‫بسم هللا الرحمن الرحیم‬

Wastewater Engineering and Sanitation

Kandahar University

Engineering Faculty

Water and Environmental Engineering Department

Lecture # 4 Population Forecasting by Various Methods

March/5/2019
2 Contents
• Introduction

• Arithmetical Increase Method

• Geometrical Increase Method

• Incremental Increase Method

• Graphical Method

• Comparative Graphical Method

• Master Plan Method

• Logistic Curve Method

3 Introduction

 Design is based on the projected population of a particular city.

 Any underestimated value will make system inadequate for the purpose

intended, similarly overestimated value will make it costly

 change in the population of the city over the years occurs, and the system

should be designed taking into account of the population at the end of the

design period.
4
Factors affecting changes in population

1. increase due to births

2. decrease due to deaths
3. increase/ decrease due to migration
4. increase due to annexation

 The present and past population record for the city can be obtained from the register
population records.

 After collecting these population figures, the population at the end of design period is
predicted using various methods as suitable for that city considering the growth pattern
followed by the city.
5 1. Arithmetical Increase Method

This method is suitable for large and old city with considerable development. If it is
used for small, average or moderately new cities, it will give low result than actual
value.

In this method the average increase in population per decade is calculated from the past
survey reports.
P n = P + n.C
Where, Pn is the population after n decade and P is present population
6 Example:1

Predict the population for the year 2021, 2031, and 2041
from the following population data.

Year 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Population 8,58,545 10,15,672 12,01,553 16,91,538 20,77,820 25,85,862

7
Solution:

P n = P + n.C
Population in year 2021 is, P2021 = 2585862 + 345463 x 1 = 2931325
Similarly, P2031 = 2585862 + 345463 x 2 = 3276788
P2041 = 2585862 + 345463 x 3 = 3622251
8 2. GEOMETRICAL INCREASE METHOD

• In this method the percentage increase in population from decade to decade is

assumed to remain constant.
• Geometric mean increase is used to find out the future increment in
population. Since this method gives higher values and hence should be
applied for a new industrial town at the beginning of development for only
few decades.
• The population at the end of nth decade ‘Pn’ can be estimated as:
Pn = P (1+ IG/100) n Where, IG = geometric mean (%)
P = Present population N = no. of decades.
9 Example : 2

Considering data given in example 1 predict the population for the year
2021, 2031, and 2041using geometrical progression method.

Year Population Increment Geometrical increase Rate of

growth

1961 858545 –
1971 1015672 157127 (157127/858545) = 0.18
1981 1201553 185881 (185881/1015672) = 0.18
1991 1691538 489985 (489985/1201553) = 0.40
2001 2077820 386282 (386282/1691538) = 0.23
2011 2585862 508042 (508042/2077820) = 0.24
10 Example Cont….

Geometric mean IG = (0.18 x 0.18 x 0.40 x 0.23 x 0.24)1/5 = 0.235 i.e. 23.5%

Pn = P (1+ IG/100) n
Population in year 2021 is, P2021 = 2585862 x (1+ 0.235)1 = 3193540

Similarly for year 2031 and 2041 can be calculated by,

P2031 = 2585862 x (1+ 0.235)2 = 3944021

P2041 = 2585862 x (1+ 0.235)3 = 4870866

11 3. Incremental Increase Method

 This method is modification of arithmetical increase method and it is suitable

for an average size town under normal condition where the growth rate is
found to be in increasing order.

 While adopting this method the increase in increment is considered for

calculating future population.

 The incremental increase is determined for each decade from the past
population and the average value is added to the present population along with
the average rate of increase.
 3. Incremental Increase Method Cont….
12

Hence, population after nth decade is

Pn = P+ n.X + {n (n+1)/2}.Y
Where, Pn = Population after nth decade

X = Average increase

Y = Incremental increase
13 Example : 3

Considering data given in example 1 predict the population for the year 2021, 2031, and 2041
using incremental increase method.
Year Population Increase (X) Incremental increase (Y)
1961 858545 - -
1971 1015672 157127 -
1981 1201553 185881 +28754
1991 1691538 489985 +304104
2001 2077820 386282 -103703
2011 2585862 508042 +121760
Total 1727317 350915
Average 345463 87729
14
Example Continue

Pn = P+ n.X + {n (n+1)/2}.Y

Population in year 2021 is, P2021 = 2585862 + (345463 x 1) + {(1

(1+1))/2} x 87729 = 3019054

For year 2031 P2031 = 2585862 + (345463 x 2) + {((2 (2+1)/2)}x

87729= 3539975

P2041=2585862 + (345463 x 3) + {((3 (3+1)/2)}x 87729 = 4148625

15
GRAPHICAL METHOD

• In this method, the populations of last few decades are correctly plotted to a
suitable scale on graph.

• The population curve is smoothly extended for getting future population

• This extension should be done carefully and it requires proper experience and
judgment.

• The best way of applying this method is to extend the curve by comparing
with population curve of some other similar cities having the similar growth
condition.
16
Graphical method continue
17
Comparative Graphical Method

• In this method the census populations of cities already developed under similar
conditions are plotted.

• The curve of past population of the city under consideration is plotted on the
same graph.

• The curve is extended carefully by comparing with the population curve of

some similar cities having the similar condition of growth.

• The advantage of this method is that the future population can be predicted
from the present population even in the absent of some of the past census
report.
18
Example: 4

The populations of a new city X given for decades 1970, 1980, 1990 and 2000 were

32,000; 38,000; 43,000 and 50,000, respectively. The cities A, B, C and D were

developed in similar conditions as that of city X. It is required to estimate the

population of the city X in the years 2010 and 2020. The population of cities A, B, C

and D of different decades were given below:

19 Example Cont…

I. City A: 50,000; 62,000; 72,000 and 87,000 in 1960, 1972, 1980 and
1990, respectively.

II. City B: 50,000; 58,000; 69,000 and 76,000 in 1962, 1970, 1981 and
1988, respectively.

III. City C: 50,000; 56,500; 64,000 and 70,000 in 1964, 1970, 1980 and
1988, respectively.

IV. City D: 50,000; 54,000; 58,000 and 62,000 in 1961, 1973, 1982 and
1989, respectively.
20
Example Cont…

Population curves for the cities A, B, C, D and X are plotted. Then an average

mean curve is also plotted by dotted line as shown in the figure. The population

curve X is extended beyond 50,000 matching with the scattered mean curve.

From the curve, the populations obtained for city X are 58,000 and 68,000 in

year 2010 and 2020.

21
 Master Plan Method
22

 The big and metropolitan cities are generally not developed in random manner, but
are planned and regulated by local bodies according to master plan.
 The master plan is prepared for next 25 to 30 years for the city. According to the
master plan the city is divided into various zones such as residence, commerce and
industry.
 The population densities are fixed for various zones in the master plan. From this
population density total water demand and wastewater generation for that zone can be
worked out. So by this method it is very easy to access precisely the design
population.
23
Logistic Curve Method

This method is used when the growth rate of population due to births, deaths and
migrations takes place under normal situation and it is not subjected to any
extraordinary changes like epidemic, war, earth quake or any natural disaster etc. the
population follow the growth curve characteristics of living things within limited space
and economic opportunity.

If the population of a city is plotted with respect to time, the curve so obtained under
normal condition is look like S-shaped curve and is known as logistic curve.
24
25
Logistic Curve Method cont…

The curve shows an early growth JK at an increasing rate i.e. geometric growth or log

growth, ∝P, the transitional middle curve KM follows arithmetic increase i.e.

constant. For later growth MN the rate of change of population is proportional to

difference between saturation population and existing population, i.e. ∝(Ps - P). A

mathematical solution for this logistic curve JN, which can be represented by an

autocatalytic first order equation, is given by

 Logistic Curve Method cont…
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 Logistic Curve Method cont…
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 Logistic Curve Method cont…
28

If only three pairs of characteristic values P0, P1, P2 at times t = t0= 0, t1, t2 = 2t1

ranging over the past record are chosen, the saturation population Ps and

constant m and n can be estimated by the following equation, as follows:

 Example: 5
29

The population of a city in three consecutive years i.e. 1991, 2001 and 2011 is
80,000; 250,000 and 480,000, respectively. Determine (a) The saturation
population, (b) The equation of logistic curve, (c) The expected population in
2021.
Solution: It is given that
P0 = 80,000 t0 = 0

P1 = 250,000 t1 = 10 years

P2 = 480,000 t2 = 20 years
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Solution continue
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Solution continue
32

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