Basic Probability

Concepts & Applications

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan Chap 2-1

 Important Terms
 Random Experiment – a process leading to an
uncertain outcome

 A coin is thrown
 A consumer is asked which of two products he
or she prefers
 The daily change in an index of stock market
prices is observed
Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-2
 Important Terms
 Sample Space - Collection of all possible
outcomes
e.g.: All six faces of a die:

e.g.: All 52 cards

a deck of
bridge cards

3
Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-3
 Important Terms

Event – any subset of basic outcomes from the

sample space

Simple Event
Outcome With 1 Characteristic
Red card from a deck of bridge cards
Ace card from a deck of bridge cards

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-4

 Important Terms

Joint Event
2 Events Occurring Simultaneously

A and B, (AB):
Red, ace card from a bridge deck

Male, over age 20

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-5

 Important Terms
Compound Event
One or Another Event Occurring
D or E, (DE):
 Ace or Red card from bridge deck

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-6

 Important Terms
(continued)

 Intersection of Events – If A and B are two

events in a sample space S, then the
intersection, A ∩ B, is the set of all outcomes in
S that belong to both A and B

A AB B

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-7

 Important Terms
(continued)

 A and B are Mutually Exclusive Events if they

have no basic outcomes in common
 i.e., the set A ∩ B is empty

A B

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-8

 Important Terms
(continued)

 Union of Events – If A and B are two events in a

sample space S, then the union, A U B, is the
set of all outcomes in S that belong to either
A or B
S The entire shaded
area represents
A B AUB

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-9

 Important Terms
(continued)

 Events E1, E2, … Ek are Collectively Exhaustive

events if E1 U E2 U . . . U Ek = S
 i.e., the events completely cover the sample space

 The Complement of an event A is the set of all

basic outcomes in the sample space that do not
belong to A. The complement is denoted A
S
A
A

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-10

 Examples
Let the Sample Space be the collection of all
possible outcomes of rolling one die:

S = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]

Let A be the event “Number rolled is even”

Let B be the event “Number rolled is at least 4”
Then
A = [2, 4, 6] and B = [4, 5, 6]
Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-11
 Examples
(continued)

S = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] A = [2, 4, 6] B = [4, 5, 6]

Complements:
A  [1, 3, 5] B  [1, 2, 3]

Intersections:
A  B  [4, 6] A  B  [5]
Unions:
A  B  [2, 4, 5, 6]
A  A  [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6]  S
Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-12
 Examples
(continued)

S = [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6] A = [2, 4, 6] B = [4, 5, 6]

 Mutually exclusive:
 A and B are not mutually exclusive
 The outcomes 4 and 6 are common to both

 Collectively exhaustive:
 A and B are not collectively exhaustive
 A U B does not contain 1 or 3

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-13

 Probability

 Probability – the chance that 1 Certain

an uncertain event will occur
(always between 0 and 1)

0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 For any event A .5

0 Impossible

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-14

 Assessing Probability
 There are three approaches to assess the
probability of an uncertain event:

1. classical probability
NA number of outcomes that satisfy the event
probability of event A  
N total number of outcomes in the sample space

 Assumes all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to

occur

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-15

 Assessing Probability
Three approaches (continued)
2. relative frequency probability
nA number of events in the population that satisfy event A
probabilit y of event A  
n total number of events in the population
 the limit of the proportion of times that an event A occurs in a large number of
trials, n

3. subjective probability
an individual opinion or belief about the probability of occurrence

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-16

 Probability Postulates
1. If A is any event in the sample space S, then
0  P(A)  1
2. Let A be an event in S, and let Oi denote the basic
outcomes. Then
P(A)   P(Oi )
A

(the notation means that the summation is over all the basic outcomes in A)

3. P(S) = 1
Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-17
 Probability Rules

 The Complement rule:

P(A)  1 P(A) i.e., P(A)  P(A)  1

 The Addition rule:

 The probability of the union of two events is

P(A  B)  P(A)  P(B)  P(A  B)

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-18

 Addition Rule Example

Consider a standard deck of 52 cards, with four suits:

♥♣♦♠
Let event A = card is an Ace
Let event B = card is from a red suit

Find P(A or B)?

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-19

 Addition Rule Example
(continued)

P(Red U Ace) = P(Red) + P(Ace) - P(Red ∩ Ace)

= 26/52 + 4/52 - 2/52 = 28/52

Don’t count
the two red
Color aces twice!
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-20

 Counting the Possible Outcomes

 Use the Combinations formula to determine the

number of combinations of n things taken k at a
time

n!
C n
k
k! (n  k)!
 where
 n! = n(n-1)(n-2)…(1)
 0! = 1 by definition

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-21

 Example

 The sample space contains 5 A’s and 7 B’s.

What is the probability that a randomly
selected set of 2 will include 1 A and 1 B?
 Sol:
C C
5 7
P (1A & 1B )  1
12
1
C2
5  7 35
P (1A & 1B )    0.53
66 66
Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-22
 Practice Questions
Q # 1: The sample space contains 6 red and 4 green marbles.
What is the probability that a randomly selected set of 3 will
include 1 Red & 2 Green marbles.
Ans: 36/120
Q # 2: ABC Inc. is hiring managers to till four key positions.
The candidates are five men and three women. Assuming that
every combination of men and women is equally likely to be
chosen, what is the probability that at least one woman will be
selected?
Ans: 13/14
Hint: A: at least one woman is selected
Use complement law

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-23

 Conditional Probability
 A conditional probability is the probability of one
event, given that another event has occurred:

P(A  B) The conditional

P(A | B)  probability of A given
P(B) that B has occurred

P(A  B) The conditional

P(B | A)  probability of B given
P(A) that A has occurred

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-24

 Conditional Probability Example

 Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air

conditioning (AC) and 40% have a CD player
(CD). 20% of the cars have both.

 What is the probability that a car has a CD

player, given that it has AC ?

i.e., we want to find P(CD | AC)

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-25

 Conditional Probability Example
(continued)
 Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air conditioning
(AC) and 40% have a CD player (CD).
20% of the cars have both.
CD No CD Total
AC .2 .5 .7
No AC .2 .1 .3
Total .4 .6 1.0

P(CD  AC) .2
P(CD | AC)    .2857
P(AC) .7
Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-26
 Conditional Probability Example
(continued)
 Given AC, we only consider the top row (70% of the cars). Of these,
20% have a CD player. 20% of 70% is 28.57%.

CD No CD Total
AC .2 .5 .7
No AC .2 .1 .3
Total .4 .6 1.0

P(CD  AC) .2
P(CD | AC)    .2857
P(AC) .7

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-27

 Multiplication Rule

 Multiplication rule for two events A and B:

P(A  B)  P(A | B) P(B)

 also

P(A  B)  P(B | A) P(A)

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-28

 Question

If a card is selected, at random, from a deck of 52

cards, what is the probability that the card is an ace

of red color?

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-29

 Multiplication Rule Example
P(Red ∩ Ace) = P(Red| Ace)P(Ace)
 2  4  2
    
 4  52  52
number of cards that are red and ace 2
 
total number of cards 52

Color
Type Red Black Total
Ace 2 2 4
Non-Ace 24 24 48
Total 26 26 52
Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-30
 Statistical Independence
 Two events are statistically independent
if and only if:
P(A  B)  P(A) P(B)
 Events A and B are independent when the probability of one
event is not affected by the other event
 If A and B are independent, then

P(A | B)  P(A) if P(B)>0

P(B | A)  P(B) if P(A)>0

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-31

 Statistical Independence Example
 Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air conditioning
(AC) and 40% have a CD player (CD).
20% of the cars have both.
CD No CD Total
AC .2 .5 .7
No AC .2 .1 .3
Total .4 .6 1.0

 Are the events AC and CD statistically independent?

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-32

 Statistical Independence
 Example: Television Ads
• Out of a target audience of 2,000,000, ad A reaches
500,000 viewers, B reaches 300,000 viewers and both
ads reach 100,000 viewers.

500, 000 300, 000

P ( A)   .25 P( B)   .15
2, 000, 000 2, 000, 000
100, 000
P( A  B)   .05 • What is P(A | B)?
2, 000, 000
P( A  B) .05 .3333 or 33%
P( A | B)    .30
P( B) .15
Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-33
 Independent Events
 Example: Television Ads
• So, P(ad A) = .25
P(ad B) = .15
P(A  B) = .05
P(A | B) = .3333

• Are events A and B independent?

• P(A | B) = .3333 ≠ P(A) = .25

• P(A)P(B)=(.25)(.15)=.0375 ≠ P(A  B)=.05

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-34

 Practice Questions

Q:1 A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of

each outcome? What is the probability of rolling an even number?
of rolling an odd number?
Q:2 A single 6-sided die is rolled. What is the probability of
rolling a 2 or a 5?
Q:3 A glass jar contains 6 red, 5 green, 8 blue and 3 yellow
marbles. If a single marble is chosen at random from the jar, what
is the probability of choosing a red marble? a green marble? a
blue marble? a yellow marble?
Q:4 A glass jar contains 1 red, 3 green, 2 blue, and 4 yellow
marbles. If a single marble is chosen at random from the jar, what
is the probability that it is yellow or green?

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-35

 Practice Questions

Q:5 On New Year's Eve, the probability of a person having a

car accident is 0.09. The probability of a person driving while
intoxicated is 0.32 and probability of a person having a car
accident while intoxicated is 0.15. What is the probability of a
person driving while intoxicated or having a car accident?
Q:6 A single card is chosen at random from a standard deck of
52 playing cards. What is the probability of choosing a card that
is not a king?
Q:7 A card is chosen at random from a deck of 52 cards. It is
then replaced and a second card is chosen. What is the
probability of choosing a jack and an eight?

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-36

 Practice Questions

Q # 8: A hamburger chain found that 75% of all customers use

mustard, 80% use ketchup, and 65% use both.

[Link] is the probability that a customer will use at least one

of these? (0.90)

b. What is the probability that a ketchup user uses mustard?

(0.8125)

Q # 9: The probability of A is 0.70 and the probability of B is

0.80 and the probability of both is 0.50. What is the conditional
probability of A given B? Are A and B statistically
independent?
Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-37
 Practice Questions
Q # 10: (a) A fair die is rolled twice. Let A be the event of an odd
total and B the event of an ace on the first die. Verify that P(A/B)
= P(A)
(b) The probability that a man will be alive in 25 years is 3/5 and
that his wife will be alive in 25 years is 2/3. Find the probability
that (i) both will be alive (ii) At least one will be alive.

Q # 11: A music store owner finds that 25% of the

customers entering the store ask as assistant for help and 30% of
the customers make a purchase before leaving. It is also found that
20% of all customers both ask for assistance and make a purchase.
What is the probability that a customer does at least one of these
two things?
Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-38
 Practice Questions

Q # 12: The accompanying table shows proportions of

adults categorized to whether they are readers or non-readers
of newspapers and whether or not they voted in the last
election.
Voted Readers Non-readers
Yes 0.63 0.13
No 0.14 0.10

What is the probability that a randomly chosen adult from this

population who did not read newspaper did not vote?
(0.4348)

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-39

 Practice Questions

Q # 13: In a certain college, 4% of the men and 1% of

the women are taller than 6 feet. Furthermore 60% of the
students are women. Now, if a student is selected at random
and is taller than 6 feet, what is the probability that the
student is a woman?

Dr. Saud Ahmed Khan chap 2-40