Forecasting and budgeting
with Carl Weldon CEO, BAHA and Debra Adams, arena4|finance
Budgeting and forecasting some thoughts
Companies can take at least six months to prepare a budget and the other six months ignoring it.
Budget preparation average of 110 days start to finish (1995 Price Waterhouse study)
Managers view budgeting as an exercise in negotiation and trading of targets.. In a changing business environment what is the point of budgeting and planning? The value is in the process ?
The trouble with Budgets is
Seen as a Finance dictatorship with little local relevance Dependent on support (IT & Human) Detailed Unpredictable - iterations, direction
Planning your journey
Would you start out on a long journey to a new destination without a route map?
First some key questions!
Why are we in business? What are we trying to achieve ? Who is interested in how our business performs?
How much profit should we make?
As much as possible? More than last year? To meet or make more than budget? Depends on the sales? What about cash flow?
The Plan
Plan & Strategy
BUDGET
Sales Plan
Forecast
Control & Plan
Whos in the loop?
Shareholders Employees
Suppliers
Managers
Performance
Community Government
Customers ?
Steps in the planning process
Determine overall objectives Sales and marketing plan Determine rooms revenue Food and beverage revenue / Other revenue Cost of sales/Margins Payroll Other departmental expenses - variables Administration and other areas Fixed / Property costs Capital expenditure budget - effects Total budget
Lets get serious!
Predicting revenue Selling price Volume (New / Repeat customers) Sales mix Capacity management
Understanding the cost base Direct / Indirect costs Fixed and variable costs
Use of Technology - spreadsheets
Predicting Revenue
Factors which drive performance: Make a list of the trends, economic factors and competitive influences that you think will effect your business over the next twelve months. Note your assumptions clearly
How will these factors effect your business?
Government Demographics Socio-cultural Technology
Labour markets Competition Economy Suppliers
Understanding the cost structure
Direct and indirect costs
product or department orientated costs vary with sales Overhead costs
Variable costs and fixed costs
attempts to reflect how cost changes with volumes of business
Understanding how we performed
There are many potential causes for variances between actual and planned: economic, social, legal and political changes changes in competition changes in supply conditions changes in operating systems inefficiencies
Asking the right questions
What are we trying to do? What is stopping us from doing it? What can we do about it?
Do you know more about your business than when you started ?