per hour.
 So:
 = 2 cars arriving per hour
 = 3 cars serviced per hour

 2 2
L    2 cars in the system
  32 1 on average

1 1
W    1 hour that an average car
  32 spends in the system
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 Arnold’s Muffler Shop

2 22 4
Lq     1.33 cars waiting in line
 (    ) 3(3  2) 3(1) on average
 2
Wq   hour  40 minutes average
(   ) 3 waiting time per car
 2
    0.67  percentage of time
 3 mechanic is busy
 2
P0  1   1   0.33  probability that there
 3 are 0 cars in the system

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 Arnold’s Muffler Shop
 Introducing costs into the model:
 Arnold wants to do an economic analysis of
the queuing system and determine the waiting
cost and service cost.
 The total service cost is:

Total (Number of channels)

=
service cost x (Cost per channel)
Total
service cost = mCs

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 Arnold’s Muffler Shop
Waiting cost when the cost is based on time in the
system:
Total (Total time spent waiting by all
=
waiting cost arrivals) x (Cost of waiting)
(Number of arrivals) x
=
(Average wait per arrival)Cw
Total
waiting cost = (W)Cw
If waiting time cost is based on time in the queue:
Total
waiting cost = (Wq)Cw

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 Arnold’s Muffler Shop

So the total cost of the queuing system when based

on time in the system is:

Total cost = Total service cost + Total waiting cost

Total cost = mCs + WCw

And when based on time in the queue:

Total cost = mCs + WqCw

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 Arnold’s Muffler Shop
 Arnold estimates the cost of customer waiting
time in line is $50 per hour.
Total daily
waiting cost = (8 hours per day)WqCw
= (8)(2)(2/3)($50) = $533.33
 Arnold has identified the mechanics wage $15 per
hour as the service cost.
Total daily
service cost = (8 hours per day)mCs
= (8)(1)($15) = $120
 So the total cost of the system is:
Total daily cost of
the queuing system = $533.33 + $120 = $653.33
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 Arnold’s Muffler Shop
 Arnold is thinking about hiring a different
mechanic who can install mufflers at a faster rate.
 The new operating characteristics would be:
 = 2 cars arriving per hour
 = 4 cars serviced per hour

 2 2
L    1 car in the system
  42 2 on the average

1 1
W    1/2 hour that an average car
  42 spends in the system

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 Arnold’s Muffler Shop

2 22 4
Lq     1/2 car waiting in line
 (    ) 4( 4  2) 8(1) on the average
 1
Wq   hour  15 minutes average
(   ) 4 waiting time per car
 2
    0.5  percentage of time
 4 mechanic is busy
 2
P0  1   1   0 .5  probability that there
 4 are 0 cars in the system

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 Arnold’s Muffler Shop Case
 The customer waiting cost is the same $50 per
hour:
Total daily
waiting cost = (8 hours per day)WqCw
= (8)(2)(1/4)($50) = $200.00
 The new mechanic is more expensive at $20 per
hour:
Total daily
service cost = (8 hours per day)mCs
= (8)(1)($20) = $160
 So the total cost of the system is:
Total daily cost of
the queuing system = $200 + $160 = $360
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 Arnold’s Muffler Shop

 The total time spent waiting for the 16 customers

per day was formerly:
(16 cars per day) x (2/3 hour per car) = 10.67 hours
 It is now is now:

(16 cars per day) x (1/4 hour per car) = 4 hours

 The total daily system costs are less with the new
mechanic resulting in significant savings:
$653.33 – $360 = $293.33

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 Enhancing the Queuing Environment

 Reducing waiting time is not the only way

to reduce waiting cost.
 Reducing the unit waiting cost (Cw) will
also reduce total waiting cost.
 This might be less expensive to achieve
than reducing either W or Wq.

Copyright ©2012 Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Prentice Hall 13-30

 Multichannel Queuing Model with Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times
(M/M/m)
Assumptions of the model:
 Arrivals are served on a FIFO basis.
 There is no balking or reneging.
 Arrivals are independent of each other but the
arrival rate is constant over time.
 Arrivals follow a Poisson distribution.
 Service times are variable and independent but
the average is known.
 Service times follow a negative exponential
distribution.
 The average service rate is greater than the
average arrival rate.
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 Multichannel Queuing Model with Poisson
Arrivals and Exponential Service Times (M/M/m)
 Equations for the multichannel queuing model:
 Let
m = number of channels open
 = average arrival rate
 = average service rate at each channel
1. The probability that there are zero customers in
the system is:
1
P0  for m   
 n  m 1
1
n
 1  m
m
   
n!   
  
 n0  m!    m   

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 Multichannel Model, Poisson Arrivals,
Exponential Service Times (M/M/m)
2. The average number of customers or units in the
system
 ( /  ) m 
L P 
( m  1)! ( m    )2 0 

3. The average time a unit spends in the waiting line or

being served, in the system

 ( /  )m 1 L
W  P  
( m  1)! ( m    ) 2 0
 

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 Multichannel Model, Poisson Arrivals,
Exponential Service Times (M/M/m)
4. The average number of customers or units in line
waiting for service

Lq  L 

5. The average time a unit spends in the waiting line
or being served, waiting for the service
1 Lq
Wq  W  
 
6. The utilization factor for the system, , the
probability the service facility is being used:


m
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 Arnold’s Muffler Shop Revisited
 Arnold wants to investigate opening a second
garage bay.
 He would hire a second worker who works at the
same rate as his first worker.
 The customer arrival rate remains the same.

1
P0  for m  
 n  m 1
1
n
 1  m
m
   
n!   
   
 n 0  m!    m  

1
P0   0.5
 1 21 n
 1  2  2(3)
2

     
 n 0 n!  3   2!  3  2(3)  2
 probability of 0 cars in the system
13-35
 Arnold’s Muffler Shop Revisited

 Average number of cars in the system

 ( /  ) m 
L P 
2 0
(m  1)!(m   ) 

2(3)(2 / 3) 2 1 2
L ( )   0.75
(1)![2(3)  2] 2 3
2

 Average time a car spends in the system

L 3
W  hour  22 1 minutes
 8 2
13-36
 Arnold’s Muffler Shop Revisited

 Average number of cars in the queue

 3 2 1
Lq  L      0.083
 4 3 12

 Average time a car spends in the queue

1 Lq 0.083
Wq  W     0.0415 hour  2 1 minutes
  2 2

13-37
 Arnold’s Muffler Shop Revisited
 Adding the second service bay reduces the
waiting time in line but will increase the service
cost as a second mechanic needs to be hired.
Total daily waiting cost = (8 hours per day)WqCw
= (8)(2)(0.0415)($50) = $33.20
Total daily service cost = (8 hours per day)mCs
= (8)(2)($15) = $240
 So the total cost of the system is

Total system cost = $33.20 + $240 = $273.20

 This is the cheapest option: open the second bay and

hire a second worker at the same $15 rate.
13-38
Effect of Service Level on Arnold’s
Operating Characteristics
LEVEL OF SERVICE
ONE TWO ONE FAST
OPERATING MECHANIC MECHANICS MECHANIC
CHARACTERISTIC =3  = 3 FOR BOTH =4
Probability that the system
0.33 0.50 0.50
is empty (P0)
Average number of cars in
2 cars 0.75 cars 1 car
the system (L)
Average time spent in the
60 minutes 22.5 minutes 30 minutes
system (W)
Average number of cars in
1.33 cars 0.083 car 0.50 car
the queue (Lq)
Average time spent in the
40 minutes 2.5 minutes 15 minutes
queue (Wq)

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 Constant Service Time Model (M/D/1)

 Constant service times are used when

customers or units are processed
according to a fixed cycle.
 The values for Lq, Wq, L, and W are always
less than they would be for models with
variable service time.

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 Constant Service Time Model (M/D/1)

1. Average length of the queue

2
Lq 
2 (    )

2. Average waiting time in the queue


Wq 
2 (    )

13-41
 Constant Service Time Model (M/D/1)

3. Average number of customers in the system


L  Lq 


4. Average time in the system

1
W  Wq 


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 Finite Population Model
(M/M/1 with Finite Source)
 When the population of potential customers is
limited, the models are different.
 There is now a dependent relationship between
the length of the queue and the arrival rate.
 The model has the following assumptions:
1. There is only one server.
2. The population of units seeking service is
finite.
3. Arrivals follow a Poisson distribution and
service times are exponentially distributed.
4. Customers are served on a first-come, first-
served basis.
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 Finite Population Model
(M/M/1 with Finite Source)
Equations for the finite population model:
Using  = mean arrival rate,  = mean service
rate, and N = size of the population, the
operating characteristics are:

[Link] that the system is empty:

1
P0  n
N
N!   
  
n  0 ( N  n )!   

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 Finite Population Model
(M/M/1 with Finite Source)
2. Average length of the queue:

  
Lq  N    1  P0 
  

3. Average number of customers (units) in the system:

L  Lq   1  P0 

4. Average waiting time in the queue:

Lq
Wq 
( N  L)

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 Finite Population Model
(M/M/1 with Finite Source)
5. Average time in the system:

1
W  Wq 


6. Probability of n units in the system:

n
N!   
Pn    P0 for n  0,1,..., N
 N  n !   

13-46
 Department of Commerce

 The Department of Commerce has five printers

that each need repair after about 20 hours of work.
 Breakdowns will follow a Poisson distribution.
 The technician can service a printer in an average
of about 2 hours, following an exponential
distribution.
 Therefore:
 = 1/20 = 0.05 printer/hour
 = 1/2 = 0.50 printer/hour

13-47
 Department of Commerce Example

1. 1
P0  5 n
 0.564
5!  0.05 

n0 ( 5  n )!

 0 . 5



2.  0.05  0.5 
Lq  5    1  P0   0.2 printer
 0.05 

3. L  0.2   1  0.564   0.64 printer

13-48
 Department of Commerce Example

4. 0 .2 0 .2
Wq    0.91 hour
(5  0.64 ) 0.05  0.22

1
5. W  0.91   2.91 hours
0.50
If printer downtime costs $120 per hour and the
technician is paid $25 per hour, the total cost is:
Total (Average number of printers down)
hourly = (Cost per downtime hour)
cost + Cost per technician hour

= (0.64)($120) + $25 = $101.80

13-49