Is earth warming?

4:36

The Greenhouse Effect

and Climate Change
Is the earth warming? And if so,
1. Are humans responsible?
2. How fast and how much will the
warming be?
3. What changes will result from
the warming?
It is he who made the earth by his
power, who established the world by
his wisdom, and by his understanding
stretched out the heavens. When he
utters his voice, there is a tumult of
waters in the heavens, and he makes
the mist rise from the ends of the
earth. He makes lightning for the
rain, and he brings forth the wind
from his storehouses. Jeremiah
10:12-13
1901-2017
 It’s not just in the U.S.
World Temperatures
Change can be unpredictable!

You can’t use weather events to make

claims about climate.
Reliability: How do we
measure temperature?
 Thermometers
 Mercury thermometer invented in 1714
 Reliable and common by 1860. (the instrumental
period)
 Standardization increased over time
 Temperature readings taken from
 Land
 Sea surface (ships, buoys)
 Atmosphere (satellites)
Examining trends
What is the Greenhouse Effect?
Video 2:02

 1. Solar radiation penetrates atmosphere to

reach earth’s surface
 2. Earth’s surface re-radiates some of this
energy (most in infrared spectrum) back out
 3. Gases and water vapor in atmosphere
capture and re-radiate some infrared back
to earth
 What is the Greenhouse Effect?

 Radiative Forcing is an
atmospheric process that
keeps Earth warm through
the greenhouse effect.

 Net difference between

radiation coming into the
lower atmosphere and
radiation going out.
 “Greenhouse gases” absorb
infrared waves as they
reradiate from Earth’s
surface and try to leave
the atmosphere.

A simplified diagram illustrating the greenhouse effect.

Source: IPCC, 1990
Mars: a planet with no
greenhouse effect
 Temperatures on Mars
average about -81 degrees
F. However, temperatures
range from around -220
degrees F. in the
wintertime at the poles, to
+70 degrees F. over the
Temperatures in the shade for Spirit
lower latitudes in the ranged from highs of about 35 degrees C.
summer. (95 degrees F.) in summer to lows of -90
degrees C. (-130 degrees F.) in winter. In
the background is a panoramic camera
image of sunset on Mars.

Source: [Link]
Venus: a planet with an extreme
greenhouse effect
 Venus has a thick
atmosphere made up almost
entirely of carbon dioxide.
 It appears that the surface
temperature ranges from
about 820 degrees to nearly
Nightside surface temperature of Venus
900 degrees F. The average with spatial resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°.
surface temperature is 847 Surface temperature retrievals are based
degrees F., hot enough to on IR1 data from Akatsuki mission
between July 21, 2016 and December 7,
melt lead. 2016. White areas indicate either data is
absent or erroneous. High altitude regions
are relatively colder than low altitude
regions (Data source:
Source: [Link] [Link]
tsuki/[Link]
)6,25.
These Greenhouse Gases include

Water vapor (H2O)

Carbon dioxide (CO2)
methane (CH4)
nitrous oxide (N2O)
Without them, Earth’s temperature
would be well below freezing.
Chlorinated Fluorocarbons also act as
greenhouse gases
Image source: NOAA.
The Carbon Cycle
We are altering the system
Annual atmospheric carbon dioxide (NOAA) and annual global temperature
anomaly (GISS) from 1880 to 2017 (source: NASA [Link]
Changes in CO2 Concentration
at Mauna Loa, 1955 - 2012
 Human Activities that contribute
to Increased Greenhouse Gases

 CO2 - deforestation, fossil fuel burning

 CH4 - increased landfills, increased number
of ruminants (e.g. cattle)
 CFCs - refrigerants, plastics, solvents (now
mostly banned)
 N2O - fertilizers, animal wastes
Past Variations in Atmospheric CO2

 High concentrations before evolution of land

plants
 Between 100 - 400 ppm over the past
20,000,000 years (Pearson and Palmer, 2000).
 For the past 2000 years, concentrations of CO2
remained between 270 and 290 ppm.
…Until the Industrial Revolution

Most recent projections from the IPCC

are for CO2 levels reaching
 500 ppm in 2050
 > 700-1000 ppm by 2100.

due to massive human perturbation of

the Carbon Cycle.
 Human Perturbation of the
Global Carbon Cycle
Each year, human
activity adds 40
billion tons of CO2 to
atmosphere.
Total mass of the Earth’s a
tmosphere
, is a staggering 5 x 1015—5
quadrillion— tons! By
mass, this extra CO2 is only
about 0.0008 percent of Oil Rig
© Kirke King/ U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
the Earth’s total air. So
how could it be a big deal?
 Humans remove organic carbon
from the Earth’s crust at a rate
more than 100 times greater than
the storage of organic carbon in
newly-formed marine sediments.

We have
made no
counter-
balancing
changes to
remove CO2
from the
Golden Gate Bridge
atmosphere.
2000, Albert P. Bekker © California Academy of
Sciences
 CO2 emissions projected from fossil fuel combustion under different models (IPCC 2016).

What will these changes bring?

 Complicating the picture
 Aerosols can warm or cool
 El Chichon: Mexico, 1982. 7 to 10 million tons of SO2 and
particulates 24 km into the atmosphere
 Mount Pinatubo: Philippines, 1991, estimated 20 million tons of
sulfur dioxide and ash particles blasted more 20 km high into the
atmosphere.
Aerosol effects on
temperature
 Black carbon warms the atmosphere
but cools the surface!

 But if it results in a layer of dark

residue on light surfaces (snow, ice), it
increases absorption and warms the
surface
 Complicating the picture
 Natural variations in climate
 Solar output
 Sunspots (solar maximum and minimum)
 Solar winds
 Complicating the picture
 Natural variations in climate
 Ocean Influence
 Absorption of CO2
 Circulation

 El Niño Southern Oscillation

 Complicating the picture
 Natural variations in climate
 Milankovitch Cycles: 3 variations
 Axial wobble
 Tilt variations
 Orbit changes

Animation

Axial Tilt: We are currently in a decreasing obliquity phase, which under normal circumstances,
without the excess GHG’s, would cool the climate system.
Wobble: Currently the southern hemisphere is at perihelion, so they are enjoying warmer
summers, but cooler winters, which likely contributes to snowfall in the hemisphere
 So what effect are all these
natural factors having? Bloomberg
 How do we come up with these data?
 The Past
 Ice cores
 Fossil pollen
 Lake and ocean sediments
 Glaciers

 The Present
 Direct measurements
 Sea surface and stratosphere
 The Future
 Models
Complications both natural and human
Problems in predicting CO2 concentration
changes
 Changes in rates of sequestering
Problems in predicting CO2 concentration
changes
 Changes in rates of sequestering

 Changes in photosynthesis and respiration

Many Plant Species Show an Initial Increase
in Photosynthesis under Increased CO2
Problems in predicting CO2 concentration changes
 Changes in vegetation patterns
 Other consequences of
increased warming
 Changes in precipitation patterns
 Changes in species distributions, phenology
 Extreme weather?
 Loss of glaciers
 Oceans
 Rising sea levels
 Acidification
 Phytoplankton article
Global Warming will Change
Distributions of Species
 Consequences of increased
warming to
 Agriculture
 Yield changes
 Crop ranges
 Forestry
 Increased production?
 Fire, pests
 Health
 Economics
 What groups of people will be impacted most?
Temperature
changes not
expected to
be uniform
 So what do we do about it?

 Nothing? (BAU)
 Mitigate?
 Reduce emissions
 Carbon capture and storage
 Adapt?
 Government Involvement?
 Treaties
 UnitedNations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) 1992.
 Kyoto Protocol (1997)
 ParisAgreement - new global climate change agreement
covering all UNFCCC countries (2015)
Local to Federal Policies
 Carbon neutral policies
 Penalties to carbon emitters
 Incentives for “green” projects
 Carbon Offsets
 Cap-and-Trade
 Carbon Tax
Extreme Mitigation? Geoengineering
Effects/Impacts of Policies & Economics
 CO2 emissions have flattened
 Why is this?

Advanced Economies (orange) versus Rest of the World (yellow) (Image: IEA)
But there is wide disparity
among countries
 Policies & Economics

So what’s causing the reduction in emissions?

1. Switching from coal to natural gas
2. Increases in renewable energy (and nuclear)

Is this enough?
Projections
 From 2009 Copenhagen meeting
 Increase of <2°C will require CO2 emissions to be
 40-70% lower in 2050 than what they were in 2010
0 by 2100
 Current commitments?
 Bjorn Lomborg estimates from 2015 Paris Accord
 EPA’sClean Power Plan regulation "would reduce the temperature
increase in 2100 by just 0.023 degrees Fahrenheit," according to the
United Nation's climate model.
 Obama's future pledges of carbon dioxide reductions would only
raise that total to 0.057 degrees.
 All countries, would only be a 0.3°F decline by 2100
 How do these square? And…
How does that square with this graph from the IPCC?

Observed and projected changes in global average temperature under four emissions pathways. The vertical
bars at right show likely ranges in temperature by the end of the century, while the lines show projections
averaged across a range of climate models. Changes are relative to the 1986-2005 average. Source: IPCC, 2013
 What price are we willing to
pay to reduce emissions?
 Annual costs of promises President Obama signed on under the Paris
climate agreement would be $50 billion in 2030 ($140/person)
 A recent Washington Post survey found that a majority of Americans
would vote against a $24 annual climate tax on their electricity
bills
 During 2020 election, President Biden promised to spend $2 trillion
over four years on climate policies—equivalent to $1,500 per person
per year
 Biden’s current promise is 100% carbon emission reduction by 2050
 The annual cost of trying to hit Mr. Biden’s target will rise to $4.4
trillion by 2050. That’s more than everything the federal
government is projected to take in this year in tax revenue. It
breaks down to $11,300 per person per year, or almost 500 times
more than what a majority of Americans is willing to pay.
What price are we willing to pay
to reduce emissions? Interview Video [Link]
 Lomborg again,
 “The cost of the Paris climate pact is likely to run to 1
to 2 trillion dollars every year, based on estimates
produced by the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum and
the Asia Modeling Exercise”
 Who will pay?
 2019 United States Budget
 GDP: $21.4T
 Total Receipts: $3.5T
 Total Outlays: $4.4T
 Total Surplus or Deficit as Percentage of GDP: -4.6%
[Link]
What impact will this have on
climate?
 If the United States went carbon-neutral
tomorrow, the standard United Nations climate
model shows the difference by the end of the
century would be a reduction in temperature of
0.3 degree Fahrenheit.
 Why such a small impact?
 The U.S. will make up an ever-smaller share of
emissions as the populations of China, India and
Africa grow and get richer.
So what do we do?

 There is no easy answer

 But people don’t like difficult answers