STATISTICS and

PROBABILITY
Module 2 :Computing Probabilities
Probability of an Event
is the numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur.

where is the number of the elements in the event and is the number of the elements in the sample space.

Properties of Computing Probabilities

1. The probability of an event is always a value between and including 0 and 1. .
2. The sum of the probabilities of all value of the random variable must be equal to 1.

Example 1 : If you flip two coins, find the probability that result is “both heads” ?
Solution 1 : Count the possible outcomes of the experiment, that is {HH, HT, TH, TT}.

𝑛( 𝐸) 1
𝑃 ( 𝐸 )= = This can be written also as 0.25 or 25%.
𝑛(𝑆) 4
Example 2: If a card is selected at random from standard deck of 52 cards. What is the probability of
getting a “Black Jack”
Solution 2: Since there are 2 black jack in standard deck of cards such as “jack of
spades” and jack of clubs”. Thus,

𝑛( 𝐸) 2 1 This can be written also as 0.038 or 3.8% of

𝑃 ( 𝐸 )= = = chance.
Example 3:
𝑛(𝑆) 52 26
Moira collects stamps from different countries. She has 10 stamps from china, 5 from Thailand, 3
from France, 6 from USA, and 1 from Venezuela. Her sister Lindsay borrows one stamp for a
school assignment. What is the probability that the stamp Lindsay borrows is from Thailand?

Solution 3:

𝑛( 𝐸) 5 1
𝑃 ( 𝐸 )= = = This can be written also as 0.2 or 20% of chance.
𝑛(𝑆) 25 5
 Multiplication Rule of Probability: Independent Events (with
replacement)
Two events A and B are independent if the outcome of the first does not affect the outcome of the other. In
genera, the probability of event A followed by another independent event B occurring is given by

Note that this rule may be extended for a sequence with more than two elements.

Example 4: A coin is tossed and then a die is rolled. What is the probability of getting a head followed by a 4?
Solution 4: Let A be the event of getting a head from tossing a coin and B the event of getting a 4 from rolling a
die. Then,

𝑃 ( 𝐴)=
1
and 𝑃 ( 𝐵 ) =
1
2 6
1 1 1
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )= 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) × 𝑃 ( 𝐵 )=¿ × =
2 6 12
This can be written also as 0.083 or 8.3%
of chance.
Example 5: A pair of dice is rolled thrice. What is the probability of getting doubles in the three rolls?
Solution Let A be the event of getting doubles in the first roll, B the event of getting doubles in the second
5: roll, and C the event of getting doubles in the third roll.
(1,1), (2,2), (3,3), (4,4), (5,5) and
(6,6)

6 1
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) = = 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩𝐶 )=𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) × 𝑃 ( 𝐵 ) × 𝑃 (𝐶)
36 6 1 1 1
6 1 ¿ × ×
𝑃 ( 𝐵 )= = 6 6 6
36 6 1
6 1 ¿
216
𝑃 ( 𝐶 )= =
36 6
Example 6: There are 7 green, 4 blue, and 9 red marbles in a box. A marble is drawn at random and after
recording its color, the marble is returned to the box. Another marble is then drawn. What is the
probability that both marbles are red?
Solution
Let A be the event that the marble in the first draw is red and B the event that the marble in the
6:
second draw is also red.

9 9
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) = and 𝑃 ( 𝐵 )=
20 20
9 9 81
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )= 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) × 𝑃 ( 𝐵¿ )20 × 20 =¿
400

This can be written also as 0.2025 or 20.25% of chance.

 Multiplication Rule of Probability: Dependent Events (without
replacement)
If events A and B are dependent event such that the outcome of A affects the outcome of B, then the probability that
“event A followed by event B” happens is

where is the probability that event A happens and is the probability that event B happens after A happened.
Example 7: Josiah draws 2 cards at random from a standard deck of 52 cards without replacement. What is the
probability of getting 2 ace cards.
Solution 7: Let A be the event of choosing an ace on the first draw an B the event of choosing another ace on the
second.
4 1and 3 1
𝑃 ( 𝐴)= = 𝑃 ( 𝐵∨𝐴 ) = =
52 13 51 17
1 1 1
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )= 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) × 𝑃 ( 𝐵∨ 𝐴13
)=¿ × 17 = 221
Example 8: Gabriel has a candy box containing 9 chocolate candies and 12 lollipops. If he chooses 2 of them
at random, what is the probability that he gets 2 lollipops?

Solution
8: 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )= 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) × 𝑃 ( 𝐵∨ 𝐴 )
12 4 11
𝑃 ( 𝐴)= = and 𝑃 ( 𝐵∨ 𝐴 )=
21 7 20
4 11 44 11
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 )= 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) × 𝑃 ( 𝐵∨ 𝐴¿ )7 × 20 =¿140 ¿ 35

This can be written also as 0.3142 or 31.42% of chance.

Addition Rule of Probability: Mutually Exclusive Events
The Probability of a single event that is made up of two different mutually exclusive events is given by

Example 9: A card is drawn at random from a standard deck of cards. What is the probability that the card
drawn is an ace or a king.
Solution 9: Let A be the event of drawing an ace and B the event of drawing a king.

4 1 4
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) = = and 𝑃 ( 𝐵 )= =
1
52 13 52 13
1 1 2
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 )= 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝐵 )13
=¿ + 13 = 13
This can be written also as 0.1538 or 15.38% of chance.
Example 10:A pair of dice is rolled. What is the probability that the sum is 5 or 6 ?

Solution 10: The sum of 5 are (1,4), (2,3), (3,2) and (4,1).
The sum of 6 are (1,5), (2,4), (4,2), (3,3) and (5,1).

4 1 5
𝑃 ( 𝐴)= = and 𝑃 ( 𝐵 )=
36 9 36
1 5 1
𝑃 ( 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 )= 𝑃 ( 𝐴 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝐵¿) + =¿ 4
9 36
This can be written also as 0.25 or 25% of chance.
 Addition Rule of Probability: Inclusive Events
If events A and B are given such that A and B have common outcomes, then the probability of the events “ A or B” is
determined by

Example 11: If a card is selected at random from a standard deck of cards, what is the probability that the
card drawn is a red card or a face card.

12 3 𝑃 ( 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 ) = 6 = 3
Solution 11:
26 1
( )
𝑃 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 = = 𝑃 ( 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 )= =
52 2 52 13 52 26
𝑃 ( 𝑟𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑∪ 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 )= 𝑃 ( 𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 ) + 𝑃 ( 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 ) − 𝑃 (𝑟𝑒𝑑𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑 ∩ 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑟𝑑)
1 3 3 8
¿ + − ¿
2 13 26 13

This can be written also as 0.6153 or 61.53% of chance.